TED2014
Randall Munroe: Comics that ask "what if?"
朗多.门罗: 由漫画引出的假设
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网页漫画家兰德尔．门罗常运用数理、逻辑和冷面幽默来回答一些简单的假设性问题（例如：假设你击中一颗速度高达光速的棒球将会发生什么事？）在他引人入胜的演说中分享了一位读者提出的谷歌数据库问题，引发门罗从迂回的逻辑路径思考出令人捧腹大笑且过于细节的答案——别错过，你或许会有所收获。
Randall Munroe - Cartoonist
Randall Munroe sketches elegant and illuminating explanations of the weird science and math questions that keep geeks awake at night. Full bio
Randall Munroe sketches elegant and illuminating explanations of the weird science and math questions that keep geeks awake at night. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
So, I have a feature on my website where every week
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我的网站有个功能
00:15
people submit hypothetical questions
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每周人们提出他们的假设问题
00:17
for me to answer,
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让我解答
00:18
and I try to answer them using math, science
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我试图用数学 科学还有
00:21
and comics.
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漫画方式来回答这些问题
00:22
So for example, one person asked,
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比如 有人问道
00:25
what would happen if you tried to hit a baseball
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如果你试着击打一个
00:26
pitched at 90 percent of the speed of light?
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以90%的光速投出的棒球会怎么样？
于是我做了一些计算
00:29
So I did some calculations.
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00:32
Now, normally, when an object flies through the air,
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通常来说 当一个物体在空中飞过
00:34
the air will flow around the object,
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空气会环绕在物体周围
00:36
but in this case, the ball would be going so fast
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但在这个例子里 球飞得太快了
00:37
that the air molecules wouldn't have time
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所以空气分子来不及
00:39
to move out of the way.
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避开物体
00:41
The ball would smash right into and through them,
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球体会直接撞击并穿过它们
00:44
and the collisions with these air molecules
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和空气分子的这种相撞
00:45
would knock away the nitrogen,
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会将球体上的氮原子
00:47
carbon and hydrogen from the ball,
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碳原子和氢原子击走
00:49
fragmenting it off into tiny particles,
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把棒球变成极小的粒子
00:51
and also triggering waves of thermonuclear fusion
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而且会激发球体周围空气
00:53
in the air around it.
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发生热核聚变波
00:55
This would result in a flood of x-rays
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那会导致大量X射线
00:57
that would spread out in a bubble
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随着外来粒子
00:59
along with exotic particles,
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变成一个气泡扩散开
01:00
plasma inside, centered on the pitcher's mound,
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里面是等离子体 聚集在投手区
01:03
and that would move away from the pitcher's mound
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这些射线将会以比球还稍微快的速度
01:07
slightly faster than the ball.
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远离投手区
01:09
Now at this point, about 30 nanoseconds in,
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这些事大约发生在30纳秒
01:12
the home plate is far enough away
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本垒就离得太远
01:14
that light hasn't had time to reach it,
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光还没有来得及接触它
01:16
which means the batter
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这就意味着棒球击手
01:17
still sees the pitcher about to throw
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仍然看见投球手准备抛球
01:20
and has no idea that anything is wrong.
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还不知道事情很不对劲
01:22
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
01:24
Now, after 70 nanoseconds,
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现在 在70纳秒以后
01:27
the ball will reach home plate,
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球会达到本垒
01:28
or at least the cloud of expanding plasma
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或至少是
01:31
that used to be the ball,
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曾经是球的等离子体
01:33
and it will engulf the bat and the batter
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会把球棒 棒球击手
01:37
and the plate and the catcher and the umpire
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本垒 捕球手以及裁判吞没
01:40
and start disintegrating them all
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然后他们开始全部分解
01:43
as it also starts to carry them backward
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同时球会承载着这些分解物
01:46
through the backstop, which
also starts to disintegrate.
also starts to disintegrate.
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穿过挡球网 它同时也在开始分解
01:50
So if you were watching this whole thing
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那么当你从山坡上
01:51
from a hill,
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观看这整个过程时
01:53
ideally, far away,
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最好是离得远远的
01:56
what you'd see is a bright flash of light
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你会看见一道明亮的闪光
01:57
that would fade over a few seconds,
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几秒钟钟后消失了
01:59
followed by a blast wave spreading out,
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接着是一片冲击波扩散出来
02:01
shredding trees and houses
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粉碎了树木和房屋
02:04
as it moves away from the stadium,
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当它从球场离开的时候
02:06
and then eventually a mushroom cloud
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最终是一片蘑菇云
02:09
rising up over the ruined city. (Laughter)
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在一片毁坏的城市上空升起（笑声）
02:12
So the Major League Baseball rules
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所以 棒球联盟的规则
02:13
are a little bit hazy,
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有点儿模糊
02:16
but — (Laughter) — under rule 6.02 and 5.09,
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但是针对规则6.02 和5.09
02:20
I think that in this situation,
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我认为在这个情形下
02:22
the batter would be considered hit by pitch
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棒球击手会认为是被投球手击中了
02:25
and would be eligible to take first base,
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会有资格上一垒
02:27
if it still existed.
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如果它依然存在的话
02:30
So this is the kind of question I answer,
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这就是我常回答的问题
02:32
and I get people writing in with
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我收到了大家留下的
02:34
a lot of other strange questions.
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很多稀奇古怪的问题
02:36
I've had someone write and say,
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有某人问我
02:39
scientifically speaking, what is the best
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从科学角度 隐藏一具尸体
02:41
and fastest way to hide a body?
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最佳最快办法是什么？
02:43
Can you do this one soon?
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你能快点解答这个问题吗？
02:45
And I had someone write in,
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还有人写道
02:47
I've had people write in about,
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以前也有人这样问
02:49
can you prove whether or not you can find love again
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你能否能证明心碎以后
02:51
after your heart's broken?
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还能再次找到爱情？
02:53
And I've had people send in
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我还有人发信问
02:54
what are clearly homework questions
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很明显是家庭作业的问题
02:56
they're trying to get me to do for them.
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他们希望我能帮忙
03:00
But one week, a couple months ago,
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但几个月以前的某一周
03:03
I got a question that was actually about Google.
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我收到一个关于谷歌的问题
03:06
If all digital data in the world
were stored on punch cards,
were stored on punch cards,
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如果世界上所有的电子数据都储存在打孔卡上
03:09
how big would Google's data warehouse be?
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那么谷歌的仓库会有多大？
03:12
Now, Google's pretty secretive
about their operations,
about their operations,
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现在 谷歌对他们的运营十分保密
03:15
so no one really knows how much data Google has,
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所以没人知道谷歌到底有多少数据
03:18
and in fact, no one really knows
how many data centers Google has,
how many data centers Google has,
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实际上 没人真正知道谷歌有多少数据中心
03:20
except people at Google itself.
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除了谷歌自己的人以外
03:23
And I've tried, I've met them a few times,
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我也试图弄清楚 我跟他们碰过几次头
03:24
tried asking them, and they
aren't revealing anything.
aren't revealing anything.
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想问他们 他们却不透露任何消息
03:29
So I decided to try to figure this out myself.
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于是我决定自己来搞清楚
03:32
There are a few things that I looked at here.
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我注意到几件事
03:34
I started with money.
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我先从资金开始
03:36
Google has to reveal how much they spend,
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谷歌透露了他们的总支出
03:38
in general, and that lets you put some caps
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那就可以估计
03:40
on how many data centers could they be building,
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他们可以建立多少个数据中心
03:44
because a big data center costs
a certain amount of money.
a certain amount of money.
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因为大的中心需要一定数额的预算
03:46
And you can also then put a cap on
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你也可以在他们
03:49
how much of the world hard
drive market are they taking up,
drive market are they taking up,
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占世界硬件市场得份额上押宝
03:51
which turns out, it's pretty sizable.
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结果是份额相当大
03:53
I read a calculation at one point,
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我曾看到过一个估算
03:55
I think Google has a drive failure
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我认为谷歌大约每一两分
03:56
about every minute or two,
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有一个驱动器失败
04:00
and they just throw out the hard drive
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而且他们只是把硬盘驱动丢掉
04:01
and swap in a new one.
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更换一个新的
04:02
So they go through a huge number of them.
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所以他们消耗了大量硬盘驱动器
04:05
And so by looking at money,
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因此通过支出
04:06
you can get an idea of how
many of these centers they have.
many of these centers they have.
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你可以得知他们到底有多少个中心
04:08
You can also look at power.
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你也可以观察用电量
04:10
You can look at how much electricity they need,
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看他们需要用多少电
04:14
because you need a certain amount
of electricity to run the servers,
of electricity to run the servers,
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因为需要一定的电力来维持服务器
04:16
and Google is more efficient than most,
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当然谷歌比大部分的公司更有效率
04:18
but they still have some basic requirements,
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他们还是有基本的需求量
04:21
and that lets you put a limit
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那可以让你得知他们
04:23
on the number of servers that they have.
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服务器数量的底线
04:25
You can also look at square footage and see
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你还可以看已知的
04:29
of the data centers that you know,
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数据中心面积
04:31
how big are they?
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有多大？
04:32
How much room is that?
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有多少房间？
04:33
How many server racks could you fit in there?
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里面可以放多少个服务器？
04:35
And for some data centers,
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对于一些数据中心
04:37
you might get two of these pieces of information.
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你也许可以得到这些信息中的两个
04:39
You know how much they spent,
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你知道他们的开销
04:41
and they also, say, because they had to contract
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同样 因为他们必须同
04:43
with the local government
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所在地的政府签约
04:44
to get the power provided,
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来得到能源供应
04:46
you might know what they made a deal to buy,
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你会知道他们交易的内容
04:49
so you know how much power it takes.
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从而得知消耗了多少能源
04:50
Then you can look at the ratios of those numbers,
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你可以查看这些数字的比值
04:53
and figure out for a data center
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然后计算一个
04:54
where you don't have that information,
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没有这些信息的数据中心
04:56
you can figure out,
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你可以弄清楚
04:57
but maybe you only have one of those,
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也许你只有这些条件中的一个
04:59
you know the square footage,
then you could figure out
then you could figure out
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你知道面积 那么你就可以推出
05:01
well, maybe the power is proportional.
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电力也许是按比例的
05:03
And you can do this same thing
with a lot of different quantities,
with a lot of different quantities,
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你可以用不同的数据进行同样的运算
05:05
you know, with guesses about
the total amount of storage,
the total amount of storage,
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通过总储存库数量
05:08
the number of servers, the
number of drives per server,
number of drives per server,
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服务器的数量 每个服务器所需要的驱动器数量
05:10
and in each case using what you know
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在每一项上用已知数据
05:13
to come up with a model that narrows down
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建出一个模型
05:16
your guesses for the things that you don't know.
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缩小对未知对象的猜测范围
05:18
It's sort of circling around the
number you're trying to get.
number you're trying to get.
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有些像在你想得知的数据中循环
05:20
And this is a lot of fun.
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十分有趣
05:23
The math is not all that advanced,
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这个数学计算并不很高级
05:25
and really it's like nothing more than
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是真的不比
05:28
solving a sudoku puzzle.
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解决数独更难
05:30
So what I did, I went through all of this information,
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我所做的 就是用了所有这些信息
05:35
spent a day or two researching.
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花了一两天的时间来调查
05:37
And there are some things I didn't look at.
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有一些事情我未曾注意
05:39
You could always look at the Google
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你可以上谷歌
05:42
recruitment messages that they post.
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看他们贴出的招人信息
05:44
That gives you an idea of where they have people.
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你可以得知他们从何处发掘人才
05:46
Sometimes, when people visit a data center,
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有时当人们去访问数据中心
05:47
they'll take a cell-cam photo and post it,
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他们会用手机拍照 然后贴出来
05:49
and they aren't supposed to,
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虽然他们不该这么做
05:51
but you can learn things about
their hardware that way.
their hardware that way.
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但是你可以由此了解硬件情况
05:54
And in fact, you can just
look at pizza delivery drivers.
look at pizza delivery drivers.
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事实上 你还可以留意送皮萨的送餐员
05:56
Turns out, they know where all
the Google data centers are,
the Google data centers are,
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他们其实知道谷歌所有数据中心的位置
05:59
at least the ones that have people in them.
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至少是有人工作的数据中心
06:02
But I came up with my estimate,
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但是我有一个让我感觉
06:04
which I felt pretty good about,
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不错的估测
06:06
that was about 10 exabytes of data
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就是覆盖整个谷歌的操作系统的
06:09
across all of Google's operations,
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差不多10EB的数据量
06:11
and then another maybe five exabytes or so
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另外还有5EB的离线数据
06:15
of offline storage in tape drives,
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保存在磁带驱动器里
06:17
which it turns out Google is
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这印证了谷歌是
06:18
about the world's largest consumer of.
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世界上最大的消费者
06:21
So I came up with this estimate, and this is
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我推断出来的这个估测
06:25
a staggering amount of data.
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这是惊人的数据量
06:26
It's quite a bit more than any other organization
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这比世界上任何其它的机构
06:29
in the world has, as far as we know.
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都大得多 据我们目前所知的。
06:30
There's a couple of other contenders,
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同时有几个竞争对手
06:32
especially everyone always thinks of the NSA.
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尤其是众所周知的美国国家安全局
06:35
But using some of these same methods,
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用同样一些方法
06:36
we can look at the NSA's data centers,
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我们可以观察安全局的数据中心
06:38
and figure out, you know, we
don't know what's going on there,
don't know what's going on there,
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虽然我们我们不清楚哪里的情况
06:40
but it's pretty clear that their operation
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但很清楚他们的操作系统
06:43
is not the size of Google's.
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谷歌的大小不同
06:44
Adding all of this up, I came up with
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统计起来我想出了
06:46
the other thing that we can answer, which is,
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另一个我们可以回答的问题
06:48
how many punch cards would this take?
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这些需要多少打孔卡？
06:50
And so a punch card can hold
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一个打孔卡大约能写下
06:53
about 80 characters,
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80个字母
06:55
and you can fit about 2,000 or so cards into a box,
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一个盒子大约可以装下2000张卡片
06:58
and you put them in, say,
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然后你把它们放到 比如
07:00
my home region of New England,
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我的家乡新英格兰
07:02
it would cover the entire region
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大概会以将近
07:04
up to a depth of a little less than five kilometers,
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5千米的深度覆盖整个地区
07:08
which is about three times deeper
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这大约是上一个冰河时期
07:09
than the glaciers during the last ice age
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冰川厚度的三倍
07:11
about 20,000 years ago.
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那大约是两万年前
07:14
So this is impractical, but I think
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这并不切实际 但是我想
07:16
that's about the best answer I could come up with.
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这是我能推断出来的最好的答案
07:19
And I posted it on my website. I wrote it up.
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于是我把它在网站上贴了出来
07:21
And I didn't expect to get an answer from Google,
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我并没有期望得到谷歌回应
07:25
because of course they've been so secretive,
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因为他们那么神秘
07:26
they didn't answer of my questions,
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他们不会回答我的任何问题
07:28
and so I just put it up and said,
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所以我只是贴出来顺便说
07:29
well, I guess we'll never know.
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我猜我们永远不会知道
07:31
But then a little while later
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但是过了一阵
07:33
I got a message, a couple weeks later, from Google,
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几星期以后 我从谷歌得到一个信息
07:35
saying, hey, someone here has an envelope for you.
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嗨 这儿有一封给你的信
07:39
So I go and get it, open it up,
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我拿到后打开一看
07:42
and it's punch cards. (Laughter)
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是打孔卡（笑声）
07:44
Google-branded punch cards.
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谷歌出产的打孔卡
07:47
And on these punch cards,
there are a bunch of holes,
there are a bunch of holes,
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在这个打孔卡上有很多孔
07:50
and I said, thank you, thank you,
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我说 谢谢 谢谢啊
07:52
okay, so what's on here?
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后来怎么样了呢？
07:53
So I get some software and start reading it,
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我用软件开始阅读打孔卡
07:55
and scan them, and it turns out
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并且扫描他们 结果
07:57
it's a puzzle.
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这是一个谜语
07:58
There's a bunch of code,
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有一堆密码
08:00
and I get some friends to help,
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我得到一些朋友的帮助
08:01
and we crack the code, and then
inside that is another code,
inside that is another code,
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我们解破了密码 而里面是另一个密码
08:04
and then there are some equations,
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有一些方程
08:05
and then we solve those equations,
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然后我们解决了这些方程
08:06
and then finally out pops a message from Google
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最后显出了从谷歌发来的信息
08:10
which is their official answer to my article,
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是他们对我文章的官方回复：
08:13
and it said, "No comment."
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“不予评置“
08:15
(Laughter) (Applause)
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（笑声）（鼓掌）
08:26
And I love calculating these kinds of things,
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我喜欢计算这类奇怪的东西
08:29
and it's not that I love doing the math.
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并不是因为我就喜欢做数学
08:31
I do a lot of math,
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我做很多演算
08:32
but I don't really like math for its own sake.
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但我不因为数学和喜欢数学
08:35
What I love is that it lets you take
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我喜欢的是它让你利用
08:37
some things that you know,
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一些已知的东西
08:39
and just by moving symbols
around on a piece of paper,
around on a piece of paper,
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只是在纸上将一些符号移来移去
08:43
find out something that you didn't know
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就可以发现一些未知的东西
08:45
that's very surprising.
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这令人惊奇
08:47
And I have a lot of stupid questions,
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我有很多愚蠢的问题
08:49
and I love that math gives the power
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我喜欢数学给予了
08:51
to answer them sometimes.
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我能解决它们的力量
08:54
And sometimes not.
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但有时行不通
08:55
This is a question I got from a reader,
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这是我从一个读者那里得到的一个问题
08:58
an anonymous reader,
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一个匿名的读者
08:59
and the subject line just said, "Urgent,"
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主题只是写了“紧急”
09:01
and this was the entire email:
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邮件内容如下：
09:03
"If people had wheels and could fly,
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“如果人们有轮子而且能够飞
09:06
how would we differentiate them from airplanes?"
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我们怎样把他们和飞机区分开来？”
09:09
Urgent. (Laughter)
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紧急（笑声）
09:11
And I think there are some questions
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我认为有些问题
09:15
that math just cannot answer.
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是数学不能回答的
09:17
Thank you.
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谢谢
09:20
(Applause)
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（鼓掌）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Randall Munroe - CartoonistRandall Munroe sketches elegant and illuminating explanations of the weird science and math questions that keep geeks awake at night.
Why you should listen
One of a small group of professional web cartoonists, math obsessive and chronic explainer Randall Munroe dazzles the online world (and racks up millions of monthly page views) with the meaninglessly-named (and occasionally heartbreaking) webcomic xkcd.
Munroe’s blog What If? specializes in cunning answers to, as the Atlantic put it, "the kinds of of wonderful and fanciful hypotheticals that might arise when the nerdily inclined get together in bars," like “How fast can you hit a speed bump while driving and live?” or “What would happen if a hair dryer with continuous power was turned on and put in an airtight 1x1x1 meter box?” As he told Math Horizons, I really enjoy solving these kinds of things, and it’s a bonus if I realize that I can put boxes around it and make it a comic."
He is also the author of the book Thing Explainer: Complicated Stuff in Simple Words.
Randall Munroe | Speaker | TED.com