TED2007
Steven Pinker: The surprising decline in violence
Steven Pinker: vägivalla müüt
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Steven Pinker näitab graafikutel, kuidas vägivald on iidsetest aegadest kuni tänaseni langenud. Kuigi Iraagile ja Darfurile mõeldes võib see tunduda ebaloogilisena, väidab ta, et me elame praegu kõige rahulikumal perioodil meie liigi ajaloos.
Steven Pinker - Psychologist
Steven Pinker is a professor of cognitive science (the study of the human mind) who writes about language, mind and human nature. Full bio
Steven Pinker is a professor of cognitive science (the study of the human mind) who writes about language, mind and human nature. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:25
Images like this, from the Auschwitz concentration camp,
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Seda sorti pildid, Auschwitzi koonduslaagrist,
00:29
have been seared into our consciousness during the twentieth century
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on 20. sajandi jooksul meie teadvusesse söövitatud
00:34
and have given us a new understanding of who we are,
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ja need on andnud meile uue arusaama, kes me oleme,
00:39
where we've come from and the times we live in.
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kust me tuleme ja millisel ajastul me elame.
00:42
During the twentieth century, we witnessed the atrocities
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20. sajandil nägime me jõledusi, nagu
00:46
of Stalin, Hitler, Mao, Pol Pot, Rwanda and other genocides,
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Stalin, Hitler, Mao, Pol Pot, Rwanda ja muud genotsiidid,
00:51
and even though the twenty-first century is only seven years old,
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ja kuigi 21. sajand on ainult seitse aastat vana,
00:55
we have already witnessed an ongoing genocide in Darfur
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oleme me juba tunnistajateks Darfuri genotsiidile
00:59
and the daily horrors of Iraq.
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ja igapäevastele õudustele Iraagis.
01:02
This has led to a common understanding of our situation,
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See on tekitanud meie olukorra kohta levinud arusaama,
01:05
namely that modernity has brought us terrible violence, and perhaps
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nimelt: et modernsus tõi kaasa koleda vägivalla, ja võibolla,
01:09
that native peoples lived in a state of harmony that we have departed from, to our peril.
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et põlisrahvad elasid mingis harmoonilises koosluses, millest me enda kahjuks eemaldunud oleme.
01:12
Here is an example
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Siin on näide
01:17
from an op-ed on Thanksgiving, in the Boston Globe
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ühest kolumnist, mis ilmus paari aasta eest Tänupühade aja
01:20
a couple of years ago, where the writer wrote, "The Indian life
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Boston Globe'is, kus autor kirjutas: "Indiaanlaste elu
01:24
was a difficult one, but there were no employment problems,
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oli raske, aga neil ei olnud probleeme nagu töötus,
01:27
community harmony was strong, substance abuse unknown,
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ühiskond oli harmooniline, sõltuvusprobleeme ei tuntud,
01:30
crime nearly non-existent, what warfare there was between tribes
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kuritegevust peaaegu polnud, väike sõdimine hõimude vahel
01:34
was largely ritualistic and seldom resulted in indiscriminate
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oli peamiselt rituaalne ja lõppes harva valimatu
01:37
or wholesale slaughter." Now, you're all familiar with this treacle.
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või täieliku tapmisega." Te kõik olete seda imalat juttu kuulnud.
01:42
We teach it to our children. We hear it on television
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Me õpetame seda oma lastele; me kuuleme seda televiisorist
01:45
and in storybooks. Now, the original title of this session
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ja juturaamatutest. Selle osa algne pealkiri oli
01:50
was, "Everything You Know Is Wrong," and I'm going to present evidence
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"Kõik, mida sa tead, on vale", ja ma esitan teile tõendeid,
01:53
that this particular part of our common understanding is wrong,
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et see konkreetne osa meie ühistest arusaamadest on väär:
01:56
that, in fact, our ancestors were far more violent than we are,
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et tegelikult olid meie eellased palju vägivaldsemad kui meie,
02:00
that violence has been in decline for long stretches of time,
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et vägivald on pikkade perioodide vältel langenud,
02:04
and that today we are probably living in the most peaceful time in our species' existence.
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ja et täna elame me tõenäoliselt kõige rahulikumal ajajärgul meie liigi eksistentsi jooksul.
02:07
Now, in the decade of Darfur and Iraq,
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Darfuri ja Iraagi aastakümnel
02:12
a statement like that might seem somewhere between hallucinatory
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võib selline väide tunduda midagi hallutsinatsiooni ja rõveduse
02:15
and obscene. But I'm going to try to convince you
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vahepealset. Aga ma proovin teid veenda,
02:18
that that is the correct picture. The decline of violence
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et see on õige pilt. Vägivalla langus
02:24
is a fractal phenomenon. You can see it over millennia,
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on fraktaalne fenomen. Seda on näha aastatuhandete,
02:27
over centuries, over decades and over years,
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sajandite, kümnendite ja aastate vältel,
02:31
although there seems to have been a tipping point at the onset
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kuigi paistab, et murdepunkt oli Valgustusajastu alguses
02:33
of the Age of Reason in the sixteenth century. One sees it
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16. sajandil. Seda on näha
02:37
all over the world, although not homogeneously.
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üle kogu maailma, kuigi mitte ühtlaselt.
02:41
It's especially evident in the West, beginning with England
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See on eriti ilmne Läänes, saades alguse Inglismaal
02:44
and Holland around the time of the Enlightenment.
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ja Hollandis Valgustusajastu paiku.
02:47
Let me take you on a journey of several powers of 10 --
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Las ma viin teid retkele mööda kümne astmeid --
02:51
from the millennium scale to the year scale --
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millenniumi skaalalt aasta skaalale --
02:53
to try to persuade you of this. Until 10,000 years ago, all humans
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et teid selles veenda. Kuni 10 000 aastat tagasi elasid kõik inimesed
02:57
lived as hunter-gatherers, without permanent settlements
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küttide ja korilastena, ilma püsiasulate
03:00
or government. And this is the state that's commonly thought
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või valitsuseta. Ja see ongi olukord, mida tihti peetakse
03:03
to be one of primordial harmony. But the archaeologist
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ürgselt harmooniliseks ühiskonnaks. Aga arheoloog
03:09
Lawrence Keeley, looking at casualty rates
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Lawrence Keeley, uurides hukkumiste sagedust
03:13
among contemporary hunter-gatherers, which is our best source
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tänapäevaste küttide ja korilaste hulgas -- mis on meie parim tõendusmaterjalide
03:17
of evidence about this way of life, has shown a rather different conclusion.
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allikas selle eluviisi kohta -- on näidanud hoopis teist järeldust.
03:23
Here is a graph that he put together
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Siin on üks graafik, mille ta koostas,
03:25
showing the percentage of male deaths due to warfare
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mis näitab, mitu protsenti meeste surmadest erinevates
03:28
in a number of foraging, or hunting and gathering societies.
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küttide ja korilaste ühiskondades on sõdade põhjustatud.
03:33
The red bars correspond to the likelihood that a man will die
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Punased postid näitavad tõenäosust, et mees sureb
03:39
at the hands of another man, as opposed to passing away
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teise mehe käe läbi, mitte loomulikel põhjustel,
03:42
of natural causes, in a variety of foraging societies
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erinevates korilusühiskondades
03:46
in the New Guinea Highlands and the Amazon Rainforest.
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Uus-Guinea kõrgmaal ja Amazonase vihmametsades.
03:50
And they range from a rate of almost a 60 percent chance that a man will die
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Ja need varieeruvad ligi 60% tõenäosusest, et mees sureb
03:53
at the hands of another man to, in the case of the Gebusi,
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teise mehe käe läbi, kuni Gebusi rahva puhul
03:57
only a 15 percent chance. The tiny, little blue bar in the lower
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ainult 15% tõenäosuseni. See tilluke sinine post all
04:01
left-hand corner plots the corresponding statistic from United States
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vasakus nurgas näitab vastavat statistikat USAs ja
04:05
and Europe in the twentieth century, and includes all the deaths
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Euroopas 20 sajandil, ja sisaldab kõiki surmi
04:09
of both World Wars. If the death rate in tribal warfare had prevailed
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mõlemas maailmasõjas. Kui hõimusõdade surmade määr oleks jäänud
04:14
during the 20th century, there would have been two billion deaths rather than 100 million.
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20. sajandil samaks, siis oleks 100 miljoni asemel surnud kaks miljardit.
04:20
Also at the millennium scale, we can look
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Samuti millenniumi skaalal, võime vaadata
04:23
at the way of life of early civilizations such as the ones described
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eluviisi varajastes tsivilisatsioonides, nagu need, mida piiblis
04:28
in the Bible. And in this supposed source of our moral values,
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kirjeldatakse. Ja seal, mis peaks olema meie moraalsete väärtuste allikas,
04:33
one can read descriptions of what was expected in warfare,
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võib lugeda kirjeldusi, mida sõdades oodati,
04:37
such as the following from Numbers 31: "And they warred
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nagu järgnevas lõigus Moosese Neljandas Raamatus: "Ja nad sõdisid
04:40
against the Midianites as the Lord commanded Moses,
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Midjanlaste vastu, nagu Issand Moosest käskis,
04:43
and they slew all the males. And Moses said unto them,
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ja nad lõid maha kõik mehed. Ja mooses ütles neile,
04:46
'Have you saved all the women alive? Now, therefore, kill every male
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"Kas olete kõik naised jätnud elama? Seepärast tapke nüüd kõik
04:50
among the little ones and kill every woman that hath known man
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poeglapsed, samuti tapke iga naine, kes on meest tunda saanud
04:53
by lying with him, but all the women children that have not know a man
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mehega magades, aga kõik tütarlapsed, kes ei ole õppinud tundma
04:57
by lying with him keep alive for yourselves.'" In other words,
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mehega magamist, jätke endile elama." Teisisõnu,
05:00
kill the men; kill the children; if you see any virgins,
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tapke mehed, tapke lapsed, kui mõnda neitsit näete,
05:05
then you can keep them alive so that you can rape them.
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võite ta vägistamiseks ellu jätta.
05:08
You can find four or five passages in the Bible of this ilk.
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Sellised lõike võib piiblist leida neli või viis.
05:12
Also in the Bible, one sees that the death penalty
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Samuti näeb piiblist, et surmanuhtlus oli
05:15
was the accepted punishment for crimes such as homosexuality,
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aksepteeritav karistus kuritegude eest nagu homoseksuaalsus,
05:20
adultery, blasphemy, idolatry, talking back to your parents --
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abielurikkumine, jumalateotus, ebajumala kummardamine, vanematele vastu rääkimine --
05:24
(Laughter) -- and picking up sticks on the Sabbath.
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(Naer) -- ja sabbati ajal okste korjamine.
05:28
Well, let's click the zoom lens
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Nüüd, fokusseerime läätse
05:31
down one order of magnitude, and look at the century scale.
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ühe suurusjärgu allapoole ja vaatame sajandi skaalat.
05:34
Although we don't have statistics for warfare throughout
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Kuigi meil ei ole sõdade statistikat
05:39
the Middle Ages to modern times,
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keskajast tänapäevani,
05:40
we know just from conventional history -- the evidence
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on tavalisest ajalookirjeldusest teada -- tõendid
05:43
was under our nose all along that there has been a reduction
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on kogu aeg meie nina all olnud, et ühiskondlikult heakskiidetud
05:47
in socially sanctioned forms of violence.
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vägivalla vormid on vähenenud.
05:50
For example, any social history will reveal that mutilation and torture
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Näiteks, iga ajalooline kirjeldus näitab, et halvamine ja piinamine
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were routine forms of criminal punishment. The kind of infraction
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olid kurjategijatele tavalised karistused. Selline rikkumine,
05:57
today that would give you a fine, in those days would result in
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mille eest täna trahvi saab, võis neil päevil lõppeda
06:01
your tongue being cut out, your ears being cut off, you being blinded,
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keele või kõrvade ära lõikamisega, pimedaks torkamisega,
06:05
a hand being chopped off and so on.
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käe maha raiumisega ja nii edasi.
06:07
There were numerous ingenious forms of sadistic capital punishment:
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Oli arvukalt leidlikke sadistlikke viise surmanuhtluseks:
06:12
burning at the stake, disemboweling, breaking on the wheel,
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tuleriidal põletamine, soolikate väljalaskmine, rattale tõmbamine,
06:15
being pulled apart by horses and so on.
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hobustega neljaks kiskumine ja nii edasi.
06:18
The death penalty was a sanction for a long list of non-violent crimes:
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Surmanuhtlus oli meetmeks paljude mittevägivaldsete kuridegude eest:
06:22
criticizing the king, stealing a loaf of bread. Slavery, of course,
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kuninga kritiseerimine, leivapätsi varastamine. Orjapidamine, muidugi,
06:27
was the preferred labor-saving device, and cruelty was
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oli eelistatud tööjõudu säästev leiutis, ja julmus oli
06:31
a popular form of entertainment. Perhaps the most vivid example
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populaarne meelelahutus. Kõige ilmekam näide on võibolla
06:34
was the practice of cat burning, in which a cat was hoisted
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kasside põletamise komme, kus kass tõmmati laval köitega tule kohale üles
06:37
on a stage and lowered in a sling into a fire,
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ja lasti siis allapoole leekidesse,
06:40
and the spectators shrieked in laughter as the cat, howling in pain,
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ja pealtvaatajad kriiskasid naerda, kui kass, valust ulgudes,
06:46
was burned to death.
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surnuks põletati.
06:48
What about one-on-one murder? Well, there, there are good statistics,
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Kuidas oli üks-ühele mõrvadega? Selle kohta leidub korralikku statistikat,
06:51
because many municipalities recorded the cause of death.
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sest paljud omavalitsused kirjutasid surma põhjused registritesse.
06:57
The criminologist Manuel Eisner
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Kriminoloog Manuel Eisner
07:02
scoured all of the historical records across Europe
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korjas kokku kõik ajaloolised andmed mõrvade kohta
07:04
for homicide rates in any village, hamlet, town, county
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igast külast, alevikust, linnast, maakonnast üle Euroopa,
07:09
that he could find, and he supplemented them
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mida ta leidis, ja lisas neile
07:11
with national data, when nations started keeping statistics.
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riiklikud andmed alates ajast, kui riigid statistikat koguma hakkasid.
07:15
He plotted on a logarithmic scale, going from 100 deaths
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Ta koostas logaritmilisel skaalal graafiku, alates 100 surmast
07:22
per 100,000 people per year, which was approximately the rate
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100 000 inimese kohta aastas, mis oli umbkaudne
07:28
of homicide in the Middle Ages. And the figure plummets down
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mõrvade määr keskajal. Ja see näitaja kukub
07:33
to less than one homicide per 100,000 people per year
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vähem kui ühe mõrvani 100 000 inimese kohta aastas
07:38
in seven or eight European countries. Then, there is a slight uptick
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seitsmes või kaheksas Euroopa riigis. Seejärel toimub väike tõus
07:42
in the 1960s. The people who said that rock 'n' roll would lead
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1960ndatel. Inimestel, kes ütlesid, et Rock 'n Roll viib
07:46
to the decline of moral values actually had a grain of truth to that.
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viib moraalsete väärtuste allakäiguni, oli tegelikult natuke õigus.
07:50
But there was a decline from at least two orders of magnitude
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Aga mõrvade määr on keskajast tänaseni vähemalt
07:54
in homicide from the Middle Ages to the present,
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kahe suurusjärgu võrra langenud,
07:57
and the elbow occurred in the early sixteenth century.
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ja pööre toimus 16. sajandi alguses.
08:02
Let's click down now to the decade scale.
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Vaatame kümnendi skaalat.
08:04
According to non-governmental organizations
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Valitsusväliste organisatsioonide sõnul,
08:07
that keep such statistics, since 1945, in Europe and the Americas,
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kes selliseid andmeid koguvad, on alates 1945. aastast
08:11
there has been a steep decline in interstate wars,
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Euroopas ja Ameerikas riikidevahelised sõjad,
08:15
in deadly ethnic riots or pogroms, and in military coups,
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rahvuslikud mässud või pogrommid ja sõjaväelised riigipöörded järsult vähenenud,
08:19
even in South America. Worldwide, there's been a steep decline
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seda isegi Lõuna-Ameerikas. Üle maailma on suremus
08:23
in deaths in interstate wars. The yellow bars here show the number
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riikidevahelistes sõdades järsult langenud. Kollased postid näitavad
08:29
of deaths per war per year from 1950 to the present.
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surmade arvu sõja kohta aastas, 1950. aastast tänaseni.
08:34
And, as you can see, the death rate goes down from 65,000 deaths
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Nagu te näete, surmade määr langeb 65 000 surmalt
08:38
per conflict per year in the 1950s to less than 2,000 deaths
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konflikti kohta aastas 1950ndatel, vähem kui 2000 surmani
08:42
per conflict per year in this decade, as horrific as it is.
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konflikti kohta aastas sellel kümnendil, nii kole kui see ka pole.
08:46
Even in the year scale, one can see a decline of violence.
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Isegi aasta skaalal on vägivalla langus näha.
08:50
Since the end of the Cold War, there have been fewer civil wars,
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Alates Külma Sõja lõpust on toimunud vähem kodusõdu,
08:53
fewer genocides -- indeed, a 90 percent reduction since post-World War II highs --
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vähem genotsiide -- tõepoolest, neid on 90% vähem kui vahetult pärast Teist Maailmasõda --
08:59
and even a reversal of the 1960s uptick in homicide and violent crime.
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ja isegi kuritegude tõus 1960ndatel on ümber pöördunud.
09:05
This is from the FBI Uniform Crime Statistics. You can see
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See on FBI Kuritegude statistika: te näete,
09:09
that there is a fairly low rate of violence in the '50s and the '60s,
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et 50ndatel ja 60ndatel oli vägivalla tase madal,
09:13
then it soared upward for several decades, and began
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siis see tõusis paari aastakümne vältel ja hakkas
09:17
a precipitous decline, starting in the 1990s, so that it went back
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alates 1990ndatest järsult langema, jõudes tagasi
09:21
to the level that was last enjoyed in 1960.
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samale tasemele, mida viimati nauditi 1960ndatel.
09:25
President Clinton, if you're here, thank you.
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President Clinton, kui sa oled siin, aitäh.
09:27
(Laughter)
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(Naer)
09:29
So the question is, why are so many people so wrong
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Nii et küsimus kõlab: miks nii paljud inimesed nii tähtsal
09:32
about something so important? I think there are a number of reasons.
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teemal nii rängalt eksivad? Ma arvan, et põhjuseid on mitu.
09:36
One of them is we have better reporting. The Associated Press
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Üks neist on paren raporteerimine: "Associated Press
09:39
is a better chronicler of wars over the surface of the Earth
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on maailmas toimuvate sõdade parem kroonik
09:43
than sixteenth-century monks were.
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kui 16. sajandi mungad."
09:47
There's a cognitive illusion. We cognitive psychologists know that the easier it is
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See on kognitiivne illusioon: me teame, et mida lihtsam on
09:52
to recall specific instances of something,
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meenutada millegi konkreetseid juhtumeid,
09:55
the higher the probability that you assign to it.
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seda kõrgemaks sa selle tõenäosust pead.
09:58
Things that we read about in the paper with gory footage
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Mida me ajalehest loeme, verised pildid kõrval,
10:02
burn into memory more than reports of a lot more people dying
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sööbib mällu sügavamalt kui uudised rohkemate inimeste surmast
10:06
in their beds of old age. There are dynamics in the opinion
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oma voodites vanas eas. Arvamuste ja propageerimiste
10:12
and advocacy markets: no one ever attracted observers, advocates
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turgudel on oma dünaamika: vaatlejaid ja annetajaid ei
10:17
and donors by saying
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tõmba ligi, öeldes:
10:19
things just seem to be getting better and better.
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"Paistab et kõik läheb aina paremini."
10:21
(Laughter)
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(Naer)
10:22
There's guilt about our treatment of native peoples
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Kaasaegsete intellektuaalide hulgas on süütunne,
10:25
in modern intellectual life, and an unwillingness to acknowledge
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kuidas me põliselanikke kohtlesime, ja tõrksus tunnistada,
10:28
there could be anything good about Western culture.
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nagu oleks Lääne kultuuris ka midagi head.
10:31
And of course, our change in standards can outpace the change
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Ja muidugi, meie standardid võivad muutuda kiiremini
10:36
in behavior. One of the reasons violence went down
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kui käitumine. Üks põhjus, miks vägivald langes,
10:39
is that people got sick of the carnage and cruelty in their time.
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on see, et inimesed tüdisid tapmisest ja julmusest.
10:42
That's a process that seems to be continuing,
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See on protsess, mis paistab jätkuvat,
10:45
but if it outstrips behavior by the standards of the day,
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aga kui hinnata käitumist tänaste standardite järgi,
10:49
things always look more barbaric than they would have been
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tunduvad asjad alati barbaarsemad, kui nad oleksid olnud
10:52
by historic standards. So today, we get exercised -- and rightly so --
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ajalooliste standardite järgi. Niiet täna tõuseme me õigustatult tagajalgadele
10:56
if a handful of murderers get executed by lethal injection
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kui käputäis mõrvareid surmasüsti läbi hukatakse,
11:02
in Texas after a 15-year appeal process. We don't consider
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näiteks Texases pärast 15-aastast vaagimist. Me ei arvesta,
11:07
that a couple of hundred years ago, they may have been burned
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et paarsada aastat tagasi oleks nad võidud tuleriidal
11:10
at the stake for criticizing the king after a trial
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põletada kuninga kritiseerimise eest, pärast
11:13
that lasted 10 minutes, and indeed, that that would have been repeated
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10-minutilist kohtuprotsessi -- ja see oleks pidevalt
11:16
over and over again. Today, we look at capital punishment
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kordunud. Täna on surmanuhtlus meie jaoks
11:21
as evidence of how low our behavior can sink,
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tõend, kui madalale me võime laskuda,
11:24
rather than how high our standards have risen.
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mitte kui kõrgele meie standardid on tõusnud.
11:28
Well, why has violence declined? No one really knows,
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Miks on vägivald langenud? Keegi ei tea,
11:31
but I have read four explanations, all of which, I think,
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aga ma olen lugenud nelja seletust, mis minu arvates on
11:36
have some grain of plausibility. The first is, maybe
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kõik üksjagu usutavad. Esimene on: võibolla
11:39
Thomas Hobbes got it right. He was the one who said
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oli Thomas Hobbes'il õigus. Tema ütles,
11:42
that life in a state of nature was "solitary, poor, nasty, brutish
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et elu oli loomulikus olekus "üksildane, vaene, vastik, elajalik
11:47
and short." Not because, he argued,
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ja lühike." Mitte sellepärast, ta väitis,
11:51
humans have some primordial thirst for blood
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et inimestel oleks mingi loomuomane verejanu
11:54
or aggressive instinct or territorial imperative,
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või agressiivne instinkt või territoriaalsus,
11:58
but because of the logic of anarchy. In a state of anarchy,
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vaid anarhia loogika tõttu. Anarhias
12:01
there's a constant temptation to invade your neighbors preemptively,
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on pidev kiusatus igaks-juhuks naabrid enne vallutada,
12:05
before they invade you. More recently, Thomas Schelling
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kui nad sind vallutavad. Thomas Schelling käib välja
12:08
gives the analogy of a homeowner who hears a rustling
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hiljutisema analoogia peremehest, kes kuuleb keldris
12:11
in the basement. Being a good American, he has a pistol
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krabinat. Olles tõeline ameeriklane, on tal öökapis
12:13
in the nightstand, pulls out his gun, and walks down the stairs.
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püstol, ta võtab selle välja ja läheb trepist alla.
12:17
And what does he see but a burglar with a gun in his hand.
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Ja mis ta muud näeb, kui varast, püstol käes.
12:20
Now, each one of them is thinking,
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Mõlemad mõtlevad:
12:21
"I don't really want to kill that guy, but he's about to kill me.
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"Tegelikult ma seda tüüpi tappa ei taha, aga kohe tapab tema minu.
12:25
Maybe I had better shoot him, before he shoots me,
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Võibolla ma parem tulistan teda enne kui tema mind,
12:29
especially since, even if he doesn't want to kill me,
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eriti kuna isegi kui ta mind tappa ei taha,
12:31
he's probably worrying right now that I might kill him
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siis ta ilmselt muretseb, et ma äkki tapan ta
12:34
before he kills me." And so on.
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enne kui ta minu tapab." Ja nii edasi.
12:37
Hunter-gatherer peoples explicitly go through this train of thought,
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Kütid ja korilased järgivad täpselt seda mõttekäiku
12:42
and will often raid their neighbors out of fear of being raided first.
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ja sageli ründavad oma naabreid hirmust, et neid rünnatakse enne.
12:47
Now, one way of dealing with this problem is by deterrence.
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Üks moodus sellest üle saada on hoiatus:
12:50
You don't strike first, but you have a publicly announced policy
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sa ei ründa esimesena, aga kuulutad avalikult,
12:55
that you will retaliate savagely if you are invaded.
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et maksad valusalt kätte kui sind rünnatakse.
12:58
The only thing is that it's
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Ainus häda on see, et seda võidakse
13:00
liable to having its bluff called, and therefore can only work
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bluffiks pidada, ja toimib seega ainult siis, kui
13:05
if it's credible. To make it credible, you must avenge all insults
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on usutav. Et seda usutavaks teha, pead sa iga solvangu eest kätte maksma
13:10
and settle all scores, which leads to the cycles of bloody vendetta.
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ja kõik arved õiendama, mis viib veriste vendetta-tsükliteni.
13:14
Life becomes an episode of "The Sopranos." Hobbes' solution,
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Elust saab Sopranode seriaal. Hobbes'i lahendus,
13:19
the "Leviathan," was that if authority for the legitimate use
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"Leviathan", on et kui autoriteet vägivalla õigustatud
13:23
of violence was vested in a single democratic agency -- a leviathan --
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kasutamise üle antakse üheainsa demokraatliku üksuse ehk leviathani kätte,
13:29
then such a state can reduce the temptation of attack,
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siis selline riik võib vähendada ründamise kiusatust,
13:32
because any kind of aggression will be punished,
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sest igasugune agressioon saab karistatud,
13:35
leaving its profitability as zero. That would remove the temptation
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mis muudab selle tasuvuse nulliks. See kustutaks kiusatuse
13:40
to invade preemptively, out of fear of them attacking you first.
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teise rünnakut kartes esimesena igaks juhuks rünnata.
13:44
It removes the need for a hair trigger for retaliation
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Ja võtab ära vajaduse iga juuksekarva pärast kätte maksta,
13:48
to make your deterrent threat credible. And therefore, it would lead
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et oma hoiatus usutavaks teha. Ja seega viiks see
13:51
to a state of peace. Eisner -- the man who plotted the homicide rates
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rahuni. Eisner -- mees, kes kaardistas mõrvade määrad
13:57
that you failed to see in the earlier slide --
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mida te eelmisel slaidil ei näinud --
14:00
argued that the timing of the decline of homicide in Europe
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väitis, et mõrvade vähenemine Euroopas
14:04
coincided with the rise of centralized states.
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langes kokku tsentraliseeritud riikide tõusuga.
14:08
So that's a bit of a support for the leviathan theory.
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See toetab natuke leviathani teooriat.
14:11
Also supporting it is the fact that we today see eruptions of violence
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Samuti toetab seda fakt, et täna näeme me vägivalla plahvatusi
14:15
in zones of anarchy, in failed states, collapsed empires,
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anarhiatsoonides: läbikukkunud riikides, langenud impeeriumites,
14:19
frontier regions, mafias, street gangs and so on.
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piiritsoonides, maffiates, tänavagängides ja nii edasi.
14:25
The second explanation is that in many times and places,
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Teine seletus on, et paljudel ajastutel ja paljudes kohtades
14:28
there is a widespread sentiment that life is cheap.
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oli levinud tunne, et elu on odav.
14:32
In earlier times, when suffering and early death were common
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Varasematel aegadel, kui kannatus ja varane surm olid
14:36
in one's own life, one has fewer compunctions about inflicting them
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tavalised, tunti nende põhjustamise üle vähem südametunnistusepiinu.
14:40
on others. And as technology and economic efficiency make life
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Ja kui tehnoloogia ja majanduslik efektiivsus teevad elu
14:44
longer and more pleasant, one puts a higher value on life in general.
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pikemaks ja mõnusamaks, väärtustatakse elu üldiselt rohkem.
14:48
This was an argument from the political scientist James Payne.
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See oli politoloogi James Payne'i argument.
14:52
A third explanation invokes the concept of a nonzero-sum game,
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Kolmas seletus põhineb ideel "mitte-null-summa mäng",
14:56
and was worked out in the book "Nonzero" by the journalist
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ja püstitati raamatus Mitte-Null, mille kirjutas ajakirjanik
15:00
Robert Wright. Wright points out that in certain circumstances,
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Robert Wright. Wright osutab, et teatud olukorras võib
15:04
cooperation or non-violence can benefit both parties
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koostöö, sealhulgas vägivallatus, mõlemale poolele suhtes
15:07
in an interaction, such as gains in trade when two parties trade
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kasulik olla, näiteks kaubanduses, kui kaks osapoolt oma ülejäägid
15:13
their surpluses and both come out ahead, or when two parties
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vahetavad ja mõlemal on parem, või kui kaks osapoolt
15:17
lay down their arms and split the so-called peace dividend
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langetavad relvad ja teevad niinimetatud rahu dividendid pooleks,
15:20
that results in them not having to fight the whole time.
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mis tähendab et nad ei pea kogu aeg võitlema.
15:24
Wright argues that technology has increased the number
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Wright väidab, et tehnoloogia on suurendanud
15:26
of positive-sum games that humans tend to be embroiled in,
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positiivse summaga mängude arvu, kus inimesed osalevad,
15:31
by allowing the trade of goods, services and ideas
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lubades kaupu, teenuseid ja ideid
15:34
over longer distances and among larger groups of people.
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suurte gruppide vahel üle pikkade vahemaade vahetada.
15:38
The result is that other people become more valuable alive than dead,
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Selle tulemusena on teised inimesed elusatena rohkem väärt kui surnutena,
15:41
and violence declines for selfish reasons. As Wright put it,
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ja vägivald langeb isekatel põhjustel. Nagu Wright ütles:
15:47
"Among the many reasons that I think that we should not bomb
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"Üks paljudest põhjustest, miks ma arvan, et me ei peaks jaapanlasi
15:49
the Japanese is that they built my mini-van."
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pommitama, on see, et nemad ehitasid mu auto."
15:52
(Laughter)
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(Naer)
15:54
The fourth explanation is captured in the title of a book
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Neljas seletus seisneb ühe raamatu pealkirjas
15:58
called "The Expanding Circle," by the philosopher Peter Singer,
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nimega "Laienev Ring", mille autor on filosoof Peter Singer,
16:02
who argues that evolution bequeathed humans with a sense
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kes väidab, et evolutsioon on kinkinud inimestele
16:05
of empathy, an ability to treat other peoples' interests
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empaatiavõime: võime kohelda teiste inimeste huvisid
16:10
as comparable to one's own. Unfortunately, by default
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enda huvidega sarnaselt. Kahjuks, tavaliselt
16:14
we apply it only to a very narrow circle of friends and family.
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kasutame me empaatiat ainult sõprade ja pere kitsas ringis.
16:18
People outside that circle are treated as sub-human,
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Inimesi väljaspool seda ringi koheldakse alaväärselt,
16:21
and can be exploited with impunity. But, over history,
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ja neid tohib süüdimatult ära kasutada. Kuid ajaloo jooksul
16:25
the circle has expanded. One can see, in historical record,
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on ring laienenud. Ajaloolised andmed näitavad,
16:29
it expanding from the village, to the clan, to the tribe,
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kuidas see laieneb külale, klannile, hõimule,
16:33
to the nation, to other races, to both sexes,
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rahvusele, teistele rassidele, mõlemale soole,
16:36
and, in Singer's own arguments, something that we should extend
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ja, Singeri väitel, peaksime me seda laiendama
16:38
to other sentient species. The question is,
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teistele teadlikele liikidele. Küsimus on,
16:43
if this has happened, what has powered that expansion?
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kui see tõesti juhtus, siis mille mõjul?
16:46
And there are a number of possibilities, such as increasing circles
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Ja võimalusi on mitu, näiteks suurenev vastastikuste
16:49
of reciprocity in the sense that Robert Wright argues for.
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teenete arv, väidab Robert Wright.
16:54
The logic of the golden rule -- the more you think about and interact
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Kuldne reegel: mida rohkem sa teistele inimestele mõtled ja
16:58
with other people, the more you realize that it is untenable
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nendega suhtled, seda enam sa mõistad, et
17:02
to privilege your interests over theirs,
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et sinu huvisid nende omadele eelistada on alusetu,
17:06
at least not if you want them to listen to you. You can't say
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vähemalt siis, kui sa tahad et nad sind kuulaksid. Sa ei saa öelda,
17:09
that my interests are special compared to yours,
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et minu huvid on sinu omadest erilisemad,
17:12
anymore than you can say that the particular spot
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nagu sa ei saa öelda, et koht, kus
17:15
that I'm standing on is a unique part of the universe
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ma seisan, on eriline osa universumist,
17:18
because I happen to be standing on it that very minute.
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kuna mina juhtun siin just praegu seisma.
17:21
It may also be powered by cosmopolitanism, by histories,
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Seda võib toita ka kosmopoliitsus: ajalugu
17:25
and journalism, and memoirs, and realistic fiction, and travel,
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ja ajakirjandus ja memuaarid ja realistlik ilukirjandus ja reisimine
17:29
and literacy, which allows you to project yourself into the lives
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ja kirjaoskus, mis lubavad sul ennast ette kujutada
17:33
of other people that formerly you may have treated as sub-human,
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nende inimestena, keda sa varem võibolla alaväärseks pidasid,
17:37
and also to realize the accidental contingency of your own station
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ja sa mõistad, kuivõrd su enda eluolu juhustest sõltub,
17:41
in life, the sense that "there but for fortune go I."
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kui palju on sõltunud lihtsalt õnnest.
17:46
Whatever its causes, the decline of violence, I think,
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Mis iganes selle põhjustas, vägivalla langusel
17:49
has profound implications. It should force us to ask not just, why
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on sügavad implikatsioonid. See paneb meid küsima mitte ainult,
17:53
is there war? But also, why is there peace? Not just,
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"Miks on sõjad?" vaid samuti "Miks on rahu?" Mitte ainult,
17:58
what are we doing wrong? But also, what have we been doing right?
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"Mida me valesti teeme?" vaid ka "Mida me õigesti teinud oleme?"
18:02
Because we have been doing something right,
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Sest me oleme midagi õigesti teinud,
18:04
and it sure would be good to find out what it is.
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ja oleks hea teada saada, mis see on.
18:06
Thank you very much.
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Tänan teid väga.
18:07
(Applause).
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(Aplaus)
18:18
Chris Anderson: I loved that talk. I think a lot of people here in the room would say
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Chris Anderson: Mulle väga meeldis see kõne. Paljud arvavad,
18:22
that that expansion of -- that you were talking about,
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et selle laienemise -- millest sa rääkisid,
18:25
that Peter Singer talks about, is also driven by, just by technology,
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millest Peter Singer räägib, on põhjustanud tehnoloogia,
18:28
by greater visibility of the other, and the sense that the world
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teistega suurem kokkupuutumine, ja tunne et maailm
18:32
is therefore getting smaller. I mean, is that also a grain of truth?
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muutub väiksemaks. Kas sellel on ka tõetera sees?
18:36
Steven Pinker: Very much. It would fit both in Wright's theory,
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Steven Pinker: Väga. See haakub nii Wright'i teooriaga,
18:40
that it allows us to enjoy the benefits of cooperation
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mis võimaldab meil aina suuremates ringides koostöö
18:44
over larger and larger circles. But also, I think it helps us
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hüvesid nautida. Aga samuti ma usun, et see aitab meil
18:49
imagine what it's like to be someone else. I think when you read
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ette kujutada, mis tunne on olla keegi teine. Kui lugeda
18:52
these horrific tortures that were common in the Middle Ages, you think,
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õudsete piinamiste kohta keskajal, siis sa mõtled,
18:55
how could they possibly have done it,
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kuidas nad ometi suutsid seda teha,
18:57
how could they have not have empathized with the person
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kuidas nad ei tundnud sellele inimesele kaasa,
19:00
that they're disemboweling? But clearly,
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kelle soolikaid nad välja lasid. Aga ilmselt,
19:03
as far as they're concerned, this is just an alien being
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nende jaoks oli see mingi võõras olend,
19:06
that does not have feelings akin to their own. Anything, I think,
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kellel pole tundeid nagu neil endil. Ükskõik mis,
19:09
that makes it easier to imagine trading places
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mis teeb kohtade vahetuse ettekujutamise lihtsamaks,
19:12
with someone else means that it increases your moral consideration
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suurendab sinu võimet moraalselt teise inimesega
19:15
to that other person.
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arvestada.
19:16
CA: Well, Steve, I would love every news media owner to hear that talk
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CA: Steve, mulle meeldiks kui iga meediamogul seda ettekannet
19:20
at some point in the next year. I think it's really important. Thank you so much.
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lähima aasta jooksul kuuleks. Ma usun et see on väga tähtis. Tänan väga.
19:22
SP: My pleasure.
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SP: Hea meelega.
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Steven Pinker - PsychologistSteven Pinker is a professor of cognitive science (the study of the human mind) who writes about language, mind and human nature.
Why you should listen
Steven Pinker grew up in the English-speaking community of Montreal but has spent his adult life bouncing back and forth between Harvard and MIT. He is interested in all aspects of human nature: how we see, hear, think, speak, remember, feel and interact.
To be specific: he developed the first comprehensive theory of language acquisition in children, used verb meaning as a window into cognition, probed the limits of neural networks and showed how the interaction between memory and computation shapes language. He has used evolution to illuminate innuendo, emotional expression and social coordination. He has documented historical declines in violence and explained them in terms of the ways that the violent and peaceable components of human nature interact in different eras. He has written books on the language instinct, how the mind works, the stuff of thought and the doctrine of the blank slate, together with a guide to stylish writing that is rooted in psychology.
In his latest book, Enlightenment Now: The Case for Reason, Science, Humanism, and Progress, he writes about progress -- why people are healthier, richer, safer, happier and better educated than ever. His other books include The Language Instinct, How the Mind Works, The Blank Slate: The Modern Denial of Human Nature, The Stuff of Thought, and The Better Angels of Our Nature.
Steven Pinker | Speaker | TED.com