TED2017
Elon Musk: The future we're building -- and boring
Ilon Mask (Elon Musk): Budućnost koju gradimo - i kopamo
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U razgovoru sa glavnim kustosom TED-a, Krisom Andersonom, Ilon Mask raspravlja o njegovom novom projektu, kopanju tunela ispod Los Anđelesa, o novinama iz Tesle i Spejs iksa i njegovoj motivaciji za izgradnju budućnosti na Marsu.
Elon Musk - Serial entrepreneur
Elon Musk is the CEO and product architect of Tesla Motors and the CEO/CTO of Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX). Full bio
Elon Musk is the CEO and product architect of Tesla Motors and the CEO/CTO of Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX). Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Chris Anderson:
Elon, hey, welcome back to TED.
Elon, hey, welcome back to TED.
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Kris Anderson: Ilone, hej,
dobro došao opet na TED.
dobro došao opet na TED.
00:15
It's great to have you here.
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Lepo je što si ovde.
00:16
Elon Musk: Thanks for having me.
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Ilon Mask: Hvala na pozivu.
00:18
CA: So, in the next half hour or so,
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KA: Dakle, u narednih oko pola sata,
00:21
we're going to spend some time
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provešćemo neko vreme
00:23
exploring your vision for what
an exciting future might look like,
an exciting future might look like,
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istražujući tvoju viziju toga koliko bi
budućnost mogla da izgleda uzbudljivo,
budućnost mogla da izgleda uzbudljivo,
00:27
which I guess makes
the first question a little ironic:
the first question a little ironic:
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zbog čega je, valjda, prvo pitanje
malčice ironično:
malčice ironično:
00:31
Why are you boring?
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zašto zabušavaš?
00:33
EM: Yeah.
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IM: Da.
00:34
I ask myself that frequently.
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To često pitam samog sebe.
00:39
We're trying to dig a hole under LA,
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Pokušavamo da iskopamo rupu
ispod Los Anđelesa
ispod Los Anđelesa
00:43
and this is to create the beginning
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s ciljem da stvorimo početak
00:46
of what will hopefully
be a 3D network of tunnels
be a 3D network of tunnels
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nečega što će, nadamo se,
biti 3D mreža tunela
biti 3D mreža tunela
00:51
to alleviate congestion.
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kako bi se olakšalo zakrčenje.
00:53
So right now, one of the most
soul-destroying things is traffic.
soul-destroying things is traffic.
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Dakle, trenutno je saobraćaj
nešto najiritantnije.
nešto najiritantnije.
00:59
It affects people
in every part of the world.
in every part of the world.
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Pogađa ljude u svim delovima sveta.
01:02
It takes away so much of your life.
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Toliko vam oduzima od života.
01:06
It's horrible.
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Užasno je.
01:08
It's particularly horrible in LA.
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Naročito je užasno u Los Anđelesu.
01:09
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
01:12
CA: I think you've brought with you
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KA: Mislim da si sa sobom poneo
01:14
the first visualization
that's been shown of this.
that's been shown of this.
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prvu vizualizaciju ovoga
koja je ikad prikazana.
koja je ikad prikazana.
01:16
Can I show this?
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Mogu li to da pokažem?
01:18
EM: Yeah, absolutely.
So this is the first time --
So this is the first time --
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IM: Da, apsolutno.
Dakle, ovo je prvi put -
Dakle, ovo je prvi put -
01:20
Just to show what we're talking about.
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Prosto da pokažem o čemu pričamo.
01:22
So a couple of key things
that are important
that are important
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Dakle, nekoliko ključnih stvari
koje su važne
koje su važne
01:24
in having a 3D tunnel network.
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kad imate 3D mrežu tunela.
01:28
First of all, you have to be able
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Prvo - morate da budete u stanju
01:30
to integrate the entrance
and exit of the tunnel
and exit of the tunnel
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da integrišete ulaz i izlaz iz tunela
01:32
seamlessly into the fabric of the city.
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besprekorno sa gradskim tkanjem.
01:34
So by having an elevator,
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Uz lift,
01:38
sort of a car skate,
that's on an elevator,
that's on an elevator,
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neku vrstu nosača za automobile,
koji je na liftu,
koji je na liftu,
01:43
you can integrate the entrance
and exits to the tunnel network
and exits to the tunnel network
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možete da integrišete ulaze i izlaze
u i iz mreže tunela,
u i iz mreže tunela,
01:47
just by using two parking spaces.
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upotrebom svega dva parking mesta.
01:50
And then the car gets on a skate.
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Potom automobil stigne na nosač.
01:52
There's no speed limit here,
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Tu brzina nije ograničena,
01:54
so we're designing this to be able
to operate at 200 kilometers an hour.
to operate at 200 kilometers an hour.
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mi ga dizajniramo da može
da ide 200 kilometara na sat.
da ide 200 kilometara na sat.
01:59
CA: How much?
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KA: Koliko?
02:00
EM: 200 kilometers an hour,
or about 130 miles per hour.
or about 130 miles per hour.
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IM: 200 kilometara na sat
ili oko 130 milja na sat.
ili oko 130 milja na sat.
02:04
So you should be able
to get from, say, Westwood to LAX
to get from, say, Westwood to LAX
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Pa, trebalo bi da možete da stignete,
recimo, od Vestvuda do LAX-a
recimo, od Vestvuda do LAX-a
02:11
in six minutes -- five, six minutes.
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za šest minuta - pet, šest minuta.
02:13
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
KA: Moguće da će provbitna verzija
02:17
CA: So possibly, initially done,
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02:19
it's like on a sort
of toll road-type basis.
of toll road-type basis.
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da bude zasnovana na nekom vidu putarine.
02:21
EM: Yeah.
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IM: Da.
02:22
CA: Which, I guess,
alleviates some traffic
alleviates some traffic
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KA: Što, valjda, ublažava nešto saobraćaja
02:24
from the surface streets as well.
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sa ulica na površini, takođe.
02:26
EM: So, I don't know
if people noticed it in the video,
if people noticed it in the video,
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IM: Dakle, ne znam da li su ljudi
primetili na snimku,
primetili na snimku,
02:29
but there's no real limit
to how many levels of tunnel you can have.
to how many levels of tunnel you can have.
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ali ne postoji stvarno ograničenje
koliko nivoa tunela možete da imate.
koliko nivoa tunela možete da imate.
02:34
You can go much further deep
than you can go up.
than you can go up.
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Možete ići daleko više u dubinu
nego što možete u visinu.
nego što možete u visinu.
02:37
The deepest mines are much deeper
than the tallest buildings are tall,
than the tallest buildings are tall,
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Najdublji rudnici su daleko dublji
nego što su najviše zgrade visoke,
nego što su najviše zgrade visoke,
02:41
so you can alleviate any arbitrary
level of urban congestion
level of urban congestion
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te možete da olakšate bilo koji
proizvoljni stepen gradskog zakrčenja
proizvoljni stepen gradskog zakrčenja
02:46
with a 3D tunnel network.
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uz 3D mrežu tunela.
02:48
This is a very important point.
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Ovo je veoma važno.
02:49
So a key rebuttal to the tunnels
is that if you add one layer of tunnels,
is that if you add one layer of tunnels,
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Ključna kritika na račun tunela
je da ako dodate jedan sloj tunela,
je da ako dodate jedan sloj tunela,
02:56
that will simply alleviate congestion,
it will get used up,
it will get used up,
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to bi prosto olakšalo gužve,
popunilo bi se
popunilo bi se
02:58
and then you'll be back where you started,
back with congestion.
back with congestion.
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i ponovo biste bili na početku sa gužvom.
03:02
But you can go to any
arbitrary number of tunnels,
arbitrary number of tunnels,
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Ali mogli biste da imate bezbroj tunela,
03:04
any number of levels.
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bezbroj nivoa.
03:05
CA: But people -- seen traditionally,
it's incredibly expensive to dig,
it's incredibly expensive to dig,
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KA: Ali ljudi - gledano tradicionalno,
kopanje je izuzetno skupo,
kopanje je izuzetno skupo,
03:09
and that would block this idea.
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i to bi zaustavilo ovu ideju.
03:11
EM: Yeah.
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IM: Da.
03:13
Well, they're right.
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Pa, u pravu su.
03:14
To give you an example,
the LA subway extension,
the LA subway extension,
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Da vam dam jedan primer,
podzemna produžnica u Los Anđelesu,
podzemna produžnica u Los Anđelesu,
03:18
which is -- I think it's
a two-and-a-half mile extension
a two-and-a-half mile extension
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koja je - mislim da je duga
četiri kilometra,
četiri kilometra,
03:21
that was just completed
for two billion dollars.
for two billion dollars.
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upravo je završena
za dve milijarde dolara.
za dve milijarde dolara.
03:24
So it's roughly a billion dollars a mile
to do the subway extension in LA.
to do the subway extension in LA.
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Otprilike se radi o milijardi dolara
po 1,6 km da se napravi podzemna u LA.
po 1,6 km da se napravi podzemna u LA.
03:29
And this is not the highest
utility subway in the world.
utility subway in the world.
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A ovo nije najkorisnija podzemna na svetu.
03:33
So yeah, it's quite difficult
to dig tunnels normally.
to dig tunnels normally.
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Pa, da, obično je prilično teško
kopati tunele.
kopati tunele.
03:37
I think we need to have
at least a tenfold improvement
at least a tenfold improvement
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Mislim da nam je potreban
bar desetostruki napredak
bar desetostruki napredak
03:41
in the cost per mile of tunneling.
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u ceni po kilometru tunela.
03:44
CA: And how could you achieve that?
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KA: A kako možete to da postignete?
03:48
EM: Actually, if you just do two things,
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IM: Zapravo, ako uradite samo dve stvari,
03:50
you can get to approximately
an order of magnitude improvement,
an order of magnitude improvement,
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dostigli biste otprilike
napredak za red velične,
napredak za red velične,
03:53
and I think you can go beyond that.
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a mislim da možete više od toga.
03:55
So the first thing to do
is to cut the tunnel diameter
is to cut the tunnel diameter
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Pa, prvo što treba da uradite
je da skratite prečnik tunela
je da skratite prečnik tunela
04:00
by a factor of two or more.
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za faktor od dva ili više.
04:01
So a single road lane tunnel
according to regulations
according to regulations
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Dakle, tunel sa jednom trakom,
prema propisima,
prema propisima,
04:05
has to be 26 feet,
maybe 28 feet in diameter
maybe 28 feet in diameter
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mora da ima prečnik od 8, možda 8,5 metara
04:08
to allow for crashes
and emergency vehicles
and emergency vehicles
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kako bi ostao prostor u slučaju nesreće
i za vozila hitne pomoći,
i za vozila hitne pomoći,
04:11
and sufficient ventilation
for combustion engine cars.
for combustion engine cars.
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kao i dovoljno ventilacije za vozila
sa motorima sa unutrašnjim sagorevanjem.
sa motorima sa unutrašnjim sagorevanjem.
04:16
But if you shrink that diameter
to what we're attempting,
to what we're attempting,
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Međutim, ako suzite taj prečnik
na ono na šta mi ciljamo,
na ono na šta mi ciljamo,
04:19
which is 12 feet, which is plenty
to get an electric skate through,
to get an electric skate through,
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a to je 3,7 metara, što je sasvim dovoljno
da električni nosač prođe,
da električni nosač prođe,
04:23
you drop the diameter by a factor of two
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umanjili ste prečnik za faktor od dva
04:26
and the cross-sectional area
by a factor of four,
by a factor of four,
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a prostor poprečnog preseka
za faktor od četiri,
za faktor od četiri,
04:30
and the tunneling cost scales
with the cross-sectional area.
with the cross-sectional area.
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a cena kopanja tunela je srazmerna
poprečnom preseku.
poprečnom preseku.
04:33
So that's roughly a half-order
of magnitude improvement right there.
of magnitude improvement right there.
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Te je to otprilike unapređenje
za pola reda veličine.
za pola reda veličine.
04:36
Then tunneling machines currently tunnel
for half the time, then they stop,
for half the time, then they stop,
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Trenutno mašine kopaju tunele
polovinu vremena, potom se zaustavljaju,
polovinu vremena, potom se zaustavljaju,
04:41
and then the rest of the time
is putting in reinforcements
is putting in reinforcements
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a preostalo vreme se troši na ojačavanje
04:44
for the tunnel wall.
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zidova tunela.
04:46
So if you design the machine instead
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Pa ako umesto toga dizajnirate mašinu
04:48
to do continuous
tunneling and reinforcing,
tunneling and reinforcing,
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da obavlja konstantno
kopanje i ojačavanje,
kopanje i ojačavanje,
04:50
that will give you
a factor of two improvement.
a factor of two improvement.
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time ćete postići
napredak za faktor od dva.
napredak za faktor od dva.
04:53
Combine that and that's a factor of eight.
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Saberite to sve i imaćete faktor od osam.
04:55
Also these machines are far from being
at their power or thermal limits,
at their power or thermal limits,
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Takođe, ove mašine nisu ni blizu
granice svoijih termalnih moći,
granice svoijih termalnih moći,
04:59
so you can jack up the power
to the machine substantially.
to the machine substantially.
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te možete bitno uvećati snagu mašina.
Mislim da možete postići
bar faktor od dva,
bar faktor od dva,
05:03
I think you can get
at least a factor of two,
at least a factor of two,
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05:05
maybe a factor of four or five
improvement on top of that.
improvement on top of that.
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možda faktor od četiri ili pet povrh toga.
05:09
So I think there's a fairly
straightforward series of steps
straightforward series of steps
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Te smatram da imamo
prilično direktan niz koraka
prilično direktan niz koraka
05:13
to get somewhere in excess
of an order of magnitude improvement
of an order of magnitude improvement
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da stignemo do napretka
od više od jednog reda veličine
od više od jednog reda veličine
05:16
in the cost per mile,
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u ceni po kilometru,
05:18
and our target actually is --
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a zapravo naš cilj je -
05:21
we've got a pet snail called Gary,
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imamo puža ljubimca, po imenu Gari,
05:24
this is from Gary the snail
from "South Park,"
from "South Park,"
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nazvan je po pužu Gariju iz "Saut Parka",
05:26
I mean, sorry, "SpongeBob SquarePants."
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mislim, pardon, "Sunđer Boba Kockalonea".
05:29
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
05:31
So Gary is capable of --
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Dakle, Gari je u stanju -
05:35
currently he's capable
of going 14 times faster
of going 14 times faster
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trenutno može da ide 14 puta brže
05:39
than a tunnel-boring machine.
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od mašine za kopanje tunela.
05:41
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
05:44
CA: You want to beat Gary.
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KA: Želite da pobedite Garija.
IM: Želimo da pobedimo Garija.
05:46
EM: We want to beat Gary.
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05:47
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
05:49
He's not a patient little fellow,
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On nije strpljiv mališa,
05:51
and that will be victory.
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a to bi bio uspeh.
05:54
Victory is beating the snail.
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Uspeh je pobeda nad pužem.
05:57
CA: But a lot of people imagining,
dreaming about future cities,
dreaming about future cities,
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KA: Ali mnogi ljudi kad zamišljaju,
sanjaju gradove budućnosti,
sanjaju gradove budućnosti,
06:00
they imagine that actually
the solution is flying cars, drones, etc.
the solution is flying cars, drones, etc.
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zamišljaju da je zapravo rešenje
u letećim automobilima, dronovima itd.
u letećim automobilima, dronovima itd.
06:04
You go aboveground.
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Ide se iznad zemlje.
06:06
Why isn't that a better solution?
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Zašto to nije bolje rešenje?
06:08
You save all that tunneling cost.
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Uštedite sve te troškove kopanja?
06:10
EM: Right. I'm in favor of flying things.
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IM: Tačno. Ja sam za leteće stvari.
06:12
Obviously, I do rockets,
so I like things that fly.
so I like things that fly.
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Očigledno, pravim rakete,
te mi se sviđaju stvari koje lete.
te mi se sviđaju stvari koje lete.
06:16
This is not some inherent bias
against flying things,
against flying things,
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Ne radi se o urođenoj predrasudi
protiv letećih stvari,
protiv letećih stvari,
06:19
but there is a challenge with flying cars
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ali imamo izazov kod letećih auta
06:22
in that they'll be quite noisy,
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zbog toga što će biti prilično bučna,
06:25
the wind force generated
will be very high.
will be very high.
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snaga vetra koju će da stvaraju
će da bude veoma velika.
će da bude veoma velika.
06:32
Let's just say that if something's
flying over your head,
flying over your head,
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Recimo, ako vam nešto leti iznad glave,
06:34
a whole bunch of flying cars
going all over the place,
going all over the place,
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čitava gomila letećih auta
koja ide tamo i ovamo,
koja ide tamo i ovamo,
06:38
that is not an anxiety-reducing situation.
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ne radi se o situaciji
koja umanjuje anksioznost.
koja umanjuje anksioznost.
06:43
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
06:45
You don't think to yourself,
"Well, I feel better about today."
"Well, I feel better about today."
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Ne razmišljate u sebi:
"Pa, danas se osećam bolje."
"Pa, danas se osećam bolje."
06:50
You're thinking,
"Did they service their hubcap,
"Did they service their hubcap,
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Razmišljate: "Da li su
servisirali radkapnu
servisirali radkapnu
06:53
or is it going to come off
and guillotine me?"
and guillotine me?"
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ili će da spadne i giljotinira me?"
06:56
Things like that.
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Slične stvari.
07:00
CA: So you've got this vision
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KA: Dakle, tvoja vizija
07:01
of future cities with these rich,
3D networks of tunnels underneath.
3D networks of tunnels underneath.
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gradova budućnosti uključuje ovu bogatu,
3D mrežu tunela ispod njih.
3D mrežu tunela ispod njih.
07:07
Is there a tie-in here with Hyperloop?
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Da li je ovo u vezi sa Hiperlupom?
07:09
Could you apply these tunnels
to use for this Hyperloop idea
to use for this Hyperloop idea
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Možeš li da primeniš ove tunele
kod ideje sa Hiperlupom
kod ideje sa Hiperlupom
07:12
you released a few years ago.
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koju si objavio pre nekoliko godina?
07:14
EM: Yeah, so we've been
sort of puttering around
sort of puttering around
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IM: Da, nekako smo se petljali
07:18
with the Hyperloop stuff for a while.
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neko vreme oko Hiperlupa.
07:20
We built a Hyperloop test track
adjacent to SpaceX,
adjacent to SpaceX,
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Sagradili smo test stazu za Hiperlup
blizu Spejs iksa,
blizu Spejs iksa,
07:24
just for a student competition,
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samo za takmičenje za studente,
07:26
to encourage innovative
ideas in transport.
ideas in transport.
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kako bismo ohrabrili
inovativne ideje u saobraćaju.
inovativne ideje u saobraćaju.
07:29
And it actually ends up being
the biggest vacuum chamber in the world
the biggest vacuum chamber in the world
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I zapravo je na kraju to ispalo
najveća vakuumska komora na svetu
najveća vakuumska komora na svetu
07:34
after the Large Hadron Collider,
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posle velikog hadronskog sudarivača,
07:37
by volume.
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prema zapremini.
07:41
So it was quite fun to do that,
but it was kind of a hobby thing,
but it was kind of a hobby thing,
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Te je bilo veoma zabavno baviti se time,
ali to je bilo nekako poput dokolice,
ali to je bilo nekako poput dokolice,
07:46
and then we think we might --
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a onda smo pomislili da bismo mogli -
07:50
so we've built a little pusher car
to push the student pods,
to push the student pods,
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pa smo napravili malena gurajuća auta
da guraju studentske šasije,
da guraju studentske šasije,
07:56
but we're going to try seeing
how fast we can make the pusher go
how fast we can make the pusher go
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ali ćemo pokušati da proverimo
koliko brzi gurači mogu da budu,
koliko brzi gurači mogu da budu,
08:00
if it's not pushing something.
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kad ne guraju nešto.
08:02
So we're cautiously optimistic
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Pa smo oprezno optimistični,
08:05
we'll be able to be faster
than the world's fastest bullet train
than the world's fastest bullet train
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bićemo brži od najbržeg
superbrzog voza u svetu
superbrzog voza u svetu
08:10
even in a .8-mile stretch.
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čak i u rasponu od 1,3 kilometra.
08:12
CA: Whoa. Good brakes.
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KA: Opa. Odlične kočnice.
08:14
EM: Yeah, I mean, it's -- yeah.
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IM: Da, mislim, to je - da.
08:17
It's either going to smash
into tiny pieces or go quite fast.
into tiny pieces or go quite fast.
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Ili će se razbiti u paramparčad
ili će da ide prilično brzo.
ili će da ide prilično brzo.
08:21
CA: But you can picture,
then, a Hyperloop in a tunnel
then, a Hyperloop in a tunnel
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KA: Ali onda možeš da zamisliš
Hiperlup u tunelu
Hiperlup u tunelu
08:25
running quite long distances.
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kako se proteže velikim udaljenostima.
08:27
EM: Exactly.
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IM: Upravo.
Posmatrajući tehnologiju kopanja tunela,
08:29
And looking at tunneling technology,
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08:30
it turns out that
in order to make a tunnel,
in order to make a tunnel,
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ispada da, kako biste napravili tunel,
08:33
you have to --
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morate -
08:36
In order to seal against the water table,
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Kako biste blokirali podzemne vode,
08:38
you've got to typically design
a tunnel wall to be good
a tunnel wall to be good
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obično morate da dizajnirate
zid tunela da izdrži
zid tunela da izdrži
08:43
to about five or six atmospheres.
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pritisak od oko pet ili šest atmosfera.
08:47
So to go to vacuum is only one atmosphere,
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Pa, prelazak na vakuum
je tek pritisak od jedne atmosfere,
je tek pritisak od jedne atmosfere,
08:50
or near-vacuum.
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ili blizu vakuuma.
08:51
So actually, it sort of turns out
that automatically,
that automatically,
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Te, zapravo, nekako se ispostavlja
da automatski,
da automatski,
08:56
if you build a tunnel that is good enough
to resist the water table,
to resist the water table,
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ako sagradite tunel koji je dovoljno jak
da odoleva podzemnim vodama,
da odoleva podzemnim vodama,
09:00
it is automatically
capable of holding vacuum.
capable of holding vacuum.
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automatski je u stanju da izdrži vakuum.
09:02
CA: Huh.
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KA: Ha.
09:04
EM: So, yeah.
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IM: Dakle, da.
09:05
CA: And so you could actually picture,
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KA: Dakle, ti možeš da zapravo zamisliš
09:07
what kind of length tunnel
is in Elon's future to running Hyperloop?
is in Elon's future to running Hyperloop?
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koje je dužine tunel iz Ilonove budućnosti
kojim saobraća Hiperlup?
kojim saobraća Hiperlup?
09:13
EM: I think there's no real length limit.
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IM: Mislim da ne postoji
stvarno ograničenje dužine.
stvarno ograničenje dužine.
09:16
You could dig as much as you want.
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Možete da kopate koliko želite.
09:19
I think if you were to do something
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Mislim da ako biste se namerili na nešto
09:21
like a DC-to-New York Hyperloop,
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kao Hiperlup od Vašingtona do Njujorka,
mislim da biste verovatno želeli
da idete pod zemljom celim putem
da idete pod zemljom celim putem
09:27
I think you'd probably want
to go underground the entire way
to go underground the entire way
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09:29
because it's a high-density area.
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jer se radi o gusto naseljenoj oblasti.
09:31
You're going under
a lot of buildings and houses,
a lot of buildings and houses,
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Idete ispod mnogo zgrada i kuća,
09:35
and if you go deep enough,
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a ako idete dovoljno duboko,
09:37
you cannot detect the tunnel.
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ne možete da detektujete tunel.
09:39
Sometimes people think,
well, it's going to be pretty annoying
well, it's going to be pretty annoying
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Ponekad ljudi misle, pa,
biće prilično iritantno,
biće prilično iritantno,
09:42
to have a tunnel dug under my house.
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ako iskopaju tunel ispod moje kuće.
09:44
Like, if that tunnel is dug
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Ako je taj tunel iskopan
09:45
more than about three or four
tunnel diameters beneath your house,
tunnel diameters beneath your house,
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više od tri ili četiri prečnika tunela
ispod vaše kuće,
ispod vaše kuće,
09:49
you will not be able
to detect it being dug at all.
to detect it being dug at all.
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nećete biti u stanju
da detektujete da se uopšte kopa.
da detektujete da se uopšte kopa.
09:52
In fact, if you're able
to detect the tunnel being dug,
to detect the tunnel being dug,
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Zapravo, ako ste u stanju
da detektujete kopanje tunela,
da detektujete kopanje tunela,
09:59
whatever device you are using,
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kakvu god spravu koristili,
10:01
you can get a lot of money
for that device from the Israeli military,
for that device from the Israeli military,
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izraelska vojska će da vam da
gomilu novca za tu spravu,
gomilu novca za tu spravu,
10:04
who is trying to detect
tunnels from Hamas,
tunnels from Hamas,
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jer pokušavaju da detektuju
Hamasove tunele,
Hamasove tunele,
10:07
and from the US Customs and Border patrol
that try and detect drug tunnels.
that try and detect drug tunnels.
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kao i od carinsko-graničnih jedinica SAD-a
koje pokušavaju da otkriju tunele droge.
koje pokušavaju da otkriju tunele droge.
10:12
So the reality is
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Dakle, u stvarnosti
10:15
that earth is incredibly good
at absorbing vibrations,
at absorbing vibrations,
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zemlja je neverovatno dobra
u apsorbovanju vibracija,
u apsorbovanju vibracija,
10:19
and once the tunnel depth
is below a certain level,
is below a certain level,
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a čim je tunel na dubini
ispod određenog nivoa,
ispod određenog nivoa,
10:22
it is undetectable.
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1976
nemoguće ga je detektovati.
Možda kad biste imali
veoma osetljiv seizmički instrument,
veoma osetljiv seizmički instrument,
10:24
Maybe if you have a very sensitive
seismic instrument,
seismic instrument,
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10:27
you might be able to detect it.
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mogli biste da ga detektujete.
10:29
CA: So you've started
a new company to do this
a new company to do this
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KA: Dakle, osnovao si novu firmu za to,
10:31
called The Boring Company.
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zove se Boring kompani.
10:33
Very nice. Very funny.
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1936
Fino. Veoma smešno.
10:35
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
10:36
EM: What's funny about that?
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IM: Šta je u tome smešno?
10:38
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
10:40
CA: How much of your time is this?
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KA: Koliko ti vremena oduzima?
10:43
EM: It's maybe ...
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IM: Otprilike...
10:47
two or three percent.
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dva ili tri procenta.
10:49
CA: You've bought a hobby.
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KA: Kupio si hobi.
10:50
This is what an Elon Musk
hobby looks like.
hobby looks like.
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Ovako izgleda hobi za Ilona Maska.
10:53
(Laughter)
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1016
(Smeh)
10:54
EM: I mean, it really is, like --
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IM: Mislim, ziasta jeste, kao -
10:57
This is basically interns
and people doing it part time.
and people doing it part time.
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U suštini radi se o pripravnicima
i ljudima koji to rade honorarno.
i ljudima koji to rade honorarno.
11:03
We bought some second-hand machinery.
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Kupili smo polovnu mehanizaciju.
11:08
It's kind of puttering along,
but it's making good progress, so --
but it's making good progress, so --
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Nekako se usputno petljamo time,
ali dobro napreduje, stoga -
ali dobro napreduje, stoga -
11:12
CA: So an even bigger part of your time
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KA: Dakle, nešto veći deo tvog vremena
11:13
is being spent on electrifying
cars and transport through Tesla.
cars and transport through Tesla.
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oduzima elektrifikacija
automobila i saobraćaja putem Tesle.
automobila i saobraćaja putem Tesle.
11:19
Is one of the motivations
for the tunneling project
for the tunneling project
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Da li je jedna od motivacija
za projekat tunela
za projekat tunela
11:22
the realization that actually,
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razumevanje da zapravo,
11:24
in a world where cars are electric
and where they're self-driving,
and where they're self-driving,
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u svetu u kom su automobili
električni i samoupravljajući,
električni i samoupravljajući,
11:28
there may end up being
more cars on the roads
more cars on the roads
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možda će doći do još većeg
broja automobila na putevima
broja automobila na putevima
11:31
on any given hour than there are now?
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u bilo kom momentu
nego što ih trenutno ima?
nego što ih trenutno ima?
11:34
EM: Yeah, exactly.
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IM: Da, upravo.
11:38
A lot of people think
that when you make cars autonomous,
that when you make cars autonomous,
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Mnogi ljudi misle da ako napravimo
autonomne automobile,
autonomne automobile,
11:42
they'll be able to go faster
and that will alleviate congestion.
and that will alleviate congestion.
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da će da idu brže
i da će to olakšati gužve.
i da će to olakšati gužve.
11:47
And to some degree that will be true,
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I do nekog stepena to će da bude tako,
11:48
but once you have shared autonomy
where it's much cheaper to go by car
where it's much cheaper to go by car
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ali čim dobijete zajednička autonomna auta
gde je mnogo jeftinije ići autom
gde je mnogo jeftinije ići autom
11:54
and you can go point to point,
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i možete ići od tačke do tačke,
11:56
the affordability of going in a car
will be better than that of a bus.
will be better than that of a bus.
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pristupačnost putovanja autom
će da bude veća od putovanja autobusom.
će da bude veća od putovanja autobusom.
12:02
Like, it will cost less than a bus ticket.
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Koštaće manje od karte za autobus.
12:04
So the amount of driving that will occur
will be much greater with shared autonomy,
will be much greater with shared autonomy,
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Dakle, količina vožnje koja će da se desi
će da bude mnogo veća od zajedničkog auta
će da bude mnogo veća od zajedničkog auta
12:09
and actually traffic will get far worse.
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i zapravo će saobraćaj da bude još gori.
12:12
CA: You started Tesla
with the goal of persuading the world
with the goal of persuading the world
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KA: Osnovao si Teslu
u cilju ubeđivanja sveta
u cilju ubeđivanja sveta
12:16
that electrification
was the future of cars,
was the future of cars,
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da je elektrifikacija
budućnost automobila,
budućnost automobila,
12:19
and a few years ago,
people were laughing at you.
people were laughing at you.
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a pre nekoliko godina,
ljudi su ti se smejali.
ljudi su ti se smejali.
12:22
Now, not so much.
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Sad, baš i ne.
12:24
EM: OK.
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IK: U redu.
12:25
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
12:27
I don't know. I don't know.
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Ne znam. Ne znam.
12:30
CA: But isn't it true that pretty much
every auto manufacturer
every auto manufacturer
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KA: Ali zar nije tačno da su skoro svi
proizvođači automobila
proizvođači automobila
12:33
has announced
serious electrification plans
serious electrification plans
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najavili ozbiljne planove elektrifikacije
12:36
for the short- to medium-term future?
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u kratkoročnoj
do srednjeročnoj budućnosti?
do srednjeročnoj budućnosti?
12:40
EM: Yeah. Yeah.
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IM: Da. Da.
12:43
I think almost every automaker
has some electric vehicle program.
has some electric vehicle program.
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Mislim da skoro svi proizvođači automobila
imaju neki program za električna vozila.
imaju neki program za električna vozila.
12:48
They vary in seriousness.
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Variraju u ozbiljnosti.
12:49
Some are very serious
about transitioning entirely to electric,
about transitioning entirely to electric,
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Neki su veoma ozbiljni
povodom potpunog prelaska na struju,
povodom potpunog prelaska na struju,
12:53
and some are just dabbling in it.
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a neki se samo površno time bave.
A neki su, za čudo,
i dalje na tragu gorivnih ćelija,
i dalje na tragu gorivnih ćelija,
12:57
And some, amazingly,
are still pursuing fuel cells,
are still pursuing fuel cells,
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12:59
but I think that won't last much longer.
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ali mislim da to neće trajati dugo.
13:01
CA: But isn't there a sense, though, Elon,
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KA: Ali zar nemaš osećaj, pak, Ilone,
13:03
where you can now just declare victory
and say, you know, "We did it."
and say, you know, "We did it."
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da možeš prosto proglasiti pobedu
i reći, znaš: "Uspeli smo."
i reći, znaš: "Uspeli smo."
13:07
Let the world electrify,
and you go on and focus on other stuff?
and you go on and focus on other stuff?
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Neka svet pređe na struju, a ti ćeš
da se usredsrediš na druge stvari?
da se usredsrediš na druge stvari?
13:13
EM: Yeah.
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IM: Da.
13:16
I intend to stay with Tesla
as far into the future as I can imagine,
as far into the future as I can imagine,
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Nameravam da se zadržim na Tesli
dokle god mogu da zamislim u budućnosti,
dokle god mogu da zamislim u budućnosti,
13:20
and there are a lot of exciting
things that we have coming.
things that we have coming.
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i ima tu mnogo uzbudljivih
stvari koje stižu.
stvari koje stižu.
13:25
Obviously the Model 3 is coming soon.
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Očito, uskoro izlazi model 3.
13:27
We'll be unveiling the Tesla Semi truck.
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Otkrićemo Teslin polukamion.
13:32
CA: OK, we're going to come to this.
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KA: U redu. Stići ćemo do toga.
13:34
So Model 3, it's supposed
to be coming in July-ish.
to be coming in July-ish.
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Dakle, model 3 bi trebalo
da izađe oko jula.
da izađe oko jula.
13:39
EM: Yeah, it's looking quite good
for starting production in July.
for starting production in July.
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IM: Da, dobri su izgledi
da će proizvodnja krenuti u julu.
da će proizvodnja krenuti u julu.
13:43
CA: Wow.
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KA: Opa.
13:45
One of the things
that people are so excited about
that people are so excited about
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Jedna od stvari oko koje su ljudi
veoma uzbuđeni
veoma uzbuđeni
13:47
is the fact that it's got autopilot.
265
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je to da ima autopilota.
13:50
And you put out this video a while back
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A ti si postavio snimak pre nekog vremena
13:53
showing what that technology
would look like.
would look like.
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pokazujući kako će ta
tehnologija da izgleda.
tehnologija da izgleda.
13:58
EM: Yeah.
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IM: Da.
13:59
There's obviously autopilot
in Model S right now.
in Model S right now.
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Očito imamo autopilota
trenutno u modelu S.
trenutno u modelu S.
14:02
What are we seeing here?
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KA: Šta vidimo ovde?
14:03
EM: Yeah, so this is using
only cameras and GPS.
only cameras and GPS.
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IM: Da, ovde koristimo samo kamere i GPS.
14:09
So there's no LIDAR
or radar being used here.
or radar being used here.
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Ovde se ne koristi LIDAR, niti radar.
14:12
This is just using passive optical,
which is essentially what a person uses.
which is essentially what a person uses.
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Samo koristimo pasivnu optiku,
a to u suštini ljudi koriste.
a to u suštini ljudi koriste.
14:17
The whole road system
is meant to be navigated
is meant to be navigated
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Trebalo bi čitavim sistemom puteva
da upravljamo
da upravljamo
14:19
with passive optical, or cameras,
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pasivnom optikom ili kamerama,
14:23
and so once you solve cameras
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te čim rešite problem kamera
14:27
or vision,
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ili vida,
14:29
then autonomy is solved.
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rešili ste samoupravljanje.
14:31
If you don't solve vision,
it's not solved.
it's not solved.
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Ako ne rešite problem vida,
nemate rešenje.
nemate rešenje.
14:34
So that's why our focus is
so heavily on having a vision neural net
so heavily on having a vision neural net
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Stoga smo se toliko usredsredili
na nabavku vizuelne neuronske mreže
na nabavku vizuelne neuronske mreže
14:40
that's very effective for road conditions.
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koja je veoma efikasna na putnim uslovima.
14:43
CA: Right. Many other people
are going the LIDAR route.
are going the LIDAR route.
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KA: Tačno. Mnogi drugi
se odlučuju za LIDAR.
se odlučuju za LIDAR.
14:46
You want cameras plus radar is most of it.
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Ti želiš kamere plus radar i to je sve.
14:48
EM: You can absolutely
be superhuman with just cameras.
be superhuman with just cameras.
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IM: Možeš u potpunosti da budeš
superčovek samo sa kamerama.
superčovek samo sa kamerama.
14:52
Like, you can probably do it
ten times better than humans would,
ten times better than humans would,
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Verovatno možeš da budeš
deset puta bolji od ljudi,
deset puta bolji od ljudi,
14:55
just cameras.
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samo s kamerama.
14:56
CA: So the new cars being sold right now
have eight cameras in them.
have eight cameras in them.
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KA: Dakle, novi automobili koje trenutno
prodaju imaju u sebi osam kamera.
prodaju imaju u sebi osam kamera.
15:01
They can't yet do what that showed.
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Još uvek ne mogu da postignu
to što je ovde prikazano.
to što je ovde prikazano.
15:05
When will they be able to?
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Kada će moći to da urade?
15:08
EM: I think we're still on track
for being able to go cross-country
for being able to go cross-country
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IM: Mislim da smo i dalje na dobrom putu
da uspemo preći državu
da uspemo preći državu
15:14
from LA to New York by the end
of the year, fully autonomous.
of the year, fully autonomous.
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od LA do Njujorka do kraja godine,
u potpunosti samoupravljajući.
u potpunosti samoupravljajući.
15:18
CA: OK, so by the end
of the year, you're saying,
of the year, you're saying,
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KA: U redu, dakle, do kraja godine, kažeš,
15:22
someone's going to sit in a Tesla
without touching the steering wheel,
without touching the steering wheel,
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neko će sesti u Teslu,
bez dodirivanja volana,
bez dodirivanja volana,
15:26
tap in "New York," off it goes.
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ukucaće "Njujork" i idemo.
15:28
EM: Yeah.
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IM: Da.
15:29
CA: Won't ever have to touch the wheel --
by the end of 2017.
by the end of 2017.
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KA: Ni u jednom trenutku neće morati
da dotakne volan - do kraja 2017.
da dotakne volan - do kraja 2017.
15:34
EM: Yeah. Essentially,
November or December of this year,
November or December of this year,
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IM: Da. U suštini, u novembru
ili decembru ove godine,
ili decembru ove godine,
15:38
we should be able to go all the way
from a parking lot in California
from a parking lot in California
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trebalo bi da uspemo da pređemo
ceo put od parkinga u Kaliforniji
ceo put od parkinga u Kaliforniji
15:43
to a parking lot in New York,
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do parkinga u Njujorku,
15:45
no controls touched at any point
during the entire journey.
during the entire journey.
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bez dodirivanja upravljača
tokom čitavog putovanja.
tokom čitavog putovanja.
15:48
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
15:50
CA: Amazing.
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KA: Neverovatno.
15:52
But part of that is possible
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Ali to je delimično moguće
15:53
because you've already got a fleet
of Teslas driving all these roads.
of Teslas driving all these roads.
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jer ti već imaš Teslinu flotu
koja se vozi svim tim putevima.
koja se vozi svim tim putevima.
15:56
You're accumulating a huge amount
of data of that national road system.
of data of that national road system.
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Sakupljaš ogromnu količinu podataka
o nacionalnom sistemu puteva.
o nacionalnom sistemu puteva.
16:03
EM: Yes, but the thing
that will be interesting
that will be interesting
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IM: Da, ali biće interesantno
16:06
is that I'm actually fairly confident
it will be able to do that route
it will be able to do that route
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to što sam ja prilično ubeđen
da će biti u stanju da pređe tu rutu
da će biti u stanju da pređe tu rutu
16:12
even if you change the route dynamically.
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čak iako dinamički promenite rutu.
16:16
So, it's fairly easy --
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Dakle, prilično je lako -
16:20
If you say I'm going to be really good
at one specific route, that's one thing,
at one specific route, that's one thing,
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ako kažete da ću da uspem na jednoj
specifičnoj ruti, to je jedna stvar,
specifičnoj ruti, to je jedna stvar,
16:23
but it should be able to go,
really be very good,
really be very good,
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ali bi trebalo da može da ide,
da bude veoma dobro,
da bude veoma dobro,
16:28
certainly once you enter a highway,
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zasigurno čim kročite na auto-put,
16:30
to go anywhere on the highway system
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da može da ide bilo gde sistemom auto-puta
16:33
in a given country.
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u datoj državi.
16:36
So it's not sort of limited
to LA to New York.
to LA to New York.
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Dakle, nije ograničeno
na od LA do Njujorka.
na od LA do Njujorka.
16:38
We could change it
and make it Seattle-Florida,
and make it Seattle-Florida,
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Mogli bismo ga promeniti
da ide Sijetl-Florida,
da ide Sijetl-Florida,
16:41
that day, in real time.
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tog dana u realnom vremenu.
16:44
So you were going from LA to New York.
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Dakle, išao si od LA do Njujorka.
16:46
Now go from LA to Toronto.
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Sad idi od LA do Toronta.
16:50
CA: So leaving aside
regulation for a second,
regulation for a second,
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KA: Ostavljajući za tren
po strani propise,
po strani propise,
16:53
in terms of the technology alone,
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samo u smislu tehnologije,
16:55
the time when someone
will be able to buy one of your cars
will be able to buy one of your cars
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vreme kada će neko
moći da kupi jedan od tvojih auta
moći da kupi jedan od tvojih auta
16:59
and literally just take the hands
off the wheel and go to sleep
off the wheel and go to sleep
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i bukvalno da digne ruke sa volana i zaspi
17:03
and wake up and find that they've arrived,
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i probudi se i shvati da je stigao,
17:05
how far away is that, to do that safely?
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koliko je to daleko, da bude bezbedno?
17:07
EM: I think that's about two years.
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IM: Mislim da se radi o dve godine.
17:09
So the real trick of it
is not how do you make it work
is not how do you make it work
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Dakle, stvarni trik
nije u tome da funkcioniše,
nije u tome da funkcioniše,
17:13
say 99.9 percent of the time,
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recimo, 99,9 procenata vremena
17:16
because, like, if a car crashes
one in a thousand times,
one in a thousand times,
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jer, ako se auto sudari
jednom u hiljadu puta,
jednom u hiljadu puta,
17:20
then you're probably still not going
to be comfortable falling asleep.
to be comfortable falling asleep.
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onda vam i dalje neće biti
svejedno da zaspite.
svejedno da zaspite.
17:27
You shouldn't be, certainly.
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Svakako da ne bi trebalo.
17:29
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
17:32
It's never going to be perfect.
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Nikada neće da bude savršeno.
17:34
No system is going to be perfect,
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Nijedan sistem neće da bude savršen,
17:36
but if you say it's perhaps --
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1044720
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ali ako kažete da je možda -
17:40
the car is unlikely to crash
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da su mali izgledi za sudar
17:42
in a hundred lifetimes,
or a thousand lifetimes,
or a thousand lifetimes,
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u stotinu života ili hiljadu života,
17:46
then people are like, OK, wow,
if I were to live a thousand lives,
if I were to live a thousand lives,
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onda su ljudi u fazonu, u redu, opa,
ako bih živeo hiljadu života,
ako bih živeo hiljadu života,
17:50
I would still most likely
never experience a crash,
never experience a crash,
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i dalje najverovatnije
ne bih nikad doživeo sudar,
ne bih nikad doživeo sudar,
17:53
then that's probably OK.
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onda je to verovatno u redu.
17:54
CA: To sleep.
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KA: Zaspati.
17:55
I guess the big concern of yours
is that people may actually
is that people may actually
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Pretpostavljam da te veoma brine
da bi ljude mogli zapravo
da bi ljude mogli zapravo
da zavedu da prerano
pomisle da je ovo bezbedno,
pomisle da je ovo bezbedno,
17:58
get seduced too early
to think that this is safe,
to think that this is safe,
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18:00
and that you'll have some horrible
incident happen that puts things back.
incident happen that puts things back.
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te da će da dođe do nekog užasnog
incidenta koji će da odloži sve.
incidenta koji će da odloži sve.
18:05
EM: Well, I think that the autonomy system
is likely to at least mitigate the crash,
is likely to at least mitigate the crash,
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IM: Pa, mislim da će samoupravljajući
sistem verovatno bar ublažiti sudar,
sistem verovatno bar ublažiti sudar,
18:11
except in rare circumstances.
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osim u retkim okolnostima.
18:14
The thing to appreciate
about vehicle safety
about vehicle safety
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Nešto što treba ceniti
kod bezbednosti vozila
kod bezbednosti vozila
18:16
is this is probabilistic.
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je da se radi o verovatnoći.
18:20
I mean, there's some chance that any time
a human driver gets in a car,
a human driver gets in a car,
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3456
Mislim, postoji mogućnost da će bilo kad
kad ljudski vozač uđe u auto,
kad ljudski vozač uđe u auto,
18:24
that they will have an accident
that is their fault.
that is their fault.
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svojom krivicom da izazove nesreću.
18:27
It's never zero.
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Nikad to nije nula.
18:29
So really the key threshold for autonomy
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Dakle, zaista ključni prag
kod samoupravljanja
kod samoupravljanja
18:33
is how much better does autonomy
need to be than a person
need to be than a person
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je koliko samoupravljanje
mora da bude bolje od osobe
mora da bude bolje od osobe
pre nego što mognete
da se oslonite na njega?
da se oslonite na njega?
18:38
before you can rely on it?
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1376
18:39
CA: But once you get
literally safe hands-off driving,
literally safe hands-off driving,
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3416
KA: Ali čim nam bude
bezbedna vožnja bez ruku,
bezbedna vožnja bez ruku,
čini se da će silina raskola
u celoj industriji biti ogromna
u celoj industriji biti ogromna
18:43
the power to disrupt
the whole industry seems massive,
the whole industry seems massive,
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2816
18:45
because at that point you've spoken
of people being able to buy a car,
of people being able to buy a car,
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jer rekao si da će u tom momentu
ljudi moći da kupe auto,
ljudi moći da kupe auto,
odbaciće ih na posao
i potom ga prepuštate
i potom ga prepuštate
18:50
drops you off at work,
and then you let it go
and then you let it go
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1118360
2136
18:52
and provide a sort of Uber-like
service to other people,
service to other people,
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1120520
3976
i pružate drugim ljudima
neku vrstu usluge nalik taksiju,
neku vrstu usluge nalik taksiju,
18:56
earn you money,
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zarađujete novac,
18:57
maybe even cover the cost
of your lease of that car,
of your lease of that car,
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2456
možda čak i pokrivate troškove
lizinga za taj auto,
lizinga za taj auto,
19:00
so you can kind of get a car for free.
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1856
te vam nekako auto dođe besplatno.
19:02
Is that really likely?
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Da li je to zaista moguće?
19:03
EM: Yeah. Absolutely
this is what will happen.
this is what will happen.
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2856
IM: Da. Apsolutno će to da se desi.
Imaćemo vozni park zajedničke autonomije,
19:06
So there will be a shared autonomy fleet
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1134280
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19:08
where you buy your car
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gde ćete da kupite auto
19:09
and you can choose
to use that car exclusively,
to use that car exclusively,
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i moći ćete da odaberete
da isključivo vi koristite auto,
da isključivo vi koristite auto,
19:13
you could choose to have it be used
only by friends and family,
only by friends and family,
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moći ćete da odaberete da ga koriste
jedino prijatelji i porodca,
jedino prijatelji i porodca,
19:16
only by other drivers
who are rated five star,
who are rated five star,
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5056
jedino drugi vozači
koji su ocenjeni sa pet zvezdica,
koji su ocenjeni sa pet zvezdica,
19:21
you can choose to share it sometimes
but not other times.
but not other times.
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moći ćete da odaberete da ga delite
nekad, a nekad ne.
nekad, a nekad ne.
19:28
That's 100 percent what will occur.
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To će da se desi sto posto.
19:31
It's just a question of when.
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1381
Samo je pitanje kada.
19:33
CA: Wow.
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KA: Opa!
19:35
So you mentioned the Semi
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2216
Pomenuo si semija
19:37
and I think you're planning
to announce this in September,
to announce this in September,
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1165440
2736
i mislim da planiraš
da ovo najaviš u septembru,
da ovo najaviš u septembru,
19:40
but I'm curious whether there's
anything you could show us today?
anything you could show us today?
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ali sam znatiželjan ima li nešto
št možeš danas da nam pokažeš?
št možeš danas da nam pokažeš?
19:43
EM: I will show you
a teaser shot of the truck.
a teaser shot of the truck.
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IM: Pokazaću vam sliku kamiona
da vam zagolicam maštu.
da vam zagolicam maštu.
19:47
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
19:49
It's alive.
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1936
Živ je.
19:51
CA: OK.
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KA: U redu.
IM: Ovo je definitivno slučaj
gde želimo da budemo oprezni
gde želimo da budemo oprezni
19:52
EM: That's definitely a case
where we want to be cautious
where we want to be cautious
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1180920
2696
19:55
about the autonomy features.
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1183640
1334
povodom izgleda autonomije.
19:58
Yeah.
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1216
Da.
19:59
(Laughter)
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1616
(Smeh)
20:01
CA: We can't see that much of it,
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KA: Ne vidimo mnogo,
20:02
but it doesn't look like
just a little friendly neighborhood truck.
just a little friendly neighborhood truck.
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3216
ali ne izgleda kao puki prijateljski
kamion iz komšiluka.
kamion iz komšiluka.
20:06
It looks kind of badass.
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Nekako izgleda opako.
20:07
What sort of semi is this?
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3160
Kakav je ovo polukamion?
20:11
EM: So this is a heavy duty,
long-range semitruck.
long-range semitruck.
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4576
IM: Dakle, ovo je polukamion
velike nosivosti za velike razdaljine.
velike nosivosti za velike razdaljine.
20:15
So it's the highest weight capability
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Ima najveću nosivost
20:20
and with long range.
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3056
i za velike je udaljenosti.
20:23
So essentially it's meant to alleviate
the heavy-duty trucking loads.
the heavy-duty trucking loads.
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1211120
5440
Te je u suštini namenjen za olakšavanje
tereta kamiona velike izdržljivosti.
tereta kamiona velike izdržljivosti.
20:29
And this is something which
people do not today think is possible.
people do not today think is possible.
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5296
A to je nešto što ljudi danas
smatraju da je nemoguće.
smatraju da je nemoguće.
20:34
They think the truck doesn't have enough
power or it doesn't have enough range,
power or it doesn't have enough range,
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1222600
3736
Smatraju da kamion nema dovoljno snage,
niti ima dovoljno dometa,
niti ima dovoljno dometa,
20:38
and then with the Tesla Semi
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1226360
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a onda sa teslinim semijem
20:40
we want to show that no, an electric truck
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1228920
2656
želimo da pokažemo kako ne,
električni kamion
električni kamion
20:43
actually can out-torque any diesel semi.
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1231600
6016
zapravo može da ima veću obrtnu moć
od bilo kog dizel polukamiona.
od bilo kog dizel polukamiona.
20:49
And if you had a tug-of-war competition,
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A kad biste imali
takmičenje u izdržljivosti,
takmičenje u izdržljivosti,
20:53
the Tesla Semi
will tug the diesel semi uphill.
will tug the diesel semi uphill.
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1241800
5056
Teslin semi bi odgurao
dizel polukamion uz brdo.
dizel polukamion uz brdo.
20:58
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
21:01
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
21:03
CA: That's pretty cool.
And short term, these aren't driverless.
And short term, these aren't driverless.
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1251040
3016
KA: To je prilično sjajno.
A za sad, nisu samoupravljajući.
A za sad, nisu samoupravljajući.
21:06
These are going to be trucks
that truck drivers want to drive.
that truck drivers want to drive.
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1254080
3320
Ovo će da budu kamioni
koje će kamiondžije želeti da voze.
koje će kamiondžije želeti da voze.
21:10
EM: Yes. So what will be
really fun about this
really fun about this
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1258480
2616
IM: Da. Uistinu zabavno
kod ovoga će da bude
kod ovoga će da bude
21:13
is you have a flat torque RPM curve
with an electric motor,
with an electric motor,
405
1261120
5376
to što imate ravnu RPM krivu obrtnog
momenta sa električnim motorom,
momenta sa električnim motorom,
dok kod dizel motora ili bilo kog auta
s motorom s unutrašnjim sagorevanjem,
s motorom s unutrašnjim sagorevanjem,
21:18
whereas with a diesel motor or any kind
of internal combustion engine car,
of internal combustion engine car,
406
1266520
3496
21:22
you've got a torque RPM curve
that looks like a hill.
that looks like a hill.
407
1270040
2600
imate RPM krivu obrtnog momenta
koja izgleda kao brdo.
koja izgleda kao brdo.
21:25
So this will be a very spry truck.
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1273840
2936
Te će ovo da bude veoma žustar kamion.
21:28
You can drive this
around like a sports car.
around like a sports car.
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Možete da ga vozikate
kao sportski automobil.
kao sportski automobil.
21:31
There's no gears.
It's, like, single speed.
It's, like, single speed.
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Nema brzina. To je poput jedne brzine.
21:34
CA: There's a great movie
to be made here somewhere.
to be made here somewhere.
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KA: Ovde negde čuči sjajan film.
Ne znam o kakvom filmu se radi
i sumnjam da ima srećan kraj,
i sumnjam da ima srećan kraj,
21:36
I don't know what it is
and I don't know that it ends well,
and I don't know that it ends well,
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21:39
but it's a great movie.
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ali je film sjajan.
21:40
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
21:41
EM: It's quite bizarre test-driving.
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IM: Test vožnja je bizarna.
21:44
When I was driving the test prototype
for the first truck.
for the first truck.
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Dok sam vozio prototip
za testiranje ovog kamiona.
za testiranje ovog kamiona.
21:48
It's really weird,
because you're driving around
because you're driving around
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Zaista je čudno jer se vozite okolo
21:50
and you're just so nimble,
and you're in this giant truck.
and you're in this giant truck.
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i prosto ste tako okretni,
a u ovom ste džinovskom kamionu.
a u ovom ste džinovskom kamionu.
21:53
CA: Wait, you've
already driven a prototype?
already driven a prototype?
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KA: Stani, već si vozio prototip?
21:57
EM: Yeah, I drove it
around the parking lot,
around the parking lot,
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IM: Da, vozio sam ga po parkingu
i bio sam u fazonu: ovo je ludo.
21:59
and I was like, this is crazy.
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22:00
CA: Wow. This is no vaporware.
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KA: Au. Ovo nije vejporvejv.
IM: Prosto je kao,
voziti ovaj džinovski kamion
voziti ovaj džinovski kamion
22:03
EM: It's just like,
driving this giant truck
driving this giant truck
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22:05
and making these mad maneuvers.
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i praviti te obesne manevre.
22:07
CA: This is cool.
OK, from a really badass picture
OK, from a really badass picture
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KA: To je sjajno.
U redu, sa zaista opake slike
U redu, sa zaista opake slike
22:09
to a kind of less badass picture.
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na nekako manje opaku sliku.
22:12
This is just a cute house
from "Desperate Housewives" or something.
from "Desperate Housewives" or something.
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Ovo je tek simpatična kuća
iz "Očajnih domaćica" ili slično.
iz "Očajnih domaćica" ili slično.
22:15
What on earth is going on here?
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Šta se, pobogu, dešava ovde?
22:18
EM: Well, this illustrates
the picture of the future
the picture of the future
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IM: Pa, ovo ilustruje sliku budućnosti,
22:21
that I think is how things will evolve.
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kako ja mislim da će se stvari razvijati.
22:24
You've got an electric car
in the driveway.
in the driveway.
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Imate električni auto na prilazu.
22:26
If you look in between
the electric car and the house,
the electric car and the house,
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Ako pogledate između
električnog auta i kuće,
električnog auta i kuće,
22:30
there are actually three Powerwalls
stacked up against the side of the house,
stacked up against the side of the house,
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imate zapravo tri Teslina akumulatora
poređana uz bočni zid kuće,
poređana uz bočni zid kuće,
22:34
and then that house roof is a solar roof.
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a onda krov kuće je solarni.
22:37
So that's an actual solar glass roof.
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Dakle, to je pravi krov
od solarnog stakla.
od solarnog stakla.
22:39
CA: OK.
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KA: U redu.
22:40
EM: That's a picture of a real --
well, admittedly, it's a real fake house.
well, admittedly, it's a real fake house.
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IM: To je slika stvarne - pa, priznajem,
to je stvarna kobajagi kuća.
to je stvarna kobajagi kuća.
22:44
That's a real fake house.
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To je stvarna kobajagi kuća.
22:46
(Laughter)
439
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(Smeh)
22:49
CA: So these roof tiles,
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KA: Dakle, ove krovne cigle,
22:51
some of them have in them
basically solar power, the ability to --
basically solar power, the ability to --
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1359480
6136
neke u sebi sadrže solarnu energiju,
u suštini, mogućnost da -
u suštini, mogućnost da -
22:57
EM: Yeah. Solar glass tiles
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IM: Da. Solarne staklene cigle
22:59
where you can adjust
the texture and the color
the texture and the color
443
1367360
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gde možete da prilagodite teksturu i boju
23:04
to a very fine-grained level,
444
1372480
1976
do veoma izglančanog nivoa,
23:06
and then there's
sort of microlouvers in the glass,
sort of microlouvers in the glass,
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1374480
5576
a potom imamo nešto kao
mikrovenecijanere od stakla,
mikrovenecijanere od stakla,
23:12
such that when you're looking
at the roof from street level
at the roof from street level
446
1380080
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takve da kada posmatrate
krov sa nivoa ulice
krov sa nivoa ulice
23:15
or close to street level,
447
1383560
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ili nivoa bliže ulici,
23:17
all the tiles look the same
448
1385280
2376
sve cigle izgledaju isto
23:19
whether there is a solar cell
behind it or not.
behind it or not.
449
1387680
5080
bilo da je solarna ćelija iza njih ili ne.
23:26
So you have an even color
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Te imate ujednačenu boju
23:29
from the ground level.
451
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sa nivoa ulica.
23:32
If you were to look at it
from a helicopter,
from a helicopter,
452
1400960
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Ako biste pogledali krov iz helikoptera,
23:35
you would be actually able
to look through and see
to look through and see
453
1403080
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zapravo biste bili u stanju
da vidite kroz njega i zapazite
da vidite kroz njega i zapazite
23:37
that some of the glass tiles have
a solar cell behind them and some do not.
a solar cell behind them and some do not.
454
1405480
4016
da neke staklene cigle imaju
solarnu ćeliju ispod, a neke nemaju.
solarnu ćeliju ispod, a neke nemaju.
23:41
You can't tell from street level.
455
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Sa ulice se ne vidi razlika.
23:43
CA: You put them in the ones
that are likely to see a lot of sun,
that are likely to see a lot of sun,
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3056
KA: Stavljate ćelije iza onih
koje su najizloženije suncu,
koje su najizloženije suncu,
23:46
and that makes these roofs
super affordable, right?
super affordable, right?
457
1414240
2376
a stoga su ovi krovovi
superpristupačni, zar ne?
superpristupačni, zar ne?
23:48
They're not that much more expensive
than just tiling the roof.
than just tiling the roof.
458
1416640
2976
Nisu toliko skuplji
od običnih krovnih cigli?
od običnih krovnih cigli?
23:51
EM: Yeah.
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1419640
1200
IM: Da.
23:53
We're very confident
that the cost of the roof
that the cost of the roof
460
1421840
2600
Veoma smo ubeđeni da će cena krova
23:57
plus the cost of electricity --
461
1425840
1920
plus troškovi struje -
24:01
A solar glass roof will be less
than the cost of a normal roof
than the cost of a normal roof
462
1429920
2936
Krov od solarnog stakla
će da košta manje od normalnog krova
će da košta manje od normalnog krova
24:04
plus the cost of electricity.
463
1432880
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plus troškovi struje.
24:06
So in other words,
464
1434320
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Dakle, drugim rečima,
24:07
this will be economically a no-brainer,
465
1435600
4336
ovo će ekonomski biti bez dileme,
24:11
we think it will look great,
466
1439960
1696
mislimo da će odlično da izgleda
24:13
and it will last --
467
1441680
2136
i trajaće -
24:15
We thought about having
the warranty be infinity,
the warranty be infinity,
468
1443840
3056
Mislili smo da garancija
bude do beskonačnosti,
bude do beskonačnosti,
24:18
but then people thought,
469
1446920
1216
ali su ljudi smatrali,
24:20
well, that might sound
like were just talking rubbish,
like were just talking rubbish,
470
1448160
2576
pa, to bi moglo da zvuči
kao da pričamo gluposti,
kao da pričamo gluposti,
24:22
but actually this is toughened glass.
471
1450760
5616
ali ovo je zapravo ojačano staklo.
24:28
Well after the house has collapsed
472
1456400
2896
Pa, nakon što se kuća sruši
24:31
and there's nothing there,
473
1459320
1896
i ništa više ne bude tu,
24:33
the glass tiles will still be there.
474
1461240
3536
staklene cigle će da budu tu.
24:36
(Applause)
475
1464800
1576
(Aplauz)
24:38
CA: I mean, this is cool.
476
1466400
1736
KA: Mislim, ovo je sjajno.
24:40
So you're rolling this out
in a couple week's time, I think,
in a couple week's time, I think,
477
1468160
2856
Dakle, krećeš s ovim,
za nekoliko nedelja, mislim,
za nekoliko nedelja, mislim,
24:43
with four different roofing types.
478
1471040
2536
sa četiri različita tipa krova.
24:45
EM: Yeah, we're starting off
with two, two initially,
with two, two initially,
479
1473600
2536
IM: Da, započinjemo sa dva, prvobitno dva,
24:48
and the second two
will be introduced early next year.
will be introduced early next year.
480
1476160
3176
a druga dva će da budu
predstavljena početkom sledeće godine.
predstavljena početkom sledeće godine.
24:51
CA: And what's the scale of ambition here?
481
1479360
2056
KA: I, kolike su ti ambicije ovde?
24:53
How many houses do you believe
could end up having this type of roofing?
could end up having this type of roofing?
482
1481440
5520
Koliko misliš da će kuća
na kraju da ima ovaj tip krova?
na kraju da ima ovaj tip krova?
24:59
EM: I think eventually
483
1487760
1400
IM: Mislim da će vremenom
25:02
almost all houses will have a solar roof.
484
1490560
3640
skoro sve kuće da imaju solarni krov.
25:07
The thing is to consider
the time scale here
the time scale here
485
1495880
3536
Ovde ćemo da uzmemo u obzir
vremenski okvir
vremenski okvir
25:11
to be probably on the order
486
1499440
2456
da je verovatno u ravni
25:13
of 40 or 50 years.
487
1501920
3176
od 40 ili 50 godina.
25:17
So on average, a roof
is replaced every 20 to 25 years.
is replaced every 20 to 25 years.
488
1505120
4880
Dakle, u proseku,
svako 20 do 25 godina krov se menja.
svako 20 do 25 godina krov se menja.
25:23
But you don't start replacing
all roofs immediately.
all roofs immediately.
489
1511400
3336
Ali ne menjate krov odjednom.
25:26
But eventually,
if you say were to fast-forward
if you say were to fast-forward
490
1514760
3336
Već vremenom,
ako biste, recimo, premotali,
ako biste, recimo, premotali,
25:30
to say 15 years from now,
491
1518120
3456
recimo, 15 godina unapred,
25:33
it will be unusual to have a roof
that does not have solar.
that does not have solar.
492
1521600
3600
biće neobično imati krov
koji nema solarne ćelije.
koji nema solarne ćelije.
KA: Da li postoji kognitivni model
koji ljudi ne razumeju ovde
koji ljudi ne razumeju ovde
25:37
CA: Is there a mental model thing
that people don't get here
that people don't get here
493
1525840
2856
25:40
that because of the shift in the cost,
the economics of solar power,
the economics of solar power,
494
1528720
4416
da će zbog izmene cene,
ekonomičnosti solarne energije,
ekonomičnosti solarne energije,
25:45
most houses actually have
enough sunlight on their roof
enough sunlight on their roof
495
1533160
4096
većina kuća zapravo imati
dovoljno sunčeve svetlosti na krovu
dovoljno sunčeve svetlosti na krovu
da snabde skoro sve njihove potrebe.
25:49
pretty much to power all of their needs.
496
1537280
2056
25:51
If you could capture the power,
497
1539360
1896
Ako bismo mogli da zarobimo energiju,
mogla bi da zadovolji
skoro sve naše potrebe.
skoro sve naše potrebe.
25:53
it could pretty much
power all their needs.
power all their needs.
498
1541280
2056
25:55
You could go off-grid, kind of.
499
1543360
1536
Mogli bi da se odsečete sa mreže.
25:56
EM: It depends on where you are
500
1544920
1536
IM: Zavisi gde se nalazite
25:58
and what the house size is
relative to the roof area,
relative to the roof area,
501
1546480
3256
i koja je veličina kuće
u odnosu na površinu krova,
u odnosu na površinu krova,
26:01
but it's a fair statement to say
502
1549760
1856
ali je pošteno reći
26:03
that most houses in the US
have enough roof area
have enough roof area
503
1551640
4816
da mnoge kuće u SAD-u
imaju dovoljno krovne površine
imaju dovoljno krovne površine
26:08
to power all the needs of the house.
504
1556480
1960
da opskrbe sve potrebe kuće za energijom.
26:11
CA: So the key to the economics
505
1559800
3176
KA: Dakle, ključno za ekonomičnost
26:15
of the cars, the Semi, of these houses
506
1563000
4016
automobila, semija, ovih kuća
26:19
is the falling price
of lithium-ion batteries,
of lithium-ion batteries,
507
1567040
3896
je pad cene litijum-jonskih baterija,
26:22
which you've made a huge bet on as Tesla.
508
1570960
2496
na koje si stavio ogroman ulog Teslom.
Na razne načine se radi
skoro o suštinskoj sposobnosti.
skoro o suštinskoj sposobnosti.
26:25
In many ways, that's almost
the core competency.
the core competency.
509
1573480
2256
26:27
And you've decided
510
1575760
2256
I ti si odlučio
26:30
that to really, like, own that competency,
511
1578040
5216
da zaista ovladaš tom sposobnošću,
26:35
you just have to build
the world's largest manufacturing plant
the world's largest manufacturing plant
512
1583280
3456
prosto si morao da sagradiš
najveću na svetu fabriku
najveću na svetu fabriku
26:38
to double the world's supply
of lithium-ion batteries,
of lithium-ion batteries,
513
1586760
3136
da udvostručiš svetske zalihe
litijum-jonskih baterija,
litijum-jonskih baterija,
26:41
with this guy. What is this?
514
1589920
2296
s ovim momkom. Šta je ovo?
26:44
EM: Yeah, so that's the Gigafactory,
515
1592240
3456
IM: Da, dakle, to je Gigafabrika,
26:47
progress so far on the Gigafactory.
516
1595720
2696
dosadašnji napredak na Gigafabrici.
26:50
Eventually, you can sort of roughly see
517
1598440
1896
Vremenom ćete otprilike moći da vidite
26:52
that there's sort of
a diamond shape overall,
a diamond shape overall,
518
1600360
2936
da tu imamo, sve u svemu,
dijamantski oblik,
dijamantski oblik,
26:55
and when it's fully done,
it'll look like a giant diamond,
it'll look like a giant diamond,
519
1603320
4616
a kada bude gotova u potpunosti,
izgledaće poput džinovskog dijamanta,
izgledaće poput džinovskog dijamanta,
26:59
or that's the idea behind it,
520
1607960
2216
barem je takva zamisao,
i poravnata je sa stvarnim severom.
27:02
and it's aligned on true north.
521
1610200
1496
27:03
It's a small detail.
522
1611720
1736
To je maleni detalj.
27:05
CA: And capable of producing, eventually,
523
1613480
3896
KA: I u stanju je da proizvede, vremenom,
27:09
like a hundred gigawatt hours
of batteries a year.
of batteries a year.
524
1617400
3176
otprilike stotinu gigavat časova
baterija godišnje.
baterija godišnje.
27:12
EM: A hundred gigawatt hours.
We think probably more, but yeah.
We think probably more, but yeah.
525
1620600
2976
IM: Stotinu gigavat časova.
Verujemo i više, ali da.
Verujemo i više, ali da.
27:15
CA: And they're actually
being produced right now.
being produced right now.
526
1623600
2376
KA: I to se zapravo trenutno proizvodi.
27:18
EM: They're in production already.
CA: You guys put out this video.
CA: You guys put out this video.
527
1626000
3176
IM: To se trenutno već proizvodi.
KA: Momci, pustite snimak.
KA: Momci, pustite snimak.
Mislim, da li je ovo ubrzano?
27:21
I mean, is that speeded up?
528
1629200
1336
27:22
EM: That's the slowed down version.
529
1630560
1696
IM: To je usporena verzija.
27:24
(Laughter)
530
1632280
1776
(Smeh)
27:26
CA: How fast does it actually go?
531
1634080
2336
KA: Koliko je zapravo brzo?
27:28
EM: Well, when it's running at full speed,
532
1636440
2816
IM: Pa, kad je u punoj brzini,
27:31
you can't actually see the cells
without a strobe light.
without a strobe light.
533
1639280
3936
ne možete zapravo da vidite ćelije
bez stroboskopa.
bez stroboskopa.
27:35
It's just blur.
534
1643240
1200
Sve je zamagljeno.
27:36
(Laughter)
535
1644540
3336
(Smeh)
27:40
CA: One of your core ideas, Elon,
about what makes an exciting future
about what makes an exciting future
536
1648000
3576
KA: Jedna od tvojih ključnih ideja, Ilone,
o uzbudljivoj budućnosti
o uzbudljivoj budućnosti
27:43
is a future where we no longer
feel guilty about energy.
feel guilty about energy.
537
1651600
2640
je budućnost u kojoj nas savest
više ne grize zbog energije.
više ne grize zbog energije.
27:47
Help us picture this.
538
1655480
1416
Pomozi nam da to zamislimo.
27:48
How many Gigafactories, if you like,
does it take to get us there?
does it take to get us there?
539
1656920
5016
Koliko Gigafabrika, ako hoćeš,
je potrebno da to ostvarimo?
je potrebno da to ostvarimo?
27:53
EM: It's about a hundred, roughly.
540
1661960
1736
IM: Radi se o oko stotinu, ugrubo.
27:55
It's not 10, it's not a thousand.
541
1663720
1736
Ne radi se o 10, niti hiljadu.
27:57
Most likely a hundred.
542
1665480
1360
Najverovatnije stotinu.
28:00
CA: See, I find this amazing.
543
1668040
1656
KA: Vidiš, to mi je neverovatno.
28:01
You can picture what it would take
544
1669720
3976
Možeš da zamisliš šta je potrebno
28:05
to move the world
off this vast fossil fuel thing.
off this vast fossil fuel thing.
545
1673720
3256
da se svet pomeri sa fosilnih goriva.
28:09
It's like you're building one,
546
1677000
2576
Čini se da jednu gradiš,
28:11
it costs five billion dollars,
547
1679600
2856
košta pet milijardi dolara,
28:14
or whatever, five to 10 billion dollars.
548
1682480
2136
ili tako nešto,
pet do 10 milijardi dolara.
pet do 10 milijardi dolara.
28:16
Like, it's kind of cool
that you can picture that project.
that you can picture that project.
549
1684640
3616
Nekako je sjajno što možeš
da zamisliš taj projekat.
da zamisliš taj projekat.
28:20
And you're planning to do, at Tesla --
announce another two this year.
announce another two this year.
550
1688280
4480
I planiraš, u Tesli -
da ove godine najaviš još dve.
da ove godine najaviš još dve.
28:25
EM: I think we'll announce locations
551
1693480
2856
IM: Mislim da ćemo da najavimo lokacije
28:28
for somewhere between two
and four Gigafactories later this year.
and four Gigafactories later this year.
552
1696360
3736
za nešto između dve i četiri
Gigafabrike, kasnije u toku godine.
Gigafabrike, kasnije u toku godine.
28:32
Yeah, probably four.
553
1700120
1440
Da, verovatno četiri.
28:34
CA: Whoa.
554
1702040
1616
KA: Opa!
28:35
(Applause)
555
1703680
2616
(Aplauz)
28:38
No more teasing from you for here?
556
1706320
4056
Nećeš nam ništa otkriti?
28:42
Like -- where, continent?
557
1710400
2800
Kao - gde, kontinent?
28:47
You can say no.
558
1715480
1200
Možeš da kažeš ne.
28:49
EM: We need to address a global market.
559
1717440
3776
IM: Moramo da se okrenemo
globalnom tržištu.
globalnom tržištu.
28:53
CA: OK.
560
1721240
1216
KA: U redu.
28:54
(Laughter)
561
1722480
1336
(Smeh)
28:55
This is cool.
562
1723840
1200
Ovo je sjajno.
28:59
I think we should talk for --
563
1727480
4240
Mislim da bismo trebali da razgovaramo -
29:04
Actually, double mark it.
564
1732560
1616
Zapravo, dvostruko je podvučeno.
29:06
I'm going to ask you one question
about politics, only one.
about politics, only one.
565
1734200
4096
Upitaću te jedno pitanje
o politici, samo jedno.
o politici, samo jedno.
29:10
I'm kind of sick of politics,
but I do want to ask you this.
but I do want to ask you this.
566
1738320
3256
Nekako mi je muka od politike,
ali želim ovo da te pitam.
ali želim ovo da te pitam.
29:13
You're on a body now
giving advice to a guy --
giving advice to a guy --
567
1741600
6336
Trenutno si u odboru,
savetuješ ovog čoveka -
savetuješ ovog čoveka -
29:19
EM: Who?
568
1747960
1216
IM: Kojeg?
29:21
CA: Who has said he doesn't
really believe in climate change,
really believe in climate change,
569
1749200
2896
KA: Koji je rekao da zaista
ne veruje u klimatske promene
ne veruje u klimatske promene
29:24
and there's a lot of people out there
who think you shouldn't be doing that.
who think you shouldn't be doing that.
570
1752120
4336
i ima mnogo ljudi u svetu
koji misle da ne bi trebalo to da radiš.
koji misle da ne bi trebalo to da radiš.
29:28
They'd like you to walk away from that.
571
1756480
1896
Želeli bi da to napustiš.
29:30
What would you say to them?
572
1758400
1360
Šta bi im rekao?
29:32
EM: Well, I think that first of all,
573
1760720
3616
IM: Pa, mislim da pre svega,
29:36
I'm just on two advisory councils
574
1764360
2536
na svega sam dva savetodavna odbora
29:38
where the format consists
of going around the room
of going around the room
575
1766920
2816
čiji se format sastoji
od šetanja prostorijom
od šetanja prostorijom
29:41
and asking people's opinion on things,
576
1769760
2896
i traženja mišljenja ljudi o stvarima
29:44
and so there's like a meeting
every month or two.
every month or two.
577
1772680
3760
i imamo nekakav sastanak
svakih mesec-dva dana.
svakih mesec-dva dana.
29:49
That's the sum total of my contribution.
578
1777560
3216
To je ukupni zbir mog doprinosa.
29:52
But I think to the degree
that there are people in the room
that there are people in the room
579
1780800
2776
Ali mislim da donekle
ima ljudi u toj prostoriji
ima ljudi u toj prostoriji
29:55
who are arguing in favor
of doing something about climate change,
of doing something about climate change,
580
1783600
4736
koji se zalažu za to da se učini nešto
povodom klimatskih promena
povodom klimatskih promena
30:00
or social issues,
581
1788360
4000
ili društvenih pitanja.
30:06
I've used the meetings I've had thus far
582
1794520
3216
Iskoristio sam dosadašnje sastanke
30:09
to argue in favor of immigration
and in favor of climate change.
and in favor of climate change.
583
1797760
4856
da govorim u ime imigracije
i u ime klimatskih promena.
i u ime klimatskih promena.
30:14
(Applause)
584
1802640
1936
(Aplauz)
30:16
And if I hadn't done that,
585
1804600
2096
A da nisam uradio tako,
30:18
that wasn't on the agenda before.
586
1806720
2816
to ne bi bilo na dnevnom redu.
30:21
So maybe nothing will happen,
but at least the words were said.
but at least the words were said.
587
1809560
4240
Te, možda se ništa neće desiti,
ali je barem nešto rečeno.
ali je barem nešto rečeno.
30:26
CA: OK.
588
1814680
1216
KA. U redu.
30:27
(Applause)
589
1815920
2880
(Aplauz)
30:31
So let's talk SpaceX and Mars.
590
1819800
3536
Razgovarajmo o Spejs iksu i Marsu.
30:35
Last time you were here,
591
1823360
1456
Kad si poslednji put bio ovde,
30:36
you spoke about what seemed like
a kind of incredibly ambitious dream
a kind of incredibly ambitious dream
592
1824840
3696
govorio si o nečemu što se činilo
kao neverovatno ambiciozan san,
kao neverovatno ambiciozan san,
30:40
to develop rockets
that were actually reusable.
that were actually reusable.
593
1828560
4296
o pravljenju raketa
koje zapravo imaju vešestruku upotrebu.
koje zapravo imaju vešestruku upotrebu.
30:44
And you've only gone and done it.
594
1832880
2136
I prosto si se zaputio i to uradio.
30:47
EM: Finally. It took a long time.
595
1835040
1616
IM: Konačno. Potrajalo je dugo.
30:48
CA: Talk us through this.
What are we looking at here?
What are we looking at here?
596
1836680
2576
KA: Objasni nam ovo. U šta gledamo?
IM: Dakle, ovo je jedan od naših
raketnih akceleratora
raketnih akceleratora
30:51
EM: So this is one of our rocket boosters
597
1839280
2136
30:53
coming back from
very high and fast in space.
very high and fast in space.
598
1841440
4576
koji ide veoma visoko i brzo u svemiru.
30:58
So just delivered the upper stage
599
1846040
3256
Upravo je gornji nivo razvio
31:01
at high velocity.
600
1849320
2096
veliku brzinu.
31:03
I think this might have been
at sort of Mach 7 or so,
at sort of Mach 7 or so,
601
1851440
3856
Mislim da je bila u rangu
Mahovog broja 7 ili slično,
Mahovog broja 7 ili slično,
31:07
delivery of the upper stage.
602
1855320
1960
to je gornji nivo razvio.
31:10
(Applause)
603
1858880
2000
(Aplauz)
31:13
CA: So that was a sped-up --
604
1861840
1496
CA: Dakle, to je ubrzana -
31:15
EM: That was the slowed down version.
605
1863360
1816
IM: To je usporena verzija.
31:17
(Laughter)
606
1865200
1336
(Smeh)
31:18
CA: I thought that was
the sped-up version.
the sped-up version.
607
1866560
2496
KA: Mislio sam da se radi
o ubrzanom snimku.
o ubrzanom snimku.
31:21
But I mean, that's amazing,
608
1869080
1336
Ali, mislim, to je sjajno,
31:22
and several of these failed
609
1870440
1336
a nekoliko ovih je omanulo,
31:23
before you finally
figured out how to do it,
figured out how to do it,
610
1871800
2936
pre nego što ste konačno
shvatili kako da to postignete,
shvatili kako da to postignete,
31:26
but now you've done this,
what, five or six times?
what, five or six times?
611
1874760
2896
ali sad ste to postigli,
koliko, pet ili šest puta?
koliko, pet ili šest puta?
31:29
EM: We're at eight or nine.
612
1877680
2296
IM: Na osmom smo ili devetom.
31:32
CA: And for the first time,
613
1880000
1616
KA: I prvi put,
31:33
you've actually reflown
one of the rockets that landed.
one of the rockets that landed.
614
1881640
3136
zapravo ste ponovo leteli
u jednoj od raketa koja se prizemljila.
u jednoj od raketa koja se prizemljila.
31:36
EM: Yeah, so we landed the rocket booster
615
1884800
2776
IM: Da, prizemljili smo
raketni akcelerator
raketni akcelerator
i zatim ga pnovo pripremili za let
i leteli ponovo njime,
i leteli ponovo njime,
31:39
and then prepped it for flight again
and flew it again,
and flew it again,
616
1887600
2616
31:42
so it's the first reflight
of an orbital booster
of an orbital booster
617
1890240
5176
pa je to prvi ponovni let
orbitalnog akceleratora
orbitalnog akceleratora
31:47
where that reflight is relevant.
618
1895440
1976
gde je taj ponovni let relevantan.
Važno je shvatiti da je višestruka
upotrebljivost jedino relevantna,
upotrebljivost jedino relevantna,
31:49
So it's important to appreciate
that reusability is only relevant
that reusability is only relevant
619
1897440
3176
31:52
if it is rapid and complete.
620
1900640
4080
ako je brza i potpuna.
31:57
So like an aircraft or a car,
621
1905400
3256
Dakle, poput aviona ili auta,
32:00
the reusability is rapid and complete.
622
1908680
2376
višestruka upotreba je brza i potpuna.
32:03
You do not send your aircraft
to Boeing in-between flights.
to Boeing in-between flights.
623
1911080
5056
Ne šaljete avion boingu između letova.
32:08
CA: Right. So this is allowing you
to dream of this really ambitious idea
to dream of this really ambitious idea
624
1916160
4816
KA: Tačno. Dakle, ovo ti omogućava
da sanjaš o toj krajnje ambicioznoj ideji
da sanjaš o toj krajnje ambicioznoj ideji
32:13
of sending many, many, many people to Mars
625
1921000
3176
da pošalješ mnoge,
mnoge, mnoge ljude na Mars
mnoge, mnoge ljude na Mars
32:16
in, what, 10 or 20 years time, I guess.
626
1924200
2416
za, koliko, 10 ili 20 godina,
pretpostavljam.
pretpostavljam.
32:18
EM: Yeah.
627
1926640
1376
IM: Da.
32:20
CA: And you've designed
this outrageous rocket to do it.
this outrageous rocket to do it.
628
1928040
3416
KA: I dizajnirao si ovu
zaprepašćujuću raketu za to.
zaprepašćujuću raketu za to.
32:23
Help us understand
the scale of this thing.
the scale of this thing.
629
1931480
2416
Pomozi nam da razumemo razmere ovoga.
32:25
EM: Well, visually
you can see that's a person.
you can see that's a person.
630
1933920
4880
IM: Pa, vizuelno možete
da spazite osobu pored.
da spazite osobu pored.
32:32
Yeah, and that's the vehicle.
631
1940680
1816
Da, a to je vozilo.
32:34
(Laughter)
632
1942520
1656
(Smeh)
32:36
CA: So if that was a skyscraper,
633
1944200
1736
KA: Dakle, da je to neboder,
32:37
that's like, did I read that,
a 40-story skyscraper?
a 40-story skyscraper?
634
1945960
3336
to je poput, da li sam tako pročitao,
poput 40-ospratnice?
poput 40-ospratnice?
32:41
EM: Probably a little more, yeah.
635
1949320
1600
IM: Verovatno je malo više, da.
32:44
The thrust level of this is really --
636
1952360
4000
Stepen potiska ovoga je zaista -
32:50
This configuration is about four times
the thrust of the Saturn V moon rocket.
the thrust of the Saturn V moon rocket.
637
1958360
4920
Potisak konfiguracije je oko četiri puta
veći od potiska rakete Saturn V.
veći od potiska rakete Saturn V.
32:56
CA: Four times the thrust of the biggest
rocket humanity ever created before.
rocket humanity ever created before.
638
1964440
4856
KA: Četiri puta veći potisak od najveće
rakete koju je čovečanstvo ikad napravilo.
rakete koju je čovečanstvo ikad napravilo.
33:01
EM: Yeah. Yeah.
639
1969320
1200
IM: Da. Da.
33:04
CA: As one does.
EM: Yeah.
EM: Yeah.
640
1972640
1456
CA: Kako obično biva.
IM: Da.
IM: Da.
33:06
(Laughter)
641
1974120
2976
(Smeh)
33:09
In units of 747, a 747 is only about
a quarter of a million pounds of thrust,
a quarter of a million pounds of thrust,
642
1977120
5976
U jedinicama boinga 747, 747 je tek oko
113 398 kilograma potiska,
113 398 kilograma potiska,
33:15
so for every 10 million pounds of thrust,
643
1983120
3096
pa za svaka 4,5 miliona kilograma potiska,
33:18
there's 40 747s.
644
1986240
1696
imamo 40 boinga 747.
33:19
So this would be the thrust equivalent
of 120 747s, with all engines blazing.
of 120 747s, with all engines blazing.
645
1987960
6256
Dakle, ovo bi bio potisak jednak
120 boinga 747, s užarenim motorima.
120 boinga 747, s užarenim motorima.
33:26
CA: And so even with a machine
designed to escape Earth's gravity,
designed to escape Earth's gravity,
646
1994240
4216
KA: Čak i sa mašinom dizajniranom
da odoli Zemljinoj gravitaciji,
da odoli Zemljinoj gravitaciji,
mislim da si mi poslednji put rekao
33:30
I think you told me last time
647
1998480
1416
33:31
this thing could actually
take a fully loaded 747,
take a fully loaded 747,
648
1999920
3256
da ovo zapravo može da primi krcat 747,
33:35
people, cargo, everything,
649
2003200
2336
sa sve ljudima, prtljagom, svim,
33:37
into orbit.
650
2005560
1256
u orbitu.
33:38
EM: Exactly. This can take
a fully loaded 747 with maximum fuel,
a fully loaded 747 with maximum fuel,
651
2006840
5136
IM: Upravo. Ovo može da primi
krcat 747 sa punim rezervoarom,
krcat 747 sa punim rezervoarom,
33:44
maximum passengers,
maximum cargo on the 747 --
maximum cargo on the 747 --
652
2012000
4496
popunjenim sedištima,
maksimalnim prtljagom na 747 -
maksimalnim prtljagom na 747 -
33:48
this can take it as cargo.
653
2016520
2240
ova raketa-nosač to može
da primi kao prtljag.
da primi kao prtljag.
33:52
CA: So based on this,
654
2020080
1736
KA: Dakle, na osnovu ovoga,
33:53
you presented recently
this Interplanetary Transport System
this Interplanetary Transport System
655
2021840
4816
skoro si predstavio
Međuplanetarni transportni sistem,
Međuplanetarni transportni sistem,
33:58
which is visualized this way.
656
2026680
3376
koji je ovako vizualizovan.
34:02
This is a scene you picture in, what,
30 years time? 20 years time?
30 years time? 20 years time?
657
2030080
4080
Ovo je prizor koji zamišljaš
za, koliko, 30 godina? 20 godina?
za, koliko, 30 godina? 20 godina?
34:06
People walking into this rocket.
658
2034880
2576
Da će ljudi ušetati u ovu raketu.
34:09
EM: I'm hopeful it's sort of
an eight- to 10-year time frame.
an eight- to 10-year time frame.
659
2037480
4576
IM: Nadam se da će da bude
otprilike za osam do 10 godina.
otprilike za osam do 10 godina.
34:14
Aspirationally, that's our target.
660
2042080
2376
Težimo tome, to nam je cilj.
34:16
Our internal targets
are more aggressive, but I think --
are more aggressive, but I think --
661
2044480
3016
Naši interni ciljevi
su nešto agresivniji, ali mislim -
su nešto agresivniji, ali mislim -
34:19
(Laughter)
662
2047520
2159
(Smeh)
34:23
CA: OK.
663
2051600
1215
KA: U redu.
34:24
EM: While vehicle seems quite large
664
2052840
2136
IM: Iako se vozilo čini prilično velikim
34:27
and is large by comparison
with other rockets,
with other rockets,
665
2055000
2176
i veliko je u poređenju s drugim raketama,
34:29
I think the future spacecraft
666
2057199
3977
mislim da će naspram
budućih kosmičkih brodova
budućih kosmičkih brodova
34:33
will make this look like a rowboat.
667
2061199
3841
ovo izgledati kao čamac.
34:38
The future spaceships
will be truly enormous.
will be truly enormous.
668
2066320
4696
Budući svemirski brodovi
će da budu istinski ogromni.
će da budu istinski ogromni.
34:43
CA: Why, Elon?
669
2071040
2176
KA: Zašto, Ilone?
34:45
Why do we need to build a city on Mars
670
2073239
4137
Zašto moramo da sagradimo grad na Marsu
34:49
with a million people
on it in your lifetime,
on it in your lifetime,
671
2077400
3056
sa milion ljudi u njemu,
u tvom životnom veku,
u tvom životnom veku,
34:52
which I think is kind of
what you've said you'd love to do?
what you've said you'd love to do?
672
2080480
3000
što je nekako nešto
što si rekao da bi voleo da uradiš?
što si rekao da bi voleo da uradiš?
34:56
EM: I think it's important to have
673
2084480
2759
IM: Mislim da je važno imati
35:01
a future that is inspiring and appealing.
674
2089120
2736
budućnost koja
je inspirativna i privlačna.
je inspirativna i privlačna.
35:03
I just think there have to be reasons
675
2091880
2776
Prosto smatram
da moraju da postoje razlozi
da moraju da postoje razlozi
35:06
that you get up in the morning
and you want to live.
and you want to live.
676
2094679
2937
zbog kojih se ujutru budite
i želite da živite.
i želite da živite.
35:09
Like, why do you want to live?
677
2097640
1456
Kao, zašto želite da živite?
35:11
What's the point? What inspires you?
678
2099120
1736
Šta je svrha? Šta vas inspiriše?
35:12
What do you love about the future?
679
2100880
1856
Šta vam se sviđa kod budućnosti?
35:14
And if we're not out there,
680
2102760
1496
A ako nismo tamo negde,
35:16
if the future does not include
being out there among the stars
being out there among the stars
681
2104280
4016
ako budućnost ne uključuje
nas tamo negde među zvezdama
nas tamo negde među zvezdama
35:20
and being a multiplanet species,
682
2108320
1696
i da smo višeplanetarna vrsta,
35:22
I find that it's incredibly depressing
683
2110040
2496
nekako mi je to neverovatno deprimirajuće,
35:24
if that's not the future
that we're going to have.
that we're going to have.
684
2112560
3336
ako to nije budućnost koju ćemo da imamo.
35:27
(Applause)
685
2115920
4176
(Aplauz)
35:32
CA: People want to position this
as an either or,
as an either or,
686
2120120
2336
KA: Ljudi žele da svrstaju
ovo među ili-ili,
ovo među ili-ili,
35:34
that there are so many desperate things
happening on the planet now
happening on the planet now
687
2122480
3696
da postoji toliko očajnih stvari
koje se trenutno dešavaju na planeti,
koje se trenutno dešavaju na planeti,
35:38
from climate to poverty
to, you know, you pick your issue.
to, you know, you pick your issue.
688
2126200
3440
od klime do siromaštva
do, znaš, izaberi problem.
do, znaš, izaberi problem.
35:42
And this feels like a distraction.
689
2130480
2536
A ovo izgleda kao odvlačenje pažnje.
35:45
You shouldn't be thinking about this.
690
2133040
1816
Ne bi trebalo da razmišljaš o ovome.
35:46
You should be solving what's here and now.
691
2134880
2176
Trebalo bi da se baviš
onim što je ovde i sad.
onim što je ovde i sad.
35:49
And to be fair, you've done
a fair old bit to actually do that
a fair old bit to actually do that
692
2137080
2936
I, pošteno je reći, da si imao svoj
popriličan udeo u tome,
popriličan udeo u tome,
35:52
with your work on sustainable energy.
693
2140040
2816
svojim radom na održivoj energiji.
35:54
But why not just do that?
694
2142880
2040
Ali zašto se ne baviti samo time?
35:59
EM: I think there's --
695
2147360
2080
IM: Mislim da postoji -
36:04
I look at the future
from the standpoint of probabilities.
from the standpoint of probabilities.
696
2152840
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Posmatram budućnost
s tačke gledišta verovatnoće.
s tačke gledišta verovatnoće.
36:09
It's like a branching
stream of probabilities,
stream of probabilities,
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Poput razgranate bujice verovatnoće,
36:13
and there are actions that we can take
that affect those probabilities
that affect those probabilities
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i postoje postupci koje možemo da uradimo
koji utiču na tu verovatnoću
koji utiču na tu verovatnoću
36:19
or that accelerate one thing
or slow down another thing.
or slow down another thing.
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ili koji ubrzavaju jednu stvar
ili usporavaju drugu stvar.
ili usporavaju drugu stvar.
36:24
I may introduce something new
to the probability stream.
to the probability stream.
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Možda uvedem nešto novo
u bujicu verovatnoće.
u bujicu verovatnoće.
Održiva energija će se desiti
bez obzira na sve.
bez obzira na sve.
36:30
Sustainable energy
will happen no matter what.
will happen no matter what.
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36:33
If there was no Tesla,
if Tesla never existed,
if Tesla never existed,
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Da nije bilo Tesle,
da Tesla nikad nije postojala,
da Tesla nikad nije postojala,
36:35
it would have to happen out of necessity.
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desilo bi se iz nužde.
36:38
It's tautological.
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To je tautološki.
36:40
If you don't have sustainable energy,
it means you have unsustainable energy.
it means you have unsustainable energy.
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Ako nemate održivu energiju,
to znači da imate neodrživu energiju.
to znači da imate neodrživu energiju.
36:43
Eventually you will run out,
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Vremenom ćete je potrošiti,
36:45
and the laws of economics
will drive civilization
will drive civilization
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te će ekonomski zakoni voditi civilizaciju
36:51
towards sustainable energy,
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ka održivoj energiji,
36:52
inevitably.
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neizbežno.
36:54
The fundamental value
of a company like Tesla
of a company like Tesla
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Temeljna vrednost firme, poput Tesle,
36:57
is the degree to which it accelerates
the advent of sustainable energy,
the advent of sustainable energy,
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je stepen do kog ubrzava
dolazak održive energije,
dolazak održive energije,
37:01
faster than it would otherwise occur.
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brže nego što bi inače do nje došlo.
37:05
So when I think, like,
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Pa kad razmišljam, kao,
37:06
what is the fundamental good
of a company like Tesla,
of a company like Tesla,
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šta je temeljna dobrobit
firme, poput Tesle,
firme, poput Tesle,
37:09
I would say, hopefully,
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rekao bih, nadam se,
37:10
if it accelerated that by a decade,
potentially more than a decade,
potentially more than a decade,
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da ako je ubrzala sve to za deceniju,
potencijalno više od decenije,
potencijalno više od decenije,
to bi bila prilično dobra stvar
koja se desila.
koja se desila.
37:16
that would be quite a good thing to occur.
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37:18
That's what I consider to be
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To ja smatram
37:20
the fundamental
aspirational good of Tesla.
aspirational good of Tesla.
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temeljnom dobrobiti kojoj teži Tesla.
37:25
Then there's becoming a multiplanet
species and space-faring civilization.
species and space-faring civilization.
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Potom, naše pretvaranje u višeplanetarnu
vrstu i civilizaciju svemirskih putnika.
vrstu i civilizaciju svemirskih putnika.
37:31
This is not inevitable.
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To nije neizbežno.
37:33
It's very important to appreciate
this is not inevitable.
this is not inevitable.
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Veoma je važno da cenimo
da to nije neizbežno.
da to nije neizbežno.
37:36
The sustainable energy future
I think is largely inevitable,
I think is largely inevitable,
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Budućnost održive energije,
mislim da je većim delom neizbežna,
mislim da je većim delom neizbežna,
37:39
but being a space-faring civilization
is definitely not inevitable.
is definitely not inevitable.
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ali biti civilizacija svemirskih putnika
definitivno nije neizbežno.
definitivno nije neizbežno.
37:44
If you look at the progress in space,
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Ako posmatrate napredak u svemiru,
37:48
in 1969 you were able
to send somebody to the moon.
to send somebody to the moon.
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1969. ste bili u stanju
da nekoga pošaljete na mesec.
da nekoga pošaljete na mesec.
37:52
1969.
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1969.
37:54
Then we had the Space Shuttle.
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Potom smo imali spejs-šatl.
37:57
The Space Shuttle could only
take people to low Earth orbit.
take people to low Earth orbit.
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Spejs-šatl je jedino mogao
da odvede ljude do niže Zemljine orbite.
da odvede ljude do niže Zemljine orbite.
38:01
Then the Space Shuttle retired,
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Potom se spejs-šatl penzionisao,
38:02
and the United States
could take no one to orbit.
could take no one to orbit.
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i Sjedinjene Države
nikog nisu mogle povesti u orbitu.
nikog nisu mogle povesti u orbitu.
38:06
So that's the trend.
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Dakle, to je trend.
38:07
The trend is like down to nothing.
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Trend se spušta do nule.
38:11
People are mistaken when they think
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Ljudi greše kad misle
da se tehnologija
prosto automatski unapređuje.
prosto automatski unapređuje.
38:13
that technology
just automatically improves.
just automatically improves.
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38:16
It does not automatically improve.
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Ne unapređuje se automatski.
38:18
It only improves if a lot of people
work very hard to make it better,
work very hard to make it better,
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Jedino se unapređuje kada mnogo ljudi
veoma vredno radi na njenom unapređenju
veoma vredno radi na njenom unapređenju
38:22
and actually it will, I think,
by itself degrade, actually.
by itself degrade, actually.
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i zapravo mislim da će prepuštena
samoj sebi da se unazadi.
samoj sebi da se unazadi.
Pogledajte velike civilizacije,
poput drevnog Egipta,
poput drevnog Egipta,
38:28
You look at great civilizations
like Ancient Egypt,
like Ancient Egypt,
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38:30
and they were able to make the pyramids,
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1936
oni su bii u stanju da naprave piramide,
38:32
and they forgot how to do that.
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i zaboravili su kako se to radi.
38:34
And then the Romans,
they built these incredible aqueducts.
they built these incredible aqueducts.
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Potom Rimljani, gradili su te
neverovatne akvadukte.
neverovatne akvadukte.
38:37
They forgot how to do it.
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Zaboravili su kako se to radi.
38:40
CA: Elon, it almost seems,
listening to you
listening to you
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KA: Ilone, gotovo da se čini,
dok te slušam
dok te slušam
38:42
and looking at the different
things you've done,
things you've done,
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2310800
2256
i posmatram različite stvari
koje si uradio,
koje si uradio,
38:45
that you've got this unique
double motivation on everything
double motivation on everything
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da imaš tu jedinstvenu
dvostruku motivaciju za sve,
dvostruku motivaciju za sve,
38:47
that I find so interesting.
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koja je meni zanimljiva.
38:51
One is this desire to work
for humanity's long-term good.
for humanity's long-term good.
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Prva je žudnja da delaš u ime
dugoročne dobrobiti čovečanstva.
dugoročne dobrobiti čovečanstva.
38:56
The other is the desire
to do something exciting.
to do something exciting.
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Druga je žudnja
da uradiš nešto uzbudljivo.
da uradiš nešto uzbudljivo.
38:58
And often it feels like you feel
like you need the one to drive the other.
like you need the one to drive the other.
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I često se čini kao da osećaš
da ti je potrebna jedna da pokreće drugu.
da ti je potrebna jedna da pokreće drugu.
39:03
With Tesla, you want
to have sustainable energy,
to have sustainable energy,
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S Teslom želiš da imaš održivu energiju,
39:06
so you made these super sexy,
exciting cars to do it.
exciting cars to do it.
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pa si napravio ova izuzetno privlačna,
uzbudljiva auta za to.
uzbudljiva auta za to.
Solarna energija, moramo to da ostvarimo,
39:11
Solar energy, we need to get there,
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39:12
so we need to make these beautiful roofs.
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te moramo da pravimo te lepe krovove.
39:14
We haven't even spoken
about your newest thing,
about your newest thing,
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Nismo čak ni pomenuli
tvoj najnoviji projekat,
tvoj najnoviji projekat,
39:17
which we don't have time to do,
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za koji nemamo sad vremena,
39:18
but you want to save humanity from bad AI,
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ali želiš da spasiš čovečanstvo od zle VI,
39:20
and so you're going to create
this really cool brain-machine interface
this really cool brain-machine interface
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te ćeš da napraviš taj istinski sjajan
interfejs za mozak i mašinu
interfejs za mozak i mašinu
39:24
to give us all infinite memory
and telepathy and so forth.
and telepathy and so forth.
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da nam svima obezbediš
neograničeno pamćenje i telepatiju itd.
neograničeno pamćenje i telepatiju itd.
39:28
And on Mars, it feels
like what you're saying is,
like what you're saying is,
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A na Marsu, utisak je da kao da govoriš:
39:30
yeah, we need to save humanity
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da, moramo da spasimo čovečanstvo
39:34
and have a backup plan,
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i da imamo rezervni plan,
39:35
but also we need to inspire humanity,
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ali takođe moramo
da inspirišemo čovečanstvo,
da inspirišemo čovečanstvo,
39:39
and this is a way to inspire.
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a ovo je način za to.
39:45
EM: I think the value
of beauty and inspiration
of beauty and inspiration
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IM: Mislim da je vrednost
lepote i inspiracije
lepote i inspiracije
39:49
is very much underrated,
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poprilično potcenjena,
39:51
no question.
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bez sumnje.
39:53
But I want to be clear.
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Ali želim da budem jasan.
39:54
I'm not trying to be anyone's savior.
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Ne pokušavam da budem ičiji spasilac.
39:56
That is not the --
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To nije -
39:58
I'm just trying to think about the future
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prosto pokušavam
da razmišljam o budućnosti
da razmišljam o budućnosti
40:02
and not be sad.
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i da ne budem tužan.
40:04
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
40:06
CA: Beautiful statement.
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KA: Prelepa izjava.
40:10
I think everyone here would agree
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Mislim da će se svi ovde složiti
40:11
that it is not --
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da nije -
Da se bilo šta od ovoga
neće neizbežno desiti.
neće neizbežno desiti.
40:13
None of this is going
to happen inevitably.
to happen inevitably.
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40:15
The fact that in your mind,
you dream this stuff,
you dream this stuff,
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Činjenica da u tovm umu sanjaš sve ovo,
40:19
you dream stuff that no one else
would dare dream,
would dare dream,
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sanjaš stvari koje se niko drugi
ne bi usudio da sanja
ne bi usudio da sanja
40:22
or no one else
would be capable of dreaming
would be capable of dreaming
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ili ne bi bio u stanju da sanja
40:24
at the level of complexity that you do.
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na nivou složenosti na kom ti to radiš.
40:28
The fact that you do that, Elon Musk,
is a really remarkable thing.
is a really remarkable thing.
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Činjenica da to radiš, Ilon Mask,
je zaista izvanredna stvar.
je zaista izvanredna stvar.
40:31
Thank you for helping us all
to dream a bit bigger.
to dream a bit bigger.
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Hvala ti što nam pomažeš
da sanjamo bar malo više.
da sanjamo bar malo više.
IM: Ali reći ćete mi ako se ikad pretvori
u nešto krajnje sumanuto, je li tako?
u nešto krajnje sumanuto, je li tako?
40:34
EM: But you'll tell me if it ever
starts getting genuinely insane, right?
starts getting genuinely insane, right?
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40:37
(Laughter)
785
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(Smeh)
40:40
CA: Thank you, Elon Musk.
That was really, really fantastic.
That was really, really fantastic.
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KA: Hvala ti, Ilon Mask.
Bilo je zaista, zaista fantastično.
Bilo je zaista, zaista fantastično.
40:43
That was really fantastic.
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Bilo je zaista fantastično.
40:45
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Elon Musk - Serial entrepreneurElon Musk is the CEO and product architect of Tesla Motors and the CEO/CTO of Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX).
Why you should listen
At SpaceX, Musk oversees the development of rockets and spacecraft for missions to Earth orbit and ultimately to other planets. In 2008, SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket and Dragon spacecraft won the NASA contract to provide cargo transport to space. In 2012, SpaceX became the first commercial company to dock with the International Space Station and return cargo to Earth with the Dragon.
At Tesla, Musk has overseen product development and design from the beginning, including the all-electric Tesla Roadster, Model S and Model X, and the rollout of Supercharger stations to keep the cars juiced up. (Some of the charging stations use solar energy systems from SolarCity, of which Musk is the non-executive chair.) Transitioning to a sustainable energy economy, in which electric vehicles play a pivotal role, has been one of his central interests for almost two decades. He co-founded PayPal and served as the company's chair and CEO.
Elon Musk | Speaker | TED.com