TED2003
Jared Diamond: Why do societies collapse?
Jared Diamond o razlozima propadanja društava
Filmed:
Readability: 5.3
2,576,778 views
Zašto društva propadaju? Lekcijama iz nordijske kulture na Grenlandu iz željeznog doba, s raskrčenog Uskršnjeg otoka i današnje Montane, Jared Diamond govori o znakovima blizine kolapsa i o tome kako ga, ako ga primijetimo na vrijeme, možemo spriječiti.
Jared Diamond - Civilization scholar
Jared Diamond investigates why cultures prosper or decline -- and what we can learn by taking a broad look across many kinds of societies. Full bio
Jared Diamond investigates why cultures prosper or decline -- and what we can learn by taking a broad look across many kinds of societies. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:18
I think all of us have been interested, at one time or another,
0
0
4000
Mislim da smo svi u jednom trenutku bili zainteresirani
00:22
in the romantic mysteries of all those societies that collapsed,
1
4000
4000
za romantične misterije svih onih društava koja su propala,
00:27
such as the classic Maya in the Yucatan, the Easter Islanders,
2
9000
4000
poput klasičnih Maya s Yucatána, stanovnika Uskršnjih otoka,
00:32
the Anasazi, Fertile Crescent society, Angor Wat, Great Zimbabwe
3
14000
4000
Anasazija, civilizacija Plodnog polumjeseca, Angkor Wata
00:36
and so on. And within the last decade or two,
4
18000
3000
Velikog Zimbabvea, itd. Tijekom posljednjih 10-20 godina,
00:40
archaeologists have shown us that there were environmental problems
5
22000
4000
arheolozi su nam pokazali da su prirodni čimbenici
00:44
underlying many of these past collapses.
6
26000
2000
uzrokovali mnoge od tih kolapsa u prošlosti.
00:47
But there were also plenty of places in the world
7
29000
1000
No, bilo je isto tako mnogo mjesta u svijetu
00:48
where societies have been developing for thousands of years
8
30000
3000
gdje se društva razvijaju tisućama godina
00:52
without any sign of a major collapse,
9
34000
2000
bez ikakvih naznaka većeg kolapsa,
00:54
such as Japan, Java, Tonga and Tikopea. So evidently, societies
10
36000
5000
kao što su Japan, Java, Tonga i Tikopia. Društva su, dakle,
01:00
in some areas are more fragile than in other areas.
11
42000
2000
u nekim područjima osjetljivija nego u drugima.
01:03
How can we understand what makes some societies more fragile
12
45000
3000
Kako možemo razumjeti što neka društva čini osjetljivijima
01:06
than other societies? The problem is obviously relevant
13
48000
6000
od drugih? Taj je problem očito važan
01:12
to our situation today, because today as well, there are
14
54000
3000
za našu današnju situaciju jer i danas postoje
01:15
some societies that have already collapsed, such as Somalia
15
57000
3000
društva koja su već propala, kao što su
01:19
and Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia. There are also
16
61000
3000
Somalija i Ruanda te nekadašnja Jugoslavija.
01:22
societies today that may be close to collapse, such as Nepal, Indonesia and Columbia.
17
64000
5000
Danas postoje i društva koja su možda blizu kolapsa, npr. Nepal, Indonezija i Kolumbija.
01:27
What about ourselves?
18
69000
3000
A što je s nama (SAD)?
01:30
What is there that we can learn from the past that would help us avoid
19
72000
5000
Što možemo naučiti iz prošlosti kako bismo izbjegli
01:36
declining or collapsing in the way that so many past societies have?
20
78000
3000
opadanje ili propast na način na koji su to iskusila mnoga društva u prošlosti?
01:41
Obviously the answer to this question is not going
21
83000
2000
Odgovor na ovo pitanje očito neće biti
01:43
to be a single factor. If anyone tells you that there is a single-factor
22
85000
3000
samo jedan čimbenik. Ako vam netko kaže da samo jedan čimbenik
01:47
explanation for societal collapses, you know right away
23
89000
3000
objašnjava društvene kolapse, odmah znate
01:50
that they're an idiot. This is a complex subject.
24
92000
3000
da je budala. To je složena tema.
01:54
But how can we make sense out of the complexities of this subject?
25
96000
3000
No, kako da razjasnimo složenosti ove teme?
01:58
In analyzing societal collapses, I've arrived at a
26
100000
3000
Analizom propadanja društava, naišao sam na
02:01
five-point framework -- a checklist of things that I go through
27
103000
4000
shemu s pet točaka -- lista stvari kroz koje prođem
02:05
to try and understand collapses. And I'll illustrate that five-point
28
107000
4000
kako bih razumio kolapse. Pokazat ću vam tu shemu s pet točaka
02:10
framework by the extinction of the Greenland Norse society.
29
112000
4000
na primjeru izumrlog grenlandskog nordijskog društva.
02:15
This is a European society with literate records,
30
117000
3000
To je evidentirano pismeno europsko društvo,
02:18
so we know a good deal about the people and their motivation.
31
120000
3000
tako da znamo dosta o njima i njihovoj motivaciji.
02:22
In AD 984 Vikings went out to Greenland, settled Greenland,
32
124000
4000
984. godine Vikinzi su otišli na Grenland i ondje se nastanili,
02:26
and around 1450 they died out -- the society collapsed,
33
128000
4000
a oko 1450. su izumrli – društvo je propalo
02:30
and every one of them ended up dead.
34
132000
2000
te su svi pomrli.
02:32
Why did they all end up dead? Well, in my five-point framework,
35
134000
4000
Zašto su umrli? Prema mojoj shemi od pet točaka,
02:36
the first item on the framework is to look for human impacts
36
138000
4000
prva točka je ljudski utjecaj
02:40
on the environment: people inadvertently destroying the resource
37
142000
3000
na okoliš: ljudi nesvjesno uništavaju prirodne izvore
02:43
base on which they depend. And in the case of the Viking Norse,
38
145000
4000
o kojima ovise. A u slučaju vikinških Nordijaca,
02:48
the Vikings inadvertently caused soil erosion and deforestation,
39
150000
5000
Vikinzi su nenamjerno uzrokovali eroziju tla i deforestaciju,
02:53
which was a particular problem for them because
40
155000
2000
što je za njih predstavljalo značajan problem jer im je
02:56
they required forests to make charcoal, to make iron.
41
158000
3000
šuma bila nužna za pravljenje drvenog ugljena i željeza.
02:59
So they ended up an Iron Age European society, virtually
42
161000
4000
Tako su priveli kraju društvo europskog željeznog doba, praktički
03:03
unable to make their own iron. A second item on my checklist is
43
165000
4000
bez mogućnosti da proizvode željezo. Druga stvar na mojoj listi
03:08
climate change. Climate can get warmer or colder or dryer or wetter.
44
170000
5000
jest promjena klime. Ona može postati toplija ili hladnija, suša ili vlažnija.
03:14
In the case of the Vikings -- in Greenland, the climate got colder
45
176000
3000
U slučaju Vikinga, na Grenlandu je klima postala hladnija
03:18
in the late 1300s, and especially in the 1400s. But a cold climate
46
180000
4000
krajem 14., a pogotovo u 15. stoljeću. No, hladna klima
03:22
isn't necessarily fatal, because the Inuit -- the Eskimos inhabiting
47
184000
4000
nije nužno smrtonosna; Inuiti – Eskimi koji su živjeli
03:27
Greenland at the same time -- did better, rather than worse,
48
189000
2000
na Grenlandu u isto vrijeme – bili su uspješniji
03:29
with cold climates. So why didn't the Greenland Norse as well?
49
191000
3000
u hladnim klimama. Zašto onda nisu i grenlandski Nordijci?
03:33
The third thing on my checklist is relations with neighboring
50
195000
3000
Treća stvar na mojoj listi odnosi su sa susjedima,
03:37
friendly societies that may prop up a society. And if that
51
199000
4000
prijateljskim narodima koji mogu podržati društvo. A ako se ta
03:41
friendly support is pulled away, that may make a society
52
203000
3000
prijateljska podrška povuče, društvo je
03:44
more likely to collapse. In the case of the Greenland Norse,
53
206000
3000
sklonije kolapsu. Grenlandski Nordijci
03:48
they had trade with the mother country -- Norway --
54
210000
2000
trgovali su s matičnom zemljom, Norveškom,
03:50
and that trade dwindled: partly because Norway got weaker,
55
212000
4000
što je propalo dijelom zbog toga što je Norveška oslabila,
03:54
partly because of sea ice between Greenland and Norway.
56
216000
3000
a dijelom zbog morskog leda između Grenlanda i Norveške.
03:59
The fourth item on my checklist is relations with hostile societies.
57
221000
5000
Četvrta točka na mojoj listi odnosi su s neprijateljskim društvima.
04:05
In the case of Norse Greenland, the hostiles were the Inuit --
58
227000
3000
Neprijatelji grenlandskih Nordijaca bili su Inuiti,
04:08
the Eskimos sharing Greenland -- with whom the Norse
59
230000
3000
Eskimi koji su također živjeli na Grenlandu i s kojima su Nordijci
04:12
got off to bad relationships. And we know that the Inuit
60
234000
4000
imali loše odnose. Znamo da su Inuiti
04:16
killed the Norse and, probably of greater importance,
61
238000
3000
ubijali Nordijce i da su vjerojatno, što je još važnije,
04:19
may have blocked access to the outer fjords, on which
62
241000
4000
blokirali im pristup vanjskim fjordovima, u kojima
04:23
the Norse depended for seals at a critical time of the year.
63
245000
4000
su Nordijci lovili tuljane u kritičnim razdobljima godine.
04:27
And then finally, the fifth item on my checklist is the political,
64
249000
4000
I napokon, peta točka na mojoj listi jesu politički,
04:31
economic, social and cultural factors in the society that make it
65
253000
4000
ekonomski, socijalni i kulturološki čimbenici društva koji mu
04:35
more or less likely that the society will perceive and solve its
66
257000
4000
u manjoj ili većoj mjeri omogućavaju da shvati i riješi
04:39
environmental problems. In the case of the Greenland Norse,
67
261000
4000
probleme u okolišu. Kulturološki faktori koji su
04:44
cultural factors that made it difficult for them
68
266000
2000
grenlandskim Nordijcima otežali
04:46
to solve their problems were: their commitments to a
69
268000
3000
rješavanje problema bili su njihova predanost
04:49
Christian society investing heavily in cathedrals; their being
70
271000
4000
kršćanskom društvu koje je mnogo ulagalo u izgradnju katedrala.
04:53
a competitive-ranked chiefly society; and their scorn for the Inuit,
71
275000
5000
To je društvo bilo poglavarsko, kompetitivno rangirano, puno prezira prema Inuitima
04:59
from whom they refused to learn. So that's how the five-part
72
281000
3000
od kojih su odbijali išta naučiti. Dakle, tako shema
05:02
framework is relevant to the collapse and eventual extinction of the Greenland Norse.
73
284000
5000
od pet točaka prikazuje kolaps i konačno izumiranje grenlandskih Nordijaca.
05:07
What about a society today?
74
289000
3000
A što je s današnjim društvom?
05:10
For the past five years, I've been taking my wife and kids to
75
292000
4000
Posljednih pet godina vodim suprugu i djecu
05:14
Southwestern Montana, where I worked as a teenager
76
296000
3000
u jugozapadnu Montanu gdje sam kao mladić radio
05:17
on the hay harvest. And Montana, at first sight, seems
77
299000
3000
na žetvi. Montana na prvi pogled izgleda
05:21
like the most pristine environment in the United States.
78
303000
3000
kao najčišća, netaknuta sredina u SAD-u.
05:24
But scratch the surface, and Montana suffers from serious problems.
79
306000
5000
No, ispod površine, Montana ima ozbiljnih problema.
05:29
Going through the same checklist: human environmental impacts?
80
311000
3000
Ako krenemo mojom listom: ljudski utjecaj na okoliš?
05:33
Yes, acute in Montana. Toxic problems from mine waste
81
315000
4000
Da, on je jak u Montani. Problemi toksičnosti iz rudarskog otpada
05:38
have caused damage of billions of dollars.
82
320000
2000
izazvali su štetu vrijednu milijarde dolara.
05:41
Problems from weeds, weed control, cost Montana nearly
83
323000
3000
Problemi s korovom i njegovim uništavanjem koštaju Montanu
05:44
200 million dollars a year. Montana has lost agricultural areas
84
326000
4000
gotovo 200 milijuna dolara godišnje. Montana je izgubila poljoprivredna područja
05:48
from salinization, problems of forest management,
85
330000
3000
zbog salinizacije, problema upravljanja šumama,
05:52
problems of forest fires. Second item on my checklist:
86
334000
3000
i šumskih požara. Druga stvar na mojoj listi –
05:56
climate change. Yes -- the climate in Montana is getting warmer
87
338000
3000
promjena klime. Da, klima u Montani postaje toplija
05:59
and drier, but Montana agriculture depends especially on irrigation
88
341000
4000
i suša, ali poljoprivreda u Montani posebno ovisi o navodnjavanju
06:03
from the snow pack, and as the snow is melting -- for example,
89
345000
3000
iz snježnog pokrivača, a kako se snijeg topi, primjerice,
06:07
as the glaciers in Glacier National Park are disappearing --
90
349000
3000
kako glečeri u Nacionalnom parku Glacier (SAD) nestaju.
06:10
that's bad news for Montana irrigation agriculture.
91
352000
3000
to je loše za navodnjavanje polja u Montani.
06:14
Third thing on my checklist: relations with friendlies
92
356000
2000
Treća stvar na mojoj listi: odnosi s prijateljima
06:16
that can sustain the society. In Montana today, more than half of
93
358000
4000
koji mogu održati društvo. Danas se više od polovine prihoda
06:20
the income of Montana is not earned within Montana,
94
362000
3000
Montane ne zarađuje u samoj državi,
06:24
but is derived from out of state: transfer payments from
95
366000
3000
već dolazi izvana: prijenos uplata iz socijalnog,
06:27
social security, investments and so on --
96
369000
2000
iz raznih ulaganja i slično,
06:30
which makes Montana vulnerable to the rest of the United States.
97
372000
3000
zbog čega je Montana osjetljiva u odnosu na ostatak SAD-a.
06:34
Fourth: relations with hostiles. Montanans have the same problems
98
376000
4000
Četvrto: odnosi s neprijateljima. Stanovnici Montane imaju iste probleme
06:38
as do all Americans, in being sensitive to problems
99
380000
4000
kao i svi Amerikanci, a to je da su osjetljivi na probleme
06:42
created by hostiles overseas affecting our oil supplies,
100
384000
4000
koje uzrokuju neprijatelji iz drugih zemalja, što utječe na naše zalihe nafte,
06:46
and terrorist attacks. And finally, last item on my checklist:
101
388000
5000
kao i na terorističke napade. I konačno, posljednja stavka na listi:
06:52
question of how political, economic, social, cultural attitudes
102
394000
2000
utjecaj političkih, ekonomskih, društvenih i kulturoloških stavova.
06:55
play into this. Montanans have long-held values, which today
103
397000
4000
Stanovnici Montane imaju tradicionalne vrijednosti, koje im danas
07:00
seem to be getting in the way of their solving their own problems.
104
402000
2000
čini se, stoje na putu rješavanju problema.
07:03
Long-held devotion to logging and to mines and to agriculture,
105
405000
4000
Dugogodišnja vjernost šumarstvu, rudarstvu i poljoprivredi
07:07
and to no government regulation; values that worked well
106
409000
4000
bez ikakve državne regulacije; vrijednosti koje su dobro funkcionirale
07:11
in the past, but they don't seem to be working well today.
107
413000
2000
u prošlosti, ali danas baš i ne funkcioniraju.
07:15
So, I'm looking at these issues of collapses
108
417000
2000
Dakle, ja promatram razloge propasti
07:17
for a lot of past societies and for many present societies.
109
419000
4000
mnogih prošlih, ali i sadašnjih društava.
07:22
Are there any general conclusions that arise?
110
424000
2000
Javljaju li se neki općeniti zaključci?
07:24
In a way, just like Tolstoy's statement about every unhappy marriage
111
426000
4000
Na neki način, kao Tolstojeva tvrdnja da je svaki nesretan brak
07:29
being different, every collapsed or endangered society is different --
112
431000
3000
drugačiji, tako je i svako propalo ili ugroženo društvo drugačije –
07:32
they all have different details. But nevertheless, there are certain
113
434000
4000
svako ima drugačije detalje. Ipak, postoje određene
07:36
common threads that emerge from these comparisons
114
438000
3000
zajedničke stavke koje proizlaze iz ovih usporedbi
07:39
of past societies that did or did not collapse
115
441000
3000
prošlih društava koja jesu ili nisu propala
07:42
and threatened societies today. One interesting common thread
116
444000
6000
i današnjih ugroženih društava. Jedna zanimljiva zajednička stvar
07:49
has to do with, in many cases, the rapidity of collapse
117
451000
4000
ima veze s, u mnogim slučajevima, brzinom propasti
07:53
after a society reaches its peak. There are many societies
118
455000
3000
nakon što društvo dostigne vrhunac. Postoje mnoga društva
07:57
that don't wind down gradually, but they build up -- get richer
119
459000
3000
koja ne propadaju postupno, već se izgrađuju, obogaćuju,
08:00
and more powerful -- and then within a short time, within a few decades
120
462000
3000
postaju moćnija, a onda za kratko vrijeme - nekoliko desetljeća
08:04
after their peak, they collapse. For example,
121
466000
2000
nakon vrhunca – kolabiraju. Na primjer,
08:06
the classic lowland Maya of the Yucatan began to collapse in the
122
468000
5000
klasični nizinski Maye s Yucatána počeli su propadati
08:12
early 800s -- literally a few decades after the Maya were building
123
474000
3000
početkom 9. st., doslovno nekoliko desetljeća nakon što su izgradili
08:15
their biggest monuments, and Maya population was greatest.
124
477000
5000
svoje najveće spomenike i kad im je populacija bila najveća.
08:20
Or again, the collapse of the Soviet Union took place
125
482000
3000
Ili pak, kolaps Sovjetskog Saveza dogodio se
08:23
within a couple of decades, maybe within a decade, of the time
126
485000
3000
samo nekoliko desetljeća, možda samo jedno desetljeće, nakon vremena
08:27
when the Soviet Union was at its greatest power.
127
489000
2000
kad je Sovjetski Savez bio na vrhuncu svoje snage.
08:30
An analogue would be the growth of bacteria in a petri dish.
128
492000
4000
Analogija tome bilo bi uzgajanje bakterija u Petrijevoj zdjelici.
08:35
These rapid collapses are especially likely where there's
129
497000
3000
Ove brze propasti posebno su vjerojatne ondje gdje postoji
08:38
a mismatch between available resources and resource consumption,
130
500000
4000
neusklađenost između dostupnih resursa i njihove potrošnje,
08:43
or a mismatch between economic outlays and economic potential.
131
505000
3000
ili neusklađenost između ekonomskih planova i ekonomskog potencijala.
08:47
In a petri dish, bacteria grow. Say they double every generation,
132
509000
5000
Bakterije rastu u Petrijevoj zdjelici. Udvostručuju se u svakoj generaciji
08:52
and five generations before the end the petri dish is 15/16ths empty,
133
514000
5000
i pet generacija prije kraja 15/16 Petrijeve zdjelice je prazno,
08:57
and then the next generation's 3/4ths empty, and the next generation
134
519000
3000
a onda je u sljedećoj generaciji ¾ prazno, a u sljedećoj
09:01
half empty. Within one generation after the petri dish still
135
523000
4000
je poluprazna. Potrebna je jedna generacija da zdjelica
09:05
being half empty, it is full. There's no more food and the bacteria have collapsed.
136
527000
5000
nakon što je poluprazna bude puna. Nema više hrane i bakterije propadaju.
09:10
So, this is a frequent theme:
137
532000
2000
Dakle, to je učestala pojava –
09:12
societies collapse very soon after reaching their peak in power.
138
534000
4000
društva propadaju ubrzo nakon dostignuća vrhunca moći.
09:17
What it means to put it mathematically is that, if you're concerned
139
539000
2000
Ako to postavimo matematički, proizlazi da, ako ste zabrinuti
09:19
about a society today, you should be looking not at the value
140
541000
5000
za društvo danas, ne biste trebali gledati vrijednost
09:24
of the mathematical function -- the wealth itself -- but you should
141
546000
3000
matematičke funkcije, odnosno samo bogatstvo, već biste trebali
09:27
be looking at the first derivative and the second derivatives
142
549000
3000
gledati prve i druge derivacije
09:30
of the function. That's one general theme. A second general theme
143
552000
4000
te funkcije. To je opće pravilo. Drugo opće pravilo
09:35
is that there are many, often subtle environmental factors that make
144
557000
5000
jest da postoji mnogo suptilnih faktora u okolišu
09:40
some societies more fragile than others. Many of those factors
145
562000
4000
koji neka društva čine osjetljivijima od drugih, a mnoge od tih faktora
09:44
are not well understood. For example, why is it that in the Pacific,
146
566000
3000
ne razumijemo u potpunosti. Na primjer, zašto su na Pacifiku,
09:48
of those hundreds of Pacific islands, why did Easter Island end up as
147
570000
4000
od stotina otoka, baš Uskršnji otoci postali
09:52
the most devastating case of complete deforestation?
148
574000
3000
slučajem najgoreg i potpunog raskrčenja šume?
09:56
It turns out that there were about nine different environmental
149
578000
3000
Ispostavilo se da je postojalo devet različitih faktora
09:59
factors -- some, rather subtle ones -- that were working against
150
581000
3000
okoliša, nekih suptilnih, a nekih koji su radili protiv
10:03
the Easter Islanders, and they involve fallout of volcanic tephra,
151
585000
4000
stanovnika otoka, kao što su na primjer posljedice vulkanske prašine,
10:08
latitude, rainfall. Perhaps the most subtle of them
152
590000
3000
geografska širina, padaline. Možda je najsuptilnije među njima
10:11
is that it turns out that a major input of nutrients
153
593000
2000
to što se ispostavilo da najveći doprinos hranjivih tvari
10:14
which protects island environments in the Pacific is from
154
596000
4000
koje štite okoliš na otocima u Pacifiku potječe
10:18
the fallout of continental dust from central Asia.
155
600000
3000
iz slegnute kontinentalne prašine iz središnje Azije.
10:21
Easter, of all Pacific islands, has the least input of dust
156
603000
4000
Od svih pacifičkih otoka, Uskršnji ima najmanje slegnute
10:25
from Asia restoring the fertility of its soils. But that's
157
607000
3000
azijske prašine koja obnavlja plodnost zemljišta. No,
10:29
a factor that we didn't even appreciate until 1999.
158
611000
3000
to je faktor koji nismo ni poznavali do 1999. godine.
10:34
So, some societies, for subtle environmental reasons,
159
616000
2000
Dakle, neka su društva zbog suptilnih prirodnih faktora
10:36
are more fragile than others. And then finally,
160
618000
3000
osjetljivija od drugih. Konačno,
10:39
another generalization. I'm now teaching a course
161
621000
2000
još jedna generalizacija. Trenutno predajem predmet
10:42
at UCLA, to UCLA undergraduates, on these collapses
162
624000
3000
na Kalifornijskom sveučilištu u Los Angelesu, preddiplomcima,
10:45
of societies. What really bugs my UCLA undergraduate students is,
163
627000
4000
o propastima društava. Ono što moje studente stvarno muči jest
10:49
how on earth did these societies not see what they were doing?
164
631000
3000
kako to da ta društva nisu vidjela što rade?
10:52
How could the Easter Islanders have deforested their environment?
165
634000
3000
Kako su stanovnici Ukršnjih otoka mogli posjeći cijelu šumu?
10:55
What did they say when they were cutting down the last palm tree?
166
637000
3000
Što su rekli kad su sjekli posljednju palmu?
10:59
Didn't they see what they were doing? How could societies
167
641000
3000
Zar nisu vidjeli što rade? Kako to da društva nisu primjećivala
11:02
not perceive their impacts on the environments and stop in time?
168
644000
4000
svoj utjecaj na okoliš i zaustavila ga na vrijeme?
11:07
And I would expect that, if our human civilization carries on,
169
649000
6000
Pretpostavljam da, ako naša ljudska civilizacija nastavi postojati,
11:14
then maybe in the next century people will be asking,
170
656000
3000
onda će se možda u sljedećem stoljeću ljudi pitati
11:17
why on earth did these people today in the year 2003 not see
171
659000
3000
zašto zaboga ovi ljudi, 2003. godine, nisu vidjeli
11:21
the obvious things that they were doing and take corrective action?
172
663000
3000
očite stvari koje su radili i zašto nisu nešto poduzeli?
11:25
It seems incredible in the past. In the future, it'll seem
173
667000
2000
Izgleda nevjerojatno kad se radi o prošlosti. U budućnosti izgleda
11:28
incredible what we are doing today. And so I've been
174
670000
3000
nevjerojatno to što danas radimo. Pokušavam
11:31
trying to develop a hierarchical set of considerations
175
673000
5000
razviti hijerarhijski skup razloga
11:36
about why societies fail to solve their problems --
176
678000
3000
zbog kojih društva ne uspijevaju riješiti svoje probleme.
11:40
why they fail to perceive the problems or, if they perceive them,
177
682000
2000
Zašto ne uspiju uvidjeti probleme, ili ako ih uvide,
11:42
why they fail to tackle them. Or, if they tackle them,
178
684000
3000
zašto se ne uspiju suočiti s njima? Ili, ako uspiju sa suočavanjem,
11:45
why do they fail to succeed in solving them?
179
687000
2000
zašto ih ne uspiju riješiti?
11:48
I'll just mention two generalizations in this area.
180
690000
3000
Spomenut ću dvije generalizacije u ovom području.
11:52
One blueprint for trouble, making collapse likely,
181
694000
2000
Jedna shema nevolje koja svakako predviđa kolaps
11:55
is where there is a conflict of interest between the short-term
182
697000
3000
jest sukob kratkotrajnih interesa one manjine
11:58
interest of the decision-making elites and the long-term
183
700000
4000
koja odlučuje i dugoročnih interesa
12:02
interest of the society as a whole, especially if the elites
184
704000
3000
društva kao cjeline, posebno ako je elita
12:06
are able to insulate themselves from the consequences
185
708000
2000
u mogućnosti izolirati se od posljedica
12:08
of their actions. Where what's good in the short run for the elite
186
710000
4000
svojih djela. Ono što je kratkoročno dobro za manjinu,
12:12
is bad for the society as a whole, there's a real risk of the elite
187
714000
4000
dugoročno je loše za društvo u cjelini. Postoji rizik da elita
12:16
doing things that would bring the society down in the long run.
188
718000
2000
radi ono što će dugoročno oštetiti društvo.
12:19
For example, among the Greenland Norse --
189
721000
2000
Na primjer, u kompetitivnom društvu
12:21
a competitive rank society -- what the chiefs really wanted
190
723000
3000
grenlandskih Nordijaca, ono što su poglavice stvarno htjeli
12:24
is more followers and more sheep and more resources
191
726000
2000
jest da imaju više sljedbenika, kao i više ovaca i resursa
12:27
to outcompete the neighboring chiefs. And that led the chiefs
192
729000
3000
da bi prestigli susjedne poglavice. To je navelo poglavice
12:30
to do what's called flogging the land: overstocking the land,
193
732000
4000
da rade ono što nazivamo šibanjem zemlje: njeno preopterećenje
12:34
forcing tenant farmers into dependency. And that made
194
736000
4000
koje je primoralo zemljoradnike na ovisnost. To je
12:38
the chiefs powerful in the short run,
195
740000
4000
poglavice kratkoročno učinilo moćnima,
12:42
but led to the society's collapse in the long run.
196
744000
3000
ali je dovelo do dugoročnog društvenog kolapsa.
12:46
Those same issues of conflicts of interest are acute
197
748000
3000
Isti ti sukobi interesa snažni su
12:49
in the United States today. Especially because
198
751000
3000
u SAD-u danas. Posebno zato
12:52
the decision makers in the United States are frequently
199
754000
3000
što su oni koji u SAD-u donose odluke često
12:56
able to insulate themselves from consequences
200
758000
2000
u mogućnosti izolirati se od posljedica
12:59
by living in gated compounds, by drinking bottled water
201
761000
2000
jer žive u dobro zaštićenim kućama i piju vodu iz boce, itd.
13:02
and so on. And within the last couple of years,
202
764000
3000
U posljednih nekoliko godina,
13:05
it's been obvious that the elite in the business world
203
767000
3000
očito je da elita poslovnog svijeta
13:09
correctly perceive that they can advance
204
771000
2000
ispravno shvaća da može poboljšati
13:11
their short-term interest by doing things that are
205
773000
2000
svoje kratkoročne interese čineći stvari koje su
13:14
good for them but bad for society as a whole,
206
776000
2000
dobre za njih, ali loše za društvo kao cjelinu,
13:16
such as draining a few billion dollars out of Enron
207
778000
3000
kao što su, na primjer, iscrpili nekoliko milijardi dolara iz Enrona
13:19
and other businesses. They are quite correct
208
781000
3000
i ostalih tvrtki. Oni su u pravu
13:23
that these things are good for them in the short term,
209
785000
3000
da su te stvari kratkoročno dobre za njih,
13:26
although bad for society in the long term.
210
788000
2000
iako su dugoročno loše za društvo.
13:29
So, that's one general conclusion about why societies
211
791000
3000
Dakle, to je jedan općenit zaključak o tome zašto društva
13:32
make bad decisions: conflicts of interest.
212
794000
4000
donose loše odluke: zbog sukoba interesa.
13:36
And the other generalization that I want to mention
213
798000
2000
Druga generalizacija koju želim spomenuti
13:40
is that it's particularly hard for a society to make
214
802000
2000
jest da je za društvo posebno teško donositi,
13:42
quote-unquote good decisions when there is a conflict involving
215
804000
6000
citiram, dobre odluke kad postoji sukob između
13:48
strongly held values that are good in many circumstances
216
810000
4000
ustaljenih vrijednosti koje su u mnogim okolnostima dobre,
13:53
but are poor in other circumstances. For example,
217
815000
3000
ali su u drugima ipak loše. Na primjer,
13:56
the Greenland Norse, in this difficult environment,
218
818000
3000
grenlandski su Nordijci u tom surovom okolišu
13:59
were held together for four-and-a-half centuries
219
821000
3000
izdržali zajedno četiri i pol stoljeća,
14:02
by their shared commitment to religion,
220
824000
2000
a držala ih je zajednička posvećenost religiji
14:05
and by their strong social cohesion. But those two things --
221
827000
4000
i snažna društvena povezanst. No, te dvije stvari –
14:09
commitment to religion and strong social cohesion --
222
831000
2000
posvećenost religiji i jaka društvena povezanost –
14:12
also made it difficult for them to change at the end
223
834000
3000
također su im otežale da se na kraju promijene
14:15
and to learn from the Inuit. Or today -- Australia.
224
837000
3000
i da nešto nauče od Inuita. Ili danas, u Australiji.
14:18
One of the things that enabled Australia to survive
225
840000
3000
Jedna od stvari koja je Australiji omogućila da preživi
14:21
in this remote outpost of European civilization
226
843000
3000
250 godina u predziđu europske civilizacije
14:24
for 250 years has been their British identity.
227
846000
4000
bio je britanski identitet.
14:28
But today, their commitment to a British identity
228
850000
4000
Ali danas, njihova odanost britanskom identitetu
14:32
is serving Australians poorly in their need to adapt
229
854000
3000
Australcima slabo koristi kad se trebaju prilagoditi
14:35
to their situation in Asia. So it's particularly difficult
230
857000
4000
situaciji u Aziji. Dakle, posebno je teško
14:39
to change course when the things that get you in trouble
231
861000
4000
promijeniti put kad su stvari zbog kojih ste u problemima
14:43
are the things that are also the source of your strength.
232
865000
3000
istovremeno i izvor vaše snage.
14:47
What's going to be the outcome today?
233
869000
2000
Kakav će danas biti ishod?
14:49
Well, all of us know the dozen sorts of ticking time bombs
234
871000
6000
Svima nam je poznato da u suvremenom svijetu
14:55
going on in the modern world, time bombs that have fuses
235
877000
6000
postoje deseci tempiranih bombi. One imaju fitilj dug
15:01
of a few decades to -- all of them, not more than 50 years,
236
883000
3000
nekoliko desetljeća, ne više od 50 godina,
15:05
and any one of which can do us in; the time bombs of water,
237
887000
4000
i svaka nas može uništiti. Tempirane vodene bombe,
15:10
of soil, of climate change, invasive species,
238
892000
4000
zemljane, klimatske, bombe agresivnih vrsta,
15:14
the photosynthetic ceiling, population problems, toxics, etc., etc. --
239
896000
4000
fotosintetskih maksimuma, problema populacije, toksičnosti itd. itd.,
15:19
listing about 12 of them. And while these time bombs --
240
901000
3000
ima ih oko 12. I dok ove tempirane bombe –
15:23
none of them has a fuse beyond 50 years, and most of them
241
905000
2000
nijedna nema fitilj duži od 50 godina, a većina ima
15:25
have fuses of a few decades -- some of them, in some places,
242
907000
3000
fitilj dug nekoliko desetljeća – neke od njih na nekim mjestima
15:28
have much shorter fuses. At the rate at which we're going now,
243
910000
3000
imaju mnogo kraće fitilje. Ako nastavimo ovim tempom,
15:32
the Philippines will lose all its accessible loggable forest
244
914000
4000
Filipini će izgubiti svu šumu pogodnu za sječu
15:36
within five years. And the Solomon Islands are only
245
918000
2000
za pet godina. Solomonski otoci
15:39
one year away from losing their loggable forest,
246
921000
3000
za godinu će dana izgubiti svoje šume,
15:42
which is their major export. And that's going to be spectacular
247
924000
2000
koje predstavlju njihov najveći izvoz. To će biti strahovito
15:44
for the economy of the Solomons. People often ask me,
248
926000
4000
za gospodarstvo Solomonskih otoka. Ljudi me često pitaju:
15:48
Jared, what's the most important thing that we need to do
249
930000
2000
„Jarede, koja je najvažnija stvar koju moramo poduzeti
15:51
about the world's environmental problems?
250
933000
1000
u vezi sa svjetskim problemima okoliša?"
15:53
And my answer is, the most important thing we need to do
251
935000
2000
Moj je odgovor da je najvažnija stvar koju moramo poduzeti
15:55
is to forget about there being any single thing that is
252
937000
3000
to da zaboravimo da postoji bilo koja jedinstvena stvar koja je
15:58
the most important thing we need to do.
253
940000
1000
najvažnija i koju moramo napraviti.
16:00
Instead, there are a dozen things, any one of which could do us in.
254
942000
3000
Umjesto toga, postoje deseci stvari, od kojih bi nas svaka mogla uništiti.
16:03
And we've got to get them all right, because if we solve 11,
255
945000
3000
Moramo ih sve riješiti kako treba – jer ako ih riješimo 11,
16:06
we fail to solve the 12th -- we're in trouble. For example,
256
948000
3000
a ne uspijemo riješiti dvanaestu, u problemima smo. Na primjer,
16:09
if we solve our problems of water and soil and population,
257
951000
3000
ako riješimo probleme vode, zemljišta i populacije,
16:12
but don't solve our problems of toxics, then we are in trouble.
258
954000
4000
ali ne riješimo probleme toksičnosti – u problemima smo.
16:18
The fact is that our present course is a non-sustainable course,
259
960000
5000
Činjenica jest da je naš trenutni put neodrživ,
16:23
which means, by definition, that it cannot be maintained.
260
965000
3000
što po definiciji znači da ne može biti zadržan.
16:27
And the outcome is going to get resolved within a few decades.
261
969000
6000
A ishod će biti riješen za nekoliko desetljeća.
16:34
That means that those of us in this room who are less than
262
976000
3000
To znači da će oni ovdje prisutni koji imaju manje od
16:37
50 or 60 years old will see how these paradoxes are resolved,
263
979000
4000
50 ili 60 godina vidjeti kako će se ovi paradoksi razriješiti,
16:41
and those of us who are over the age of 60 may not see
264
983000
3000
a oni stariji od 60 godina možda neće vidjeti
16:44
the resolution, but our children and grandchildren certainly will.
265
986000
3000
ishod, ali naša djeca i unuci sigurno hoće.
16:48
The resolution is going to achieve either of two forms:
266
990000
2000
Ishod će dostići jedan od dva oblika:
16:51
either we will resolve these non-sustainable time-fuses
267
993000
4000
ili ćemo riješiti neodržive vremenske fitilje
16:56
in pleasant ways of our own choice by taking remedial action,
268
998000
5000
na ugodne načine po vlastitom izboru i korektivnim mjerama,
17:01
or else these conflicts are going to get settled
269
1003000
3000
ili će se sukobi riješiti
17:04
in unpleasant ways not of our choice -- namely, by war,
270
1006000
3000
na neugodne načine koji neće biti po našem izboru – na primjer ratom,
17:08
disease or starvation. But what's for sure is that our
271
1010000
3000
bolestima ili gladovanjem. No, ono što je sigurno jest da će naš
17:12
non-sustainable course will get resolved in one way or another
272
1014000
2000
neodrživi put biti riješen na ovaj ili onaj način
17:14
in a few decades. In other words, since the theme of this session
273
1016000
4000
za nekoliko desetljeća. Drugim riječima, kako je tema ovog bloka
17:18
is choices, we have a choice. Does that mean that we should
274
1020000
5000
izbor – mi imamo izbora. Znači li to da trebamo biti
17:23
get pessimistic and overwhelmed? I draw the reverse conclusion.
275
1025000
4000
pesimisti i uznemiravati se? Ja sam došao do suprotnog zaključka.
17:28
The big problems facing the world today are not at all
276
1030000
3000
Veliki problemi s kojima smo danas suočeni nisu uopće
17:31
things beyond our control. Our biggest threat is not an asteroid
277
1033000
4000
van naše kontrole. Naša najveća prijetnja nije asteroid
17:35
about to crash into us, something we can do nothing about.
278
1037000
3000
koji će se zabiti u nas – nešto oko čega ne možemo ništa poduzeti.
17:39
Instead, all the major threats facing us today are problems
279
1041000
3000
Umjesto toga, sve današnje velike prijetnje problemi su
17:42
entirely of our own making. And since we made the problems,
280
1044000
4000
koje smo potpuno sami stvorili. A kako smo ih mi stvorili,
17:46
we can also solve the problems. That then means that it's
281
1048000
4000
sami ih možemo i riješiti. To onda znači da je
17:50
entirely in our power to deal with these problems.
282
1052000
3000
rješavanje tih problema u potpunosti u našim rukama.
17:54
In particular, what can all of us do? For those of you
283
1056000
3000
Konkretno, što svi mi možemo učiniti? Za one od vas
17:57
who are interested in these choices, there are lots of things
284
1059000
3000
koji su zainteresirani za ove izbore – ima mnogo stvari
18:00
you can do. There's a lot that we don't understand,
285
1062000
3000
koje možete napraviti. Ima dosta toga što ne razumijemo
18:04
and that we need to understand. And there's a lot that
286
1066000
3000
a što moramo razumjeti. A ima i dosta toga što
18:07
we already do understand, but aren't doing, and that
287
1069000
4000
već razumijemo, ali ne činimo, a što bismo,
18:11
we need to be doing. Thank you.
288
1073000
2000
zapravo, trebali činiti. Hvala vam.
18:13
(Applause)
289
1075000
3000
(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Jared Diamond - Civilization scholarJared Diamond investigates why cultures prosper or decline -- and what we can learn by taking a broad look across many kinds of societies.
Why you should listen
In his books Guns, Germs and Steel and Collapse (and the popular PBS and National Geographic documentaries they inspired), big-picture scholar Jared Diamond explores civilizations and why they all seem to fall. Now in his latest book, The World Until Yesterday, Diamond examines small, traditional, tribal societies -- and suggests that modern civilization is only our latest solution to survival.
Diamond’s background in evolutionary biology, geography and physiology informs his integrated vision of human history. He posits that success -- and failure -- depends on how well societies adapt to their changing environment.
Jared Diamond | Speaker | TED.com