TED Salon Brightline Initiative
Dan Ariely: How to change your behavior for the better
Den Arijeli (Dan Ariely): Kako da promenite ponašanje nabolje
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Koji je najbolji način da navedete ljude da promene svoje ponašanje? U ovom duhovitom govoru koji obiluje informacijama, psiholog Den Arijeli istražuje zašto donosimo loše odluke čak i onda kad znamo da ne bi trebalo to da radimo - i objašnjava nekoliko trikova zbog kojih bismo mogli da postupamo ispravno (čak i iz pogrešnog razloga).
Dan Ariely - Behavioral economist
The dismal science of economics is not as firmly grounded in actual behavior as was once supposed. In "Predictably Irrational," Dan Ariely told us why. Full bio
The dismal science of economics is not as firmly grounded in actual behavior as was once supposed. In "Predictably Irrational," Dan Ariely told us why. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Hi.
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Zdravo.
00:14
You might have noticed
that I have half a beard.
that I have half a beard.
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Verovatno ste primetili
da imam bradu do pola lica.
da imam bradu do pola lica.
00:17
It's not because I lost a bet.
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Nisam izgubio opkladu.
00:19
Many years ago, I was badly burned.
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Pre mnogo godina,
imao sam teške opekotine.
imao sam teške opekotine.
00:22
Most of my body is covered with scars,
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Veći deo mog tela je prekriven ožiljcima,
00:24
including the right side of my face.
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uključujući i desnu stranu mog lica.
00:26
I just don't have hair.
That's just how it happened.
That's just how it happened.
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Prosto nemam dlake.
Tako se prosto dogodilo.
Tako se prosto dogodilo.
00:29
It looks symmetrical, but almost.
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Izgleda simetrično, ali jedva.
00:31
Anyway, now that we discussed facial hair,
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Kako god, sad kad smo razgovarali
o dlakama na licu,
o dlakama na licu,
00:35
let's move to social science.
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pređimo na društvene nauke.
00:37
And in particular, I want us to think
about where is the potential for humanity
about where is the potential for humanity
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A naročito želim da razmislimo
o mogućem potencijalu čovečanstva
o mogućem potencijalu čovečanstva
00:44
and where we are now.
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i o tome gde smo sada.
00:45
And if you think about it,
there's a big gap
there's a big gap
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A ako razmislite o tome,
postoji veliki jaz
postoji veliki jaz
između toga gde mislimo
da bismo mogli da budemo i gde jesmo
da bismo mogli da budemo i gde jesmo
00:47
between where we think we could be
and where we are,
and where we are,
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00:50
and it's in all kinds of areas.
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i tako je u svim oblastima.
00:52
So let me ask you:
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Dozvolite da vas upitam:
00:54
How many of you in the last month
have eaten more than you think you should?
have eaten more than you think you should?
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koliko vas je u proteklih mesec dana
pojelo više nego što mislite da je dobro?
pojelo više nego što mislite da je dobro?
00:58
Just kind of general. OK.
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Samo uopšteno. U redu.
01:00
How many of you in the last month have
exercised less than you think you should?
exercised less than you think you should?
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Koliko vas je u proteklih mesec dana
radilo vežbe manje nego što bi trebalo?
radilo vežbe manje nego što bi trebalo?
01:05
OK, and for how many of you
has raising your hands twice
has raising your hands twice
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U redu. A za koliko vas
je podizanje ruku dva puta
je podizanje ruku dva puta
01:08
been the most exercise you got today?
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najveća fizička aktivnost za danas?
01:10
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
01:13
How many of you have ever
texted while driving?
texted while driving?
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Koliko vas je pisalo
poruke dok ste vozili?
poruke dok ste vozili?
01:18
OK, we're getting honest.
Let's test your honesty.
Let's test your honesty.
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U redu. Postajemo iskreni.
Testirajmo vašu iskrenost.
Testirajmo vašu iskrenost.
01:21
How many people here in the last month
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Koliko ljudi ovde u proteklih mesec dana
01:23
have not always washed your hands
when you left the bathroom?
when you left the bathroom?
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nije uvek opralo ruke
nakon upotrebe kupatila?
nakon upotrebe kupatila?
01:26
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
01:28
A little less honest.
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Malo manje iskrenosti.
01:29
By the way, it's interesting how we're
willing to admit texting and driving
willing to admit texting and driving
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Usput, zanimljivo je kako smo voljni
da priznamo pisanje poruka tokom vožnje,
da priznamo pisanje poruka tokom vožnje,
01:33
but not washing our hands,
that's difficult.
that's difficult.
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ali ne i nepranje ruku, to je teško.
01:35
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
01:37
We can go on and on.
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Možemo ovako u beskraj.
01:38
The problem, the topic is
that there's lots of things
that there's lots of things
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Problem, tema je da postoji mnogo toga
01:41
when we know what we could do --
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kada znamo kako bismo mogli da postupimo -
01:43
we could be very, very different,
but we're acting in a very different way.
but we're acting in a very different way.
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mogli bismo da budemo veoma drugačiji,
ali postupamo veoma drugačije.
ali postupamo veoma drugačije.
A kada razmišljamo
o tome kako da premostimo jaz,
o tome kako da premostimo jaz,
01:47
And when we think
how do we bridge that gap,
how do we bridge that gap,
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01:49
the usual answer is, "Just tell people."
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uobičajen odgovor glasi:
„Samo recite ljudima.”
„Samo recite ljudima.”
01:52
For example, just tell people
that texting and driving is dangerous.
that texting and driving is dangerous.
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Na primer, samo recite ljudima
da je pisanje poruka dok voze opasno.
da je pisanje poruka dok voze opasno.
01:55
Did you know it's dangerous?
You should stop doing it.
You should stop doing it.
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Da li znate da je opasno?
Nemojte to više da radite.
Nemojte to više da radite.
Kažete ljudima da je nešto opasno
i oni će da prestanu.
i oni će da prestanu.
01:58
You tell people something
is dangerous, and they will stop.
is dangerous, and they will stop.
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Pisanje poruka dok vozite je jedan primer.
02:01
Texting and driving is one example.
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02:02
Another very sad example
is that in the US,
is that in the US,
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Drugi veoma tužan primer je da u SAD-u
02:05
we spend between seven
and eight hundred million dollars a year
and eight hundred million dollars a year
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godišnje trošimo između
sedam i osam stotina miliona dolara
sedam i osam stotina miliona dolara
02:08
on what's called "financial literacy."
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na ono što nazivamo
„finansijskom pismenošću”.
„finansijskom pismenošću”.
02:11
And what do we get
as a consequence of that?
as a consequence of that?
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A šta dobijamo kao posledicu?
02:13
There was recently a study that looked
at all the research ever to be conducted
at all the research ever to be conducted
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Nedavno je objavljena studija koja je
posmatrala sva postojeća istraživanja
posmatrala sva postojeća istraživanja
o finansijskoj pismenosti -
nešto što se naziva meta-analizom.
nešto što se naziva meta-analizom.
02:17
on financial literacy --
what's called a meta-analysis.
what's called a meta-analysis.
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02:20
And what they found is that
when you tell people,
when you tell people,
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A otkrili su da kada kažete ljudima,
kada ih podučite finansijskoj pismenosti,
02:23
you teach them financial literacy,
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02:25
they learn and they remember.
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oni nauče i zapamte.
02:27
But do people execute? Not so much.
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Međutim, da li je upražnjavaju? Ne baš.
02:30
The improvement is about
three or four percent
three or four percent
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Napredak je oko tri do četiri procenta
02:33
immediately after the course,
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neposredno po završetku kursa,
02:35
and then it goes down.
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a potom opada.
02:36
And at the end of the day,
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A kad se sve svede,
02:38
the improvement is about 0.1 percent --
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napredak je oko 0,1 procenat -
02:42
not zero, but as humanly close
to zero as possible.
to zero as possible.
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nije nula, ali je najbliže nuli
što je ljudski moguće.
što je ljudski moguće.
02:45
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
02:48
So that's the sad news.
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Ovo su tužne vesti.
02:49
The sad news is, giving
information to people
information to people
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Tužne vesti su da pružanje
informacija ljudima
informacija ljudima
02:52
is just not a good recipe
to change behavior.
to change behavior.
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prosto nije dobar recept
za izmenu ponašanja.
za izmenu ponašanja.
02:55
What is?
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Šta jeste?
02:56
Well, social science
has made lots of strides,
has made lots of strides,
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Pa, društvene nauke
su napravile više iskoraka,
su napravile više iskoraka,
02:59
and the basic insight is that
if we want to change behavior,
if we want to change behavior,
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a osnovni zaključak glasi da,
ako želimo da promenimo ponašanje,
ako želimo da promenimo ponašanje,
03:02
we have to change the environment.
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moramo da promenimo sredinu.
03:05
The right way is not to change people,
it's to change the environment.
it's to change the environment.
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Ispravan način nije u izmeni ljudi,
već u izmeni sredine.
već u izmeni sredine.
03:08
And I want to present a very simpleminded
model of how to think about it:
model of how to think about it:
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Želim da vam predstavim veoma uprošćen
model kako da razmišljate o tome:
model kako da razmišljate o tome:
03:12
it's to think about behavioral change
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razmišljajmo o promeni ponašanja
03:14
in the same way that we think about
sending a rocket to space.
sending a rocket to space.
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na isti način na koji razmišljamo
o slanju rakete u svemir.
o slanju rakete u svemir.
03:17
When we think about
sending a rocket to space,
sending a rocket to space,
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Kada razmišljamo o slanju rakete u svemir,
važne su dve glavne stvari.
03:20
we want to do two main things.
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03:21
The first one is to reduce friction.
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Prva je umanjenje trenja.
03:24
We want to take the rocket
and have as little friction as possible
and have as little friction as possible
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Želimo da imamo raketu
sa najmanjom mogućom količinom trenja
sa najmanjom mogućom količinom trenja
03:27
so it's the most aerodynamic possible.
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kako bi bila najaerodinamičnija.
03:29
And the second thing is we want
to load as much fuel as possible,
to load as much fuel as possible,
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A druga stvar je da želimo
da utovarimo što je više goriva moguće,
da utovarimo što je više goriva moguće,
03:32
to give it the most amount
of motivation, energy to do its task.
of motivation, energy to do its task.
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kako bi imala najveću količinu motivacije,
energije da odradi zadatak.
energije da odradi zadatak.
03:37
And behavior change is the same thing.
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A isto je i sa promenom ponašanja.
03:39
So let's first talk about friction.
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Zato prvo razgovarajmo o trenju.
03:43
In this particular case study
I'll tell you about,
I'll tell you about,
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U ovoj naročitoj studiji slučaja
o kojoj ću da vam govorim
o kojoj ću da vam govorim
03:46
there's a pharmacy, an online pharmacy.
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imamo apoteku, internet apoteku.
Zamislite da pođete kod izabranog lekara.
03:49
Imagine you go to your doctor.
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03:51
You have a long-term illness,
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Imate dugoročnu bolest,
03:53
your doctor prescribes
to you a medication,
to you a medication,
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doktor vam prepiše lek,
03:55
you sign up for this online pharmacy
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pretplatite se na internet apoteku
03:58
and you get your medication
in the mail every 90 days.
in the mail every 90 days.
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i lek vam stiže poštom svakih 90 dana.
04:01
Every 90 days, medication,
medication, medication.
medication, medication.
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Svakih 90 dana, lek, lek, lek.
04:04
And this online pharmacy
wants to switch people
wants to switch people
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A ova internet apoteka
želi da preusmeri ljude
želi da preusmeri ljude
04:07
from branded medication
to generic medication.
to generic medication.
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sa leka poznatog proizvođača
na generički lek.
na generički lek.
04:11
So they send people letters, and they say,
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Stoga ljudima šalju pisma u kojima kažu:
04:13
"Please, please, please,
switch to generics.
switch to generics.
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„Molimo, molimo, molimo vas
pređite na generički.
pređite na generički.
Uštedećete novac, mi ćemo uštedeti novac,
vaš poslodavac će uštedeti novac.”
vaš poslodavac će uštedeti novac.”
04:15
You will save money, we will save money,
your employer will save money."
your employer will save money."
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04:19
And what do people do?
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I šta će ljudi da urade?
04:20
Nothing.
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Ništa.
04:21
So they try all kinds of things
and nothing happens.
and nothing happens.
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Pokušavaju razne stvari,
ali ništa se ne dešava.
ali ništa se ne dešava.
04:24
So for one year, they give people
an amazing offer.
an amazing offer.
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Zato na godinu dana nude ljudima
izvanrednu ponudu.
izvanrednu ponudu.
04:27
They send people a letter, and they say,
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Šalju ljudima pisma u kojima kažu:
„Ako sada pređete na generički lek,
biće besplatan godinu dana.”
biće besplatan godinu dana.”
04:29
"If you switch to generics now,
it will be free for a whole year."
it will be free for a whole year."
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04:33
Free for a whole year. Amazing!
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Besplatan godinu dana. Sjajno!
04:35
What percentage of people
do you think switched?
do you think switched?
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Šta mislite, koliki procent
ljudi je prešao na novi lek?
ljudi je prešao na novi lek?
04:39
Less than 10 percent.
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Manje od deset procenata.
04:41
At this point, they show up to my office.
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U ovom trenutku
su došli u moju kancelariju.
su došli u moju kancelariju.
04:43
And they come to complain.
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A došli su da se žale.
04:45
Why did they pick me?
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Zašto su odabrali mene?
04:46
I wrote a couple of papers
on the "allure of free."
on the "allure of free."
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Napisao sam nekoliko radova
o „čarima besplatnog”.
o „čarima besplatnog”.
04:49
In those papers, we showed
that if you reduce the price of something
that if you reduce the price of something
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U tim radovima smo pokazali da,
ako umanjite cenu nečega
ako umanjite cenu nečega
04:52
for, let's say, 10 cents to one cent,
nothing much happens.
nothing much happens.
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sa, recimo, deset centi na cent,
ništa se značajno neće desiti.
ništa se značajno neće desiti.
Ako je umanjite sa jednog na nula centi,
e, tad su ljudi uzbuđeni.
e, tad su ljudi uzbuđeni.
04:55
You reduce it from one cent to zero,
now people get excited.
now people get excited.
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04:58
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
05:00
And they said, "Look, we read these
papers on 'free,' we gave 'free.'
papers on 'free,' we gave 'free.'
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Rekli su: „Čitali smo radove
o 'besplatnom', pa smo davali 'besplatno'.
o 'besplatnom', pa smo davali 'besplatno'.
05:03
Not working as we expected.
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Ne deluje kako smo očekivali.
05:04
What's going on?"
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O čemu se radi?”
05:06
I said, "You know, maybe
it's a question of friction."
it's a question of friction."
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Rekao sam: „Znate,
možda je trenje u pitanju.”
možda je trenje u pitanju.”
05:09
They said, "What do you mean?"
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Upitali su: „Na šta misliš?"
Rekao sam: „Počeli su
sa poznatim proizvođačem.
sa poznatim proizvođačem.
05:11
I said, "People are starting with branded.
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05:13
They can do nothing and end with branded.
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Mogu da ne urade ništa i ostanu sa njim.
05:15
To move to generic, they have to choose
generic over branded,
generic over branded,
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Kako bi prešli na generički, moraju
da odaberu generički naspram brendiranog,
da odaberu generički naspram brendiranog,
05:19
but they also have to do something.
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ali takođe moraju i da urade nešto.
05:21
They have to return the letter."
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Moraju da odgovore na pismo.”
05:22
So this is what we call
a "confounded design."
a "confounded design."
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Dakle, ovo nazivamo
„zbunjujućim dizajnom”.
„zbunjujućim dizajnom”.
05:25
Two things are happening at the same time.
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Dve stvari se dešavaju istovremeno.
05:27
It's branded versus generic,
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Brendirani lek naspram generičkog,
05:29
but it's doing nothing
versus doing something.
versus doing something.
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ali i nedelanje naspram delanja.
05:32
So I said, "Why don't we switch it?
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Upitao sam: „Zašto ga mi ne zamenimo?
05:34
Why don't we send people a letter
and say, 'We're switching you to generics.
and say, 'We're switching you to generics.
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Zašto ne pošaljemo pismo ljudima
i kažemo: 'Prebacujemo vas na generički.
i kažemo: 'Prebacujemo vas na generički.
05:38
You don't need to do anything.
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Ne morate ništa da uradite.
Ako želite da ostanete na brendiranom,
odgovorite na pismo.'"
odgovorite na pismo.'"
05:39
If you want to stay with branded,
please return the letter.'"
please return the letter.'"
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05:42
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
05:43
Right?
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Zar ne?
05:45
What do you think happened?
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Šta mislite, šta se desilo?
05:48
Lawyers, lawyers happened.
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Advokati, advokati su se desili.
05:50
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
05:56
It turns out, this is illegal.
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Ispostavilo se da je ovo nezakonito.
05:57
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
06:03
By the way, for brainstorming
and creativity,
and creativity,
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Usput, kod mozganja i kreativnosti,
06:06
doing things that are illegal
and immoral, it's fine,
and immoral, it's fine,
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nezakonito i nemoralno postupanje
su sasvim u redu,
su sasvim u redu,
06:08
as long as it's just
in the brainstorming phase.
in the brainstorming phase.
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dokle god ostanu u fazi mozganja.
06:12
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
06:13
But this was the purity of the idea,
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Međutim, u ovome je suština ideje:
06:15
because the initial design was
the branded had the no-action benefit.
the branded had the no-action benefit.
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zato što je u prvobitnom dizajnu
brendirani lek imao prednost nedelanja.
brendirani lek imao prednost nedelanja.
06:19
In my illegal, immoral design,
generic had the no-action benefit.
generic had the no-action benefit.
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U mom nezakonitom, nemoralnom dizajnu,
generički je imao prednost nedelanja.
generički je imao prednost nedelanja.
06:23
But they agreed to give people
a T-intersection:
a T-intersection:
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Međutim, pristali su da pruže ljudima
trokraku raskrsnicu,
trokraku raskrsnicu,
06:26
send people a letter and say,
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da im pošalju pismo s rečima:
06:28
"If you don't return this letter,
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„Ako ne odgovorite na ovo pismo,
06:30
we will be forced
to stop your medications.
to stop your medications.
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bićemo prinuđeni
da stopiramo isporuku leka.
da stopiramo isporuku leka.
06:33
But when you return the letter,
you could choose branded at this price,
you could choose branded at this price,
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No, kada odgovorite na pismo, možete
da birate između brendiranog po ovoj ceni,
da birate između brendiranog po ovoj ceni,
06:36
generic at this price."
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generičkog po ovoj ceni.”
06:38
Now people had to take an action.
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Sada su ljudi primorani na delanje.
06:40
They were on even footing. Right?
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Bili su u istoj ravni. Je li tako?
06:42
It wasn't that one had
the no-action benefit.
the no-action benefit.
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Nijedan lek nije imao prednost nedelanja.
06:44
What percentage do you think switched?
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Šta mislite, koliki procenat se prebacio?
06:48
The vast majority switched.
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Velika većina se prebacila.
Dakle, šta nam ovo govori?
06:50
So what does it tell us?
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06:51
Do people like generics,
or do we like branded?
or do we like branded?
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Da li ljudi vole generičke
ili volimo brendirane lekove?
ili volimo brendirane lekove?
06:54
We hate returning letters.
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Mrzimo da odgovaramo na pisma.
06:56
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
06:58
This is the story of friction:
small things really matter.
small things really matter.
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Ovo je priča o trenju:
zaista su važne male stvari.
zaista su važne male stvari.
07:02
And friction is about taking
the desired behavior
the desired behavior
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A kod trenja se radi
o uzimanju poželjnog ponašanja
o uzimanju poželjnog ponašanja
07:06
and saying: Where do we have
too much friction
too much friction
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i govorenju: gde imamo previše trenja
07:08
so it's slowing people down
from acting on it?
from acting on it?
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koje usporava ljude da ga prevaziđu?
07:11
And every time you see
that the desired behavior
that the desired behavior
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A svaki put kada vidite
da poželjno ponašanje
da poželjno ponašanje
07:13
and the easy behavior are not aligned,
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i jednostavno ponašanje nisu usklađeni,
07:15
it means we want to try and realign them.
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to znači da želimo da ih nanovo uskladimo.
07:18
That's the first part.
We talked about friction.
We talked about friction.
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To je prvi deo. Govorili smo o trenju.
07:20
Now let's talk about motivation.
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Sad razgovarajmo o motivaciji.
07:22
In this particular study,
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Baš smo u ovoj studiji
07:24
we were trying to get very poor people
in a slum called Kibera in Kenya
in a slum called Kibera in Kenya
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pokušali da navedemo veoma siromašne ljude
iz sirotinjskog kvarta Kibera u Keniji
iz sirotinjskog kvarta Kibera u Keniji
07:28
to save a little bit of money
for a rainy day.
for a rainy day.
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da sačuvaju nešto novca za crne dane.
07:31
You know, if you're very, very poor,
you have no extra money,
you have no extra money,
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Znate, ako ste veoma, veoma siromašni,
nemate dodatnog novca,
nemate dodatnog novca,
07:34
you live hand to mouth,
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živite od danas do sutra,
07:35
and from time to time, bad things happen.
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a povremeno se dešavaju loše stvari.
07:37
And when something bad happens,
you have nothing to draw on, you borrow.
you have nothing to draw on, you borrow.
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A kada se nešto loše desi,
nemate zalihe, morate da pozajmljujete.
nemate zalihe, morate da pozajmljujete.
07:42
The Kibera people can borrow at sometimes
up to 10 percent interest a week.
up to 10 percent interest a week.
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Ljudi iz Kibere ponekad mogu da se zaduže
i s kamatnim stopama od 10% nedeljno.
i s kamatnim stopama od 10% nedeljno.
07:48
And then, of course,
it's really hard to get out of it.
it's really hard to get out of it.
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A onda, naravno,
teško je izvući se iz toga.
teško je izvući se iz toga.
07:51
You live hand to mouth,
something bad happens,
something bad happens,
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Živite od danas do sutra,
nešto loše se desi,
nešto loše se desi,
07:53
you borrow, things get worse
and worse and worse.
and worse and worse.
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zadužite se, stvari postanu
samo gore i gore.
samo gore i gore.
07:56
So we wanted people to keep
a little bit of money for a rainy day.
a little bit of money for a rainy day.
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Pa smo želeli da ljudi uštede
malo novca za crne dane.
malo novca za crne dane.
08:00
And we thought about
what is the motivation,
what is the motivation,
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Pa smo razmišljali o motivaciji,
08:02
what is the fuel that we need to add?
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o pokretaču koji moramo da dodamo.
08:05
And we tried all kinds of things.
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Isprobali smo razne stvari.
08:07
Some people, we texted them
once a week and said,
once a week and said,
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Nekim ljudima smo jednom nedeljno
slali poruke s rečima:
slali poruke s rečima:
08:09
"Please try to save 100 shillings" --
about a dollar -- "this week."
about a dollar -- "this week."
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„Molimo vas, pokušajte da uštedite
sto šilinga” - oko dolara - „ove nedelje.”
sto šilinga” - oko dolara - „ove nedelje.”
08:14
Some people, we sent a text message
as if it came from their kids.
as if it came from their kids.
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Nekim ljudima smo slali poruku
kao da stiže od njihove dece.
kao da stiže od njihove dece.
08:19
So it said, "Hi Mom, hi Dad,
this is little Joey" --
this is little Joey" --
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Glasila je: „Zdravo, mama i tata,
piše vam mali Džoi” -
piše vam mali Džoi” -
08:22
whatever the name of the kid was --
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ili kako se već zvalo dete -
08:24
"Try and save 100 shillings this week
for the future of our family."
for the future of our family."
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„Pokušajte da uštedite sto šilinga
ove nedelje za budućnost naše porodice.”
ove nedelje za budućnost naše porodice.”
08:28
Right? I'm Jewish, a little bit
of guilt always works.
of guilt always works.
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Je li tako? Ja sam Jevrej,
malo krivice uvek deluje.
malo krivice uvek deluje.
08:32
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
08:33
Some people got 10 percent.
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Neki ljudi su dobili 10 procenata.
08:35
"Save up to a hundred shillings,
we'll give you 10 percent."
we'll give you 10 percent."
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2849
„Uštedite do sto šilinga,
daćemo vam 10 procenata.”
daćemo vam 10 procenata.”
08:38
Some people got 20 percent.
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1685
Neki ljudi su dobili 20 procenata.
08:40
Some people got also
10 percent and 20 percent,
10 percent and 20 percent,
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2654
Neki ljudi su dobili i 10 i 20 procenata,
08:42
but they got it with loss aversion.
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2273
ali uz averziju prema gubitku.
Šta je averzija prema gubitku?
08:45
What is loss aversion?
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1331
08:46
Loss aversion is the idea
that we hate losing
that we hate losing
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Averzija prema gubitku
je zamisao da mrzimo da gubimo
je zamisao da mrzimo da gubimo
08:48
more than we enjoy gaining.
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1736
više nego što uživamo da dobijamo.
08:50
Now, think about somebody
who is in a 10-percent condition
who is in a 10-percent condition
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2727
Sad zamislite nekoga
u slučaju deset procenata
u slučaju deset procenata
08:53
and they put 40 shillings in.
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1921
i on uštedi 40 šilinga.
08:55
They put 40 shillings,
we give them four more,
we give them four more,
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Odvoji 40 šilinga,
mi mu damo dodatna četiri.
mi mu damo dodatna četiri.
08:57
they say thank you very much.
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On kaže hvala lepo.
08:59
That person gave up six.
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Ta osoba je izgubila šest.
09:00
They could have gotten six more
if they gave a hundred,
if they gave a hundred,
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Mogli su da dobiju još šest,
da su dali stotinu,
da su dali stotinu,
09:03
but they don't see it.
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1584
ali oni to ne uviđaju.
Pa smo osmislili nešto
što nazivamo početnim bonusom.
što nazivamo početnim bonusom.
09:05
So we created what we call pre-match.
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2427
09:07
We put the 10 shillings in
at the beginning of the week.
at the beginning of the week.
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Odvojili smo deset šilinga
na početku nedelje.
na početku nedelje.
Rekli smo, „Čekaju na vas!”
09:10
We said, "It's waiting for you!"
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U tom slučaju, ako neko odvoji 40,
kažemo: „Uplatili ste 40,
kažemo: „Uplatili ste 40,
09:11
And then if somebody puts 40 in,
we say, "Oh, you put 40 in,
we say, "Oh, you put 40 in,
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2966
ostavljamo četiri, a uzimamo šest.”
09:14
we're leaving four,
and we're taking six back."
and we're taking six back."
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2591
09:17
So in both cases, pre-match or post-match,
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3003
Dakle, u oba slučaja,
kod početnog ili krajnjeg bonusa,
kod početnog ili krajnjeg bonusa,
09:20
people get 10 percent.
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ljudi bi dobili 10 procenata.
09:22
But in the pre-match,
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1444
Međutim, kod početnog bonusa,
09:23
they see the money they did not match
leaving their account.
leaving their account.
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551648
3093
videli su mogući bonus
kako napušta njihov nalog.
kako napušta njihov nalog.
09:27
So we have text, text from kids,
10 percent, 20 percent,
10 percent, 20 percent,
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2922
Imali smo poruke, poruke od dece,
10 procenata, 20 procenata,
10 procenata, 20 procenata,
09:30
pre-match, post-match.
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1587
početni bonus, krajnji bonus.
09:32
And we had one more condition.
213
560407
1967
I imali smo još jednu mogućnost.
09:34
It was a coin about this size,
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2370
Radilo se o novčiću ove veličine,
09:36
with 24 numbers written on it.
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sa 24 broja ispisana na njemu.
09:39
And we asked them to put the coin
somewhere in their hut,
somewhere in their hut,
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I zatražili smo im da smeste novčić
negde u svoju baraku
negde u svoju baraku
09:42
and every week, take a knife
and scratch the number for that week --
and scratch the number for that week --
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3301
i da svake nedelje uzmu nož
i ogrebu broj za tu nedelju -
i ogrebu broj za tu nedelju -
09:46
week one, two, three, four --
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2104
prva nedelja, druga, treća, četvrta -
09:48
scratch it like a minus
if they didn't save
if they didn't save
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2499
da grebu u vidu minusa ako ne uštede,
09:50
and scratch it up and down if they saved.
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a da grebu u smeru gore-dole, ako uštede.
09:53
Now, think to yourself:
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Sad, razmislite sami:
09:55
Which one of those methods
do you think worked the best?
do you think worked the best?
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3320
koji metod je najbolje delovao?
09:58
Text, text from the kids,
10 percent, 20 percent,
10 percent, 20 percent,
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2371
Poruka, poruka od dece,
10 procenata, 20 procenata,
10 procenata, 20 procenata,
10:00
beginning of the week,
end of the week, and the coin?
end of the week, and the coin?
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2560
početak nedelje, kraj nedelje i novčić?
Reći ću vam šta prosečni ljudi misle.
10:03
I'll tell you what
the average people think.
the average people think.
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2105
10:05
We've done these studies of prediction,
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593528
1987
Radili smo studije nagađanja
10:07
both in the US and in Kenya.
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595539
2094
i u SAD-u i u Keniji.
10:09
People think that 20 percent
will get a lot of action,
will get a lot of action,
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2944
Ljudi su smatrali da će 20 procenata
da izazove veliku pažnju,
da izazove veliku pažnju,
10:12
10 percent less,
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1242
10 procenata manju,
10:13
the rest of it will do nothing --
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1836
a ostatak neće postići ništa -
10:15
kids, coin, doesn't matter.
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2725
deca i novčić nisu važni.
10:19
People think loss aversion
will have a small effect.
will have a small effect.
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607048
2640
Ljudi smatraju da će averzija
prema gubitku da ima mali uticaj.
prema gubitku da ima mali uticaj.
10:22
What actually happened?
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1260
Šta se zapravo desilo?
10:24
Sending a text reminder once a week
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2172
Nedeljni podsetnik u vidu poruke
10:27
helps a lot.
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1209
pomaže mnogo.
10:28
Good news!
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1158
Dobre vesti!
Program je trajao šest meseci. Ljudi
zaborave. Podsećanje ljudi je sjajno.
zaborave. Podsećanje ljudi je sjajno.
10:30
This program lasted six months.
People forget. Reminding people is great.
People forget. Reminding people is great.
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3599
10:34
Ten percent at the end
of the week helped some more.
of the week helped some more.
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2945
Deset procenata na kraju nedelje
je pomoglo još više.
je pomoglo još više.
10:37
Financial incentives work.
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1398
Finansijski podsticaji deluju.
10:39
Twenty percent at the end of the week --
just like 10 percent, no difference.
just like 10 percent, no difference.
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627033
4000
Dvadeset procenata na kraju nedelje -
isto kao 10 procenata, nema razlike.
isto kao 10 procenata, nema razlike.
10:43
Ten percent in the beginning of the week
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631625
1957
Deset procenata na početku nedelje
10:45
helps some more.
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633606
1157
još više pomaže.
Averzija prema gubitku deluje.
10:46
Loss aversion works.
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634787
1198
10:48
Twenty percent in
the beginning of the week,
the beginning of the week,
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2071
Dvadeset procenata na početku nedelje,
10:50
just like 10 percent in the beginning
of the week, no difference.
of the week, no difference.
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3075
baš kao 10 procenata
na početku nedelje, nema razlike.
na početku nedelje, nema razlike.
10:53
And the text message from the kids
was just as effective
was just as effective
246
641203
2978
A poruka od dece
je bila jednako učinkovita
je bila jednako učinkovita
10:56
as 20 percent plus loss aversion --
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3214
kao 20 procenata
plus averzija prema gubitku -
plus averzija prema gubitku -
10:59
which is amazing, right?
248
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1658
a to je neverovatno, zar ne?
11:01
It's amazing how motivating
messages from kids were.
messages from kids were.
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3328
Neverovatno koliko su podsticajne
bile poruke od dece.
bile poruke od dece.
11:04
And one conclusion is
we don't use kids enough.
we don't use kids enough.
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A jedan od zaključaka glasi
da ne koristimo dovoljno decu.
da ne koristimo dovoljno decu.
11:07
(Laughter)
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2048
(Smeh)
11:09
And, of course, I don't mean
in a child labor sense.
in a child labor sense.
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5468
I, naravno, ne mislim
u smislu dečjeg rada.
u smislu dečjeg rada.
11:16
But if you think about
parents and their kids,
parents and their kids,
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2374
Međutim, ako mislite na roditelje i decu,
11:18
we are the best that we can for our kids,
254
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2619
najbolji smo prema našoj deci,
11:21
and we think about the future,
255
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1491
razmišljamo o budućnosti,
i mislim da bi trebalo da mislimo
11:22
and I think we should think
256
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1480
11:24
about how to use that amazing
source of motivation
source of motivation
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3111
o tome kako da koristimo
taj izvanredni izvor motivacije
taj izvanredni izvor motivacije
11:27
to get parents to behave in a better way.
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675260
2551
da navedemo roditelje
da se ponašaju bolje.
da se ponašaju bolje.
11:30
But the big surprise
of this study was the coin.
of this study was the coin.
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678847
2827
Međutim, veliko iznenađenje
u ovoj studiji je bio novčić.
u ovoj studiji je bio novčić.
11:33
The coin basically doubled savings
compared to everything else.
compared to everything else.
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3250
Novčić je u suštini udvostručio uštede
u poređenju sa svim ostalim.
u poređenju sa svim ostalim.
11:37
And now the question is: Why?
What was it about the coin?
What was it about the coin?
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2682
Što povlači pitanje: zašto?
Šta je to u vezi s novčićem?
Šta je to u vezi s novčićem?
11:41
So I'll tell you how I started
thinking about the coin,
thinking about the coin,
262
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2656
Reći ću vam kako sam počeo
da razmišljam o novčiću,
da razmišljam o novčiću,
pa ćemo se vratiti na njega.
11:43
and then we'll come back to it.
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1504
11:45
So you know, when I do research
on, let's say, buying coffee,
on, let's say, buying coffee,
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2976
Znate, kada radim istraživanje
o, recimo, kupovini kafe,
o, recimo, kupovini kafe,
11:48
I don't need to go anywhere.
I can sit in my office.
I can sit in my office.
265
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2452
ne moram nigde da idem.
Mogu da sedim u kancelariji.
Mogu da sedim u kancelariji.
11:50
I've bought enough coffee.
I know how it works.
I know how it works.
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2213
Dovoljno puta sam kupio kafu.
Znam postupak.
Znam postupak.
11:52
The details, I'm familiar with.
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700967
1936
Pojedinosti su mi poznate.
11:54
When you do research in some
of the poorest places in the world,
of the poorest places in the world,
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Kada radite istraživanje
u nekim od najsiromašnijih delova sveta,
u nekim od najsiromašnijih delova sveta,
11:58
you have to go and visit
and see what's going on
and see what's going on
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morate da pođete u posetu
i vidite šta se dešava
i vidite šta se dešava
12:00
and get some insight
about how the system works.
about how the system works.
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kako biste imali nekakav uvid
o tome kako sistem funkcioniše.
o tome kako sistem funkcioniše.
12:03
And on that particular day,
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A baš tog dana,
12:04
I'm in a place called Soweto
in South Africa,
in South Africa,
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bio sam u mestu Soveto u Južnoj Africi
12:07
and I'm sitting in a place
that sells funeral insurance.
that sells funeral insurance.
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i sedeo sam na mestu
gde se prodaju osiguranja za sahrane.
gde se prodaju osiguranja za sahrane.
12:11
You know, in the US people spend
crazy amounts of money on weddings?
crazy amounts of money on weddings?
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Znate kako u SAD-u ljudi troše
sulude sume novca na venčanja?
sulude sume novca na venčanja?
12:15
In South Africa, it's funerals.
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U Južnoj Africi troše na sahrane.
12:18
People spend up to a year
or two years of income on funerals.
or two years of income on funerals.
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Ljudi troše godišnji ili dvogodišnji
prihod na sahrane.
prihod na sahrane.
12:23
And I sit in this place --
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I sedim na ovom mestu -
12:26
by the way, before you judge the South
Africans as being irrational with this,
Africans as being irrational with this,
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usput, pre nego što osudite Južnoafrikance
kao iracionalne zbog ovoga,
kao iracionalne zbog ovoga,
samo želim da vas podsetim
12:31
I just want to remind you
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12:32
that spending a lot of money
on funerals compared to weddings,
on funerals compared to weddings,
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da trošenjem velikih suma novca
na sahrane u poređenju sa svadbama,
na sahrane u poređenju sa svadbama,
12:36
at least you know for sure
you only have one.
you only have one.
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bar ste sigurni
da ćete da imate samo jednu.
da ćete da imate samo jednu.
12:38
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
12:48
OK, so I sit in this place
that sells funeral insurance.
that sells funeral insurance.
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U redu, sedim na tom mestu
koje prodaje pogrebna osiguranja.
koje prodaje pogrebna osiguranja.
12:53
And this guy comes in with his son --
his son is about 12 --
his son is about 12 --
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Dolazi jedan čovek sa sinom -
sin mu ima oko 12 godina -
sin mu ima oko 12 godina -
12:57
and he buys funeral insurance for a week.
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i kupuje pogrebno osiguranje
na nedelju dana.
na nedelju dana.
13:00
It will cover 90 percent
of his funeral expense
of his funeral expense
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Pokriće 90 procenata
troškova njegove sahrane,
troškova njegove sahrane,
13:03
only if he dies in the next seven days.
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samo ako umre u narednih sedam dana.
13:06
Right? These are very poor people,
they buy small amounts of insurance
they buy small amounts of insurance
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Je l' da? Ovo su veoma siromašni ljudi,
kupuju osiguranje na malo,
kupuju osiguranje na malo,
13:09
and small amount of soap and such.
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male količine sapuna i slično.
13:11
And he gets that certificate,
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1803
I on prima sertifikat
13:13
and in a very ceremonious way,
he gives it to his son.
he gives it to his son.
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i na veoma svečan način
uručuje ga njegovom sinu.
uručuje ga njegovom sinu.
13:16
And as he gives it to his son,
I think to myself, why the ceremony?
I think to myself, why the ceremony?
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I dok ga pruža sinu,
razmišljam u sebi: čemu svečanost?
razmišljam u sebi: čemu svečanost?
Šta radi ovaj otac?
13:19
What is this father doing?
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13:21
Now, think about the breadwinner
that decides on that particular day
that decides on that particular day
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Razmislite o jedinom zaposlenom
članu porodice koji odluči da baš taj dan
članu porodice koji odluči da baš taj dan
13:25
to direct some money
into insurance or savings.
into insurance or savings.
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preusmeri nešto novca
na osiguranje ili štednju.
na osiguranje ili štednju.
13:28
What is the family going to see tonight?
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2341
Šta će porodica da vidi večeras?
13:31
They're going to see less.
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Videće manje.
13:33
Right? At that level of poverty, there'll
be less food, less kerosene, less water --
be less food, less kerosene, less water --
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Tačno? Na tom stadijumu siromaštva biće
manje hrane, manje goriva, manje vode -
manje hrane, manje goriva, manje vode -
biće nečeg manje večeras.
13:37
something less tonight.
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1855
13:39
And what his father was doing
and what our coin was trying to do
and what our coin was trying to do
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A ono što je njegov otac radio
i što je naš novčić pokušao da uradi
i što je naš novčić pokušao da uradi
13:42
is to say, yes, there's less
food on the table,
food on the table,
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je da kaže, da, biće manje hrane na stolu,
13:45
but there's another activity.
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ali postoji i druga aktivnost.
13:47
You see, what happened is, there are
many good, important economic activities,
many good, important economic activities,
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Vidite, dešava se to da postoje
mnoge dobre, važne ekonomske aktivnosti,
mnoge dobre, važne ekonomske aktivnosti,
13:51
like savings and insurance,
that are invisible.
that are invisible.
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poput štednje i osiguranja
koje su nevidljive.
koje su nevidljive.
13:54
And now the question is:
How do we make them visible?
How do we make them visible?
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Pitanje sada glasi:
kako da ih učinimo vidljivim?
kako da ih učinimo vidljivim?
13:58
So let's go back to our rocket model.
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Vratimo se na model rakete.
14:02
We have to, first of all,
look at the system
look at the system
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Moramo pre svega da posmatramo sistem
14:04
and see where there's little things
we can fix, with friction,
we can fix, with friction,
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i uočimo gde su sitnice koje možemo
da popravimo, u vezi sa trenjem,
da popravimo, u vezi sa trenjem,
14:08
where is there
that we can remove friction?
that we can remove friction?
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ako je prisutno, kako da ga uklonimo?
14:10
And then the next thing we want to do
is to think broadly about the system,
is to think broadly about the system,
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A potom, sledeća stvar koju možemo
da uradimo je da mislimo šire o sistemu
da uradimo je da mislimo šire o sistemu
14:14
and say: What other motivations
can we bring in?
can we bring in?
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i da kažemo: koje još motivacije
možemo da uvedemo?
možemo da uvedemo?
14:18
And that's a much more difficult exercise,
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2022
A to je daleko teža vežba
14:20
and we don't always know
what would work best.
what would work best.
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2522
jer ne znamo uvek
šta je najfunkcionalnije.
šta je najfunkcionalnije.
14:22
Is it going to be money?
Is it going to be loss aversion?
Is it going to be loss aversion?
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Da li je to novac?
Da li je to averzija prema gubitku?
Da li je to averzija prema gubitku?
14:25
Is it going to be
something that is visible?
something that is visible?
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Da li je to nešto što je vidljivo?
Ne znamo i moramo da isprobamo
različite stvari.
različite stvari.
14:27
We don't know, and we have
to try different things.
to try different things.
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14:30
We also have to realize that
our intuition sometimes misleads us.
our intuition sometimes misleads us.
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Moramo i da uvidimo
da nas intuicija ponekad obmanjuje.
da nas intuicija ponekad obmanjuje.
14:33
We don't always necessarily know
what would work the best.
what would work the best.
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Ne znamo nužno uvek
šta bi najbolje funkcionisalo.
šta bi najbolje funkcionisalo.
14:37
So if we think about this gap
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1878
Zato, ako razmislimo o ovom jazu
između toga gde bismo mogli
da budemo i gde jesmo,
da budemo i gde jesmo,
14:39
between where we could be
and where we are,
and where we are,
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14:41
it's a really sad thing to see this gap
and to think about it.
and to think about it.
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zaista je tužno videti ovaj jaz
i razmišljati o njemu.
i razmišljati o njemu.
14:44
But the good news is,
there's lots we can do.
there's lots we can do.
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No, dobre vesti su da mnogo toga
možemo da uradimo.
možemo da uradimo.
14:47
Some of the changes are easy,
some of the changes are more complex.
some of the changes are more complex.
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Neke promene su lake, neke su složenije.
Međutim, ako se direktno
suočimo sa svakim problemom,
suočimo sa svakim problemom,
14:51
But if we'll attack each problem directly,
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2657
14:53
not by just providing
more information to people
more information to people
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ne samo pukim pružanjem
više informacija ljudima,
više informacija ljudima,
već pokušavanjem da se izmeni trenje,
14:57
but trying to change the friction,
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1739
14:59
add motivation,
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1270
doda motivacija,
15:00
I think we can ...
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mislim da možemo...
15:01
Can we close the gap? No.
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1856
Možemo li da zatvorimo jaz? Ne.
15:03
But can we get much better?
Absolutely, yes.
Absolutely, yes.
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Međutim, možemo li da budemo
mnogo bolji? Apsolutno, da.
mnogo bolji? Apsolutno, da.
15:06
Thank you very much.
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Mnogo vam hvala.
15:07
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Dan Ariely - Behavioral economistThe dismal science of economics is not as firmly grounded in actual behavior as was once supposed. In "Predictably Irrational," Dan Ariely told us why.
Why you should listen
Dan Ariely is a professor of psychology and behavioral economics at Duke University and a founding member of the Center for Advanced Hindsight. He is the author of the bestsellers Predictably Irrational, The Upside of Irrationality, and The Honest Truth About Dishonesty -- as well as the TED Book Payoff: The Hidden Logic that Shapes Our Motivations.
Through his research and his (often amusing and unorthodox) experiments, he questions the forces that influence human behavior and the irrational ways in which we often all behave.
Dan Ariely | Speaker | TED.com