TEDGlobal 2013
Eric X. Li: A tale of two political systems
Eric X. Li (李世默): 「雙政記」
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根據一般西方假設，所有社會進展終將步入資本主義、多黨民主制。真是如此嗎?中國投資家及政治學家李世默 (艾瑞克‧李)，提出不同看法。在他令人深思的演講中，引導觀眾思考成功現代社會的治理方式不只一種。
Eric X. Li - Investor and political scientist
A venture capitalist and political scientist, Eric X Li argues that the universality claim of Western democratic systems is going to be "morally challenged" by China. Full bio
A venture capitalist and political scientist, Eric X Li argues that the universality claim of Western democratic systems is going to be "morally challenged" by China. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Good morning.
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大家早
00:14
My name is Eric Li, and I was born here.
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我是李世默 (艾瑞克)
這是我的出生地
這是我的出生地
00:19
But no, I wasn't born there.
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但當時不是長那樣
00:21
This was where I was born:
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而是這個樣子
00:24
Shanghai, at the height of the Cultural Revolution.
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當時文化大革命
正在上海如火如荼地展開
正在上海如火如荼地展開
00:28
My grandmother tells me that she heard
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我祖母說她聽見了
00:29
the sound of gunfire along with my first cries.
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我出生的啼聲及砲火之聲
00:33
When I was growing up, I was told a story
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當我長大時，聽到了一種說法
00:36
that explained all I ever needed to know about humanity.
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解釋了一切對人類應有的了解
00:40
It went like this.
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它是這樣說的
00:41
All human societies develop in linear progression,
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所有人類社會都以線性的方式進展
00:45
beginning with primitive society, then slave society,
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由原始社會開始，接著依序是奴隸社會
00:48
feudalism, capitalism, socialism,
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封建社會、資本主義及社會主義型社會
00:51
and finally, guess where we end up?
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猜猜最後我們會進入哪種型態的社會呢?
00:54
Communism!
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共產主義社會！
00:57
Sooner or later, all of humanity,
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或早或晚，所有人類文明
01:01
regardless of culture, language, nationality,
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無論文化、語言、國籍
01:03
will arrive at this final stage
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最終都會達到此階段的
01:06
of political and social development.
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政治及社會發展形式
01:08
The entire world's peoples will be unified
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世界上各個民族將一統並達到
01:10
in this paradise on Earth
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天上人間的境界
01:13
and live happily ever after.
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從此過著幸福快樂的日子
01:15
But before we get there, we're engaged
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但在那之前，我們面臨著
01:18
in a struggle between good and evil,
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善與惡之間的掙扎
01:20
the good of socialism against the evil of capitalism,
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善的社會主義與惡的資本主義對抗
01:23
and the good shall triumph.
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善的一方終將獲勝
01:25
That, of course, was the meta-narrative
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毫無疑問地，這後設敘述就是
01:28
distilled from the theories of Karl Marx.
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馬克斯主義延伸而來的故事
01:31
And the Chinese bought it.
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為中國人廣為相信
01:33
We were taught that grand story day in and day out.
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中國時常以這套美好的故事來教導我們
01:36
It became part of us, and we believed in it.
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成為我們生活的一環
也因此深信不疑
也因此深信不疑
01:39
The story was a bestseller.
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這是最流行的說法
01:41
About one third of the entire world's population
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解釋世界上三分之一的人口
01:43
lived under that meta-narrative.
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生活於這種後設敘述之中
01:46
Then, the world changed overnight.
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接著，世界在一夕之間改變了
01:49
As for me, disillusioned by the failed religion of my youth,
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對我而言，這是過去信仰的幻滅
01:52
I went to America and became a Berkeley hippie.
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我到美國成為柏克萊的嬉皮族
01:55
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
01:59
Now, as I was coming of age, something else happened.
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我成年之後，另外一件事發生了
02:02
As if one big story wasn't enough,
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彷彿一種版本的說法還不夠
02:04
I was told another one.
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我又聽到另一種說法
02:07
This one was just as grand.
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聽起來也同樣偉大
02:10
It also claims that all human societies
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它也說所有人類社會
02:12
develop in a linear progression towards a singular end.
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以線性方式發展到單一的終點
02:16
This one went as follows:
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它說
02:19
All societies, regardless of culture,
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無論是哪種文化，所有社會
02:21
be it Christian, Muslim, Confucian,
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不管是基督教、伊斯蘭教、儒教
02:24
must progress from traditional societies
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都來自於傳統的社會
02:26
in which groups are the basic units
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各族群為組成現代社會的基本單位
02:29
to modern societies in which atomized individuals
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社會中的個人
02:33
are the sovereign units,
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為統領單位
02:34
and all these individuals are, by definition, rational,
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所有人皆為理性的個體
02:38
and they all want one thing:
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都希望能夠擁有
02:40
the vote.
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選票
02:42
Because they are all rational, once given the vote,
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因為所有人都是理性的，只要擁有選票
02:45
they produce good government
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就能選出好的政府
02:46
and live happily ever after.
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並有美好結局
02:49
Paradise on Earth, again.
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同樣達到地上的樂園
02:52
Sooner or later, electoral democracy will be
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或早或晚，民選的民主政體
02:55
the only political system for all countries and all peoples,
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將成為所有國家及民族的政體
02:59
with a free market to make them all rich.
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擁有均富的自由市場
03:01
But before we get there, we're engaged in a struggle
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但到達之前，勢必面臨著
03:05
between good and evil.
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善惡之爭
03:06
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
03:08
The good belongs to those who are democracies
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善為民主的一方
03:10
and are charged with a mission of spreading it
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身負全人類的重大使命
03:12
around the globe, sometimes by force,
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必要時以武力
03:16
against the evil of those who do not hold elections.
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抵抗非民選的獨裁國家
03:19
(Video) George H.W. Bush: A new world order ...
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(影片) 老布希：一個新的世界秩序...
03:21
(Video) George W. Bush: ... ending tyranny in our world ...
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(影片) 小布希：...終結世界上的獨裁統治
03:23
(Video) Barack Obama: ... a single standard for all
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(影片) 歐巴馬：...為所有執政者
03:25
who would hold power.
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所共有的一套標準
03:28
Eric X. Li: Now --
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這時
03:30
(Laughter) (Applause)
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(笑聲)
(掌聲)
(掌聲)
03:38
This story also became a bestseller.
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這也成為最流行的說法
03:42
According to Freedom House,
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根據自由之家 (譯註：推廣民主自由的非政府組織)
03:44
the number of democracies went from 45 in 1970
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民主國家的數量由 1970 年的 45 國
03:47
to 115 in 2010.
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成長到 2010 年的 115 國
03:49
In the last 20 years, Western elites tirelessly
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在過去 20 年間，西方菁英不辭辛勞
03:52
trotted around the globe selling this prospectus:
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走訪世界各地宣傳以下理念：
03:56
Multiple parties fight for political power
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多黨爭取政治權力
03:58
and everyone voting on them
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以及民選機制
04:00
is the only path to salvation
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才是唯一能夠拯救
04:02
to the long-suffering developing world.
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長期受苦的發展中國家的途徑
04:05
Those who buy the prospectus are destined for success.
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擁有這種信念的人終將成功
04:08
Those who do not are doomed to fail.
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沒有的則必然失敗
04:11
But this time, the Chinese didn't buy it.
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但這一次，中國人不再相信
04:14
Fool me once ...
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上一次當...
(譯註：上一次當為對方狡詐，上第二次當為自己笨)
(譯註：上一次當為對方狡詐，上第二次當為自己笨)
04:17
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
(譯註：上一次當為對方狡詐，上第二次當為自己笨)
(譯註：上一次當為對方狡詐，上第二次當為自己笨)
04:21
The rest is history.
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之後所發生的事，大家都已知道了
04:23
In just 30 years, China went from
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中國在短短 30 年間
04:25
one of the poorest agricultural countries in the world
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由世界上最窮的農業國之一
04:27
to its second-largest economy.
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成為了第二大經濟體
04:30
Six hundred fifty million people
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6.5 億的人口
04:32
were lifted out of poverty.
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已脫離貧窮
04:33
Eighty percent of the entire world's poverty alleviation
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當時世界上 80% 脫離貧窮的人口皆在中國
04:36
during that period happened in China.
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當時世界上 80% 脫離貧窮的人口皆在中國
04:38
In other words, all the new and old democracies
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換言之
04:41
put together amounted to a mere fraction
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新舊各民主國家的總和也不及
04:44
of what a single, one-party state did without voting.
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這一黨專制國家的表現
04:49
See, I grew up on this stuff: food stamps.
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我從小仰賴的生活用品：糧票
04:53
Meat was rationed to a few hundred grams
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有段時期肉類地配給
04:55
per person per month at one point.
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為每人每月數百克
04:57
Needless to say, I ate all my grandmother's portions.
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當然，我把奶奶的配給額吃光了
05:01
So I asked myself, what's wrong with this picture?
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於是我問自己，這種機制有什麼問題
05:05
Here I am in my hometown,
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在我家鄉裡
05:07
my business growing leaps and bounds.
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我的事業不斷蒸蒸日上
05:09
Entrepreneurs are starting companies every day.
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每天都有企業家創立公司
05:11
Middle class is expanding in speed and scale
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中產階級不斷壯大且成長迅速
05:14
unprecedented in human history.
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為人類史上前所未見
05:16
Yet, according to the grand story,
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但根據之前的說法
05:19
none of this should be happening.
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這些現象皆不應發生
05:22
So I went and did the only thing I could. I studied it.
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於是我唯一能做的就是進行研究
05:25
Yes, China is a one-party state
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確實，中國是一黨專制的國家
05:27
run by the Chinese Communist Party, the Party,
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執政黨為中國共產黨，簡稱共產黨
05:31
and they don't hold elections.
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也沒有民主投票
05:33
Three assumptions are made
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現代主要的政治理論
05:35
by the dominant political theories of our time.
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有三個假設
05:38
Such a system is operationally rigid,
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舉例來說，這種系統執行上較為僵化
05:41
politically closed, and morally illegitimate.
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政治封閉且不合乎道德原則
05:45
Well, the assumptions are wrong.
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但假設都是錯的
05:48
The opposites are true.
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實際情形恰恰相反
05:50
Adaptability, meritocracy, and legitimacy
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適應性強，唯才是用，合乎正當性
05:53
are the three defining characteristics
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才是中國一黨治國
05:55
of China's one-party system.
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的主要特色
05:58
Now, most political scientists will tell us
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多數的政治學家認為
05:59
that a one-party system is inherently incapable
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一黨的統治方式
06:03
of self-correction.
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無法自我修正
06:05
It won't last long because it cannot adapt.
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故因無法適應而不能長存
06:07
Now here are the facts.
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事實上
06:09
In 64 years of running the largest country in the world,
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過去世界最大國的 64 年統治時期
06:12
the range of the Party's policies has been wider
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共產黨的政策涵蓋範圍
06:15
than any other country in recent memory,
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較近期以來任何國家為廣
06:18
from radical land collectivization to the Great Leap Forward,
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先是激進式的土地共有制
大躍進
大躍進
06:22
then privatization of farmland,
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接著是農地私有化
06:25
then the Cultural Revolution,
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再來是文化大革命
06:27
then Deng Xiaoping's market reform,
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鄧小平的市場改革
06:30
then successor Jiang Zemin took the giant political step
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接續了江澤民激烈的、大幅的政治舉措
06:33
of opening up Party membership to private businesspeople,
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從私有企業中招募黨員
06:36
something unimaginable during Mao's rule.
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這與毛澤東時期截然不同
06:39
So the Party self-corrects in rather dramatic fashions.
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一黨制度仍經歷莫大的自我修正
06:43
Institutionally, new rules get enacted
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以制度而言，採取新的政策
06:46
to correct previous dysfunctions.
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以修正過去不佳的功能
06:48
For example, term limits.
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譬如任期制度
06:50
Political leaders used to retain their positions for life,
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原本統治者能終生適任
06:53
and they used that to accumulate power
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因此能累積政治實力
06:54
and perpetuate their rules.
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以無限統治
06:56
Mao was the father of modern China,
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毛澤東為中國現代之父
06:59
yet his prolonged rule led to disastrous mistakes.
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但他的常任導致嚴重後果
07:01
So the Party instituted term limits
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因此共產黨規定任期
07:04
with mandatory retirement age of 68 to 70.
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必須在 68 至 70 歲間退任
07:07
One thing we often hear is,
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我們常聽人說：
07:10
"Political reforms have lagged far behind economic reforms,"
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「政治改革遠較經濟改革慢」
07:13
and "China is in dire need of political reform."
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以及「中國亟需政治改革」
07:16
But this claim is a rhetorical trap
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但這只是個文字遊戲
07:19
hidden behind a political bias.
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隱含著政治偏見
07:22
See, some have decided a priori
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有些人決定了他們所樂見的
07:24
what kinds of changes they want to see,
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改變的先後順序
07:26
and only such changes can be called political reform.
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認為只有這些改變才可稱為政治改革
07:30
The truth is, political reforms have never stopped.
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其實，政治改革從未停息
07:33
Compared with 30 years ago, 20 years, even 10 years ago,
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相較於 30 年前、20 年前，甚至 10 年前
07:36
every aspect of Chinese society,
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中國社會的各種面向
07:38
how the country is governed,
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國家的治理方式
07:39
from the most local level to the highest center,
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從最底層的地方機關
到最高級的中央機構
到最高級的中央機構
07:41
are unrecognizable today.
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早已不復以往
07:44
Now such changes are simply not possible
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如果沒有最根本的政治改革
07:47
without political reforms of the most fundamental kind.
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上述這些改變是不可能發生的
07:51
Now I would venture to suggest the Party
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我想大膽地說，中國共產黨
07:53
is the world's leading expert in political reform.
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是世上政治改革的龍頭
07:57
The second assumption is that in a one-party state,
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第二個假設為，一黨專制國家
08:00
power gets concentrated in the hands of the few,
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權力集中於少數人身上
08:03
and bad governance and corruption follow.
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於是便有了差勁的統治及腐敗的問題
08:05
Indeed, corruption is a big problem,
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的確，腐敗為一大問題
08:08
but let's first look at the larger context.
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但我們先從更巨觀的角度來討論
08:10
Now, this may be counterintuitive to you.
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這可能不同於多數人的想像
08:12
The Party happens to be one of the most meritocratic
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中國共產黨卻是世界上
08:15
political institutions in the world today.
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最能唯才是用的政治團體之一
08:18
China's highest ruling body, the Politburo, has 25 members.
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中國最高統治機關「政治局」有 25 位成員
08:22
In the most recent one, only five of them
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近一任中，僅有 5 位
08:24
came from a background of privilege, so-called princelings.
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來自於特權階級，也就是所謂的太子黨
08:27
The other 20, including the president and the premier,
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其它包含國家主席及總理的 20 位
08:30
came from entirely ordinary backgrounds.
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皆來自於普通階級
08:33
In the larger central committee of 300 or more,
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中央委員會有 300 位以上的成員
08:35
the percentage of those who were born
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出身於上層階級者的
08:37
into power and wealth was even smaller.
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比例甚至更低
08:39
The vast majority of senior Chinese leaders
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中國多數的高級政府官員
08:42
worked and competed their way to the top.
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努力爭取頂尖的位置
08:45
Compare that with the ruling elites
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與其他已開發及開發中國家菁英相較
08:47
in both developed and developing countries,
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與其他已開發及開發中國家菁英相較
08:49
I think you'll find the Party being near the top
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共產黨的社會流動性名列前茅
08:52
in upward mobility.
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共產黨的社會流動性名列前茅
08:54
The question then is, how could that be possible
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問題是一黨專政的政治系統是如何做到的?
08:57
in a system run by one party?
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問題是一黨專政的政治系統是如何做到的?
09:00
Now we come to a powerful political institution,
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我們現在有一強而有力的政治制度
09:03
little-known to Westerners:
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在西方鮮為人知
09:04
the Party's Organization Department.
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為中國共產黨中央組織部
09:07
The department functions like a giant
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功能就像是大型的人力資源引擎
09:09
human resource engine that would be the envy
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功能就像是大型的人力資源引擎
09:12
of even some of the most successful corporations.
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羨煞各大成功的企業
09:15
It operates a rotating pyramid
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運作方式有如一旋轉的金字塔
09:17
made up of three components:
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由三部分組成：
09:19
civil service, state-owned enterprises,
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公務員、國有企業
09:21
and social organizations like a university
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以及社會組織，如大學
09:23
or a community program.
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或社區計畫
09:26
They form separate yet integrated career paths
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三種型態皆是成為官員的途徑
09:28
for Chinese officials.
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三種型態皆是成為官員的途徑
09:30
They recruit college grads into entry-level positions
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招集大學畢業生為初級人員
09:33
in all three tracks, and they start from the bottom,
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三種途徑皆從基層開始
09:36
called "keyuan" [clerk].
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稱為「科員」
09:37
Then they could get promoted
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可以依序升等至
09:39
through four increasingly elite ranks:
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以下四種官位
09:44
fuke [deputy section manager], ke [section manager], fuchu [deputy division manager], and chu [division manger].
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副科長、科長、副處長以及處長
09:47
Now these are not moves from "Karate Kid," okay?
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這可不是辦家家酒的遊戲
09:49
It's serious business.
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而是正經之事
09:53
The range of positions is wide,
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每個職位主掌之事很廣
09:55
from running health care in a village
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舉凡村內健康照護
09:57
to foreign investment in a city district
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城市的外國投資
09:59
to manager in a company.
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以及公司經理
10:01
Once a year, the department reviews their performance.
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組織部每年會記錄他們的表現
10:04
They interview their superiors, their peers,
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與主管、同僚及下屬會談，以評估個人表現
10:06
their subordinates. They vet their personal conduct.
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與主管、同僚及下屬會談，以評估個人表現
10:09
They conduct public opinion surveys.
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並且舉辦大眾意見調查
10:11
Then they promote the winners.
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將勝選者升等
10:13
Throughout their careers, these cadres
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這些幹部的職位
10:14
can move through and out of all three tracks.
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可以於這三種官途內向上攀升
10:18
Over time, the good ones move beyond the four base levels
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一段時間後，表現佳者可從四個基層
10:20
to the fuju [deputy bureau chief] and ju [bureau chief] levels.
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升至正副局長的階層
10:23
There, they enter high officialdom.
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晉升高級官員之列
10:26
By that point, a typical assignment will be
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一般任務則會成為
10:28
to manage a district with a population in the millions
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管理數百萬人的城市
10:31
or a company with hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue.
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或是收益上億的公司
10:35
Just to show you how competitive the system is,
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接著我想讓各位知道競爭多激烈
10:38
in 2012, there were 900,000 fuke and ke levels,
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2012 年時共有 90 萬名正副科長
10:42
600,000 fuchu and chu levels,
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60 萬名正副處長
10:45
and only 40,000 fuju and ju levels.
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卻只有 4 萬名正副局長
10:48
After the ju levels,
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繼局長階層後
10:50
the best few move further up several more ranks,
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表現最佳者可再晉升數層
10:53
and eventually make it to the Central Committee.
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最終進到中央委員會
10:56
The process takes two to three decades.
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過程需要 20 到 30 年
10:59
Does patronage play a role? Yes, of course.
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捐贈對官途有用嗎? 當然
11:02
But merit remains the fundamental driver.
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但最根本的還是績效
11:05
In essence, the Organization Department runs
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就本質而言，組織部的運作
11:08
a modernized version of China's centuries-old
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好比現代版的中國師徒制度
11:10
mentoring system.
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好比現代版的中國師徒制度
11:12
China's new president, Xi Jinping,
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中國新任主席習近平
11:15
is the son of a former leader, which is very unusual,
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非常特別，是前任領導的兒子
11:17
first of his kind to make the top job.
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也是領導人之子成為元首的首例
11:19
Even for him, the career took 30 years.
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即使身分特殊，他也花費了 30 年
11:22
He started as a village manager,
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首先是村長
11:24
and by the time he entered the Politburo,
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當他進入政治局時
11:26
he had managed areas with a total population
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所管轄區的人口達 1.5億 之多
11:28
of 150 million people
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所管轄區的人口達 1.5億 之多
11:30
and combined GDPs of 1.5 trillion U.S. dollars.
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占有 1.5 兆美元的國內生產毛額
11:34
Now, please don't get me wrong, okay?
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請各位別誤會我接下來要說的話
11:37
This is not a put-down of anyone. It's just a statement of fact.
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我沒有要詆毀任何人，而是陳述事實
11:40
George W. Bush, remember him?
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小布希，還記得他嗎？
11:44
This is not a put-down.
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不是詆毀喔
11:46
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
11:47
Before becoming governor of Texas,
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在成為德州州長前
11:50
or Barack Obama before running for president,
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2619
或說歐巴馬競選總統前
11:53
could not make even a small county manager
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沒有資格成為中國系統中的小縣長
11:55
in China's system.
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沒有資格成為中國系統中的小縣長
11:57
Winston Churchill once said that democracy
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邱吉爾曾如此描述民主
11:59
is a terrible system except for all the rest.
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民主是一個很糟糕的體制
但比其他可能的政體為佳
但比其他可能的政體為佳
12:02
Well, apparently he hadn't heard of the Organization Department.
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看來他沒聽過中央組織部吧
12:06
Now, Westerners always assume that
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西方人常認為
12:08
multi-party election with universal suffrage
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多黨普選制
12:11
is the only source of political legitimacy.
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為政治正當性的唯一來源
12:14
I was asked once, "The Party wasn't voted in by election.
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有人問我「既然共產黨非民選」
12:18
Where is the source of legitimacy?"
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「正當性何來？」
12:20
I said, "How about competency?"
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我回答「知人善任的原則呢？」
12:24
We all know the facts.
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答案不證自明
12:25
In 1949, when the Party took power,
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1949年，共產黨掌權
12:27
China was mired in civil wars, dismembered by foreign aggression,
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中國面臨內憂外患
12:30
average life expectancy at that time, 41 years old.
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當時人均壽命為 41 歲
12:35
Today, it's the second largest economy in the world,
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今日卻成為世界第二大的經濟體
12:38
an industrial powerhouse, and its people live
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及工業重鎮，人民也更為富足
12:40
in increasing prosperity.
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及工業重鎮，人民也更為富足
12:42
Pew Research polls Chinese public attitudes,
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皮尤研究中心 (翻註：美國獨立民調中心)
調查了中國人民的看法及感受
調查了中國人民的看法及感受
12:45
and here are the numbers in recent years.
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以下為近年來的調查數據
12:47
Satisfaction with the direction of the country: 85 percent.
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對國家方向的滿意度：85%
12:52
Those who think they're better off than five years ago:
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認為中國較五年前改善
12:54
70 percent.
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70%
12:56
Those who expect the future to be better:
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認為未來會更好
12:59
a whopping 82 percent.
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高達 82%
13:02
Financial Times polls global youth attitudes,
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英國《金融時報》調查了全球青年的想法
13:05
and these numbers, brand new, just came from last week.
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以下為上週剛出爐的統計數字
13:08
Ninety-three percent of China's Generation Y
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93% 的中國 Y 世代年輕人
13:11
are optimistic about their country's future.
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對國家未來感到樂觀
13:14
Now, if this is not legitimacy, I'm not sure what is.
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如果這還不算具正當性
我真不知道什麼叫做正當了
我真不知道什麼叫做正當了
13:20
In contrast, most electoral democracies around the world
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相較之下，全球多數的民主國家
13:23
are suffering from dismal performance.
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表現則更為低落
13:25
I don't need to elaborate for this audience
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我想不需要向各位多加解釋
13:27
how dysfunctional it is, from Washington to European capitals.
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問題有多嚴重，遍布華府及歐洲各首都
13:32
With a few exceptions, the vast number
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有一些例外
13:35
of developing countries that have adopted electoral regimes
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即使許多發展中國家採取了民選制度
13:37
are still suffering from poverty and civil strife.
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仍遭受貧窮及內亂的問題
13:41
Governments get elected, and then they fall
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新上任的民選政府失敗慘重
13:43
below 50 percent approval in a few months
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數月內民眾支持度即降到 50% 以下
13:46
and stay there and get worse until the next election.
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卻持續治國直至下次選舉
13:50
Democracy is becoming a perpetual cycle
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2423
民主成了選舉及後悔交替的
13:52
of elect and regret.
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無限迴圈
13:54
At this rate, I'm afraid it is democracy,
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如此看來
13:58
not China's one-party system, that is in danger
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恐怕面臨正當性危機的是民主制
14:00
of losing legitimacy.
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而非中國的一黨制
14:03
Now, I don't want to create the misimpression
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希望大家不要誤會
14:06
that China's hunky-dory, on the way
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2008
以為中國正穩扎穩打地
14:08
to some kind of superpowerdom.
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邁向超級強權
14:09
The country faces enormous challenges.
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中國也遇到莫大的挑戰
14:12
The social and economic problems that come
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各種社經問題
14:14
with wrenching change like this are mind-boggling.
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伴隨著難以想像的困境
14:18
Pollution is one. Food safety. Population issues.
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像汙染、食品安全、人口問題等
14:22
On the political front, the worst problem is corruption.
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就政治而言，最大的問題為貪汙腐敗
14:26
Corruption is widespread and undermines the system
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貪腐的狀況普遍存在，降低制度的效能
14:29
and its moral legitimacy.
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及道德正當性
14:30
But most analysts misdiagnose the disease.
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2847
但許多分析家誤判情勢
14:33
They say that corruption is the result of the one-party system,
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2909
認為貪污為一黨政治的結果
14:36
and therefore, in order to cure it,
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因此若要解決問題
14:38
you have to do away with the entire system.
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則必須革除整個體制
14:40
But a more careful look would tell us otherwise.
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但仔細觀察便會發現事實並非如此
14:43
Transparency International ranks China
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中國透明度的國際排名
14:46
between 70 and 80 in recent years among 170 countries,
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近期來在 170 個國家中為第 70 到 80 名
14:49
and it's been moving up.
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且持續向上
14:52
India, the largest democracy in the world,
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2063
印度為世界上最大的民主國家
14:54
94 and dropping.
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排名 94 且仍不斷下滑
14:56
For the hundred or so countries that are ranked below China,
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排在中國之後的百餘個國家
14:58
more than half of them are electoral democracies.
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超過半數為民選的民主國家
15:01
So if election is the panacea for corruption,
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所以說如果民主為貪腐的萬靈丹
15:05
how come these countries can't fix it?
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為何這些國家無法解決貪腐問題呢?
15:08
Now, I'm a venture capitalist. I make bets.
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我是風險資本家，我要下賭注
15:11
It wouldn't be fair to end this talk without
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為公平起見，這場演講結束前
15:14
putting myself on the line and making some predictions.
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我也要親自參與並做出預測
15:16
So here they are.
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如以下
15:18
In the next 10 years, China will surpass the U.S.
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10 年之內，中國將超越美國
15:21
and become the largest economy in the world.
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2377
成為世界上最大的經濟體
15:23
Income per capita will be near the top
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2081
人均收入
15:25
of all developing countries.
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2182
將於發展中國家名列前茅
15:28
Corruption will be curbed, but not eliminated,
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貪腐將減緩，但未完全革除
15:30
and China will move up 10 to 20 notches
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2413
中國排名將進步 10 到 20 名
15:32
to above 60 in T.I. ranking.
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進入國際透明度排行 60 名以內
15:35
Economic reform will accelerate, political reform will continue,
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經改將加速，政改也持續進行
15:38
and the one-party system will hold firm.
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一黨政治將屹立不搖
15:42
We live in the dusk of an era.
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3158
這時代已邁入黃昏
15:45
Meta-narratives that make universal claims
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後設敘述的普世性假設
15:48
failed us in the 20th century
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1961
在 20 世紀已失效
15:50
and are failing us in the 21st.
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在 21 世紀也不會成功
15:53
Meta-narrative is the cancer
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2594
後設敘述是個致命毒瘤
15:55
that is killing democracy from the inside.
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從民主國家體內中擴散
15:58
Now, I want to clarify something.
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我想先澄清
16:00
I'm not here to make an indictment of democracy.
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我不是要在此抨擊民主制
16:02
On the contrary, I think democracy contributed
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我其實認為民主貢獻良多
16:05
to the rise of the West and the creation of the modern world.
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使西方得以崛起，也塑造了現代社會
16:08
It is the universal claim that many Western elites
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反而，是許多西方國家的菁英
16:11
are making about their political system, the hubris,
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對其政治系統的
普世性宣揚與傲慢
普世性宣揚與傲慢
16:15
that is at the heart of the West's current ills.
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才是西方近期各種積弊的成因
16:18
If they would spend just a little less time
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如果他們能少花點精力
16:20
on trying to force their way onto others,
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以同樣的價值要求他國並進
16:23
and a little bit more on political reform at home,
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多用點精力進行內部政治改革
16:26
they might give their democracy a better chance.
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或許民主制能有更好的表現
16:30
China's political model will never supplant
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中國的政治型態無法替代
16:32
electoral democracy, because unlike the latter,
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也不像民選的民主制
16:34
it doesn't pretend to be universal.
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假裝適用全世界
16:36
It cannot be exported. But that is the point precisely.
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它無法被複製輸出
這就是重點所在
這就是重點所在
16:40
The significance of China's example
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中國例子的重要之處
16:43
is not that it provides an alternative,
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不在於提供他國備案
16:45
but the demonstration that alternatives exist.
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而是顯現出有其他可能
16:49
Let us draw to a close this era of meta-narratives.
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讓我們來結束後設敘事的時代
16:53
Communism and democracy may both be laudable ideals,
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共產主義及民主主義
也許皆為值得讚許的理想
也許皆為值得讚許的理想
16:56
but the era of their dogmatic universalism is over.
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但教條式的普遍主義時代已經結束
17:00
Let us stop telling people and our children
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我們別再告訴人們與後代
17:03
there's only one way to govern ourselves
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治理的方式只有一種
17:05
and a singular future towards which
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或是所有社會終將進到同樣的階段
17:07
all societies must evolve.
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或是所有社會終將進到同樣的階段
17:09
It is wrong. It is irresponsible.
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那是錯誤且不負責的說法
17:12
And worst of all, it is boring.
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更糟的是，還很無趣
17:16
Let universality make way for plurality.
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讓世界接受多樣性
17:20
Perhaps a more interesting age is upon us.
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或許我們將進入更有趣的時代
17:23
Are we brave enough to welcome it?
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我們有勇氣接受嗎?
17:25
Thank you.
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謝謝大家
17:27
(Applause)
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(鼓掌)
17:43
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thanks.
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謝謝
17:46
Bruno Giussani: Eric, stay with me for a couple of minutes,
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布魯諾‧吉薩尼：請留步
17:49
because I want to ask you a couple of questions.
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我有些問題想請教
17:51
I think many here, and in general in Western countries,
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相信在場及世界上多數西方人
17:55
would agree with your statement about analysis
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同意你所分析的
17:58
of democratic systems becoming dysfunctional,
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民主制失調的問題
18:01
but at the same time, many would kind of find
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但同時，有也不少人認為
18:04
unsettling the thought that there is an unelected
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懷疑非民選制度
18:08
authority that, without any form of oversight or consultation,
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缺乏監督及諮詢機制
18:13
decides what the national interest is.
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為國家謀福祉
18:16
What is the mechanism in the Chinese model
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究竟是什麼樣的中國模式機制
18:19
that allows people to say, actually,
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可以讓人民確切地指出
18:21
the national interest as you defined it is wrong?
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你所定義的「國家利益」是有誤的？
18:24
EXL: You know, Frank Fukuyama, the political scientist,
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李：政治學家弗蘭克·福山
18:28
called the Chinese system "responsive authoritarianism."
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將中國體制稱為「反應式威權主義」
18:32
It's not exactly right, but I think it comes close.
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或許不夠精準，但大致方向正確
18:35
So I know the largest public opinion survey company
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中國最大規模的
18:39
in China, okay?
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民調公司
18:41
Do you know who their biggest client is?
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你知道最大客戶是誰呢?
18:43
The Chinese government.
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中國政府
18:45
Not just from the central government,
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不僅是中央政府
18:48
the city government, the provincial government,
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地方、省級政府
18:49
to the most local neighborhood districts.
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以及各區的村鎮機構
18:51
They conduct surveys all the time.
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皆不斷進行意見調查
18:53
Are you happy with the garbage collection?
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你對收垃圾方式滿意嗎?
18:56
Are you happy with the general direction of the country?
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你對國家方針大致滿意嗎?
18:58
So there is, in China, there is a different kind of mechanism
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因此中國有不一樣的機制
19:01
to be responsive to the demands and the thinking of the people.
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能回應人民的需求及想法
19:05
My point is, I think we should get unstuck
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我的意思是，我們應該不應一味認為
19:08
from the thinking that there's only one political system --
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政治系統只有一種：
19:11
election, election, election --
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選舉、選舉、還是選舉
19:12
that could make it responsive.
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才是唯一有效的方式
19:14
I'm not sure, actually, elections produce
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我其實不確定，在這個世界上
19:16
responsive government anymore in the world.
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選舉是否還能產生負責的政府
19:19
(Applause)
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(鼓掌)
19:23
BG: Many seem to agree.
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布魯諾：許多人同意
19:25
One of the features of a democratic system
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民主制度的一大特色
19:27
is a space for civil society to express itself.
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在於公民自由表達的權利
19:31
And you have shown figures about the support
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你也讓我們看過了
19:33
that the government and the authorities have in China.
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中國政府支持率
19:36
But then you've just mentioned other elements
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但也提到其他事項
19:39
like, you know, big challenges, and there are, of course,
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如巨大的挑戰
19:41
a lot of other data that go in a different direction:
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及其他方向的數據：
19:44
tens of thousands of unrests and protests
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上萬件的騷動及抗議事件
19:47
and environmental protests, etc.
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環保抗爭等等
19:50
So you seem to suggest the Chinese model
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因此，你似乎認為中國模式
19:53
doesn't have a space outside of the Party
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在共產黨外並沒有
19:55
for civil society to express itself.
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公民社會的自我表達空間
19:57
EXL: There's a vibrant civil society in China,
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李：中國有活躍的公民社會
20:01
whether it's environment or what-have-you.
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無論是有關環境或其他
20:03
But it's different. You wouldn't recognize it.
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但它不一樣，你可能無法輕易辨識
20:05
Because, by Western definitions, a so-called civil society
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因為西方定義中的公民社會
20:08
has to be separate or even in opposition
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必須活躍於政治制度之外
20:11
to the political system,
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或者甚至反對體制
20:13
but that concept is alien for Chinese culture.
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但這種概念對中國文化很陌生
20:17
For thousands of years, you have civil society,
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數千年來公民社會皆存在
20:20
yet they are consistent and coherent
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但自始至終與政治秩序共存
20:22
and part of a political order, and I think
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實為其一部分
20:25
it's a big cultural difference.
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我想這就是一大文化差異
20:29
BG: Eric, thank you for sharing this with TED.
EXL: Thank you.
EXL: Thank you.
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布魯諾：謝謝你在 TED 的分享
李：謝謝
李：謝謝
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Eric X. Li - Investor and political scientistA venture capitalist and political scientist, Eric X Li argues that the universality claim of Western democratic systems is going to be "morally challenged" by China.
Why you should listen
A well-connected venture capitalist in Shanghai, where he was born, Eric X. Li studied in America (and even worked for Ross Perot's 1992 presidential campaign) before returning home, where he started doubting the idea that China's progress could only follow the path of the West's free-market principles.
In a much-discussed op-ed he wrote for the New York Times in February 2012 and in other writings, he has put forth the idea that China needed a different development framework, around a different idea of modernity. The Chinese system, he says, is meritocratic, highly adaptable despite the one-party rule, long term-oriented, pragmatic and non-individualistic. As he writes: "The Chinese political system ... comes close to the best formula for governing a large country: meritocracy at the top, democracy at the bottom, with room for experimentation in between.
While some criticize him as a cheerleader of the Chinese government and a champion of Chinese exceptionalism, Li is comfortable in the role of provocateur. He is the founder of Chengwei Capital in Shanghai, serves on the board of directors of China Europe International Business School (CEIBS) and is a Fellow of the Aspen Institute.
Eric X. Li | Speaker | TED.com