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Alice Bows-Larkin: Climate change is happening. Here's how we adapt
爱丽丝 波斯-拉金: 如何应对气候变化
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想象一下你经历过的最热的一天。再给那一天加上6℃，10℃或是12℃。气候研究学者爱丽丝 波斯-拉金告诉我们如果现在不大幅减少温室气体的排放，这就是我们将面对的未来。她表示现在正是我们做出改变的时候——改变整个系统——认真考虑牺牲经济发展来换取气候稳定。
Alice Bows-Larkin - Climate scholar
Climate researcher Alice Bows-Larkin connects her academic research to the broader policy context, helping create policies to deal with our changing planet. Full bio
Climate researcher Alice Bows-Larkin connects her academic research to the broader policy context, helping create policies to deal with our changing planet. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Over our lifetimes,
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在我们的一生中，
我们每个人的行为都影响了气候变化。
00:14
we've all contributed to climate change.
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00:17
Actions, choices and behaviors
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我们的日常行为和选择
都会导致温室气体排放的增加。
00:21
will have led to an increase
in greenhouse gas emissions.
in greenhouse gas emissions.
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00:26
And I think that that's
quite a powerful thought.
quite a powerful thought.
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我认为这种想法很有道理。
但它的确有可能让我们感到内疚，
00:29
But it does have the potential
to make us feel guilty
to make us feel guilty
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想一想我们做过的关于去哪里
00:32
when we think about decisions
we might have made
we might have made
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旅行的决定，
00:35
around where to travel to,
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旅行的频率以及方式。
00:37
how often and how,
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00:40
about the energy that we choose to use
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关于我们选择在家里或者办公室里
使用什么能源，
00:43
in our homes or in our workplaces,
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00:46
or quite simply the lifestyles
that we lead and enjoy.
that we lead and enjoy.
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或仅仅只是我们所倡导和享受的生活方式。
00:51
But we can also turn
that thought on its head,
that thought on its head,
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但我们也可以从全新的角度来
看待这一想法，
看待这一想法，
也就是说，我们已经对气候产生了
00:55
and think that if we've had
such a profound
such a profound
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极其深刻且负面的影响，
00:57
but a negative impact
on our climate already,
on our climate already,
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01:01
then we have an opportunity to influence
the amount of future climate change
the amount of future climate change
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那么我们就有机会去
影响未来的气候变化，
影响未来的气候变化，
而我们也必须能够适应这种变化。
01:06
that we will need to adapt to.
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01:09
So we have a choice.
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所以我们面临一个选择。
我们可以选择开始认真对待气候变化，
01:10
We can either choose to start
to take climate change seriously,
to take climate change seriously,
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大幅减少温室气体排放量，
01:15
and significantly cut and mitigate
our greenhouse gas emissions,
our greenhouse gas emissions,
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以减少未来气候变化带来的影响。
01:19
and then we will have to adapt to less
of the climate change impacts in future.
of the climate change impacts in future.
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01:25
Alternatively, we can continue to really
ignore the climate change problem.
ignore the climate change problem.
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或者我们也可以继续忽略气候变化问题，
01:30
But if we do that, we are also choosing
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但如果这样做，我们同时也就选择了
在未来去适应更强的气候变化。
01:33
to adapt to very much more powerful
climate impacts in future.
climate impacts in future.
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01:38
And not only that.
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不仅如此，
作为生活在高人均排放国家的居民，
01:39
As people who live in countries
with high per capita emissions,
with high per capita emissions,
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我们也在代表其他地区的人民做出选择。
01:42
we're making that choice
on behalf of others as well.
on behalf of others as well.
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01:47
But the choice that we don't have
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但我们无法选择的是，
一个没有气候变化的未来。
01:49
is a no climate change future.
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01:53
Over the last two decades,
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在过去的20年里，
我们的政府谈判代表和政策制定者一起
01:55
our government negotiators
and policymakers have been coming together
and policymakers have been coming together
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讨论了气候变化的问题，
01:59
to discuss climate change,
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02:01
and they've been focused on
avoiding a two-degree centigrade warming
avoiding a two-degree centigrade warming
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他们聚焦在避免高于前工业化水平
2℃的升温。
02:05
above pre-industrial levels.
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02:08
That's the temperature that's associated
with dangerous impacts
with dangerous impacts
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这一温度在一系列不同指标上
对人类，对环境，
02:12
across a range of different indicators,
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02:15
to humans and to the environment.
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都有着危险的影响。
所以这2℃与危险的气候变化紧密相关。
02:17
So two degrees centigrade
constitutes dangerous climate change.
constitutes dangerous climate change.
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02:22
But dangerous climate change
can be subjective.
can be subjective.
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但危险的气候变化也可以很主观。
02:24
So if we think about
an extreme weather event
an extreme weather event
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试想一个极端天气事件，
发生在世界的某个地方。
02:27
that might happen
in some part of the world,
in some part of the world,
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02:29
and if that happens in a part of the world
where there is good infrastructure,
where there is good infrastructure,
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如果这个地方有着良好的基础设施，
当地的人们都有着很好的保障等等，
02:33
where there are people
that are well-insured and so on,
that are well-insured and so on,
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02:36
then that impact can be disruptive.
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那这影响可能会是破坏性的。
它可能会产生不必要的麻烦和经济损失，
02:40
It can cause upset, it could cause cost.
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甚至可能会导致一些人死亡。
02:43
It could even cause some deaths.
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02:45
But if that exact same weather event
happens in a part of the world
happens in a part of the world
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但是如果同样的天气事件
发生在世界上的某地，
发生在世界上的某地，
那里的基础设施很糟糕，
02:49
where there is poor infrastructure,
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或者人民的生命财产
没有很好的保障，
没有很好的保障，
02:51
or where people are not well-insured,
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或者他们没有很好的社会支持网络，
02:53
or they're not having
good support networks,
good support networks,
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那同样的气候变化可能会
带来毁灭性的影响。
带来毁灭性的影响。
02:55
then that same climate change impact
could be devastating.
could be devastating.
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03:00
It could cause a significant loss of home,
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它可能会导致大量人流离失所，
也可能会导致大量人员的死亡。
03:03
but it could also cause
significant amounts of death.
significant amounts of death.
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03:07
So this is a graph of the CO2 emissions
at the left-hand side
at the left-hand side
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这幅图左侧是由化石燃料和工业生产
产生的二氧化碳排放量，
03:11
from fossil fuel and industry,
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时间段是从工业革命前
03:13
and time from before
the Industrial Revolution
the Industrial Revolution
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直到现在。
03:16
out towards the present day.
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03:18
And what's immediately striking about this
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值得注意的是，
排放量在以指数级增长。
03:21
is that emissions
have been growing exponentially.
have been growing exponentially.
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03:25
If we focus in on a shorter
period of time from 1950,
period of time from 1950,
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如果我们把目光聚焦到1950年之后，
我们在1988年成立了
03:29
we have established in 1988
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政府间气候变化专业委员会。
03:32
the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change,
on Climate Change,
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03:35
the Rio Earth Summit in 1992,
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1992年在里约热内卢召开了地球峰会，
几年后于2009年签订了哥本哈根协定，
03:39
then rolling on a few years,
in 2009 we had the Copenhagen Accord,
in 2009 we had the Copenhagen Accord,
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03:44
where it established avoiding
a two-degree temperature rise
a two-degree temperature rise
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在符合科学和保持公正的基础上
来避免这2℃的升温。
03:48
in keeping with the science
and on the basis of equity.
and on the basis of equity.
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03:52
And then in 2012, we had the Rio+20 event.
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之后在2012年我们召开了里约+20会议。
这一路走来，经过所有这些会议
03:56
And all the way through,
during all of these meetings
during all of these meetings
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和各种其他活动，
03:59
and many others as well,
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04:01
emissions have continued to rise.
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排放量却依旧持续增长。
04:04
And if we focus on our historical
emission trend in recent years,
emission trend in recent years,
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而如果我们聚焦在近几年的排放趋势，
结合我们对于
04:10
and we put that together
with our understanding
with our understanding
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全球经济走向的理解，
04:12
of the direction of travel
in our global economy,
in our global economy,
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04:15
then we are much more on track
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那么我们其实正在迈向
4℃的全球变暖趋势，
04:17
for a four-degree centigrade
global warming
global warming
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04:20
than we are for the two-degree centigrade.
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而并非2℃。
04:24
Now, let's just pause for a moment
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现在让我们暂停并
思考一下这个4℃的全球平均升温。
04:26
and think about this four-degree
global average temperature.
global average temperature.
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04:30
Most of our planet
is actually made up of the sea.
is actually made up of the sea.
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地球上大部分地区是海洋。
04:34
Now, because the sea has a greater
thermal inertia than the land,
thermal inertia than the land,
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因为海洋比陆地有更大的热惯性，
04:38
the average temperatures over land
are actually going to be higher
are actually going to be higher
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所以陆地上的平均温度
会比海上的平均温度高。
04:41
than they are over the sea.
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04:43
The second thing is that we
as human beings don't experience
as human beings don't experience
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还有就是我们作为人类不会体验到
全球的平均温度。
04:47
global average temperatures.
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04:49
We experience hot days, cold days,
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我们会体验到热天，冷天，
雨天，特别是如果你和我一样
住在曼彻斯特。
住在曼彻斯特。
04:52
rainy days, especially if you live
in Manchester like me.
in Manchester like me.
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04:55
So now put yourself in a city center.
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想象一下你身处一个城市中心。
在世界的某个地方：
04:58
Imagine somewhere in the world:
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孟买，北京，纽约，伦敦。
05:00
Mumbai, Beijing, New York, London.
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这是你经历过的最热的一天。
05:03
It's the hottest day
that you've ever experienced.
that you've ever experienced.
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05:07
There's sun beating down,
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火辣辣的太阳直射下来，
混凝土和玻璃建筑环绕着你。
05:08
there's concrete and glass all around you.
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05:11
Now imagine that same day --
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想象在同样的一天——
但是要比当天的热浪高出
05:13
but it's six, eight,
maybe 10 to 12 degrees warmer
maybe 10 to 12 degrees warmer
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05:18
on that day during that heat wave.
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6，8，甚至10-12℃。
05:20
That's the kind of thing
we're going to experience
we're going to experience
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这就是我们即将要经历的
全球平均升温4℃的情景。
05:23
under a four-degree global
average temperature scenario.
average temperature scenario.
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05:27
And the problem with these extremes,
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这些极端气候带来的问题
不仅仅是极端的温度，
05:29
and not just the temperature extremes,
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还有极端的风暴以及其他气候影响，
05:31
but also the extremes in terms of storms
and other climate impacts,
and other climate impacts,
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而我们建造的基础设施还并不能
承受这些极端事件。
承受这些极端事件。
05:35
is our infrastructure is just not set up
to deal with these sorts of events.
to deal with these sorts of events.
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05:40
So our roads and our rail networks
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我们的道路和铁路网络
被设计成只在一定程度的影响下
05:42
have been designed to last for a long time
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才能经久耐用，
05:44
and withstand only
certain amounts of impacts
certain amounts of impacts
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世界各地都是如此。
05:47
in different parts of the world.
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而这将面临极度的挑战。
05:48
And this is going to be
extremely challenged.
extremely challenged.
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我们的发电站本来是靠水来冷却到
05:51
Our power stations
are expected to be cooled by water
are expected to be cooled by water
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一个特定的温度，
来保持设备的有效性和弹性。
来保持设备的有效性和弹性。
05:54
to a certain temperature
to remain effective and resilient.
to remain effective and resilient.
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05:58
And our buildings
are designed to be comfortable
are designed to be comfortable
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我们的建筑是被设计成
在一定的温度范围内
在一定的温度范围内
才能使人感到舒适。
06:01
within a particular temperature range.
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而这些都将在4℃升温的情景下
06:03
And this is all going to be
significantly challenged
significantly challenged
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面临极大的挑战。
06:06
under a four-degree-type scenario.
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而我们的基础设施还
无法应对这些挑战。
无法应对这些挑战。
06:08
Our infrastructure has not been
designed to cope with this.
designed to cope with this.
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06:14
So if we go back, also thinking
about four degrees,
about four degrees,
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如果我们再想想4℃的升温，
这些影响并不是直接的，
06:18
it's not just the direct impacts,
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还有一些间接影响。
06:20
but also some indirect impacts.
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06:22
So if we take food security, for example.
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比如说食品安全。
06:25
Maize and wheat yields
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玉米和小麦的产量
06:28
in some parts of the world
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在世界的某些地方
最高将会有40%的下降，
06:29
are expected to be up to 40 percent lower
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06:33
under a four-degree scenario,
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在4℃升温的情景下，
大米的产量最高会有30%的下降。
06:35
rice up to 30 percent lower.
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06:38
This will be absolutely devastating
for global food security.
for global food security.
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这对全球食品安全绝对是灾难性的。
06:42
So all in all, the kinds
of impacts anticipated
of impacts anticipated
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总之在升温4℃的情况下
设想出来的种种影响，
06:45
under this four-degree centigrade scenario
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06:49
are going to be incompatible
with global organized living.
with global organized living.
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都将会和全球有序的生存模式相矛盾。
06:55
So back to our trajectories and our graphs
of four degrees and two degrees.
of four degrees and two degrees.
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回到2℃和4℃的图表中来，
07:00
Is it reasonable still
to focus on the two-degree path?
to focus on the two-degree path?
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专注于2℃的路径是否还是合理的？
07:04
There are quite a lot of my colleagues
and other scientists
and other scientists
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有许多我的同事和其他科学家
也许会说现在已经无法避免2℃升温了。
07:07
who would say that it's now too late
to avoid a two-degree warming.
to avoid a two-degree warming.
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07:11
But I would just like
to draw on my own research
to draw on my own research
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但根据我自己在
能源系统，食品系统，
07:14
on energy systems, on food systems,
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航空以及海运方面的研究，
07:17
aviation and also shipping,
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07:19
just to say that I think there is still
a small fighting chance
a small fighting chance
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我认为在避免这危险的2℃气候变化上
我们仍有很小的胜算。
07:23
of avoiding this two-degree
dangerous climate change.
dangerous climate change.
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但我们必须要掌握确切的数据
07:27
But we really need
to get to grips with the numbers
to get to grips with the numbers
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来谋划对策。
07:29
to work out how to do it.
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07:31
So if you focus in on this trajectory
and these graphs,
and these graphs,
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所以如果你仔细看图表中的这些轨迹，
07:35
the yellow circle there
highlights that the departure
highlights that the departure
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这个黄色的圈标注出了
红色的4℃路径
07:38
from the red four-degree pathway
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和绿色2℃路径的分叉点已经迫在眉睫。
07:40
to the two-degree
green pathway is immediate.
green pathway is immediate.
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07:45
And that's because
of cumulative emissions,
of cumulative emissions,
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这是基于积累排放量，
或是碳预算的结果。
07:48
or the carbon budget.
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也就是说，由于这个房间的
07:49
So in other words, because
of the lights and the projectors
of the lights and the projectors
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灯光和投影仪的运作，
07:53
that are on in this room right now,
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二氧化碳被排放到大气中，
07:55
the CO2 that is going into our atmosphere
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这种由消耗电能而产生的碳排放
07:57
as a result of that
electricity consumption
electricity consumption
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07:59
lasts a very long time.
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会在大气中停留很长一段时间。
有些甚至会在大气中停留
一个世纪或是更长。
一个世纪或是更长。
08:01
Some of it will be in our atmosphere
for a century, maybe much longer.
for a century, maybe much longer.
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它会积累，而温室气体有积累性。
08:05
It will accumulate, and greenhouse gases
tend to be cumulative.
tend to be cumulative.
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08:09
And that tells us something
about these trajectories.
about these trajectories.
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这就解释了这些轨迹的走向。
首先，这些曲线之下的区域才是关键，
08:12
First of all, it tells us that it's
the area under these curves that matter,
the area under these curves that matter,
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而不是在未来的某一天达到某个值。
08:16
not where we reach
at a particular date in future.
at a particular date in future.
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这很重要，因为这并不取决于
08:19
And that's important,
because it doesn't matter
because it doesn't matter
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我们能否在2049年的最后一天
08:21
if we come up with some amazing
whiz-bang technology
whiz-bang technology
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开发出什么高端的科技，
08:24
to sort out our energy problem
on the last day of 2049,
on the last day of 2049,
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在千钧一发之际解决了能源问题。
08:28
just in the nick of time
to sort things out.
to sort things out.
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因为在这个过程中碳排放
依然会不断累积。
依然会不断累积。
08:30
Because in the meantime,
emissions will have accumulated.
emissions will have accumulated.
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08:34
So if we continue on this red,
four-degree centigrade scenario pathway,
four-degree centigrade scenario pathway,
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所以如果我们继续沿着这条4℃红线，
08:40
the longer we continue on it,
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在上面继续的时间越久，
之后就需要弥补的就越多。
08:42
that will need to be
made up for in later years
made up for in later years
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来保持相同的碳预算，
使曲线下方的区域面积不变。
使曲线下方的区域面积不变。
08:45
to keep the same carbon budget,
to keep the same area under the curve,
to keep the same area under the curve,
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08:49
which means that that trajectory,
the red one there, becomes steeper.
the red one there, becomes steeper.
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也就是说这条红色的轨迹
会变得更加陡峭。
会变得更加陡峭。
也就是说，如果我们不减少
中短期的排放量，
中短期的排放量，
08:54
So in other words, if we don't reduce
emissions in the short to medium term,
emissions in the short to medium term,
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那就必须在未来更为显著地
减少年同比排放量。
减少年同比排放量。
08:57
then we'll have to make more significant
year-on-year emission reductions.
year-on-year emission reductions.
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09:02
We also know that we have
to decarbonize our energy system.
to decarbonize our energy system.
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我们还必须给我们的能源系统脱碳。
09:06
But if we don't start to cut
emissions in the short to medium term,
emissions in the short to medium term,
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但如果我们不减少中短期的排放，
那我们就必须更迅速地行动起来。
09:10
then we will have to do that even sooner.
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09:13
So this poses really big
challenges for us.
challenges for us.
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这对我们来说是一个很大的挑战。
09:18
The other thing it does is tells us
something about energy policy.
something about energy policy.
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这个图标还告诉了我们
关于能源政策的信息。
关于能源政策的信息。
09:21
If you live in a part of the world where
per capita emissions are already high,
per capita emissions are already high,
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如果你生活在一个
人均排放量已经很高的地区，
人均排放量已经很高的地区，
那我们就需要减少对能源的需求。
09:25
it points us towards
reducing energy demand.
reducing energy demand.
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09:29
And that's because
with all the will in the world,
with all the will in the world,
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而因为无论我们怎么努力,
那些需要我们及时推出
09:32
the large-scale engineering infrastructure
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来减少能源供应方碳排放的
09:34
that we need to roll out rapidly
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大型基础设施工程
09:36
to decarbonize the supply side
of our energy system
of our energy system
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都无法及时完成。
09:40
is just simply not going
to happen in time.
to happen in time.
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09:42
So it doesn't matter
whether we choose nuclear power
whether we choose nuclear power
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所以无论我们是选择核能
还是碳捕获和储存，
09:45
or carbon capture and storage,
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增加生物燃料的产能，
09:47
upscale our biofuel production,
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或是提高风力发电和
潮汐发电机组的转速。
潮汐发电机组的转速。
09:49
or go for a much bigger roll-out
of wind turbines and wave turbines.
of wind turbines and wave turbines.
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所有这一切都需要时间。
09:53
All of that will take time.
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09:55
So because it's the area
under the curve that matters,
under the curve that matters,
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而因为曲线下方的区域才是关键，
我们就需要专注在能源利用效率上，
09:58
we need to focus on energy efficiency,
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还有节约能源——
也就是少消耗能源。
也就是少消耗能源。
10:00
but also on energy conservation --
in other words, using less energy.
in other words, using less energy.
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10:05
And if we do that, that also means
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如果我们这么做，那也就意味着
随着能源供应科技的发展，
10:07
that as we continue to roll out
the supply-side technology,
the supply-side technology,
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10:11
we will have less of a job to do
if we've actually managed
if we've actually managed
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如果我们能确实减少能源消耗，
那我们的负担就会越来越轻，
10:14
to reduce our energy consumption,
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因为我们将不再需要
那么多能源来供应基础设施。
那么多能源来供应基础设施。
10:16
because we will then need
less infrastructure on the supply side.
less infrastructure on the supply side.
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10:21
Another issue that we really
need to grapple with
need to grapple with
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另一个需要我们解决的问题是
福祉，以及公平。
10:24
is the issue of well-being and equity.
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10:27
There are many parts of the world where
the standard of living needs to rise.
the standard of living needs to rise.
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世界上很多地区的生活水平
仍有待提高。
仍有待提高。
10:33
Bbut with energy systems
currently reliant on fossil fuel,
currently reliant on fossil fuel,
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而现在的能源系统依赖于化石燃料，
随着这些地区经济的增长，
排放量也会增长。
排放量也会增长。
10:38
as those economies grow
so will emissions.
so will emissions.
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10:41
And now, if we're all constrained
by the same amount of carbon budget,
by the same amount of carbon budget,
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而现在如果我们都受限于等量的碳预算，
那就意味着要提高部分地区的排放量，
10:44
that means that if some parts of
the world's emissions are needing to rise,
the world's emissions are needing to rise,
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同时减少其他地区的排放量。
10:48
then other parts of the world's
emissions need to reduce.
emissions need to reduce.
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10:53
So that poses very significant challenges
for wealthy nations.
for wealthy nations.
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这对于发达国家来说一个很大的挑战，
10:57
Because according to our research,
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因为根据我们的研究，
11:00
if you're in a country where per capita
emissions are really high --
emissions are really high --
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如果你在一个人均排放量很高的国家，
比如北美，欧洲，澳大利亚——
11:03
so North America, Europe, Australia --
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11:07
emissions reductions of the order
of 10 percent per year,
of 10 percent per year,
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每年要实现10%的减排量，
11:11
and starting immediately,
will be required for a good chance
will be required for a good chance
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而且需要立即执行，才能很好地
避免2℃的升温。
11:15
of avoiding the two-degree target.
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11:18
Let me just put that into context.
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把这放在一定的背景下看看。
经济学家Nichola Stern
11:19
The economist Nicholas Stern
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曾经说过排放量的减少超过每年1%，
11:21
said that emission reductions
of more than one percent per year
of more than one percent per year
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通常就意味着经济衰退
和动荡时期的到来。
和动荡时期的到来。
11:25
had only ever been associated
with economic recession or upheaval.
with economic recession or upheaval.
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11:31
So this poses huge challenges
for the issue of economic growth,
for the issue of economic growth,
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所以，这对经济发展的确
是一个巨大的挑战，
是一个巨大的挑战，
11:37
because if we have our
high carbon infrastructure in place,
high carbon infrastructure in place,
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因为如果我们使用高排放的基础设施，
11:41
it means that if our economies grow,
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那就意味着我们的经济会增长，
11:44
then so do our emissions.
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而排放量也会增长。
11:46
So I'd just like to take
a quote from a paper
a quote from a paper
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这里我想引用一段
我和Kevin Anderson
早在2011论文里的话，
早在2011论文里的话，
11:48
by myself and Kevin Anderson back in 2011
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11:52
where we said that to avoid the two-degree
framing of dangerous climate change,
framing of dangerous climate change,
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当时我们提出要避免
危险的2℃气候变化，
危险的2℃气候变化，
11:58
economic growth needs to be exchanged
at least temporarily
at least temporarily
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至少暂时要以牺牲经济增长为代价，
发达国家要准备好一段时间的经济紧缩。
12:02
for a period of planned austerity
in wealthy nations.
in wealthy nations.
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12:08
This is a really difficult
message to take,
message to take,
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人们很难接受这种说法。
12:12
because what it suggests is that
we really need to do things differently.
we really need to do things differently.
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因为这预示着我们要改变以往的做法。
12:17
This is not about just incremental change.
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不仅仅是渐进式的变革，
12:21
This is about doing things differently,
about whole system change,
about whole system change,
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而是要改变整个系统，
有时候需要我们减缓发展的脚步。
12:26
and sometimes
it's about doing less things.
it's about doing less things.
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这可以涉及到我们所有人，
12:30
And this applies to all of us,
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不论我们的个人行为能产生多大的影响。
12:32
whatever sphere of influence we have.
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12:35
So it could be from writing
to our local politician
to our local politician
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可以从给地方政客写信开始，
到给老板谏言或是自己对员工的管理。
12:38
to talking to our boss at work
or being the boss at work,
or being the boss at work,
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12:41
or talking with our friends and family,
or, quite simply, changing our lifestyles.
or, quite simply, changing our lifestyles.
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或是和家人朋友商量，
或是单纯改变自己的生活方式。
或是单纯改变自己的生活方式。
12:47
Because we really need
to make significant change.
to make significant change.
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因为我们必须要做出重大的改变。
12:50
At the moment, we're choosing
a four-degree scenario.
a four-degree scenario.
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目前，我们选择了4℃升温的发展趋势。
但如果我们真的想避免2℃升温的话，
12:55
If we really want to avoid
the two-degree scenario,
the two-degree scenario,
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行动已经刻不容缓了。
12:58
there really is no time
like the present to act.
like the present to act.
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谢谢大家。
13:02
Thank you.
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（鼓掌）
13:03
(Applause)
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13:12
Bruno Giussani: Alice,
basically what you're saying,
basically what you're saying,
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Bruno Giussani（BG）：
Alice, 总结一下你刚才说的，
Alice, 总结一下你刚才说的，
就是除非发达国家能每年减排10%，
13:15
the talk is, unless wealthy nations
start cutting 10 percent per year
start cutting 10 percent per year
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从现在开始，今年，而不是2020或2025，
13:18
the emissions now, this year,
not in 2020 or '25,
not in 2020 or '25,
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不然我们将会直接进入4℃升温的情况。
13:23
we are going to go straight
to the four-plus-degree scenario.
to the four-plus-degree scenario.
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13:28
I am wondering what's your take
on the cut by 70 percent for 2070.
on the cut by 70 percent for 2070.
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你对到2070年减排70%是怎么看的？
Alice Bows-Larkin（AB）:
目前来看2℃升温是不可避免的了。
目前来看2℃升温是不可避免的了。
13:31
Alice Bows-Larkin: Yeah, it's just
nowhere near enough to avoid two degrees.
nowhere near enough to avoid two degrees.
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很多时候——
13:35
One of the things that often --
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当这些模型研究指出我们该怎么做的时候，
13:37
when there are these modeling studies
that look at what we need to do,
that look at what we need to do,
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它们都倾向于过于夸大其他国家
13:40
is they tend to hugely overestimate
how quickly other countries in the world
how quickly other countries in the world
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减排的速度，
13:45
can start to reduce emissions.
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所以就会有一些大胆的假设。
13:46
So they make kind of
heroic assumptions about that.
heroic assumptions about that.
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而我们越是这样，由于这是累积排放，
13:50
The more we do that,
because it's the cumulative emissions,
because it's the cumulative emissions,
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短期的行为的影响就越不容忽视。
13:52
the short-term stuff that really matters.
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它的确会有显著的效果。
13:54
So it does make a huge difference.
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比如说像中国这样的大国，
13:56
If a big country like China, for example,
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国家的发展就算只多那么几年，
13:58
continues to grow
even for just a few extra years,
even for just a few extra years,
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也会在脱碳的时候产生巨大的影响。
14:00
that will make a big difference
to when we need to decarbonize.
to when we need to decarbonize.
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所以我们并不知道
这种变化到底何时会出现，
这种变化到底何时会出现，
14:03
So I don't think we can even say
when it will be,
when it will be,
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因为这都取决于我们短期内的行为。
14:06
because it all depends
on what we have to do in the short term.
on what we have to do in the short term.
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但我感到很遗憾，
我们有巨大的改善空间，
我们有巨大的改善空间，
14:09
But I think we've just got huge scope,
and we don't pull those levers
and we don't pull those levers
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但却没有采取行动来减少对能源的需求。
14:12
that allow us to reduce
the energy demand, which is a shame.
the energy demand, which is a shame.
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BG：Alice，谢谢你来到
TED 分享这些数据。
TED 分享这些数据。
14:15
BG: Alice, thank you for coming
to TED and sharing this data.
to TED and sharing this data.
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AB: 谢谢
（鼓掌）
14:18
ABL: Thank you.
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14:20
(Applause)
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Translated by Xiaomeng Tang
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Alice Bows-Larkin - Climate scholarClimate researcher Alice Bows-Larkin connects her academic research to the broader policy context, helping create policies to deal with our changing planet.
Why you should listen
Through her work on international transport, energy systems and carbon budgets, Alice Bows-Larkin has helped shape policies throughout the world, including the UK’s Climate Change Act. After studying physics and climate modeling, she joined the interdisciplinary Tyndall Centre at the University of Manchester. She’s currently working on a large project analyzing the future of shipping as climate shifts, and is exploring how to upscale innovation at the intersection of water, food and energy.
More profile about the speakerAlice Bows-Larkin | Speaker | TED.com