ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Eric X. Li - Investor and political scientist
A venture capitalist and political scientist, Eric X Li argues that the universality claim of Western democratic systems is going to be "morally challenged" by China.

Why you should listen

A well-connected venture capitalist in Shanghai, where he was born, Eric X. Li studied in America (and even worked for Ross Perot's 1992 presidential campaign) before returning home, where he started doubting the idea that China's progress could only follow the path of the West's free-market principles.
 
In a much-discussed op-ed he wrote for the New York Times in February 2012 and in other writings, he has put forth the idea that China needed a different development framework, around a different idea of modernity. The Chinese system, he says, is meritocratic, highly adaptable despite the one-party rule, long term-oriented, pragmatic and non-individualistic. As he writes: "The Chinese political system ... comes close to the best formula for governing a large country: meritocracy at the top, democracy at the bottom, with room for experimentation in between.
 
While some criticize him as a cheerleader of the Chinese government and a champion of Chinese exceptionalism, Li is comfortable in the role of provocateur. He is the founder of Chengwei Capital in Shanghai, serves on the board of directors of China Europe International Business School (CEIBS) and is a Fellow of the Aspen Institute.

More profile about the speaker
Eric X. Li | Speaker | TED.com
TEDGlobal 2013

Eric X. Li: A tale of two political systems

Eric X. Li: Unha historia de dous sistemas políticos

Filmed:
2,924,150 views

É unha suposición estándar en Occidente: conforme unha sociedade progresa, ao final convertése nunha democracia pluripartidista e capitalista. Non si? Eric X. Li, un investidor chinés e politólogo, discrepa. Nesta charla provocativa e forzando os límites, pídelle ao público que considere que hai máis dunha forma de gobernar con éxito unha nación moderna.
- Investor and political scientist
A venture capitalist and political scientist, Eric X Li argues that the universality claim of Western democratic systems is going to be "morally challenged" by China. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:12
Good morning.
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Bos días.
O meu nome é Eric Li, e nacín aquí.
00:14
My name is Eric Li, and I was born here.
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00:19
But no, I wasn't born there.
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Mais non, non nacín aí.
00:21
This was where I was born:
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Aquí é onde nacín.
00:24
Shanghai, at the height of the Cultural Revolution.
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Xangai, no cumio da Revolución Cultural.
00:28
My grandmother tells me that she heard
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A miña avoa conta que escoitou
00:29
the sound of gunfire along with my first cries.
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o son de disparos xunto
cos meus primeiros choros.
00:33
When I was growing up, I was told a story
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Cando fun medrando,
contáronme unha historia
00:36
that explained all I ever needed to know about humanity.
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que explicaba todo o que precisaba
coñecer sobre a humanidade.
00:40
It went like this.
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Esta é a historia.
00:41
All human societies develop in linear progression,
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Todas as sociedades humanas
desenvólvense nunha progresión lineal
00:45
beginning with primitive society, then slave society,
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comezando pola sociedade primitiva,
logo, a sociedade de escravos,
00:48
feudalism, capitalism, socialism,
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feudalismo, capitalismo, socialismo
00:51
and finally, guess where we end up?
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e finalmente, adiviñen con cal rematamos.
00:54
Communism!
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Comunismo!
00:57
Sooner or later, all of humanity,
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Máis tarde ou máis cedo, toda a humanidade
01:01
regardless of culture, language, nationality,
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independentemente da cultura,
lingua, nacionalidade,
01:03
will arrive at this final stage
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chegará a esta etapa final
01:06
of political and social development.
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do desenvolvemento político e social.
01:08
The entire world's peoples will be unified
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Toda a xente do mundo enteiro se unirá
01:10
in this paradise on Earth
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neste paraíso na Terra
01:13
and live happily ever after.
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e vivirá feliz para sempre.
01:15
But before we get there, we're engaged
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Pero antes de chegar alí,
estamos comprometidos
01:18
in a struggle between good and evil,
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nunha loita entre o ben e o mal,
01:20
the good of socialism against the evil of capitalism,
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as bondades do socialismo
contra as maldades do capitalismo,
01:23
and the good shall triumph.
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e o ben sempre triunfará.
01:25
That, of course, was the meta-narrative
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Isto, por suposto, era un metarrelato
01:28
distilled from the theories of Karl Marx.
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destilado das teorías de Karl Marx.
01:31
And the Chinese bought it.
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E os chineses comprárono.
01:33
We were taught that grand story day in and day out.
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Ensináronnos esa gran historia
día si, día non.
01:36
It became part of us, and we believed in it.
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Formaba parte de nós, e criamos nela.
01:39
The story was a bestseller.
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A historia era un best-séller.
01:41
About one third of the entire world's population
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Preto dun terzo da poboación mundial
01:43
lived under that meta-narrative.
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vivía baixo este metarrelato.
01:46
Then, the world changed overnight.
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Entón, o mundo cambiou
da noite para a mañá.
01:49
As for me, disillusioned by the failed religion of my youth,
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Canto a min, desilusionado polo fracaso
da relixión da miña mocidade,
01:52
I went to America and became a Berkeley hippie.
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vin para América e convertinme
nun hippy de Berkeley.
01:55
(Laughter)
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(Risos)
01:59
Now, as I was coming of age, something else happened.
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A medida que ía crecendo,
sucedeu algo.
02:02
As if one big story wasn't enough,
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Coma se cunha gran historia
non fose dabondo,
02:04
I was told another one.
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contáronme outra máis.
02:07
This one was just as grand.
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Esta era igual de grande.
02:10
It also claims that all human societies
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Tamén afirma que todas
as sociedades humanas
02:12
develop in a linear progression towards a singular end.
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desenvolvéronse nunha progresión
lineal cara a un final singular.
02:16
This one went as follows:
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Esta historia é como segue:
02:19
All societies, regardless of culture,
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Todas as sociedades, independentemente
da cultura,
02:21
be it Christian, Muslim, Confucian,
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xa pode ser cristiá,
musulmá, confucianista,
02:24
must progress from traditional societies
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teñen que progresar
dende as sociedades tradicionais
02:26
in which groups are the basic units
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nas cales os grupos son
as unidades básicas
02:29
to modern societies in which atomized individuals
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ata as sociedades modernas
nas cales os individuos atomizados
son as unidades soberanas,
02:33
are the sovereign units,
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02:34
and all these individuals are, by definition, rational,
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e todos estes individuos son,
por definición, racionais,
02:38
and they all want one thing:
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e todos queren unha cousa:
02:40
the vote.
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o voto.
02:42
Because they are all rational, once given the vote,
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Porque todos son racionais,
unha vez que teñan o voto,
02:45
they produce good government
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producirán un bo goberno
02:46
and live happily ever after.
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e vivirán felices para sempre.
02:49
Paradise on Earth, again.
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O paraíso na Terra, unha vez máis.
02:52
Sooner or later, electoral democracy will be
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Máis tarde ou máis cedo,
a democracia electoral será
02:55
the only political system for all countries and all peoples,
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o único sistema político
para todos os países e persoas,
02:59
with a free market to make them all rich.
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cun mercado libre que
os enriquecerá a todos.
03:01
But before we get there, we're engaged in a struggle
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Mais antes de chegar alí,
estamos inmersos nunha loita
03:05
between good and evil.
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entre o ben e o mal.
03:06
(Laughter)
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(Risos)
03:08
The good belongs to those who are democracies
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O ben perténcelles ás democracias
03:10
and are charged with a mission of spreading it
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e están a cargo da misión de expandilo
03:12
around the globe, sometimes by force,
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ao redor do mundo, ás veces pola forza,
03:16
against the evil of those who do not hold elections.
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contra as maldades daqueles que
non realizan eleccións.
George H.W. Bush:
Unha nova orde mundial...
03:19
(Video) George H.W. Bush: A new world order ...
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03:21
(Video) George W. Bush: ... ending tyranny in our world ...
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George W. Bush: ...rematando coa tiranía
no mundo...
03:23
(Video) Barack Obama: ... a single standard for all
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Barack Obama:
...un só estándar para todos
03:25
who would hold power.
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os que teñan o poder.
03:28
Eric X. Li: Now --
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Eric X. Li: Agora --
(Risos) (Aplausos)
03:30
(Laughter) (Applause)
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03:38
This story also became a bestseller.
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Esta historia tamén se
converteu nun best-séller.
03:42
According to Freedom House,
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De acordo coa Freedom House,
o número de democracias
pasou de 45 no ano 1970
03:44
the number of democracies went from 45 in 1970
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03:47
to 115 in 2010.
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a 115 no ano 2010.
03:49
In the last 20 years, Western elites tirelessly
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Nos últimos 20 anos, as elites
occidentais incansablemente
03:52
trotted around the globe selling this prospectus:
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foron ao redor do mundo
vendendo a súa proposta.
03:56
Multiple parties fight for political power
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Múltiples partidos loitando
polo poder político
03:58
and everyone voting on them
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e todas as persoas votándoos,
04:00
is the only path to salvation
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ese é o único camiño á salvación
04:02
to the long-suffering developing world.
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para o sufrido mundo
en desenvolvemento.
04:05
Those who buy the prospectus are destined for success.
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Aqueles que mercaron a proposta
están destinados ao éxito.
04:08
Those who do not are doomed to fail.
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Os que non, están condenados ao fracaso.
04:11
But this time, the Chinese didn't buy it.
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Pero desta vez, os chineses
non o mercaron.
04:14
Fool me once ...
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Se me enganas unha vez...
04:17
(Laughter)
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(Risos)
04:21
The rest is history.
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O resto é historia.
04:23
In just 30 years, China went from
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En só 30 anos, China pasou de ser
04:25
one of the poorest agricultural countries in the world
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un dos países agrícolas
máis pobres do mundo
04:27
to its second-largest economy.
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a converterse na segunda
economía mundial.
04:30
Six hundred fifty million people
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650 millóns de persoas
04:32
were lifted out of poverty.
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saíron da pobreza.
04:33
Eighty percent of the entire world's poverty alleviation
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O oitenta por cento do alivio
mundial da pobreza
04:36
during that period happened in China.
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durante ese período ocorreu en China.
04:38
In other words, all the new and old democracies
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Noutras palabras, todas as
democracias novas e vellas
04:41
put together amounted to a mere fraction
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xuntas fixeron unha mera fracción
04:44
of what a single, one-party state did without voting.
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do que fixo un só estado
de partido único, sen votar.
04:49
See, I grew up on this stuff: food stamps.
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Vedes, eu crecín con estas
cousas: cupóns de comida.
A carne racionouse a
uns poucos centos de gramos
04:53
Meat was rationed to a few hundred grams
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04:55
per person per month at one point.
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por persoa ao mes durante un tempo.
04:57
Needless to say, I ate all my grandmother's portions.
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Non fai falta dicir, eu comía todas as
porcións da miña avoa.
05:01
So I asked myself, what's wrong with this picture?
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Así que me preguntei:
cal é o problema aquí?
05:05
Here I am in my hometown,
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Aquí estou na miña vila natal,
05:07
my business growing leaps and bounds.
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o meu negocio crecendo
rapidamente.
05:09
Entrepreneurs are starting companies every day.
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Os empresarios están a
crear empresas todos os días.
05:11
Middle class is expanding in speed and scale
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A clase media expándese
a unha velocidade e escala
05:14
unprecedented in human history.
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sen precedentes na historia humana.
05:16
Yet, according to the grand story,
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E aínda así, segundo a historia oficial,
05:19
none of this should be happening.
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nada disto debía suceder.
05:22
So I went and did the only thing I could. I studied it.
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Así que fun e fixen o único
que podía facer. Estudeino.
05:25
Yes, China is a one-party state
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Si, China é un estado de partido único
05:27
run by the Chinese Communist Party, the Party,
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gobernado polo Partido
Comunista da China, o Partido,
e non celebran eleccións.
05:31
and they don't hold elections.
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05:33
Three assumptions are made
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Fixéronse tres suposicións
acordes coas teorías políticas
dominantes do noso tempo.
05:35
by the dominant political theories of our time.
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05:38
Such a system is operationally rigid,
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Un sistema así é operativamente ríxido,
05:41
politically closed, and morally illegitimate.
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politicamente cerrado,
e moralmente ilexítimo.
05:45
Well, the assumptions are wrong.
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Ben, estas suposicións son erróneas.
05:48
The opposites are true.
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As opostas son verdade.
05:50
Adaptability, meritocracy, and legitimacy
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Adaptabilidade, meritocracia
e lexitimidade
son as tres características definitorias
05:53
are the three defining characteristics
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05:55
of China's one-party system.
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do sistema de partido único de China.
05:58
Now, most political scientists will tell us
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A maioría de politólogos dirá que
05:59
that a one-party system is inherently incapable
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o sistema de partido único
é inherentemente incapaz
06:03
of self-correction.
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de autocorrixirse.
Non durará moito porque
non pode adaptarse.
06:05
It won't last long because it cannot adapt.
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06:07
Now here are the facts.
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Mais aquí están os datos.
06:09
In 64 years of running the largest country in the world,
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En 64 anos de goberno do país
máis grande do mundo,
06:12
the range of the Party's policies has been wider
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o conxunto de políticas
do Partido foi máis amplo
06:15
than any other country in recent memory,
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que calquera outro país
da historia recente,
06:18
from radical land collectivization to the Great Leap Forward,
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dende a radical colectivización
de terras ata o Gran Salto Adiante,
06:22
then privatization of farmland,
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e logo a privatización
das terras de cultivo,
06:25
then the Cultural Revolution,
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logo a Revolución Cultural,
06:27
then Deng Xiaoping's market reform,
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logo a reforma de mercado
de Deng Xiaoping,
06:30
then successor Jiang Zemin took the giant political step
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logo o seu sucesor Jiang Zemin
deu un paso político xigante
06:33
of opening up Party membership to private businesspeople,
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coa apertura de afiliación ao
Partido para os empresarios,
06:36
something unimaginable during Mao's rule.
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algo inimaxinable durante
o goberno de Mao.
06:39
So the Party self-corrects in rather dramatic fashions.
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Así, o Partido autocorríxese
nos momentos máis extremos.
06:43
Institutionally, new rules get enacted
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Institucionalmente, as novas
normas son adoptadas
06:46
to correct previous dysfunctions.
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para corrixir disfuncións anteriores.
Por exemplo, límites de mandato.
06:48
For example, term limits.
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06:50
Political leaders used to retain their positions for life,
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Os líderes políticos retiñan
os postos de por vida,
06:53
and they used that to accumulate power
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para así acumular o poder
06:54
and perpetuate their rules.
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e perpetuar as súas normas.
06:56
Mao was the father of modern China,
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Mao foi o fundador da China moderna,
aínda así, o seu prolongado mandato
levou a erros desastrosos.
06:59
yet his prolonged rule led to disastrous mistakes.
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07:01
So the Party instituted term limits
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Así que o Partido impuxo
límites de mandato
07:04
with mandatory retirement age of 68 to 70.
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cunha xubilación obrigatoria
aos 68 ou 70 anos.
07:07
One thing we often hear is,
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Unha cousa que escoitamos a miúdo é:
07:10
"Political reforms have lagged far behind economic reforms,"
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"As reformas políticas quedaron
por tras das reformas económicas,"
07:13
and "China is in dire need of political reform."
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e "China precisa con urxencia
unha reforma política."
07:16
But this claim is a rhetorical trap
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Mais esta declaración
é unha trampa retórica
07:19
hidden behind a political bias.
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agachada detrás dun nesgo político.
07:22
See, some have decided a priori
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Mirade, algúns xa decidiron a priori
07:24
what kinds of changes they want to see,
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que tipo de cambios querían ver,
07:26
and only such changes can be called political reform.
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e só eses cambios poden
chamarse reformas políticas.
07:30
The truth is, political reforms have never stopped.
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A verdade é que as reformas
políticas nunca se detiveron.
07:33
Compared with 30 years ago, 20 years, even 10 years ago,
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Comparado con hai 30 anos,
20 ou incluso 10,
07:36
every aspect of Chinese society,
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todos os aspectos da sociedade chinesa,
como se gobernou o país,
07:38
how the country is governed,
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07:39
from the most local level to the highest center,
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dende o nivel máis local ata
o centro do poder,
07:41
are unrecognizable today.
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son hoxe irrecoñecibles.
07:44
Now such changes are simply not possible
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Todos estes cambios
son simplemente imposibles
07:47
without political reforms of the most fundamental kind.
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sen as reformas políticas máis básicas.
07:51
Now I would venture to suggest the Party
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Arriscaríame a suxerir que o Partido
07:53
is the world's leading expert in political reform.
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é o principal experto
do mundo en reforma política.
07:57
The second assumption is that in a one-party state,
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A segunda suposición
é que nun partido único,
08:00
power gets concentrated in the hands of the few,
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o poder concéntrase
nas mans duns cantos,
08:03
and bad governance and corruption follow.
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o que produce malos gobernos e corrupción.
08:05
Indeed, corruption is a big problem,
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En efecto, a corrupción
é un gran problema,
08:08
but let's first look at the larger context.
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pero miremos antes o contexto xeral.
08:10
Now, this may be counterintuitive to you.
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Isto pode resultarvos
contraditorio.
08:12
The Party happens to be one of the most meritocratic
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O Partido resulta ser
unha das institucións políticas
08:15
political institutions in the world today.
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máis meritocráticas do mundo actual.
08:18
China's highest ruling body, the Politburo, has 25 members.
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4101
O máximo órgano de decisión de China,
o Politburó, ten 25 membros.
08:22
In the most recent one, only five of them
178
490259
2088
E no máis recente, só cinco deles
08:24
came from a background of privilege, so-called princelings.
179
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3622
proviñan dun ambiente de privilexio,
os chamados príncipes vermellos.
08:27
The other 20, including the president and the premier,
180
495969
2494
Os outros 20, incluído o presidente
e o primeiro ministro,
08:30
came from entirely ordinary backgrounds.
181
498463
2757
viñan de ambientes totalmente comúns.
08:33
In the larger central committee of 300 or more,
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2441
No Comité central de 300 ou máis,
08:35
the percentage of those who were born
183
503661
1867
a porcentaxe de persoas que naceron
08:37
into power and wealth was even smaller.
184
505528
2459
nun ambiente de poder
e riqueza foi aínda menor.
08:39
The vast majority of senior Chinese leaders
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507987
2830
A inmensa maioría dos
principais líderes chineses
08:42
worked and competed their way to the top.
186
510817
2645
traballaron e loitaron por chegar ao cume.
08:45
Compare that with the ruling elites
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513462
2132
Comparade isto coas elites dirixentes
08:47
in both developed and developing countries,
188
515594
2102
en países desenvolvidos
ou en desenvolvemento,
08:49
I think you'll find the Party being near the top
189
517696
2510
Creo que atoparedes
o Partido nos primeiros postos
08:52
in upward mobility.
190
520206
2634
en mobilidade social ascendente.
08:54
The question then is, how could that be possible
191
522840
2529
A pregunta entón é:
como puido ser isto posible
08:57
in a system run by one party?
192
525369
3219
nun sistema gobernado por un só partido?
09:00
Now we come to a powerful political institution,
193
528588
2892
Agora imos a unha institución
política poderosa
09:03
little-known to Westerners:
194
531480
1517
descoñecida para occidentais:
09:04
the Party's Organization Department.
195
532997
2651
o Departamento de Organización do Partido.
09:07
The department functions like a giant
196
535648
2200
O Departamento funciona coma unha enorme
09:09
human resource engine that would be the envy
197
537848
2376
máquina de recursos humanos
que sería a envexa
09:12
of even some of the most successful corporations.
198
540224
3330
incluso dalgunhas das
empresas máis prósperas.
09:15
It operates a rotating pyramid
199
543554
2269
Dirixe unha pirámide xiratoria
09:17
made up of three components:
200
545823
1367
integrada por tres compoñentes:
09:19
civil service, state-owned enterprises,
201
547190
2556
servizo civil, empresas estatais,
09:21
and social organizations like a university
202
549746
2244
e organizacións sociais
coma a universidade
09:23
or a community program.
203
551990
2138
ou os programas comunitarios.
09:26
They form separate yet integrated career paths
204
554128
2511
Forman carreiras separadas e
aínda así integradas
09:28
for Chinese officials.
205
556639
1904
para funcionarios chineses.
09:30
They recruit college grads into entry-level positions
206
558543
3085
Recrutan graduados universitarios
en posicións básicas
09:33
in all three tracks, and they start from the bottom,
207
561628
2750
nas 3 vías, e
comezan dende a base,
09:36
called "keyuan" [clerk].
208
564378
1556
chamada "keyuan" [obreiro].
09:37
Then they could get promoted
209
565934
1383
Logo poderán ascender
09:39
through four increasingly elite ranks:
210
567317
5116
a través de 4 rangos ascendentes:
09:44
fuke [deputy section manager], ke [section manager], fuchu [deputy division manager], and chu [division manger].
211
572433
3312
fuke, ke, fuchu e chu.
09:47
Now these are not moves from "Karate Kid," okay?
212
575745
2157
Estes non son movementos de Karate Kid.
09:49
It's serious business.
213
577902
3497
Son asuntos serios.
09:53
The range of positions is wide,
214
581399
2337
A variedade de cargos é ampla,
09:55
from running health care in a village
215
583736
1604
dende a xestión da saúde
nunha vila,
09:57
to foreign investment in a city district
216
585340
2243
ao investimento estranxeiro
nun barrio urbano
09:59
to manager in a company.
217
587583
2125
ou a dirección dunha empresa.
Unha vez ao ano, o departamento
avalía o traballo.
10:01
Once a year, the department reviews their performance.
218
589708
2322
10:04
They interview their superiors, their peers,
219
592030
2609
Entrevistan os superiores,
compañeiros
10:06
their subordinates. They vet their personal conduct.
220
594639
2781
e subordinados.
Aproban as condutas persoais.
10:09
They conduct public opinion surveys.
221
597420
2032
Levan a cabo enquisas
de opinión pública.
10:11
Then they promote the winners.
222
599452
1963
E logo, ascenden os gañadores.
Durante as súas carreiras, estes cadros
10:13
Throughout their careers, these cadres
223
601415
1548
10:14
can move through and out of all three tracks.
224
602963
3120
poden moverse entre as 3 vías.
10:18
Over time, the good ones move beyond the four base levels
225
606083
2878
Co tempo, os mellores pasarán
dos catro niveis básicos
10:20
to the fuju [deputy bureau chief] and ju [bureau chief] levels.
226
608961
2692
ata os niveis fuju e ju.
10:23
There, they enter high officialdom.
227
611653
2844
Alí, entrarán na alta burocracia.
10:26
By that point, a typical assignment will be
228
614497
2160
Neste punto, unha tarefa típica sería
10:28
to manage a district with a population in the millions
229
616657
2859
dirixir un distrito cunha poboación
de millóns de persoas
10:31
or a company with hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue.
230
619516
3531
ou unha compañía cuns ingresos
de centos de millóns de dólares.
10:35
Just to show you how competitive the system is,
231
623047
3929
Só para amosarvos o competitivo
que é o sistema,
10:38
in 2012, there were 900,000 fuke and ke levels,
232
626976
3718
en 2012, había 900 000 niveis fuke e ke,
10:42
600,000 fuchu and chu levels,
233
630694
2824
600 000 niveis fuchu e chu,
10:45
and only 40,000 fuju and ju levels.
234
633518
3435
e soamente 40 000 niveis fuju e ju.
10:48
After the ju levels,
235
636953
1728
Despois dos niveis ju,
10:50
the best few move further up several more ranks,
236
638681
2601
só algúns dos mellores
ascenden uns cantos niveis máis,
10:53
and eventually make it to the Central Committee.
237
641282
3131
e finalmente chegan ao Comité Central.
10:56
The process takes two to three decades.
238
644413
2752
O proceso dura dúas ou tres décadas.
10:59
Does patronage play a role? Yes, of course.
239
647165
3109
Intervén o apadriñamento?
Si, por suposto.
11:02
But merit remains the fundamental driver.
240
650274
3572
Pero os méritos son a clave fundamental.
11:05
In essence, the Organization Department runs
241
653846
2530
En esencia, o Departamento
de Organización manexa
11:08
a modernized version of China's centuries-old
242
656376
2473
unha versión modernizada
do centenario sistema chinés
11:10
mentoring system.
243
658849
2064
de mentores.
11:12
China's new president, Xi Jinping,
244
660913
2091
O novo presidente da China, Xi Jinping,
11:15
is the son of a former leader, which is very unusual,
245
663004
2579
é o fillo dun ex-dirixente,
algo moi pouco frecuente,
11:17
first of his kind to make the top job.
246
665583
2220
o primeiro do seu tipo
que chega ao máis alto.
11:19
Even for him, the career took 30 years.
247
667803
2895
Incluso a el lle levou 30 anos.
11:22
He started as a village manager,
248
670698
1868
Comezou como administrador dunha vila,
11:24
and by the time he entered the Politburo,
249
672566
1912
e cando entrou no Politburó,
11:26
he had managed areas with a total population
250
674478
2206
xa gobernara zonas cunha poboación total
11:28
of 150 million people
251
676684
1604
de 150 millóns de persoas.
11:30
and combined GDPs of 1.5 trillion U.S. dollars.
252
678288
4446
e cun PIB combinado
de 1,5 billóns de dólares americanos.
11:34
Now, please don't get me wrong, okay?
253
682734
2320
Por favor, non me interpretedes mal,
de acordo?
Isto non é un desprezo a ninguén.
É só a declaración dun feito.
11:37
This is not a put-down of anyone. It's just a statement of fact.
254
685054
3254
11:40
George W. Bush, remember him?
255
688308
3834
George W. Bush, acordádesvos del?
11:44
This is not a put-down.
256
692142
2441
Isto non é un desprezo.
11:46
(Laughter)
257
694583
805
(Risos)
11:47
Before becoming governor of Texas,
258
695388
3099
Antes de converterse en
gobernador de Texas,
11:50
or Barack Obama before running for president,
259
698487
2619
ou Barack Obama antes de
presentarse para presidente,
11:53
could not make even a small county manager
260
701106
2759
non poderían ser nin dirixentes
dun pequeno condado
11:55
in China's system.
261
703865
1928
no sistema chinés.
11:57
Winston Churchill once said that democracy
262
705793
2022
Winston Churchill dixo que a democracia
11:59
is a terrible system except for all the rest.
263
707815
2319
é un sistema terrible sacando o resto.
12:02
Well, apparently he hadn't heard of the Organization Department.
264
710134
4281
Aparentemente non coñecía
o Departamento da Organización.
12:06
Now, Westerners always assume that
265
714415
2344
Os occidentais sempre asumen que
12:08
multi-party election with universal suffrage
266
716759
3018
as eleccións multipartidistas
con sufraxio universal
12:11
is the only source of political legitimacy.
267
719777
3142
son a única fonte de
lexitimidade política.
12:14
I was asked once, "The Party wasn't voted in by election.
268
722919
3362
Unha vez preguntáronme:
"O Partido nunca foi elixido nas urnas.
12:18
Where is the source of legitimacy?"
269
726281
2230
Onde está a súa lexitimidade?"
12:20
I said, "How about competency?"
270
728511
3562
Respondín: "E que hai da competencia?"
12:24
We all know the facts.
271
732073
1477
Todos coñecemos os feitos.
12:25
In 1949, when the Party took power,
272
733550
1941
En 1949, cando o Partido tomou o poder,
12:27
China was mired in civil wars, dismembered by foreign aggression,
273
735491
3327
China estaba sumida en guerras civís,
dividida por agresións foráneas,
12:30
average life expectancy at that time, 41 years old.
274
738818
4295
daquela, a esperanza
de vida era de 41 anos.
12:35
Today, it's the second largest economy in the world,
275
743113
2910
Hoxe, é a segunda potencia mundial,
12:38
an industrial powerhouse, and its people live
276
746023
2603
unha potencia industrial,
e a súa xente vive
12:40
in increasing prosperity.
277
748626
2087
nunha prosperidade que medra.
12:42
Pew Research polls Chinese public attitudes,
278
750713
3153
Pew Research fixo enquisas
sobre as actitudes públicas chinesas,
12:45
and here are the numbers in recent years.
279
753866
2057
e estas son as cifras dos últimos anos.
12:47
Satisfaction with the direction of the country: 85 percent.
280
755923
4500
Satisfacción coa dirección
que leva o país: 85 %.
12:52
Those who think they're better off than five years ago:
281
760423
2311
Os que pensan que están
mellor que hai 5 anos:
12:54
70 percent.
282
762734
2264
70 %.
12:56
Those who expect the future to be better:
283
764998
2384
Os que imaxinan que o futuro vai mellorar:
12:59
a whopping 82 percent.
284
767382
2664
un xigantesco 82 %.
13:02
Financial Times polls global youth attitudes,
285
770046
3529
O Financial Times pregunta
polas actitudes globais da xuventude,
13:05
and these numbers, brand new, just came from last week.
286
773575
3415
e estas cifras, moi recentes,
publicáronse a semana pasada.
13:08
Ninety-three percent of China's Generation Y
287
776990
2782
O 93 % da xeración Y chinesa
13:11
are optimistic about their country's future.
288
779772
2586
é optimista sobre o futuro do seu país.
13:14
Now, if this is not legitimacy, I'm not sure what is.
289
782358
5888
Entón, se isto non é lexitimidade,
non sei que é.
13:20
In contrast, most electoral democracies around the world
290
788246
3169
Pola contra, a maioría das democracias
electorais ao redor do mundo
13:23
are suffering from dismal performance.
291
791415
2103
están a sufrir un pésimo desempeño.
13:25
I don't need to elaborate for this audience
292
793518
2315
Non preciso explicarlle a esta audiencia
13:27
how dysfunctional it is, from Washington to European capitals.
293
795833
4337
como de disfuncional é isto,
dende Washington ata as capitais europeas.
13:32
With a few exceptions, the vast number
294
800170
2889
Cunhas cantas excepcións, un gran número
13:35
of developing countries that have adopted electoral regimes
295
803059
2907
de países en desenvolvemento
que adoptaron réximes electorais
13:37
are still suffering from poverty and civil strife.
296
805966
3811
aínda sofren pobreza e conflitos civís.
13:41
Governments get elected, and then they fall
297
809777
1940
Escóllense os gobernos, e logo caen
13:43
below 50 percent approval in a few months
298
811717
2735
por baixo do 50 % de aprobación
aos poucos meses
13:46
and stay there and get worse until the next election.
299
814452
3548
e permanecen alí e empeoran
ata as próximas eleccións.
13:50
Democracy is becoming a perpetual cycle
300
818000
2423
A democracia estase
a converter nun ciclo perpetuo
13:52
of elect and regret.
301
820423
2378
de elixir e arrepentirse.
13:54
At this rate, I'm afraid it is democracy,
302
822801
3529
A este ritmo, temo que é a democracia,
13:58
not China's one-party system, that is in danger
303
826330
2620
non o sistema chinés de partido único,
o que está en risco
14:00
of losing legitimacy.
304
828950
2259
de perder a lexitimidade.
14:03
Now, I don't want to create the misimpression
305
831209
2850
Ben, non quero crear unha impresión falsa
14:06
that China's hunky-dory, on the way
306
834059
2008
de que todo vai ben en China,
en camiño de ser
14:08
to some kind of superpowerdom.
307
836067
1793
algo parecido a unha superpotencia.
14:09
The country faces enormous challenges.
308
837860
2959
O país enfróntase a enormes retos.
14:12
The social and economic problems that come
309
840819
1903
Os problemas socioeconómicos que veñen
14:14
with wrenching change like this are mind-boggling.
310
842722
4006
con cambios enormes coma este
son alucinantes.
14:18
Pollution is one. Food safety. Population issues.
311
846728
3547
A polución é un. Seguridade alimentaria.
Problemas de poboación.
14:22
On the political front, the worst problem is corruption.
312
850275
3947
Na fronte política, o peor dos problemas
é a corrupción.
14:26
Corruption is widespread and undermines the system
313
854222
2832
A corrupción está moi estendida
e debilita o sistema
14:29
and its moral legitimacy.
314
857054
1802
e a súa lexitimidade moral.
14:30
But most analysts misdiagnose the disease.
315
858856
2847
Pero moitos analistas erran
diagnosticando a enfermidade.
14:33
They say that corruption is the result of the one-party system,
316
861703
2909
Din que a corrupción é o resultado
do sistema unipartidista,
14:36
and therefore, in order to cure it,
317
864612
1501
e por iso, para curalo,
hai que eliminar o sistema ao completo.
14:38
you have to do away with the entire system.
318
866113
2057
14:40
But a more careful look would tell us otherwise.
319
868170
3082
Pero unha ollada máis coidadosa,
diravos outra cousa.
14:43
Transparency International ranks China
320
871252
2920
Transparencia Internacional
clasifica China
14:46
between 70 and 80 in recent years among 170 countries,
321
874172
3766
entre os postos 70 e 80 nos últimos anos
nun total de 170 países,
14:49
and it's been moving up.
322
877938
2177
e continúa a subir.
14:52
India, the largest democracy in the world,
323
880115
2063
India, a democracia máis grande do mundo,
14:54
94 and dropping.
324
882178
2147
está no 94 e caendo.
Dos cento e pico países que
están por baixo de China,
14:56
For the hundred or so countries that are ranked below China,
325
884325
2462
14:58
more than half of them are electoral democracies.
326
886787
3009
máis da metade son democracias electorais.
15:01
So if election is the panacea for corruption,
327
889796
3295
Así que se as eleccións son
a panacea da corrupción,
15:05
how come these countries can't fix it?
328
893091
3243
como é que estes países
non poden arranxala?
15:08
Now, I'm a venture capitalist. I make bets.
329
896334
3594
Son un capitalista de risco, fago apostas.
15:11
It wouldn't be fair to end this talk without
330
899928
2332
Non sería xusto rematar esta charla
15:14
putting myself on the line and making some predictions.
331
902260
2632
sen arriscarme e facer
unhas cantas predicións.
15:16
So here they are.
332
904892
1717
Así que aquí están.
15:18
In the next 10 years, China will surpass the U.S.
333
906609
2802
Nos próximos 10 anos, China superará
os Estados Unidos
15:21
and become the largest economy in the world.
334
909411
2377
e converterase na maior economía do mundo.
15:23
Income per capita will be near the top
335
911788
2081
A renda per cápita, rozará o máximo
15:25
of all developing countries.
336
913869
2182
de todos os países en desenvolvemento.
Frearase a corrupción,
pero non se eliminará,
15:28
Corruption will be curbed, but not eliminated,
337
916051
2322
15:30
and China will move up 10 to 20 notches
338
918373
2413
e China subirá de 10 a 20 postos
por riba do 60 na clasificación
de Transparencia Internacional
15:32
to above 60 in T.I. ranking.
339
920786
2842
A reforma económica acelerarase,
a reforma política continuará
15:35
Economic reform will accelerate, political reform will continue,
340
923628
2927
15:38
and the one-party system will hold firm.
341
926555
3501
e o sistema unipartidista manterase firme.
15:42
We live in the dusk of an era.
342
930056
3158
Vivimos no ocaso dunha era.
15:45
Meta-narratives that make universal claims
343
933214
3285
Os metarrelatos que fan
afirmacións universais
15:48
failed us in the 20th century
344
936499
1961
falláronnos no século XX
15:50
and are failing us in the 21st.
345
938460
2784
e seguen a fallarnos no século XXI.
15:53
Meta-narrative is the cancer
346
941244
2594
Os metarrelatos son o cancro
15:55
that is killing democracy from the inside.
347
943838
2807
que está a matar a democracia
dende dentro.
15:58
Now, I want to clarify something.
348
946645
1767
Quero aclarar unha cousa.
16:00
I'm not here to make an indictment of democracy.
349
948412
2520
Non estou aquí para criticar a democracia.
16:02
On the contrary, I think democracy contributed
350
950932
2593
Ao contrario, penso
que a democracia contribuíu
16:05
to the rise of the West and the creation of the modern world.
351
953525
3196
ao ascenso de Occidente e
á creación do mundo moderno.
16:08
It is the universal claim that many Western elites
352
956721
3111
É a reivindicación universal
que moitas elites occidentais
16:11
are making about their political system, the hubris,
353
959832
3489
están a facer sobre
o seu sistema político, a arrogancia,
16:15
that is at the heart of the West's current ills.
354
963321
3239
o que está no corazón
dos males actuais de Occidente.
16:18
If they would spend just a little less time
355
966560
2305
Se perdesen menos tempo
16:20
on trying to force their way onto others,
356
968865
2140
tratando de impoñerlles
o seu sistema a outros,
16:23
and a little bit more on political reform at home,
357
971005
3652
e un pouco máis
nas súas propias reformas políticas,
16:26
they might give their democracy a better chance.
358
974672
3390
farían algo mellor pola democracia.
16:30
China's political model will never supplant
359
978062
2378
O modelo político chinés nunca suplantará
16:32
electoral democracy, because unlike the latter,
360
980440
2320
a democracia electoral,
porque ao contrario desta,
16:34
it doesn't pretend to be universal.
361
982760
1957
non pretende ser universal.
16:36
It cannot be exported. But that is the point precisely.
362
984717
3832
Non pode ser exportado.
Pero este é precisamente o tema.
16:40
The significance of China's example
363
988549
2599
A importancia do exemplo chinés
16:43
is not that it provides an alternative,
364
991148
1967
non está en proporcionar unha alternativa,
16:45
but the demonstration that alternatives exist.
365
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4440
senón en demostrar
que existen alternativas.
Pechemos esta era de metarrelatos.
16:49
Let us draw to a close this era of meta-narratives.
366
997555
3634
16:53
Communism and democracy may both be laudable ideals,
367
1001189
3363
O comunismo e a democracia
poden ser os dous ideais loables,
16:56
but the era of their dogmatic universalism is over.
368
1004552
4101
pero a era do seu universalismo
dogmático terminou.
17:00
Let us stop telling people and our children
369
1008653
2487
Deixemos de dicirlle á xente
e aos nosos fillos
17:03
there's only one way to govern ourselves
370
1011140
2252
que só existe unha forma de gobernarnos
17:05
and a singular future towards which
371
1013392
1809
e un futuro único cara ao que
17:07
all societies must evolve.
372
1015201
2382
todas as sociedades deben evolucionar.
17:09
It is wrong. It is irresponsible.
373
1017583
2795
Iso é incorrecto e irresponsable.
17:12
And worst of all, it is boring.
374
1020378
4238
E o peor de todo, é aburrido.
17:16
Let universality make way for plurality.
375
1024616
3919
Deixemos que a universalidade
abra paso á pluralidade.
17:20
Perhaps a more interesting age is upon us.
376
1028535
3197
Quizais se aproxime
unha era máis interesante.
17:23
Are we brave enough to welcome it?
377
1031732
2213
Somos valentes abondo
como para darlle a benvida?
17:25
Thank you.
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1033945
1194
Grazas.
17:27
(Applause)
379
1035139
16019
(Aplausos)
17:43
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thanks.
380
1051158
3636
Grazas. Grazas. Grazas. Graciñas.
17:46
Bruno Giussani: Eric, stay with me for a couple of minutes,
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2206
Bruno Giussani: Eric, queda
un par de minutos,
17:49
because I want to ask you a couple of questions.
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2714
porque quero facerche unhas preguntas.
17:51
I think many here, and in general in Western countries,
383
1059714
3528
Penso que aquí, e en xeral
nos países occidentais,
17:55
would agree with your statement about analysis
384
1063242
3402
estarán de acordo coas túas declaracións
sobre a análise
17:58
of democratic systems becoming dysfunctional,
385
1066644
2705
dos sistemas democráticos
que se volven disfuncionais,
18:01
but at the same time, many would kind of find
386
1069349
2927
pero, ao mesmo tempo, moitos atoparán
18:04
unsettling the thought that there is an unelected
387
1072276
3945
desacougante pensar
que hai unha autoridade
18:08
authority that, without any form of oversight or consultation,
388
1076221
5396
non elixida que, sen ningunha forma
de supervisión ou consulta,
18:13
decides what the national interest is.
389
1081617
2915
decide cal é o interese nacional.
18:16
What is the mechanism in the Chinese model
390
1084532
3002
Cal é o mecanismo no modelo chinés
18:19
that allows people to say, actually,
391
1087534
2219
que lle permite á xente dicir,
de feito,
18:21
the national interest as you defined it is wrong?
392
1089753
2587
que o interese nacional
como se definiu é incorrecto?
18:24
EXL: You know, Frank Fukuyama, the political scientist,
393
1092340
4062
EXL: Frank Fukuyama, o politólogo,
18:28
called the Chinese system "responsive authoritarianism."
394
1096402
3844
chamoulle ao sistema chinés
"autoritarismo receptivo."
18:32
It's not exactly right, but I think it comes close.
395
1100246
3110
Isto non é exactamente correcto,
pero penso que se achega.
18:35
So I know the largest public opinion survey company
396
1103356
3974
Coñezo a empresa máis grande
de enquisas de opinión pública
18:39
in China, okay?
397
1107330
1882
en China.
18:41
Do you know who their biggest client is?
398
1109212
2680
Sabe quen é o seu mellor cliente?
18:43
The Chinese government.
399
1111892
1846
O goberno chinés.
18:45
Not just from the central government,
400
1113738
2466
Non só dende o goberno central,
18:48
the city government, the provincial government,
401
1116204
1424
o municipal, o provincial,
18:49
to the most local neighborhood districts.
402
1117628
2079
ata a maioría dos distritos de barrio.
18:51
They conduct surveys all the time.
403
1119707
2143
Realizan enquisas todo o tempo.
18:53
Are you happy with the garbage collection?
404
1121850
2610
Estades contentos coa recollida de lixo?
Estades contentos coa
dirección xeral do país?
18:56
Are you happy with the general direction of the country?
405
1124460
2112
Así que, en China, hai un tipo
diferente de mecanismo
18:58
So there is, in China, there is a different kind of mechanism
406
1126572
3261
19:01
to be responsive to the demands and the thinking of the people.
407
1129833
3561
para ter en conta as demandas
e o que pensa a xente.
19:05
My point is, I think we should get unstuck
408
1133394
3208
O que eu penso é que
deberiamos despegarnos
19:08
from the thinking that there's only one political system --
409
1136602
2431
do pensamento de que
só hai un sistema político,
19:11
election, election, election --
410
1139033
1545
eleccións, eleccións, eleccións,
19:12
that could make it responsive.
411
1140578
1728
que pode que responda.
19:14
I'm not sure, actually, elections produce
412
1142306
1984
Non estou seguro, de feito, as eleccións
xa non producen gobernos que respondan.
19:16
responsive government anymore in the world.
413
1144290
2946
19:19
(Applause)
414
1147236
4707
(Aplausos)
19:23
BG: Many seem to agree.
415
1151943
1160
BG: Seica moitos concordan.
19:25
One of the features of a democratic system
416
1153103
2656
Unha das características
dun sistema democrático
19:27
is a space for civil society to express itself.
417
1155759
3269
é o espazo para que a sociedade civil
se exprese por si mesma.
19:31
And you have shown figures about the support
418
1159028
2368
E amosaches cifras do apoio
19:33
that the government and the authorities have in China.
419
1161396
2904
que o goberno e as autoridades
teñen en China.
19:36
But then you've just mentioned other elements
420
1164300
3305
Mais logo mencionaches outros elementos
19:39
like, you know, big challenges, and there are, of course,
421
1167605
2154
como, xa sabes, grandes retos,
e hai, claro,
19:41
a lot of other data that go in a different direction:
422
1169759
2926
unha morea doutros datos
que van nunha dirección diferente:
19:44
tens of thousands of unrests and protests
423
1172685
2657
decenas de miles de axitacións e protestas
19:47
and environmental protests, etc.
424
1175342
2859
e protestas ambientais, etc.
19:50
So you seem to suggest the Chinese model
425
1178201
3016
E parece que suxires que o modelo chinés
19:53
doesn't have a space outside of the Party
426
1181217
2111
non ten un espazo fóra do Partido
19:55
for civil society to express itself.
427
1183328
2301
para que a sociedade civil se exprese.
19:57
EXL: There's a vibrant civil society in China,
428
1185629
4178
EXL: Hai unha sociedade civil
moi vibrante en China,
20:01
whether it's environment or what-have-you.
429
1189807
1629
xa sexa polo medio ou o que queiras.
20:03
But it's different. You wouldn't recognize it.
430
1191436
2248
Pero é diferente. Non poderías recoñecela.
20:05
Because, by Western definitions, a so-called civil society
431
1193684
2882
Porque, nas definicións occidentais,
a chamada sociedade civil
20:08
has to be separate or even in opposition
432
1196566
2844
ten que estar separada
ou incluso en oposición
20:11
to the political system,
433
1199410
1691
ao sistema político,
20:13
but that concept is alien for Chinese culture.
434
1201101
4765
pero ese concepto é descoñecido
para a sociedade chinesa.
20:17
For thousands of years, you have civil society,
435
1205866
2473
Durante miles de anos,
tes unha sociedade civil,
20:20
yet they are consistent and coherent
436
1208339
2489
mais é consistente e coherente
20:22
and part of a political order, and I think
437
1210828
2847
e forma parte da orde política, e penso
20:25
it's a big cultural difference.
438
1213675
3370
que é unha gran diferenza cultural.
20:29
BG: Eric, thank you for sharing this with TED.
EXL: Thank you.
439
1217045
3627
BG: Eric, moitas grazas por compartir
isto con TED. EXL: Grazas.
Translated by Lucía López
Reviewed by Carme Paz

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Eric X. Li - Investor and political scientist
A venture capitalist and political scientist, Eric X Li argues that the universality claim of Western democratic systems is going to be "morally challenged" by China.

Why you should listen

A well-connected venture capitalist in Shanghai, where he was born, Eric X. Li studied in America (and even worked for Ross Perot's 1992 presidential campaign) before returning home, where he started doubting the idea that China's progress could only follow the path of the West's free-market principles.
 
In a much-discussed op-ed he wrote for the New York Times in February 2012 and in other writings, he has put forth the idea that China needed a different development framework, around a different idea of modernity. The Chinese system, he says, is meritocratic, highly adaptable despite the one-party rule, long term-oriented, pragmatic and non-individualistic. As he writes: "The Chinese political system ... comes close to the best formula for governing a large country: meritocracy at the top, democracy at the bottom, with room for experimentation in between.
 
While some criticize him as a cheerleader of the Chinese government and a champion of Chinese exceptionalism, Li is comfortable in the role of provocateur. He is the founder of Chengwei Capital in Shanghai, serves on the board of directors of China Europe International Business School (CEIBS) and is a Fellow of the Aspen Institute.

More profile about the speaker
Eric X. Li | Speaker | TED.com

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