TED2007
Steven Pinker: The surprising decline in violence
Steven Pinker o mitu nasilja
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Steven Pinker prikazuje pad razine nasilja od biblijskih vremena do danas te tvrdi da, iako ta tvrdnja izgleda nelogično pa čak i opsceno s obzirom na Irak i Darfur, živimo u najmirnijem razdoblju postojanja naše vrste.
Steven Pinker - Psychologist
Steven Pinker is a professor of cognitive science (the study of the human mind) who writes about language, mind and human nature. Full bio
Steven Pinker is a professor of cognitive science (the study of the human mind) who writes about language, mind and human nature. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:25
Images like this, from the Auschwitz concentration camp,
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Prizori poput ovog iz koncentracijskog logora Auschwitz,
00:29
have been seared into our consciousness during the twentieth century
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urezali su se u našu svijest tijekom 20. stoljeća
00:34
and have given us a new understanding of who we are,
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i pružili su nam novo shvaćanje o tome tko smo,
00:39
where we've come from and the times we live in.
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odakle dolazimo i o vremenu u kojemu živimo.
00:42
During the twentieth century, we witnessed the atrocities
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Tijekom 20. stoljeća svjedočili smo zločinima
00:46
of Stalin, Hitler, Mao, Pol Pot, Rwanda and other genocides,
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Staljina, Hitlera, Maoa, Pol Pota, genocidu u Ruandi i drugdje,
00:51
and even though the twenty-first century is only seven years old,
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a iako 21. stoljeće traje tek sedam godina
00:55
we have already witnessed an ongoing genocide in Darfur
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već smo svjedočili genocidu u Darfuru, koji je u tijeku,
00:59
and the daily horrors of Iraq.
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i svakodnevnim užasima Iraka.
01:02
This has led to a common understanding of our situation,
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To je oblikovalo opće mišljenje o našoj situaciji,
01:05
namely that modernity has brought us terrible violence, and perhaps
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kako je suvremeno doba donijelo užasnu razinu nasilja i kako su možda
01:09
that native peoples lived in a state of harmony that we have departed from, to our peril.
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primitivni ljudi živjeli u skladu kojeg smo mi,
01:12
Here is an example
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na svoju pogibelj, izgubili. Evo primjera:
01:17
from an op-ed on Thanksgiving, in the Boston Globe
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komentar povodom Dana zahvalnosti u Boston Globeu
01:20
a couple of years ago, where the writer wrote, "The Indian life
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prije par godina, u kojem autor piše: "Život Indijanaca
01:24
was a difficult one, but there were no employment problems,
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bio je težak, ali nije bilo problema s nezaposlenošću,
01:27
community harmony was strong, substance abuse unknown,
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društvo je bilo skladno, nije bilo ovisnosti,
01:30
crime nearly non-existent, what warfare there was between tribes
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kriminal gotovo da i nije postojao, a ako bi izbio rat među plemenima
01:34
was largely ritualistic and seldom resulted in indiscriminate
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bio je uglavnom ritualan i rijetko je vodio neselektivnom
01:37
or wholesale slaughter." Now, you're all familiar with this treacle.
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ili masovnom pokolju." Svi ste upoznati s ovim romantičnim viđenjem.
01:42
We teach it to our children. We hear it on television
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Prenosimo ga djeci, čujemo na televiziji
01:45
and in storybooks. Now, the original title of this session
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i čitamo u pričama. Izvorni naslov ovoga predavanja
01:50
was, "Everything You Know Is Wrong," and I'm going to present evidence
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bio je "Sve što znate je pogrešno" i predstaviti ću dokaze
01:53
that this particular part of our common understanding is wrong,
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da je ovo konkretno opće uvjerenje pogrešno:
01:56
that, in fact, our ancestors were far more violent than we are,
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da su naši preci zapravo bili daleko nasilniji od nas,
02:00
that violence has been in decline for long stretches of time,
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da se razina nasilja kroz dugo vrijeme smanjivala
02:04
and that today we are probably living in the most peaceful time in our species' existence.
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te da danas vjerojatno živimo u najmirnijem razdoblju
02:07
Now, in the decade of Darfur and Iraq,
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postojanja naše vrste. U desetljeću Darfura i Iraka
02:12
a statement like that might seem somewhere between hallucinatory
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takva se tvrdnja može činiti zaluđenom
02:15
and obscene. But I'm going to try to convince you
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ili čak opscenom. Ali pokušat ću vas uvjeriti
02:18
that that is the correct picture. The decline of violence
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kako je ispravna. Smanjivanje razine nasilja
02:24
is a fractal phenomenon. You can see it over millennia,
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fraktalni je fenomen. Možete ga pratiti kroz tisućljeća,
02:27
over centuries, over decades and over years,
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kroz stoljeća, kroz desetljeća i kroz godine,
02:31
although there seems to have been a tipping point at the onset
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iako je, izgleda, došlo do prekretnice početkom
02:33
of the Age of Reason in the sixteenth century. One sees it
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Doba razuma u 16. stoljeću.
02:37
all over the world, although not homogeneously.
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Primjetna je u cijelom svijetu, iako ne podjednako.
02:41
It's especially evident in the West, beginning with England
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Posebno je vidljiva na Zapadu, isprva u Engleskoj
02:44
and Holland around the time of the Enlightenment.
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i Nizozemskoj oko razdoblja Prosvjetiteljstva.
02:47
Let me take you on a journey of several powers of 10 --
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Povesti ću vas na putovanje od nekoliko faktora 10 -
02:51
from the millennium scale to the year scale --
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s tisućljetne razine na godišnju -
02:53
to try to persuade you of this. Until 10,000 years ago, all humans
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kako bi vas pokušao uvjeriti u to. Do prije 10.000 godina, svi ljudi
02:57
lived as hunter-gatherers, without permanent settlements
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živjeli su kao lovci-skupljači, bez trajnih naseobina ili vlada.
03:00
or government. And this is the state that's commonly thought
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Ovo stanje općenito se smatra
03:03
to be one of primordial harmony. But the archaeologist
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društvom izvornog sklada. Međutim,
03:09
Lawrence Keeley, looking at casualty rates
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arheolog Lawrence Keely, istražujući učestalost smrti
03:13
among contemporary hunter-gatherers, which is our best source
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među suvremenim lovcima-skupljačima - što je naš najbolji izvor
03:17
of evidence about this way of life, has shown a rather different conclusion.
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činjenica o njihovom načinu života - došao je do drugačijeg zaključka.
03:23
Here is a graph that he put together
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Na ovome grafu prikazao je
03:25
showing the percentage of male deaths due to warfare
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postotak muškaraca umrlih kao posljedica ratovanja
03:28
in a number of foraging, or hunting and gathering societies.
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u više skupljačkih i lovačko-skupljačkih društava.
03:33
The red bars correspond to the likelihood that a man will die
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Crvene crte odgovaraju vjerojatnosti da je čovjeka ubio
03:39
at the hands of another man, as opposed to passing away
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drugi čovjek, nasuprot vjerojatnosti smrti
03:42
of natural causes, in a variety of foraging societies
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od prirodnih uzroka, u raznim skupljačkim društvima
03:46
in the New Guinea Highlands and the Amazon Rainforest.
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na visoravnima Nove Gvineje i u prašumama Amazone.
03:50
And they range from a rate of almost a 60 percent chance that a man will die
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Postoci su u rasponu od gotovo 60% vjerojatnosti smrti
03:53
at the hands of another man to, in the case of the Gebusi,
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kao posljedice ubojstva do, u slučaju Gebusija,
03:57
only a 15 percent chance. The tiny, little blue bar in the lower
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samo 15%. Mala plava crta u donjem lijevom kutu
04:01
left-hand corner plots the corresponding statistic from United States
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označava odgovarajuću statistiku za SAD i Europu u 20. stoljeću
04:05
and Europe in the twentieth century, and includes all the deaths
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i uključuje sve smrti u oba svjetska rata.
04:09
of both World Wars. If the death rate in tribal warfare had prevailed
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Da se smrtnost plemenskog ratovanja održala i tijekom 20. stoljeća,
04:14
during the 20th century, there would have been two billion deaths rather than 100 million.
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poginule bi dvije milijarde ljudi, umjesto 100 milijuna.
04:20
Also at the millennium scale, we can look
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Također, na razini tisućljeća možemo uočiti
04:23
at the way of life of early civilizations such as the ones described
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način života ranih civilizacija, poput onih opisanih
04:28
in the Bible. And in this supposed source of our moral values,
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u Bibliji. U tom tobožnjem izvoru naših moralnih vrijednosti
04:33
one can read descriptions of what was expected in warfare,
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može se pročitati što se očekivalo u ratu,
04:37
such as the following from Numbers 31: "And they warred
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kao na primjer u Brojevima 31: "I pođoše u boj
04:40
against the Midianites as the Lord commanded Moses,
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proti Midjanaca, kako je bio Gospod zapovjedio Mojsiju,
04:43
and they slew all the males. And Moses said unto them,
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i pobiše sve muške osobe. Reče im Mojsije:
04:46
'Have you saved all the women alive? Now, therefore, kill every male
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"A što ostaviste na životu sve žene? Zato sada pobijte svu
04:50
among the little ones and kill every woman that hath known man
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djecu mušku i sve žene udate.
04:53
by lying with him, but all the women children that have not know a man
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A sve mlade djevojke, koje još nijesu udate,
04:57
by lying with him keep alive for yourselves.'" In other words,
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ostavite za sebe na životu." Drugim riječima,
05:00
kill the men; kill the children; if you see any virgins,
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ubijete muškarce, ubijte djecu, a ako vidite djevice
05:05
then you can keep them alive so that you can rape them.
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možete ih ostaviti na životu kako bi ih mogli silovati.
05:08
You can find four or five passages in the Bible of this ilk.
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Možete pronaći četiri ili pet ovakvih odlomaka u Bibliji.
05:12
Also in the Bible, one sees that the death penalty
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Također, u Bibliji je smrtna kazna
05:15
was the accepted punishment for crimes such as homosexuality,
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prihvatljiva za zločine poput homoseksualnosti,
05:20
adultery, blasphemy, idolatry, talking back to your parents --
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preljuba, bogohulstva, idolatrije, drskog odgovaranja roditeljima -
05:24
(Laughter) -- and picking up sticks on the Sabbath.
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(smijeh) - i skupljanje granja na šabat
05:28
Well, let's click the zoom lens
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Približimo se sada
05:31
down one order of magnitude, and look at the century scale.
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za jedan red veličine i pogledajmo razinu stoljeća.
05:34
Although we don't have statistics for warfare throughout
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Iako nemamo statistike ratovanja za razdoblje
05:39
the Middle Ages to modern times,
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od srednjeg vijeka do suvremenog doba,
05:40
we know just from conventional history -- the evidence
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znamo iz konvencionalne povijesti -
05:43
was under our nose all along that there has been a reduction
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cijelo vrijeme su nam pod nosom bili dokazi da se smanjivala
05:47
in socially sanctioned forms of violence.
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razina društveno prihvatljivog nasilja.
05:50
For example, any social history will reveal that mutilation and torture
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Na primjer, društvena povijest nam kazuje kako su sakaćenje i mučenje
05:54
were routine forms of criminal punishment. The kind of infraction
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bili rutinski oblici kažnjavanja kriminalaca. Prekršaj zbog kojega
05:57
today that would give you a fine, in those days would result in
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bi danas dobili novčanu kaznu, u to doba bio bi kažnjen
06:01
your tongue being cut out, your ears being cut off, you being blinded,
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odsjecanjem jezika, ušiju ili osljepljivanjem,
06:05
a hand being chopped off and so on.
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odsijecanjem ruke i slično.
06:07
There were numerous ingenious forms of sadistic capital punishment:
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Postojali su brojni domišljati oblici sadističkih smrtnih kazni:
06:12
burning at the stake, disemboweling, breaking on the wheel,
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paljenje na lomači, vađenje utrobe, lomljenje na kotaču,
06:15
being pulled apart by horses and so on.
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četvorenje i tako dalje.
06:18
The death penalty was a sanction for a long list of non-violent crimes:
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Smrt je bila kazna za čitav niz nenasilnih zločina:
06:22
criticizing the king, stealing a loaf of bread. Slavery, of course,
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kritiziranje kralja, krađu kruha. Ropstvo je, naravno,
06:27
was the preferred labor-saving device, and cruelty was
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bilo omiljen način uštede na radnoj snazi, a okrutnost je
06:31
a popular form of entertainment. Perhaps the most vivid example
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bila popularan oblik zabave. Možda je najzorniji primjer
06:34
was the practice of cat burning, in which a cat was hoisted
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praksa paljenja mačaka, kada bi mačku objesili
06:37
on a stage and lowered in a sling into a fire,
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na pozornici i spustili u vatru,
06:40
and the spectators shrieked in laughter as the cat, howling in pain,
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a publika bi vrištala od smijeha dok bi mačka, zavijajući od boli,
06:46
was burned to death.
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bila spaljena na smrt.
06:48
What about one-on-one murder? Well, there, there are good statistics,
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Što je s pojedinačnim ubojstvima? Za to postoje dobre statistike
06:51
because many municipalities recorded the cause of death.
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jer su mnoge općine bilježili uzroke smrti.
06:57
The criminologist Manuel Eisner
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Kriminolog Manuel Eisner
07:02
scoured all of the historical records across Europe
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pretražio je sve povijesne zapise diljem Europe,
07:04
for homicide rates in any village, hamlet, town, county
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tražeći stope ubojstva u svim selima, zaseocima, gradovima i okruzima
07:09
that he could find, and he supplemented them
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koje je mogao naći i nadopunio ih je
07:11
with national data, when nations started keeping statistics.
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podacima na nacionalnoj razini od vremena kad su se počele voditi.
07:15
He plotted on a logarithmic scale, going from 100 deaths
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Unio ih je na logaritamsku skalu, počevši sa 100 smrti
07:22
per 100,000 people per year, which was approximately the rate
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na 100.000 ljudi na godinu, što je otprilike stopa
07:28
of homicide in the Middle Ages. And the figure plummets down
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ubojstava u srednjem vijeku. Vrijednost se obrušila
07:33
to less than one homicide per 100,000 people per year
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na manje od jednog ubojstva na 100.000 ljudi godišnje
07:38
in seven or eight European countries. Then, there is a slight uptick
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u sedam ili osam europskih zemalja. Postoji manji porast
07:42
in the 1960s. The people who said that rock 'n' roll would lead
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tijekom 1960-ih. Tvrdnje kako će rock dovesti
07:46
to the decline of moral values actually had a grain of truth to that.
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do pada moralnih vrijednosti zapravo su imale zrno istine u sebi.
07:50
But there was a decline from at least two orders of magnitude
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No, došlo je do pada stope ubojstava od barem
07:54
in homicide from the Middle Ages to the present,
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dva reda veličine od srednjeg vijeka do sadašnjosti,
07:57
and the elbow occurred in the early sixteenth century.
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a do prijeloma je došlo početkom 16. stoljeća.
08:02
Let's click down now to the decade scale.
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Spustimo se na razinu desetljeća.
08:04
According to non-governmental organizations
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Prema nevladinim organizacijama
08:07
that keep such statistics, since 1945, in Europe and the Americas,
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koje su vodile takve statistike, od 1945. u Europi i Amerikama
08:11
there has been a steep decline in interstate wars,
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došlo je do naglog smanjenja broja međudržavnih ratova,
08:15
in deadly ethnic riots or pogroms, and in military coups,
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smrtonosnih etničkih nereda ili pogroma i vojnih udara,
08:19
even in South America. Worldwide, there's been a steep decline
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čak i u Južnoj Americi. U cijelom svijetu, naglo je smanjen broj
08:23
in deaths in interstate wars. The yellow bars here show the number
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smrti u međudržavnim ratovima. Žuti stupci pokazuju broj
08:29
of deaths per war per year from 1950 to the present.
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smrti po ratu po godini od 1950. do danas.
08:34
And, as you can see, the death rate goes down from 65,000 deaths
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Kao što možete vidjeti, stopa smrtnosti pala je sa 65.000 smrti
08:38
per conflict per year in the 1950s to less than 2,000 deaths
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po sukobu po godini 1950. na manje od 2.000 smrti
08:42
per conflict per year in this decade, as horrific as it is.
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po sukobu po godini u ovome desetljeću, iako je i to tragično.
08:46
Even in the year scale, one can see a decline of violence.
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Čak je i na razini godina primjetan pad razine nasilja.
08:50
Since the end of the Cold War, there have been fewer civil wars,
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Od kraja Hladnoga rata manje je građanskih ratova,
08:53
fewer genocides -- indeed, a 90 percent reduction since post-World War II highs --
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manje genocida - pad od 90% od vrhunca u godinama nakon Drugoga svjetskog rata,
08:59
and even a reversal of the 1960s uptick in homicide and violent crime.
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a čak je i preokrenut porast stope ubojstava i nasilnih zločina iz 1960-ih.
09:05
This is from the FBI Uniform Crime Statistics. You can see
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Ovo je prema unificiranim statistikama kriminala FBI-a: kao što vidite
09:09
that there is a fairly low rate of violence in the '50s and the '60s,
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razina nasilja prilično je niska 50-ih i 60-ih,
09:13
then it soared upward for several decades, and began
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zatim je porasla kroz nekoliko desetljeća i počela
09:17
a precipitous decline, starting in the 1990s, so that it went back
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strmo padati, počevši od '90-ih te se vratila
09:21
to the level that was last enjoyed in 1960.
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gotovo na razinu iz 1960.
09:25
President Clinton, if you're here, thank you.
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Predsjedniče Clinton, ako ste ovdje, hvala vam.
09:27
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
09:29
So the question is, why are so many people so wrong
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Dakle pitanje je: zašto je toliko ljudi u krivu
09:32
about something so important? I think there are a number of reasons.
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u nečemu tako važnome? Smatram kako postoji niz razloga.
09:36
One of them is we have better reporting. The Associated Press
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Jedan je taj što imamo bolja izviješća: "Associated Press
09:39
is a better chronicler of wars over the surface of the Earth
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bolji je kroničar ratova na Zemlji
09:43
than sixteenth-century monks were.
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no što su to bili redovnici iz 16. stoljeća."
09:47
There's a cognitive illusion. We cognitive psychologists know that the easier it is
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Postoji spoznajna iluzija: mi kognitivni psiholozi znamo da
09:52
to recall specific instances of something,
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što se je lakše prisjetiti konkretnih primjera nečega,
09:55
the higher the probability that you assign to it.
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tome pripisujemo veću vjerojatnost.
09:58
Things that we read about in the paper with gory footage
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Svari koje pročitamo u novinama sa krvavim snimkama
10:02
burn into memory more than reports of a lot more people dying
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zapeku nam se u sjećanje snažnije nego izvješća o smrti
10:06
in their beds of old age. There are dynamics in the opinion
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daleko većeg broja ljudi od starosti.
10:12
and advocacy markets: no one ever attracted observers, advocates
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Tržišta zagovaranja su dinamična: nitko ne privlači promatrače,
10:17
and donors by saying
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zagovornike i donatore govoreći
10:19
things just seem to be getting better and better.
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"čini se da se situacija stalno poboljšava."
10:21
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
10:22
There's guilt about our treatment of native peoples
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Prisutan je osjećaj krivnje u modernom intelektualnom
10:25
in modern intellectual life, and an unwillingness to acknowledge
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životu zbog našeg tretmana domorodaca i nespremnosti na priznanje
10:28
there could be anything good about Western culture.
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kako bi moglo biti nečega dobrog u zapadnjačkoj kulturi.
10:31
And of course, our change in standards can outpace the change
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I naravno, promjene naših standarda mogu preteči promjene
10:36
in behavior. One of the reasons violence went down
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u ponašanju. Jedan od razloga zašto se razina nasilja smanjila
10:39
is that people got sick of the carnage and cruelty in their time.
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je taj što je ljudima bilo dosta pokolja i okrutnosti u njihovo doba.
10:42
That's a process that seems to be continuing,
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Taj se proces, izgleda, nastavlja,
10:45
but if it outstrips behavior by the standards of the day,
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ali ako pretiće ponašanje u odnosu na suvremene standarde,
10:49
things always look more barbaric than they would have been
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stvari uvijek izgledaju barbarskije nego što bi bile
10:52
by historic standards. So today, we get exercised -- and rightly so --
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po povijesnim mjerilima. Stoga se danas uznemirujemo - i to s pravom -
10:56
if a handful of murderers get executed by lethal injection
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ako se nekoliko ubojica pogubi smrtonosnom injekcijom
11:02
in Texas after a 15-year appeal process. We don't consider
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u Teksasu nakon 15-ogodišnjeg žalbenog postupka. Ne uzimamo u obzir
11:07
that a couple of hundred years ago, they may have been burned
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činjenicu da bi prije nekoliko stoljeća možda bili spaljeni
11:10
at the stake for criticizing the king after a trial
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na lomači zbog kritiziranja kralja nakon suđenja
11:13
that lasted 10 minutes, and indeed, that that would have been repeated
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koje bi trajalo 10 minuta - i da bi se to uvijek iznova
11:16
over and over again. Today, we look at capital punishment
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ponavljalo. Danas smrtnu kaznu smatramo
11:21
as evidence of how low our behavior can sink,
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dokazom niske razine na koju se naše ponašanje može spustiti,
11:24
rather than how high our standards have risen.
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umjesto dokaza kako su se naši standardi povisili.
11:28
Well, why has violence declined? No one really knows,
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Dakle, zašto se razina nasilja smanjila? Nitko zapravo ne zna,
11:31
but I have read four explanations, all of which, I think,
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ali pročitao sam četiri objašnjenja, i mislim da je svako od njih
11:36
have some grain of plausibility. The first is, maybe
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donekle uvjerljivo. Prvo od njih je:
11:39
Thomas Hobbes got it right. He was the one who said
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možda je Thomas Hobbes bio u pravu. On je rekao da je
11:42
that life in a state of nature was "solitary, poor, nasty, brutish
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život u prirodnom stanju bio "usamljenički, siromašan, gadan, nasilan
11:47
and short." Not because, he argued,
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i kratak." Ne zato, tvrdio je, što su
11:51
humans have some primordial thirst for blood
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ljudi po prirodi krvožedni,
11:54
or aggressive instinct or territorial imperative,
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ili zbog agresivnog instinkta ili teritorijalnih pitanja,
11:58
but because of the logic of anarchy. In a state of anarchy,
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nego zbog logike anarhije. U stanju anarhije
12:01
there's a constant temptation to invade your neighbors preemptively,
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postoji stalno iskušenje preventivnog napada na susjeda,
12:05
before they invade you. More recently, Thomas Schelling
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prije no što on napadne tebe. Kasnije je Thomas Schelling
12:08
gives the analogy of a homeowner who hears a rustling
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iznio analogiju s kućevlasnikom koji čuje buku
12:11
in the basement. Being a good American, he has a pistol
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u podrumu. Kao dobar Amerikanac, ima pištolj
12:13
in the nightstand, pulls out his gun, and walks down the stairs.
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uz krevet, uzima ga i spušta se niz stube.
12:17
And what does he see but a burglar with a gun in his hand.
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Tamo vidi provalnika koji također drži pištolj.
12:20
Now, each one of them is thinking,
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I jedan i drugi misle,
12:21
"I don't really want to kill that guy, but he's about to kill me.
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"Zapravo ne želim ubiti tog tipa, no on se sprema ubiti mene.
12:25
Maybe I had better shoot him, before he shoots me,
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Možda je bolje da ga upucam prije nego on mene,
12:29
especially since, even if he doesn't want to kill me,
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pogotovo zato što, čak i ako me ne namjerava ubiti,
12:31
he's probably worrying right now that I might kill him
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vjerojatno također brine da bi ja mogao ubiti njega
12:34
before he kills me." And so on.
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prije nego što on ubije mene." - i tako dalje.
12:37
Hunter-gatherer peoples explicitly go through this train of thought,
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Lovačko-skupljačka plemena eksplicitno prolaze kroz takav tok misli
12:42
and will often raid their neighbors out of fear of being raided first.
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i često će napasti susjede iz straha da ne bi sami bili napadnuti.
12:47
Now, one way of dealing with this problem is by deterrence.
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Jedan od načina rješavanja ovog problema je odvraćanje:
12:50
You don't strike first, but you have a publicly announced policy
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ne napadate prvi, ali javno obznanite politiku
12:55
that you will retaliate savagely if you are invaded.
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kako ćete se divljački osvetiti ako netko napadne vas.
12:58
The only thing is that it's
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Jedini problem s takvom politikom
13:00
liable to having its bluff called, and therefore can only work
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je njena ranjivost na prozivanje blefa, i može funkcionirati jedino
13:05
if it's credible. To make it credible, you must avenge all insults
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ako je uvjerljiva. Da bi bila uvjerljiva morate osvetiti sve uvrede
13:10
and settle all scores, which leads to the cycles of bloody vendetta.
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i podmiriti sve račune, što dovodi do ciklusa krvnih osveta.
13:14
Life becomes an episode of "The Sopranos." Hobbes' solution,
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Život postaje epizoda Sopranosa. Hobbesovo riješenje,
13:19
the "Leviathan," was that if authority for the legitimate use
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"Levijatan," počiva na povjeravanju ovlasti za legitimnu uporabu
13:23
of violence was vested in a single democratic agency -- a leviathan --
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sile jednom demokratskom organu - levijatanu -
13:29
then such a state can reduce the temptation of attack,
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tada takvo stanje umanjuje iskušenje za napad,
13:32
because any kind of aggression will be punished,
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jer bi svaka agresija bila kažnjena,
13:35
leaving its profitability as zero. That would remove the temptation
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što bi poništilo njenu isplativost. To bi uklonilo i iskušenje
13:40
to invade preemptively, out of fear of them attacking you first.
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preventivnog napada zbog straha da ćete biti napadnuti.
13:44
It removes the need for a hair trigger for retaliation
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Također, uklanja potrebu za brzim osvetama
13:48
to make your deterrent threat credible. And therefore, it would lead
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kojima se prijetnja odmazde čini uvjerljivom. Stoga bi to dovelo
13:51
to a state of peace. Eisner -- the man who plotted the homicide rates
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do stanja mira. Eisner - čovjek koji je zabilježio stope ubojstava koje
13:57
that you failed to see in the earlier slide --
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niste mogli vidjeti na ranijoj slici -
14:00
argued that the timing of the decline of homicide in Europe
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tvrdio je kako je pad stope ubojstava u Europi
14:04
coincided with the rise of centralized states.
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istovremen sa usponom centralizirane države.
14:08
So that's a bit of a support for the leviathan theory.
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To donekle podržava teoriju levijatana.
14:11
Also supporting it is the fact that we today see eruptions of violence
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Također, podržava je i činjenica što danas svjedočimo erupciji nasilja
14:15
in zones of anarchy, in failed states, collapsed empires,
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u anarhičnim zonama: neuspjelim državama, palim carstvima,
14:19
frontier regions, mafias, street gangs and so on.
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graničnim regijama, mafijama, uličnim bandama itd.
14:25
The second explanation is that in many times and places,
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Drugo objašnjenje je da u mnogim dobima i mjestima
14:28
there is a widespread sentiment that life is cheap.
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postoji rašireni osjećaj da je život jeftin.
14:32
In earlier times, when suffering and early death were common
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U prijašnjim vremenima, kada je patnja i preuranjena smrt bila uobičajna
14:36
in one's own life, one has fewer compunctions about inflicting them
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u životu pojedinca, bilo je manje grižnje savjesti oko nanošenja istih
14:40
on others. And as technology and economic efficiency make life
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drugima. Kako tehnologija i gospodarska učinkovitost čine život
14:44
longer and more pleasant, one puts a higher value on life in general.
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dužim i ugodnijim, pojedinac više vrednuje život.
14:48
This was an argument from the political scientist James Payne.
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To je bio argument politologa Jamesa Paynea.
14:52
A third explanation invokes the concept of a nonzero-sum game,
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Treće objašnjenje poziva se na koncept "igre nenultog zbroja,"
14:56
and was worked out in the book "Nonzero" by the journalist
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i razrađeno je u knjizi "Nonzero" novinara
15:00
Robert Wright. Wright points out that in certain circumstances,
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Roberta Wrighta. Wright ističe da u određenim okolnostima
15:04
cooperation or non-violence can benefit both parties
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suradnja, uključujući nenasilje, može koristiti objema stranama
15:07
in an interaction, such as gains in trade when two parties trade
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u interakciji, npr. u trgovini kada dvije strane razmjenjuju
15:13
their surpluses and both come out ahead, or when two parties
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svoje viškove obje zarađuju, ili kada dvije strane
15:17
lay down their arms and split the so-called peace dividend
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polože oružje i podijele tzv. dividendu mira,
15:20
that results in them not having to fight the whole time.
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rezultat toga što se ne moraju stalno boriti.
15:24
Wright argues that technology has increased the number
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Wright tvrdi da je tehnologija povećala broj
15:26
of positive-sum games that humans tend to be embroiled in,
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igara pozitivnog zbroja u koje se ljudi uključuju
15:31
by allowing the trade of goods, services and ideas
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omogućavajući trgovinu dobrima, uslugama i idejama
15:34
over longer distances and among larger groups of people.
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preko većih udaljenosti i između većih grupa ljudi.
15:38
The result is that other people become more valuable alive than dead,
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Kao rezultat toga, drugi ljudi postaju vredniji živi nego mrtvi,
15:41
and violence declines for selfish reasons. As Wright put it,
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a razina nasilja opada zbog sebičnih razloga. Kako se Wright izrazio,
15:47
"Among the many reasons that I think that we should not bomb
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"Među brojnim razlozima zašto smatram da ne bi trebali bombardirati
15:49
the Japanese is that they built my mini-van."
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Japance je i taj što su napravili moj karavan."
15:52
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
15:54
The fourth explanation is captured in the title of a book
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Četvrto objašnjenje izraženo je u naslovu knjige
15:58
called "The Expanding Circle," by the philosopher Peter Singer,
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"Šireći krugovi" filozofa Petera Singera,
16:02
who argues that evolution bequeathed humans with a sense
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koji tvrdi da je evolucija podala ljudima osjećaj
16:05
of empathy, an ability to treat other peoples' interests
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empatije: sposobnost odnošenja prema tuđim interesima
16:10
as comparable to one's own. Unfortunately, by default
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usporedivo kao s vlastitima. Nažalost, obično ga
16:14
we apply it only to a very narrow circle of friends and family.
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primjenjujemo samo na vrlo uski krug prijatelja i obitelji.
16:18
People outside that circle are treated as sub-human,
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Ljude izvan tog kruga tretiramo kao podljude,
16:21
and can be exploited with impunity. But, over history,
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koji se mogu iskorištavati bez posljedica. Ali tijekom povijesti,
16:25
the circle has expanded. One can see, in historical record,
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krug se širio. U povijesnim zapisima je vidljivo
16:29
it expanding from the village, to the clan, to the tribe,
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njegovo širenje od sela na klan, pa na pleme,
16:33
to the nation, to other races, to both sexes,
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na naciju, na druge rase, na oba spola,
16:36
and, in Singer's own arguments, something that we should extend
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a prema Singeru trebali bi ga proširiti i na
16:38
to other sentient species. The question is,
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druge svjesne vrste. Pitanje je,
16:43
if this has happened, what has powered that expansion?
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ako je do toga došlo, što je potaklo to širenje?
16:46
And there are a number of possibilities, such as increasing circles
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Postoji niz mogućnosti. Proširenje krugova
16:49
of reciprocity in the sense that Robert Wright argues for.
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reciprociteta u smislu koji zagovara Robert Wright.
16:54
The logic of the golden rule -- the more you think about and interact
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Logika zlatnog pravila: što više razmišljate o drugim ljudima
16:58
with other people, the more you realize that it is untenable
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i dolazite u susret s njima, to više shvaćate da je neodrživo
17:02
to privilege your interests over theirs,
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davati prednost vlastitim interesima nad njihovima,
17:06
at least not if you want them to listen to you. You can't say
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barem ako želite da vas slušaju. Ne možete reći
17:09
that my interests are special compared to yours,
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kako su moji interesi posebni u usporedbi s tvojim
17:12
anymore than you can say that the particular spot
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kao što ne možete reći ni da je određeno mjesto
17:15
that I'm standing on is a unique part of the universe
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na kojem stojite jedinstveno u svemiru
17:18
because I happen to be standing on it that very minute.
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jer se slučajno nalazite na njemu u tom trenutku.
17:21
It may also be powered by cosmopolitanism, by histories,
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Širenje je mogao potaći i kozmopolitizam: putem historiografija,
17:25
and journalism, and memoirs, and realistic fiction, and travel,
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novinarstva, memoara, realističke beletristike, putovanja
17:29
and literacy, which allows you to project yourself into the lives
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i literaturu, koji su vam omogućili da projicirate sebe na živote
17:33
of other people that formerly you may have treated as sub-human,
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drugih koje ste možda prije smatrali podljudima,
17:37
and also to realize the accidental contingency of your own station
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te da shvatite slučajnost svoje životne situacije,
17:41
in life, the sense that "there but for fortune go I."
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osjećaj "da nisam bio ovakve sreće, to sam mogao biti ja."
17:46
Whatever its causes, the decline of violence, I think,
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Koji god bili uzroci, pad razine nasilja
17:49
has profound implications. It should force us to ask not just, why
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ima značajne posljedice. Trebali bi se zapitati ne samo "Zašto
17:53
is there war? But also, why is there peace? Not just,
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postoji rat?" nego i "Zašto postoji mir?" Ne samo
17:58
what are we doing wrong? But also, what have we been doing right?
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"Što činimo krivo?" nego i "Što smo činili ispravno?"
18:02
Because we have been doing something right,
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Jer nešto jesmo činili ispravno,
18:04
and it sure would be good to find out what it is.
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i svakako bi bilo dobro znati što.
18:06
Thank you very much.
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Puno vam hvala.
18:07
(Applause).
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(Pljesak)
18:18
Chris Anderson: I loved that talk. I think a lot of people here in the room would say
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Chris Anderson: Uživao sam u izlaganju. Smatram da bi mnogi ovdje rekli
18:22
that that expansion of -- that you were talking about,
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da je proširenje o kojemu ste govorili,
18:25
that Peter Singer talks about, is also driven by, just by technology,
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o kojemu govori i Singer, također poticano samom tehnologijom,
18:28
by greater visibility of the other, and the sense that the world
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većom vidljivosti drugih i osjećajem da svijet
18:32
is therefore getting smaller. I mean, is that also a grain of truth?
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postaje manji. Mislim, ima li nešto i u tome?
18:36
Steven Pinker: Very much. It would fit both in Wright's theory,
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Steven Pinker: Svakako. To bi se uklopilo u Wrightovu teoriju,
18:40
that it allows us to enjoy the benefits of cooperation
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jer nam omogućuje uživati dobrobiti surađivanja
18:44
over larger and larger circles. But also, I think it helps us
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u sve većim i većim krugovima. Ali mislim i da nam pomaže
18:49
imagine what it's like to be someone else. I think when you read
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zamisliti kako je biti netko drugi. Mislim da kada čitate
18:52
these horrific tortures that were common in the Middle Ages, you think,
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o stravičnim mučenjima koja su bila uobičajena u srednjem vijeku mislite,
18:55
how could they possibly have done it,
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kako li su to uopće mogli činiti,
18:57
how could they have not have empathized with the person
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kako nisu osjećali empatiju prema osobi
19:00
that they're disemboweling? But clearly,
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kojoj su vadili utrobu? Ali očito,
19:03
as far as they're concerned, this is just an alien being
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što se njih ticalo, to je tek jedno strano biće
19:06
that does not have feelings akin to their own. Anything, I think,
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koje nema osjećaje poput njihovih. Smatram da sve
19:09
that makes it easier to imagine trading places
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što olakšava zamisliti zamjenu mjesta
19:12
with someone else means that it increases your moral consideration
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s nekim drugim istovremeno povećava obzirnost
19:15
to that other person.
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prema toj drugoj osobi.
19:16
CA: Well, Steve, I would love every news media owner to hear that talk
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CA: Pa Steve, volio bih da svi vlasnici medija čuju ovo izlaganje
19:20
at some point in the next year. I think it's really important. Thank you so much.
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tijekom sljedeće godine. Mislim da je stvarno bitno. Puno vam hvala.
19:22
SP: My pleasure.
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SP: Bilo mi je zadovoljstvo.
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Steven Pinker - PsychologistSteven Pinker is a professor of cognitive science (the study of the human mind) who writes about language, mind and human nature.
Why you should listen
Steven Pinker grew up in the English-speaking community of Montreal but has spent his adult life bouncing back and forth between Harvard and MIT. He is interested in all aspects of human nature: how we see, hear, think, speak, remember, feel and interact.
To be specific: he developed the first comprehensive theory of language acquisition in children, used verb meaning as a window into cognition, probed the limits of neural networks and showed how the interaction between memory and computation shapes language. He has used evolution to illuminate innuendo, emotional expression and social coordination. He has documented historical declines in violence and explained them in terms of the ways that the violent and peaceable components of human nature interact in different eras. He has written books on the language instinct, how the mind works, the stuff of thought and the doctrine of the blank slate, together with a guide to stylish writing that is rooted in psychology.
In his latest book, Enlightenment Now: The Case for Reason, Science, Humanism, and Progress, he writes about progress -- why people are healthier, richer, safer, happier and better educated than ever. His other books include The Language Instinct, How the Mind Works, The Blank Slate: The Modern Denial of Human Nature, The Stuff of Thought, and The Better Angels of Our Nature.
Steven Pinker | Speaker | TED.com