TEDxSummit
Juan Enriquez: Will our kids be a different species?
Huan Enrikez (Juan Enriquez): Da li će naša deca biti drugačija vrsta?
Filmed:
Readability: 3.6
2,006,663 views
Tokom ljudske evolucije, postojale su različite vrste humanoida u istim periodima. Da li smo možda sada na polovini nadgradnje? Na TEDxSummit, Huan Enrikez leti kroz vreme i prostor kako bi nas doveo do sadašnjeg trenutka -- i pokazao kako tehnologija otkriva podatke da se ubrzana evolucija možda odvija pred nama.
Juan Enriquez - Futurist
Juan Enriquez thinks and writes about the profound changes that genomics and other life sciences will bring in business, technology, politics and society. Full bio
Juan Enriquez thinks and writes about the profound changes that genomics and other life sciences will bring in business, technology, politics and society. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
All right. So, like all good stories,
0
435
1983
U redu. Kao sve dobre priče
00:18
this starts a long, long time ago
1
2418
1934
i ova počinje jako, jako davno
00:20
when there was basically nothing.
2
4352
2149
kada praktično nije bilo ničega.
00:22
So here is a complete picture of the universe
3
6501
2400
Evo dakle kompletne slike svemira
00:24
about 14-odd billion years ago.
4
8901
3452
pre otprilike 14 milijardi godina.
00:28
All energy is concentrated into a single point of energy.
5
12353
3084
Sva energija je skoncentrisana u jednoj tački.
00:31
For some reason it explodes,
6
15437
1584
Iz nekog razloga ona eksplodira
00:32
and you begin to get these things.
7
17021
2116
i počinjete da dobijate ove stvari.
00:35
So you're now about 14 billion years into this.
8
19137
2866
Tako ste sada već 14 milijardi godina u ovome.
00:37
And these things expand and expand and expand
9
22003
1896
I te stvari se šire i šire i šire
00:39
into these giant galaxies,
10
23899
1699
u ove ogromne galaksije,
00:41
and you get trillions of them.
11
25598
1319
i dobijate bilione njih.
00:42
And within these galaxies
12
26917
2148
I u tim galaksijama
00:44
you get these enormous dust clouds.
13
29065
2119
imate ove ogromne oblake prašne.
00:47
And I want you to pay particular attention
14
31184
1765
I želim da obratite posebnu pažnju
00:48
to the three little prongs
15
32949
1450
na tri mala kraka
00:50
in the center of this picture.
16
34399
1901
u cenrtu slike.
00:52
If you take a close-up of those,
17
36300
1415
Ako ih pažljivo pogledate,
00:53
they look like this.
18
37715
1653
izgledaju ovako.
00:55
And what you're looking at is columns of dust
19
39368
2850
I to što vidite su stubovi prašine
00:58
where there's so much dust --
20
42218
2047
u kojima ima toliko prašine -
01:00
by the way, the scale of this is a trillion vertical miles --
21
44265
4333
inače, ova skala ima bilion vertikalnih milja -
01:04
and what's happening is there's so much dust,
22
48598
2918
i tu je toliko prašine,
01:07
it comes together and it fuses
23
51516
1934
da se ona spaja
01:09
and ignites a thermonuclear reaction.
24
53450
3459
i usijava do termonuklearne reakcije.
01:12
And so what you're watching
25
56909
842
I ono što gledate
01:13
is the birth of stars.
26
57751
1985
jeste rođenje zvezda.
01:15
These are stars being born out of here.
27
59736
1657
Ovo su zvezde koje su rođene tamo.
01:17
When enough stars come out,
28
61393
2468
Kada nastane dovoljan broj zvezda,
01:19
they create a galaxy.
29
63861
1798
one stvaraju galaksiju.
01:21
This one happens to be a particularly important galaxy,
30
65659
3434
Ova ovde je jedna posebno značajna galaksija,
01:24
because you are here.
31
69093
2216
jer je naša.
01:27
(Laughter)
32
71309
1167
(Smeh)
01:28
And as you take a close-up of this galaxy,
33
72476
1651
I ako pažljivo pogledate ovu galaksiju,
01:30
you find a relatively normal,
34
74127
2065
naći ćete prilično uobičajenu,
01:32
not particularly interesting star.
35
76192
2368
ne posebno interesantnu zvezdu.
01:34
By the way, you're now about two-thirds of the way into this story.
36
78560
4015
Inače, sada ste na dve trećine puta u ovoj priči.
01:38
So this star doesn't even appear
37
82575
2182
Znači ova zvezda se ne pojavljuje
01:40
until about two-thirds of the way into this story.
38
84757
2951
do otprilike dve trećine ove priče.
01:43
And then what happens
39
87708
1078
I potom se dešava to
01:44
is there's enough dust left over
40
88786
1406
da je preostalo dovoljno prašine
01:46
that it doesn't ignite into a star,
41
90192
1966
da se ona ne usija do zvezde,
01:48
it becomes a planet.
42
92158
2000
već postaje planeta.
01:50
And this is about a little over four billion years ago.
43
94158
4825
To se dešava pre nešto više od četiri milijarde godina.
01:54
And soon thereafter
44
98983
1433
I ubrzo nakon toga
01:56
there's enough material left over
45
100416
1917
postoji dovoljno materijala
01:58
that you get a primordial soup,
46
102333
4563
da se formira praiskonska supa
02:02
and that creates life.
47
106896
1764
i nastaje život.
02:04
And life starts to expand and expand and expand,
48
108660
3881
I život počinje da se širi i širi,
02:08
until it goes kaput.
49
112541
1751
dok ne ode bestraga.
02:10
(Laughter)
50
114292
3488
(Smeh)
02:13
Now the really strange thing
51
117780
1430
E sad, vrlo čudna stvar
02:15
is life goes kaput, not once, not twice,
52
119210
2906
jeste da je život otišao bestraga,
ne jednom, ne dva puta,
ne jednom, ne dva puta,
02:18
but five times.
53
122116
2216
već pet puta.
02:20
So almost all life on Earth
54
124332
2102
Tako je život na Zemlji
02:22
is wiped out about five times.
55
126434
2464
pet puta u potpunosti zbrisan.
02:24
And as you're thinking about that,
56
128898
1552
I dok razmišljate o tome,
02:26
what happens is you get more and more complexity,
57
130450
2432
dobijate sve veću i veću složenost,
02:28
more and more stuff
58
132882
1234
više i više stvari
02:30
to build new things with.
59
134116
4118
kojima pravite nove stvari.
02:34
And we don't appear
60
138234
1270
I mi se ne pojavljujemo
02:35
until about 99.96 percent of the time into this story,
61
139504
5648
do otprilike 99,96 procenata ove priče,
02:41
just to put ourselves and our ancestors in perspective.
62
145152
3930
taman toliko da uporedimo nas i naše pretke sa pričom.
02:44
So within that context, there's two theories of the case
63
149082
3459
I u tom kontekstu, postoje dve teorije
02:48
as to why we're all here.
64
152541
1689
o tome zašto smo mi svi ovde.
02:50
The first theory of the case
65
154230
1589
Prva teorija
02:51
is that's all she wrote.
66
155819
3409
jeste da je to to.
02:55
Under that theory,
67
159228
1359
Prema toj teoriji,
02:56
we are the be-all and end-all
68
160587
1836
mi smo sve što jeste i kraj svega
02:58
of all creation.
69
162423
1733
što postoji.
03:00
And the reason for trillions of galaxies,
70
164156
2884
I razlog biliona galaksija,
03:02
sextillions of planets,
71
167040
2013
triliona planeta,
03:04
is to create something that looks like that
72
169053
4710
jeste da bi stvorili nešto što izgleda ovako
03:09
and something that looks like that.
73
173763
3633
i nešto što izgleda ovako.
03:13
And that's the purpose of the universe;
74
177396
1541
I to je svrha univerzuma;
03:14
and then it flat-lines,
75
178937
1284
i kada dođe do kraja,
03:16
it doesn't get any better.
76
180221
1311
neće postati ništa bolje.
03:17
(Laughter)
77
181532
4480
(Smeh)
03:21
The only question you might want to ask yourself is,
78
186012
2819
Jedino pitanje koje možete sebi postaviti je,
03:24
could that be just mildly arrogant?
79
188831
5235
da to nije možda malo arogantno?
03:29
And if it is --
80
194066
1741
I ako jeste --
03:31
and particularly given the fact that we came very close to extinction.
81
195807
5382
posebno jer znamo da smo došli jako blizu istrebljenju.
03:37
There were only about 2,000 of our species left.
82
201189
3367
Bilo je svega oko 2000 vrsta preostalo.
03:40
A few more weeks without rain,
83
204556
2083
Još par nedelja bez kiše,
03:42
we would have never seen any of these.
84
206639
3084
i nikada ne bismo videli nikog od ovih.
03:45
(Laughter)
85
209723
6699
(Smeh)
03:52
(Applause)
86
216422
4634
(Aplauz)
03:56
So maybe you have to think about a second theory
87
221056
2966
Tako bi možda trebalo da razmotrite drugu teoriju
03:59
if the first one isn't good enough.
88
224022
2917
ako prva nije dovoljno dobra.
04:02
Second theory is: Could we upgrade?
89
226939
1784
Druga teorija je: možemo li se poboljšati?
04:04
(Laughter)
90
228723
2899
(Smeh)
04:07
Well, why would one ask a question like that?
91
231622
3234
Zašto bi neko postavio takvo pitanje?
04:10
Because there have been at least 29 upgrades so far
92
234856
2465
Jer do sada je bilo najmanje 29 poboljšanja
04:13
of humanoids.
93
237321
2036
humanoida.
04:15
So it turns out that we have upgraded.
94
239357
2850
Ispostavlja se da se jesmo poboljšali.
04:18
We've upgraded time and again and again.
95
242207
1915
Poboljšavamo se iznova i iznova.
04:20
And it turns out that we keep discovering upgrades.
96
244122
2916
I ispostavlja se da nastavljamo sa
otkrivanjem mogućih poboljšanja.
otkrivanjem mogućih poboljšanja.
04:22
We found this one last year.
97
247038
2184
Pronašli smo ovu prošle godine.
04:25
We found another one last month.
98
249222
2617
Pronašli smo drugu prošlog meseca.
04:27
And as you're thinking about this,
99
251839
2199
I dok razlišljate o ovome,
04:29
you might also ask the question:
100
254038
2103
možete postaviti pitanje:
04:32
So why a single human species?
101
256141
3097
zašto postoji jedna ljudska vrsta?
04:35
Wouldn't it be really odd
102
259238
1834
Zar ne bi bilo čudno
04:36
if you went to Africa and Asia and Antarctica
103
261072
3784
kad bi otišli do Afrike, Azije ili Antarktika
04:40
and found exactly the same bird --
104
264856
2619
i pronašli identičnu pticu --
04:43
particularly given that we co-existed at the same time
105
267475
3792
posebno jer znamo da smo postojali uporedo
04:47
with at least eight other versions of humanoid
106
271267
2786
sa još najmanje osam različitih vrsta humanoida
04:49
at the same time on this planet?
107
274053
2468
u isto vreme na ovoj planeti?
04:52
So the normal state of affairs
108
276521
1879
Normalno stanje stvari
04:54
is not to have just a Homo sapiens;
109
278400
2510
nije da imamo samo Homo sapiensa;
04:56
the normal state of affairs
110
280910
1021
normalno stanje stvari je
04:57
is to have various versions of humans walking around.
111
281931
3829
da imamo različite varijante humanoida naokolo.
05:01
And if that is the normal state of affairs,
112
285760
2817
I ako je to normalno stanje stvari,
05:04
then you might ask yourself,
113
288577
2368
možete se zapitati,
05:06
all right, so if we want to create something else,
114
290945
2065
u redu, ako želimo da stvorimo nešto drugo,
05:08
how big does a mutation have to be?
115
293010
2868
koliko velika bi mutacija morala da bude?
05:11
Well Svante Paabo has the answer.
116
295878
2632
Pa Svante Pabo ima odgovor.
05:14
The difference between humans and Neanderthal
117
298510
2800
Razlika između ljudi i Neandertalaca
05:17
is 0.004 percent of gene code.
118
301310
3299
je 0,004 procenta genetskog koda.
05:20
That's how big the difference is
119
304609
1700
Toliko je velika razlika
05:22
one species to another.
120
306309
2217
između dve vrste.
05:24
This explains most contemporary political debates.
121
308526
4400
Ovo objašnjava najskorije političke debate.
05:28
(Laughter)
122
312926
1935
(Smeh)
05:30
But as you're thinking about this,
123
314861
3211
Ali dok razmišljate o ovome,
05:33
one of the interesting things
124
318072
1358
jedna od zanimljivih stvari
05:35
is how small these mutations are and where they take place.
125
319430
3397
je koliko su te mutacije male i gde se dešavaju.
05:38
Difference human/Neanderthal
126
322827
1333
Razlika između ljudi i Neandertalaca
05:40
is sperm and testis,
127
324160
1733
je u spermi i testisima,
05:41
smell and skin.
128
325893
1368
mirisu i koži.
05:43
And those are the specific genes
129
327261
1486
A to su specifični geni
05:44
that differ from one to the other.
130
328747
2680
koji se međusobno razlikuju.
05:47
So very small changes can have a big impact.
131
331427
3101
Tako da veoma male promene
dovode do velikih posledica.
dovode do velikih posledica.
05:50
And as you're thinking about this,
132
334528
1632
I dok razmišljate o tome,
05:52
we're continuing to mutate.
133
336160
2516
mi nastavljamo da mutiramo.
05:54
So about 10,000 years ago by the Black Sea,
134
338676
2901
Pre 10 000 godina pored Crnog Mora,
05:57
we had one mutation in one gene
135
341577
2060
desila se mutacija u jednom genu
05:59
which led to blue eyes.
136
343637
2556
koja je dovela do plavih očiju.
06:02
And this is continuing and continuing and continuing.
137
346193
3884
I to nastavlja da se dešava.
06:05
And as it continues,
138
350077
1434
I dok se to nastavlja,
06:07
one of the things that's going to happen this year
139
351511
1765
jedna od stvari koja će se desiti ove godine
06:09
is we're going to discover the first 10,000 human genomes,
140
353276
3333
je to da ćemo otkriti prvih 10 000 ljudskih genoma,
06:12
because it's gotten cheap enough to do the gene sequencing.
141
356609
3269
jer je sekvencioniranje gena postalo dovoljno jeftino.
06:15
And when we find these,
142
359878
1588
A kada to otkrijemo,
06:17
we may find differences.
143
361466
2494
moći ćemo da pronađemo razlike.
06:19
And by the way, this is not a debate that we're ready for,
144
363960
3076
I inače, ovo nije debata za koju smo još spremni,
06:22
because we have really misused the science in this.
145
367036
3376
jer smo zloupotrebili nauku za ovo.
06:26
In the 1920s, we thought there were major differences between people.
146
370412
3683
1920. smatrali smo da postoje
ogromne razlike među ljudima.
ogromne razlike među ljudima.
06:29
That was partly based on Francis Galton's work.
147
374095
3798
To je delom bila posledica rada Frensisa Galtona.
06:33
He was Darwin's cousin.
148
377893
2136
On je bio Darvinov rođak.
06:35
But the U.S., the Carnegie Institute,
149
380029
2315
Ali SAD, Karnegi Institut,
06:38
Stanford, American Neurological Association
150
382344
2582
Stanford, Američka neurološka asocijacija
06:40
took this really far.
151
384926
1868
otišli su u ovome jako daleko.
06:42
That got exported and was really misused.
152
386794
3599
Ideja je izvezena i veoma zloupotrebljena.
06:46
In fact, it led to some absolutely horrendous
153
390393
2685
Zapravo, dovela je do nekih potpuno užasnih
06:48
treatment of human beings.
154
393078
2013
ophođenja prema ljudskim bićima.
06:50
So since the 1940s, we've been saying there are no differences,
155
395091
2594
I od 1940. tvrdimo da ne postoje razlike,
06:53
we're all identical.
156
397685
1320
da smo svi identični.
06:54
We're going to know at year end if that is true.
157
399005
3277
Do kraja godine znaćemo da li je to tačno.
06:58
And as we think about that,
158
402282
1732
I kako razmišljamo o tome,
06:59
we're actually beginning to find things
159
404014
1518
počinjemo da nalazimo stvari
07:01
like, do you have an ACE gene?
160
405532
3466
kao, da li imate ACE gen?
07:04
Why would that matter?
161
408998
1978
Zašto bi to bilo važno?
07:06
Because nobody's ever climbed an 8,000-meter peak without oxygen
162
410976
4038
Jer niko ne može da se popne na visinu
od 8 000 metara bez kiseonika
od 8 000 metara bez kiseonika
07:10
that doesn't have an ACE gene.
163
415014
2750
ukoliko nema ACE gen.
07:13
And if you want to get more specific,
164
417764
1869
I ako želite da budete još precizniji,
07:15
how about a 577R genotype?
165
419633
3015
šta je sa 577R genotipom?
07:18
Well it turns out that every male Olympic power athelete ever tested
166
422648
4700
Ispostavilo se da svaki muški olimpijski atletičar
koji je ikada testiran
koji je ikada testiran
07:23
carries at least one of these variants.
167
427348
3250
ima bar jednu od ovih varijanti.
07:26
If that is true,
168
430598
1654
Ako je to tačno,
07:28
it leads to some very complicated questions
169
432252
2158
to vodi do nekih veoma komplikovanih pitanja
07:30
for the London Olympics.
170
434410
1801
za londonsku Olimpijadu.
07:32
Three options:
171
436211
1519
Tri mogućnosti:
07:33
Do you want the Olympics to be a showcase
172
437730
2832
želite li da Olimpijada bude izložba
07:36
for really hardworking mutants?
173
440562
2700
izuzetno vrednih mutanata?
07:39
(Laughter)
174
443262
1733
(Smeh)
07:40
Option number two:
175
444995
2735
Mogućnost broj dva:
07:43
Why don't we play it like golf or sailing?
176
447730
3398
zašto se ne bi takmičili kao u golfu ili jedrenju?
07:47
Because you have one and you don't have one,
177
451128
2474
Zato što ga ti imaš, a ti ga nemaš,
07:49
I'll give you a tenth of a second head start.
178
453602
3995
daću ti prednost od desetine sekunde na startu.
07:53
Version number three:
179
457597
1071
Mogućnost broj tri:
07:54
Because this is a naturally occurring gene
180
458668
2069
zato što je to gen koji se javlja prirodno,
07:56
and you've got it and you didn't pick the right parents,
181
460737
2782
ti ga imaš, a ti si izabrao pogrešne roditelje,
07:59
you get the right to upgrade.
182
463519
3949
ti imaš pravo da se poboljšaš.
08:03
Three different options.
183
467468
1751
Tri različite mogućnosti.
08:05
If these differences are the difference
184
469219
1622
Ukoliko su te razlike zapravo razlike
08:06
between an Olympic medal and a non-Olympic medal.
185
470841
3378
između osvajača olimpijskih medalja i onih koji to nisu.
08:10
And it turns out that as we discover these things,
186
474219
2834
I ispostavlja se da, kako otkrivamo ove stvari,
08:12
we human beings really like to change
187
477053
3335
mi ljudi zaista uživamo da menjamo
08:16
how we look, how we act,
188
480388
1694
način na koji izgledamo, kako se ponašamo,
08:17
what our bodies do.
189
482082
1594
šta naša tela mogu da urade.
08:19
And we had about 10.2 million plastic surgeries in the United States,
190
483676
4374
Imali smo oko 10,2 miliona plastičnih operacija u Americi,
08:23
except that with the technologies that are coming online today,
191
488050
3317
ne računajući one sa tehnologijama
koje se pojavljuju danas,
koje se pojavljuju danas,
08:27
today's corrections, deletions,
192
491367
2701
današnje korekcije, brisanja,
08:29
augmentations and enhancements
193
494068
1919
uvećanja i poboljšanja
08:31
are going to seem like child's play.
194
495987
2913
činiće se kao dečja igra.
08:34
You already saw the work by Tony Atala on TED,
195
498900
3701
Već ste na TED-u videli rad Tonija Atale,
08:38
but this ability to start filling
196
502601
3567
ali ova sposobnost za punjenje
08:42
things like inkjet cartridges with cells
197
506168
2933
stvari poput kertridža za mastilo ćelijama
08:45
are allowing us to print skin, organs
198
509101
4674
omogućava nam da štampamo kožu, organe
08:49
and a whole series of other body parts.
199
513775
2750
i čitav niz drugih delova tela.
08:52
And as these technologies go forward,
200
516525
1884
I kako se ove tehnologije razvijaju,
08:54
you keep seeing this, you keep seeing this, you keep seeing things --
201
518409
3784
vi nastavljate da viđate ovo i ovo,
nastavljate da viđate stvari --
nastavljate da viđate stvari --
08:58
2000, human genome sequence --
202
522193
2774
2000, ljudska genetska sekvenca --
09:00
and it seems like nothing's happening,
203
524967
3782
i čini se kao da se ništa ne dešava,
09:04
until it does.
204
528749
3112
dok se ne desi.
09:07
And we may just be in some of these weeks.
205
531861
3524
I možda smo upravo u jednoj od tih sedmica.
09:11
And as you're thinking about
206
535385
1599
I dok razmišljate o
09:12
these two guys sequencing a human genome in 2000
207
536984
3451
ovoj dvojici koji sekvencioniraju ljudski genom 2000.
09:16
and the Public Project sequencing the human genome in 2000,
208
540435
3553
i o javnom projektu sekvencioniranja
ljudskog genoma 2000.,
ljudskog genoma 2000.,
09:19
then you don't hear a lot,
209
543988
3164
onda niste čuli mnogo,
09:23
until you hear about an experiment last year in China,
210
547152
3984
dok ne saznate za prošlogodišnji eksperiment u Kini,
09:27
where they take skin cells from this mouse,
211
551136
4017
gde uzimaju ćelije kože ovog miša,
09:31
put four chemicals on it,
212
555153
1733
dodaju četiri hemikalije,
09:32
turn those skin cells into stem cells,
213
556886
3566
pretvore ih u matične ćelije,
09:36
let the stem cells grow
214
560452
1465
puste ih da rastu
09:37
and create a full copy of that mouse.
215
561917
3087
i stvore potpunu kopiju prvobitnog miša.
09:40
That's a big deal.
216
565004
3247
To je velika stvar.
09:44
Because in essence
217
568251
1016
Jer u suštini
09:45
what it means is you can take a cell,
218
569267
2148
to znači da možete uzeti ćeliju,
09:47
which is a pluripotent stem cell,
219
571415
2286
koja je u suštini pluripotentna matična ćelija,
09:49
which is like a skier at the top of a mountain,
220
573701
2684
koja je poput skijaša na vrhu planine,
09:52
and those two skiers become two pluripotent stem cells,
221
576385
3817
i ova dva skijaša postaju dve pluripotentne matične ćelije,
09:56
four, eight, 16,
222
580202
1782
četiri, osam, 16,
09:57
and then it gets so crowded
223
581984
1668
i potom nastane takva gužva
09:59
after 16 divisions
224
583652
1800
da posle 16 deljenja
10:01
that those cells have to differentiate.
225
585452
2502
moraju da se diferenciraju.
10:03
So they go down one side of the mountain,
226
587954
1433
I tako idu niz jednu stranu planine,
10:05
they go down another.
227
589387
1233
i niz drugu.
10:06
And as they pick that,
228
590620
1534
I kada to odaberu,
10:08
these become bone,
229
592154
2250
ove postaju kosti,
10:10
and then they pick another road and these become platelets,
230
594404
2932
onda odaberu drugi put i postaju trombociti,
10:13
and these become macrophages,
231
597336
2117
onda ove postaju makrofage,
10:15
and these become T cells.
232
599453
1267
i od ovih nastaju T ćelije.
10:16
But it's really hard, once you ski down,
233
600720
1952
Ali veoma je teško, kada se jednom spustite,
10:18
to get back up.
234
602672
1523
da se ponovo vratite gore.
10:20
Unless, of course, if you have a ski lift.
235
604195
5412
Osim, naravno, ako imate žičaru.
10:25
And what those four chemicals do
236
609607
2449
I ono što ova četiri elementa rade
10:27
is they take any cell
237
612056
2069
jeste da uzimaju bilo koju ćeliju
10:30
and take it way back up the mountain
238
614125
1932
i vraćaju je na vrh planine
10:31
so it can become any body part.
239
616057
2033
tako da ona može postati bilo koji deo tela.
10:33
And as you think of that,
240
618090
1728
I dok razmišljate o tome,
10:35
what it means is potentially
241
619818
1980
to može značiti
10:37
you can rebuild a full copy
242
621798
2175
da možete rekonstruisati čitavu kopiju
10:39
of any organism
243
623973
1867
bilo kog organizma
10:41
out of any one of its cells.
244
625840
2586
od bilo koje njegove ćelije.
10:44
That turns out to be a big deal
245
628426
2531
To se ispostavilo da je velika stvar
10:46
because now you can take, not just mouse cells,
246
630957
2566
jer sada možete uzeti, ne samo ćeliju miša,
10:49
but you can human skin cells
247
633523
2318
već ćeliju ljudske kože
10:51
and turn them into human stem cells.
248
635841
3650
i pretvoriti je u ljudsku matičnu ćeliju.
10:55
And then what they did in October
249
639491
3198
Ono što su uradili u oktobru
10:58
is they took skin cells, turned them into stem cells
250
642689
3400
jeste da su uzeli ćeliju kože, pretvorili je u matičnu ćeliju
11:01
and began to turn them into liver cells.
251
646089
3673
i počeli da ih pretvaraju u ćelije jetre.
11:05
So in theory,
252
649762
1044
Tako u teoriji,
11:06
you could grow any organ from any one of your cells.
253
650806
5184
možete uzgajiti bilo koji organ od bilo koje vaše ćelije.
11:11
Here's a second experiment:
254
655990
1718
Evo drugog eksperimenta:
11:13
If you could photocopy your body,
255
657708
3133
kada biste fotokopirali vaše telo,
11:16
maybe you also want to take your mind.
256
660841
3052
možda biste takođe želeli da uzmete i svoju svest.
11:19
And one of the things you saw at TED
257
663893
1565
Jedna od stvari koju ste videli na TED-u
11:21
about a year and a half ago
258
665458
1250
pre otprilike godinu ipo dana
11:22
was this guy.
259
666708
1435
je ovaj momak.
11:24
And he gave a wonderful technical talk.
260
668143
2600
I on je imao predivan tehnički govor.
11:26
He's a professor at MIT.
261
670743
1599
On je profesor na MIT-u.
11:28
But in essence what he said
262
672342
1916
Ali suština onoga što je on rekao
11:30
is you can take retroviruses,
263
674258
1700
je da možete uzeti retroviruse,
11:31
which get inside brain cells of mice.
264
675958
2800
koji se ubace u moždane ćelije miša.
11:34
You can tag them with proteins
265
678758
2440
Možete ih označiti proteinima
11:37
that light up when you light them.
266
681198
2094
koji zasvetle kada ih upalite.
11:39
And you can map the exact pathways
267
683292
3716
I možete mapirati tačne puteve
11:42
when a mouse sees, feels, touches,
268
687008
3483
kada miš vidi, oseća, dodiruje,
11:46
remembers, loves.
269
690491
2183
pamti, voli,
11:48
And then you can take a fiber optic cable
270
692674
2373
I potom možete uzeti kabl sa optičkim vlaknima
11:50
and light up some of the same things.
271
695047
3819
i upaliti neke od njih.
11:54
And by the way, as you do this,
272
698866
1832
I uzgred, kako to radite,
11:56
you can image it in two colors,
273
700698
2017
možete označiti sa dve boje,
11:58
which means you can download this information
274
702715
2399
što znači da možete preuzeti tu informaciju
12:01
as binary code directly into a computer.
275
705114
4740
u vidu binarnog koda direktno u vaš računar.
12:05
So what's the bottom line on that?
276
709854
2473
I šta je konačna svrha toga?
12:08
Well it's not completely inconceivable
277
712327
2200
Pa, nije potpuno nezamislivo
12:10
that someday you'll be able to download your own memories,
278
714527
4495
da ćete jednoga dana biti u mogućnosti da preuzimate sopstvene uspomene,
12:14
maybe into a new body.
279
719022
2387
možda u novo telo.
12:17
And maybe you can upload other people's memories as well.
280
721409
5085
A možda ćete takođe moći i da učitate
uspomene drugih ljudi.
uspomene drugih ljudi.
12:22
And this might have just one or two
281
726494
2514
I ovo bi moglo da ima samo jednu ili dve
12:24
small ethical, political, moral implications.
282
729008
3520
male etičke, političke, moralne posledice.
12:28
(Laughter)
283
732528
1531
(Smeh)
12:29
Just a thought.
284
734059
2991
To je samo ideja.
12:32
Here's the kind of questions
285
737050
1528
Evo pitanja
12:34
that are becoming interesting questions
286
738578
1980
koja postaju interesantna
12:36
for philosophers, for governing people,
287
740558
2484
filozofima, ljudima na vlasti,
12:38
for economists, for scientists.
288
743042
3366
ekonomistima, naučnicima.
12:42
Because these technologies are moving really quickly.
289
746408
3284
Jer se ove tehnologije razvijaju jako brzo.
12:45
And as you think about it,
290
749692
1500
I dok razmišljate o tome,
12:47
let me close with an example of the brain.
291
751192
3082
završiću sa primerom o mozgu.
12:50
The first place where you would expect
292
754274
1683
Prvo mesto na kom biste očekivali
12:51
to see enormous evolutionary pressure today,
293
755957
3051
da vidite ogromni evolutivni pritisak danas,
12:54
both because of the inputs,
294
759008
2265
zbog velike količine
12:57
which are becoming massive,
295
761273
1552
ulaznih informacija,
12:58
and because of the plasticity of the organ,
296
762825
1782
i zbog plastičnosti samog organa s druge strane,
13:00
is the brain.
297
764607
2534
jeste mozak.
13:03
Do we have any evidence that that is happening?
298
767141
3318
Imamo li ikakav dokaz da se to dešava?
13:06
Well let's take a look at something like autism incidence per thousand.
299
770459
4731
Pogledajmo pojavu autizma na 1000 ljudi.
13:11
Here's what it looks like in 2000.
300
775190
2502
Evo kako je to izgledalo 2000.
13:13
Here's what it looks like in 2002,
301
777692
2082
Evo kako je izgledalo 2002.,
13:15
2006, 2008.
302
779774
4618
2006., 2008.
13:20
Here's the increase in less than a decade.
303
784392
4082
Vidimo povećanje za manje od decenije.
13:24
And we still don't know why this is happening.
304
788474
4417
Ali i dalje ne znamo zašto se to dešava.
13:28
What we do know is, potentially,
305
792891
2485
Ono što znamo jeste da, verovatno,
13:31
the brain is reacting in
306
795376
2032
mozak reaguje
13:33
a hyperactive, hyper-plastic way,
307
797408
2134
na hiperaktivan, hiper-plastičan način
13:35
and creating individuals that are like this.
308
799542
2950
i stvara pojedince koji su poput ovoga.
13:38
And this is only one of the conditions that's out there.
309
802492
2757
I ovo je samo jedan od uslova koji su tamo negde.
13:41
You've also got people with who are extraordinarily smart,
310
805249
3540
Imate takođe i ljude koji su natprosečno pametni,
13:44
people who can remember everything they've seen in their lives,
311
808789
2397
ljude koji se mogu setiti svega što su videli u svom životu,
13:47
people who've got synesthesia,
312
811186
1385
ljude koji imaju sinesteziju,
13:48
people who've got schizophrenia.
313
812571
1331
ljude koji imaju šizofreniju.
13:49
You've got all kinds of stuff going on out there,
314
813902
2534
Svakakve stvari se dešavaju tamo,
13:52
and we still don't understand
315
816436
1218
a mi i dalje ne razumemo
13:53
how and why this is happening.
316
817654
2233
kako i zašto se dešavaju.
13:55
But one question you might want to ask is,
317
819887
2682
Ali možete se zapitati
13:58
are we seeing a rapid evolution of the brain
318
822569
2628
da li mi to vidimo ubrzanu evoluciju mozga
14:01
and of how we process data?
319
825197
1825
i toga kako obrađujemo podatke?
14:02
Because when you think of how much data's coming into our brains,
320
827022
3063
Jer kad pomislite koliko podataka dolazi u naš mozak,
14:05
we're trying to take in as much data in a day
321
830085
3484
pokušavamo da primimo toliko podataka na dan
14:09
as people used to take in in a lifetime.
322
833569
2551
koliko su ljudi primali za ceo život.
14:12
And as you're thinking about this,
323
836120
2632
I dok razmišljate o ovome,
14:14
there's four theories as to why this might be going on,
324
838752
2342
postoje četiri teorije zbog čega se to dešava,
14:16
plus a whole series of others.
325
841094
1327
plus čitava serija drugih.
14:18
I don't have a good answer.
326
842421
1649
Nemam dobar odgovor.
14:19
There really needs to be more research on this.
327
844070
3616
Zaista bi moralo da postoji još istraživanja o ovome.
14:23
One option is the fast food fetish.
328
847686
2235
Jedna opcija je strast ka brzoj hrani.
14:25
There's beginning to be some evidence
329
849921
2449
Počinjemo da dobijamo neke podatke
14:28
that obesity and diet
330
852370
2251
da gojaznost i dijeta
14:30
have something to do
331
854621
1631
imaju neke veze
14:32
with gene modifications,
332
856252
1768
sa modifikacijom gena,
14:33
which may or may not have an impact
333
858020
2350
koji mogu ili ne moraju imati uticaj
14:36
on how the brain of an infant works.
334
860370
3517
na to kako mozak novorođenčeta radi.
14:39
A second option is the sexy geek option.
335
863887
3955
Druga opcija je opcija seksi štrebera.
14:43
These conditions are highly rare.
336
867842
4243
Ovi uslovi su izuzetno retki.
14:47
(Laughter)
337
872085
3038
(Smeh)
14:51
(Applause)
338
875123
5300
(Aplauz)
14:56
But what's beginning to happen
339
880423
1633
Ali ono što počinje da se dešava
14:57
is because these geeks are all getting together,
340
882056
2534
jeste da se ovi štreberi približavaju jedni drugima,
15:00
because they are highly qualified for computer programming
341
884590
2897
jer su visoko kvalifikovani za kompjutersko programiranje
15:03
and it is highly remunerated,
342
887487
2318
što je veoma isplativo,
15:05
as well as other very detail-oriented tasks,
343
889805
3150
kao i drugi poslovi koji su orjentisani na detalje,
15:08
that they are concentrating geographically
344
892955
2449
i koncentrišu se geografski
15:11
and finding like-minded mates.
345
895404
2967
i pronalaze slične partnere.
15:14
So this is the assortative mating hypothesis
346
898371
3568
Ovo je hipoteza udruživanja sličnih
15:17
of these genes reinforcing one another
347
901939
2700
prema kojoj geni podržavaju jedni druge
15:20
in these structures.
348
904639
2117
u ovim strukturama.
15:22
The third, is this too much information?
349
906756
2950
Treće, da li je ovo previše informacija?
15:25
We're trying to process so much stuff
350
909706
1497
Pokušavamo da obradimo toliko stvari
15:27
that some people get synesthetic
351
911203
2352
da neki ljudi dobijaju sinesteziju
15:29
and just have huge pipes that remember everything.
352
913555
2600
i imaju ogromne cevi kako bi zapamtili sve.
15:32
Other people get hyper-sensitive to the amount of information.
353
916155
2669
Drugi ljudi postaju preosetljivi na toliku količinu informacija.
15:34
Other people react with various psychological conditions
354
918824
3982
Drugi ljudi reaguju različitim psihološkim stanjima
15:38
or reactions to this information.
355
922806
1632
ili reakcijama na ove informacije.
15:40
Or maybe it's chemicals.
356
924438
2702
Ili je to možda hemijski.
15:43
But when you see an increase
357
927140
1765
Ali kada vidite uvećanje
15:44
of that order of magnitude in a condition,
358
928905
2351
te veličine kod nekih stanja
15:47
either you're not measuring it right
359
931256
1565
to znači da ih ili ne merite dobro
15:48
or there's something going on very quickly,
360
932821
2518
ili da se nešto dešava vrlo brzo
15:51
and it may be evolution in real time.
361
935339
4032
i to bi mogla biti evolucija u stvarnom vremenu.
15:55
Here's the bottom line.
362
939371
2503
Evo zaključka.
15:57
What I think we are doing
363
941874
2181
Ono šta ja mislim da se dešava
15:59
is we're transitioning as a species.
364
944055
1716
jeste da se menjamo kao vrsta.
16:01
And I didn't think this when Steve Gullans and I started writing together.
365
945771
5484
I nisam mislio ovako kada smo Stiv Galans i ja
počeli da radimo zajedno.
počeli da radimo zajedno.
16:07
I think we're transitioning into Homo evolutis
366
951255
2451
Mislim da se menjamo u Homo Evolutis
16:09
that, for better or worse,
367
953706
1399
koji, u dobru i zlu,
16:11
is not just a hominid that's conscious of his or her environment,
368
955105
4182
nije samo humanoid koji je svestan sebe u okruženju,
16:15
it's a hominid that's beginning to directly and deliberately
369
959287
3219
to je humanoid koji počinje da direktno i namerno
16:18
control the evolution of its own species,
370
962506
3198
kontroliše evoluciju sopstvene vrste,
16:21
of bacteria, of plants, of animals.
371
965704
3834
bakterija, biljaka, životinja.
16:25
And I think that's such an order of magnitude change
372
969538
2835
I mislim da je to promena takvih razmera
16:28
that your grandkids or your great-grandkids
373
972373
3103
da bi vaši unuci i vaši praunuci
16:31
may be a species very different from you.
374
975476
3045
mogli biti vrlo različita vrsta od vas.
16:34
Thank you very much.
375
978521
1586
Hvala vam puno.
16:36
(Applause)
376
980107
5331
(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Juan Enriquez - FuturistJuan Enriquez thinks and writes about the profound changes that genomics and other life sciences will bring in business, technology, politics and society.
Why you should listen
A broad thinker who studies the intersections of these fields, Enriquez has a talent for bridging disciplines to build a coherent look ahead. He is the managing director of Excel Venture Management, a life sciences VC firm. He recently published (with Steve Gullans) Evolving Ourselves: How Unnatural Selection and Nonrandom Mutation Are Shaping Life on Earth. The book describes a world where humans increasingly shape their environment, themselves and other species.
Enriquez is a member of the board of Synthetic Genomics, which recently introduced the smallest synthetic living cell. Called “JCVI-syn 3.0,” it has 473 genes (about half the previous smallest cell). The organism would die if one of the genes is removed. In other words, this is the minimum genetic instruction set for a living organism.
Juan Enriquez | Speaker | TED.com