TEDGlobal 2013
Eric X. Li: A tale of two political systems
李世默：两种制度的传说
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在西方社会，有一种标准的假设：当一个社会不断进步，它最终会成为一个资本主义，一个多党制的民主社会，对吗？李世默，一名中国投资人以及社会科学家，呼吁我们重新审视这个假设。在这个挑战界限的演讲里，他吁请听众们考虑其他能够成功管理一个现代国家的可能方式。
Eric X. Li - Investor and political scientist
A venture capitalist and political scientist, Eric X Li argues that the universality claim of Western democratic systems is going to be "morally challenged" by China. Full bio
A venture capitalist and political scientist, Eric X Li argues that the universality claim of Western democratic systems is going to be "morally challenged" by China. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Good morning.
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早上好.
00:14
My name is Eric Li, and I was born here.
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我是李世默，我出生在这里。
00:19
But no, I wasn't born there.
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不，其实不是。
00:21
This was where I was born:
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这才是我出生时的上海。
00:24
Shanghai, at the height of the Cultural Revolution.
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当时，上海正处在“文化大革命”的高潮。
00:28
My grandmother tells me that she heard
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外婆后来告诉我，她当时抱着襁褓之中啼哭不止的我，
00:29
the sound of gunfire along with my first cries.
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心惊胆战地听着“武斗”的枪声。
00:33
When I was growing up, I was told a story
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在我少年时，我被灌输了一个
00:36
that explained all I ever needed to know about humanity.
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关于人类社会发展规律的大故事，
00:40
It went like this.
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这个故事是这样的
00:41
All human societies develop in linear progression,
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所有的人类社会都遵循一个线性的发展规律，
00:45
beginning with primitive society, then slave society,
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即从原始社会开始，经由奴隶社会、
00:48
feudalism, capitalism, socialism,
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封建社会、资本主义社会、社会主义社会，
00:51
and finally, guess where we end up?
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最终过渡到, 猜猜这个终点？
00:54
Communism!
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共产主义社会!
00:57
Sooner or later, all of humanity,
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或早或晚, 所有的人类社会，
01:01
regardless of culture, language, nationality,
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不管文化、语言、民族有何异同，
01:03
will arrive at this final stage
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都将演进到这一
01:06
of political and social development.
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人类政治、社会发展的最高阶段
01:08
The entire world's peoples will be unified
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人类社会自此大同
01:10
in this paradise on Earth
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在这人间天堂
01:13
and live happily ever after.
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永远过着幸福的生活.
01:15
But before we get there, we're engaged
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但在实现这个目标之前，我们必须投身于
01:18
in a struggle between good and evil,
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正义与邪恶的斗争,
01:20
the good of socialism against the evil of capitalism,
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即正义的社会主义与邪恶的资本主义之间的斗争,
01:23
and the good shall triumph.
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正义终将胜利.
01:25
That, of course, was the meta-narrative
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当然，这就是
01:28
distilled from the theories of Karl Marx.
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从马克思主义理论提制出来的元叙事
01:31
And the Chinese bought it.
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这一元叙事在中国影响甚广.
01:33
We were taught that grand story day in and day out.
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我们从小就被反复灌输了这个宏大故事.
01:36
It became part of us, and we believed in it.
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几乎融化到了血液之中，深信不笃。
01:39
The story was a bestseller.
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这个元叙事到处畅销。
01:41
About one third of the entire world's population
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世界上曾经有整整三分之一的人
01:43
lived under that meta-narrative.
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在它的笼罩之下生活.
01:46
Then, the world changed overnight.
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然而，恍然一夜之间，世界沧桑巨变.
01:49
As for me, disillusioned by the failed religion of my youth,
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少年时期的信仰收挫折后，
01:52
I went to America and became a Berkeley hippie.
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我离国赴美，改宗成为伯克利的嬉皮士.
01:55
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
01:59
Now, as I was coming of age, something else happened.
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就在我成年过程中，又发生了一件事.
02:02
As if one big story wasn't enough,
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仿佛我这辈子只经历那一个还不够似的。
02:04
I was told another one.
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我又被灌输了另一个宏大叙事.
02:07
This one was just as grand.
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这个元叙事的完美与早前的那一个不分伯仲.
02:10
It also claims that all human societies
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它同样宣称，人类社会
02:12
develop in a linear progression towards a singular end.
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遵循着一个线性的发展规律，指向一个终极目标.
02:16
This one went as follows:
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故事是这样展开的：
02:19
All societies, regardless of culture,
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所有的人类社会，不论其文化有何异同，
02:21
be it Christian, Muslim, Confucian,
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其民众是基督徒、穆斯林还是儒家信徒,
02:24
must progress from traditional societies
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都将从传统社会过渡
02:26
in which groups are the basic units
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到现代社会.
02:29
to modern societies in which atomized individuals
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在传统社会中，最基本的社会单位是群体；
02:33
are the sovereign units,
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而在现代社会中，最基本的、神圣不可侵犯的社会单位是原子化的个人。
02:34
and all these individuals are, by definition, rational,
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所有的个人都被认定为是理性的，
02:38
and they all want one thing:
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都有同一个诉求：
02:40
the vote.
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选举权.
02:42
Because they are all rational, once given the vote,
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因为每一个个人都是理性的，一旦有了权选举，
02:45
they produce good government
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必然会选出好政府
02:46
and live happily ever after.
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随后过上永远幸福的生活
02:49
Paradise on Earth, again.
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又是一个人间天堂.
02:52
Sooner or later, electoral democracy will be
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选举民主制早晚将成为
02:55
the only political system for all countries and all peoples,
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所有国家和民族唯一的政治制度，
02:59
with a free market to make them all rich.
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再加上一个自由放任的市场让他们发财.
03:01
But before we get there, we're engaged in a struggle
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但在实现这个目标之前，我们必须投身于
03:05
between good and evil.
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正义与邪恶的斗争.
03:06
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
03:08
The good belongs to those who are democracies
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民主国家代表正义，
03:10
and are charged with a mission of spreading it
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并肩负着
03:12
around the globe, sometimes by force,
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在全世界推动民主的使命, 有时甚至可以动用武力，
03:16
against the evil of those who do not hold elections.
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来打击那些不实行选举的邪恶势力.
03:19
(Video) George H.W. Bush: A new world order ...
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乔治H.W.布什: 一个世界新次序…
03:21
(Video) George W. Bush: ... ending tyranny in our world ...
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乔治 W. 布什: ... 消灭世界上所有暴政...
03:23
(Video) Barack Obama: ... a single standard for all
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奥巴马: ... 只有一个标准
03:25
who would hold power.
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衡量统治者.
03:28
Eric X. Li: Now --
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李世默: 现在...
03:30
(Laughter) (Applause)
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(笑声) (掌声)
03:38
This story also became a bestseller.
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上述宏大叙事同样到处畅销.
03:42
According to Freedom House,
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根据“自由之家”的统计，
03:44
the number of democracies went from 45 in 1970
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全世界采用选举民主制的国家，从1970年的45个
03:47
to 115 in 2010.
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已增至2010年的115个.
03:49
In the last 20 years, Western elites tirelessly
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近20多年来，西方的精英人士孜孜不倦地
03:52
trotted around the globe selling this prospectus:
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在全世界奔走，推荐选举民主这一救世良方:
03:56
Multiple parties fight for political power
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他们声称，实行多党制
03:58
and everyone voting on them
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和全民选举
04:00
is the only path to salvation
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是拯救
04:02
to the long-suffering developing world.
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发展中国家于水火的唯一良药，
04:05
Those who buy the prospectus are destined for success.
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只要吃下它，就一定会实现繁荣.
04:08
Those who do not are doomed to fail.
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否则，永无翻身之日.
04:11
But this time, the Chinese didn't buy it.
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但这一次，中国敬谢不敏。
04:14
Fool me once ...
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被骗一次....
04:17
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
04:21
The rest is history.
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历史是最好的裁判.
04:23
In just 30 years, China went from
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仅仅30多年间，中国就从
04:25
one of the poorest agricultural countries in the world
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世界上最贫困的农业国
04:27
to its second-largest economy.
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一跃而为世界第二大经济体.
04:30
Six hundred fifty million people
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实现6.5亿人
04:32
were lifted out of poverty.
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脱贫。
04:33
Eighty percent of the entire world's poverty alleviation
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这期间全世界80%的减贫成就
04:36
during that period happened in China.
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是由中国完成的。
04:38
In other words, all the new and old democracies
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也就是说，所有老的、新的民主国家
04:41
put together amounted to a mere fraction
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的脱贫人口加起来，都不及
04:44
of what a single, one-party state did without voting.
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中国一个零头, 而中国没有所谓的选举，也没有多党制.
04:49
See, I grew up on this stuff: food stamps.
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看, 这是我小时候生活的必需品: 粮票.
04:53
Meat was rationed to a few hundred grams
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上海一时每人每月的肉类定额
04:55
per person per month at one point.
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是300克.
04:57
Needless to say, I ate all my grandmother's portions.
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不用说，我把外婆的份额全给吃了
05:01
So I asked myself, what's wrong with this picture?
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所以，我禁不住问自己，我眼前画面到底哪里不对劲儿？
05:05
Here I am in my hometown,
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我在一切今非昔比的故乡上海，
05:07
my business growing leaps and bounds.
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我自己的事业蒸蒸日上.
05:09
Entrepreneurs are starting companies every day.
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新生企业如雨后春笋般发展起来.
05:11
Middle class is expanding in speed and scale
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中产阶级以史无前例的
05:14
unprecedented in human history.
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速度和规模在增长
05:16
Yet, according to the grand story,
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但根据那个宏大叙事，
05:19
none of this should be happening.
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这一切景象本都不可能出现.
05:22
So I went and did the only thing I could. I studied it.
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面对这一切，我开始做我唯一可以做的事，即研究它.
05:25
Yes, China is a one-party state
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中国的确是个一党制的国家
05:27
run by the Chinese Communist Party, the Party,
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由中国共产党长期执政，
05:31
and they don't hold elections.
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不实行西方意义上的选举.
05:33
Three assumptions are made
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按照当代主流的政治理论
05:35
by the dominant political theories of our time.
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人们据此可以生成三个判断，
05:38
Such a system is operationally rigid,
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即这个制度一定是体制上僵化的、
05:41
politically closed, and morally illegitimate.
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政治上封闭的、道德上不具合法性的
05:45
Well, the assumptions are wrong.
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但这些论断是错误的。
05:48
The opposites are true.
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事实恰恰相反.
05:50
Adaptability, meritocracy, and legitimacy
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中国的一党制具有与时俱进的能力、选贤任能的体制、深植于民心的政权合法性，
05:53
are the three defining characteristics
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这些是确保其成功的
05:55
of China's one-party system.
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三个核心要素。
05:58
Now, most political scientists will tell us
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大多数政治学家断言
05:59
that a one-party system is inherently incapable
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一党制天生缺乏
06:03
of self-correction.
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自我纠错能力.
06:05
It won't last long because it cannot adapt.
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因此很难持久。
06:07
Now here are the facts.
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而事实却是.
06:09
In 64 years of running the largest country in the world,
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中共已经在中国这个世界上最大的国家之一连续执政64年，
06:12
the range of the Party's policies has been wider
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其政策调整的幅度
06:15
than any other country in recent memory,
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超过近代以来任何国家。
06:18
from radical land collectivization to the Great Leap Forward,
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从激进的土改到“大跃进”运动，
06:22
then privatization of farmland,
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再到土地“准私有化”,
06:25
then the Cultural Revolution,
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从“文化大革命”,
06:27
then Deng Xiaoping's market reform,
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到邓小平的市场化改革。
06:30
then successor Jiang Zemin took the giant political step
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邓小平的继任者江泽民更进一步
06:33
of opening up Party membership to private businesspeople,
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主动吸纳包括民营企业家在内的新社会阶层人士入党，
06:36
something unimaginable during Mao's rule.
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而这在毛的时代是不可想象的。
06:39
So the Party self-corrects in rather dramatic fashions.
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事实证明，中共具有超凡的与时俱进和自我纠错能力。
06:43
Institutionally, new rules get enacted
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过去实行的一些不再有效的制度
06:46
to correct previous dysfunctions.
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也不断得到纠正和更新.
06:48
For example, term limits.
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比如，政治领导人的任期制.
06:50
Political leaders used to retain their positions for life,
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以前，政治领导人实际上是终身任职的.
06:53
and they used that to accumulate power
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这容易导致大权独揽、
06:54
and perpetuate their rules.
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不受制约等问题.
06:56
Mao was the father of modern China,
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毛泽东作为现代中国的缔造者，
06:59
yet his prolonged rule led to disastrous mistakes.
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在位晚年也未能避免犯下类似的严重错误
07:01
So the Party instituted term limits
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随后，中共逐步实施了领导人的任期制
07:04
with mandatory retirement age of 68 to 70.
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并将任职的年龄上限确定为68到70岁。
07:07
One thing we often hear is,
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最近很多人声称
07:10
"Political reforms have lagged far behind economic reforms,"
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相比于经济改革，中国的政治改革严重滞后
07:13
and "China is in dire need of political reform."
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因此当前亟需在政改中取得突破.
07:16
But this claim is a rhetorical trap
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这一论断实际上是隐藏着
07:19
hidden behind a political bias.
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政治偏见的话语陷阱.
07:22
See, some have decided a priori
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这个话语陷进预设了
07:24
what kinds of changes they want to see,
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哪些变革才算所谓的政治改革，
07:26
and only such changes can be called political reform.
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只有实行这些特定的变革才算是政治改革.
07:30
The truth is, political reforms have never stopped.
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事实上，中国的政治改革从未停滞.
07:33
Compared with 30 years ago, 20 years, even 10 years ago,
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与三十年、二十年，甚至十年前相比，
07:36
every aspect of Chinese society,
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中国从基层到高层，
07:38
how the country is governed,
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从社会各领域
07:39
from the most local level to the highest center,
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到国家治理方式上，
07:41
are unrecognizable today.
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都发生了翻天覆地的变化.
07:44
Now such changes are simply not possible
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如果没有最根本性的政治改革
07:47
without political reforms of the most fundamental kind.
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这一切变化都是不可能的.
07:51
Now I would venture to suggest the Party
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我甚至想大胆地判断说
07:53
is the world's leading expert in political reform.
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中共是全世界第一流的政治改革专家.
07:57
The second assumption is that in a one-party state,
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第二个西方主流的观点认为，一党制意味着
08:00
power gets concentrated in the hands of the few,
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政治上封闭，一小撮人把持了权力，
08:03
and bad governance and corruption follow.
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必然导致劣政和腐败.
08:05
Indeed, corruption is a big problem,
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的确，腐败是一个大问题.
08:08
but let's first look at the larger context.
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不过，让我们先打开视野看一下全景.
08:10
Now, this may be counterintuitive to you.
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说起来可能令人难以置信.
08:12
The Party happens to be one of the most meritocratic
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中共内部选贤任能竞争之激烈程度
08:15
political institutions in the world today.
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可能超过世界上所有的政治组织.
08:18
China's highest ruling body, the Politburo, has 25 members.
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十八大前，中共的最高领导机构——中央政治局共有25名委员.
08:22
In the most recent one, only five of them
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其中只有5人
08:24
came from a background of privilege, so-called princelings.
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出身背景优越，也就是所谓的“太子党”.
08:27
The other 20, including the president and the premier,
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其余20人，包括国家主席和政府总理，
08:30
came from entirely ordinary backgrounds.
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都是平民出身.
08:33
In the larger central committee of 300 or more,
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再看300多人组成的十七届中央委员会，
08:35
the percentage of those who were born
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出身显赫者的
08:37
into power and wealth was even smaller.
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比例更低.
08:39
The vast majority of senior Chinese leaders
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可以说，绝大多数中共高层领导人
08:42
worked and competed their way to the top.
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都是靠自身努力和激烈竞争获得晋升的.
08:45
Compare that with the ruling elites
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与其他发达国家和发展中国家
08:47
in both developed and developing countries,
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统治精英的出身相比，
08:49
I think you'll find the Party being near the top
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我们必须承认中共内部平民出身的干部
08:52
in upward mobility.
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享有广阔的晋升空间.
08:54
The question then is, how could that be possible
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问题是, 中共如何
08:57
in a system run by one party?
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在一党制的基础上保证选贤任能呢？
09:00
Now we come to a powerful political institution,
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关键之一是有一个强有力的组织机构，
09:03
little-known to Westerners:
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对此西方鲜有人知:
09:04
the Party's Organization Department.
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即中共的组织部.
09:07
The department functions like a giant
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组织部运作一套
09:09
human resource engine that would be the envy
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选贤任能的机制
09:12
of even some of the most successful corporations.
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恐怕最成功的商业公司都会自叹弗如.
09:15
It operates a rotating pyramid
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它像一个旋转的金字塔
09:17
made up of three components:
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有三个组成部分:
09:19
civil service, state-owned enterprises,
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即政府职能部门、国有企业，
09:21
and social organizations like a university
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以及政府管辖的事业单位，如大学、
09:23
or a community program.
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社区组织等.
09:26
They form separate yet integrated career paths
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公务人员既可以在某一类部门中长期工作
09:28
for Chinese officials.
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也可以在三类中交替任职.
09:30
They recruit college grads into entry-level positions
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政府以及相关机构从大学毕业生中招录人员
09:33
in all three tracks, and they start from the bottom,
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大部分新人会从最低一级的
09:36
called "keyuan" [clerk].
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科员干起。
09:37
Then they could get promoted
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组织部门会根据其表现，决定是否将其提升
09:39
through four increasingly elite ranks:
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到更高的四个管理职位上:
09:44
fuke [deputy section manager], ke [section manager], fuchu [deputy division manager], and chu [division manger].
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副科、科、副处、处。
09:47
Now these are not moves from "Karate Kid," okay?
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这可不是电影《龙威小子》中的动作名称，
09:49
It's serious business.
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而是严肃的人事工作。
09:53
The range of positions is wide,
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这一区间的职位包罗万象，
09:55
from running health care in a village
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既可以负责贫困农村的卫生工作
09:57
to foreign investment in a city district
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也可能负责城区里的招商引资。
09:59
to manager in a company.
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或一个企业的管理人员.
10:01
Once a year, the department reviews their performance.
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各级干部每年都要接受组织部门的考察.
10:04
They interview their superiors, their peers,
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其中包括征求上级、下级和同事的反馈意见，
10:06
their subordinates. They vet their personal conduct.
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以及个人操守审查.
10:09
They conduct public opinion surveys.
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此外还有民意调查.
10:11
Then they promote the winners.
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最终择优提职.
10:13
Throughout their careers, these cadres
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在整个职业生涯中，干部们
10:14
can move through and out of all three tracks.
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在这三大领域内轮转任职.
10:18
Over time, the good ones move beyond the four base levels
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在基层表现优秀的佼佼者
10:20
to the fuju [deputy bureau chief] and ju [bureau chief] levels.
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可以晋升为副局和正局级干部.
10:23
There, they enter high officialdom.
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进入高级干部行列.
10:26
By that point, a typical assignment will be
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这一级别的干部，有可能
10:28
to manage a district with a population in the millions
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领导数百万人口的城区，
10:31
or a company with hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue.
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也有可能管理年营业收入数亿美元的国有企业.
10:35
Just to show you how competitive the system is,
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从统计数据就可以看出选拔局级干部的竞争有多激烈，
10:38
in 2012, there were 900,000 fuke and ke levels,
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2012年，中国科级与副科级干部约为90万人，
10:42
600,000 fuchu and chu levels,
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处级与副处级干部约为60万人，
10:45
and only 40,000 fuju and ju levels.
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而局级与副局级干部仅为4万人.
10:48
After the ju levels,
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在局级干部中，
10:50
the best few move further up several more ranks,
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最为出众的极少数人才有机会继续晋升， 238
10:53
and eventually make it to the Central Committee.
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最终进入中共中央委员会。
10:56
The process takes two to three decades.
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一个晋升到高层的干部，职业生涯要经过二三十年的历练.
10:59
Does patronage play a role? Yes, of course.
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这过程中有任人唯亲的问题吗，当然有.
11:02
But merit remains the fundamental driver.
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但从根本上，干部是否德才兼备才是提拔的决定性因素。
11:05
In essence, the Organization Department runs
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事实上，中华帝国的官僚体系有着千年历史，
11:08
a modernized version of China's centuries-old
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今天中共的组织部门创造性地继承了这一独特的历史遗产，
11:10
mentoring system.
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并发展成现代化的制度以培养当代中国的政治精英.
11:12
China's new president, Xi Jinping,
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新任国家主席习近平的履历就是非常鲜明的例证.
11:15
is the son of a former leader, which is very unusual,
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习的父亲确实是中共的一位前领导人，这很不寻常,
11:17
first of his kind to make the top job.
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他是第一个前领导人后代当上最高领导的.
11:19
Even for him, the career took 30 years.
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但他的仕途也历经了30年之久
11:22
He started as a village manager,
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习近平从村干部做起，
11:24
and by the time he entered the Politburo,
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一步一个脚印的走到今天这个岗位。在他进入中央政治局之前，
11:26
he had managed areas with a total population
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他领导过的地区总人口累计
11:28
of 150 million people
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已超过1.5亿
11:30
and combined GDPs of 1.5 trillion U.S. dollars.
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创造的GDP合计超过1.5万亿美元.
11:34
Now, please don't get me wrong, okay?
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千万不要误解，
11:37
This is not a put-down of anyone. It's just a statement of fact.
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这不是针对具体的人，仅仅是事实的陈述.
11:40
George W. Bush, remember him?
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如果要论政府管理经验，小布什, 记得他吗?
11:44
This is not a put-down.
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这不是看不起任何人.
11:46
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
11:47
Before becoming governor of Texas,
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在任德州州长前,
11:50
or Barack Obama before running for president,
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和奥巴马第一次问鼎美国总统时，
11:53
could not make even a small county manager
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他们资历还比不上
11:55
in China's system.
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中国一个小县长
11:57
Winston Churchill once said that democracy
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温斯顿·丘吉尔曾说：
11:59
is a terrible system except for all the rest.
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“民主是个坏制度，但其他制度更坏”。
12:02
Well, apparently he hadn't heard of the Organization Department.
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可惜，他没有见识过组织部.
12:06
Now, Westerners always assume that
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西方人总认为
12:08
multi-party election with universal suffrage
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多党竞选和普选
12:11
is the only source of political legitimacy.
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是合法性的唯一来源.
12:14
I was asked once, "The Party wasn't voted in by election.
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曾有人问我：“中共不经选举执政.
12:18
Where is the source of legitimacy?"
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其合法性从何而来？”
12:20
I said, "How about competency?"
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我的回答是：“舍我其谁的执政能力.”
12:24
We all know the facts.
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我们都知道历史.
12:25
In 1949, when the Party took power,
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1949年中共执政时，
12:27
China was mired in civil wars, dismembered by foreign aggression,
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中国战火肆虐，外敌横行，国土四分五裂，满目疮痍,
12:30
average life expectancy at that time, 41 years old.
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中国人的人均寿命仅为41岁。
12:35
Today, it's the second largest economy in the world,
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但在今天，中国已跻身世界第二大经济体，
12:38
an industrial powerhouse, and its people live
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一个工业大国，人民生活
12:40
in increasing prosperity.
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迅速改善。
12:42
Pew Research polls Chinese public attitudes,
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根据皮尤研究中心在中国的民意调查报告，
12:45
and here are the numbers in recent years.
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其中一些数据反映了中国的主流民意：
12:47
Satisfaction with the direction of the country: 85 percent.
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85%的中国民众，对国家未来方向表示满意.
12:52
Those who think they're better off than five years ago:
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民众认为过去五年生活得到改善的比例
12:54
70 percent.
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70%
12:56
Those who expect the future to be better:
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对未来颇感乐观的民众比例,
12:59
a whopping 82 percent.
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压倒性的82%
13:02
Financial Times polls global youth attitudes,
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《金融时报》全球青年民调结果
13:05
and these numbers, brand new, just came from last week.
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刚刚公布的数据显示.
13:08
Ninety-three percent of China's Generation Y
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93%的中国90后年轻人
13:11
are optimistic about their country's future.
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对国家的未来感到乐观。
13:14
Now, if this is not legitimacy, I'm not sure what is.
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如果这不是合法性，那我就不知道到底什么才是合法性了。
13:20
In contrast, most electoral democracies around the world
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相比之下，全世界大部分选举民主制国家
13:23
are suffering from dismal performance.
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都处于惨淡经营的境况。
13:25
I don't need to elaborate for this audience
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关于美国和欧洲的政治困境，
13:27
how dysfunctional it is, from Washington to European capitals.
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在座的听众都了然于胸，无需我再详述。
13:32
With a few exceptions, the vast number
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除了极少数例外，大部分
13:35
of developing countries that have adopted electoral regimes
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采用选举的发展中国家
13:37
are still suffering from poverty and civil strife.
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迄今为止还在遭受贫困和战火的折磨。
13:41
Governments get elected, and then they fall
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政府通过选举上台后，其支持率在几个月内就会跌到
13:43
below 50 percent approval in a few months
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50%以下
13:46
and stay there and get worse until the next election.
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从此一蹶不振甚至持续走低，直到下一次选举.
13:50
Democracy is becoming a perpetual cycle
300
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民主正陷入“一次选举，长期后悔”的周期性怪圈.
13:52
of elect and regret.
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的周期性怪圈.
13:54
At this rate, I'm afraid it is democracy,
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这样下去，失去合法性的
13:58
not China's one-party system, that is in danger
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恐怕不是中国的一党制，
14:00
of losing legitimacy.
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而是选举民主制.
14:03
Now, I don't want to create the misimpression
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当然，我不想造成一种误会
14:06
that China's hunky-dory, on the way
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2008
认为中国成为超级大国
14:08
to some kind of superpowerdom.
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已经指日可待了.
14:09
The country faces enormous challenges.
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中国当前面临巨大挑战.
14:12
The social and economic problems that come
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巨大变迁带来的经济、社会问题数不胜数
14:14
with wrenching change like this are mind-boggling.
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譬如环境污染，
14:18
Pollution is one. Food safety. Population issues.
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食品安全、人口问题.
14:22
On the political front, the worst problem is corruption.
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在政治领域，最大的挑战是腐败.
14:26
Corruption is widespread and undermines the system
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目前，腐败依然猖獗，危及中国的政治制度
14:29
and its moral legitimacy.
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及其道德合法性.
14:30
But most analysts misdiagnose the disease.
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但是，很多分析人士误判了腐败的原因.
14:33
They say that corruption is the result of the one-party system,
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他们声称腐败是一党制导致的，
14:36
and therefore, in order to cure it,
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只有终结一党制
14:38
you have to do away with the entire system.
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才能根绝腐败.
14:40
But a more careful look would tell us otherwise.
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更严谨一点儿的分析将证明这种观点毫无根据.
14:43
Transparency International ranks China
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2920
据透明国际发布的全球清廉指数排名，
14:46
between 70 and 80 in recent years among 170 countries,
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在近170个国家里, 中国近年来的排名在第70到80名之间，
14:49
and it's been moving up.
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且呈逐年上升之势.
14:52
India, the largest democracy in the world,
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印度是世界上人口最多的选举民主制国家，
14:54
94 and dropping.
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排名第94位，且逐年下滑；
14:56
For the hundred or so countries that are ranked below China,
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排名在中国后的约100个国家中，
14:58
more than half of them are electoral democracies.
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超过一半是选举民主制国家.
15:01
So if election is the panacea for corruption,
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如果民主是根治腐败的万灵药，
15:05
how come these countries can't fix it?
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为何在这么多国家不灵呢？
15:08
Now, I'm a venture capitalist. I make bets.
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我是搞风险投资的，长于预测。
15:11
It wouldn't be fair to end this talk without
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因此，不做几个预测就结束今天的演讲
15:14
putting myself on the line and making some predictions.
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似乎不妥.
15:16
So here they are.
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1717
下面是我的预测.
15:18
In the next 10 years, China will surpass the U.S.
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未来十年, 中国将超过美国
15:21
and become the largest economy in the world.
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成为世界第一大经济体.
15:23
Income per capita will be near the top
335
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2081
按人均收入计算也将
15:25
of all developing countries.
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2182
在发展中国家中名列前茅.
15:28
Corruption will be curbed, but not eliminated,
337
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2322
腐败虽然无法根绝，但将得到有效控制.
15:30
and China will move up 10 to 20 notches
338
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2413
在透明国际的全球清廉指数排行榜上，中国有望继续提升10到20名
15:32
to above 60 in T.I. ranking.
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跨入全球最清廉的前60国之列.
15:35
Economic reform will accelerate, political reform will continue,
340
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2927
经济改革会加速实施，政治改革也将继续推进，
15:38
and the one-party system will hold firm.
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3501
中共一党执政将稳固持续.
15:42
We live in the dusk of an era.
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我们正在见证一个时代的落幕.
15:45
Meta-narratives that make universal claims
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在20世纪，我们见证了一个元叙事
15:48
failed us in the 20th century
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因极端教条而失败
15:50
and are failing us in the 21st.
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21世纪的元叙事正重蹈同样的覆辙.
15:53
Meta-narrative is the cancer
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元叙事就像癌症一样
15:55
that is killing democracy from the inside.
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正在从内部吞噬民主.
15:58
Now, I want to clarify something.
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我想澄清一下.
16:00
I'm not here to make an indictment of democracy.
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我并不是要谴责民主.
16:02
On the contrary, I think democracy contributed
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相反，我认为民主
16:05
to the rise of the West and the creation of the modern world.
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对西方的崛起和现代世界的诞生居功至伟.
16:08
It is the universal claim that many Western elites
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然而，很多西方精英
16:11
are making about their political system, the hubris,
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把某一种民主形式模式化、普世化， 他们的傲慢,
16:15
that is at the heart of the West's current ills.
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是西方当前各种病症的病灶所在
16:18
If they would spend just a little less time
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如果西方的精英不是把大把的时间
16:20
on trying to force their way onto others,
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花在向外国推销民主上，
16:23
and a little bit more on political reform at home,
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而是更多关心一下自身的政治改革，
16:26
they might give their democracy a better chance.
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恐怕民主还不至于像今天这样无望.
16:30
China's political model will never supplant
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中国的政治模式不可能取代
16:32
electoral democracy, because unlike the latter,
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选举民主, 因为中国从不将自己的政治制度
16:34
it doesn't pretend to be universal.
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包装成普世通用的模式.
16:36
It cannot be exported. But that is the point precisely.
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也从不热衷于对外输出。但这正是关键所在.
16:40
The significance of China's example
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中国模式的重要意义
16:43
is not that it provides an alternative,
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不在于为世界各国提供了一个可以替代选举民主的新模式
16:45
but the demonstration that alternatives exist.
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而在于从实践上证明了良政的模式不是单一而是多元的，各国都能找到适合本国的政治制度。
16:49
Let us draw to a close this era of meta-narratives.
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让我们为元叙事的时代画个句号吧。
16:53
Communism and democracy may both be laudable ideals,
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共产主义和民主可能都是人类美好的追求，
16:56
but the era of their dogmatic universalism is over.
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但它们普世化的教条时代已经过去。
17:00
Let us stop telling people and our children
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我们的下一代，不需要被灌输说
17:03
there's only one way to govern ourselves
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世界上只有一种政治模式
17:05
and a singular future towards which
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所有社会
17:07
all societies must evolve.
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都只有一种归宿。
17:09
It is wrong. It is irresponsible.
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这是错误的，不负责任的
17:12
And worst of all, it is boring.
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更是乏味的。
17:16
Let universality make way for plurality.
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让世界给多元模式生存的空间吧.
17:20
Perhaps a more interesting age is upon us.
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也许一个更精彩的时代正缓缓拉开帷幕.
17:23
Are we brave enough to welcome it?
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我们有没有勇气拥抱它呢？
17:25
Thank you.
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谢谢.
17:27
(Applause)
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(鼓掌)
17:43
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thanks.
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谢谢.谢谢.谢谢.谢谢.
17:46
Bruno Giussani: Eric, stay with me for a couple of minutes,
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主持人: 世默, 等几分钟,
17:49
because I want to ask you a couple of questions.
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我要问你几个问题.
17:51
I think many here, and in general in Western countries,
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我想很多在座的西方人
17:55
would agree with your statement about analysis
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会同意你多民主制度
17:58
of democratic systems becoming dysfunctional,
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功能失败的分析,
18:01
but at the same time, many would kind of find
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但是同时他们会对
18:04
unsettling the thought that there is an unelected
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一个不是被选举产生
18:08
authority that, without any form of oversight or consultation,
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的政权, 没有任何监督和协商,
18:13
decides what the national interest is.
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去决定国家利益表示怀疑.
18:16
What is the mechanism in the Chinese model
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中国政治模式里有什么机制
18:19
that allows people to say, actually,
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可以让人民
18:21
the national interest as you defined it is wrong?
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说政权所定义的国际利益是错的?
18:24
EXL: You know, Frank Fukuyama, the political scientist,
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政治学者福山
18:28
called the Chinese system "responsive authoritarianism."
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曾经把中国的制度称为”响应民意的威权.”
18:32
It's not exactly right, but I think it comes close.
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这不完全精确,但相差不远.
18:35
So I know the largest public opinion survey company
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我知道中国最大的民意
18:39
in China, okay?
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调查公司.
18:41
Do you know who their biggest client is?
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你知道他们最大的客户是谁吗?
18:43
The Chinese government.
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中国政府.
18:45
Not just from the central government,
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不只是中央政府,
18:48
the city government, the provincial government,
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市级省级政府,
18:49
to the most local neighborhood districts.
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最小的地方政府.
18:51
They conduct surveys all the time.
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他们经常进行民意调查.
18:53
Are you happy with the garbage collection?
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你们对收垃圾等市政服务满意吗?
18:56
Are you happy with the general direction of the country?
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你们对国家的大方向满意吗?
18:58
So there is, in China, there is a different kind of mechanism
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所以,中国有一个很不同的机制
19:01
to be responsive to the demands and the thinking of the people.
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能够去响应人民的诉求.
19:05
My point is, I think we should get unstuck
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我要说的关键是, 我们应该从
19:08
from the thinking that there's only one political system --
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只有一种有效政治制度的思想中解放出来,
19:11
election, election, election --
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只有选举,选举,选举,
19:12
that could make it responsive.
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才能产生响应民意的政府.
19:14
I'm not sure, actually, elections produce
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其实,我不觉得当今世界的选举
19:16
responsive government anymore in the world.
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能够产生响应民意的政府.
19:19
(Applause)
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(鼓掌)
19:23
BG: Many seem to agree.
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主持人: 很多人认为,
19:25
One of the features of a democratic system
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民主制度的一个功能
19:27
is a space for civil society to express itself.
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是让公民社会能够表达自己.
19:31
And you have shown figures about the support
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你举出数据论证
19:33
that the government and the authorities have in China.
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中国政府拥有民众的支持.
19:36
But then you've just mentioned other elements
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但你也讲到其他因素
19:39
like, you know, big challenges, and there are, of course,
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譬如, 巨大的挑战, 当然,
19:41
a lot of other data that go in a different direction:
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还有其他数据显示另外一个方向:
19:44
tens of thousands of unrests and protests
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上万的抗议和群体事件
19:47
and environmental protests, etc.
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环保问题等等.
19:50
So you seem to suggest the Chinese model
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你是否建议中国模式
19:53
doesn't have a space outside of the Party
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不允许在中共以外
19:55
for civil society to express itself.
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有公民社会的空间?
19:57
EXL: There's a vibrant civil society in China,
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李世默: 中国有着相当活跃的公民社会,
20:01
whether it's environment or what-have-you.
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环保组织等等.
20:03
But it's different. You wouldn't recognize it.
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但他们不一样,你可能认不出来.
20:05
Because, by Western definitions, a so-called civil society
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在西方政治学定义里, 公民社会
20:08
has to be separate or even in opposition
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必须存在与政治体制之外
20:11
to the political system,
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甚至对立于政治体制,
20:13
but that concept is alien for Chinese culture.
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但这个思路与中国文化格格不入.
20:17
For thousands of years, you have civil society,
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数千年来在中国,所谓的公民社会都有存在
20:20
yet they are consistent and coherent
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但它们与政治体制
20:22
and part of a political order, and I think
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相辅相成, 我认为
20:25
it's a big cultural difference.
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这是一个很大的文化差异.
20:29
BG: Eric, thank you for sharing this with TED.
EXL: Thank you.
EXL: Thank you.
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主持人: 感谢你与TED分享这些思想.
李世默: 谢谢你.
李世默: 谢谢你.
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Eric X. Li - Investor and political scientistA venture capitalist and political scientist, Eric X Li argues that the universality claim of Western democratic systems is going to be "morally challenged" by China.
Why you should listen
A well-connected venture capitalist in Shanghai, where he was born, Eric X. Li studied in America (and even worked for Ross Perot's 1992 presidential campaign) before returning home, where he started doubting the idea that China's progress could only follow the path of the West's free-market principles.
In a much-discussed op-ed he wrote for the New York Times in February 2012 and in other writings, he has put forth the idea that China needed a different development framework, around a different idea of modernity. The Chinese system, he says, is meritocratic, highly adaptable despite the one-party rule, long term-oriented, pragmatic and non-individualistic. As he writes: "The Chinese political system ... comes close to the best formula for governing a large country: meritocracy at the top, democracy at the bottom, with room for experimentation in between.
While some criticize him as a cheerleader of the Chinese government and a champion of Chinese exceptionalism, Li is comfortable in the role of provocateur. He is the founder of Chengwei Capital in Shanghai, serves on the board of directors of China Europe International Business School (CEIBS) and is a Fellow of the Aspen Institute.
Eric X. Li | Speaker | TED.com