TEDGlobal 2012
Keith Chen: Could your language affect your ability to save money?
Kit Čen (Keith Chen): Može li jezik kojim govorite da utiče na vašu sposobnost da štedite?
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Šta su to ekonomisti saznali od lingvista? Bihejvioralni ekonomista Kit Čen predstavlja neverovatan obrazac koji je uočio u svom istraživanju: jezici koji ne razlikuju budućnost - "Kiša pada sutra" umesto "Kiša će padati sutra" - snažno su povezani sa visokim stopama štednje. Saznajte više o Čenovim istraživanjima »
Keith Chen - Behavioral economist
Keith Chen's research suggests that the language you speak may impact the way you think about your future. Full bio
Keith Chen's research suggests that the language you speak may impact the way you think about your future. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
The global economic financial crisis has reignited public interest
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Globalna ekonomska finansijska kriza
probudila je interesovanje
probudila je interesovanje
00:20
in something that's actually one of the oldest questions in economics,
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za jedno
od najstarijih pitanja ekonomije,
od najstarijih pitanja ekonomije,
00:24
dating back to at least before Adam Smith.
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koje datira sigurno
iz vremena pre Adama Smita.
iz vremena pre Adama Smita.
00:27
And that is, why is it that countries with seemingly similar economies and institutions
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Pitanje glasi: zašto u državama
sa naizgled sličnom privredom i institucijama
sa naizgled sličnom privredom i institucijama
00:32
can display radically different savings behavior?
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ljudi štede
potpuno drugačije?
potpuno drugačije?
00:35
Now, many brilliant economists have spent their entire lives working on this question,
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Mnogi vrhunski ekonomisti
su se ovim pitanjem bavili ceo život,
su se ovim pitanjem bavili ceo život,
00:40
and as a field we've made a tremendous amount of headway
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mnogo smo napredovali
kao nauka
kao nauka
00:43
and we understand a lot about this.
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i dosta toga razumemo
o ovom pitanju.
o ovom pitanju.
00:46
What I'm here to talk with you about today is an intriguing new hypothesis
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Danas ću govoriti
o novoj, interesantnoj hipotezi
o novoj, interesantnoj hipotezi
00:49
and some surprisingly powerful new findings that I've been working on
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i veoma značajnim saznanjima
kojima se bavim,
kojima se bavim,
00:53
about the link between the structure of the language you speak
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a tiču se veze
između strukture jezika koji govorite
između strukture jezika koji govorite
00:58
and how you find yourself with the propensity to save.
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i sopstvene sklonosti ka štednji.
01:02
Let me tell you a little bit about savings rates, a little bit about language,
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Ispričaću nešto o stopama štednje,
nešto o jeziku,
nešto o jeziku,
01:05
and then I'll draw that connection.
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a onda ću to povezati.
01:08
Let's start by thinking about the member countries of the OECD,
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Hajde da razmislimo malo
o državama članicama OECD-a,
o državama članicama OECD-a,
01:12
or the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.
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Organizacije za ekonomsku
saradnju i razvoj.
saradnju i razvoj.
01:16
OECD countries, by and large, you should think about these
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Države OECD-a obično smatramo
01:20
as the richest, most industrialized countries in the world.
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za najbogatije,
najindustrijalizovane.
najindustrijalizovane.
01:22
And by joining the OECD, they were affirming a common commitment
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Pristupanjem OECD-u su potvrdile
zajedničku posvećenost
zajedničku posvećenost
01:26
to democracy, open markets and free trade.
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demokratiji, otvorenom tržištu
i slobodnoj trgovini.
i slobodnoj trgovini.
01:30
Despite all of these similarities, we see huge differences in savings behavior.
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Uprkos sličnostima, postoje
ogromne razlike u ponašanju štediša.
ogromne razlike u ponašanju štediša.
01:34
So all the way over on the left of this graph,
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Skroz na levoj strani
ovog grafikona
ovog grafikona
01:37
what you see is many OECD countries saving over a quarter of their GDP every year,
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vidite da mnoge zemlje OECD-a
svake godine uštede preko četvrtine svog BDP-a,
svake godine uštede preko četvrtine svog BDP-a,
01:42
and some OECD countries saving over a third of their GDP per year.
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a neke zemlje OECD-a uštede
i preko trećine BDP-a godišnje.
i preko trećine BDP-a godišnje.
01:46
Holding down the right flank of the OECD, all the way on the other side, is Greece.
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Na desnom kraju OECD-a
nalazi se Grčka.
nalazi se Grčka.
01:51
And what you can see is that over the last 25 years,
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Vidite da je
u poslednjih 25 godina
u poslednjih 25 godina
01:54
Greece has barely managed to save more than 10 percent of their GDP.
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Grčka jedva uštedela
više od 10 posto svog BDP-a.
više od 10 posto svog BDP-a.
01:58
It should be noted, of course, that the United States and the U.K. are the next in line.
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Treba napomenuti i da su SAD
i Britanija odmah do nje.
i Britanija odmah do nje.
02:05
Now that we see these huge differences in savings rates,
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Pošto smo uočili ove razlike
u stopama štednje,
u stopama štednje,
02:08
how is it possible that language might have something to do with these differences?
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kako je moguće da jezik
ima ikakve veze sa tim razlikama?
ima ikakve veze sa tim razlikama?
02:11
Let me tell you a little bit about how languages fundamentally differ.
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Evo u čemu je
ključna razlika između jezika.
ključna razlika između jezika.
02:15
Linguists and cognitive scientists have been exploring this question for many years now.
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Lingvisti i kognitivni naučnici
ovo pitanje istražuju godinama.
ovo pitanje istražuju godinama.
02:20
And then I'll draw the connection between these two behaviors.
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Ja ću samo povezati
ta dva ponašanja.
ta dva ponašanja.
02:25
Many of you have probably already noticed that I'm Chinese.
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Verovatno ste već primetili
da sam Kinez.
da sam Kinez.
02:27
I grew up in the Midwest of the United States.
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Odrastao sam
na Srednjem zapadu SAD-a.
na Srednjem zapadu SAD-a.
02:30
And something I realized quite early on
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Prilično rano sam shvatio
02:33
was that the Chinese language forced me to speak about and --
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da me kineski jezik
tera da govorim -
tera da govorim -
02:36
in fact, more fundamentally than that --
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u stvari,
još je važnije -
još je važnije -
02:39
ever so slightly forced me to think about family in very different ways.
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čak i da mislim o porodici
na potpuno drugačiji način.
na potpuno drugačiji način.
02:43
Now, how might that be? Let me give you an example.
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Zašto je tako?
Evo primera.
Evo primera.
02:45
Suppose I were talking with you and I was introducing you to my uncle.
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Zamislite da vam predstavim svog
"uncle" (engl. ujak, stric, teča).
"uncle" (engl. ujak, stric, teča).
02:50
You understood exactly what I just said in English.
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Razumeli biste šta sam rekao
na engleskom.
na engleskom.
02:53
If we were speaking Mandarin Chinese with each other, though,
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Ipak, da govorimo
mandarinski kineski,
mandarinski kineski,
02:56
I wouldn't have that luxury.
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ne bih imao tu mogućnost.
02:58
I wouldn't have been able to convey so little information.
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Ne bih mogao da prenesem
tako malo informacija.
tako malo informacija.
03:00
What my language would have forced me to do,
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Zbog jezika ne bih mogao
03:03
instead of just telling you, "This is my uncle,"
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samo da vam kažem:
"Ovo je moj uncle",
"Ovo je moj uncle",
03:05
is to tell you a tremendous amount of additional information.
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već bih morao da izgovorim
mnogo dodatnih informacija.
mnogo dodatnih informacija.
03:08
My language would force me to tell you
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Zbog jezika bih morao
da vam kažem
da vam kažem
03:10
whether or not this was an uncle on my mother's side or my father's side,
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da li mi je on
ujak, stric
ujak, stric
03:13
whether this was an uncle by marriage or by birth,
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ili možda teča,
03:16
and if this man was my father's brother,
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a ako mi je stric,
03:19
whether he was older than or younger than my father.
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da li je stariji ili mlađi
od mog oca.
od mog oca.
03:21
All of this information is obligatory. Chinese doesn't let me ignore it.
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Sve te informacije su obavezne.
Zbog kineskog ne mogu ništa da izostavim.
Zbog kineskog ne mogu ništa da izostavim.
03:26
And in fact, if I want to speak correctly,
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Da budem precizniji,
03:28
Chinese forces me to constantly think about it.
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zbog kineskog jezika
o tome stalno razmišljam.
o tome stalno razmišljam.
03:31
Now, that fascinated me endlessly as a child,
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To mi je bilo jako zanimljivo
kad sam bio dete,
kad sam bio dete,
03:35
but what fascinates me even more today as an economist
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ali me danas kao ekonomistu
još više fascinira
još više fascinira
03:38
is that some of these same differences carry through to how languages speak about time.
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što se neke od istih razlika
primećuju i u izrazima o vremenu.
primećuju i u izrazima o vremenu.
03:43
So for example, if I'm speaking in English, I have to speak grammatically differently
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Ako govorim engleski, menjam
gramatičke oblike
gramatičke oblike
03:48
if I'm talking about past rain, "It rained yesterday,"
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ako govorim o kiši iz prošlosti:
"Juče je padala kiša",
"Juče je padala kiša",
03:50
current rain, "It is raining now,"
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kiši iz sadašnjosti:
"Sada pada kiša"
"Sada pada kiša"
03:53
or future rain, "It will rain tomorrow."
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ili kiši iz budućnosti:
"Sutra će padati kiša".
"Sutra će padati kiša".
03:55
Notice that English requires a lot more information with respect to the timing of events.
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Engleski iziskuje mnogo više informacija
o tome kada se radnja odvija.
o tome kada se radnja odvija.
04:00
Why? Because I have to consider that
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Zašto?
Zato što o tome moram da mislim,
Zato što o tome moram da mislim,
04:02
and I have to modify what I'm saying to say, "It will rain," or "It's going to rain."
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pa menjam gramatički oblik i kad govorim
da će kiša sigurno padati ili da će možda padati.
da će kiša sigurno padati ili da će možda padati.
04:07
It's simply not permissible in English to say, "It rain tomorrow."
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U engleskom se ne može reći:
"Kiša pada sutra".
"Kiša pada sutra".
04:11
In contrast to that, that's almost exactly what you would say in Chinese.
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S druge strane, upravo biste to rekli
na kineskom.
na kineskom.
04:15
A Chinese speaker can basically say something
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Govornik kineskog
praktično može da kaže nešto
praktično može da kaže nešto
04:17
that sounds very strange to an English speaker's ears.
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što govorniku engleskog
strašno para uši.
strašno para uši.
04:20
They can say, "Yesterday it rain," "Now it rain," "Tomorrow it rain."
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Može da kaže: "Kiša pada juče",
"Kiša pada sada" ili "Kiša pada sutra".
"Kiša pada sada" ili "Kiša pada sutra".
04:24
In some deep sense, Chinese doesn't divide up the time spectrum
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Na neki način, kineski ne deli
vremenski spektar
vremenski spektar
04:28
in the same way that English forces us to constantly do in order to speak correctly.
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onako kako to radimo zbog engleskog jezika
da bismo ga pravilno govorili.
da bismo ga pravilno govorili.
04:35
Is this difference in languages
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Postoji li ovakva razlika
u jezicima
u jezicima
04:36
only between very, very distantly related languages, like English and Chinese?
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samo između izrazito nesrodnih jezika,
kao što su engleski i kineski?
kao što su engleski i kineski?
04:40
Actually, no.
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Zapravo, ne.
04:41
So many of you know, in this room, that English is a Germanic language.
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Verovatno znate da je engleski
germanski jezik.
germanski jezik.
04:45
What you may not have realized is that English is actually an outlier.
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Možda ne znate da engleski
baš i ne pripada svojoj zajednici.
baš i ne pripada svojoj zajednici.
04:49
It is the only Germanic language that requires this.
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To je jedini germanski jezik
koji zahteva naglašavanje vremena.
koji zahteva naglašavanje vremena.
04:52
For example, most other Germanic language speakers
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Na primer, govornicima
većine drugih germanskih jezika
većine drugih germanskih jezika
04:55
feel completely comfortable talking about rain tomorrow
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prirodno je da govore
o kiši
o kiši
04:58
by saying, "Morgen regnet es,"
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tako što će reći:
"Morgen regnet es",
"Morgen regnet es",
05:00
quite literally to an English ear, "It rain tomorrow."
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bukvalno prevedeno:
"Sutra pada kiša."
"Sutra pada kiša."
05:04
This led me, as a behavioral economist, to an intriguing hypothesis.
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To me je, kao bihejvioralnog ekonomistu,
dovelo do zanimljive hipoteze.
dovelo do zanimljive hipoteze.
05:09
Could how you speak about time, could how your language forces you to think about time,
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Da li način na koji govorite o vremenu,
na koji, zbog jezika, razmišljate o vremenu,
na koji, zbog jezika, razmišljate o vremenu,
05:13
affect your propensity to behave across time?
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utiče na vašu sklonost
da se ponašate na određeni način?
da se ponašate na određeni način?
05:17
You speak English, a futured language.
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Govorite engleski,
futurizovan jezik.
futurizovan jezik.
05:20
And what that means is that every time you discuss the future,
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To znači da ste,
kad razgovarate o budućnosti
kad razgovarate o budućnosti
05:23
or any kind of a future event,
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ili nekom
budućem događaju,
budućem događaju,
05:25
grammatically you're forced to cleave that from the present
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gramatički primorani da to
potpuno odvojite od sadašnjosti
potpuno odvojite od sadašnjosti
05:28
and treat it as if it's something viscerally different.
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i o tome instinktivno mislite
kao o nečemu drugačijem.
kao o nečemu drugačijem.
05:31
Now suppose that that visceral difference
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Pretpostavimo da
zbog te instinktivne razlike
zbog te instinktivne razlike
05:33
makes you subtly dissociate the future from the present every time you speak.
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neprimetno odvajate budućnost
od sadašnjosti kad god govorite.
od sadašnjosti kad god govorite.
05:38
If that's true and it makes the future feel
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Ako je to tačno
i ako budućnost doživljavate
i ako budućnost doživljavate
05:39
like something more distant and more different from the present,
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kao udaljenu i drugačiju
od sadašnjosti,
od sadašnjosti,
05:42
that's going to make it harder to save.
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biće vam teže
da štedite.
da štedite.
05:45
If, on the other hand, you speak a futureless language,
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A ako govorite
besfuturni jezik,
besfuturni jezik,
05:48
the present and the future, you speak about them identically.
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o sadašnjosti i budućnosti
govorite istovetno.
govorite istovetno.
05:51
If that subtly nudges you to feel about them identically,
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Ako njih zbog toga
doživljavate identičnim,
doživljavate identičnim,
05:54
that's going to make it easier to save.
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biće vam lakše da štedite.
05:56
Now this is a fanciful theory.
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E, ovo je
nerealna teorija.
nerealna teorija.
05:59
I'm a professor, I get paid to have fanciful theories.
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Ja sam profesor, plaćaju me
da smišljam nerealne teorije.
da smišljam nerealne teorije.
06:02
But how would you actually go about testing such a theory?
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Kako da zaista
proverimo takvu teoriju?
proverimo takvu teoriju?
06:06
Well, what I did with that was to access the linguistics literature.
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Ja sam proučavao
lingvističku literaturu.
lingvističku literaturu.
06:10
And interestingly enough, there are pockets of futureless language speakers
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Vrlo je zanimljivo da postoje
grupe govornika besfuturnih jezika
grupe govornika besfuturnih jezika
06:15
situated all over the world.
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širom sveta.
06:16
This is a pocket of futureless language speakers in Northern Europe.
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Ovo je grupa govornika besfuturnih jezika
u severnoj Evropi.
u severnoj Evropi.
06:20
Interestingly enough, when you start to crank the data,
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Kad počnete
da proučavate podatke,
da proučavate podatke,
06:23
these pockets of futureless language speakers all around the world
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za govornike besfuturnih jezika
iz celog sveta
iz celog sveta
06:26
turn out to be, by and large, some of the world's best savers.
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ispostavi se da su uglavnom
među najboljim štedišama na svetu.
među najboljim štedišama na svetu.
06:30
Just to give you a hint of that,
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Čisto da vam nagovestim,
06:32
let's look back at that OECD graph that we were talking about.
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pogledajte opet grafikon OECD-a
o kom smo govorili.
o kom smo govorili.
06:35
What you see is that these bars are systematically taller
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Vidimo da su
sve ovakve linije duže
sve ovakve linije duže
06:38
and systematically shifted to the left
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i da su sve
pomerene ka levo
pomerene ka levo
06:40
compared to these bars which are the members of the OECD that speak futured languages.
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u odnosu na linije koje predstavljaju
članove OECD-a sa futurizovanim jezicima.
članove OECD-a sa futurizovanim jezicima.
06:45
What is the average difference here?
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Kolika je prosečna razlika?
06:46
Five percentage points of your GDP saved per year.
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Ušteda od pet posto BDP-a
na godinu dana.
na godinu dana.
06:50
Over 25 years that has huge long-run effects on the wealth of your nation.
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Nakon 25 godina, ovo ima ogromne
dugoročne posledice na bogatstvo države.
dugoročne posledice na bogatstvo države.
06:54
Now while these findings are suggestive,
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Iako su ovi rezultati
sugestivni,
sugestivni,
06:57
countries can be different in so many different ways
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države se mogu razlikovati
na toliko načina
na toliko načina
06:59
that it's very, very difficult sometimes to account for all of these possible differences.
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da može biti veoma teško
uzeti u obzir sve te razlike.
uzeti u obzir sve te razlike.
07:03
What I'm going to show you, though, is something that I've been engaging in for a year,
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Ipak, sad ću vam pokazati
nešto čime se bavim godinu dana,
nešto čime se bavim godinu dana,
07:08
which is trying to gather all of the largest datasets
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pokušavam da prikupim
najveće setove podataka
najveće setove podataka
07:10
that we have access to as economists,
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kojima mi kao ekonomisti
imamo pristup
imamo pristup
07:12
and I'm going to try and strip away all of those possible differences,
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i pokušaću da odstranim
sve moguće razlike,
sve moguće razlike,
07:16
hoping to get this relationship to break.
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ne bih li opovrgao
ovu povezanost.
ovu povezanost.
07:18
And just in summary, no matter how far I push this, I can't get it to break.
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Ukratko, koliko god da je testiram,
ne mogu da je opovrgnem.
ne mogu da je opovrgnem.
07:23
Let me show you how far you can do that.
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Pogledajte koliko daleko
možemo ići.
možemo ići.
07:25
One way to imagine that is I gather large datasets from around the world.
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Prosto prikupljam
velike setove podataka iz celog sveta.
velike setove podataka iz celog sveta.
07:30
So for example, there is the Survey of Health, [Aging] and Retirement in Europe.
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Imamo Anketu o zdravlju,
starenju i penzionisanju u Evropi.
starenju i penzionisanju u Evropi.
07:33
From this dataset you actually learn that retired European families
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Iz ovog seta podataka saznajemo
da penzionisane evropske porodice
da penzionisane evropske porodice
07:37
are extremely patient with survey takers.
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imaju mnogo strpljenja
za anketare.
za anketare.
07:40
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
07:42
So imagine that you're a retired household in Belgium and someone comes to your front door.
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Zamislite da ste penzionisani Belgijanac
i da vam neko pokuca na vrata.
i da vam neko pokuca na vrata.
07:46
"Excuse me, would you mind if I peruse your stock portfolio?
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"Izvinite, mogu li da vam prekontrolišem
dokumente o investicijama?
dokumente o investicijama?
07:51
Do you happen to know how much your house is worth? Do you mind telling me?
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Znate li možda koliko vam vredi kuća?
Je l' biste hteli da mi kažete?
Je l' biste hteli da mi kažete?
07:54
Would you happen to have a hallway that's more than 10 meters long?
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Da nemate slučajno hodnik koji je duži
od 10 metara?
od 10 metara?
07:57
If you do, would you mind if I timed how long it took you to walk down that hallway?
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Ako imate, je l' bih mogao da izmerim
koliko vam vremena treba da ga prehodate?
koliko vam vremena treba da ga prehodate?
08:02
Would you mind squeezing as hard as you can, in your dominant hand, this device
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Hajde sad stegnite ovaj uređaj što snažnije,
dominantom rukom,
dominantom rukom,
08:06
so I can measure your grip strength?
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da vam izmerim snagu stiska.
08:07
How about blowing into this tube so I can measure your lung capacity?"
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A je l' možete da duvate u ovu cev
da vam izmerim kapacitet pluća?"
da vam izmerim kapacitet pluća?"
08:11
The survey takes over a day.
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Anketa traje
više od jednog dana.
više od jednog dana.
08:14
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
08:16
Combine that with a Demographic and Health Survey
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To smo spojili
sa Anketom o demografiji i zdravlju
sa Anketom o demografiji i zdravlju
08:20
collected by USAID in developing countries in Africa, for example,
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koju je USAID sproveo
u afričkim zemljama u razvoju,
u afričkim zemljama u razvoju,
08:24
which that survey actually can go so far as to directly measure the HIV status
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a to istraživanje može čak
direktno da odredi status HIV-a
direktno da odredi status HIV-a
08:29
of families living in, for example, rural Nigeria.
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za porodice, recimo,
u ruralnoj Nigeriji.
u ruralnoj Nigeriji.
08:32
Combine that with a world value survey,
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To smo spojili sa
svetskom anketom o vrednostima,
svetskom anketom o vrednostima,
08:34
which measures the political opinions and, fortunately for me, the savings behaviors
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koja meri političke stavove i,
na sreću, ponašanje štediša
na sreću, ponašanje štediša
08:39
of millions of families in hundreds of countries around the world.
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u milionima porodica
iz stotina država čitavog sveta.
iz stotina država čitavog sveta.
08:43
Take all of that data, combine it, and this map is what you get.
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Prikupili smo sve te podatke, spojili ih
i dobili ovu kartu.
i dobili ovu kartu.
08:47
What you find is nine countries around the world
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Primetićete da u devet
država sveta
država sveta
08:49
that have significant native populations
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postoje
znatne domorodačke populacije
znatne domorodačke populacije
08:52
which speak both futureless and futured languages.
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koje govore i futurizovane
i besfuturne jezike.
i besfuturne jezike.
08:56
And what I'm going to do is form statistical matched pairs
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Ja ću statistički upariti
09:00
between families that are nearly identical on every dimension that I can measure,
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porodice koje su identične
po skoro svemu što se može izmeriti,
po skoro svemu što se može izmeriti,
09:05
and then I'm going to explore whether or not the link between language and savings holds
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a onda ću ispitati da li veza
između jezika i štednje opstaje
između jezika i štednje opstaje
09:09
even after controlling for all of these levels.
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i posle kontrole
na svim ovim nivoima.
na svim ovim nivoima.
09:12
What are the characteristics we can control for?
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Koje karakteristike
možemo uzeti u obzir?
možemo uzeti u obzir?
09:15
Well I'm going to match families on country of birth and residence,
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Povezaću porodice na osnovu
države rođenja i stanovnja,
države rođenja i stanovnja,
09:17
the demographics -- what sex, their age --
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demografskih odlika
- pola, starosti -
- pola, starosti -
09:20
their income level within their own country,
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količine prihoda
u odnosu na njihovu državu,
u odnosu na njihovu državu,
09:22
their educational achievement, a lot about their family structure.
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obrazovanja,
porodične strukture.
porodične strukture.
09:25
It turns out there are six different ways to be married in Europe.
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Ispostavilo se da se u Evropi
možete venčati na šest načina.
možete venčati na šest načina.
09:28
And most granularly, I break them down by religion
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Najdetaljnije ću ih razdvojiti
prema religiji,
prema religiji,
09:33
where there are 72 categories of religions in the world --
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pošto postoje 72 kategorije religija
na svetu -
na svetu -
09:36
so an extreme level of granularity.
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izuzetan stepen
razdvajanja.
razdvajanja.
09:38
There are 1.4 billion different ways that a family can find itself.
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Postoji 1,4 milijarde načina
kako porodica može izgledati.
kako porodica može izgledati.
09:42
Now effectively everything I'm going to tell you from now on
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Ovo što ću nadalje govoriti
u suštini je
u suštini je
09:46
is only comparing these basically nearly identical families.
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samo poređenje
praktično identičnih porodica.
praktično identičnih porodica.
09:49
It's getting as close as possible to the thought experiment
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Ovo je praktično
misaoni eksperiment
misaoni eksperiment
09:52
of finding two families both of whom live in Brussels
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pronalaženja dve porodice
koje obe žive u Briselu,
koje obe žive u Briselu,
09:55
who are identical on every single one of these dimensions,
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identične su
u svakoj od ovih dimenzija,
u svakoj od ovih dimenzija,
09:58
but one of whom speaks Flemish and one of whom speaks French;
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ali jedna govori flamanski,
a druga francuski;
a druga francuski;
10:01
or two families that live in a rural district in Nigeria,
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ili dve porodice koje žive
u ruralnom području Nigerije,
u ruralnom području Nigerije,
10:04
one of whom speaks Hausa and one of whom speaks Igbo.
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od kojih jedna govori hausa,
a druga igbo.
a druga igbo.
10:07
Now even after all of this granular level of control,
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Da li i posle
ovako detaljne kontrole
ovako detaljne kontrole
10:11
do futureless language speakers seem to save more?
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izgleda da govornici besfuturnih jezika
štede više?
štede više?
10:14
Yes, futureless language speakers, even after this level of control,
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Da, čak i posle ovakve kontrole,
verovatnoća da su
verovatnoća da su
10:18
are 30 percent more likely to report having saved in any given year.
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govornici besfuturnih jezika štedeli
u nekoj godini veća je 30 posto.
u nekoj godini veća je 30 posto.
10:22
Does this have cumulative effects?
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Ima li to
kumulativne posledice?
kumulativne posledice?
10:24
Yes, by the time they retire, futureless language speakers, holding constant their income,
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Da, do penzije će govornici besfuturnih jezika,
ako zadrže iste prihode,
ako zadrže iste prihode,
10:28
are going to retire with 25 percent more in savings.
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imati 25% više ušteđevine.
10:31
Can we push this data even further?
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Možemo li podatke
još nekako tumačiti?
još nekako tumačiti?
10:34
Yes, because I just told you, we actually collect a lot of health data as economists.
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Da, kao što sam rekao, ekonomisti prikupljaju
mnogo zdravstvenih podataka.
mnogo zdravstvenih podataka.
10:39
Now how can we think about health behaviors to think about savings?
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Kako se zdravstveno ponašanje
može posmatrati kao štednja?
može posmatrati kao štednja?
10:43
Well, think about smoking, for example.
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Uzmimo za primer
pušenje cigareta.
pušenje cigareta.
10:46
Smoking is in some deep sense negative savings.
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Ono je na neki način
negativna štednja.
negativna štednja.
10:49
If savings is current pain in exchange for future pleasure,
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Ako je štednja bol u sadašnjosti
u zamenu za uživanje u budućnosti,
u zamenu za uživanje u budućnosti,
10:52
smoking is just the opposite.
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pušenje je upravo suprotno.
10:54
It's current pleasure in exchange for future pain.
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To je uživanje u sadašnjosti
u zamenu za bol u budućnosti.
u zamenu za bol u budućnosti.
10:57
What we should expect then is the opposite effect.
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Onda treba očekivati
i suprotne posledice.
i suprotne posledice.
11:00
And that's exactly what we find.
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To smo i zaključili.
11:01
Futureless language speakers are 20 to 24 percent less likely
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Od 20 do 24 posto je manja verovatnoća
da su govornici besfuturnih jezika
da su govornici besfuturnih jezika
11:05
to be smoking at any given point in time compared to identical families,
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pušili u nekom trenutku
u poređenju sa identičnim porodicama
u poređenju sa identičnim porodicama
11:08
and they're going to be 13 to 17 percent less likely
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i od 13 do 17 posto je
manje verovatno
manje verovatno
11:11
to be obese by the time they retire,
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da će biti gojazni
kada odu u penziju,
kada odu u penziju,
11:14
and they're going to report being 21 percent more likely
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a 21 posto je veća verovatnoća
da će reći
da će reći
11:16
to have used a condom in their last sexual encounter.
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da su koristili kondom
u poslednjem seksualnom odnosu.
u poslednjem seksualnom odnosu.
11:18
I could go on and on with the list of differences that you can find.
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Ima još mnogo
ovakvih razlika.
ovakvih razlika.
11:22
It's almost impossible not to find a savings behavior
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Skoro da je nemoguće
ne pronaći ponašanje štediša
ne pronaći ponašanje štediša
11:26
for which this strong effect isn't present.
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za koje ova pojava
nije izražena.
nije izražena.
11:28
My linguistics and economics colleagues at Yale and I are just starting to do this work
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Zajedno sa kolegama lingvistima i ekonomistima
sa Jejla tek počinjem time da se bavim
sa Jejla tek počinjem time da se bavim
11:33
and really explore and understand the ways that these subtle nudges
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i da zaista istražujem i proučavam način
na koji nas ove male razlike
na koji nas ove male razlike
11:38
cause us to think more or less about the future every single time we speak.
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teraju da o budućnosti razmišljamo
manje ili više kad god govorimo.
manje ili više kad god govorimo.
11:44
Ultimately, the goal,
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Konačni cilj,
11:46
once we understand how these subtle effects can change our decision making,
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kada razumemo kako ove jedva primetne pojave
utiču na način donošenja odluka,
utiču na način donošenja odluka,
11:50
we want to be able to provide people tools
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jeste da svima ponudimo sredstva
11:53
so that they can consciously make themselves better savers
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pomoću kojih mogu postati
bolje štediše
bolje štediše
11:56
and more conscious investors in their own future.
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i svesnije investirati
u svoju budućnost.
u svoju budućnost.
11:59
Thank you very much.
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Hvala vam.
12:01
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Keith Chen - Behavioral economistKeith Chen's research suggests that the language you speak may impact the way you think about your future.
Why you should listen
Does the future look like a different world to you, or more like an extension of the present? In an intriguing piece of research, Keith Chen suggests that your attitude about the future has a strong relationship to the language you speak. In a nutshell, some languages refer to the future using verb helpers like "will" and "shall," while others don't have specific verbs to refer to future actions. Chen correlated these two different language types with remarkably different rates of saving for the future (guess who saves more?). He calls this connection the "futurity" of languages. The paper is in the process of being published by the American Economic Review, and it's already generated discussion. Chen says: "While the data I analyze don’t allow me to completely understand what role language plays in these relationships, they suggest that there is something really remarkable to be explained about the interaction of language and economic decision-making. These correlations are so strong and survive such an aggressive set of controls, that the chances they arise by random lies somewhere between one in 10,000 and one in 10^32."
Chen excels in asking unusual questions to yield original results. Another work (with Yale colleague and TEDGlobal 2009 speaker Laurie Santos) examined how monkeys view economic risk--with surprisingly humanlike irrationality. While a working paper asks a surprising, if rhetorical, question: Does it make economic sense for a woman to become a physician?
Chen is currently Uber's Head of Economic Research and is an associate professor of economics at UCLA .
Keith Chen | Speaker | TED.com