TED@State Street Boston
Michael Metcalfe: We need money for aid. So let’s print it.
Majkl Metkalf (Michael Metcalfe): Potreban nam je novac za pomoć. Odštampajmo ga.
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Tokom finansijske krize, centralne banke u SAD, Velikoj Britaniji i Japanu su stvorile 3,7 biliona dolara kako bi kupile imovinu i ohrabrile investitore da urade isto. Majkl Metkaf nam predlaže šokantnu ideju: da li bi ove centralne banke mogle štampati novac kako bi sigurno ostale na putu sa svojim ciljevima o međunarodnoj pomoći? Bez rizika inflacije?
Michael Metcalfe - Financial expert
A senior managing director and head of global macro strategy at State Street Global Markets, Michael Metcalfe provides high quality capital flow research. Full bio
A senior managing director and head of global macro strategy at State Street Global Markets, Michael Metcalfe provides high quality capital flow research. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Thirteen years ago,
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Pre trinaest godina,
00:15
we set ourselves a goal to end poverty.
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postavili smo cilj da okončamo siromaštvo.
00:21
After some success,
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Nakon nešto uspeha,
00:24
we've hit a big hurdle.
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naišli smo na prepreku.
00:27
The aftermath of the financial crisis
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Posledice finansijske krize
00:29
has begun to hit aid payments,
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su počele da utiču
na plaćanje za pomoć,
na plaćanje za pomoć,
00:32
which have fallen for two consecutive years.
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koje opada već dve godine zaredom.
00:37
My question is whether the lessons learned
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Pitanje je, da li se mogu naučene lekcije
00:41
from saving the financial system
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o spašavanju finansijskog sistema,
00:45
can be used to help us overcome that hurdle
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iskoristiti da nam pomognu
da pređemo tu prepreku,
da pređemo tu prepreku,
00:48
and help millions.
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i pomognemo milionima?
00:51
Can we simply print money for aid?
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Možemo li, jednostavno,
štampati novac za pomoć?
štampati novac za pomoć?
00:58
"Surely not."
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"Sigurno ne."
01:00
It's a common reaction.
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To je uobičajena reakcija.
01:02
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
01:03
It's a quick talk.
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To je blebetanje.
01:05
Others channel John McEnroe.
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Drugi imitiraju Džona Mekenroa.
01:10
"You cannot be serious!"
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"Mora da se šališ!"
01:12
Now, I can't do the accent, but I am serious,
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Ne mogu da oponašam akcenat,
ali sam ozbiljan
ali sam ozbiljan
01:17
thanks to these two children,
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zahvaljujući ovim dvema devojčicama,
01:21
who, as you'll learn, are very much at the heart
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koje su, videćete,
srž mog govora.
01:25
of my talk.
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01:27
On the left, we have Pia.
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Sa leve strane je Pija.
01:30
She lives in England.
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Ona živi u Engleskoj.
01:32
She has two loving parents,
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Ima roditelje koji je vole,
01:35
one of whom is standing right here.
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od kojih jedan stoji upravo ovde.
01:40
Dorothy, on the right,
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Doroti, sa desne strane,
01:42
lives in rural Kenya.
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živi u selu u Keniji.
01:45
She's one of 13,000 orphans
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Ona je jedna od 13 000 siročadi,
01:48
and vulnerable children
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i ranjive dece
01:49
who are assisted by a charity that I support.
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kojima pomaže
dobrotvorna ustanova koju podržavam.
dobrotvorna ustanova koju podržavam.
01:54
I do that because I believe
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Podržavam je jer verujem
01:57
that Dorothy, like Pia,
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da Doroti, poput Pije,
02:00
deserves the best life chances
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zaslužuje najbolje prilike u životu
02:03
that we can afford to give her.
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koje joj možemo priuštiti.
02:05
You'll all agree with me, I'm sure.
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Složićete se sa mnom, siguran sam.
02:08
The U.N. agrees too.
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UN se slaže takođe.
02:11
Their overriding aim
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Njihova najvažnija meta
02:13
for international aid
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za međunarodnu pomoć
02:15
is to strive for a life of dignity for all.
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je težnja
ka dostojanstvenom životu za sve.
ka dostojanstvenom životu za sve.
02:21
But -- and here's that hurdle --
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Ali - tu je i ta prepreka -
02:26
can we afford our aid aspirations?
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da li možemo da priuštimo
naše namere za pomoć?
naše namere za pomoć?
02:30
History suggests not.
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Istorija navodi da ne možemo.
02:34
In 1970, governments set themselves a target
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1970, vlade su postavile sebi cilj
02:39
to increase overseas aid payments
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da povećaju isplate za pomoć preko mora,
02:42
to 0.7 percent
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na 0.7 procenata od svojih
02:44
of their national income.
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nacionalnih prihoda.
02:45
As you can see, a big gap opens up
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Kao što vidite, veliki razmak se primećuje
02:50
between actual aid and that target.
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između stvarne pomoći i tog cilja.
02:54
But then come the Millennium Development Goals,
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Zatim se pojavljuju
Milenijumski ciljevi razvoja,
Milenijumski ciljevi razvoja,
02:59
eight ambitious targets
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osam ambicioznih meta
03:01
to be met by 2015.
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koje treba ispuniti do 2015.
03:05
If I tell you that just one of those targets
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Ako vam kažem da je jedna od ovih meta
03:08
is to eradicate extreme hunger and poverty,
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iskoreniti glad i siromaštvo,
03:12
you get a sense of the ambition.
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dobićete svest o ambiciji.
03:15
There's also been some success.
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Bilo je i nešto uspeha.
03:18
The number of people living
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Broj ljudi koji žive
03:20
on less than $1.25 a day has halved.
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sa manje od $1.25 na dan se prepolovio.
03:26
But a lot remains to be done in two years.
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Ali ostaje još mnogo posla
za naredne dve godine.
za naredne dve godine.
03:29
One in eight remain hungry.
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Jedan od osam ljudi ostaje gladan.
03:33
In the context of this auditorium,
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U sklopu ove dvorane,
03:36
the front two rows aren't going to get any food.
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prednja dva reda
neće dobiti nikakvu hranu.
neće dobiti nikakvu hranu.
03:40
We can't settle for that,
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Ne možemo se zadovoljiti time,
03:42
which is why the concern about the eighth goal,
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i zbog toga je zabrinutost
u vezi sa osmim ciljem,
u vezi sa osmim ciljem,
03:47
which relates to funding,
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koji se odnosi na finansiranje,
03:49
which I said at the beginning is falling,
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za šta sam rekao na početku da opada,
03:52
is so troubling.
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tako problematična.
03:56
So what can be done?
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Šta se može učiniti povodom toga?
03:58
Well, I work in financial markets,
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Ja radim na finansijskom tržištu,
04:01
not development.
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ne razvoju.
04:04
I study the behavior of investors,
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Izučavam ponašanje investitora,
04:07
how they react to policy and the economy.
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kako reaguju na politiku i ekonomiju.
04:12
It gives me a different angle on the aid issue.
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To mi daje drugačiji pogled
na temu pomoći.
na temu pomoći.
04:17
But it took an innocent question
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Ali je nevino pitanje
04:19
from my then-four-year-old daughter
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moje četvorogodišnje ćerke
04:22
to make me appreciate that.
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bilo potrebno da to poštujem.
04:26
Pia and I were on the way to a local cafe
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Pija i ja smo bili na putu ka restoranu
04:29
and we passed a man collecting for charity.
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i prošli smo pored čoveka
koji skuplja novac za dobre svrhe.
koji skuplja novac za dobre svrhe.
04:34
I didn't have any change to give him,
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Nisam imao sitniša da mu dam,
04:35
and she was disappointed.
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na šta se ona razočarala.
04:38
Once in the cafe, Pia takes out her coloring book
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U restoranu je izvadila svoju bojanku
04:42
and starts scribbling.
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i počela da škraba.
04:43
After a little while, I ask her what she's doing,
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Malo kasnije sam je pitao šta radi,
04:47
and she shows me a drawing
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a ona mi je pokazala crtež
04:50
of a £5 note
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novčanice od 5 funti,
04:52
to give to the man outside.
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kako bi je dala tom čoveku.
04:54
It's so sweet,
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Toliko je drago,
04:55
and more generous than Dad would have been.
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i plemenitije nego što bi otac ikada bio.
04:58
But of course I explained to her,
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Ali sam joj, naravno, objasnio,
05:00
"You can't do that; it's not allowed."
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"Ne možeš to uraditi; to nije dozvoljeno."
05:03
To which I get the classic four-year-old response:
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Na šta sam dobio tipičan dečiji odgovor:
05:08
"Why not?"
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"Zašto da ne?"
05:10
Now I'm excited, because I actually think
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Postao sam uzbuđen, jer sam mislio
05:12
I can answer this time.
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da ovaj put mogu odgovoriti.
05:14
So I launch into an explanation of how
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Upustio sam se u objašnjavanje kako
05:17
an unlimited supply of money
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neograničene zalihe novca
05:21
chasing a limited number of goods
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koje prate ograničen broj robe
05:24
sends prices to the moon.
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podižu cene do meseca.
05:31
Something about that exchange stuck with me,
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Nešto u vezi sa tom razmenom
je ostalo uz mene,
je ostalo uz mene,
05:35
not because of the look of relief
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ne zbog olakšanja
05:37
on Pia's face when I finally finished,
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na Pijinom licu kada sam završio,
(Smeh)
(Smeh)
05:39
but because it related
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već zato što je u vezi sa
05:44
to the sanctity of the money supply,
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svetinjom novčanih zaliha,
05:49
a sanctity that had been challenged and questioned
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svetinjom koja je izazivana
i dovođena u pitanje
i dovođena u pitanje
05:53
by the reaction of central banks
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reakcijama centralnih banki
05:56
to the financial crisis.
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na finansijsku krizu.
05:59
To reassure investors,
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Kako bi ponovo uverile investitore,
06:01
central banks began buying assets
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banke su počele da kupuju imovinu
06:06
to try and encourage investors to do the same.
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kako bi pokušale da ohrabre investitore
da i oni to učine.
da i oni to učine.
06:11
They funded these purchases
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Finansirali su ove kupovine
06:15
with money they created themselves.
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novcem koji su sami stvorili.
06:18
The money wasn't actually physically printed.
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Novac nije bio zapravo fizički odštampan.
06:22
It's still sort of locked away
in the banking system today.
in the banking system today.
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To je na neki način zarobljeno
u bankarskom sistemu danas.
u bankarskom sistemu danas.
06:25
But the amount created was unprecedented.
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Ali stvorena količina
je bila bez presedana.
je bila bez presedana.
06:30
Together, the central banks of the U.S.,
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Zajedno, centralne banke SAD-a
06:34
U.K and Japan
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Velike Britanije i Japana
06:36
increased the stock of money in their economies
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su povećale zalihe novca u svojoj privredi
06:39
by 3.7 trillion dollars.
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za 3,7 biliona dolara.
06:43
That's three times, in fact
that's more than three times,
that's more than three times,
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To je tri puta više,
u stvari taj broj je veći od tri,
u stvari taj broj je veći od tri,
06:47
the total physical stock of dollar notes in circulation.
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od ukupnih zaliha novčanica
koje se koriste.
koje se koriste.
06:51
Three times!
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Tri puta!
06:56
Before the crisis,
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Pre krize,
06:58
this would have been utterly unthinkable,
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ovo bi bilo krajnje nezamislivo,
07:03
yet it was accepted remarkably quickly.
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a ipak je pihvaćeno veoma brzo.
07:10
The price of gold,
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Cena zlata,
07:12
an asset thought to protect against inflation,
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resursa za koji se smatra
da brani protiv inflacije,
da brani protiv inflacije,
07:15
did jump,
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je skočila,
07:18
but investors bought other assets
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ali investitori su kupili drugu imovinu
07:20
that offered little protection from inflation.
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koja je pružila
neznatnu zaštitu protiv inflacije.
neznatnu zaštitu protiv inflacije.
07:23
They bought fixed income securities, bonds.
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Kupili su fiksne obveznice, menice.
07:27
They bought equities too.
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Kupili su akcije takođe.
07:29
For all the scare stories,
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Za sve zastrašujuće priče,
07:32
the actual actions of investors
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stvarna dela investitora
07:35
spoke of rapid acceptance and confidence.
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su govorila
o brzim prihvatanjima i poverenju.
o brzim prihvatanjima i poverenju.
07:42
That confidence was based on two pillars.
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To poverenje je bazirano na dve stavke.
07:47
The first was that, after years
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Prva je bilo da, nakon više godina
07:50
of keeping inflation under control,
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držanja inflacije pod kontrolom,
07:53
central banks were trusted
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verovalo se centralnim bankama
07:56
to take the money-printing away
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da će ukloniti štampanje novca
07:59
if inflation became a threat.
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ukoliko inflacija postane pretnja.
08:03
Secondly, inflation simply never became a threat.
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Drugo,
inflacija nikad nije ni postala pretnja.
inflacija nikad nije ni postala pretnja.
08:09
As you can see, in the United States,
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Kao što vidite, u SAD,
08:11
inflation for most of this period
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inflacija, većinu ovoga perioda,
08:13
remained below average.
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je ostala ispod proseka.
08:16
It was the same elsewhere.
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Tako je bilo i na drugim mestima.
08:20
So how does all this relate to aid?
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Kakve ovo veze ima sa pomaganjem?
08:23
Well, this is where Dorothy
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Ovde stupa Doroti
08:27
and the Mango Tree charity
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i dobrotvorna ustanova Mango Drvo
08:29
that supports her comes in.
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koja je podržava.
08:32
I was at one of their fundraising events
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Bio sam na jednom od događaja
za prikljupanje sredstava
za prikljupanje sredstava
08:34
earlier this year,
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ranije ove godine,
08:35
and I was inspired to give a one-off donation
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i bio sam inspirisan da pružim
jednokratnu donaciju
jednokratnu donaciju
08:39
when I remembered that my firm
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kada sam se setio da moja firma
08:42
offers to match the charitable contributions
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nudi da odgovara
dobrotvornim doprinosima
dobrotvornim doprinosima
08:45
its employees make.
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koje njeni zaposleni učine.
08:48
So think of this:
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Razmislite o ovome:
08:50
Instead of just being able to help Dorothy
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umesto da pomognem Doroti
08:53
and four of her classmates
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i četiri njena druga iz razreda
08:55
to go through secondary school for a few years,
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da idu u srednju školu nekoliko godina,
08:58
I was able to double my contribution.
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mogao sam da udvostručim svoj doprinos.
09:02
Brilliant.
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Genijalno.
09:04
So following that conversation with my daughter,
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Nakon tog razgovora sa svojom ćerkom,
09:10
and seeing the absence of inflation
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videvši izostanak inflacije
09:13
in the face of money-printing,
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u licu štampanja novca,
09:15
and knowing that international aid payments
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i znajući da je novac za međunarodnu pomoć
09:18
were falling at just the wrong time,
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opadao u pogrešno vreme,
09:21
this made me wonder:
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zapitao sam se:
09:25
Could we match
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da li možemo da oponašamo to,
09:27
but just on a much grander scale?
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samo u daleko većim proporcijama?
09:34
Let's call this scheme "Print Aid."
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Nazovimo ovu shemu "Štampanje pomoći."
09:38
And here's how it might work.
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Evo kako bi to moglo da radi.
09:41
Provided it saw little inflation risk from doing so,
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Pod uslovom da je nizak rizik inflacije,
09:46
the central bank would be mandated
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centralna banka bi bila pod mandatom
09:48
to match the government's overseas aid payments
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da plati koliko i vlada,
za međunarodnu novčanu pomoć
za međunarodnu novčanu pomoć
09:51
up to a certain limit.
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do određene granice.
Vlade su planirale da dignu novčanu pomoć
09:54
Governments have been aiming to get aid
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09:56
to 0.7 percent for years,
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do 0.7 procenata godinama,
09:58
so let's set the limit at half of that,
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hajde da postavimo granicu na polovinu,
10:01
0.35 percent of their income.
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0,35 procenata njihovog prihoda.
10:05
So it would work like this: If in a given year
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To bi izgledalo ovako: u datoj godini
10:07
the government gave 0.2 percent of its income
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vlada bi dala 0,2 procenta svojih prihoda
10:09
to overseas aid,
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za međunarodnu pomoć,
10:11
the central bank would simply top it up
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a centralna banka bi povrh toga
10:12
with a further 0.2 percent.
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dodala još 0,2 procenata.
10:15
So far so good.
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Za sada je dobro.
10:19
How risky is this?
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Koliki je rizik u ovome?
10:22
Well, this involves the creation of money
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Ovo uključuje stvaranje novca
10:26
to buy goods, not assets.
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za kupovinu robe, ne imovine.
10:29
It sounds more inflationary already, doesn't it.
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Već zvuči inflatorno, zar ne?
10:32
But there are two important mitigating factors here.
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Ali postoje dva
važna olakšavajuća faktora.
važna olakšavajuća faktora.
10:37
The first is that by definition,
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Prvi je da bi se, po definiciji,
10:40
this money printed would be spent overseas.
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ovaj štampani novac trošio u inostranstvu.
10:45
So it's not obvious how it leads to inflation
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Nije očigledno kako ovo vodi do inflacije
10:49
in the country doing the actual printing
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u zemlji koja štampa novac
10:53
unless it leads to a currency
depreciation of that country.
depreciation of that country.
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osim ukoliko vodi
ka opadanju vrednosti valute u toj zemlji.
ka opadanju vrednosti valute u toj zemlji.
10:58
That is unlikely for the second reason:
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To nije verovatno zbog drugog razloga:
11:01
the scale of the money that would be printed
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količine novca koji bi se štampao
11:04
under this scheme.
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po ovoj šemi.
11:07
So let's think of an example
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Razmislimo o primeru
11:10
where Print Aid was in place
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u kom je sprovedeno Štampanje pomoći
11:14
in the U.S., U.K. and Japan.
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u SAD, Velikoj Britaniji i Japanu.
11:18
To match the aid payments made
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Ukoliko bi ove vlade isplatile pomoć
11:20
by those governments over the last four years,
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u periodu od četiri godine,
11:23
Print Aid would have generated
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Štampanje pomoći bi proizvelo
11:25
200 billion dollars' worth of extra aid.
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200 milijardi dolara dodatne pomoći.
11:30
What would that look like
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Kako bi to izledalo
11:32
in the context of the increase in the money stock
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u kontekstu povećanja zaliha novca
11:36
that had already happened in those countries
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koje se dogodilo u ovim zemljama
11:38
to save the financial system?
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kako bi se spasio finansijski sistem?
11:40
Are you read for this?
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Da li ste spremni za ovo?
11:43
You might struggle to see that at the back,
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Možda ćete imati problema da vidite,
11:45
because the gap is quite small.
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jer je razmak baš mali.
11:49
So what we're saying here
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Srž ove priče je
11:51
is that we took a $3.7 trillion gamble
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da smo se kockali
u vrednosti od 3,7 biliona dolara
u vrednosti od 3,7 biliona dolara
11:55
to save our financial systems,
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kako bismo spasili finansijske sisteme,
11:57
and you know what, it paid off.
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i znate šta, isplatilo se.
11:59
There was no inflation.
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Nije bilo inflacije.
12:02
Are we really saying that it's not worth the risk
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Zar ćemo reći da nije vredno rizika
12:05
to print an extra 200 billion for aid?
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odštampati dodatnih
200 milijardi za pomoć?
200 milijardi za pomoć?
12:10
Would the risks really be that different?
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Da li bi rizici bili toliko drugačiji?
12:12
To me, it's not that clear.
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Meni, to nije toliko jasno.
12:14
What is clear is the impact on aid.
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Ono što je jasno je uticaj na pomoć.
12:17
Even though this is the printing
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Iako je ovo štampanje
12:20
of just three central banks,
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samo tri centralne banke,
12:21
the global aid that's given
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globalna pomoć koja je dobijena
12:25
over this period is up by almost 40 percent.
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tokom ovog perioda je porasla
za oko 40 procenata.
za oko 40 procenata.
12:30
Aid as a proportion of national income
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Pomoć kao srazmera nacionalnog prihoda
12:32
all of a sudden is at a 40-year high.
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je odjednom napredovala za 40 godina.
12:36
Now, we don't get to 0.7 percent.
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Nismo stigli do 0,7 procenata.
12:39
Governments are still incentivized to give.
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Vlade su i dalje motivisane da daju.
12:42
But you know what, that's the
point of a matching scheme.
point of a matching scheme.
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Ali znate šta, to je poenta
sheme uklapanja.
sheme uklapanja.
12:46
So I think what we've learned
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Mislim da je ono što smo naučili
12:50
is that the risks from this money creation scheme
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da su rizici stvaranja novca
ovom shemom
ovom shemom
12:54
are quite modest,
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sasvim skromni,
12:57
but the benefits
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ali da su beneficije,
13:00
are potentially huge.
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potencijalno ogromne.
13:02
Imagine what we could do
with 40 percent more funding.
with 40 percent more funding.
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Zamislite šta bismo mogli da uradimo
sa 40 procenata više novca.
sa 40 procenata više novca.
13:06
We might be able to feed the front row.
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Možda bismo mogli da nahranimo prvi red.
13:11
The thing that I fear, the only thing that I fear,
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Jedina stvar koje se plašim,
13:13
apart from the fact that I've run out of time,
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osim činjenice da mi je isteklo vreme,
13:15
is that the window of opportunity for this idea
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je da je rok za izvođenje ove ideje
13:20
is a short one.
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veoma kratak.
13:23
Today, money creation by central banks
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Danas, novac koji prave centralne banke
13:27
is an accepted policy tool.
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je prihvaćeno oruđe politike.
13:29
That may not always be the case.
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To ne mora uvek biti slučaj.
13:32
Today there are universally agreed aims
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Danas postoje opšteprihvaćeni ciljevi
13:36
for international aid.
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za međunarodnu pomoć.
13:38
That may not always be the case.
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To ne mora uvek biti slučaj.
13:42
Today might be the only time
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Danas je možda jedino vreme
13:44
that these two things coincide,
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kada se ove dve stvari podudaraju,
13:47
such that we can afford the aid
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tako da možemo da priuštimo pomoć
13:51
that we've always aspired to give.
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koju smo uvek težili da damo.
13:55
So, can we print money for international aid?
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Da li možemo da štampamo novac
za međunarodnu pomoć?
za međunarodnu pomoć?
14:03
I seriously believe the question should be,
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Ozbiljno mislim
da bi pitanje trebalo da bude,
da bi pitanje trebalo da bude,
14:07
why not?
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zašto da ne?
14:09
Thank you very much.
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Hvala vam mnogo.
14:12
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Michael Metcalfe - Financial expertA senior managing director and head of global macro strategy at State Street Global Markets, Michael Metcalfe provides high quality capital flow research.
Why you should listen
Michael Metcalfe leads State Street Global Markets Macro Strategy team, focusing on how the behavior of investors and online retailers can help with investment decisions. In this role, he regularly consults with many of the world’s largest institutional investors as well as policy makers. He develops tools to help analyze markets, and regularly advises portfolio managers from some of the world’s largest pension and hedge funds.
Michael Metcalfe | Speaker | TED.com