TED2015
Bill Gross: The single biggest reason why start-ups succeed
Bill Gross: Najveći razlog zbog kog startapi uspjevaju
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Bil Gros osnivač je mnogih startapa, inkubatora i mnogo čega drugog - i zanimalo ga je zašto neki uspjevaju, a drugi ne. Prikupio je podatke iz stotina kompanija, svojih i tuđih, i rangirao svaku kompaniju na pet ključnih faktora. Pronašao je da se jedan faktor ističe među ostalim - i iznenadio se.
Bill Gross - Idea guy
Bill Gross founded Idealab, an incubator of new inventions, ideas and businesses. Full bio
Bill Gross founded Idealab, an incubator of new inventions, ideas and businesses. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
I'm really excited to share with you
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Srećan sam što mogu da podijelim s vama
00:14
some findings that really surprise me
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neke zaključke koji me iznenađuju
00:17
about what makes companies
succeed the most,
succeed the most,
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o tome zašto neke kompanije
imaju najviše uspjeha,
imaju najviše uspjeha,
00:20
what factors actually matter the most
for startup success.
for startup success.
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i koji su to najvažniji faktori
za startup uspjeh
za startup uspjeh
00:25
I believe that the startup organization
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Ubjeđen sam da je organizovanje startup-a
00:27
is one of the greatest forms
to make the world a better place.
to make the world a better place.
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je jedan od sjajnih načina
da se svijet učini boljim
da se svijet učini boljim
Ako uzmete grupu ljudi koji su motivisani
da ulože kapital
da ulože kapital
00:31
If you take a group of people
with the right equity incentives
with the right equity incentives
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i organizujete ih u startup
00:34
and organize them in a startup,
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uspjećete otključati ljudski potencijal
koji nikad ranije nije bio moguć.
koji nikad ranije nije bio moguć.
00:36
you can unlock human potential
in a way never before possible.
in a way never before possible.
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Natjeraćete ih da urade
nevjerovatne stvari
nevjerovatne stvari
00:40
You get them to achieve
unbelievable things.
unbelievable things.
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Međutim ako je organizovanje
startup-a tako sjajno
startup-a tako sjajno
00:43
But if the startup
organization is so great,
organization is so great,
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zašto onda toliko njih propada?
00:45
why do so many fail?
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To je ono što sam želio da saznam
00:47
That's what I wanted to find out.
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Želio sam da saznam
šta je u stvari najvažnije
šta je u stvari najvažnije
00:48
I wanted to find out what
actually matters most
actually matters most
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za startup uspjeh.
00:51
for startup success.
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Pokušao sam da budem sistematičan,
00:52
And I wanted to try
to be systematic about it,
to be systematic about it,
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da izbjegnem neke moje instinktivne ideje
ili neke pogrešne predstave
ili neke pogrešne predstave
00:54
avoid some of my instincts
and maybe misperceptions I have
and maybe misperceptions I have
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zbog kompanija koje sam
tokom ovih godina vidio
tokom ovih godina vidio
00:57
from so many companies
I've seen over the years.
I've seen over the years.
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Želio sam da znam ovo
01:00
I wanted to know this
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jer ja sam počeo da poslujem
od svoje 12-te godine
od svoje 12-te godine
01:01
because I've been starting businesses
since I was 12 years old
since I was 12 years old
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kad sam prodavao slatkiše
u osnovnoj školi
u osnovnoj školi
01:04
when I sold candy at the bus stop
in junior high school,
in junior high school,
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prodavao sam naprave
za solarnu energiju, u gimnaziji
za solarnu energiju, u gimnaziji
01:07
to high school, when I made
solar energy devices,
solar energy devices,
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a na fakultetu sam pravio zvučnike.
01:09
to college, when I made loudspeakers.
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Kad sam završio fakultet,
započeo sam rad softver kompanija
započeo sam rad softver kompanija
01:11
And when I graduated from college,
I started software companies.
I started software companies.
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Prije 20 godina,
započeo sam rad Idealab-a
započeo sam rad Idealab-a
01:14
And 20 years ago,
I started Idealab,
I started Idealab,
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a u posljednjih 20 godina,
započeli smo rad više od 100 kompanija,
započeli smo rad više od 100 kompanija,
01:16
and in the last 20 years,
we started more than 100 companies,
we started more than 100 companies,
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mnoge s uspjehom, mnoge s neuspjehom.
01:19
many successes, and many big failures.
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Mnogo smo naučili iz tih neuspjeha.
01:21
We learned a lot from those failures.
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Pokušao sam da se fokusiram
na faktore koji su zaslužni
na faktore koji su zaslužni
01:23
So I tried to look across what factors
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za uspjeh ili neuspjeh većine kompanija.
01:26
accounted the most for company
success and failure.
success and failure.
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Pogledao sam ovih pet.
01:29
So I looked at these five.
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Prvi faktor, ideja.
01:31
First, the idea.
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Nekad sam mislio da je ideja sve.
01:32
I used to think that
the idea was everything.
the idea was everything.
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Moju kompaniju sam nazvao
Idealab zbog obožavanja
Idealab zbog obožavanja
01:34
I named my company Idealab
for how much I worship
for how much I worship
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onog "aha!" momenta
kada ti ideja prvi put padne na pamet.
kada ti ideja prvi put padne na pamet.
01:36
the "aha!" moment when you first
come up with the idea.
come up with the idea.
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Međutim vremenom,
01:39
But then over time,
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shvatio sam da su možda tim,
izvršenje ideje, prilagodljivost,
izvršenje ideje, prilagodljivost,
01:40
I came to think that maybe the team,
the execution, adaptability,
the execution, adaptability,
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bilo važniji i od same ideje.
01:43
that mattered even more than the idea.
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Nikad nisam ni pomislio da ću citirati
boksera Majka Tajsona na TED sceni,
boksera Majka Tajsona na TED sceni,
01:46
I never thought I'd be quoting
boxer Mike Tyson on the TED stage,
boxer Mike Tyson on the TED stage,
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ali on je jednom rekao,
01:50
but he once said,
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"Svako ima plan, dok ne dobije
udarac u facu." (Smijeh)
udarac u facu." (Smijeh)
01:52
"Everybody has a plan, until they get
punched in the face." (Laughter)
punched in the face." (Laughter)
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A mislim da je tako i za biznis.
01:56
And I think that's so true
about business as well.
about business as well.
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Toliko toga o timskom izvršenju
01:59
So much about a team's execution
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leži u njegovoj sposobnosti da primi
udarac u facu od strane klijenta.
udarac u facu od strane klijenta.
02:02
is its ability to adapt to getting punched
in the face by the customer.
in the face by the customer.
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Klijent je istinita realnost.
02:05
The customer is the true reality.
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I tako sam došao do zaključka
02:07
And that's why I came to think
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da je tim možda najvažnija stvar.
02:09
that the team maybe
was the most important thing.
was the most important thing.
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Zatim sam počeo
da analiziram biznis model.
da analiziram biznis model.
Da li kompanija ima veoma jasan put
prikupljanja klijentovih prihoda?
prikupljanja klijentovih prihoda?
02:12
Then I started looking
at the business model.
at the business model.
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02:14
Does the company have a very clear path
generating customer revenues?
generating customer revenues?
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Ova misao je ispala najbitnija
02:17
That started rising to the top
in my thinking
in my thinking
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u vezi s tim šta je važno za uspjeh.
02:19
about maybe what mattered
most for success.
most for success.
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Onda sam analizirao finansiranje.
02:21
Then I looked at the funding.
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Ponekad su kompanije primale
moćne iznose novca.
moćne iznose novca.
02:23
Sometimes companies received
intense amounts of funding.
intense amounts of funding.
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Možda je to najvažnija stvar?
02:25
Maybe that's the most important thing?
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A onda naravno, izbor pravog momenta.
02:27
And then of course,
the timing.
the timing.
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Je li ideja preuranjena
i svijet nije spreman za nju?
i svijet nije spreman za nju?
02:29
Is the idea way too early and
the world's not ready for it?
the world's not ready for it?
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Je li preuranjena u smislu da moraš
da edukuješ svijet jer si ti napredniji?
da edukuješ svijet jer si ti napredniji?
02:32
Is it early, as in, you're in advance
and you have to educate the world?
and you have to educate the world?
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Je li prosto to prava ideja?
02:35
Is it just right?
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Ili je li suviše kasno
i već ima konkurencije?
i već ima konkurencije?
02:36
Or is it too late, and there's
already too many competitors?
already too many competitors?
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Pokušao sam da izanaliziram
ovih pet faktora veoma oprezno
ovih pet faktora veoma oprezno
02:39
So I tried to look very carefully
at these five factors
at these five factors
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upoređujući mnoge kompanije.
02:41
across many companies.
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Proučavao sam svih 100 Idealab kompanija,
02:42
And I looked across all 100
Idealab companies,
Idealab companies,
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i 100 koje nisu bile dio Idealab-a
02:45
and 100 non-Idealab companies
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da bih probao da dođem
do nekog naučno baziranog podatka.
do nekog naučno baziranog podatka.
02:46
to try and come up with
something scientific about it.
something scientific about it.
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Pa da kažemo prvo nešto
o ovim Idealab kompanijama,
o ovim Idealab kompanijama,
02:49
So first, on these Idealab companies,
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prvih pet kompanija
02:51
the top five companies --
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Citysearch, CarsDirect, GoTo,
NetZero, Tickets.com --
NetZero, Tickets.com --
02:53
Citysearch, CarsDirect, GoTo,
NetZero, Tickets.com --
NetZero, Tickets.com --
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uspjesi ovih kompanija
mjere se milijardama dolara,
mjere se milijardama dolara,
02:57
those all became billion-dollar successes.
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A onih pet kompanija s dna ljestvice -
02:59
And the five companies on the bottom --
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Z.com, Insider Pages, MyLife,
Desktop Factory, Peoplelink -
Desktop Factory, Peoplelink -
03:01
Z.com, Insider Pages, MyLife,
Desktop Factory, Peoplelink --
Desktop Factory, Peoplelink --
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svi smo ulagali velike nade,
ali nisu uspjele.
ali nisu uspjele.
03:03
we all had high hopes for,
but didn't succeed.
but didn't succeed.
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Pokušao sam da rangiram sve karakteristike
03:06
So I tried to rank across all
of those attributes
of those attributes
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po osjećaju koji sam imao za rezultate
ovih kompanija i iz svakog ugla.
ovih kompanija i iz svakog ugla.
03:09
how I felt those companies scored
on each of those dimensions.
on each of those dimensions.
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Zatim za firme koje nisu dio Idealab-a,
pratio sam najveće uspjehe,
pratio sam najveće uspjehe,
03:13
And then for non-Idealab companies,
I looked at wild successes,
I looked at wild successes,
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poput Airbnb-a, Instagram-a i Uber-a,
i Youtube-a i LinkedIn-a.
i Youtube-a i LinkedIn-a.
03:16
like Airbnb and Instagram and Uber
and Youtube and LinkedIn.
and Youtube and LinkedIn.
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I neke neuspješne kompanije:
03:20
And some failures:
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kao što su Webvan, Kozmo, Pets.com
03:21
Webvan, Kozmo, Pets.com
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Flooz and Friendster.
03:23
Flooz and Friendster.
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Ove poslednje imale su moćno finansiranje,
03:24
The bottom companies had intense funding,
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čak su imale i biznis modele
u nekim slučajevima,
u nekim slučajevima,
03:26
they even had business models
in some cases,
in some cases,
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ali nisu uspjele.
03:28
but they didn't succeed.
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Pokušao sam da pronađem faktore
koji su bili najodgovorniji
koji su bili najodgovorniji
03:29
I tried to look at what factors
actually accounted the most
actually accounted the most
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za uspjehe i neuspjehe
u svim ovim kompanijama,
u svim ovim kompanijama,
03:32
for success and failure across
all of these companies,
all of these companies,
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a rezultati su me zaista iznenadili.
03:35
and the results really surprised me.
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Faktor broj jedan bio je
izbor pravog momenta.
izbor pravog momenta.
03:37
The number one thing was timing.
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Izbor pravog momenta iznosio je 42%
03:39
Timing accounted for 42 percent
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razlike između uspjeha i neuspjeha.
03:42
of the difference
between success and failure.
between success and failure.
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Tim i izvršavanje
bili su na drugom mjestu.
bili su na drugom mjestu.
03:44
Team and execution came in second,
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a ideja,
03:46
and the idea,
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diferenciranje ideje,
jedinstvenost ideje,
jedinstvenost ideje,
03:47
the differentiability of the idea,
the uniqueness of the idea,
the uniqueness of the idea,
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bili su u stvari na trećem mjestu.
03:50
that actually came in third.
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Svakako ovo nije apsolutno tačno,
03:51
Now, this isn't absolutely definitive,
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ne da bi se reklo da ideja nije važna,
03:53
it's not to say that
the idea isn't important,
the idea isn't important,
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ali me je jako iznenadilo
da ideja nije najvažnija.
da ideja nije najvažnija.
03:56
but it very much surprised me that
the idea wasn't the most important thing.
the idea wasn't the most important thing.
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Nekad je bilo bitnije
kad se za ideju nađe pravi momenat.
kad se za ideju nađe pravi momenat.
03:59
Sometimes it mattered more when
it was actually timed.
it was actually timed.
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Posljednja dva faktora, biznis model
i finansije, su mi bili krajnje jasni.
i finansije, su mi bili krajnje jasni.
04:02
The last two, business model and funding,
made sense to me actually.
made sense to me actually.
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To što je biznis model nisko na skali
ja mislim da ima smisla
ja mislim da ima smisla
04:05
I think business model
makes sense to be that low
makes sense to be that low
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jer možete započeti biznis
bez biznis modela
bez biznis modela
04:08
because you can start out
without a business model
without a business model
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i napraviti ga kasnije kada mušterije
potražuju od vas to što stvarate.
potražuju od vas to što stvarate.
04:10
and add one later if your customers
are demanding what you're creating.
are demanding what you're creating.
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A za finansiranje, takođe mislim da,
04:13
And funding, I think as well,
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ako ste bez mnogo novca na početku
ali postajete prepoznatljivi,
ali postajete prepoznatljivi,
04:15
if you're underfunded at first
but you're gaining traction,
but you're gaining traction,
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pogotovo u današnjem vremenu,
04:18
especially in today's age,
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postaje veoma lako
da dobijete velike prilive finansija.
da dobijete velike prilive finansija.
04:19
it's very, very easy to get
intense funding.
intense funding.
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Sad ću vam dati konkretne primjere
vezane za sve ovo pojedinačno.
vezane za sve ovo pojedinačno.
04:21
So now let me give you some specific
examples about each of these.
examples about each of these.
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Uzmimo kao primjer vrtoglavi uspjeh Airbnb
o kome svi znaju.
o kome svi znaju.
04:24
So take a wild success like Airbnb
that everybody knows about.
that everybody knows about.
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E pa, tu kompaniju su zaobiliazili
pametni investitori
pametni investitori
04:27
Well, that company was famously
passed on by many smart investors
passed on by many smart investors
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zato što su ljudi razmišljali,
04:30
because people thought,
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"Niko neće izdati prostor u kući
tamo nekom strancu."
tamo nekom strancu."
04:31
"No one's going to rent out a space
in their home to a stranger."
in their home to a stranger."
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Naravno ispostavilo se da ti ljudi
nisu bili u pravu.
nisu bili u pravu.
04:34
Of course, people proved that wrong.
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04:36
But one of the reasons it succeeded,
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Ipak razlog uspjeha ove kompanije,
04:38
aside from a good business model,
a good idea, great execution,
a good idea, great execution,
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pored dobrog biznis modela,
dobre ideje, sjajnog izvršenja,
dobre ideje, sjajnog izvršenja,
leži u odabiru pravog momenta.
04:41
is the timing.
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04:42
That company came out
right during the height of the recession
right during the height of the recession
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Ova kompanija se izdvojila
baš na vrhuncu recesiije
baš na vrhuncu recesiije
04:45
when people really needed extra money,
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kad je ljudima bio potreban
dodatan izvor prihoda,
dodatan izvor prihoda,
04:47
and that maybe helped people overcome
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i to im je možda pomoglo da prevaziđu
04:48
their objection to renting out
their own home to a stranger.
their own home to a stranger.
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animozitet prema izdavanju
svog doma nekom strancu.
svog doma nekom strancu.
04:51
Same thing with Uber.
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Isto se desilo i sa Uber-om.
04:52
Uber came out,
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04:53
incredible company,
incredible business model,
incredible business model,
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Uber se odvojio od ostalih,
sjajna kompanija, sjajan biznis model,
04:56
great execution, too.
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04:57
But the timing was so perfect
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takođe i sjajno izvršenje.
04:58
for their need to get drivers
into the system.
into the system.
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Ali momenat je bio savršen
za njihovu potrebu da vozače
uvedu u sistem.
uvedu u sistem.
05:00
Drivers were looking for extra money;
it was very, very important.
it was very, very important.
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Vozači su tražili dodatni izvor prihoda;
a to je bilo veoma, veoma važno.
a to je bilo veoma, veoma važno.
05:03
Some of our early successes, Citysearch,
came out when people needed web pages.
came out when people needed web pages.
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Naš raniji uspjeh, Citysearch npr,
izdvojila se kad su tražene web stranice
izdvojila se kad su tražene web stranice
05:07
GoTo.com, which we announced
actually at TED in 1998,
actually at TED in 1998,
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GoTo.com, koju smo predstavili
baš na TED-u 1998.,
baš na TED-u 1998.,
05:10
was when companies were looking for
cost-effective ways to get traffic.
cost-effective ways to get traffic.
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desila se kad su firme tražile
isplative načine za posjećenost.
isplative načine za posjećenost.
05:13
We thought the idea was so great,
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05:15
but actually, the timing was probably
maybe more important.
maybe more important.
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Mislili smo da je ideja zaista sjajna,
ali u stvari, odabir pravog momenta
je vjerovatno bio najvažniji.
je vjerovatno bio najvažniji.
05:17
And then some of our failures.
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05:19
We started a company called Z.com,
it was an online entertainment company.
it was an online entertainment company.
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A sada da kažemo nešto o našim neuspjesima
Osnovali smo firmu pod imenom Z.com,
bila je to firma za online zabavu
bila je to firma za online zabavu
05:22
We were so excited about it --
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05:24
we raised enough money,
we had a great business model,
we had a great business model,
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Bili smo tako uzbuđeni zbog nje -
05:26
we even signed incredibly great
Hollywood talent to join the company.
Hollywood talent to join the company.
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podigli smo dovoljno novca,
imali smo sjajan biznis model,
imali smo sjajan biznis model,
05:29
But broadband penetration
was too low in 1999-2000.
was too low in 1999-2000.
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čak smo potpisali da nam se kao kompaniji
pridruži izuzetan i sjajan Holivud talent
pridruži izuzetan i sjajan Holivud talent
05:32
It was too hard to watch
video content online,
video content online,
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Ali je penetracija broadband-a
bilo jako niska 1999-2000.
bilo jako niska 1999-2000.
05:34
you had to put codecs in your browser
and do all this stuff,
and do all this stuff,
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Bilo je suviše teško gledati
online video sadržaj,
online video sadržaj,
05:37
and the company eventually
went out of business in 2003.
went out of business in 2003.
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morao si da staviš kodove u pretraživač
i uradiš sve te stvari,
i uradiš sve te stvari,
05:39
Just two years later,
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05:41
when the codec problem
was solved by Adobe Flash
was solved by Adobe Flash
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I firma je na kraju
prestala s radom 2003.
prestala s radom 2003.
05:43
and when broadband penetration
crossed 50 percent in America,
crossed 50 percent in America,
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Samo dvije godine kasnije,
kada je kodek problem
riješen pojavom Adobe Flash-a
riješen pojavom Adobe Flash-a
05:47
YouTube was perfectly timed.
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i kada je penetracija broadband-a
prešla 50% u Americi,
prešla 50% u Americi,
05:49
Great idea, but unbelievable timing.
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You Tube je imao savršen momenat.
05:51
In fact, YouTube didn't even have
a business model when it first started.
a business model when it first started.
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Sjajna ideja, ali nezamisliv momenat.
05:54
It wasn't even certain that
that would work out.
that would work out.
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U stvari, You Tube nije čak ni imao
biznis model u početku.
biznis model u početku.
05:57
But that was beautifully,
beautifully timed.
beautifully timed.
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Nije čak ni bilo sigurno
da li će proraditi.
da li će proraditi.
05:59
So what I would say, in summary,
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Ali momenat je bio savšren i divan.
06:00
is execution definitely matters a lot.
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Ukratko, želim da vam kažem
da izvršenje je definitivno jako bitno.
06:03
The idea matters a lot.
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06:04
But timing might matter even more.
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Ideja je jako bitna.
Ali odabir pravog momenta je još bitniji.
06:06
And the best way to really assess timing
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A najbolji način da procjenite momenat
06:08
is to really look at whether
consumers are really ready
consumers are really ready
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je da provjerite da li su
potrošači zaista spremni
potrošači zaista spremni
06:11
for what you have to offer them.
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za ono što želite da im ponudite.
06:12
And to be really, really honest about it,
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I da budete zaista iskreni u vezi s tim,
06:14
not be in denial about
any results that you see,
any results that you see,
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da ne opovrgavate bilo koje
rezultate koje vidite,
rezultate koje vidite,
06:16
because if you have something you love,
you want to push it forward,
you want to push it forward,
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jer kad imate nešto što volite,
želite da ga progurate,
želite da ga progurate,
06:20
but you have to be very, very honest
about that factor on timing.
about that factor on timing.
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ali morate biti zaista iskreni prema
faktoru odabira pravog momenta.
faktoru odabira pravog momenta.
06:23
As I said earlier,
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06:24
I think startups can change the world
and make the world a better place.
and make the world a better place.
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Kao što sam i ranije rekao,
Startup-ovi mogu da promjene svijet,
i učine ga boljim.
i učine ga boljim.
06:27
I hope some of these insights
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Nadam se da vam neki od ovih uvida
06:28
can maybe help you
have a slightly higher success ratio,
have a slightly higher success ratio,
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mogu pomoći da imate
makar malo višu stopu uspjeha,
makar malo višu stopu uspjeha,
06:31
and thus make something great
come to the world
come to the world
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i na taj način učinite da nešto
sjajno dođe na ovaj svijet
sjajno dođe na ovaj svijet
06:33
that wouldn't have happened otherwise.
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06:35
Thank you very much,
you've been a great audience.
you've been a great audience.
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a koje se inače ne bi desilo.
Hvala vam puno.
(Aplauz)
(Aplauz)
06:37
(Applause)
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Bill Gross - Idea guyBill Gross founded Idealab, an incubator of new inventions, ideas and businesses.
Why you should listen
Bill Gross is the founder of Idealab, a business incubator focused on new ideas. (He's now the chair and CEO.) He helped create GoTo.com, the first sponsored search company. He also created the Snap! search engine, which allows users to preview hyperlinks.
Gross has been an entrepreneur since high school, when he founded a solar energy company. In college, he patented a new loudspeaker design, and after school he started a company that was later acquired by Lotus, and then launched an educational software publishing company. Now, he serves on the boards of companies in the areas of automation, software and renewable energy.
Bill Gross | Speaker | TED.com