TED2015
Bill Gross: The single biggest reason why start-ups succeed
Bill Gross: Jedini i najveći razlog zašto startup tvrtke uspijevaju
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Bill Gross je pokrenuo mnogo startup tvrki i inkubirao mnogo drugih - postao je znatiželjan zašto neke uspijevaju, a neke propadnu. Prema tome, prikupio je podatke stotina tvrtki, vlastitih i tuđih, i rangirao svaku tvrtku prema pet ključnih čimbenika. Pronašao je da se jedan čimbenik izdvaja od ostalih - iznenadio je i njega samog.
Bill Gross - Idea guy
Bill Gross founded Idealab, an incubator of new inventions, ideas and businesses. Full bio
Bill Gross founded Idealab, an incubator of new inventions, ideas and businesses. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
I'm really excited to share with you
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Zaista sam uzbuđen podijeliti s vama
00:14
some findings that really surprise me
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pojedine pronalaske koji su me iznenadili
00:17
about what makes companies
succeed the most,
succeed the most,
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o tome što čini da tvrtke najviše uspiju,
00:20
what factors actually matter the most
for startup success.
for startup success.
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koji čimbenici utječu najviše na
uspjeh startup tvrtki.
uspjeh startup tvrtki.
00:25
I believe that the startup organization
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Vjerujem da su startup organizacije
00:27
is one of the greatest forms
to make the world a better place.
to make the world a better place.
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neke od najboljih oblika koji će
učiniti svijet boljim mjestom.
učiniti svijet boljim mjestom.
00:31
If you take a group of people
with the right equity incentives
with the right equity incentives
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Ako uzmete grupu ljudi
sa pravim poticajima pravičnosti
sa pravim poticajima pravičnosti
00:34
and organize them in a startup,
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i organizirate ih u startup,
00:36
you can unlock human potential
in a way never before possible.
in a way never before possible.
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možete otključati ljudski potencijal
na načine koji su dosad bili nemogući.
na načine koji su dosad bili nemogući.
00:40
You get them to achieve
unbelievable things.
unbelievable things.
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Možete ih potaknuti da postignu
nevjerojatne stvari.
nevjerojatne stvari.
00:43
But if the startup
organization is so great,
organization is so great,
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Ali ako su startup organizacije
tako sjajne,
tako sjajne,
00:45
why do so many fail?
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zašto ih toliko ne uspije?
00:47
That's what I wanted to find out.
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To sam želio saznati.
00:48
I wanted to find out what
actually matters most
actually matters most
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Želi sam saznati što najviše
utječe
utječe
00:51
for startup success.
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za uspjeh startup tvrtke.
00:52
And I wanted to try
to be systematic about it,
to be systematic about it,
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I želio sam biti sustavan u vezi toga,
00:54
avoid some of my instincts
and maybe misperceptions I have
and maybe misperceptions I have
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izbjeći svoje instinkte i
možda pogrešne procjene koje imam
možda pogrešne procjene koje imam
00:57
from so many companies
I've seen over the years.
I've seen over the years.
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od toliko tvrtki koje sam
vidio tijekom godina.
vidio tijekom godina.
01:00
I wanted to know this
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Želio sam znati ovo
01:01
because I've been starting businesses
since I was 12 years old
since I was 12 years old
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zato što sam pokretao poslove od
svoje dvanaeste godine
svoje dvanaeste godine
01:04
when I sold candy at the bus stop
in junior high school,
in junior high school,
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kad sam prodao slatkiš na busnoj stanici
u osnovnoj školi,
u osnovnoj školi,
01:07
to high school, when I made
solar energy devices,
solar energy devices,
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pa u srednjoj školi, kad sam
napravio solarne uređaje,
napravio solarne uređaje,
01:09
to college, when I made loudspeakers.
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pa na fakultetu, kad sam pravio razglas.
01:11
And when I graduated from college,
I started software companies.
I started software companies.
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A kad sam diplomirao,
pokrenuo sam sotfverske tvrtke.
pokrenuo sam sotfverske tvrtke.
01:14
And 20 years ago,
I started Idealab,
I started Idealab,
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Prije 20 godina sam
pokrenuo Idealab,
pokrenuo Idealab,
01:16
and in the last 20 years,
we started more than 100 companies,
we started more than 100 companies,
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i posljednjih 20 godina
smo pokrenuli više od 100 tvrtki,
smo pokrenuli više od 100 tvrtki,
01:19
many successes, and many big failures.
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mnogo uspjeha, i mnogo velikih neuspjeha.
01:21
We learned a lot from those failures.
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Puno smo naučili iz tih neuspjeha.
01:23
So I tried to look across what factors
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Zato sam pokušao pronaći čimbenike
01:26
accounted the most for company
success and failure.
success and failure.
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koji utječu na uspjeh ili neuspjeh tvrtki.
01:29
So I looked at these five.
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Gledao sam ovih pet.
01:31
First, the idea.
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Prvo, ideja.
01:32
I used to think that
the idea was everything.
the idea was everything.
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Uvijek sam mislio da je sve u ideji.
01:34
I named my company Idealab
for how much I worship
for how much I worship
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Nazvao sam svoju tvrtku Idealab
zbog toga što obožavam
zbog toga što obožavam
01:36
the "aha!" moment when you first
come up with the idea.
come up with the idea.
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"Aha" trenutak kad prvi put dođete
na ideju.
na ideju.
01:39
But then over time,
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Ali s vremenom,
01:40
I came to think that maybe the team,
the execution, adaptability,
the execution, adaptability,
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sam počeo vjerovati da možda tim,
izvedba, prilagodba,
izvedba, prilagodba,
01:43
that mattered even more than the idea.
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znače mnogo više nego ideja.
01:46
I never thought I'd be quoting
boxer Mike Tyson on the TED stage,
boxer Mike Tyson on the TED stage,
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Nisam mislio da ću ikad citirati
boksača Mikea Tysona na TED pozornici,
boksača Mikea Tysona na TED pozornici,
01:50
but he once said,
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ali on je jednom rekao,
01:52
"Everybody has a plan, until they get
punched in the face." (Laughter)
punched in the face." (Laughter)
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"Svi imaju plan, dok ih netko ne
lupi usred face." (Smijeh)
lupi usred face." (Smijeh)
01:56
And I think that's so true
about business as well.
about business as well.
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Vjerujem da je ovo istinito
i u poslovnom svijetu.
i u poslovnom svijetu.
01:59
So much about a team's execution
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Tako da je izvedba tima većinom
02:02
is its ability to adapt to getting punched
in the face by the customer.
in the face by the customer.
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sposobnost da se prilagodi udarcu
potrošača posred lica.
potrošača posred lica.
02:05
The customer is the true reality.
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Potrošač je istinska stvarnost.
02:07
And that's why I came to think
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Zato sam pomislio da je
02:09
that the team maybe
was the most important thing.
was the most important thing.
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možda tim najbitnija stvar.
02:12
Then I started looking
at the business model.
at the business model.
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Onda sam počeo gledati
poslovne modele.
poslovne modele.
02:14
Does the company have a very clear path
generating customer revenues?
generating customer revenues?
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Ima li tvrtka vrlo jasan put
proizvodnje prihoda potrošača?
proizvodnje prihoda potrošača?
02:17
That started rising to the top
in my thinking
in my thinking
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To je potaknulo da pomislim
02:19
about maybe what mattered
most for success.
most for success.
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što je najbitnije za uspjeh.
02:21
Then I looked at the funding.
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Onda sam gledao financiranje.
02:23
Sometimes companies received
intense amounts of funding.
intense amounts of funding.
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Ponekad tvrtke dobiju
intezivne količine financija.
intezivne količine financija.
02:25
Maybe that's the most important thing?
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Možda je to najbitnija stvar?
02:27
And then of course,
the timing.
the timing.
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A onda naravno,
tajming.
tajming.
02:29
Is the idea way too early and
the world's not ready for it?
the world's not ready for it?
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Jel ideja uranila i
svijet nije spreman na nju?
svijet nije spreman na nju?
02:32
Is it early, as in, you're in advance
and you have to educate the world?
and you have to educate the world?
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Jel rano, kao da si napredan
i moraš educirati svijet?
i moraš educirati svijet?
02:35
Is it just right?
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Ili je u pravo vrijeme?
02:36
Or is it too late, and there's
already too many competitors?
already too many competitors?
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Ili je prekasno, i već ima previše
konkurencije?
konkurencije?
02:39
So I tried to look very carefully
at these five factors
at these five factors
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Pa sam pregledavao vrlo pažljivo
ovih pet čimbenika
ovih pet čimbenika
02:41
across many companies.
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unutar mnogo tvrtki.
02:42
And I looked across all 100
Idealab companies,
Idealab companies,
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Pogledao sam unutra svih 100
Idealab tvrtki,
Idealab tvrtki,
02:45
and 100 non-Idealab companies
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i 100 ne-Idealab tvrtki
02:46
to try and come up with
something scientific about it.
something scientific about it.
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da probam doći do nečeg
znanstvenog u vezi toga.
znanstvenog u vezi toga.
02:49
So first, on these Idealab companies,
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Prvo, kod Idealab tvrtki,
02:51
the top five companies --
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prvih pet tvrtki --
02:53
Citysearch, CarsDirect, GoTo,
NetZero, Tickets.com --
NetZero, Tickets.com --
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Citysearch, CarsDirect, GoTo,
NetZero, Tickets.com --
NetZero, Tickets.com --
02:57
those all became billion-dollar successes.
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sve su postigle uspjeh od milijardu dolara.
02:59
And the five companies on the bottom --
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I pet tvrtki na dnu --
03:01
Z.com, Insider Pages, MyLife,
Desktop Factory, Peoplelink --
Desktop Factory, Peoplelink --
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Z.com, Insider Pages, MyLife,
Desktop Factory, Peoplelink --
Desktop Factory, Peoplelink --
03:03
we all had high hopes for,
but didn't succeed.
but didn't succeed.
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nadali smo se, ali nisu uspjeli.
03:06
So I tried to rank across all
of those attributes
of those attributes
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Pa sam pokušao rangirati sve
atribute
atribute
03:09
how I felt those companies scored
on each of those dimensions.
on each of those dimensions.
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kako sam mislio da su tvrtke postigle
u svakoj od dimenzija.
u svakoj od dimenzija.
03:13
And then for non-Idealab companies,
I looked at wild successes,
I looked at wild successes,
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A za ne-Idealab tvrtke sam uzeo
divlje uspjehe,
divlje uspjehe,
03:16
like Airbnb and Instagram and Uber
and Youtube and LinkedIn.
and Youtube and LinkedIn.
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kao Airbnb i Instagram i Uber
i Youtube i Linkedin.
i Youtube i Linkedin.
03:20
And some failures:
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I neke neuspjele:
03:21
Webvan, Kozmo, Pets.com
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Webvan, Kozmo, Pets.com
03:23
Flooz and Friendster.
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Flooz i Friendster.
03:24
The bottom companies had intense funding,
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Tvrtke na dnu su imale velika ulaganja,
03:26
they even had business models
in some cases,
in some cases,
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neke su imale i poslovne modele,
03:28
but they didn't succeed.
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ali nisu uspjeli.
03:29
I tried to look at what factors
actually accounted the most
actually accounted the most
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Pokušao sam saznati koji
čimbenici najviše
čimbenici najviše
03:32
for success and failure across
all of these companies,
all of these companies,
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utječu na uspjeh i neuspjeh
kod svih ovih tvrtki,
kod svih ovih tvrtki,
03:35
and the results really surprised me.
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i rezultati su me iznenadili.
03:37
The number one thing was timing.
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Prva stvar je bio tajming.
03:39
Timing accounted for 42 percent
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Tajming je značio 42 posto
03:42
of the difference
between success and failure.
between success and failure.
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razlike između uspjeha
i neuspjeha.
i neuspjeha.
03:44
Team and execution came in second,
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Tim i izvedba su na drugom mjestu,
03:46
and the idea,
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a ideja,
03:47
the differentiability of the idea,
the uniqueness of the idea,
the uniqueness of the idea,
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različitost ideje,
jedinstvenost ideje,
jedinstvenost ideje,
03:50
that actually came in third.
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je bila na trećem mjestu.
03:51
Now, this isn't absolutely definitive,
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Ovo nije apsolutno konačno,
03:53
it's not to say that
the idea isn't important,
the idea isn't important,
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ne kažem da ideja nije bitna,
03:56
but it very much surprised me that
the idea wasn't the most important thing.
the idea wasn't the most important thing.
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ali me veoma iznenadilo što ideja
nije najvažnija stvar.
nije najvažnija stvar.
03:59
Sometimes it mattered more when
it was actually timed.
it was actually timed.
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Ponekad je bilo bitnije
kad je zaista iznesena.
kad je zaista iznesena.
04:02
The last two, business model and funding,
made sense to me actually.
made sense to me actually.
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Zadnja dva, posao i financiranje,
su mi imali smisla.
su mi imali smisla.
04:05
I think business model
makes sense to be that low
makes sense to be that low
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Mislim ima smisla da je poslovni
model tako nisko
model tako nisko
04:08
because you can start out
without a business model
without a business model
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jer možete početi posao bez
poslovnog modela
poslovnog modela
04:10
and add one later if your customers
are demanding what you're creating.
are demanding what you're creating.
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a onda ga napraviti kasnije kad
to potrošači budu zahtijevali.
to potrošači budu zahtijevali.
04:13
And funding, I think as well,
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I financiranje, mislim,
04:15
if you're underfunded at first
but you're gaining traction,
but you're gaining traction,
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ako nemate dovoljno sredstava na početku
a dobivate na privlačnosti,
a dobivate na privlačnosti,
04:18
especially in today's age,
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pogotovo u današnjem dobu,
04:19
it's very, very easy to get
intense funding.
intense funding.
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vrlo, vrlo je lako doći do
ozbiljnih ulaganja.
ozbiljnih ulaganja.
04:21
So now let me give you some specific
examples about each of these.
examples about each of these.
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Sada ću vam pokazati nekoliko određenih
primjera za svaki od ovih.
primjera za svaki od ovih.
04:24
So take a wild success like Airbnb
that everybody knows about.
that everybody knows about.
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Uzmite divlji uspjeh kao što je Airbnb
za koji svi znaju.
za koji svi znaju.
04:27
Well, that company was famously
passed on by many smart investors
passed on by many smart investors
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Tu tvrtku su slavno svi
pametni investitori zaobilazili
pametni investitori zaobilazili
04:30
because people thought,
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jer su ljudi mislili,
04:31
"No one's going to rent out a space
in their home to a stranger."
in their home to a stranger."
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"Nitko neće iznajmiti svoj prostor u kući
strancu."
strancu."
04:34
Of course, people proved that wrong.
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Naravno, ljudi su pokazali suprotno.
04:36
But one of the reasons it succeeded,
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Ali jedan od razloga što su uspjeli,
04:38
aside from a good business model,
a good idea, great execution,
a good idea, great execution,
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uz dobar poslovni model,
dobru ideju, odličnu izvedbu,
dobru ideju, odličnu izvedbu,
04:41
is the timing.
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je tajming.
04:42
That company came out
right during the height of the recession
right during the height of the recession
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Ta tvrtka se pojavila upravo
u vrijeme vrhunca recesije
u vrijeme vrhunca recesije
04:45
when people really needed extra money,
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kad je ljudima trebao dodatni novac,
04:47
and that maybe helped people overcome
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i to je možda pomoglo ljudima da
04:48
their objection to renting out
their own home to a stranger.
their own home to a stranger.
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prevladaju prigovore iznajmljivanju svog
doma strancu.
doma strancu.
04:51
Same thing with Uber.
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Ista stvar i sa Uberom.
04:52
Uber came out,
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Uber se pojavio,
04:53
incredible company,
incredible business model,
incredible business model,
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nevjerojatna tvrtka,
nevjerojatan poslovni model,
nevjerojatan poslovni model,
04:56
great execution, too.
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odlična izvedba, isto.
04:57
But the timing was so perfect
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Ali je tajming bio savršen
04:58
for their need to get drivers
into the system.
into the system.
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da uvedu vozače u sustav.
05:00
Drivers were looking for extra money;
it was very, very important.
it was very, very important.
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Vozači su tražili dodatni novac,
to je bilo veoma važno.
to je bilo veoma važno.
05:03
Some of our early successes, Citysearch,
came out when people needed web pages.
came out when people needed web pages.
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Neki od naših uspjeha, Citysearch, su se
pojavili kad je ljudima trebala web stranica.
pojavili kad je ljudima trebala web stranica.
05:07
GoTo.com, which we announced
actually at TED in 1998,
actually at TED in 1998,
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GoTo.com, koji smo zapravo najavili
na TED 1998. godine,
na TED 1998. godine,
05:10
was when companies were looking for
cost-effective ways to get traffic.
cost-effective ways to get traffic.
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se pojavio kad su tvrtkama trebali
isplativi načini da povećaju promet.
isplativi načini da povećaju promet.
05:13
We thought the idea was so great,
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Mislili smo da je ideja izvrsna,
05:15
but actually, the timing was probably
maybe more important.
maybe more important.
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ali je zapravo tajming bio
možda bitniji.
možda bitniji.
05:17
And then some of our failures.
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I onda neki od naših neuspjeha.
05:19
We started a company called Z.com,
it was an online entertainment company.
it was an online entertainment company.
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Pokrenuli smo tvrtku imena Z.com,
online tvrtka za zabavu.
online tvrtka za zabavu.
05:22
We were so excited about it --
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Bili smo vrlo uzbuđeni --
05:24
we raised enough money,
we had a great business model,
we had a great business model,
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prikupili smo dovoljno novaca,
imali smo izvrstan poslovni model,
imali smo izvrstan poslovni model,
05:26
we even signed incredibly great
Hollywood talent to join the company.
Hollywood talent to join the company.
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čak smo potpisali ugovor sa nevjerojatnim
Hollywoodskim talentom.
Hollywoodskim talentom.
05:29
But broadband penetration
was too low in 1999-2000.
was too low in 1999-2000.
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Ali je prodiranje širokopojasnih
usluga bilo prenisko 1999-2000.
usluga bilo prenisko 1999-2000.
05:32
It was too hard to watch
video content online,
video content online,
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Bilo je teško gledati
video sadržaj online,
video sadržaj online,
05:34
you had to put codecs in your browser
and do all this stuff,
and do all this stuff,
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morali ste instalirati codece u
svoj pretraživač i sve te stvari,
svoj pretraživač i sve te stvari,
05:37
and the company eventually
went out of business in 2003.
went out of business in 2003.
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i tvrtka je naposlijetku propala
2003. godine.
2003. godine.
05:39
Just two years later,
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Samo dvije godine poslije,
05:41
when the codec problem
was solved by Adobe Flash
was solved by Adobe Flash
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kada je Adobe Flash rješio
problem codeca
problem codeca
05:43
and when broadband penetration
crossed 50 percent in America,
crossed 50 percent in America,
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i kad je prodiranje širokopojasnih usluga
prešlo 50% u Americi,
prešlo 50% u Americi,
05:47
YouTube was perfectly timed.
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Youtube je imao savršen tajming.
05:49
Great idea, but unbelievable timing.
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Odlična ideja, nevjerojatan tajming.
05:51
In fact, YouTube didn't even have
a business model when it first started.
a business model when it first started.
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Ustvari, Youtube nije čak imao
ni poslovni model kad je krenio.
ni poslovni model kad je krenio.
05:54
It wasn't even certain that
that would work out.
that would work out.
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Nisu bili sigurni da će
uspjeti.
uspjeti.
05:57
But that was beautifully,
beautifully timed.
beautifully timed.
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Ali to je bilo divno,
predivno tempirano.
predivno tempirano.
05:59
So what I would say, in summary,
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Želim reći, dakle,
06:00
is execution definitely matters a lot.
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izvedba puno znači.
06:03
The idea matters a lot.
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Ideja također puno znači.
06:04
But timing might matter even more.
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Ali tajming znači više.
06:06
And the best way to really assess timing
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Najbolji način da se procijeni tajming
06:08
is to really look at whether
consumers are really ready
consumers are really ready
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je da pogledate jesu li
potrošači zaista spremni
potrošači zaista spremni
06:11
for what you have to offer them.
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za ono što im nudite.
06:12
And to be really, really honest about it,
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I da budete zaista, zaista iskreni u vezi toga,
06:14
not be in denial about
any results that you see,
any results that you see,
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a ne da poričete rezultate koje vidite.
06:16
because if you have something you love,
you want to push it forward,
you want to push it forward,
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jer ako imate nešto što volite,
želite da se probije.
želite da se probije.
06:20
but you have to be very, very honest
about that factor on timing.
about that factor on timing.
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ali morate biti veoma, veoma iskreni
u vezi tajminga.
u vezi tajminga.
06:23
As I said earlier,
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Kao što sam već rekao
06:24
I think startups can change the world
and make the world a better place.
and make the world a better place.
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Mislim da startup tvrtke mogu promijeniti
i poboljšati svijet.
i poboljšati svijet.
06:27
I hope some of these insights
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Nadam se da vam ovi uvidi
06:28
can maybe help you
have a slightly higher success ratio,
have a slightly higher success ratio,
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mogu možda pomoći da imate
malo veći odnos uspjeha,
malo veći odnos uspjeha,
06:31
and thus make something great
come to the world
come to the world
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i tako pomognete da nešto odlično
zaživi u svijetu
zaživi u svijetu
06:33
that wouldn't have happened otherwise.
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što inače ne bi.
06:35
Thank you very much,
you've been a great audience.
you've been a great audience.
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Mnogo vam hvala,
bili ste divna publika.
bili ste divna publika.
06:37
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Bill Gross - Idea guyBill Gross founded Idealab, an incubator of new inventions, ideas and businesses.
Why you should listen
Bill Gross is the founder of Idealab, a business incubator focused on new ideas. (He's now the chair and CEO.) He helped create GoTo.com, the first sponsored search company. He also created the Snap! search engine, which allows users to preview hyperlinks.
Gross has been an entrepreneur since high school, when he founded a solar energy company. In college, he patented a new loudspeaker design, and after school he started a company that was later acquired by Lotus, and then launched an educational software publishing company. Now, he serves on the boards of companies in the areas of automation, software and renewable energy.
Bill Gross | Speaker | TED.com