TEDGlobal 2012
Max Little: A test for Parkinson's with a phone call
Maks Litl (Max Little): Test za Parkinsonovu bolest putem telefonskog poziva
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Širom sveta 6,3 miliona ljudi pati od Parkinsonove bolesti, uzrokujući slabost i drhtavice, ali ne postoji objektivan način za rano otkrivanje iste. Za sad. Matematičar primenjene matematike i TED Fellow Maks Litl testira jedan jednostavan, jeftin alat koji je sposoban da otkrije Parkinsonovu bolest sa tačnošću od 99% - putem poziva od 30 sekundi sa mobilnog telefona.
Max Little - Applied mathematician
Max Little is a mathematician whose research includes a breakthrough technique to monitor – and potentially screen for – Parkinson's disease through simple voice recordings. Full bio
Max Little is a mathematician whose research includes a breakthrough technique to monitor – and potentially screen for – Parkinson's disease through simple voice recordings. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
So, well, I do applied math,
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Dakle, bavim se
primenjenom matematikom
primenjenom matematikom
00:18
and this is a peculiar problem
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i svojstven problem
00:20
for anyone who does applied math, is that
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za svakoga ko se
bavi primenjenom matematikom, je taj
bavi primenjenom matematikom, je taj
00:22
we are like management consultants.
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da smo mi kao konsultanti
u oblasti menedžmenta.
u oblasti menedžmenta.
00:24
No one knows what the hell we do.
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Niko ne zna šta
dovraga radimo.
dovraga radimo.
00:26
So I am going to give you some -- attempt today
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Dakle, daću vam neke
-- pokušaću danas
-- pokušaću danas
00:28
to try and explain to you what I do.
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da vam objasnim šta radim.
00:30
So, dancing is one of the most human of activities.
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Dakle, ples je jedna od
najljudskijih aktivnosti.
najljudskijih aktivnosti.
00:34
We delight at ballet virtuosos and tap dancers
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Uživamo u virtuozima
baleta i plesačima stepa
baleta i plesačima stepa
00:37
you will see later on.
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koje ćete videti kasnije.
00:38
Now, ballet requires an extraordinary level of expertise
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E sad, balet zahteva izvanredan
nivo stručnosti
nivo stručnosti
00:41
and a high level of skill,
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i visok nivo umeća,
00:44
and probably a level of initial suitability
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i verovatno određeni
nivo predodređenosti
nivo predodređenosti
00:47
that may well have a genetic component to it.
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koji je vrlo verovatno
sakriven u genima.
sakriven u genima.
00:48
Now, sadly, neurological disorders such as Parkinson's disease
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Nažalost, poremećaji nervnog sistema
kao što je Parkinsonova bolest
kao što je Parkinsonova bolest
00:52
gradually destroy this extraordinary ability,
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postepeno uništavaju ovu
izvanrednu sposobnost,
izvanrednu sposobnost,
00:54
as it is doing to my friend Jan Stripling, who was
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kao što to čini mom prijatelju
Jan Striplingu, koji je bio
Jan Striplingu, koji je bio
00:56
a virtuoso ballet dancer in his time.
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virtuoz baleta u svoje vreme.
00:59
So great progress and treatment has been made over the years.
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Važan napredak je učinjen
svih ovih godina.
svih ovih godina.
01:02
However, there are 6.3 million people worldwide
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I pored toga, 6,3 miliona ljudi
širom sveta
širom sveta
01:05
who have the disease, and they have to live with
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ima ovu bolest
i mora da živi sa
i mora da živi sa
01:09
incurable weakness, tremor, rigidity
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neizlečivom slabošću,
drhtavicom, ukočenošću
drhtavicom, ukočenošću
01:11
and the other symptoms that go along with the disease,
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i ostalim simptomima
koji prate ovu bolest,
koji prate ovu bolest,
01:13
so what we need are objective tools
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dakle ono što nam je potrebno
jesu objektivni alati
jesu objektivni alati
01:15
to detect the disease before it's too late.
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da prepoznamo bolest
pre nego što bi bilo kasno.
pre nego što bi bilo kasno.
01:19
We need to be able to measure progression objectively,
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Moramo biti sposobni da
objektivno odredimo napredovanje,
objektivno odredimo napredovanje,
01:21
and ultimately, the only way we're going to know
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i na kraju krajeva,
jedini način da znamo
jedini način da znamo
01:24
when we actually have a cure is when we have
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da zapravo imamo lek je da posedujemo
01:26
an objective measure that can answer that for sure.
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objektivne mere koje mogu
sigurno odgovoriti na to.
sigurno odgovoriti na to.
01:30
But frustratingly, with Parkinson's disease
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Ali frustrirajuće je to što
kod Parkinsonove bolesti
kod Parkinsonove bolesti
01:33
and other movement disorders, there are no biomarkers,
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i ostalih poremećaja kretanja,
ne postoje nikakvi biomarkeri,
ne postoje nikakvi biomarkeri,
01:35
so there's no simple blood test that you can do,
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ne postoji običan test krvi
koje možete uraditi,
koje možete uraditi,
01:37
and the best that we have is like
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i najbolje što imamo je
01:39
this 20-minute neurologist test.
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ovaj test nervnog sistema
od 20 minuta.
od 20 minuta.
01:41
You have to go to the clinic to do it. It's very, very costly,
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Morate uraditi taj test u klinici.
Veoma,veoma je skup,
Veoma,veoma je skup,
01:44
and that means that, outside the clinical trials,
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i to znači da,
van kliničkih ispitivanja
van kliničkih ispitivanja
01:47
it's just never done. It's never done.
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nikad se ne sprovodi.
Nikad.
Nikad.
01:49
But what if patients could do this test at home?
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Ali šta ako bi pacijent mogli
da urade test kod kuće?
da urade test kod kuće?
01:52
Now, that would actually save on a difficult trip to the clinic,
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Tako bi ih zapravo poštedeli
teškog puta do klinike,
teškog puta do klinike,
01:54
and what if patients could do that test themselves, right?
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i šta kad bi sami mogli
da urade test, zar ne?
da urade test, zar ne?
01:59
No expensive staff time required.
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Ne zahteva vreme skupog osoblja.
02:01
Takes about $300, by the way,
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Košta, uzgred, 300 dolara,
02:02
in the neurologist's clinic to do it.
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na neurološkoj klinici, da se uradi.
02:04
So what I want to propose to you as an unconventional way
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Ono što želim da vam predložim
kao nekonvencionalan način
kao nekonvencionalan način
02:07
in which we can try to achieve this,
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putem kojeg želimo ovo da postignemo,
02:08
because, you see, in one sense, at least,
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jer, vidite, na neki način barem,
02:10
we are all virtuosos like my friend Jan Stripling.
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svi smo mi virtuozi kao
moj prijatelj Jan Stripling.
moj prijatelj Jan Stripling.
02:13
So here we have a video of the vibrating vocal folds.
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Ovde imamo video
vibrirajućih glasnih žica.
vibrirajućih glasnih žica.
02:17
Now, this is healthy and this is somebody making speech sounds,
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Ovo je zdravo i ovo je neko
ko stvara govorne zvukove
ko stvara govorne zvukove
02:20
and we can think of ourselves as vocal ballet dancers,
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i možemo zamisliti sebe
kao vokalne baletane,
kao vokalne baletane,
02:24
because we have to coordinate all of these vocal organs
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jer moramo da koordiniramo
svim ovim vokalnim organima
svim ovim vokalnim organima
02:26
when we make sounds, and we all actually
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kad stvaramo zvukove,
i svi mi zapravo
i svi mi zapravo
02:28
have the genes for it. FoxP2, for example.
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posedujemo gene za to.
Na primer, "FoxP2" .
Na primer, "FoxP2" .
02:31
And like ballet, it takes an extraordinary level of training.
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I kao i balet, to zahteva
izuzetan nivo treninga.
izuzetan nivo treninga.
02:33
I mean, just think how long it takes a child to learn to speak.
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Mislim, zamislite samo koliko
treba detetu da nauči da priča.
treba detetu da nauči da priča.
02:36
From the sound, we can actually track
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Pomoću zvuka,
možemo pratiti
možemo pratiti
02:38
the vocal fold position as it vibrates,
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poziciju glasne žice
kako vibrira,
kako vibrira,
02:40
and just as the limbs are affected in Parkinson's,
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i kao što su udovi
pogođeni kod Parkinsona,
pogođeni kod Parkinsona,
02:43
so too are the vocal organs.
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tako su i vokalni organi.
02:46
So on the bottom trace, you can see an example of
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Na donjoj crti,
možete videti primer
možete videti primer
02:48
irregular vocal fold tremor.
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nepravilnog drhtanje glasne žice.
02:49
We see all the same symptoms.
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Vidimo sve iste simptome.
02:51
We see vocal tremor, weakness and rigidity.
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Vidimo vokalnu podrhtavanje,
slabost i ukočenost.
slabost i ukočenost.
02:53
The speech actually becomes quieter and more breathy
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Govor zapravo postaje
tiši i zadihaniji
tiši i zadihaniji
02:56
after a while, and that's one of the example symptoms of it.
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posle nekog vremena,
i ovo jedan primer simptoma.
i ovo jedan primer simptoma.
02:58
So these vocal effects can actually be quite subtle,
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Ovi vokalni efekti mogu biti
zaista poprilično suptilni,
zaista poprilično suptilni,
03:01
in some cases, but with any digital microphone,
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u nekim slučajevima, ali sa
bilo kojim digitalnim mikrofonom,
bilo kojim digitalnim mikrofonom,
03:04
and using precision voice analysis software
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i koristeći precizne softvere
za analizu glasa
za analizu glasa
03:06
in combination with the latest in machine learning,
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u kombinaciji sa najnovijim
aparatom za učenje,
aparatom za učenje,
03:09
which is very advanced by now,
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koji je mnogo unapređen danas,
03:10
we can now quantify exactly where somebody lies
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možemo tačno odrediti
gde se neko nalazi
gde se neko nalazi
03:13
on a continuum between health and disease
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na kontinuumu između
zdravlja i bolesti
zdravlja i bolesti
03:16
using voice signals alone.
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koristeći jedino
glasovne signale.
glasovne signale.
03:19
So these voice-based tests, how do they stack up against
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Kako ovi testovi na
osnovu glasa stoje naspram
osnovu glasa stoje naspram
03:21
expert clinical tests? We'll, they're both non-invasive.
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ekspertskih kliničkih testova?
Pa, oba su neinvazivna.
Pa, oba su neinvazivna.
03:23
The neurologist's test is non-invasive. They both use existing infrastructure.
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Neurološki test je neinvazivan.
Oba koriste postojeću infrastrukturu.
Oba koriste postojeću infrastrukturu.
03:27
You don't have to design a whole new set of hospitals to do it.
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Ne morate dizajnirati potpuno
nove bolnice da bi ga uradili.
nove bolnice da bi ga uradili.
03:30
And they're both accurate. Okay, but in addition,
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I oba su tačna.
Dobro, ali osim toga
Dobro, ali osim toga
03:33
voice-based tests are non-expert.
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testovi na bazi glasa
ne zahtevaju stručnjaka.
ne zahtevaju stručnjaka.
03:36
That means they can be self-administered.
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To znači da se mogu
samostalno koristiti.
samostalno koristiti.
03:38
They're high-speed, take about 30 seconds at most.
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Brzi su, potrebno je
najviše 30 sekundi.
najviše 30 sekundi.
03:40
They're ultra-low cost, and we all know what happens.
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Veoma su jeftini
i svi znamo šta se dešava.
i svi znamo šta se dešava.
03:43
When something becomes ultra-low cost,
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Kad nešto postane jako jeftino,
03:45
it becomes massively scalable.
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postaje masovno upotrebljavano.
03:47
So here are some amazing goals that I think we can deal with now.
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Evo nekoliko neverovatnih ciljeva
koje mislim da možemo rešiti sad.
koje mislim da možemo rešiti sad.
03:51
We can reduce logistical difficulties with patients.
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Možemo smanjiti logističke
poteškoće sa pacijentima.
poteškoće sa pacijentima.
03:54
No need to go to the clinic for a routine checkup.
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Nema potreba da se ide
u bolnicu na rutinsku kontrolu.
u bolnicu na rutinsku kontrolu.
03:56
We can do high-frequency monitoring to get objective data.
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Možemo uraditi kontrolu visoke frekvencije
da bi dobili objektivne podatke.
da bi dobili objektivne podatke.
03:58
We can perform low-cost mass recruitment for clinical trials,
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Možemo izvršti jeftine masovne
regrutacije za klinička ispitivanja,
regrutacije za klinička ispitivanja,
04:02
and we can make population-scale screening
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i možemo dobiti
rezultate na nivou populacije
rezultate na nivou populacije
04:04
feasible for the first time.
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izvodljive po prvi put.
04:06
We have the opportunity to start to search
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Imamo mogućnost
da započnemo potragu
da započnemo potragu
04:08
for the early biomarkers of the disease before it's too late.
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za ranim biomarkerima bolesti
pre nego što bude kasno.
pre nego što bude kasno.
04:12
So, taking the first steps towards this today,
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I tako, čineći prve korake ka ovome danas,
04:15
we're launching the Parkinson's Voice Initiative.
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pokrećemo Parkonsonovu Glasnu Inicijativu.
04:17
With Aculab and PatientsLikeMe, we're aiming
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Sa "Aculab" i "PatientsLikeMe",
ciljamo
ciljamo
04:19
to record a very large number of voices worldwide
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da snimimo veliki broj
glasova po celom svetu
glasova po celom svetu
04:21
to collect enough data to start to tackle these four goals.
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da bismo sakupili dovoljno podata
i započeli ostvarivanje ova četiri cilja.
i započeli ostvarivanje ova četiri cilja.
04:24
We have local numbers accessible to three quarters
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Imamo lokalne brojeve
dostupne za tri-četrvrtine
dostupne za tri-četrvrtine
04:26
of a billion people on the planet.
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milijarde ljudi na planeti.
04:27
Anyone healthy or with Parkinson's can call in, cheaply,
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Svako ko je zdrav ili sa Parkinsonom
može nazvati, jeftino,
može nazvati, jeftino,
04:30
and leave recordings, a few cents each,
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i ostaviti snimke,
nekoliko centi za svaki,
nekoliko centi za svaki,
04:32
and I'm really happy to announce that we've already hit
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i zaista sam srećan da objavim
da smo već dostigli
da smo već dostigli
04:35
six percent of our target just in eight hours.
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6% naše ciljne grupe
u roku od samo 8 sati.
u roku od samo 8 sati.
04:38
Thank you. (Applause)
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Hvala vam.
(Aplauz)
(Aplauz)
04:42
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
04:48
Tom Rielly: So Max, by taking all these samples of,
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Tom Rajli: Znači Maks,
uzimajući sve ove uzorke od,
uzimajući sve ove uzorke od,
04:52
let's say, 10,000 people,
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recimo, 10.000 ljudi,
04:55
you'll be able to tell who's healthy and who's not?
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vi ćete moći da kažete
ko je zdrav, a ko nije?
ko je zdrav, a ko nije?
04:57
What are you going to get out of those samples?
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Šta ćete dobiti iz svih tih uzoraka?
04:59
Max Little: Yeah. Yeah. So what will happen is that,
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Maks Litl: Da. Da.
Ono što će se desiti je,
Ono što će se desiti je,
05:01
during the call you have to indicate whether or not
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za vreme poziva morate
naznačiti da li
naznačiti da li
05:03
you have the disease or not, you see. TR: Right.
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imate bolest ili ne, znate.
TR: U redu.
TR: U redu.
05:04
ML: You see, some people may not do it. They may not get through it.
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ML: Znate, neki ljudi neće to uraditi.
Oni možda neće proći kroz to.
Oni možda neće proći kroz to.
05:06
But we'll get a very large sample of data that is collected
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Ali mi ćemo dobiti veliki
broj uzoraka koji su prikupljeni
broj uzoraka koji su prikupljeni
05:09
from all different circumstances, and it's getting it
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pod različitim okolnostima,
i uzimati ih
i uzimati ih
05:13
in different circumstances that matter because then
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u različitim okolnostima je važno
jer zatim
jer zatim
05:14
we are looking at ironing out the confounding factors,
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nastojimo da izdvojimo
zbunjujuće faktore
zbunjujuće faktore
05:18
and looking for the actual markers of the disease.
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i tražimo stvarne
markere bolesti.
markere bolesti.
05:20
TR: So you're 86 percent accurate right now?
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TR: Znači vi ste sad 86% tačni?
05:23
ML: It's much better than that.
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ML: Mnogo je bolje od toga.
05:24
Actually, my student Thanasis, I have to plug him,
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Zapravo, moj student Tanasis,
moram ga spomenuti,
moram ga spomenuti,
05:25
because he's done some fantastic work,
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jer je uradio fantastičan posao,
05:27
and now he has proved that it works over the mobile telephone network as well,
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i dokazao je da to funkcioniše
i preko mobilne telefonske mreže
i preko mobilne telefonske mreže
05:31
which enables this project, and we're getting 99 percent accuracy.
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što omogućava ovaj projekat,
i postajemo 99% tačni.
i postajemo 99% tačni.
05:34
TR: Ninety-nine. Well, that's an improvement.
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TR: Devedeset devet.
Pa, to je zaista napredak.
Pa, to je zaista napredak.
05:36
So what that means is that people will be able to —
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Dakle, to znači da će
ljudi biti u mogućnosti --
ljudi biti u mogućnosti --
05:38
ML: (Laughs)
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ML: (Smeh)
05:40
TR: People will be able to call in from their mobile phones
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TR: Ljudi će moći da nazovu
sa svojih mobilnih telefona
sa svojih mobilnih telefona
05:42
and do this test, and people with Parkinson's could call in,
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i urade ovaj test, i ljudi
sa Parkinsonom mogu nazvati,
sa Parkinsonom mogu nazvati,
05:45
record their voice, and then their doctor can check up
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snimiti svoj glas i zatim njihov
doktor može proveriti
doktor može proveriti
05:48
on their progress, see where they're doing in this course of the disease.
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njihov napredak, videti
u kojoj fazi je bolest.
u kojoj fazi je bolest.
05:51
ML: Absolutely.
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ML: Apsolutno.
05:52
TR: Thanks so much. Max Little, everybody.
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TR: Hvala ti puno. Maks Litl.
05:53
ML: Thanks, Tom. (Applause)
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ML: Hvala, Tom.
(Aplauz)
(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Max Little - Applied mathematicianMax Little is a mathematician whose research includes a breakthrough technique to monitor – and potentially screen for – Parkinson's disease through simple voice recordings.
Why you should listen
Max Little is an applied mathematician whose goal is to "see connections between subjects, not boundaries … to see how things are related, not how they are different." He has a background in applied mathematics, statistics, signal processing and computational engineering, and his work has been applied across disciplines like biomedicine, extreme rainfall analysis and forecasting, biophysical signal processing, and hydrogeomorphology and open channel flow measurement. Little is best known for his work on the Parkinson's Voice Initiative, in which he and his team developed a cheap and simple tool that uses precise voice analysis software to detect Parkinson's with 99 percent accuracy. Little is a TEDGlobal 2012 Fellow and a Wellcome Trust-MIT Postdoctoral Research Fellow.
Max Little | Speaker | TED.com