TED2012
Rob Reid: The $8 billion iPod
Rob Rid (Rob Reid): iPod od 8 milijardi dolara
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Komičar Rob Rid otrkiva matematiku autorskih prava, sjajno novo polje studija zasnovano na stvarnim brojevima dobijenim od lobista i advokata industrije zabave.
Rob Reid - Author, entrepreneur
Rob Reid is a humor author and the founder of the company that created the music subscription service Rhapsody. Full bio
Rob Reid is a humor author and the founder of the company that created the music subscription service Rhapsody. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
The recent debate over copyright laws
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Nedavna debata oko zakona o autorskim pravima
00:17
like SOPA in the United States
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kao što je SOPA u Sjedinjenim Državama
00:19
and the ACTA agreement in Europe
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i ACTA ugovor u Evropi
00:21
has been very emotional.
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je bila vrlo emotivna.
00:23
And I think some dispassionate, quantitative reasoning
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Smatram da bi nepristrasno
i kvantitativno argumentovanje
i kvantitativno argumentovanje
00:26
could really bring a great deal to the debate.
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moglo da doprinese ovoj raspravi.
00:28
I'd therefore like to propose
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Želeo bih da predložim
00:30
that we employ, we enlist,
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da uposlimo, regrutujemo,
00:32
the cutting edge field of copyright math
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vrhunsko polje matematike zaštite autorskih prava
00:34
whenever we approach this subject.
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kada god pristupamo ovoj temi.
00:36
For instance, just recently
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Na primer, nedavno
00:38
the Motion Picture Association revealed
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Kinematografsko društvo Amerike je obelodanilo
00:40
that our economy loses 58 billion dollars a year
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da naša ekonomija gubi oko 58 milijardi dolara godišnje
00:43
to copyright theft.
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zbog piraterije.
00:46
Now rather than just argue about this number,
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Umesto da raspravljamo o ovom broju,
00:48
a copyright mathematician will analyze it
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matematičari koji analiziraju ovaj problem
00:51
and he'll soon discover that this money
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će shvatiti da je ovaj novac
00:53
could stretch from this auditorium
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moguće rastegnuti od ove sale
00:55
all the way across Ocean Boulevard
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preko bulevara Okean
00:57
to the Westin, and then to Mars ...
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do Vestina, pa do Marsa...
01:00
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
01:02
... if we use pennies.
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ukoliko koristimo penije.
01:05
Now this is obviously a powerful,
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Očigledno je da je ovo veoma moćno,
01:07
some might say dangerously powerful, insight.
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neki bi rekli opasno moćno.
01:10
But it's also a morally important one.
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Ali je takođe etički bitno.
01:12
Because this isn't just the hypothetical retail value
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Jer, to nije samo hipotetička maloprodajna vrednost
01:15
of some pirated movies that we're talking about,
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nekih piratizovanih filmova o kojima govorimo,
01:17
but this is actual economic losses.
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ovo je zapravo pravi ekonomski gubitak.
01:19
This is the equivalent
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Ovo je ekvivalent
01:21
to the entire American corn crop failing
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propasti proizvodnje useva,
01:23
along with all of our fruit crops,
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zajedno sa proizvodnjom voća,
01:26
as well as wheat, tobacco,
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pšenice, duvana,
01:28
rice, sorghum --
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riže, šećerne trske,
01:30
whatever sorghum is -- losing sorghum.
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štagod da je šećerna trska, cele Amerike.
01:34
But identifying the actual losses to the economy
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Određivanje tačnih ekonomskih gubitaka
01:37
is almost impossible to do
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je gotovo nemoguće
01:39
unless we use copyright math.
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ukoliko ne koristimo matematiku zaštite autorskih prava.
01:41
Now music revenues are down by about eight billion dollars a year
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Prihodi muzičke industrije se smanjuju za
8 milijardi svake godine
8 milijardi svake godine
01:44
since Napster first came on the scene.
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od kako se Nepster prvi put pojavio.
01:46
So that's a chunk of what we're looking for.
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To je deo onoga što tražimo.
01:49
But total movie revenues
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Ukupna zarada na filmovima
01:51
across theaters, home video and pay-per-view are up.
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preko bioskopa, kućnih videa
i plati-pa-gledaj je u porastu.
i plati-pa-gledaj je u porastu.
01:53
And TV, satellite and cable revenues are way up.
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Prihodi preko TV-a, satelitske i
kablovske TV su takođe u porastu.
kablovske TV su takođe u porastu.
01:56
Other content markets like book publishing and radio
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Druga tržišta kao izdavaštvo i radio
01:58
are also up.
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su takođe u porastu.
02:00
So this small missing chunk here
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Dakle, ovaj deo koji nedostaje
02:02
is puzzling.
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je zbunjujuć.
02:04
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
02:07
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
02:10
Since the big content markets
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Od kada su ovakva tržišta
02:12
have grown in line with historic norms,
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u porastu u smislu istorijskih normi,
02:14
it's not additional growth that piracy has prevented,
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piraterija nije sprečila dodatnu zaradu
02:17
but copyright math tells us
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ali matematika zaštite autorskih prava nam govori
02:19
it must therefore be foregone growth
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da to mora da bude prepušteni rast
02:22
in a market that has no historic norms --
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na tržištu koje nema istorijske norme,
02:24
one that didn't exist in the 90's.
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ono koje nije postojalo pre devedesetih.
02:26
What we're looking at here
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Ono što se dešava
02:28
is the insidious cost of ringtone piracy.
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jeste podmuklo bogaćenje na
02:30
(Laughter)
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piratizovanim zvucima za telefon.
(Smeh)
(Smeh)
02:34
50 billion dollars of it a year,
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50 milijardi dolara godišnje,
02:36
which is enough, at 30 seconds a ringtone,
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što je sasvim dovoljno, 30 sekundi po zvuku za telefon,
02:38
that could stretch from here
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može da se razvuče odavde
02:40
to Neanderthal times.
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do vremena Neandertalaca.
02:42
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
02:46
It's true.
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Istina je.
02:48
(Applause)
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(aplauz)
02:50
I have Excel.
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Ja posedujem Eksel.
02:52
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
02:54
The movie folks also tell us
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Filmski radnici nam takođe govore
02:56
that our economy loses
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da naša ekonomija gubi
02:58
over 370,000 jobs to content theft,
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preko 370 hiljada radnih mesta zbog piraterije,
03:01
which is quite a lot when you consider that, back in '98,
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a to je mnogo kada uzmete u obzir da je 1998.
03:04
the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated
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Biro za statistiku rada ukazao
03:06
that the motion picture and video industries
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da je kinematografija i industrija video igara
03:08
were employing 270,000 people.
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upošljavala oko 270 hiljada ljudi.
03:11
Other data has the music industry at about 45,000 people.
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Drugi podaci govore da muzička industrija
zapošljava oko 45 hiljada.
zapošljava oko 45 hiljada.
03:14
And so the job losses that came with the Internet
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Gubici radnih mesta koji dolaze sa pojavom Interneta
03:16
and all that content theft,
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i svom tom piraterijom,
03:18
have therefore left us with negative employment in our content industries.
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nam ostavljaju rast nezaposlenosti u
ovim industrijskim granama.
ovim industrijskim granama.
03:21
And this is just one of the many mind-blowing statistics
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Ovo je samo jedna od mnogih začuđujućih statistika
03:24
that copyright mathematicians have to deal with every day.
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sa kojima ovi matematičari moraju
da se suočavaju svaki dan.
da se suočavaju svaki dan.
03:26
And some people think that string theory is tough.
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Neki misle da je teorija struna teška.
03:29
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
03:31
Now this is a key number from the copyright mathematicians' toolkit.
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Ovo je ključna cifra za ove matematičare.
03:34
It's the precise amount of harm
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To je tačna količina štete
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that comes to media companies
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koju trpe medijske kuće
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whenever a single copyrighted song or movie
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kad god se jedna autorizovana pesma ili film
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gets pirated.
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piratizuju.
03:42
Hollywood and Congress derived this number mathematically
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Holivud i Kongres su ovaj broj dobili matematički
03:45
back when they last sat down to improve copyright damages
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poslednji put kada su procenjivali štetu zbog piraterije
03:48
and made this law.
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i kada su skovali ovaj zakon.
03:50
Some people think this number's a little bit large,
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Neki misle da je ovaj broj preterano velik,
03:52
but copyright mathematicians who are media lobby experts
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ali matematičari koji su eksperti medijskog lobija
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are merely surprised
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su potpuno iznenađeni
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that it doesn't get compounded for inflation every year.
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što se ovo ne komplikuje zbog inflacije.
04:00
Now when this law first passed,
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Kada je ovaj zakon prvi put donet,
04:02
the world's hottest MP3 player could hold just 10 songs.
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tadašnji MP3 plejer je mogao
da sadrži samo 10 pesama.
da sadrži samo 10 pesama.
04:05
And it was a big Christmas hit.
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I to je bila glavna stvar tog Božića.
04:07
Because what little hoodlum wouldn't want
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Jer koja mala bitanga ne želi
04:09
a million and a half bucks-worth of stolen goods in his pocket.
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kradenu robu vrednosti od milion dolara
u svom džepu.
u svom džepu.
04:11
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
04:14
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
04:19
These days an iPod Classic can hold 40,000 songs,
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Današnji iPod može da sadrži i do 40 hiljada pesama,
04:22
which is to say eight billion dollars-worth
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što je 8 milijardi dolara
04:25
of stolen media.
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piratizovanog sadržaja.
04:27
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
04:29
Or about 75,000 jobs.
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Iliti 75 hiljada radnih mesta.
04:31
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
04:33
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
04:38
Now you might find copyright math strange,
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Možda će vam se ovakva matematika učiniti čudnom,
04:41
but that's because it's a field
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ali to je zato što je ona jedno polje
04:43
that's best left to experts.
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koje je najbolje prepustiti ekspertima.
04:45
So that's it for now.
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To bi bilo to za sada.
04:47
I hope you'll join me next time
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Nadam se da ćete mi se pridružiti sledeći put
04:49
when I will be making an equally scientific and fact-based inquiry
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kada ću se takođe osloniti na nauku
04:52
into the cost of alien music piracy to he American economy.
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procenjujući štetu piratizovane vanzemaljske
muzike na američku ekonomiju.
muzike na američku ekonomiju.
04:55
Thank you very much.
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Hvala najlepše.
04:57
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
04:59
Thank you.
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Hvala.
05:01
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Rob Reid - Author, entrepreneurRob Reid is a humor author and the founder of the company that created the music subscription service Rhapsody.
Why you should listen
Rob Reid is an author and a serial entrepreneur. He founded the company that created the Rhapsody music website, and his latest book, Year Zero, was published in July 2013. In it, aliens seek to erase the ruinous fines on their vast collections of pirated American music by destroying the Earth. Parts of it are made up. The audiobook version will be read by John Hodgman.
On the TED Blog, read more on the numbers behind Copyright Math >>
Rob Reid | Speaker | TED.com