TEDxSummit
Juan Enriquez: Will our kids be a different species?
Juan Enriquez: Hoće li naša djeca biti druga vrsta?
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Kroz čovjekov razvoj, istovremeno su postojale višestruke verzije ljudi. Bismo li mi sada mogli biti na pola nadogradnje? Na TEDxSummit-u Juan Enriquez leti kroz vrijeme i prostor da bi nas doveo do sadašnjosti -- i pokazuje nam kako tehnologija otkriva dokaze koji govore da bi u toku mogla biti brza evolucija.
Juan Enriquez - Futurist
Juan Enriquez thinks and writes about the profound changes that genomics and other life sciences will bring in business, technology, politics and society. Full bio
Juan Enriquez thinks and writes about the profound changes that genomics and other life sciences will bring in business, technology, politics and society. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
All right. So, like all good stories,
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U redu. Kao i svaka dobra priča,
00:18
this starts a long, long time ago
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i ova počinje nekada davno
00:20
when there was basically nothing.
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kada praktički nije bilo ničega.
00:22
So here is a complete picture of the universe
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Ovdje je cjelokupna slika svemira
00:24
about 14-odd billion years ago.
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prije oko 14 milijardi godina.
00:28
All energy is concentrated into a single point of energy.
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Sva energija je koncentrirana u jednoj jedinoj točki energije.
00:31
For some reason it explodes,
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Iz nekog razloga eksplodira,
00:32
and you begin to get these things.
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i počinjete dobivati ovo.
00:35
So you're now about 14 billion years into this.
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Sada ste 14 milijardi godina u prošlosti.
00:37
And these things expand and expand and expand
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I to se širi i širi
00:39
into these giant galaxies,
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u ove ogromne galaksije,
00:41
and you get trillions of them.
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i dobijete ih na bilijune.
00:42
And within these galaxies
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A unutar ovih galaksija
00:44
you get these enormous dust clouds.
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dobijete ove ogromne oblake prašine.
00:47
And I want you to pay particular attention
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Posebnu pažnju želim posvetiti
00:48
to the three little prongs
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ovim trima šiljcima
00:50
in the center of this picture.
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u središtu ove slike.
00:52
If you take a close-up of those,
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Ako ih uvećate,
00:53
they look like this.
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izgledaju ovako.
00:55
And what you're looking at is columns of dust
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Gledate stupce prašine
00:58
where there's so much dust --
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gdje ima toliko prašine --
01:00
by the way, the scale of this is a trillion vertical miles --
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usput, mjerilo je bilijun vertikalnih milja,
01:04
and what's happening is there's so much dust,
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a ovdje ima toliko prašine,
01:07
it comes together and it fuses
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da se skuplja i sjedinjuje
01:09
and ignites a thermonuclear reaction.
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i dovodi do termonuklearne reakcije.
01:12
And so what you're watching
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Upravo gledate
01:13
is the birth of stars.
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rođenje zvijezde.
01:15
These are stars being born out of here.
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Ove se zvijezde rađaju odavde.
01:17
When enough stars come out,
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Kada dovoljno zvijezda izađe,
01:19
they create a galaxy.
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stvore galaksiju.
01:21
This one happens to be a particularly important galaxy,
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Ovo je, naime, veoma važna galaksija,
01:24
because you are here.
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zato što ste vi ovdje.
01:27
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
01:28
And as you take a close-up of this galaxy,
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I kako uvećavate snimku ove galaksije,
01:30
you find a relatively normal,
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pronađete jednu relativno normalnu,
01:32
not particularly interesting star.
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ne baš zanimljivu zvijezdu.
01:34
By the way, you're now about two-thirds of the way into this story.
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Usput, sad smo na dvije trećine ove priče.
01:38
So this star doesn't even appear
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Dakle, ova zvijezda se ni ne pojavi
01:40
until about two-thirds of the way into this story.
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do oko dvije trećine priče.
01:43
And then what happens
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A onda
01:44
is there's enough dust left over
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je dovoljno prašine preostalo
01:46
that it doesn't ignite into a star,
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pa se ne upali u zvijezdu,
01:48
it becomes a planet.
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već postane planet.
01:50
And this is about a little over four billion years ago.
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A to se dogodilo prije malo više od 4 milijarde godina.
01:54
And soon thereafter
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A uskoro nakon toga
01:56
there's enough material left over
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preostalo je dovoljno materijala
01:58
that you get a primordial soup,
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da dobijete svemirsku juhu,
02:02
and that creates life.
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iz koje nastaje život.
02:04
And life starts to expand and expand and expand,
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I život se počne širiti i širiti,
02:08
until it goes kaput.
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dok ne ode k vragu.
02:10
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
02:13
Now the really strange thing
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Zbilja je neobično što
02:15
is life goes kaput, not once, not twice,
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život ne ode k vragu jednom, dvaput,
02:18
but five times.
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već pet puta.
02:20
So almost all life on Earth
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Pa je skoro sav život na Zemlji
02:22
is wiped out about five times.
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izbrisan oko pet puta.
02:24
And as you're thinking about that,
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I kako razmišljate o tome,
02:26
what happens is you get more and more complexity,
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dobivate sve više kompleksnosti,
02:28
more and more stuff
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sve više stvari
02:30
to build new things with.
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za izgradnju novih stvari.
02:34
And we don't appear
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A mi se ne pojavljujemo
02:35
until about 99.96 percent of the time into this story,
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do oko 99.96% priče,
02:41
just to put ourselves and our ancestors in perspective.
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tek da bismo to usporedili sa sobom i našim precima.
02:44
So within that context, there's two theories of the case
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Unutar tog konteksta postoje dvije teorije
02:48
as to why we're all here.
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zašto smo svi ovdje.
02:50
The first theory of the case
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Prva teorija
02:51
is that's all she wrote.
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je da je to gotova priča.
02:55
Under that theory,
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Prema toj teoriji,
02:56
we are the be-all and end-all
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mi smo sve što postoji i kraj
02:58
of all creation.
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svega što postoji.
03:00
And the reason for trillions of galaxies,
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A razlog za postojanje bilijuna galaksija,
03:02
sextillions of planets,
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trilijuna planeta,
03:04
is to create something that looks like that
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jest stvoriti nešto što izgleda ovako
03:09
and something that looks like that.
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i nešto što izgleda onako.
03:13
And that's the purpose of the universe;
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I to je svrha svemira;
03:14
and then it flat-lines,
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kada umre,
03:16
it doesn't get any better.
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neće biti ništa bolje.
03:17
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
03:21
The only question you might want to ask yourself is,
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Jedino pitanje koje biste si možda željeli postaviti
03:24
could that be just mildly arrogant?
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jest: Nije li to pomalo arogantno?
03:29
And if it is --
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A ako jest --
03:31
and particularly given the fact that we came very close to extinction.
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posebice zato što smo došli veoma blizu izumiranju.
03:37
There were only about 2,000 of our species left.
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U prošlosti je bilo preostalo samo 2.000 jedinki naše vrste.
03:40
A few more weeks without rain,
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Još nekoliko tjedana bez kiše
03:42
we would have never seen any of these.
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i nikada ne bismo vidjeli ništa od ovoga.
03:45
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
03:52
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
03:56
So maybe you have to think about a second theory
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Pa možda trebate razmisliti o drugoj teoriji
03:59
if the first one isn't good enough.
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ako prva nije dovoljno dobra.
04:02
Second theory is: Could we upgrade?
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Druga teorija je: Možemo li se nadograditi?
04:04
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
04:07
Well, why would one ask a question like that?
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Pa zašto bi netko tako nešto pitao?
04:10
Because there have been at least 29 upgrades so far
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Zato što je bilo barem 29 nadogradnji humanoida
04:13
of humanoids.
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do sada.
04:15
So it turns out that we have upgraded.
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Ispada da smo se već nadograđivali.
04:18
We've upgraded time and again and again.
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Nadograđivali smo se opet i opet iznova.
04:20
And it turns out that we keep discovering upgrades.
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I ispada da i dalje otkrivamo nadogradnje.
04:22
We found this one last year.
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Ovu smo našli prošle godine.
04:25
We found another one last month.
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Još jednu smo našli prošli mjesec.
04:27
And as you're thinking about this,
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I dok razmišljate o tome,
04:29
you might also ask the question:
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mogli biste se zapitati:
04:32
So why a single human species?
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Pa zašto samo jedna ljudska vrsta?
04:35
Wouldn't it be really odd
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Ne bi li bilo stvarno čudno
04:36
if you went to Africa and Asia and Antarctica
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da odete u Afriku, Aziju i na Antartiku
04:40
and found exactly the same bird --
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i nađete u potpunosti istu pticu --
04:43
particularly given that we co-existed at the same time
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osobito ako uzmemo u obzir da smo postojali istovremeno
04:47
with at least eight other versions of humanoid
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s barem osam drugih verzija humanoida
04:49
at the same time on this planet?
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na ovom planetu?
04:52
So the normal state of affairs
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Normalno stanje
04:54
is not to have just a Homo sapiens;
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nije imati samo Homo sapiensa;
04:56
the normal state of affairs
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normalno stanje je da
04:57
is to have various versions of humans walking around.
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uokolo hodaju različite verzije ljudi.
05:01
And if that is the normal state of affairs,
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A ako je to normalno stanje,
05:04
then you might ask yourself,
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tada biste se mogli zapitati:
05:06
all right, so if we want to create something else,
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Ako želimo stvoriti nešto drugo,
05:08
how big does a mutation have to be?
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koliko velika mutacija treba biti?
05:11
Well Svante Paabo has the answer.
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Svante Paabo ima odgovor.
05:14
The difference between humans and Neanderthal
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Razlika između ljudi i Neandertalaca
05:17
is 0.004 percent of gene code.
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iznosi 0.004% genetskog koda.
05:20
That's how big the difference is
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Tolika je razlika
05:22
one species to another.
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između te dvije vrste.
05:24
This explains most contemporary political debates.
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To objašnjava najsuvremenije političke rasprave.
05:28
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
05:30
But as you're thinking about this,
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Ali dok razmišljate o tome,
05:33
one of the interesting things
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jedna od zanimljivosti
05:35
is how small these mutations are and where they take place.
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jest koliko su te mutacije male i gdje se odvijaju.
05:38
Difference human/Neanderthal
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Razlika između čovjeka i Neandertalca
05:40
is sperm and testis,
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je u spermi i testisima,
05:41
smell and skin.
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njuhu i koži.
05:43
And those are the specific genes
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A to su konkretni geni
05:44
that differ from one to the other.
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koji se razlikuju od jednog do drugog.
05:47
So very small changes can have a big impact.
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Dakle, veoma male promjene mogu imati veliki učinak.
05:50
And as you're thinking about this,
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A dok razmišljate o tome,
05:52
we're continuing to mutate.
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nastavljamo mutirati.
05:54
So about 10,000 years ago by the Black Sea,
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Prije oko 10.000 godina kraj Crnog mora
05:57
we had one mutation in one gene
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dogodila se jedna mutacija u jednom genu
05:59
which led to blue eyes.
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koja je dovela do plavih očiju.
06:02
And this is continuing and continuing and continuing.
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I to se nastavlja i nastavlja.
06:05
And as it continues,
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I kako se nastavlja,
06:07
one of the things that's going to happen this year
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ove godine ćemo otkriti
06:09
is we're going to discover the first 10,000 human genomes,
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prvih 10.000 ljudskih genoma,
06:12
because it's gotten cheap enough to do the gene sequencing.
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zato što je sekvenciranje gena postalo dovoljno jeftino.
06:15
And when we find these,
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A kada ih nađemo,
06:17
we may find differences.
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mogli bismo naći razlike.
06:19
And by the way, this is not a debate that we're ready for,
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Usput, to nije rasprava za koju smo spremni
06:22
because we have really misused the science in this.
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zato što smo uistinu zloupotrijebili znanost u tome.
06:26
In the 1920s, we thought there were major differences between people.
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U 1920-ima, mislili smo da postoje važne razlike između ljudi.
06:29
That was partly based on Francis Galton's work.
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To je dijelom bilo zbog rada Francisa Galtona.
06:33
He was Darwin's cousin.
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Bio je Darwinov rođak.
06:35
But the U.S., the Carnegie Institute,
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Ali SAD, Carnegie institut,
06:38
Stanford, American Neurological Association
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Stanford, American Neurological Association
06:40
took this really far.
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su zbilja otišli daleko s tim.
06:42
That got exported and was really misused.
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Ideja je izvezena i zbilja zloupotrebljena.
06:46
In fact, it led to some absolutely horrendous
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U biti, dovela je do nekih zbilja groznih
06:48
treatment of human beings.
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postupaka prema ljudskim bićima.
06:50
So since the 1940s, we've been saying there are no differences,
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Od 1940-ih govorimo da ne postoje razlike,
06:53
we're all identical.
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da smo svi isti.
06:54
We're going to know at year end if that is true.
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Do kraja godine ćemo znati je li to istina.
06:58
And as we think about that,
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I dok razmišljamo o tome,
06:59
we're actually beginning to find things
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počeli smo zbilja pronalaziti stvari.
07:01
like, do you have an ACE gene?
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Na primjer, imate li ACE gen?
07:04
Why would that matter?
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Zašto bi to bilo važno?
07:06
Because nobody's ever climbed an 8,000-meter peak without oxygen
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Zato što su svi koji su se ikad popeli na vrh visok 8.000 metara bez kisika
07:10
that doesn't have an ACE gene.
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imali ACE gen.
07:13
And if you want to get more specific,
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Ako želite ići u detalje,
07:15
how about a 577R genotype?
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što kažete na 577R genotip?
07:18
Well it turns out that every male Olympic power athelete ever tested
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Ispada da svaki muški olimpijski atletičar ikad testiran
07:23
carries at least one of these variants.
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ima barem jednu od ovih varijanti.
07:26
If that is true,
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Ako je to točno,
07:28
it leads to some very complicated questions
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dolazi do nekih vrlo složenih pitanja
07:30
for the London Olympics.
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za londonske Olimpijske igre.
07:32
Three options:
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Postoje tri mogućnosti.
07:33
Do you want the Olympics to be a showcase
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Želite li da Olimpijske igre budu izlog
07:36
for really hardworking mutants?
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za veoma marljive mutante?
07:39
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
07:40
Option number two:
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Druga mogućnost:
07:43
Why don't we play it like golf or sailing?
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Zašto se ne bismo natjecali kao u golfu ili jedrenju?
07:47
Because you have one and you don't have one,
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Zato što ga ti imaš, a on nema,
07:49
I'll give you a tenth of a second head start.
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njemu ću dati desetinku sekunde prednosti.
07:53
Version number three:
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Verzija broj tri:
07:54
Because this is a naturally occurring gene
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Zato šo je to gen koji se prirodno javlja,
07:56
and you've got it and you didn't pick the right parents,
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ti ga imaš, a on nije odabrao prave roditelje,
07:59
you get the right to upgrade.
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ima pravo na nadogradnju.
08:03
Three different options.
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Tri različite mogućnosti.
08:05
If these differences are the difference
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Ako su te razlike one razlike
08:06
between an Olympic medal and a non-Olympic medal.
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koje odlučuju o osvajanju ili ne-osvajanju olimpijske medalje.
08:10
And it turns out that as we discover these things,
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I čini se da kako otkrivamo te stvari,
08:12
we human beings really like to change
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mi ljudska bića zbilja volimo mijenjati
08:16
how we look, how we act,
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način na koji izgledamo, kako se ponašamo,
08:17
what our bodies do.
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što naša tijela rade.
08:19
And we had about 10.2 million plastic surgeries in the United States,
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Bilo je oko 10,2 milijuna plastičnih operacija u SAD-u,
08:23
except that with the technologies that are coming online today,
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samo što će se s tehnologijama koje će doći online ovih dana,
08:27
today's corrections, deletions,
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današnje korekcije, brisanja,
08:29
augmentations and enhancements
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povećanja i poboljšanja
08:31
are going to seem like child's play.
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činiti kao dječja igra.
08:34
You already saw the work by Tony Atala on TED,
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Već ste vidjeli rad Tonyja Atale na TED-u,
08:38
but this ability to start filling
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ali ta sposobnost da se počnu puniti
08:42
things like inkjet cartridges with cells
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stvari poput spremnika boje stanicama
08:45
are allowing us to print skin, organs
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dopušta nam da tiskamo kožu, organe
08:49
and a whole series of other body parts.
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i cijeli niz drugih dijelova tijela.
08:52
And as these technologies go forward,
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A kako te tehnologije napreduju,
08:54
you keep seeing this, you keep seeing this, you keep seeing things --
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stalno viđate ovo, i ovo, viđate stvari --
08:58
2000, human genome sequence --
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2000., sekvenca humanog genoma --
09:00
and it seems like nothing's happening,
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i čini se da se ništa ne događa,
09:04
until it does.
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sve dok se ne dogodi.
09:07
And we may just be in some of these weeks.
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A možda smo baš u nekom od tih tjedana.
09:11
And as you're thinking about
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I dok razmišljate o
09:12
these two guys sequencing a human genome in 2000
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njih dvoje kako sekvenciraju ljudski genom u 2000.
09:16
and the Public Project sequencing the human genome in 2000,
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i o Public Projectu koji također sekvencira ljudski genom u 2000.,
09:19
then you don't hear a lot,
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tada ne čujete mnogo,
09:23
until you hear about an experiment last year in China,
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dok ne čujete o jednom pokusu u Kini prošle godine.
09:27
where they take skin cells from this mouse,
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U tom pokusu su uzeli stanice kože ovog miša,
09:31
put four chemicals on it,
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stavili četiri kemikalije na njih,
09:32
turn those skin cells into stem cells,
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pretvorili te stanice kože u matične stanice,
09:36
let the stem cells grow
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dopustili matičnim stanicama da rastu
09:37
and create a full copy of that mouse.
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i stvorili pravu kopiju tog miša.
09:40
That's a big deal.
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To je velika stvar.
09:44
Because in essence
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Zato što to u osnovi
09:45
what it means is you can take a cell,
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znači da možete uzeti stanicu,
09:47
which is a pluripotent stem cell,
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koja je pluripotentna matična stanica.
09:49
which is like a skier at the top of a mountain,
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Ta stanica je poput skijaša na vrhu planine,
09:52
and those two skiers become two pluripotent stem cells,
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a ova dva skijaša postanu dvije pluripotentne matične stanice,
09:56
four, eight, 16,
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četiri, osam, 16,
09:57
and then it gets so crowded
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i tada nastaje takva gužva
09:59
after 16 divisions
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nakon 16 dijeljenja
10:01
that those cells have to differentiate.
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da se te stanice moraju diferencirati.
10:03
So they go down one side of the mountain,
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Dakle, spuste se niz jednu stranu planine,
10:05
they go down another.
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spuste se niz drugu.
10:06
And as they pick that,
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I kako to odaberu,
10:08
these become bone,
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postaju kosti,
10:10
and then they pick another road and these become platelets,
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a onda odaberu drugu stazu i postaju trombociti,
10:13
and these become macrophages,
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ove postaju makrofagi,
10:15
and these become T cells.
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a ove postaju T limfociti.
10:16
But it's really hard, once you ski down,
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Ali zbilja je teško, jednom kad se spustite,
10:18
to get back up.
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popeti se natrag gore.
10:20
Unless, of course, if you have a ski lift.
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Osim ako, naravno, imate žičaru.
10:25
And what those four chemicals do
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A te četiri kemikalije
10:27
is they take any cell
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uzmu bilo koju stanicu
10:30
and take it way back up the mountain
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i odnesu je natrag gore na planinu
10:31
so it can become any body part.
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pa može postati bilo koji dio tijela.
10:33
And as you think of that,
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Kada razmislite,
10:35
what it means is potentially
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to znači da potencijalno
10:37
you can rebuild a full copy
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možete ponovno sagraditi pravu kopiju
10:39
of any organism
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bilo kojeg organizma
10:41
out of any one of its cells.
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iz bilo koje od njegovih stanica.
10:44
That turns out to be a big deal
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To je velika stvar
10:46
because now you can take, not just mouse cells,
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zato što možete uzeti, ne samo mišje stanice,
10:49
but you can human skin cells
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već ljudske stanice kože
10:51
and turn them into human stem cells.
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i pretvoriti ih u ljudske matične stanice.
10:55
And then what they did in October
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A onda su u listopadu
10:58
is they took skin cells, turned them into stem cells
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uzeli stanice kože, pretvorili ih u matične stanice
11:01
and began to turn them into liver cells.
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i počeli ih pretvarati u stanice jetre.
11:05
So in theory,
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Dakle, teoretski,
11:06
you could grow any organ from any one of your cells.
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mogli biste uzgojiti bilo koji organ iz bilo koje od vaših stanica.
11:11
Here's a second experiment:
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Evo drugog pokusa:
11:13
If you could photocopy your body,
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Kada biste mogli fotokopirati svoje tijelo,
11:16
maybe you also want to take your mind.
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možda biste također željeli uzeti i svoj um.
11:19
And one of the things you saw at TED
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A jedna od stvari koje ste vidjeli na TED-u
11:21
about a year and a half ago
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prije nekih godinu i pol
11:22
was this guy.
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bio je ovaj tip.
11:24
And he gave a wonderful technical talk.
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A on je održao prekrasan govor o tehnici.
11:26
He's a professor at MIT.
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Profesor je na MIT-u.
11:28
But in essence what he said
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Ali, u suštini, rekao je da
11:30
is you can take retroviruses,
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možete uzeti retroviruse,
11:31
which get inside brain cells of mice.
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koji dođu unutar mozgova miševa.
11:34
You can tag them with proteins
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Možete ih označiti proteinima
11:37
that light up when you light them.
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koji svijetle kada ih upalite.
11:39
And you can map the exact pathways
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I možete mapirati točne puteve
11:42
when a mouse sees, feels, touches,
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kada miš vidi, osjeća, dodiruje,
11:46
remembers, loves.
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pamti, voli.
11:48
And then you can take a fiber optic cable
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A onda možete uzeti kabel s optičkim vlaknima
11:50
and light up some of the same things.
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i upaliti neke od njih.
11:54
And by the way, as you do this,
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A to što radite,
11:56
you can image it in two colors,
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možete prikazati u dvije boje,
11:58
which means you can download this information
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što znači da možete downloadati tu informaciju
12:01
as binary code directly into a computer.
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kao binarni kod izravno na kompjuter.
12:05
So what's the bottom line on that?
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Koja je poanta toga?
12:08
Well it's not completely inconceivable
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Pa, nije u potpunosti nezamislivo
12:10
that someday you'll be able to download your own memories,
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da ćete jednog dana moći downloadati vlastita sjećanja,
12:14
maybe into a new body.
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možda u neko novo tijelo.
12:17
And maybe you can upload other people's memories as well.
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A možda ćete moći i uploadati i sjećanja drugih ljudi.
12:22
And this might have just one or two
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I to bi moglo imati samo jednu ili dvije
12:24
small ethical, political, moral implications.
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male etičke, političke, moralne implikacije.
12:28
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
12:29
Just a thought.
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To je samo zamisao.
12:32
Here's the kind of questions
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Evo vrste pitanja
12:34
that are becoming interesting questions
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1980
koja postaju zanimljivima
12:36
for philosophers, for governing people,
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za filozofe, ljude na vlasti,
12:38
for economists, for scientists.
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za ekonomiste, za znanstvenike.
12:42
Because these technologies are moving really quickly.
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Jer, te tehnologije napreduju veoma brzo.
12:45
And as you think about it,
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I dok razmišljate o tome,
12:47
let me close with an example of the brain.
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dopustite da dovršim jednim primjerom mozga.
12:50
The first place where you would expect
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Prvo mjesto na kojem biste očekivali
12:51
to see enormous evolutionary pressure today,
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vidjeti ogromni evolucijski pritisak danas,
12:54
both because of the inputs,
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i zbog inputa,
12:57
which are becoming massive,
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koji postaju obilni,
12:58
and because of the plasticity of the organ,
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i zbog plastičnosti tog organa,
13:00
is the brain.
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jest mozak.
13:03
Do we have any evidence that that is happening?
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Imamo li ikakve dokaze da se to događa?
13:06
Well let's take a look at something like autism incidence per thousand.
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Pogledajmo na pojavu autizma na 1.000 ljudi.
13:11
Here's what it looks like in 2000.
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Evo kako je to izgledalo 2000.
13:13
Here's what it looks like in 2002,
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Ovako je izgledalo 2002.,
13:15
2006, 2008.
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2006., 2008.
13:20
Here's the increase in less than a decade.
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Eto povećanja u periodu manjem od jednog desetljeća.
13:24
And we still don't know why this is happening.
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I još ne znamo zašto se to događa.
13:28
What we do know is, potentially,
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Ono što znamo jest da, vjerojatno,
13:31
the brain is reacting in
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mozak reagira na
13:33
a hyperactive, hyper-plastic way,
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hiperaktivan, hiper-plastičan način,
13:35
and creating individuals that are like this.
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i stvara pojedince koji su ovakvi.
13:38
And this is only one of the conditions that's out there.
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A to je samo jedan od uvjeta koji postoje.
13:41
You've also got people with who are extraordinarily smart,
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Postoje i ljudi koji su natprirodno pametni,
13:44
people who can remember everything they've seen in their lives,
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ljude koji se sjećaju svega što su u životu vidjeli,
13:47
people who've got synesthesia,
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ljude koji imaju sinesteziju,
13:48
people who've got schizophrenia.
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one koji imaju shizofreniju.
13:49
You've got all kinds of stuff going on out there,
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Mnogo se toga tu događa,
13:52
and we still don't understand
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a još uvijek ne razumijemo
13:53
how and why this is happening.
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kako i zašto.
13:55
But one question you might want to ask is,
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No, jedno pitanje koje biste možda željeli postaviti jest:
13:58
are we seeing a rapid evolution of the brain
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Vidimo li naglu evoluciju mozga
14:01
and of how we process data?
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i načina na koji obrađujemo podatke?
14:02
Because when you think of how much data's coming into our brains,
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Kada razmislite o tome koliko podataka dolazi u naš mozak,
14:05
we're trying to take in as much data in a day
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pokušavamo u jednom danu usvojiti toliko podataka
14:09
as people used to take in in a lifetime.
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koliko su ljudi usvajali tijekom cijelog života.
14:12
And as you're thinking about this,
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I dok razmišljate o tome,
14:14
there's four theories as to why this might be going on,
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postoje četiri teorije o tome zašto bi se to moglo događati,
14:16
plus a whole series of others.
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uz cijeli niz drugih.
14:18
I don't have a good answer.
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Ja nemam dobar odgovor.
14:19
There really needs to be more research on this.
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Zbilja bi trebalo biti više istraživanja o tome.
14:23
One option is the fast food fetish.
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Jedna mogućnost je fetiš brze prehrane.
14:25
There's beginning to be some evidence
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Počeli su se javljati dokazi da su
14:28
that obesity and diet
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pretilost i prehrana
14:30
have something to do
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nekako povezani
14:32
with gene modifications,
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s modifikacijom gena,
14:33
which may or may not have an impact
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što može, ali ne mora imati utjecaja
14:36
on how the brain of an infant works.
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na način na koji mozak novorođenčeta radi.
14:39
A second option is the sexy geek option.
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Druga mogućnost jest ona sexy štrebera.
14:43
These conditions are highly rare.
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Ti uvjeti su zbilja rijetki.
14:47
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
14:51
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
14:56
But what's beginning to happen
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Počelo se događati da,
14:57
is because these geeks are all getting together,
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zato što se ti štreberi okupljaju,
15:00
because they are highly qualified for computer programming
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zato što su visoko kvalificirani za programiranje kompjutera
15:03
and it is highly remunerated,
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što je veoma isplativo,
15:05
as well as other very detail-oriented tasks,
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kao i drugi poslovi orijentirani na detalje,
15:08
that they are concentrating geographically
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da su geografski koncentrirani
15:11
and finding like-minded mates.
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i pronalaze partnere sličnih svjetonazora.
15:14
So this is the assortative mating hypothesis
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To je hipoteza selektivnog križanja
15:17
of these genes reinforcing one another
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tih gena koji pojačavaju jedan drugog
15:20
in these structures.
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u tim strukturama.
15:22
The third, is this too much information?
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Treće, je li to previše informacija?
15:25
We're trying to process so much stuff
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Pokušavamo obraditi toliko toga
15:27
that some people get synesthetic
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da neki ljudi razviju sinesteziju
15:29
and just have huge pipes that remember everything.
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i imaju ogromne cijevi koje pamte sve.
15:32
Other people get hyper-sensitive to the amount of information.
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Drugi ljudi postaju hiper-osjetljivi na količinu informacija.
15:34
Other people react with various psychological conditions
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Drugi reagiraju različitim psihološkim stanjima
15:38
or reactions to this information.
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ili reakcijama na te informacije.
15:40
Or maybe it's chemicals.
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Ili su možda kemikalije u pitanju.
15:43
But when you see an increase
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Ali kada vidite porast
15:44
of that order of magnitude in a condition,
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tih razmjera kod nekog stanja,
15:47
either you're not measuring it right
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ili ga ne mjerite kako treba
15:48
or there's something going on very quickly,
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ili se nešto događa veoma brzo,
15:51
and it may be evolution in real time.
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a mogla bi to biti evolucija u stvarnom vremenu.
15:55
Here's the bottom line.
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Evo poante.
15:57
What I think we are doing
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Mislim da mi
15:59
is we're transitioning as a species.
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kao vrsta prelazimo u neko novo stanje.
16:01
And I didn't think this when Steve Gullans and I started writing together.
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A nisam to mislio kad smo Steve Gullans i ja počeli zajedno pisati.
16:07
I think we're transitioning into Homo evolutis
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Mislim da prelazimo u Homo evolutisa
16:09
that, for better or worse,
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koji, bilo to dobro ili loše,
16:11
is not just a hominid that's conscious of his or her environment,
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nije samo hominid svjestan svoje okoline,
16:15
it's a hominid that's beginning to directly and deliberately
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već hominid koji će početi izravno i namjerno
16:18
control the evolution of its own species,
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kontrolirati evoluciju vlastite vrste,
16:21
of bacteria, of plants, of animals.
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bakterija, biljaka, životinja.
16:25
And I think that's such an order of magnitude change
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Mislim da je to promjena tolikih razmjera
16:28
that your grandkids or your great-grandkids
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da bi vaši unuci ili praunuci
16:31
may be a species very different from you.
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mogli biti vrsta veoma drugačija od vaše.
16:34
Thank you very much.
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Puno vam hvala.
16:36
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Juan Enriquez - FuturistJuan Enriquez thinks and writes about the profound changes that genomics and other life sciences will bring in business, technology, politics and society.
Why you should listen
A broad thinker who studies the intersections of these fields, Enriquez has a talent for bridging disciplines to build a coherent look ahead. He is the managing director of Excel Venture Management, a life sciences VC firm. He recently published (with Steve Gullans) Evolving Ourselves: How Unnatural Selection and Nonrandom Mutation Are Shaping Life on Earth. The book describes a world where humans increasingly shape their environment, themselves and other species.
Enriquez is a member of the board of Synthetic Genomics, which recently introduced the smallest synthetic living cell. Called “JCVI-syn 3.0,” it has 473 genes (about half the previous smallest cell). The organism would die if one of the genes is removed. In other words, this is the minimum genetic instruction set for a living organism.
Juan Enriquez | Speaker | TED.com