TED2003
Jared Diamond: Why do societies collapse?
贾德·戴蒙：文明社会为何走向崩溃
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为什么有些文明社会会走向崩溃？通过分析铁器时代格林兰岛上的维京部落，荒漠化的复活节岛以及当今的美国蒙大纳州，贾德·戴蒙向我们展示了崩溃的危机离我们有多近，但他同时也乐观的表示，如果我们反应及时，一切都还来得及。
Jared Diamond - Civilization scholar
Jared Diamond investigates why cultures prosper or decline -- and what we can learn by taking a broad look across many kinds of societies. Full bio
Jared Diamond investigates why cultures prosper or decline -- and what we can learn by taking a broad look across many kinds of societies. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:18
I think all of us have been interested, at one time or another,
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社会崩溃之谜，我相信各位都曾对此感过兴趣，
00:22
in the romantic mysteries of all those societies that collapsed,
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那些曾经存在，但后来崩溃的社会，
00:27
such as the classic Maya in the Yucatan, the Easter Islanders,
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如玛雅文明，尤卡坦半岛上的古典玛雅文明，复活节岛文明，
00:32
the Anasazi, Fertile Crescent society, Angor Wat, Great Zimbabwe
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阿纳萨齐文明，新月沃地文明，吴哥文明，大津巴布韦文明等等。
00:36
and so on. And within the last decade or two,
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而在最近的10到20年里，
00:40
archaeologists have shown us that there were environmental problems
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考古学家们向我们展示了导致这些社会崩溃的
00:44
underlying many of these past collapses.
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鲜为人知的的环境原因。
00:47
But there were also plenty of places in the world
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但是这个世界上还有很多地方，
00:48
where societies have been developing for thousands of years
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都有着上千年的历史，
00:52
without any sign of a major collapse,
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却从未有过彻底的崩溃。
00:54
such as Japan, Java, Tonga and Tikopea. So evidently, societies
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譬如：日本、爪哇岛、汤加以及蒂科皮亚。显然，
01:00
in some areas are more fragile than in other areas.
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与其他社会相比，有些社会更加脆弱一些。
01:03
How can we understand what makes some societies more fragile
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我们该如何来理解这一点呢？
01:06
than other societies? The problem is obviously relevant
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显然，这个问题非常有现实意义。
01:12
to our situation today, because today as well, there are
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因为于当下世界同样
01:15
some societies that have already collapsed, such as Somalia
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有一些已经崩溃了的社会，如：索马里、
01:19
and Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia. There are also
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卢旺达和前南斯拉夫。此外，
01:22
societies today that may be close to collapse, such as Nepal, Indonesia and Columbia.
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还有一些行将崩溃的社会，比如：尼泊尔、印度尼西亚、哥伦比亚。
01:27
What about ourselves?
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那么，美国是什么状况呢？
01:30
What is there that we can learn from the past that would help us avoid
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历史上，有这么多的社会或者衰败、或者消亡，
01:36
declining or collapsing in the way that so many past societies have?
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以史为鉴，我们应当如何避免重蹈覆辙呢？
01:41
Obviously the answer to this question is not going
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这个问题的答案显然得从多方面考虑，
01:43
to be a single factor. If anyone tells you that there is a single-factor
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如果有人告诉你：“这些社会会崩溃，只有一个方面的原因。”
01:47
explanation for societal collapses, you know right away
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那么你应该马上反应过来，
01:50
that they're an idiot. This is a complex subject.
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这人是个傻子。毕竟，这是个非常复杂的问题。
01:54
But how can we make sense out of the complexities of this subject?
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那么我们该如何来理清头绪呢？
01:58
In analyzing societal collapses, I've arrived at a
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在分析社会崩溃的过程中，我设计出了一个
02:01
five-point framework -- a checklist of things that I go through
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“五点架构”：这其实是个清单，枚举了我为了解释社会崩溃之谜
02:05
to try and understand collapses. And I'll illustrate that five-point
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而考虑的每一个因素。下面，我将通过分析格陵兰岛上的维京部落的消亡
02:10
framework by the extinction of the Greenland Norse society.
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来阐释这个“五点构架”。
02:15
This is a European society with literate records,
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这是一个留有文字史料的欧洲社会，
02:18
so we know a good deal about the people and their motivation.
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所以我们可以充分理解那里的人和他们的动机。
02:22
In AD 984 Vikings went out to Greenland, settled Greenland,
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公元984年，一群维京海盗登陆格林兰岛并随后定居下来。
02:26
and around 1450 they died out -- the society collapsed,
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到1450年，整个社会崩溃，
02:30
and every one of them ended up dead.
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最终，他们灭绝了。
02:32
Why did they all end up dead? Well, in my five-point framework,
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他们怎么就全灭绝了呢？嗯，在我的“五点构架”中，
02:36
the first item on the framework is to look for human impacts
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第一点是：人对环境的影响。
02:40
on the environment: people inadvertently destroying the resource
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因为大意，人们毁掉了他们赖以生存的资源。
02:43
base on which they depend. And in the case of the Viking Norse,
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在这个具体的案例中，
02:48
the Vikings inadvertently caused soil erosion and deforestation,
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维京人由于大意导致了土壤侵蚀和森林荒漠化，
02:53
which was a particular problem for them because
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而之所以造成了麻烦是因为
02:56
they required forests to make charcoal, to make iron.
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他们需要树木来制成木炭，再用木炭冶铁。
02:59
So they ended up an Iron Age European society, virtually
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因此虽然他们是铁器时代的欧洲社会，但当他们崩溃时，
03:03
unable to make their own iron. A second item on my checklist is
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他们已经不能冶炼铁器了。在清单上的第二点是：
03:08
climate change. Climate can get warmer or colder or dryer or wetter.
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气候变化：或变暖、或变冷、或变干、或变湿。
03:14
In the case of the Vikings -- in Greenland, the climate got colder
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在这个案例中，14世纪晚期，尤其是15世纪，
03:18
in the late 1300s, and especially in the 1400s. But a cold climate
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气候变冷。但寒冷的气候并不是决定性的因素，
03:22
isn't necessarily fatal, because the Inuit -- the Eskimos inhabiting
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理由是当时爱斯基摩人同样住在格林兰岛上，
03:27
Greenland at the same time -- did better, rather than worse,
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面对变冷的气候，他们的表现就挺不错的。
03:29
with cold climates. So why didn't the Greenland Norse as well?
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那么，为什么维京人没能做到呢？
03:33
The third thing on my checklist is relations with neighboring
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在我的清单上的第三点是：
03:37
friendly societies that may prop up a society. And if that
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与周边友邦的关系，这些友邦可以提供必要的援助。
03:41
friendly support is pulled away, that may make a society
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而一旦这种来自友邦的援助终止，通常会使
03:44
more likely to collapse. In the case of the Greenland Norse,
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这个社会崩溃。在这个案例中，
03:48
they had trade with the mother country -- Norway --
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他们一直在与母邦，挪威，进行贸易往来，
03:50
and that trade dwindled: partly because Norway got weaker,
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然而，一方面因为挪威逐渐衰弱，
03:54
partly because of sea ice between Greenland and Norway.
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一方面因为两地航道间的海水渐渐结冰，这种贸易与日俱减。
03:59
The fourth item on my checklist is relations with hostile societies.
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在我清单上的第四点是：与敌国的关系。
04:05
In the case of Norse Greenland, the hostiles were the Inuit --
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在这个案例中，他们的敌国是因纽特人
04:08
the Eskimos sharing Greenland -- with whom the Norse
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以及爱斯基摩人，他们与维京人是格林兰岛上的“室友”，
04:12
got off to bad relationships. And we know that the Inuit
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但他们并不遭维京人待见。而且我们知道，
04:16
killed the Norse and, probably of greater importance,
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他们有时会屠戮维京人，此外，可能更重要的是，
04:19
may have blocked access to the outer fjords, on which
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他们挡住了维京人到出海口的路，
04:23
the Norse depended for seals at a critical time of the year.
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而每年的特定季节，维京人是需要通过这个峡湾出海捕猎海豹的。
04:27
And then finally, the fifth item on my checklist is the political,
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最后，在我的清单上的第五点：
04:31
economic, social and cultural factors in the society that make it
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一个社会的政治、经济、社会和文化因素，
04:35
more or less likely that the society will perceive and solve its
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这些因素能促使一个社会意识到并解决它所遇到的环境问题。
04:39
environmental problems. In the case of the Greenland Norse,
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在这个案例中，
04:44
cultural factors that made it difficult for them
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因为文化的原因，维京人很难解决遇到的问题，具体而言：
04:46
to solve their problems were: their commitments to a
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维京人是信仰基督教的，
04:49
Christian society investing heavily in cathedrals; their being
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他们将大量的人力物力花费在建筑大教堂上；此外，
04:53
a competitive-ranked chiefly society; and their scorn for the Inuit,
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作为一个极其争强好胜的社会，他们瞧不起因纽特人，
04:59
from whom they refused to learn. So that's how the five-part
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因此他们拒绝师夷长技。综上，这就是“五点构架”
05:02
framework is relevant to the collapse and eventual extinction of the Greenland Norse.
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如何解释社会崩溃的以及格林兰岛上维京人消亡的原因。
05:07
What about a society today?
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那么当今的社会又是如何的呢？
05:10
For the past five years, I've been taking my wife and kids to
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过去的5年里，我和我的家人造访了蒙大纳州的西南部，
05:14
Southwestern Montana, where I worked as a teenager
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在那里，每当干草收割时，
05:17
on the hay harvest. And Montana, at first sight, seems
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我像个年轻人一样干活。乍一看，
05:21
like the most pristine environment in the United States.
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蒙大纳州貌似是全美境内环境最自然的州。
05:24
But scratch the surface, and Montana suffers from serious problems.
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但深入研究后，会发现其实它也面临着许多严重的问题。
05:29
Going through the same checklist: human environmental impacts?
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同样用我的“五点架构”法来检验。第一点：人类对环境的影响。
05:33
Yes, acute in Montana. Toxic problems from mine waste
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是的，这种影响在蒙大纳州极为严重。
05:38
have caused damage of billions of dollars.
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为解决废矿产生的有毒物质问题，已耗费了数十亿美元。
05:41
Problems from weeds, weed control, cost Montana nearly
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而为了除去杂草，以及控制其扩散，蒙大纳州每年几乎都要花费
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200 million dollars a year. Montana has lost agricultural areas
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2亿美元。此外，蒙大纳州的可耕土壤面积还不断在减少，
05:48
from salinization, problems of forest management,
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原因包括：土壤盐碱化、森林管理失调
05:52
problems of forest fires. Second item on my checklist:
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以及森林大火问题等。接着考虑我的清单上的第二点：
05:56
climate change. Yes -- the climate in Montana is getting warmer
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气候变化：是的，蒙大纳州的气候逐渐变得更加干热，
05:59
and drier, but Montana agriculture depends especially on irrigation
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蒙大纳州的农业主要是依靠雪水灌溉，
06:03
from the snow pack, and as the snow is melting -- for example,
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因为气候变暖，雪水渐渐消融，我们可以看到，
06:07
as the glaciers in Glacier National Park are disappearing --
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国家冰河公园的冰川正在逐渐消失，
06:10
that's bad news for Montana irrigation agriculture.
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这对蒙大纳州的农业来说，绝对是个十足的噩耗。
06:14
Third thing on my checklist: relations with friendlies
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我的清单上的第三点：与可以提供援助的友邻的关系。
06:16
that can sustain the society. In Montana today, more than half of
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在当今的蒙大纳州，居民收入的一半以上
06:20
the income of Montana is not earned within Montana,
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都不是产生于州内，
06:24
but is derived from out of state: transfer payments from
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而是源自于州外，主要包括：
06:27
social security, investments and so on --
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社会保险的款项转账，各界的投资等等。
06:30
which makes Montana vulnerable to the rest of the United States.
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这就使得蒙大纳州成为了美国最脆弱的州之一。
06:34
Fourth: relations with hostiles. Montanans have the same problems
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第四点：与敌国的关系。这一点上，蒙大纳州面临的问题
06:38
as do all Americans, in being sensitive to problems
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与其他州一样，都受到海外反美势力的威胁，
06:42
created by hostiles overseas affecting our oil supplies,
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在一些问题上尤为敏感：如干扰我们的石油供应，
06:46
and terrorist attacks. And finally, last item on my checklist:
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恐怖袭击等等。最后，在我清单上的最后一点：
06:52
question of how political, economic, social, cultural attitudes
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一个社会的政治、经济、社会和文化因素如何来解决
06:55
play into this. Montanans have long-held values, which today
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其所遇到的问题。蒙大纳州一致奉行“长期持有”的观点
07:00
seem to be getting in the way of their solving their own problems.
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如今似乎正在妨碍他们解决所遇到的问题。
07:03
Long-held devotion to logging and to mines and to agriculture,
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“长期持有”的价值观致力于伐木、采矿以及种植、
07:07
and to no government regulation; values that worked well
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以及非政府管理。这一价值观
07:11
in the past, but they don't seem to be working well today.
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在过去对他们经济发展的帮助成效显著，但如今却似乎难以奏效。
07:15
So, I'm looking at these issues of collapses
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当我在思考社会崩溃的问题时，
07:17
for a lot of past societies and for many present societies.
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不管是过去的或是当下的社会，
07:22
Are there any general conclusions that arise?
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我不禁问自己，我能得到什么普适性的结论么？
07:24
In a way, just like Tolstoy's statement about every unhappy marriage
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在某种程度上，正如托尔斯泰所言：不幸的家庭各有各的不幸。
07:29
being different, every collapsed or endangered society is different --
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同样的道理，每一个崩溃或者行将崩溃的社会都是不同的。
07:32
they all have different details. But nevertheless, there are certain
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它们的崩溃各有各的原因。尽管如此，
07:36
common threads that emerge from these comparisons
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我们还是可以得到一些共识的，通过对比
07:39
of past societies that did or did not collapse
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历史上那些崩溃了和没有崩溃的社会，
07:42
and threatened societies today. One interesting common thread
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这些共识于今也有借鉴意义。在众多社会崩溃的案例中，
07:49
has to do with, in many cases, the rapidity of collapse
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可以发现一个有趣的相似点：这个社会发展到其鼎盛时期，
07:53
after a society reaches its peak. There are many societies
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突然急转直下，然后崩溃。历史上，许多社会的发展轨迹
07:57
that don't wind down gradually, but they build up -- get richer
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并不是逐渐衰弱然后消亡，而是国力逐渐强盛，
08:00
and more powerful -- and then within a short time, within a few decades
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势力逐渐扩大，最后达到鼎盛期。突然，在一个极短的时间里，
08:04
after their peak, they collapse. For example,
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如几十年间，他们就崩溃了。比如说，
08:06
the classic lowland Maya of the Yucatan began to collapse in the
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尤卡坦半岛的低地古典玛雅，他们崩溃于
08:12
early 800s -- literally a few decades after the Maya were building
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9世纪早期，而正是在此之前的数十年，玛雅人
08:15
their biggest monuments, and Maya population was greatest.
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完成了他们最大的纪念碑，而且，人口数量也达到了史上最多。
08:20
Or again, the collapse of the Soviet Union took place
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同样的，苏联的崩溃亦然。
08:23
within a couple of decades, maybe within a decade, of the time
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在苏联崩溃的前几十年，甚至可能仅仅在其前10年，
08:27
when the Soviet Union was at its greatest power.
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他们还处于史上最辉煌的时期。
08:30
An analogue would be the growth of bacteria in a petri dish.
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有一个现象倒是与此种情形很相似：培养皿中细菌数量的增加曲线
08:35
These rapid collapses are especially likely where there's
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这些社会之所以暴毙，极有可能是因为
08:38
a mismatch between available resources and resource consumption,
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他们能够获取的资源已无法满足他们的需求，
08:43
or a mismatch between economic outlays and economic potential.
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或者他们在经济上入不敷出。
08:47
In a petri dish, bacteria grow. Say they double every generation,
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在培养皿中，细菌繁殖。每隔一代，数目翻倍，
08:52
and five generations before the end the petri dish is 15/16ths empty,
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只需五代，便告终结。起初，培养皿会有15/16的空白区域，
08:57
and then the next generation's 3/4ths empty, and the next generation
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而一代之后，只剩下3/4的空间，再下一代，
09:01
half empty. Within one generation after the petri dish still
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只有一半。当培养皿还有一半空间时，只需要再有一代，
09:05
being half empty, it is full. There's no more food and the bacteria have collapsed.
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培养皿就被占满了。因为没有了更多的食物来源，这个细菌社会于是崩溃。
09:10
So, this is a frequent theme:
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由此可见，在短时间内，
09:12
societies collapse very soon after reaching their peak in power.
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一个社会由盛转衰继而消亡的现象是很常见的。
09:17
What it means to put it mathematically is that, if you're concerned
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这个现象用数学思维可以这样理解：如果你要考虑一个当今的社会，
09:19
about a society today, you should be looking not at the value
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你最该关心的并不应该是这个数学函数的值，
09:24
of the mathematical function -- the wealth itself -- but you should
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具体而言，即一个社会的GDP；你应该留意的，
09:27
be looking at the first derivative and the second derivatives
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应该是这个函数的一阶导以及二阶导。
09:30
of the function. That's one general theme. A second general theme
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以上便是得到的崩溃社会的共性之一。其二，
09:35
is that there are many, often subtle environmental factors that make
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总是会有许多微妙的环境因素使得
09:40
some societies more fragile than others. Many of those factors
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一些社会较之其他更为脆弱，而这些环境因素
09:44
are not well understood. For example, why is it that in the Pacific,
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目前我们尚未能完全理解。比如说，为何在太平洋中，
09:48
of those hundreds of Pacific islands, why did Easter Island end up as
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在数以百计的岛屿中，只有复活节岛
09:52
the most devastating case of complete deforestation?
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因为彻底的森林荒漠化而完全荒芜继而消亡？
09:56
It turns out that there were about nine different environmental
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结论是这大约涉及到了9种不同的环境因子，
09:59
factors -- some, rather subtle ones -- that were working against
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每一种都异常微妙，这些因子都给复活节岛带来了
10:03
the Easter Islanders, and they involve fallout of volcanic tephra,
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消极的影响，这些因子涉及火山喷发产生的沉降物，
10:08
latitude, rainfall. Perhaps the most subtle of them
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所在地的纬度以及降雨量。也许这些因子中最微妙的一个，
10:11
is that it turns out that a major input of nutrients
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是沉降在岛屿上的那些主要来自亚洲的大陆尘埃，
10:14
which protects island environments in the Pacific is from
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这些尘埃，附带着大量的营养物质，
10:18
the fallout of continental dust from central Asia.
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而正是这些营养物质，保护着太平洋上这些岛屿的生态环境。
10:21
Easter, of all Pacific islands, has the least input of dust
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在恢复土壤肥力的过程中，所有太平洋的岛屿都能从来自亚洲的大陆尘埃获利，
10:25
from Asia restoring the fertility of its soils. But that's
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但唯有复活节岛，因为距离原因，获利最少。
10:29
a factor that we didn't even appreciate until 1999.
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这一现象，我们居然一直到1999年，才开始察觉。
10:34
So, some societies, for subtle environmental reasons,
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所以说，有一些社会，由于这些微妙的环境因子，
10:36
are more fragile than others. And then finally,
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比其他社会更加脆弱。最后，
10:39
another generalization. I'm now teaching a course
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我将阐述第三个共识。 因为目前不才正执教于
10:42
at UCLA, to UCLA undergraduates, on these collapses
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加州大学洛杉矶分校，给那里的本科生们讲授关于社会崩溃的课程。
10:45
of societies. What really bugs my UCLA undergraduate students is,
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课堂上，最让我的这群学生们迷惑不解的事情是，
10:49
how on earth did these societies not see what they were doing?
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这些社会怎么就没有发现他们在自寻死路？
10:52
How could the Easter Islanders have deforested their environment?
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那些复活节岛上的居民怎么忍心砍尽森林，毁灭自己的家园？
10:55
What did they say when they were cutting down the last palm tree?
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当他们砍倒最后一刻棕榈树时，他们是什么感觉？
10:59
Didn't they see what they were doing? How could societies
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难道他们不知道自己在干什么吗？
11:02
not perceive their impacts on the environments and stop in time?
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那些社会怎么可能没有察觉到自己对环境的影响，进而悬崖勒马？
11:07
And I would expect that, if our human civilization carries on,
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我想，答案应该是这样的：假设我们的文明能够延续下去，
11:14
then maybe in the next century people will be asking,
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那么也许到了下一个世纪，那时的人们同样会好奇：
11:17
why on earth did these people today in the year 2003 not see
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那帮生活在2003年的人怎么可能没有注意到 （注：2003年为此篇的演讲时间）
11:21
the obvious things that they were doing and take corrective action?
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他们所犯下的如此明显的错误，他们怎么就不迷途知返？
11:25
It seems incredible in the past. In the future, it'll seem
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回顾历史，我们发现那帮人不可理喻。但在后人看来，
11:28
incredible what we are doing today. And so I've been
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我们似乎同样也不可理喻。鉴于此，
11:31
trying to develop a hierarchical set of considerations
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我尝试着分析出了了几个理由
11:36
about why societies fail to solve their problems --
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来解释为什么这些社会没能处理好他们面临的问题。
11:40
why they fail to perceive the problems or, if they perceive them,
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为什么他们没有意识到问题的存在？或者意识到了，
11:42
why they fail to tackle them. Or, if they tackle them,
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却没能解决问题？或者，如果他们没能解决问题 （译者注：这句话可能是演讲人口误，符合逻辑的表达可能是 “如果他们起初能很好的处理这一问题”）
11:45
why do they fail to succeed in solving them?
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为什么他们没能将这种势头保持下去？
11:48
I'll just mention two generalizations in this area.
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就这一问题，我只简单的概括两点原因。
11:52
One blueprint for trouble, making collapse likely,
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一个可能导致社会崩溃的困境是：利益冲突
11:55
is where there is a conflict of interest between the short-term
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短期利益与长期利益的冲突。
11:58
interest of the decision-making elites and the long-term
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这里是指决策制定者的短期利益与整个社会的长期利益相冲突，
12:02
interest of the society as a whole, especially if the elites
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尤其是当执行了这一不明智的政策后，社会整体利益受损时，
12:06
are able to insulate themselves from the consequences
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政策制定者们可以置身事外的情形下。
12:08
of their actions. Where what's good in the short run for the elite
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当某一决策可能最终造成整个社会的悲剧，但短期内政策制定者却可以从中获利时，
12:12
is bad for the society as a whole, there's a real risk of the elite
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他们极有可能鼠目寸光，推行这一极具风险的决策。
12:16
doing things that would bring the society down in the long run.
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短视的主事者，就会把这个社会带向崩溃。
12:19
For example, among the Greenland Norse --
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举例而言，在格林兰岛的维京人，
12:21
a competitive rank society -- what the chiefs really wanted
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那是一个极其争强好胜的社会，那个社会的首领们最想要的，
12:24
is more followers and more sheep and more resources
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是更多的子民，更多的羊群和更多的资源，多多益善，
12:27
to outcompete the neighboring chiefs. And that led the chiefs
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直到这些的数量超过了相邻部落的首领。这一风气的驱使下，
12:30
to do what's called flogging the land: overstocking the land,
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首领们纷纷行动，后世称之为“刮地皮”：他们过度积压土地，
12:34
forcing tenant farmers into dependency. And that made
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强迫土地租用人成为附庸。这些举措，
12:38
the chiefs powerful in the short run,
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短期内是使首领们的势力大为增加，
12:42
but led to the society's collapse in the long run.
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但却为随后整个社会的崩溃埋下祸根。
12:46
Those same issues of conflicts of interest are acute
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这两种利益的冲突在今天的美国
12:49
in the United States today. Especially because
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同样非常剧烈。特别是考虑到
12:52
the decision makers in the United States are frequently
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如今美国的政策制定者们通常
12:56
able to insulate themselves from consequences
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可以置身事外。不管外面世界因为他们制定的政策发生了什么，
12:59
by living in gated compounds, by drinking bottled water
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他们都能安稳生活在有栅栏的院子里，喝着纯净水，
13:02
and so on. And within the last couple of years,
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悠哉游哉，高枕无忧。在最近的10多年里，
13:05
it's been obvious that the elite in the business world
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很明显的事实是：那些商业世界的精英们，
13:09
correctly perceive that they can advance
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察觉到了他们可以通过一些事情来短期获利，
13:11
their short-term interest by doing things that are
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尽管这些事情虽然可以给他们带来利益，
13:14
good for them but bad for society as a whole,
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但终将给整个社会带来灾难。
13:16
such as draining a few billion dollars out of Enron
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比如在伊朗问题上砸下数十亿美元，
13:19
and other businesses. They are quite correct
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或者类似的决策。这样的事情，
13:23
that these things are good for them in the short term,
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倒是的确对他们的短期利益很有帮助，
13:26
although bad for society in the long term.
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然而长远点看，这在未来将危害到整个社会。
13:29
So, that's one general conclusion about why societies
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综上，这就是关于为何有的社会会做出
13:32
make bad decisions: conflicts of interest.
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愚蠢决策的概括之一：利益冲突。
13:36
And the other generalization that I want to mention
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我要概括的第二点是，
13:40
is that it's particularly hard for a society to make
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就一个社会而言，有时的确很难制定出、或者照搬
13:42
quote-unquote good decisions when there is a conflict involving
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一些恰当的决策，尤其是当涉及到
13:48
strongly held values that are good in many circumstances
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根深蒂固的价值观时。有时，这种坚定的价值观是必须的，
13:53
but are poor in other circumstances. For example,
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但有时，却也是不合时宜的。比如说，
13:56
the Greenland Norse, in this difficult environment,
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格林兰岛上的维京人，早期，他们的生存环境极为恶劣，
13:59
were held together for four-and-a-half centuries
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之所以他们能相互扶持，顽强的持续4个半世纪，
14:02
by their shared commitment to religion,
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那是因为他们有着共同的信仰，
14:05
and by their strong social cohesion. But those two things --
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以及巨大的凝聚力。但恰恰正是因为这两个原因：
14:09
commitment to religion and strong social cohesion --
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宗教信仰以及社会凝聚力，
14:12
also made it difficult for them to change at the end
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导致了他们最后很难去做出改变，
14:15
and to learn from the Inuit. Or today -- Australia.
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以及向因纽特人学习。另外一个例子：澳大利亚。
14:18
One of the things that enabled Australia to survive
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澳大利亚之所以生存并能够持续发展，
14:21
in this remote outpost of European civilization
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即使它在地理位置上远离欧洲文明，
14:24
for 250 years has been their British identity.
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那是因为250年来，他们一直是大不列颠的属国。
14:28
But today, their commitment to a British identity
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但如今，他们的这种身份，
14:32
is serving Australians poorly in their need to adapt
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却使得自己很难去适应他们在
14:35
to their situation in Asia. So it's particularly difficult
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亚洲的地位。因此，这的确是个艰难的转变过程：
14:39
to change course when the things that get you in trouble
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意识到那些给你带来麻烦的事情，
14:43
are the things that are also the source of your strength.
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正是之前你力量的来源。
14:47
What's going to be the outcome today?
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当今社会可能会走向何方呢？
14:49
Well, all of us know the dozen sorts of ticking time bombs
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嗯，我们都知道，当今世界上，数十种可能导致社会崩溃的“定时炸弹”
14:55
going on in the modern world, time bombs that have fuses
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正在滴答滴答的走着。这些“定时炸弹”大都是
15:01
of a few decades to -- all of them, not more than 50 years,
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最近数十年被“点燃”的，而最早的，不会超过50年。
15:05
and any one of which can do us in; the time bombs of water,
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但其中每一个，都能让我们万劫不复。比方说：水资源、
15:10
of soil, of climate change, invasive species,
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土壤问题、气候变化、外来物种入侵、
15:14
the photosynthetic ceiling, population problems, toxics, etc., etc. --
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光合上限问题、人口问题、有毒物质等等、等等。
15:19
listing about 12 of them. And while these time bombs --
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一共有将近12个。如前所述，这些“定时炸弹”
15:23
none of them has a fuse beyond 50 years, and most of them
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几乎都是近50年以来才产生的，而且其中大多数
15:25
have fuses of a few decades -- some of them, in some places,
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是近几十年才有的。有些地方
15:28
have much shorter fuses. At the rate at which we're going now,
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甚至更近几年才有的。按照目前这个趋势，
15:32
the Philippines will lose all its accessible loggable forest
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菲律宾耗尽他们可供砍伐的森林，
15:36
within five years. And the Solomon Islands are only
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只需要5年时间；而所罗门群岛，
15:39
one year away from losing their loggable forest,
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只需要1年时间，
15:42
which is their major export. And that's going to be spectacular
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而木材，正是他们的主要出口物。这无疑对
15:44
for the economy of the Solomons. People often ask me,
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所罗门群岛的经济是毁灭性的打击。人们常常问我，
15:48
Jared, what's the most important thing that we need to do
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贾德，为了拯救地球，对于生态环境的恶化，
15:51
about the world's environmental problems?
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当务之急，我们最应该做的一件事情是什么？
15:53
And my answer is, the most important thing we need to do
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我的答案通常是：我们最应该做的一件事情是，
15:55
is to forget about there being any single thing that is
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放弃这个天真的想法：认为我们只需要做好最应该做好的那一件事，
15:58
the most important thing we need to do.
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就可以把整个问题解决。
16:00
Instead, there are a dozen things, any one of which could do us in.
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毕竟我们面临着一打问题，而每一个，都是致命的。
16:03
And we've got to get them all right, because if we solve 11,
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我们必须将它们全部解决，要不然，就算我们成功解决了11个，
16:06
we fail to solve the 12th -- we're in trouble. For example,
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还剩下第12个，我们同样得完蛋。举例来说，
16:09
if we solve our problems of water and soil and population,
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如果我们解决了水资源问题、土壤问题以及人口问题，
16:12
but don't solve our problems of toxics, then we are in trouble.
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但没能解决有毒物质的问题，我们还是得陷入麻烦。
16:18
The fact is that our present course is a non-sustainable course,
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事实上，我们现在正处于不稳定阶段，
16:23
which means, by definition, that it cannot be maintained.
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这就是说，理论上讲，这种状态不可能长久的。
16:27
And the outcome is going to get resolved within a few decades.
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在未来的数十年间，这些问题终将被解决。
16:34
That means that those of us in this room who are less than
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这就是说，现在正在观看我这个演讲的人中，
16:37
50 or 60 years old will see how these paradoxes are resolved,
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那些五六十岁以下的人，将有幸看到这些矛盾被解决，
16:41
and those of us who are over the age of 60 may not see
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而那些超过60岁的人，比如说我，可能就不能亲眼目睹了，
16:44
the resolution, but our children and grandchildren certainly will.
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不过我们的孩子，或者孙子们肯定可以见证这一刻。
16:48
The resolution is going to achieve either of two forms:
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这些问题将会可能有两种解决形式：
16:51
either we will resolve these non-sustainable time-fuses
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一种是：我们通过一些温和的方式来停止这一不稳定状态，
16:56
in pleasant ways of our own choice by taking remedial action,
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比如说主动采取一些矫正措施；
17:01
or else these conflicts are going to get settled
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或者是，这些冲突会通过一些
17:04
in unpleasant ways not of our choice -- namely, by war,
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非我们意志所能改变的方式被解决，即战争、
17:08
disease or starvation. But what's for sure is that our
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疾病或者饥荒。可以肯定的是，
17:12
non-sustainable course will get resolved in one way or another
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这一不稳定状态在未来数十年间会结束，通过这样或那样的方法。
17:14
in a few decades. In other words, since the theme of this session
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换言之，既然这个系列的主题是
17:18
is choices, we have a choice. Does that mean that we should
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“选择”，我们还有得选。之前的分析是不是意味着
17:23
get pessimistic and overwhelmed? I draw the reverse conclusion.
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一切已经无济于事，我们只能悲观以对呢？我认为，恰恰相反。
17:28
The big problems facing the world today are not at all
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当今世界面临着的那些大的问题一点都没有
17:31
things beyond our control. Our biggest threat is not an asteroid
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超出我们的控制范围。毕竟，我们面对的最大威胁并不是
17:35
about to crash into us, something we can do nothing about.
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小行星撞地球，如果是那样，我们倒的确只能坐以待毙。
17:39
Instead, all the major threats facing us today are problems
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相反的，当今我们所面临的所有重大威胁，
17:42
entirely of our own making. And since we made the problems,
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其实都是自找的。既然我们能制造出这些问题，
17:46
we can also solve the problems. That then means that it's
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我们其实也能解决这些问题。这就是说，
17:50
entirely in our power to deal with these problems.
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靠我们的力量，足以应付这些麻烦。
17:54
In particular, what can all of us do? For those of you
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具体而言，我们可以做些什么呢？
17:57
who are interested in these choices, there are lots of things
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对于那些相信“我们的选择可以改变未来”的人而言，你们能做的
18:00
you can do. There's a lot that we don't understand,
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有很多。有许多事情我们现在并不清楚，
18:04
and that we need to understand. And there's a lot that
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但这些事很重要，我们一定得弄清楚；还有许多事情，
18:07
we already do understand, but aren't doing, and that
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虽然我们已经弄明白了，但还没有来得及着手去做，
18:11
we need to be doing. Thank you.
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时不待我，诸君共勉。谢谢!
18:13
(Applause)
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(掌声)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Jared Diamond - Civilization scholarJared Diamond investigates why cultures prosper or decline -- and what we can learn by taking a broad look across many kinds of societies.
Why you should listen
In his books Guns, Germs and Steel and Collapse (and the popular PBS and National Geographic documentaries they inspired), big-picture scholar Jared Diamond explores civilizations and why they all seem to fall. Now in his latest book, The World Until Yesterday, Diamond examines small, traditional, tribal societies -- and suggests that modern civilization is only our latest solution to survival.
Diamond’s background in evolutionary biology, geography and physiology informs his integrated vision of human history. He posits that success -- and failure -- depends on how well societies adapt to their changing environment.
Jared Diamond | Speaker | TED.com