TED2016
Al Gore: The case for optimism on climate change
Al Gor (Al Gore): Argument za optimizam u vezi sa klimatskim promenama
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Al Gor ima tri pitanja u vezi sa klimatskim promenama i našom budućnošću. Prvo: da li moramo da se menjamo? Svakog dana, zagađenje globalnog zagrevanja zadržava toliko toplotne energije kao kada bi bilo pušteno 400.000 atomskih bombi nalik onoj u Hirošimi. Ova zadržana toplota dovodi do snažnijih oluja i ekstremnijih poplava. On dodaje: "TV vesti su sada svake večeri kao šetnja prirodom kroz knjigu Otkrovenja." Drugo pitanje: da li možemo da se menjamo? Već smo počeli. Konačno, veliko pitanje: da li ćemo se menjati? U ovom izazovnom, inspirativnom govoru, Gor kaže da. "Kada se bilo koji moralni izazov na kraju razloži u binarni izbor između toga šta je ispravno, a šta pogrešno rezultat je predodređen zbog toga ko smo mi kao ljudska bića.", kaže on. "Zbog toga ćemo pobediti."
Al Gore - Climate advocate
Nobel Laureate Al Gore focused the world’s attention on the global climate crisis. Now he’s showing us how we’re moving towards real solutions. Full bio
Nobel Laureate Al Gore focused the world’s attention on the global climate crisis. Now he’s showing us how we’re moving towards real solutions. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
I was excited to be a part
of the "Dream" theme,
of the "Dream" theme,
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Bio sam uzbuđen
što ću biti deo teme "Sanjaj",
što ću biti deo teme "Sanjaj",
00:17
and then I found out I'm leading off
the "Nightmare?" section of it.
the "Nightmare?" section of it.
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a onda sam saznao
da otvaram njenu sekciju "Košmar?"
da otvaram njenu sekciju "Košmar?"
00:20
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
00:23
And certainly there are things
about the climate crisis that qualify.
about the climate crisis that qualify.
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I zasigurno postoje stvari oko
klimatske krize koje se tu mogu svrstati.
klimatske krize koje se tu mogu svrstati.
00:28
And I have some bad news,
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I imam neke loše vesti
00:30
but I have a lot more good news.
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međutim imam mnogo više dobrih vesti.
00:32
I'm going to propose three questions
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Postaviću tri pitanja,
00:36
and the answer to the first one
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a odgovor na prvo
00:39
necessarily involves a little bad news.
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nužno uključuje malo loših vesti.
00:41
But -- hang on, because the answers
to the second and third questions
to the second and third questions
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Ali - sačekajte, jer su odgovori
na drugo i treće pitanje
na drugo i treće pitanje
00:46
really are very positive.
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zaista veoma pozitivni.
00:49
So the first question is,
"Do we really have to change?"
"Do we really have to change?"
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Dakle, prvo pitanje je:
"Da li zaista moramo da se menjamo?"
"Da li zaista moramo da se menjamo?"
00:54
And of course, the Apollo Mission,
among other things
among other things
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I naravno, Apolo misija je,
između ostalog,
između ostalog,
00:59
changed the environmental movement,
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promenila ekološki pokret,
01:01
really launched the modern
environmental movement
environmental movement
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zaista lansirala moderan ekološki pokret
01:04
18 months after this Earthrise picture
was first seen on earth,
was first seen on earth,
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18 meseci nakon što je ova
fotografija izlaska Zemlje prvi put viđena
fotografija izlaska Zemlje prvi put viđena
01:08
the first Earth Day was organized.
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prvi Dan Zemlje je organizovan.
01:11
And we learned a lot about ourselves
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I naučili smo mnogo toga o nama samima
01:14
looking back at our planet from space.
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gledajući nazad na našu planetu
iz svemira.
iz svemira.
01:17
And one of the things that we learned
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I jedna od stvari koje smo naučili
01:19
confirmed what the scientists
have long told us.
have long told us.
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potvrdila je ono
što su nam naučnici davno rekli.
što su nam naučnici davno rekli.
01:21
One of the most essential facts
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Jedna od osvnovnih činjenica
01:23
about the climate crisis
has to do with the sky.
has to do with the sky.
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o klimatskoj krizi ima veze sa nebom.
01:26
As this picture illustrates,
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Kao što ova slika to ilustruje,
01:28
the sky is not the vast
and limitless expanse
and limitless expanse
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nebo nije ogroman
i bezgraničan prostor
i bezgraničan prostor
01:31
that appears when we look up
from the ground.
from the ground.
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koji nam se ukazuje
kada dignemo pogled od tla.
kada dignemo pogled od tla.
01:34
It is a very thin shell of atmosphere
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To je veoma tanak omotač atmosfere
01:38
surrounding the planet.
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koji obmotava našu planetu.
01:40
That right now is the open sewer
for our industrial civilization
for our industrial civilization
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I to je sada otvorena kanalizacija
za našu industrijsku civilizaciju
za našu industrijsku civilizaciju
01:45
as it's currently organized.
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u ovoj sadašnjoj organizaciji.
01:47
We are spewing 110 million tons
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Svakih 24 časa
izbacujemo 110 miliona tona
izbacujemo 110 miliona tona
01:51
of heat-trapping global warming pollution
into it every 24 hours,
into it every 24 hours,
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zagađenja od zadržavanja toplote
globalnog zagrevanja
globalnog zagrevanja
01:56
free of charge, go ahead.
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u atmosferu, potpuno besplatno.
01:58
And there are many sources
of the greenhouse gases,
of the greenhouse gases,
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I postoje mnogi izvori gasova
staklenih bašti,
staklenih bašti,
02:01
I'm certainly not going
to go through them all.
to go through them all.
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i neću prolaziti kroz sve njih.
02:03
I'm going to focus on the main one,
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Fokusiraću se na glavni,
02:05
but agriculture is involved,
diet is involved, population is involved.
diet is involved, population is involved.
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ali poljoprivreda, ishrana
i stanovništvo je uključeno.
i stanovništvo je uključeno.
02:09
Management of forests, transportation,
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Upravljanje šumama, saobraćaj,
02:11
the oceans, the melting of the permafrost.
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okeani, topljenje permafrosta.
02:14
But I'm going to focus
on the heart of the problem,
on the heart of the problem,
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Ali fokusiraću se na srž problema,
a to je činjenica
a to je činjenica
02:16
which is the fact that we still rely
on dirty, carbon-based fuels
on dirty, carbon-based fuels
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da se i dalje oslanjamo
na prljavo gorivo na bazi ugljenika
na prljavo gorivo na bazi ugljenika
02:21
for 85 percent of all the energy
that our world burns every year.
that our world burns every year.
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za 85% ukupne energije
koju sagorimo svake godine.
koju sagorimo svake godine.
02:27
And you can see from this image
that after World War II,
that after World War II,
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I možete videti na ovoj slici da,
nakon II svetskog rata,
nakon II svetskog rata,
02:31
the emission rates
started really accelerating.
started really accelerating.
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stope emisije su počele
zaista da ubrzavaju.
zaista da ubrzavaju.
02:34
And the accumulated amount
of man-made, global warming pollution
of man-made, global warming pollution
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I nagomilane količine zagađenja
globalnog zagrevanja,
globalnog zagrevanja,
koje je čovek napravio
i nalaze se u atmosferi
i nalaze se u atmosferi
02:37
that is up in the atmosphere now
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02:39
traps as much extra heat energy
as would be released
as would be released
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zadržavaju toliku dodatnu količinu
toplotne energije kao kada bi
toplotne energije kao kada bi
02:43
by 400,000 Hiroshima-class
atomic bombs exploding
atomic bombs exploding
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400.000 atomskih bombi, kao u Hirošimi,
eksplodiralo svaka 24 sata
365 dana u toku godine.
365 dana u toku godine.
02:48
every 24 hours, 365 days a year.
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02:52
Fact-checked over and over again,
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Ovo je iznova i iznova
02:54
conservative, it's the truth.
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proverena činjenica i to je istina.
02:56
Now it's a big planet, but --
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Ovo je velika planeta ali -
02:59
(Explosion sound)
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(Zvuk eksplozije)
03:01
that is a lot of energy,
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to je mnogo energije,
03:02
particularly when you multiply it
400,000 times per day.
400,000 times per day.
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naročito kada se pomnoži
400.000 puta svakog dana.
400.000 puta svakog dana.
03:08
And all that extra heat energy
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I sva ta dodatna količina
03:10
is heating up the atmosphere,
the whole earth system.
the whole earth system.
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toplotne energije zagreva atmosferu
i ceo zemljin sistem.
i ceo zemljin sistem.
03:13
Let's look at the atmosphere.
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Pogledajmo atmosferu.
03:15
This is a depiction
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Ovo je prikaz
03:16
of what we used to think of as
the normal distribution of temperatures.
the normal distribution of temperatures.
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našeg nekadašnjeg shvatanja
normalne distribucije temperatura.
normalne distribucije temperatura.
03:22
The white represents
normal temperature days;
normal temperature days;
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Belo predstavlja
dane normalnih temperatura;
dane normalnih temperatura;
03:25
1951-1980 are arbitrarily chosen.
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period od 1951 do 1980
je proizvoljno izabran.
je proizvoljno izabran.
03:28
The blue are cooler than average days,
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Plavo su dani hladniji od prosečnih,
03:30
the red are warmer than average days.
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crveni su dani topliji od prosečnih.
03:32
But the entire curve has moved
to the right in the 1980s.
to the right in the 1980s.
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Ali cela kriva se pomerila u desno
u osamdesetim godinama.
u osamdesetim godinama.
03:36
And you'll see
in the lower right-hand corner
in the lower right-hand corner
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I videćete u donjem desnom uglu
03:38
the appearance of statistically
significant numbers
significant numbers
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pojavu statistički značajnih brojeva
03:41
of extremely hot days.
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ekstremno toplih dana.
03:42
In the 90s, the curve shifted further.
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Devedesetih godina
kriva se još pomerila.
kriva se još pomerila.
03:44
And in the last 10 years,
you see the extremely hot days
you see the extremely hot days
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A u poslednjih 10 godina,
vidimo ekstremno tople dane
vidimo ekstremno tople dane
03:48
are now more numerous
than the cooler than average days.
than the cooler than average days.
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sada mnogo brojnije
u odnosu na dane hladnije od prosečnih.
u odnosu na dane hladnije od prosečnih.
03:52
In fact, they are 150 times more common
on the surface of the earth
on the surface of the earth
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Zapravo, sada su
150 puta učestaliji na Zemlji
150 puta učestaliji na Zemlji
03:57
than they were just 30 years ago.
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nego što su bili pre 30 godina.
04:01
So we're having
record-breaking temperatures.
record-breaking temperatures.
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Tako da imamo temperature
koje obaraju rekorde.
koje obaraju rekorde.
04:04
Fourteen of the 15 of the hottest years
ever measured with instruments
ever measured with instruments
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14 od 15 najtoplijih godina do sada,
izmerene pomoću instrumenata,
izmerene pomoću instrumenata,
04:08
have been in this young century.
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su bile u ovom veku.
04:09
The hottest of all was last year.
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Najtoplija od svih bila je prošla godina.
04:12
Last month was the 371st month in a row
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Prošli mesec je bio 371. mesec zaredom
04:15
warmer than the 20th-century average.
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koji je topliji od prosečnih u 20. veku.
04:17
And for the first time,
not only the warmest January,
not only the warmest January,
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I prvi put, ne samo najtopliji januar,
04:21
but for the first time, it was more
than two degrees Fahrenheit warmer
than two degrees Fahrenheit warmer
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već je bilo više
od jednog stepena Celzijusa toplije
od jednog stepena Celzijusa toplije
04:26
than the average.
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nego prosečno.
04:28
These higher temperatures
are having an effect on animals,
are having an effect on animals,
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Ove visoke temperature
imaju uticaja na životinje,
imaju uticaja na životinje,
04:32
plants, people, ecosystems.
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biljke, ljude, ekosisteme.
04:35
But on a global basis, 93 percent
of all the extra heat energy
of all the extra heat energy
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Ali na globalnom nivou,
93% ukupne dodatne toplotne energije
93% ukupne dodatne toplotne energije
04:40
is trapped in the oceans.
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se zadržava u okeanima.
04:42
And the scientists can measure
the heat buildup
the heat buildup
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I naučnici mogu da izmere
gomilanje toplote
gomilanje toplote
04:44
much more precisely now
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mnogo preciznije sada
04:45
at all depths: deep, mid-ocean,
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na svim dubinama: duboko,
na sredini okeana
na sredini okeana
04:47
the first few hundred meters.
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i na prvih nekoliko stotina metara.
04:49
And this, too, is accelerating.
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I ovo se, takođe, ubrzava.
04:52
It goes back more than a century.
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I to ide unazad više od veka.
04:54
And more than half of the increase
has been in the last 19 years.
has been in the last 19 years.
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Više od polovine tog povećanja
se desilo u poslednjih 19 godina.
se desilo u poslednjih 19 godina.
04:58
This has consequences.
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Ovo ostavlja posledice.
04:59
The first order of consequence:
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Prvi stepen posledica:
05:01
the ocean-based storms get stronger.
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okeanske oluje postaju snažnije.
05:03
Super Typhoon Haiyan
went over areas of the Pacific
went over areas of the Pacific
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Super tajfun Haijan
otišao je preko oblasti Pacifika,
otišao je preko oblasti Pacifika,
05:06
five and a half degrees Fahrenheit
warmer than normal
warmer than normal
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skoro 15 stepeni Celzijusa
topliji nego što je inače,
topliji nego što je inače,
05:09
before it slammed into Tacloban,
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pre nego što se srušio u Takloban
05:11
as the most destructive storm
ever to make landfall.
ever to make landfall.
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i to je bila najrazornija oluja do sada
koja je stigla do kopna.
koja je stigla do kopna.
05:15
Pope Francis, who has made
such a difference to this whole issue,
such a difference to this whole issue,
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Papa Franja, koji je imao
značajan uticaj na ovu temu,
značajan uticaj na ovu temu,
05:20
visited Tacloban right after that.
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posetio je Takloban ubrzo posle toga.
05:22
Superstorm Sandy went over
areas of the Atlantic
areas of the Atlantic
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Superoluja Sendi
otišla je preko oblasti Atlantika,
otišla je preko oblasti Atlantika,
05:25
nine degrees warmer than normal
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dvanaest stepeni toplija
nego što je inače,
nego što je inače,
05:27
before slamming into
New York and New Jersey.
New York and New Jersey.
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pre nego što se srušila
u Njujork i Nju Džerzi.
u Njujork i Nju Džerzi.
05:31
The second order of consequences
are affecting all of us right now.
are affecting all of us right now.
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Drugi stepen posledica
utiče na sve nas upravo sada.
utiče na sve nas upravo sada.
05:35
The warmer oceans are evaporating
much more water vapor into the skies.
much more water vapor into the skies.
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Topliji okeani isparavaju
mnogo više vodene pare u nebo.
mnogo više vodene pare u nebo.
05:40
Average humidity worldwide
has gone up four percent.
has gone up four percent.
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Prosečna vlažnost na svetu
se popela više od 4%.
se popela više od 4%.
05:44
And it creates these atmospheric rivers.
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I stvara ove atmosferske reke.
05:47
The Brazilian scientists
call them "flying rivers."
call them "flying rivers."
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Brazilski naučnici ih zovu "leteće reke".
05:50
And they funnel all of that
extra water vapor over the land
extra water vapor over the land
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One preusmeravaju svu tu
dodatnu vodenu paru preko zemlje
dodatnu vodenu paru preko zemlje
05:55
where storm conditions trigger
these massive record-breaking downpours.
these massive record-breaking downpours.
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gde uslovi za oluju pokreću
ove masivne rekordne pljuskove.
ove masivne rekordne pljuskove.
06:00
This is from Montana.
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Ovo je bilo u Montani.
06:03
Take a look at this storm last August.
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Pogledajte ovu oluju od prošlog avgusta
06:05
As it moves over Tucson, Arizona.
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kako se kreće preko Tusona u Arizoni.
06:08
It literally splashes off the city.
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Bukvalno prska grad.
06:11
These downpours are really unusual.
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Ovakvi pljuskovi su zaista neuobičajeni.
06:15
Last July in Houston, Texas,
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Prošlog jula u Hjustonu u Teksasu,
06:18
it rained for two days,
162 billion gallons.
162 billion gallons.
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ispljuštalo je 613 milijardi litara
u dva dana.
u dva dana.
06:21
That represents more than two days
of the full flow of Niagara Falls
of the full flow of Niagara Falls
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To predstavlja više od dva dana
Nijagarinih vodopada pod punim pritiskom
Nijagarinih vodopada pod punim pritiskom
06:25
in the middle of the city,
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u centru grada,
06:26
which was, of course, paralyzed.
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koji se, naravno, tako paralizovao.
06:28
These record downpours are creating
historic floods and mudslides.
historic floods and mudslides.
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Ovi rekordni pljuskovi stvaraju
istorijske poplave i klizišta.
istorijske poplave i klizišta.
06:32
This one is from Chile last year.
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Ovo je iz Čilea, prošle godine.
06:37
And you'll see that warehouse going by.
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Vidite kako skladište prolazi pored.
06:40
There are oil tankers cars going by.
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Cisterne naftnih vozila takođe prolaze.
06:42
This is from Spain last September,
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Ovo je iz Španije, prošlog septembra.
06:44
you could call this the running
of the cars and trucks, I guess.
of the cars and trucks, I guess.
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Ovo možemo nazvati kretanjem
automobila i kamiona, pretpostavljam.
automobila i kamiona, pretpostavljam.
06:49
Every night on the TV news now
is like a nature hike
is like a nature hike
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TV vesti su sada svake večeri
kao šetnja prirodom
kao šetnja prirodom
06:52
through the Book of Revelation.
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kroz knjigu Otkrovenja.
06:54
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
06:56
I mean, really.
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Mislim, zaista.
06:59
The insurance industry
has certainly noticed,
has certainly noticed,
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Industrija osiguranja
je svakako zabeležila
je svakako zabeležila
07:01
the losses have been mounting up.
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kako se gubici gomilaju.
07:03
They're not under any illusions
about what's happening.
about what's happening.
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Nemaju nikakve iluzije
o tome šta se dešava.
o tome šta se dešava.
07:07
And the causality requires
a moment of discussion.
a moment of discussion.
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A uzročnost zahteva trenutak diskusije.
07:13
We're used to thinking of linear cause
and linear effect --
and linear effect --
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Naviknuti smo da razmišljamo -
linearni uzrok i linearna posledica:
linearni uzrok i linearna posledica:
jedan uzrok, jedna posledica.
07:16
one cause, one effect.
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07:17
This is systemic causation.
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Ovo je prouzrokovano sistemski.
07:21
As the great Kevin Trenberth says,
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Kao što veliki Kevin Trenbert kaže:
07:23
"All storms are different now.
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"Sve oluje su sada drugačije.
07:24
There's so much extra energy
in the atmosphere,
in the atmosphere,
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Toliko se dodatne energije
nalazi u atmosferi,
nalazi u atmosferi,
07:27
there's so much extra water vapor.
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da ima toliko dodatne vodene pare.
07:28
Every storm is different now."
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Svaka oluja je sada drugačija."
07:31
So, the same extra heat pulls
the soil moisture out of the ground
the soil moisture out of the ground
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Tako da, ista dodatna toplota
izvlači vlažnost iz zemljišta
izvlači vlažnost iz zemljišta
07:36
and causes these deeper, longer,
more pervasive droughts
more pervasive droughts
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i prouzrokuje ove dublje,
duže i obuhvatnije suše
duže i obuhvatnije suše
07:40
and many of them are underway right now.
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i mnoge od njih su u toku sada.
07:42
It dries out the vegetation
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Isušuju vegetaciju
07:44
and causes more fires
in the western part of North America.
in the western part of North America.
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i izazivaju više požara
u zapadnom delu severne Amerike.
u zapadnom delu severne Amerike.
07:47
There's certainly been evidence
of that, a lot of them.
of that, a lot of them.
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Svakako postoje
mnogobrojni dokazi o tome.
mnogobrojni dokazi o tome.
07:51
More lightning,
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Više munja,
07:52
as the heat energy builds up,
a considerable amount
a considerable amount
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kako se toplotna energija gomila,
pojavljuje se
pojavljuje se
07:55
of additional lightning also.
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znatna količina dodatnih munja, takođe.
07:58
These climate-related disasters also have
geopolitical consequences
geopolitical consequences
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Ove klimatske katastrofe takođe
ostavljaju geopoličitke posledice
ostavljaju geopoličitke posledice
08:05
and create instability.
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i stvaraju nestabilnost.
08:07
The climate-related historic drought
that started in Syria in 2006
that started in Syria in 2006
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Klimatska istorijska suša
koja je počela u Siriji 2006.
koja je počela u Siriji 2006.
08:12
destroyed 60 percent
of the farms in Syria,
of the farms in Syria,
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uništila je 60% farmi u Siriji,
08:15
killed 80 percent of the livestock,
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ubila 80% stoke,
08:18
and drove 1.5 million climate refugees
into the cities of Syria,
into the cities of Syria,
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i dovela 1,5 miliona
klimatskih izbeglica u gradove Sirije,
klimatskih izbeglica u gradove Sirije,
08:22
where they collided with another
1.5 million refugees
1.5 million refugees
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koji su se sudarili sa drugih
1,5 miliona izbeglica
1,5 miliona izbeglica
08:25
from the Iraq War.
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2016
iz rata u Iraku.
08:27
And along with other factors,
that opened the gates of Hell
that opened the gates of Hell
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Zajedno sa drugim faktorima,
to je otvorilo vrata Pakla
to je otvorilo vrata Pakla
08:32
that people are trying to close now.
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koja ljudi sada pokušavaju da zatvore.
08:35
The US Defense Department has long warned
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Američko ministarstvo za odbranu
je davno upozorilo
je davno upozorilo
08:37
of consequences from the climate crisis,
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na posledice klimatske krize,
08:40
including refugees,
food and water shortages
food and water shortages
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kao što su izbeglice,
nedostatak hrane i vode
nedostatak hrane i vode
08:44
and pandemic disease.
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i pandemije bolesti.
08:46
Right now we're seeing microbial diseases
from the tropics spread
from the tropics spread
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Sada vidimo bolesti mikroba
koje se iz tropskih krajeva
koje se iz tropskih krajeva
08:51
to the higher latitudes;
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šire na više visine;
08:52
the transportation revolution has had
a lot to do with this.
a lot to do with this.
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revolucija u transportu
ima mnogo veze sa ovim.
ima mnogo veze sa ovim.
08:56
But the changing conditions
change the latitudes in the areas
change the latitudes in the areas
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Ali promenljivi uslovi
menjaju opseg u oblastima
menjaju opseg u oblastima
09:00
where these microbial diseases
can become endemic
can become endemic
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gde mikrobijalne bolesti
mogu postati endemske
mogu postati endemske
09:03
and change the range of the vectors,
like mosquitoes and ticks that carry them.
like mosquitoes and ticks that carry them.
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i promeniti vektorski opseg,
kao i komarci i krpelji koji ih prenose.
kao i komarci i krpelji koji ih prenose.
09:08
The Zika epidemic now --
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Kada govorimo o Zika epidemiji -
mi smo bolje pozicionirani
ovde u severnoj Americi
ovde u severnoj Americi
09:12
we're better positioned in North America
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09:14
because it's still a little too cool
and we have a better public health system.
and we have a better public health system.
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zato što je još uvek malo hladnije
i imamo bolji javni zdravstveni sistem.
i imamo bolji javni zdravstveni sistem.
09:18
But when women in some regions
of South and Central America
of South and Central America
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Ali kada se žene u nekim oblastima
južne i centralne Amerike
južne i centralne Amerike
09:23
are advised not to get pregnant
for two years --
for two years --
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savetuju da ne zatrudne dve godine -
09:25
that's something new,
that ought to get our attention.
that ought to get our attention.
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to je nešto novo,
i trebalo bi da dobije našu pažnju.
i trebalo bi da dobije našu pažnju.
09:29
The Lancet, one of the two greatest
medical journals in the world,
medical journals in the world,
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"Lanset", jedan od dva najveća
medicinska žurnala na svetu,
medicinska žurnala na svetu,
09:33
last summer labeled this
a medical emergency now.
a medical emergency now.
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prošlog leta je ovo obeležio
kao medicinsko vanredno stanje.
kao medicinsko vanredno stanje.
09:37
And there are many factors because of it.
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I postoje mnogi faktori usled toga.
09:40
This is also connected
to the extinction crisis.
to the extinction crisis.
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To je takođe povezano
sa krizom izumiranja.
sa krizom izumiranja.
09:42
We're in danger of losing 50 percent
of all the living species on earth
of all the living species on earth
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U opasnosti smo da izgubimo
50% svih živih vrsta na Zemlji
50% svih živih vrsta na Zemlji
09:46
by the end of this century.
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do kraja ovog veka.
09:47
And already, land-based plants and animals
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I kopnene biljke i životinje
09:50
are now moving towards the poles
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1648
se već sele prema polovima
09:52
at an average rate of 15 feet per day.
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u prosečnoj stopi od 5 metara u toku dana.
09:56
Speaking of the North Pole,
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1310
Kada već govorimo o severnom polu,
09:57
last December 29, the same storm
that caused historic flooding
that caused historic flooding
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5270
29. decembra prošle godine,
ista oluja koja je prouzrokovala
ista oluja koja je prouzrokovala
istorijske poplave
na američkom srednjem zapadu
na američkom srednjem zapadu
10:03
in the American Midwest,
190
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1649
10:04
raised temperatures at the North Pole
191
592962
2183
podigla je temperature na severnom polu
10:07
50 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than normal,
192
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10 stepeni Celzijusa
toplije nego što je normalno,
toplije nego što je normalno,
10:09
causing the thawing of the North Pole
193
597823
2438
i time prouzrokovala
odmrzavanje severnog pola
odmrzavanje severnog pola
10:12
in the middle of the long,
dark, winter, polar night.
dark, winter, polar night.
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4612
usred duge, mračne, zimske, polarne noći.
10:16
And when the land-based ice
of the Arctic melts,
of the Arctic melts,
195
604921
3582
A kada se kopneni led Artkika topi,
10:20
it raises sea level.
196
608527
1718
podiže nivo mora.
10:22
Paul Nicklen's beautiful photograph
from Svalbard illustrates this.
from Svalbard illustrates this.
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3745
Predivna fotografija Pola Niklena
iz Svalbarda ilustruje ovo.
iz Svalbarda ilustruje ovo.
10:26
It's more dangerous coming off Greenland
198
614474
1960
Opasnije je kada dolazi sa Grinlenda,
10:28
and particularly, Antarctica.
199
616458
2006
a naročito Antarktika.
10:30
The 10 largest risk cities
for sea-level rise by population
for sea-level rise by population
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Deset najvećih rizičnih gradova
od podizanja nivoa mora, za stanovništvo,
od podizanja nivoa mora, za stanovništvo,
10:35
are mostly in South and Southeast Asia.
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su uglavnom na jugu i jugoistoku Azije.
10:37
When you measure it by assets at risk,
number one is Miami:
number one is Miami:
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4109
Kada se mere po riziku imovine,
na prvom mestu je Majami:
na prvom mestu je Majami:
10:42
three and a half trillion dollars at risk.
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2623
tri ipo biliona dolara u riziku.
10:44
Number three: New York and Newark.
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1671
Na trećem mestu: Njujork i Nevark.
10:46
I was in Miami last fall
during the supermoon,
during the supermoon,
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3296
Bio sam u Majamiju prošle jeseni
za vreme supermeseca,
za vreme supermeseca,
10:49
one of the highest high-tide days.
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3111
jednog od najjačih dana visoke plime.
10:52
And there were fish from the ocean
swimming in some of the streets
swimming in some of the streets
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3132
I ribe iz okeana su plivale ulicama
10:56
of Miami Beach and Fort Lauderdale
208
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2151
Majami Biča i Fort Loderdejla
10:58
and Del Rey.
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646226
1174
i Del Reja.
10:59
And this happens regularly
during the highest-tide tides now.
during the highest-tide tides now.
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I ovo se sada dešava redovno
za vreme najviših plima.
za vreme najviših plima.
11:02
Not with rain -- they call it
"sunny-day flooding."
"sunny-day flooding."
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Ali ne sa kišom - zovu je
"sunčana poplava."
"sunčana poplava."
11:05
It comes up through the storm sewers.
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penje se iz olujne kanalizacije.
11:09
And the Mayor of Miami
speaks for many when he says
speaks for many when he says
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I gradonačelnik Majamija
govori u ime mnogih kada kaže
govori u ime mnogih kada kaže
11:14
it is long past time this can be viewed
through a partisan lens.
through a partisan lens.
214
662024
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davno je prošlo vreme kada se ovo
može gledati kroz stranačka sočiva.
može gledati kroz stranačka sočiva.
11:18
This is a crisis
that's getting worse day by day.
that's getting worse day by day.
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Ovo je kriza
koja se pogoršava iz dana u dan.
koja se pogoršava iz dana u dan.
11:21
We have to move beyond partisanship.
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Moramo da se odmaknemo
od političkih stranaka.
od političkih stranaka.
11:23
And I want to take a moment
to honor these House Republicans --
to honor these House Republicans --
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3262
Želim na trenutak da odam počast
ovim vladajućim republikancima -
ovim vladajućim republikancima -
11:27
(Applause)
218
675062
1054
(Aplauz)
11:28
who had the courage last fall
219
676140
2833
koji su prošle jeseni imali hrabrosti
11:30
to step out and take a political risk,
220
678997
4434
da iskoraknu i naprave politički rizik
11:35
by telling the truth
about the climate crisis.
about the climate crisis.
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2739
rekavši istinu o klimatskoj krizi.
11:38
So the cost of the climate
crisis is mounting up,
crisis is mounting up,
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I troškovi klimatske krize
se nagomilavaju,
se nagomilavaju,
11:41
there are many of these aspects
I haven't even mentioned.
I haven't even mentioned.
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postoje mnogi ovi aspekti
koje nisam ni spomenuo.
koje nisam ni spomenuo.
11:45
It's an enormous burden.
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1973
To je ogroman teret.
11:47
I'll mention just one more,
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Spomenuću samo još jedan
11:48
because the World Economic Forum
last month in Davos,
last month in Davos,
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4727
jer je svetski ekonomski forum
prošlog meseca u Davosu,
prošlog meseca u Davosu,
11:53
after their annual survey
of 750 economists,
of 750 economists,
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posle godišnje ankete 750 ekonomista,
11:56
said the climate crisis is now
the number one risk
the number one risk
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rekao da je klimatska kriza
sada rizik br. 1
sada rizik br. 1
11:59
to the global economy.
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1829
za globalnu ekonomiju.
12:01
So you get central bankers
230
709205
1318
Tako imate centralne bankare
12:02
like Mark Carney, the head
of the UK Central Bank,
of the UK Central Bank,
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2770
kao što je Mark Karni,
rukovodilac Centralne Banke UK
rukovodilac Centralne Banke UK
12:05
saying the vast majority
of the carbon reserves are unburnable.
of the carbon reserves are unburnable.
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4036
koji govori kako je ogromna količina
rezervi ugljenika nesagoriva.
rezervi ugljenika nesagoriva.
12:09
Subprime carbon.
233
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1746
Nelikvidan ugljenik.
12:11
I'm not going to remind you what happened
with subprime mortgages,
with subprime mortgages,
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3291
Neću vas podsećati šta se desilo
sa nelikvidnim hipotekama,
sa nelikvidnim hipotekama,
12:14
but it's the same thing.
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ali isto je.
12:16
If you look at all of the carbon fuels
that were burned
that were burned
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724112
2715
Ako pogledate svo ugljenikovo gorivo
koje je sagorelo
koje je sagorelo
12:18
since the beginning
of the industrial revolution,
of the industrial revolution,
237
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2670
od početka industrijske revolucije,
12:21
this is the quantity burned
in the last 16 years.
in the last 16 years.
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3516
ovo je količina koja je sagorela
u poslednjih 16 godina.
u poslednjih 16 godina.
12:25
Here are all the ones that are proven
and left on the books,
and left on the books,
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Ovde su svi koji su dokazani
a levo, po podacima,
a levo, po podacima,
12:28
28 trillion dollars.
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1788
28 biliona dolara.
12:30
The International Energy Agency
says only this amount can be burned.
says only this amount can be burned.
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4209
Internacionalna Energetska Agencija
kaže da samo ova količina može da sagori.
kaže da samo ova količina može da sagori.
12:34
So the rest, 22 trillion dollars --
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2889
Tako da je ostatak, 22 biliona dolara -
12:37
unburnable.
243
745646
1197
nesagorivo.
12:39
Risk to the global economy.
244
747303
2233
Rizik za globalnu ekonomiju.
12:41
That's why divestment movement
makes practical sense
makes practical sense
245
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3037
Zato pokret lišavanja
ima praktičnog smisla
ima praktičnog smisla
12:44
and is not just a moral imperative.
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2580
i nije samo moralno važan.
12:47
So the answer to the first question,
"Must we change?"
"Must we change?"
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4170
Pa je odgovor na prvo pitanje,
"Moramo li se menjati?"
"Moramo li se menjati?"
12:51
is yes, we have to change.
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1924
da, moramo se menjati.
12:53
Second question, "Can we change?"
249
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1752
Drugo pitanje: "Možemo li se menjati?"
12:55
This is the exciting news!
250
763143
2321
Ovo je uzbudljiva vest!
12:57
The best projections
in the world 16 years ago
in the world 16 years ago
251
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3505
Pre 16 godina,
najbolja predviđanja na svetu
najbolja predviđanja na svetu
13:01
were that by 2010, the world
would be able to install
would be able to install
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769017
4031
su bila da će svet do 2010
biti u mogućnosti da uvede
biti u mogućnosti da uvede
13:05
30 gigawatts of wind capacity.
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30 gigavati vetrovog kapaciteta.
13:07
We beat that mark
by 14 and a half times over.
by 14 and a half times over.
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Prestigli smo tu oznaku 14 ipo puta.
13:12
We see an exponential curve
for wind installations now.
for wind installations now.
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3784
Vidimo eksponencijalnu krivu
za vetrane instalacije sada.
za vetrane instalacije sada.
13:16
We see the cost coming down dramatically.
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3575
Vidimo da se troškovi dramatično smanjuju.
13:19
Some countries -- take Germany,
an industrial powerhouse
an industrial powerhouse
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Neke države - kao npr. Nemačka,
industrijska sila
industrijska sila
13:22
with a climate not that different
from Vancouver's, by the way --
from Vancouver's, by the way --
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3368
sa klimom, ne toliko drugačijom
od ove u Vankuveru,
od ove u Vankuveru,
13:26
one day last December,
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1635
jednog dana prošlog decembra,
13:28
got 81 percent of all its energy
from renewable resources,
from renewable resources,
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3438
imala je 81% ukupne energije
iz obnovljivih izvora
iz obnovljivih izvora
13:31
mainly solar and wind.
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1633
uglavnom sunca i vetra.
13:33
A lot of countries are getting
more than half on an average basis.
more than half on an average basis.
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3301
I mnoge države dobijaju
više od pola u proseku.
više od pola u proseku.
13:36
More good news:
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1158
Još dobrih vesti:
13:37
energy storage,
from batteries particularly,
from batteries particularly,
264
805636
3023
skladištenje energije,
naročito iz akumulatora,
naročito iz akumulatora,
13:40
is now beginning to take off
265
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1594
počinje da uzima maha
13:42
because the cost has been
coming down very dramatically
coming down very dramatically
266
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3793
jer su se troškovi dramatično smanjivali
13:46
to solve the intermittency problem.
267
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1773
kako bi rešili problem isprekidanosti.
13:47
With solar, the news is even
more exciting!
more exciting!
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2511
Što se tiče sunčeve energije,
vesti su još uzbudljivije!
vesti su još uzbudljivije!
13:50
The best projections 14 years ago
were that we would install
were that we would install
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818450
3349
Pre 14 godina, najbolja predviđanja
su bila da ćemo sprovesti
su bila da ćemo sprovesti
13:53
one gigawatt per year by 2010.
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2547
jedan gigavat po godini do 2010.
13:56
When 2010 came around,
we beat that mark by 17 times over.
we beat that mark by 17 times over.
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Kada je došla 2010.
prestigli smo tu cifru 17 puta.
prestigli smo tu cifru 17 puta.
14:01
Last year, we beat it by 58 times over.
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Prošle godine, prestigli smo je 58 puta.
14:04
This year, we're on track
to beat it 68 times over.
to beat it 68 times over.
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Ove godine smo na putu
da je prestignemo 68 puta.
da je prestignemo 68 puta.
14:07
We're going to win this.
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835911
1190
I uspećemo u tome.
14:09
We are going to prevail.
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837125
1734
Preovladaćemo.
Ova eksponencijalna kriva
kod solarne energije
kod solarne energije
14:10
The exponential curve on solar
is even steeper and more dramatic.
is even steeper and more dramatic.
276
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je još strmija i dramatičnija.
14:14
When I came to this stage 10 years ago,
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842990
1929
Kada sam došao na ovu binu pre 10 godina,
14:16
this is where it was.
278
844943
1395
kriva je bila ovde.
14:18
We have seen a revolutionary breakthrough
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846894
3554
Bili smo svedoci revolucionarnog otkrića
14:22
in the emergence
of these exponential curves.
of these exponential curves.
280
850472
3189
pojave ovih eksponencijalnih krivih.
14:25
(Applause)
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853685
3224
(Aplauz)
14:28
And the cost has come down
10 percent per year
10 percent per year
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856933
3497
I trošak se smanjio 10% godišnje
14:32
for 30 years.
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860454
1299
za 30 godina.
14:33
And it's continuing to come down.
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861777
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I nastavlja da se smanjuje.
14:36
Now, the business community
has certainly noticed this,
has certainly noticed this,
285
864099
2646
I poslovna zajednica
je ovo svakako primetila,
je ovo svakako primetila,
14:38
because it's crossing
the grid parity point.
the grid parity point.
286
866769
2809
jer prelazi tačku na mreži pariteta.
14:41
Cheaper solar penetration rates
are beginning to rise.
are beginning to rise.
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869602
3252
Prodor jeftinijih solarnih stopa
počinju da se pojavljuju.
počinju da se pojavljuju.
14:44
Grid parity is understood
as that line, that threshold,
as that line, that threshold,
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872878
3516
Mreža pariteta se objašnjava
kao ta linija, taj prag
kao ta linija, taj prag
14:48
below which renewable electricity
is cheaper than electricity
is cheaper than electricity
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876418
3874
ispod kojeg je obnovljiva struja
jeftinija od struje koja se dobija
jeftinija od struje koja se dobija
14:52
from burning fossil fuels.
290
880316
2218
sagorevanjem fosilnih goriva.
14:54
That threshold is a little bit
like the difference
like the difference
291
882558
2693
Taj prag je otprilike kao razlika
14:57
between 32 degrees Fahrenheit
and 33 degrees Fahrenheit,
and 33 degrees Fahrenheit,
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885275
4110
između 32 i 33 stepeni Farenhajta,
15:01
or zero and one Celsius.
293
889409
1586
ili nula i 1 stepen Celzijusa.
15:03
It's a difference of more than one degree,
294
891019
2024
To je razlika veća od jednog stepena,
15:05
it's the difference between ice and water.
295
893067
2701
to je razlika između leda i vode.
15:07
And it's the difference between markets
that are frozen up,
that are frozen up,
296
895792
3944
To je razlika između
tržišta koje je zamrznuto,
tržišta koje je zamrznuto,
15:11
and liquid flows of capital
into new opportunities for investment.
into new opportunities for investment.
297
899760
4532
i protoka kapitala
u nove prilike za investicije.
u nove prilike za investicije.
15:16
This is the biggest
new business opportunity
new business opportunity
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904316
3605
Ovo je najveća nova poslovna prilika
15:19
in the history of the world,
299
907945
1532
u istoriji sveta,
15:21
and two-thirds of it
is in the private sector.
is in the private sector.
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909501
3148
i njene dve trećine
su u privatnom sektoru.
su u privatnom sektoru.
15:24
We are seeing an explosion
of new investment.
of new investment.
301
912673
3436
Vidimo eksploziju novih investicija.
15:28
Starting in 2010, investments globally
in renewable electricity generation
in renewable electricity generation
302
916133
5568
Od 2010. godine investicije, globalno,
u obnovljive električne generacije
u obnovljive električne generacije
15:33
surpassed fossils.
303
921725
1533
prestigle su fosilne.
15:35
The gap has been growing ever since.
304
923282
2416
I raskorak od tada raste.
15:37
The projections for the future
are even more dramatic,
are even more dramatic,
305
925722
2948
Predviđanja za budućnost
su još dramatičnija,
su još dramatičnija,
15:40
even though fossil energy
is now still subsidized
is now still subsidized
306
928694
3599
iako je fosilna energija
još uvek subvencionisana
još uvek subvencionisana
15:44
at a rate 40 times larger than renewables.
307
932317
3227
u meri 40 puta većoj od obnovljive.
15:47
And by the way, if you add
the projections for nuclear on here,
the projections for nuclear on here,
308
935568
4090
Inače, ako biste ovde dodali
predviđanja i za nuklearnu energiju,
predviđanja i za nuklearnu energiju,
15:51
particularly if you assume
that the work many are doing
that the work many are doing
309
939682
2621
naročito ako pretpostavimo
posao koji mnogi rade
posao koji mnogi rade
15:54
to try to break through to safer
and more acceptable,
and more acceptable,
310
942327
2714
u pokušajima da se probiju
do bezbednije i prihvatljivije
do bezbednije i prihvatljivije
15:57
more affordable forms of nuclear,
311
945065
1839
i dostupnije oblike nuklearne energije,
15:58
this could change even more dramatically.
312
946928
2443
ovo bi moglo da se promeni
još dramatičnije.
još dramatičnije.
16:01
So is there any precedent
for such a rapid adoption
for such a rapid adoption
313
949934
2956
Dakle, da li postoji ikakav
presedan za tako brzo usvajanje
presedan za tako brzo usvajanje
16:04
of a new technology?
314
952914
1729
nove tehnologije?
16:06
Well, there are many,
but let's look at cell phones.
but let's look at cell phones.
315
954667
2460
Postoje mnogi, ali hajde da pogledamo
mobilne telefone.
mobilne telefone.
16:09
In 1980, AT&T, then Ma Bell,
316
957151
3373
Godine 1980. AT&T pa onda Ma Bell,
angažovali su MekKinsija
angažovali su MekKinsija
16:12
commissioned McKinsey to do
a global market survey
a global market survey
317
960548
2393
da uradi globalno marketinško istraživanje
16:14
of those clunky new mobile phones
that appeared then.
that appeared then.
318
962965
3616
onih budžastih novih mobilnih telefona
koji su se tada pojavili.
koji su se tada pojavili.
16:18
"How many can we sell
by the year 2000?" they asked.
by the year 2000?" they asked.
319
966605
3163
"Koliko možemo da ih prodamo
do 2000. godine?" pitali su.
do 2000. godine?" pitali su.
16:21
McKinsey came back and said, "900,000."
320
969792
2568
MekKinsi im je odgovorio "900.000".
16:24
And sure enough,
when the year 2000 arrived,
when the year 2000 arrived,
321
972384
2072
I svakako, kad je došla 2000. godina,
16:26
they did sell 900,000 --
in the first three days.
in the first three days.
322
974480
2578
oni jesu prodali 900.000 -
u prva tri dana.
u prva tri dana.
16:29
And for the balance of the year,
they sold 120 times more.
they sold 120 times more.
323
977082
3912
Na godišnjem bilansu,
prodali su 120 puta više.
prodali su 120 puta više.
16:33
And now there are more cell connections
than there are people in the world.
than there are people in the world.
324
981018
4376
I sada postoji više mobilnih veza
nego što postoji ljudi na svetu.
nego što postoji ljudi na svetu.
16:37
So, why were they not only wrong,
but way wrong?
but way wrong?
325
985418
4469
Zašto su, ne samo pogrešili,
nego toliko pogrešili?
nego toliko pogrešili?
16:41
I've asked that question myself, "Why?"
326
989911
2400
Pita sam se i sam, "Zašto?"
16:44
(Laughter)
327
992335
1003
(Smeh)
16:45
And I think the answer is in three parts.
328
993362
2233
I mislim da je odgovor u tri dela.
16:48
First, the cost came down much faster
than anybody expected,
than anybody expected,
329
996122
3389
Prvo, troškovi su se smanjili
mnogo više nego što je bilo ko očekivao,
mnogo više nego što je bilo ko očekivao,
16:51
even as the quality went up.
330
999535
2507
čak i kada je kvalitet rastao.
16:54
And low-income countries, places
that did not have a landline grid --
that did not have a landline grid --
331
1002066
4272
I države sa niskim prihodom,
mesta koja nisu imala
mesta koja nisu imala
pokrivenost fiksne telefonije -
preskočila su na novu tehnologiju.
preskočila su na novu tehnologiju.
16:58
they leap-frogged to the new technology.
332
1006362
2228
17:00
The big expansion has been
in the developing counties.
in the developing counties.
333
1008614
3064
Velika ekspanzija je bila
u zemljama u razvoju.
u zemljama u razvoju.
17:03
So what about the electricity grids
in the developing world?
in the developing world?
334
1011702
3748
Pa šta je onda sa električnom pokrivenošću
u zemljama u razvoju?
u zemljama u razvoju?
17:07
Well, not so hot.
335
1015474
1730
Pa, nije baš aktuelna.
17:09
And in many areas, they don't exist.
336
1017228
2298
I u mnogim oblastima, ne postoji.
17:11
There are more people
without any electricity at all in India
without any electricity at all in India
337
1019550
3146
U Indiji postoji više ljudi
bez ikakve električne energije
bez ikakve električne energije
17:14
than the entire population
of the United States of America.
of the United States of America.
338
1022720
3122
nego cela populacija
Sjedinjenih Američkih Država.
Sjedinjenih Američkih Država.
17:17
So now we're getting this:
339
1025866
1504
I tako dobijamo ovo:
17:19
solar panels on grass huts
340
1027394
1838
solarne panele na kolibama od trske
17:21
and new business models
that make it affordable.
that make it affordable.
341
1029256
2938
i nove poslovne modele
kojima su one dostupne.
kojima su one dostupne.
17:24
Muhammad Yunus financed
this one in Bangladesh with micro-credit.
this one in Bangladesh with micro-credit.
342
1032218
4885
Muhamed Junus je finansirao ovu
u Bangladešu sa mikro-kreditom.
u Bangladešu sa mikro-kreditom.
17:29
This is a village market.
343
1037127
1708
Ovo je seoska pijaca.
17:30
Bangladesh is now the fastest-deploying
country in the world:
country in the world:
344
1038859
2890
Bangladeš je sada država
najbržeg razvitka u svetu:
najbržeg razvitka u svetu:
17:33
two systems per minute
on average, night and day.
on average, night and day.
345
1041773
2412
dva sistema u minuti,
u proseku, noć i dan.
u proseku, noć i dan.
I imamo sve što nam je potrebno:
17:36
And we have all we need:
346
1044209
1189
17:37
enough energy from the Sun
comes to the Earth
comes to the Earth
347
1045422
2292
dovoljno sunčane energije dolazi do Zemlje
17:39
every hour to supply the full world's
energy needs for an entire year.
energy needs for an entire year.
348
1047738
5363
svakog sata, da snabde celokupnu energiju
sveta za jednu celu godinu.
sveta za jednu celu godinu.
17:45
It's actually a little bit
less than an hour.
less than an hour.
349
1053125
2173
Zapravo je malo manje od jednog sata.
17:47
So the answer to the second question,
"Can we change?"
"Can we change?"
350
1055322
3332
Tako da odgovor na drugo pitanje
"Da li možemo da se menjamo?"
"Da li možemo da se menjamo?"
17:50
is clearly "Yes."
351
1058678
1923
je očigledno "Da".
17:52
And it's an ever-firmer "yes."
352
1060625
2772
I to je najjače do sada "Da".
17:55
Last question, "Will we change?"
353
1063421
2608
Poslednje pitanje,
"Da li ćemo se promeniti?"
"Da li ćemo se promeniti?"
17:58
Paris really was a breakthrough,
354
1066053
1992
Pariz je zaista bio prodor,
18:00
some of the provisions are binding
355
1068069
1663
neke od odredbi su obavezujuće
18:01
and the regular reviews will matter a lot.
356
1069756
2038
i redovni izveštaji će mnogo značiti.
18:03
But nations aren't waiting,
they're going ahead.
they're going ahead.
357
1071818
2251
Ali nacije ne čekaju, one idu napred.
18:06
China has already announced
that starting next year,
that starting next year,
358
1074093
2515
Kina je već najavila
da će od početka sledeće godine
da će od početka sledeće godine
18:08
they're adopting a nationwide
cap and trade system.
cap and trade system.
359
1076632
2983
usvojiti sistem "trgovine zagađenjem"
širom države.
širom države.
18:11
They will likely link up
with the European Union.
with the European Union.
360
1079639
3143
Verovatno će se spojiti
sa Evropskom Unijom.
sa Evropskom Unijom.
18:14
The United States
has already been changing.
has already been changing.
361
1082806
2492
Sjedinjene Države se već menjaju.
18:17
All of these coal plants were proposed
362
1085322
2050
Sve ove fabrike na ugalj
koje su bile predviđene
koje su bile predviđene
18:19
in the next 10 years and canceled.
363
1087396
2530
u narednih 10 godina su otkazane.
18:21
All of these existing
coal plants were retired.
coal plants were retired.
364
1089950
2919
Sve ove postojeće
fabrike na ugalj su se povukle.
fabrike na ugalj su se povukle.
18:24
All of these coal plants have had
their retirement announced.
their retirement announced.
365
1092893
3017
Sve ove fabrike na ugalj
su najavile povlačenje.
su najavile povlačenje.
18:27
All of them -- canceled.
366
1095934
2328
Sve - otkazane.
18:30
We are moving forward.
367
1098286
1490
Idemo napred.
18:31
Last year -- if you look at
all of the investment
all of the investment
368
1099800
2468
Ako pogledate
sve prošlogodišnje investicije
sve prošlogodišnje investicije
18:34
in new electricity generation
in the United States,
in the United States,
369
1102292
2943
u nove električne generacije
u Sjedinjenim Državama,
u Sjedinjenim Državama,
18:37
almost three-quarters
was from renewable energy,
was from renewable energy,
370
1105259
2666
skoro tri četvrtine
su bile u obnovljive energije,
su bile u obnovljive energije,
18:39
mostly wind and solar.
371
1107949
2512
uglavnom vetar i sunce.
18:42
We are solving this crisis.
372
1110485
3147
Rešavamo krizu.
18:45
The only question is:
how long will it take to get there?
how long will it take to get there?
373
1113656
4899
Jedino je pitanje:
koliko će nam trebati da dođemo do toga?
koliko će nam trebati da dođemo do toga?
18:50
So, it matters that a lot
of people are organizing
of people are organizing
374
1118579
4617
Stoga je veoma važno
što se ljudi organizuju
što se ljudi organizuju
18:55
to insist on this change.
375
1123220
2138
da insistiraju na ovoj promeni.
18:57
Almost 400,000 people
marched in New York City
marched in New York City
376
1125382
3784
Skoro 400.000 ljudi
je marširalo gradom Njujorka
je marširalo gradom Njujorka
19:01
before the UN special session on this.
377
1129190
2847
pre nego što je počela
specijalna sesija UN-a o ovome.
specijalna sesija UN-a o ovome.
19:04
Many thousands, tens of thousands,
378
1132061
2004
Mnogo stotina, desetine stotina,
19:06
marched in cities around the world.
379
1134089
2873
marširali su gradovima širom sveta.
19:08
And so, I am extremely optimistic.
380
1136986
4143
I zato sam ekstremno optimističan.
19:13
As I said before,
we are going to win this.
we are going to win this.
381
1141153
2555
Kao što sam rekao ranije, uspećemo u tome.
19:15
I'll finish with this story.
382
1143732
1967
Završiću ovom pričom.
19:18
When I was 13 years old,
383
1146218
2592
Kada sam imao 13 godina,
19:20
I heard that proposal by President Kennedy
384
1148834
3431
čuo sam predlog predsednika Kenedija
19:24
to land a person on the Moon
and bring him back safely
and bring him back safely
385
1152289
2551
da iskrcaju osobu na Mesec
i da je bezbedno vrate,
i da je bezbedno vrate,
19:26
in 10 years.
386
1154864
1165
kroz 10 godina.
19:28
And I heard adults
of that day and time say,
of that day and time say,
387
1156053
2984
I čuo sam odrasle u to vreme kako govore,
19:31
"That's reckless, expensive,
may well fail."
may well fail."
388
1159061
3517
"To je nesmotreno, skupo,
verovatno će propasti."
verovatno će propasti."
19:34
But eight years and two months later,
389
1162602
2177
Ali osam godina i dva meseca kasnije,
19:36
in the moment that Neil Armstrong
set foot on the Moon,
set foot on the Moon,
390
1164803
3262
u trenutku kada je Nil Armstrong
zakoračio na Mesec,
zakoračio na Mesec,
19:40
there was great cheer that went up
in NASA's mission control in Houston.
in NASA's mission control in Houston.
391
1168089
4590
bilo je veliko klicanje
u Nasinom kontrolnom centru u Hjustonu.
u Nasinom kontrolnom centru u Hjustonu.
19:44
Here's a little-known fact about that:
392
1172703
2460
Evo jedne manje poznate
činjenice u vezi sa tim:
činjenice u vezi sa tim:
19:47
the average age of the systems engineers,
393
1175187
2205
prosečna starost sistemskih inženjera,
19:49
the controllers in the room
that day, was 26,
that day, was 26,
394
1177416
3176
kontrolora u toj prostoriji tog dana,
je bila 26,
je bila 26,
19:52
which means, among other things,
395
1180616
1559
što znači da, između ostalog,
19:54
their age, when they heard
that challenge, was 18.
that challenge, was 18.
396
1182199
3250
kada su čuli taj izazov,
imali su 18 godina.
imali su 18 godina.
19:57
We now have a moral challenge
397
1185473
3202
Sada imamo moralni izazov
20:00
that is in the tradition of others
that we have faced.
that we have faced.
398
1188699
3530
koji je u tradiciji sa ostalima
sa kojima smo se susreli.
sa kojima smo se susreli.
20:04
One of the greatest poets
of the last century in the US,
of the last century in the US,
399
1192253
3654
Jedan od najvećih pesnika
prošlog veka u Sjedinjenim Državama
prošlog veka u Sjedinjenim Državama
20:07
Wallace Stevens,
400
1195931
1349
Volas Stivens,
napisao je stih koji je i dalje u meni:
20:09
wrote a line that has stayed with me:
401
1197304
1818
20:11
"After the final 'no,'
there comes a 'yes,'
there comes a 'yes,'
402
1199146
2483
"Nakon konačnog "ne",
dolazi "da",
dolazi "da",
20:13
and on that 'yes',
the future world depends."
the future world depends."
403
1201653
2981
i od tog "da",
budući svet zavisi."
budući svet zavisi."
20:16
When the abolitionists
started their movement,
started their movement,
404
1204658
2285
Kada su abolicionisti
osnovali svoj pokret,
osnovali svoj pokret,
20:18
they met with no after no after no.
405
1206967
2207
susreli su se sa ne nakon ne nakon ne.
20:21
And then came a yes.
406
1209198
1276
I onda je došlo da.
20:22
The Women's Suffrage
and Women's Rights Movement
and Women's Rights Movement
407
1210498
2389
Pravo glasa žena i Desničarski pokret žena
20:24
met endless no's, until finally,
there was a yes.
there was a yes.
408
1212911
3595
beskrajno se sreo sa ne
dok konačno nije bilo da.
dok konačno nije bilo da.
20:28
The Civil Rights Movement,
the movement against apartheid,
the movement against apartheid,
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Pokret prava građana,
pokret protiv rasne diskriminacije,
pokret protiv rasne diskriminacije,
20:31
and more recently, the movement
for gay and lesbian rights
for gay and lesbian rights
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i skorašnji, pokret
za prava gejeva i lezbejki
za prava gejeva i lezbejki
20:34
here in the United States and elsewhere.
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ovde u Sjedinjenim Državama i drugde.
20:37
After the final "no" comes a "yes."
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Posle konačnog "ne" dolazi "da".
20:39
When any great moral challenge
is ultimately resolved
is ultimately resolved
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Kada se bilo koji moralni izazov
na kraju razloži
na kraju razloži
20:44
into a binary choice
between what is right and what is wrong,
between what is right and what is wrong,
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1232726
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u binarni izbor između toga
šta je ispravno, a šta pogrešno
šta je ispravno, a šta pogrešno
20:48
the outcome is fore-ordained
because of who we are as human beings.
because of who we are as human beings.
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rezultat je predodređen
zbog toga ko smo mi kao ljudska bića.
zbog toga ko smo mi kao ljudska bića.
20:52
Ninety-nine percent of us,
that is where we are now
that is where we are now
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Nas 99%; zato smo tu gde smo sada
20:56
and it is why we're going to win this.
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i zato ćemo uspeti u tome.
20:59
We have everything we need.
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1938
Imamo sve što nam je potrebno.
21:01
Some still doubt that we have
the will to act,
the will to act,
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Neki još uvek sumnjaju
da imamo volje da delamo,
da imamo volje da delamo,
21:04
but I say the will to act is itself
a renewable resource.
a renewable resource.
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ali ja kažem da je sama volja
za delovanjem obnovljiv izvor.
za delovanjem obnovljiv izvor.
21:09
Thank you very much.
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Hvala vam mnogo.
21:10
(Applause)
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3471
(Aplauz)
21:47
Chris Anderson: You've got this incredible
combination of skills.
combination of skills.
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Kris Anderson: Imate neverovatnu
kombinaciju veština.
kombinaciju veština.
21:50
You've got this scientist mind
that can understand
that can understand
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2961
Imate um naučnika za razumevanje
21:53
the full range of issues,
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2301
celog spektra problema,
21:55
and the ability to turn it
into the most vivid language.
into the most vivid language.
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3652
i sposobnost da ih pretvorite
u najživopisniji jezik.
u najživopisniji jezik.
21:59
No one else can do that,
that's why you led this thing.
that's why you led this thing.
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1307512
2883
Niko drugi to ne može,
zato vi to predvodite.
zato vi to predvodite.
22:02
It was amazing to see it 10 years ago,
it was amazing to see it now.
it was amazing to see it now.
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1310419
3411
Bilo je neverovatno
videti to pre 10 godina, a i sada.
videti to pre 10 godina, a i sada.
22:05
Al Gore: Well, you're nice
to say that, Chris.
to say that, Chris.
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1313854
2175
Al Gor: Pa, zaista lepe reči, Kris.
22:08
But honestly, I have a lot
of really good friends
of really good friends
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1316053
3161
Ali iskreno, imam mnogo
zaista dobrih prijatelja
zaista dobrih prijatelja
22:11
in the scientific community
who are incredibly patient
who are incredibly patient
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1319238
3719
u naučnoj zajednici
koji su neverovatno strpljivi
koji su neverovatno strpljivi
22:14
and who will sit there
and explain this stuff to me
and explain this stuff to me
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2771
i koji će sedeti tu
i objasniti mi te stvari
i objasniti mi te stvari
22:17
over and over and over again
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1325776
1334
iznova i iznova
22:19
until I can get it
into simple enough language
into simple enough language
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1327134
3596
dok ih ne prevedem
u dovoljno jednostavan jezik
u dovoljno jednostavan jezik
22:22
that I can understand it.
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1330754
1212
koji mogu da razumem.
22:23
And that's the key to trying
to communicate.
to communicate.
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1331990
2928
I to je ključ u pokušavanju komuniciranja.
22:27
CA: So, your talk. First part: terrifying,
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3685
KA: Dakle, Vaš govor.
Prvi deo: prestravljujući,
Prvi deo: prestravljujući,
22:31
second part: incredibly hopeful.
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1339206
1937
drugi deo: neverovatno obećavajući.
22:33
How do we know that all those graphs,
all that progress, is enough
all that progress, is enough
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1341810
5301
Kako da znamo da su svi ti grafikoni,
sav taj napredak - dovoljni
sav taj napredak - dovoljni
22:39
to solve what you showed
in the first part?
in the first part?
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1347135
2728
da reše ono što ste pokazali u prvom delu?
22:41
AG: I think that the crossing --
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1349887
3528
AG: Mislim da je ukrštanje -
22:45
you know, I've only been
in the business world for 15 years.
in the business world for 15 years.
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1353439
3013
znate, u poslovnom svetu sam 15 godina.
22:48
But one of the things I've learned
is that apparently it matters
is that apparently it matters
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1356476
3278
Ali jedna stvar koju sam naučio
je da je očigledno bitno
je da je očigledno bitno
22:51
if a new product or service
is more expensive
is more expensive
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1359778
3164
ako je nov proizvod, ili usluga, skuplji
22:54
than the incumbent, or cheaper than.
445
1362966
2154
od zvaničnog, ili jeftiniji od njega.
22:57
Turns out, it makes a difference
if it's cheaper than.
if it's cheaper than.
446
1365144
2555
Ispostavilo se da ima razlike
ako je jeftiniji.
ako je jeftiniji.
22:59
(Laughter)
447
1367723
1095
(Smeh)
23:00
And when it crosses that line,
448
1368842
2694
I kada pređe tu granicu,
23:03
then a lot of things really change.
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1371560
1896
onda se mnoge stvari promene.
23:05
We are regularly surprised
by these developments.
by these developments.
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1373480
2945
Redovno se iznenađujemo ovakvim razvojima.
23:08
The late Rudi Dornbusch,
the great economist said,
the great economist said,
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1376449
2547
Pokojni Rudi Dornbuš,
veliki ekonomista, je rekao:
veliki ekonomista, je rekao:
23:11
"Things take longer to happen
then you think they will,
then you think they will,
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1379020
2796
"Stvarima je potrebno više vremena
da se dese, nego što mislite,
da se dese, nego što mislite,
23:13
and then they happen much faster
than you thought they could."
than you thought they could."
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1381840
2958
a onda se dese mnogo brže
nego što ste mislili da mogu."
nego što ste mislili da mogu."
23:16
I really think that's where we are.
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1384822
1698
Zaista mislim da smo i mi tu.
23:18
Some people are using the phrase
"The Solar Singularity" now,
"The Solar Singularity" now,
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1386544
3677
Neki ljudi sada koriste frazu
"solarna jedinstvenost"
"solarna jedinstvenost"
23:22
meaning when it gets
below the grid parity,
below the grid parity,
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1390245
3293
misleći da, kada dospemo
ispod mrežnog pariteta,
ispod mrežnog pariteta,
23:25
unsubsidized in most places,
457
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2048
nesubvencionisani u većini mesta,
23:27
then it's the default choice.
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1395634
1642
to je jedini izbor.
23:29
Now, in one of the presentations
yesterday, the jitney thing,
yesterday, the jitney thing,
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5990
U jednoj prezentaciji juče,
priča oko taksista,
priča oko taksista,
23:35
there is an effort to use
regulations to slow this down.
regulations to slow this down.
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1403314
5107
postoje napori da se koriste
propisi kako bi se ovo usporilo.
propisi kako bi se ovo usporilo.
23:40
And I just don't think it's going to work.
461
1408445
3139
Ali ja mislim da to neće uspeti.
23:44
There's a woman in Atlanta, Debbie Dooley,
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1412608
2396
Jedna žena u Atlanti, Debi Duli,
23:47
who's the Chairman
of the Atlanta Tea Party.
of the Atlanta Tea Party.
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1415028
2081
je predsedavajuća partije "Atlanta Tea".
23:49
They enlisted her
in this effort to put a tax
in this effort to put a tax
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1417133
2177
Nju su zadužili, u tim naporima,
23:51
on solar panels and regulations.
465
1419334
2123
da uvede takse i propise
na solarne panele.
na solarne panele.
23:53
And she had just put
solar panels on her roof
solar panels on her roof
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1421481
2119
Pri tom je i sama postavila
solarne panele na svoj krov
solarne panele na svoj krov
23:55
and she didn't understand the request.
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1423624
1866
i nije razumela šta se od nje traži.
23:57
(Laughter)
468
1425514
1765
(Smeh)
23:59
And so she went and formed
an alliance with the Sierra Club
an alliance with the Sierra Club
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1427303
3478
Pa je tako formirala
udruženje sa klubom Siera
udruženje sa klubom Siera
24:02
and they formed a new organization
called the Green Tea Party.
called the Green Tea Party.
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1430805
4053
i oni su osnovali novu organizaciju
pod nazivom "Green Tea".
pod nazivom "Green Tea".
24:06
(Laughter)
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1434882
1002
(Smeh)
24:07
(Applause)
472
1435908
1001
(Aplauz)
24:08
And they defeated the proposal.
473
1436933
1488
I oni su poništili predlog.
24:10
So, finally, the answer
to your question is,
to your question is,
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1438445
3226
I konačno, odgovor na Vaše pitanje je,
24:13
this sounds a little corny
and maybe it's a cliché,
and maybe it's a cliché,
475
1441695
3033
ovo zvuči malo otrcano i možda je i kliše,
24:16
but 10 years ago -- and Christiana
referred to this --
referred to this --
476
1444752
3516
ali pre 10 godina - i Kristijana
je ovo spomenula -
je ovo spomenula -
24:20
there are people in this audience
who played an incredibly significant role
who played an incredibly significant role
477
1448292
5907
bilo je ljudi u ovoj publici
koji su imali neverovatno značajnu ulogu
koji su imali neverovatno značajnu ulogu
24:26
in generating those exponential curves.
478
1454223
2801
u dobijanju onih eksponencijalnih krivih.
24:29
And it didn't work out economically
for some of them,
for some of them,
479
1457048
2524
I nekima nije uspelo ekonomski,
24:31
but it kick-started
this global revolution.
this global revolution.
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3054
ali se pokrenula globalna revolucija.
24:34
And what people in this audience do now
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1462674
3779
Ali šta će ljudi u ovoj publici
24:38
with the knowledge
that we are going to win this.
that we are going to win this.
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1466477
2505
uraditi sada sa saznanjem
da ćemo uspeti u tome.
da ćemo uspeti u tome.
24:41
But it matters a lot how fast we win it.
483
1469006
4230
Ali veoma je važno
koliko brzo ćemo uspeti.
koliko brzo ćemo uspeti.
24:45
CA: Al Gore, that was incredibly powerful.
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2357
KA: Al, ovo je bilo izuzetno jako.
24:47
If this turns out to be the year,
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1475641
1675
Ako se ispostavi da je ovo godina
24:49
that the partisan thing changes,
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1477340
2828
kada će se promeniti pitanje stranaka,
24:52
as you said, it's no longer
a partisan issue,
a partisan issue,
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1480192
3378
kao što ste rekli,
nije više pitanje stranaka,
nije više pitanje stranaka,
24:55
but you bring along people
from the other side together,
from the other side together,
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1483594
4166
i dovodite ljude sa druge strane, takođe,
sa naučnom potkovanošću,
24:59
backed by science, backed by these kinds
of investment opportunities,
of investment opportunities,
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3285
koji su podržani
ovakvim investicionim prilikama,
ovakvim investicionim prilikama,
25:03
backed my reason that you win the day --
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1491093
2108
predznanjem da ćete uspeti -
25:05
boy, that's really exciting.
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2359
kako je to samo uzbudljivo.
25:07
Thank you so much.
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1495608
1168
Hvala Vam mnogo.
25:08
AG: Thank you so much
for bringing me back to TED.
for bringing me back to TED.
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2507
AG: Hvala Vama mnogo
što ste me doveli ponovo na TED.
što ste me doveli ponovo na TED.
25:11
Thank you!
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Hvala!
25:12
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Al Gore - Climate advocateNobel Laureate Al Gore focused the world’s attention on the global climate crisis. Now he’s showing us how we’re moving towards real solutions.
Why you should listen
Former Vice President Al Gore is co-founder and chairman of Generation Investment Management. While he’s is a senior partner at Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, and a member of Apple, Inc.’s board of directors, Gore spends the majority of his time as chair of The Climate Reality Project, a nonprofit devoted to solving the climate crisis.
He is the author of the bestsellers Earth in the Balance, An Inconvenient Truth, The Assault on Reason, Our Choice: A Plan to Solve the Climate Crisis, and most recently, The Future: Six Drivers of Global Change. He is the subject of the Oscar-winning documentary An Inconvenient Truth and is the co-recipient, with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, of the Nobel Peace Prize for 2007 for “informing the world of the dangers posed by climate change.”
Gore was elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in 1976, 1978, 1980 and 1982 and the U.S. Senate in 1984 and 1990. He was inaugurated as the 45th Vice President of the United States on January 20, 1993, and served eight years.
Al Gore | Speaker | TED.com