Elon Musk: The future we're building -- and boring
Elon Musk is the CEO and product architect of Tesla Motors and the CEO/CTO of Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX). Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
Elon, hey, welcome back to TED.
an exciting future might look like,
the first question a little ironic:
be a 3D network of tunnels
soul-destroying things is traffic.
in every part of the world.
that's been shown of this.
So this is the first time --
that are important
and exit of the tunnel
that's on an elevator,
and exits to the tunnel network
to operate at 200 kilometers an hour.
or about 130 miles per hour.
to get from, say, Westwood to LAX
of toll road-type basis.
alleviates some traffic
if people noticed it in the video,
to how many levels of tunnel you can have.
than you can go up.
than the tallest buildings are tall,
level of urban congestion
is that if you add one layer of tunnels,
it will get used up,
back with congestion.
arbitrary number of tunnels,
it's incredibly expensive to dig,
the LA subway extension,
a two-and-a-half mile extension
for two billion dollars.
to do the subway extension in LA.
utility subway in the world.
to dig tunnels normally.
at least a tenfold improvement
an order of magnitude improvement,
is to cut the tunnel diameter
according to regulations
maybe 28 feet in diameter
and emergency vehicles
for combustion engine cars.
to what we're attempting,
to get an electric skate through,
by a factor of four,
with the cross-sectional area.
of magnitude improvement right there.
for half the time, then they stop,
is putting in reinforcements
tunneling and reinforcing,
a factor of two improvement.
at their power or thermal limits,
to the machine substantially.
at least a factor of two,
improvement on top of that.
straightforward series of steps
of an order of magnitude improvement
from "South Park,"
of going 14 times faster
dreaming about future cities,
the solution is flying cars, drones, etc.
so I like things that fly.
against flying things,
will be very high.
flying over your head,
going all over the place,
"Well, I feel better about today."
"Did they service their hubcap,
and guillotine me?"
3D networks of tunnels underneath.
to use for this Hyperloop idea
sort of puttering around
adjacent to SpaceX,
ideas in transport.
the biggest vacuum chamber in the world
but it was kind of a hobby thing,
to push the student pods,
how fast we can make the pusher go
than the world's fastest bullet train
into tiny pieces or go quite fast.
then, a Hyperloop in a tunnel
in order to make a tunnel,
a tunnel wall to be good
that automatically,
to resist the water table,
capable of holding vacuum.
is in Elon's future to running Hyperloop?
to go underground the entire way
a lot of buildings and houses,
well, it's going to be pretty annoying
tunnel diameters beneath your house,
to detect it being dug at all.
to detect the tunnel being dug,
for that device from the Israeli military,
tunnels from Hamas,
that try and detect drug tunnels.
at absorbing vibrations,
is below a certain level,
seismic instrument,
a new company to do this
hobby looks like.
and people doing it part time.
but it's making good progress, so --
cars and transport through Tesla.
for the tunneling project
and where they're self-driving,
more cars on the roads
that when you make cars autonomous,
and that will alleviate congestion.
where it's much cheaper to go by car
will be better than that of a bus.
will be much greater with shared autonomy,
with the goal of persuading the world
was the future of cars,
people were laughing at you.
every auto manufacturer
serious electrification plans
has some electric vehicle program.
about transitioning entirely to electric,
are still pursuing fuel cells,
and say, you know, "We did it."
and you go on and focus on other stuff?
as far into the future as I can imagine,
things that we have coming.
to be coming in July-ish.
for starting production in July.
that people are so excited about
would look like.
in Model S right now.
only cameras and GPS.
or radar being used here.
which is essentially what a person uses.
is meant to be navigated
it's not solved.
so heavily on having a vision neural net
are going the LIDAR route.
be superhuman with just cameras.
ten times better than humans would,
have eight cameras in them.
for being able to go cross-country
of the year, fully autonomous.
of the year, you're saying,
without touching the steering wheel,
by the end of 2017.
November or December of this year,
from a parking lot in California
during the entire journey.
of Teslas driving all these roads.
of data of that national road system.
that will be interesting
it will be able to do that route
at one specific route, that's one thing,
really be very good,
to LA to New York.
and make it Seattle-Florida,
regulation for a second,
will be able to buy one of your cars
off the wheel and go to sleep
is not how do you make it work
one in a thousand times,
to be comfortable falling asleep.
or a thousand lifetimes,
if I were to live a thousand lives,
never experience a crash,
is that people may actually
to think that this is safe,
incident happen that puts things back.
is likely to at least mitigate the crash,
about vehicle safety
a human driver gets in a car,
that is their fault.
need to be than a person
literally safe hands-off driving,
the whole industry seems massive,
of people being able to buy a car,
and then you let it go
service to other people,
of your lease of that car,
this is what will happen.
to use that car exclusively,
only by friends and family,
who are rated five star,
but not other times.
to announce this in September,
anything you could show us today?
a teaser shot of the truck.
where we want to be cautious
just a little friendly neighborhood truck.
long-range semitruck.
the heavy-duty trucking loads.
people do not today think is possible.
power or it doesn't have enough range,
will tug the diesel semi uphill.
And short term, these aren't driverless.
that truck drivers want to drive.
really fun about this
with an electric motor,
of internal combustion engine car,
that looks like a hill.
around like a sports car.
It's, like, single speed.
to be made here somewhere.
and I don't know that it ends well,
for the first truck.
because you're driving around
and you're in this giant truck.
already driven a prototype?
around the parking lot,
driving this giant truck
OK, from a really badass picture
from "Desperate Housewives" or something.
the picture of the future
in the driveway.
the electric car and the house,
stacked up against the side of the house,
well, admittedly, it's a real fake house.
basically solar power, the ability to --
the texture and the color
sort of microlouvers in the glass,
at the roof from street level
behind it or not.
from a helicopter,
to look through and see
a solar cell behind them and some do not.
that are likely to see a lot of sun,
super affordable, right?
than just tiling the roof.
that the cost of the roof
than the cost of a normal roof
the warranty be infinity,
like were just talking rubbish,
in a couple week's time, I think,
with two, two initially,
will be introduced early next year.
could end up having this type of roofing?
the time scale here
is replaced every 20 to 25 years.
all roofs immediately.
if you say were to fast-forward
that does not have solar.
that people don't get here
the economics of solar power,
enough sunlight on their roof
power all their needs.
relative to the roof area,
have enough roof area
of lithium-ion batteries,
the core competency.
the world's largest manufacturing plant
of lithium-ion batteries,
a diamond shape overall,
it'll look like a giant diamond,
of batteries a year.
We think probably more, but yeah.
being produced right now.
CA: You guys put out this video.
without a strobe light.
about what makes an exciting future
feel guilty about energy.
does it take to get us there?
off this vast fossil fuel thing.
that you can picture that project.
announce another two this year.
and four Gigafactories later this year.
about politics, only one.
but I do want to ask you this.
giving advice to a guy --
really believe in climate change,
who think you shouldn't be doing that.
of going around the room
every month or two.
that there are people in the room
of doing something about climate change,
and in favor of climate change.
but at least the words were said.
a kind of incredibly ambitious dream
that were actually reusable.
What are we looking at here?
very high and fast in space.
at sort of Mach 7 or so,
the sped-up version.
figured out how to do it,
what, five or six times?
one of the rockets that landed.
and flew it again,
of an orbital booster
that reusability is only relevant
to Boeing in-between flights.
to dream of this really ambitious idea
this outrageous rocket to do it.
the scale of this thing.
you can see that's a person.
a 40-story skyscraper?
the thrust of the Saturn V moon rocket.
rocket humanity ever created before.
EM: Yeah.
a quarter of a million pounds of thrust,
of 120 747s, with all engines blazing.
designed to escape Earth's gravity,
take a fully loaded 747,
a fully loaded 747 with maximum fuel,
maximum cargo on the 747 --
this Interplanetary Transport System
30 years time? 20 years time?
an eight- to 10-year time frame.
are more aggressive, but I think --
with other rockets,
will be truly enormous.
on it in your lifetime,
what you've said you'd love to do?
and you want to live.
being out there among the stars
that we're going to have.
as an either or,
happening on the planet now
to, you know, you pick your issue.
a fair old bit to actually do that
from the standpoint of probabilities.
stream of probabilities,
that affect those probabilities
or slow down another thing.
to the probability stream.
will happen no matter what.
if Tesla never existed,
it means you have unsustainable energy.
will drive civilization
of a company like Tesla
the advent of sustainable energy,
of a company like Tesla,
potentially more than a decade,
aspirational good of Tesla.
species and space-faring civilization.
this is not inevitable.
I think is largely inevitable,
is definitely not inevitable.
to send somebody to the moon.
take people to low Earth orbit.
could take no one to orbit.
just automatically improves.
work very hard to make it better,
by itself degrade, actually.
like Ancient Egypt,
they built these incredible aqueducts.
listening to you
things you've done,
double motivation on everything
for humanity's long-term good.
to do something exciting.
like you need the one to drive the other.
to have sustainable energy,
exciting cars to do it.
about your newest thing,
this really cool brain-machine interface
and telepathy and so forth.
like what you're saying is,
of beauty and inspiration
to happen inevitably.
you dream this stuff,
would dare dream,
would be capable of dreaming
is a really remarkable thing.
to dream a bit bigger.
starts getting genuinely insane, right?
That was really, really fantastic.
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Elon Musk - Serial entrepreneurElon Musk is the CEO and product architect of Tesla Motors and the CEO/CTO of Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX).
Why you should listen
At SpaceX, Musk oversees the development of rockets and spacecraft for missions to Earth orbit and ultimately to other planets. In 2008, SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket and Dragon spacecraft won the NASA contract to provide cargo transport to space. In 2012, SpaceX became the first commercial company to dock with the International Space Station and return cargo to Earth with the Dragon.
At Tesla, Musk has overseen product development and design from the beginning, including the all-electric Tesla Roadster, Model S and Model X, and the rollout of Supercharger stations to keep the cars juiced up. (Some of the charging stations use solar energy systems from SolarCity, of which Musk is the non-executive chair.) Transitioning to a sustainable energy economy, in which electric vehicles play a pivotal role, has been one of his central interests for almost two decades. He co-founded PayPal and served as the company's chair and CEO.
Elon Musk | Speaker | TED.com