TEDxCambridge
David Autor: Will automation take away all our jobs?
大卫・奥图: 机器会取代我们的工作吗？
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有一件矛盾的事情，你可能从未听过：过去一个世纪以来，尽管机械的发明取代了我们很多的工作，但美国成年人的劳工就业比率在过去125年来却不断攀升。为什么我们的劳工没有过剩且技术没有被淘汰呢？在这场有关于未来工作的谈话中，经济学家大卫．奥图（David Autor）为我们解答了为什么仍有那么多的工作岗位，并给出了一个令人惊讶又充满希望的答案。
David Autor - Economist
David Autor's work assesses the labor market consequences of technological change and globalization. Full bio
David Autor's work assesses the labor market consequences of technological change and globalization. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
Here's a startling fact:
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这里有一个惊人的事实：
00:15
in the 45 years since the introduction
of the automated teller machine,
of the automated teller machine,
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自从自动取款机，就是那些
可以取现金的机器出现的45年来，
00:18
those vending machines that dispense cash,
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00:21
the number of human bank tellers
employed in the United States
employed in the United States
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美国银行柜员的数量
00:24
has roughly doubled,
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大概增加了两倍，
00:26
from about a quarter of a million
to a half a million.
to a half a million.
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从约25万增加到了50万。
00:29
A quarter of a million in 1970
to about a half a million today,
to about a half a million today,
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也就是说1970年的25万
到现在的50万，
到现在的50万，
00:32
with 100,000 added since the year 2000.
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其中有10万是2000年以后增加的。
这些事实，在最近的一本
00:36
These facts, revealed in a recent book
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由波士顿大学经济学家
James Bessen撰写的书中，
James Bessen撰写的书中，
00:39
by Boston University
economist James Bessen,
economist James Bessen,
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引发了一个有趣的问题：
00:42
raise an intriguing question:
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这些银行职员都在做什么？
00:44
what are all those tellers doing,
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00:46
and why hasn't automation
eliminated their employment by now?
eliminated their employment by now?
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为什么自动化服务到现在
还没有让他们失业？
还没有让他们失业？
如果你想一下，
00:50
If you think about it,
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过去200年内的许多伟大发明的
00:51
many of the great inventions
of the last 200 years
of the last 200 years
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设计初衷都是替代人力劳动。
00:55
were designed to replace human labor.
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00:58
Tractors were developed
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拖拉机的发明
让机械动力替代了人体的劳作。
01:00
to substitute mechanical power
for human physical toil.
for human physical toil.
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流水线的设计
01:04
Assembly lines were engineered
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是为了以机器的标准化生产
01:07
to replace inconsistent human handiwork
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替代手工作业的不稳定性。
01:10
with machine perfection.
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编写计算机程序是为了
01:12
Computers were programmed to swap out
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避免易错且不稳定的人工运算，
01:15
error-prone, inconsistent
human calculation
human calculation
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以实现数字化的精准。
01:18
with digital perfection.
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01:20
These inventions have worked.
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这些发明都奏效了。
01:22
We no longer dig ditches by hand,
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我们再也不用徒手开挖沟渠，
01:25
pound tools out of wrought iron
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不用炼铁打铁制造工具，
01:27
or do bookkeeping using actual books.
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或者用实体账本记账。
01:30
And yet, the fraction of US adults
employed in the labor market
employed in the labor market
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然而，2016年美国成年人口的
就业比例
01:35
is higher now in 2016
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与125年前的1890年相比更高了，
01:37
than it was 125 years ago, in 1890,
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01:40
and it's risen in just about every decade
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并且这125年间，
几乎每10年都有增长。
01:43
in the intervening 125 years.
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01:46
This poses a paradox.
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这就构成了一个矛盾。
01:48
Our machines increasingly
do our work for us.
do our work for us.
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机器在为我们负担越来越多的工作。
01:51
Why doesn't this make our labor redundant
and our skills obsolete?
and our skills obsolete?
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为什么这没有使得人类
劳动力过剩或者技术被淘汰呢？
劳动力过剩或者技术被淘汰呢？
为什么还有这么多工作岗位？
01:56
Why are there still so many jobs?
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（观众笑声）
01:59
(Laughter)
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02:01
I'm going to try to answer
that question tonight,
that question tonight,
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今晚我将尝试回答这个问题，
同时说明这对就业前景意味着什么，
02:03
and along the way, I'm going to tell you
what this means for the future of work
what this means for the future of work
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以及在我们的社会中，自动化带来的挑战
02:07
and the challenges that automation
does and does not pose
does and does not pose
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02:11
for our society.
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和尚未撼动的东西。
为什么还有这么多岗位？
02:14
Why are there so many jobs?
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02:17
There are actually two fundamental
economic principles at stake.
economic principles at stake.
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这实际上涉及到两个
经济学基本原则。
经济学基本原则。
其中一个有关人类的聪明才智
02:21
One has to do with human genius
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和创造力。
02:23
and creativity.
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02:25
The other has to do
with human insatiability,
with human insatiability,
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另一个有关人类不断求索的天性，
02:28
or greed, if you like.
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也可以称之为贪婪。
我把第一个原则称为，O形环原则，
02:29
I'm going to call the first of these
the O-ring principle,
the O-ring principle,
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它决定了我们工作的类型。
02:32
and it determines
the type of work that we do.
the type of work that we do.
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02:34
The second principle
is the never-get-enough principle,
is the never-get-enough principle,
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第二个原则叫做“永不满足”原则，
它决定实际存在多少工作岗位。
02:37
and it determines how many jobs
there actually are.
there actually are.
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让我们从O形环原则开始讲。
02:41
Let's start with the O-ring.
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02:43
ATMs, automated teller machines,
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ATM，即自动取款机，
02:46
had two countervailing effects
on bank teller employment.
on bank teller employment.
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给银行职员的聘用带来了
两种相反的影响。
两种相反的影响。
02:49
As you would expect,
they replaced a lot of teller tasks.
they replaced a lot of teller tasks.
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它们代替了很多柜员业务。
每家银行的职员数量
减少了大约三分之一。
减少了大约三分之一。
02:52
The number of tellers per branch
fell by about a third.
fell by about a third.
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02:56
But banks quickly discovered that it
also was cheaper to open new branches,
also was cheaper to open new branches,
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但很快银行发现，
设置新分行的成本也降低了，
设置新分行的成本也降低了，
03:00
and the number of bank branches
increased by about 40 percent
increased by about 40 percent
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而且在同一时期内，分行的数量
增长了大约40%。
03:03
in the same time period.
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03:04
The net result was more branches
and more tellers.
and more tellers.
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净结果就是更多的银行
和更多的职员。
和更多的职员。
03:09
But those tellers were doing
somewhat different work.
somewhat different work.
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不过，这些银行职员的
工作内容发生了变化。
工作内容发生了变化。
03:12
As their routine,
cash-handling tasks receded,
cash-handling tasks receded,
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随着他们常规的现金业务的减少，
他们不太像办事员了，
03:16
they became less like checkout clerks
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03:18
and more like salespeople,
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而是更像销售员。
和客户建立关系，
03:20
forging relationships with customers,
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为他们解决问题，
03:22
solving problems
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给客户介绍诸如信用卡，
贷款，投资等新的产品：
贷款，投资等新的产品：
03:23
and introducing them to new products
like credit cards, loans and investments:
like credit cards, loans and investments:
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03:28
more tellers doing
a more cognitively demanding job.
a more cognitively demanding job.
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更多的银行职员从事着
对脑力劳动需求更高的工作。
对脑力劳动需求更高的工作。
03:32
There's a general principle here.
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这里有一个普适的原则。
03:35
Most of the work that we do
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我们从事的大部分工作
03:36
requires a multiplicity of skills,
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要求多样化的技能。
03:41
and brains and brawn,
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既要头脑聪明，又要坚韧不拔，
既要求专业技术，又要求敏锐的直觉，
03:44
technical expertise and intuitive mastery,
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03:48
perspiration and inspiration
in the words of Thomas Edison.
in the words of Thomas Edison.
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用爱迪生的话来说就是 天才加勤奋。
03:51
In general, automating
some subset of those tasks
some subset of those tasks
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总的来说，让其中的一些任务自动化
03:54
doesn't make the other ones unnecessary.
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不代表其它的内容变的不必要了。
03:57
In fact, it makes them more important.
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恰恰相反，这使得其它的技能变得更加重要。
04:01
It increases their economic value.
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它们的经济价值得到了提升。
04:03
Let me give you a stark example.
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给你们举一个很直接的例子。
04:05
In 1986, the space shuttle Challenger
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1986年，挑战者号航天飞船
04:08
exploded and crashed back down to Earth
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在起飞后不到2分钟的时间内
04:11
less than two minutes after takeoff.
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爆炸并坠落到地面。
04:13
The cause of that crash, it turned out,
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后来发现事故原因
是助推火箭上的
一个小小的橡胶O形环
一个小小的橡胶O形环
04:16
was an inexpensive rubber O-ring
in the booster rocket
in the booster rocket
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前一晚在发射平台上冻住了，
04:20
that had frozen on the launchpad
the night before
the night before
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04:23
and failed catastrophically
moments after takeoff.
moments after takeoff.
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在发射不久后失效并引发了悲剧。
04:26
In this multibillion dollar enterprise
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在这项耗资几十亿美元的巨大工程中，
那个小小的橡胶O形环
04:29
that simple rubber O-ring
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决定了发射成功，
04:31
made the difference
between mission success
between mission success
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还是导致7位航天员的惨死。
04:33
and the calamitous death
of seven astronauts.
of seven astronauts.
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04:37
An ingenious metaphor
for this tragic setting
for this tragic setting
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对这一悲剧催生的一个巧妙的比喻，
04:41
is the O-ring production function,
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是O形环生产方程
（O-ring production function），
（O-ring production function），
04:43
named by Harvard economist Michael Kremer
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由哈佛大学经济学家Michael Kremer
在挑战者号悲剧之后命名。
04:46
after the Challenger disaster.
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04:48
The O-ring production function
conceives of the work
conceives of the work
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O形环生产方程认为一项成果
是由一系列互相联结的步骤
04:50
as a series of interlocking steps,
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组成的链。
04:53
links in a chain.
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04:54
Every one of those links must hold
for the mission to succeed.
for the mission to succeed.
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每一处联结都必须牢固
才能保证任务的成功。
才能保证任务的成功。
如果任意一处的联结失败了，
04:58
If any of them fails,
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05:00
the mission, or the product
or the service,
or the service,
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这项任务，或是产品，或是服务
都会失败。
05:03
comes crashing down.
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05:05
This precarious situation
has a surprisingly positive implication,
has a surprisingly positive implication,
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这种危险的情况
有令人惊讶的积极影响，
有令人惊讶的积极影响，
因为它可以保证
05:10
which is that improvements
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流程上任何一个环节的可靠性
05:12
in the reliability
of any one link in the chain
of any one link in the chain
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05:15
increases the value
of improving any of the other links.
of improving any of the other links.
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对其它环节的价值能够
产生一个促进的作用。
产生一个促进的作用。
具体来说，如果流程中大多数的
联结很脆弱并且易于破裂，
联结很脆弱并且易于破裂，
05:19
Concretely, if most of the links
are brittle and prone to breakage,
are brittle and prone to breakage,
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那么每个环节的可靠与否
05:24
the fact that your link
is not that reliable
is not that reliable
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05:26
is not that important.
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就显得不那么重要了。
反正很有可能别的东西也会坏掉。
05:28
Probably something else will break anyway.
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但当所有环节都变得
很坚固可靠时，
很坚固可靠时，
05:30
But as all the other links
become robust and reliable,
become robust and reliable,
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05:34
the importance of your link
becomes more essential.
becomes more essential.
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每一个环节就都显得很重要。
极限状况下，每个细节都与它息息相关。
05:37
In the limit, everything depends upon it.
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05:40
The reason the O-ring was critical
to space shuttle Challenger
to space shuttle Challenger
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O型环对挑战者号很重要的原因，
05:44
is because everything else
worked perfectly.
worked perfectly.
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是因为其它一切都可以很好地运行。
05:47
If the Challenger were
kind of the space era equivalent
kind of the space era equivalent
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如果挑战者号可以在空间上等同于
微软Windows 2000——
05:50
of Microsoft Windows 2000 --
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05:52
(Laughter)
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（观众笑声）
那么O型环的可靠性
就不那么重要了，
就不那么重要了，
05:54
the reliability of the O-ring
wouldn't have mattered
wouldn't have mattered
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因为机器也多半会（因为其他原因）坏掉。
05:57
because the machine would have crashed.
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05:59
(Laughter)
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（观众笑声）
06:01
Here's the broader point.
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这是一个更宽泛的观点。
06:03
In much of the work that we do,
we are the O-rings.
we are the O-rings.
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在我们做的很多工作中 ，
我们就是O型环。
我们就是O型环。
06:07
Yes, ATMs could do
certain cash-handling tasks
certain cash-handling tasks
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是的，ATM机可以做
一些处理现金的任务，
一些处理现金的任务，
06:10
faster and better than tellers,
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而且跟银行柜员比起来更快、更好，
但这并不代表银行柜员就是多余的。
06:14
but that didn't make tellers superfluous.
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06:16
It increased the importance
of their problem-solving skills
of their problem-solving skills
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它提升了他们解决问题的能力，
以及与顾客的关系。
06:19
and their relationships with customers.
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06:22
The same principle applies
if we're building a building,
if we're building a building,
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同样的原理也适用于
建造一栋大楼，
建造一栋大楼，
诊断和照顾一位病人，
06:25
if we're diagnosing
and caring for a patient,
and caring for a patient,
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06:27
or if we are teaching a class
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或者是给一教室的高中生
06:31
to a roomful of high schoolers.
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教一门课。
06:33
As our tools improve,
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随着我们的工具功能越来越强大，
06:35
technology magnifies our leverage
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科技放大了我们的影响力，
06:38
and increases the importance
of our expertise
of our expertise
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提高了专业性的重要性，
同时增强了我们的判断力和创造力。
06:42
and our judgment and our creativity.
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这就引出了第二个原则：
06:45
And that brings me
to the second principle:
to the second principle:
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永远不满足于现状。
06:48
never get enough.
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06:50
You may be thinking, OK, O-ring, got it,
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你可能在想，不就是O型环么，明白了，
06:52
that says the jobs that people do
will be important.
will be important.
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就是说人们所做的工作将会很重要，
06:55
They can't be done by machines,
but they still need to be done.
but they still need to be done.
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这些必不可少的工作
无法由机器替代完成。
无法由机器替代完成。
然而那没有告诉我
我们将会需要多少工作。
我们将会需要多少工作。
06:58
But that doesn't tell me
how many jobs there will need to be.
how many jobs there will need to be.
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如果你仔细想这个问题，
难道不是一种
难道不是一种
07:01
If you think about it,
isn't it kind of self-evident
isn't it kind of self-evident
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一旦我们在某些事情上足够高效了，
07:04
that once we get sufficiently
productive at something,
productive at something,
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我们实际上就对工作胜券在握了？
07:06
we've basically
worked our way out of a job?
worked our way out of a job?
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在1900年，40%的美国雇员
07:08
In 1900, 40 percent of all US employment
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07:11
was on farms.
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都在农场里工作。
07:13
Today, it's less than two percent.
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今天，这个数字小于2%。
07:15
Why are there so few farmers today?
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为什么现在只有这么少的农民？
07:17
It's not because we're eating less.
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并不是因为我们吃得少了。
07:19
(Laughter)
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（观众笑声）
07:22
A century of productivity
growth in farming
growth in farming
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一个世纪农产品生产力的提高
07:24
means that now,
a couple of million farmers
a couple of million farmers
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意味着现在几百万的农民
07:27
can feed a nation of 320 million.
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就足以养活一个3.2亿人口的国家。
07:29
That's amazing progress,
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这是一个惊人的进步，
07:31
but it also means there are
only so many O-ring jobs left in farming.
only so many O-ring jobs left in farming.
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但这也代表只有一部分
O型环工作还在农业中存在着。
O型环工作还在农业中存在着。
07:35
So clearly, technology can eliminate jobs.
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显而易见，科技可以减少工作机会，
农业只是一个例子。
07:38
Farming is only one example.
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还有很多方面都和农业一样。
07:40
There are many others like it.
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07:43
But what's true about a single product
or service or industry
or service or industry
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但是对于一项产品、服务
或者工业正确的策略，
或者工业正确的策略，
07:47
has never been true
about the economy as a whole.
about the economy as a whole.
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在经济整体上，从来都不是正确的。
很多我们目前所投身的工业——
07:50
Many of the industries
in which we now work --
in which we now work --
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07:52
health and medicine,
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比如健康和医药，
金融和保险，
07:54
finance and insurance,
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电子产品和计算机——
07:57
electronics and computing --
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07:59
were tiny or barely existent
a century ago.
a century ago.
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在一个世纪前才初露端倪，
或者几乎不存在。
或者几乎不存在。
很多我们花巨资购买的产品——
08:02
Many of the products
that we spend a lot of our money on --
that we spend a lot of our money on --
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比如空调，体育用交通工具，
08:05
air conditioners, sport utility vehicles,
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电脑和移动设备——
08:07
computers and mobile devices --
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都曾经价格不菲，
08:09
were unattainably expensive,
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或者在一个世纪前还没有问世。
08:10
or just hadn't been invented
a century ago.
a century ago.
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08:13
As automation frees our time,
increases the scope of what is possible,
increases the scope of what is possible,
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随着自动化让我们有更多自己的时间，
让更多的机遇成为可能，
让更多的机遇成为可能，
我们发明了新产品，新想法，新服务，
08:18
we invent new products,
new ideas, new services
new ideas, new services
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08:22
that command our attention,
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那些都需要我们的注意力，
08:23
occupy our time
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占用我们的时间，
以及刺激我们的消费。
08:25
and spur consumption.
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08:27
You may think some
of these things are frivolous --
of these things are frivolous --
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你可能觉得有些事情太过浮夸——
比如极限瑜伽，冒险性的旅游，
08:31
extreme yoga, adventure tourism,
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或者口袋妖怪游戏——
08:33
Pokémon GO --
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我也许会赞同你的想法。
08:35
and I might agree with you.
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08:36
But people desire these things,
and they're willing to work hard for them.
and they're willing to work hard for them.
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但是人们渴望这些东西，
而且愿意努力工作去得到它们。
而且愿意努力工作去得到它们。
08:40
The average worker in 2015
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2015年的普通工人
08:42
wanting to attain
the average living standard in 1915
the average living standard in 1915
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若想要实现1915年
普通工人的生活品质，
普通工人的生活品质，
08:46
could do so by working
just 17 weeks a year,
just 17 weeks a year,
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一年仅仅需要工作17周，
08:50
one third of the time.
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三分之一的时间。
08:52
But most people don't choose to do that.
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但大部分人并不会这么做。
08:54
They are willing to work hard
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他们更情愿努力工作
08:56
to harvest the technological bounty
that is available to them.
that is available to them.
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3881
去获得科技带给他们的好处。
09:00
Material abundance has never
eliminated perceived scarcity.
eliminated perceived scarcity.
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物质的富足从没有
消除人们观念中的稀缺。
消除人们观念中的稀缺。
09:04
In the words of economist
Thorstein Veblen,
Thorstein Veblen,
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就像经济学家
Thorstein Veblen说的那样，
Thorstein Veblen说的那样，
09:07
invention is the mother of necessity.
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创造是需求之母。
09:11
Now ...
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1200
那么...
09:13
So if you accept these two principles,
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1856
如果你接受这两个原则，
09:15
the O-ring principle
and the never-get-enough principle,
and the never-get-enough principle,
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2896
O型环原则和永不满足原则，
09:18
then you agree with me.
194
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1336
那么你跟我想的一样。
工作始终都会存在。
09:19
There will be jobs.
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1400
09:21
Does that mean there's
nothing to worry about?
nothing to worry about?
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2176
但那就表示没什么好担心的吗？
09:23
Automation, employment, robots and jobs --
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2776
自动化，雇员，机器人和工作——
一切都会顺其自然地和谐发展吗？
09:26
it'll all take care of itself?
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09:29
No.
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1216
不是的。
这并不是我的观点。
09:30
That is not my argument.
200
558360
2056
09:32
Automation creates wealth
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2536
自动化会通过提高工作效率
09:35
by allowing us to do
more work in less time.
more work in less time.
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带来财富。
09:37
There is no economic law
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1576
没有哪条经济定律
09:39
that says that we
will use that wealth well,
will use that wealth well,
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2776
说我们可以很好地
利用那一部分财富，
利用那一部分财富，
09:42
and that is worth worrying about.
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1800
而那正是值得担心的东西。
09:44
Consider two countries,
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1816
想想这两个国家，
09:46
Norway and Saudi Arabia.
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2136
挪威和沙特阿拉伯。
它们都有很多的石油资源，
09:48
Both oil-rich nations,
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576800
1576
09:50
it's like they have money
spurting out of a hole in the ground.
spurting out of a hole in the ground.
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3576
就好像它们的钱是
从地下的洞喷出来的一样。
从地下的洞喷出来的一样。
09:54
(Laughter)
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582000
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（观众笑声）
但是两个国家在利用这笔财富
去帮助人类的发展繁荣上，
去帮助人类的发展繁荣上，
09:55
But they haven't used that wealth
equally well to foster human prosperity,
equally well to foster human prosperity,
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没有获得相同的效果。
10:00
human prospering.
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10:02
Norway is a thriving democracy.
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2736
挪威是个欣欣向荣的民主国家，
10:05
By and large, its citizens
work and play well together.
work and play well together.
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593200
3656
总体而言，它的公民工作生活很富足。
10:08
It's typically numbered
between first and fourth
between first and fourth
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3016
国家人民的幸福指数排名，基本都在
第一到第四之间徘徊。
10:11
in rankings of national happiness.
216
599920
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10:14
Saudi Arabia is an absolute monarchy
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而沙特阿拉伯却是个
君主专制的国家，
君主专制的国家，
10:17
in which many citizens
lack a path for personal advancement.
lack a path for personal advancement.
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3616
在那里很多公民
都没有一个获得个人晋升的渠道。
都没有一个获得个人晋升的渠道。
10:21
It's typically ranked 35th
among nations in happiness,
among nations in happiness,
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3496
国家人民的幸福指数
全球排名基本上都落在第35名左右，
全球排名基本上都落在第35名左右，
10:24
which is low for such a wealthy nation.
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对于这样一个富有的国家
来说排名算得上低了。
来说排名算得上低了。
仅仅为了比较，
10:26
Just by way of comparison,
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1336
10:28
the US is typically ranked
around 12th or 13th.
around 12th or 13th.
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2800
美国大都排在第 12 到 13 之间。
10:31
The difference between these two countries
223
619400
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这两个国家的差别
不在它们的富有程度，
10:33
is not their wealth
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1256
也不在科技是否发达，
10:34
and it's not their technology.
225
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1736
而是它们的制度。
10:36
It's their institutions.
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1320
10:38
Norway has invested to build a society
227
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3176
挪威长期来致力于
建立一个充满机会与
经济流动性的社会。
经济流动性的社会。
10:41
with opportunity and economic mobility.
228
629760
3336
虽然沙特阿拉伯的
生活水平已经有提升，
生活水平已经有提升，
10:45
Saudi Arabia has raised living standards
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2176
但公民的很多其它
人性需求仍饱受压抑。
人性需求仍饱受压抑。
10:47
while frustrating
many other human strivings.
many other human strivings.
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两个国家都很富有，
10:50
Two countries, both wealthy,
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2776
但人民的幸福水平却存在明显差距。
10:53
not equally well off.
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1720
10:55
And this brings me
to the challenge that we face today,
to the challenge that we face today,
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接下来，我要来谈谈
我们目前所面临的挑战，
我们目前所面临的挑战，
自动化给我们所带来的挑战。
11:00
the challenge that
automation poses for us.
automation poses for us.
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2136
11:02
The challenge is not
that we're running out of work.
that we're running out of work.
235
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2456
这挑战不是因为工作的短缺。
美国自金融海啸以来
11:04
The US has added 14 million jobs
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652880
1936
已经增加了1400万个就业机会。
11:06
since the depths of the Great Recession.
237
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2136
11:09
The challenge is that many of those jobs
238
657000
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问题是这些工作中很多
都不是好的工作，
11:11
are not good jobs,
239
659560
1296
11:12
and many citizens
cannot qualify for the good jobs
cannot qualify for the good jobs
240
660880
3096
然而很多公民无法胜任
那些被创造出来的
那些被创造出来的
11:16
that are being created.
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664000
1200
好的工作。
11:17
Employment growth in the United States
and in much of the developed world
and in much of the developed world
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665840
3496
美国以及其它
发达国家的就业增长
发达国家的就业增长
就像一个杠铃，
11:21
looks something like a barbell
243
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1456
11:22
with increasing poundage
on either end of the bar.
on either end of the bar.
244
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3376
在横杠的两端都在增重。
一方面，
11:26
On the one hand,
245
674240
1216
有学历高薪酬高的工作，
11:27
you have high-education, high-wage jobs
246
675480
2816
11:30
like doctors and nurses,
programmers and engineers,
programmers and engineers,
247
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3576
比如说医生和护士，
程序员和工程师，
程序员和工程师，
11:33
marketing and sales managers.
248
681920
1736
市场营销经理。
11:35
Employment is robust in these jobs,
employment growth.
employment growth.
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3016
在这些行业中就业率还在持续增长。
11:38
Similarly, employment growth
is robust in many low-skill,
is robust in many low-skill,
250
686720
4016
同样的，低学历低收入的工作
就业率也在增长，
就业率也在增长，
11:42
low-education jobs like food service,
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比如餐饮服务业，
清洁，安保，
11:45
cleaning, security,
252
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2256
家庭健康护理。
11:48
home health aids.
253
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1240
11:50
Simultaneously, employment is shrinking
254
698080
3096
与此同时，失业率也在
11:53
in many middle-education,
middle-wage, middle-class jobs,
middle-wage, middle-class jobs,
255
701200
4056
许多中等教育，中等收入，
中产阶级中不断下降，
中产阶级中不断下降，
11:57
like blue-collar production
and operative positions
and operative positions
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705280
3816
比如说蓝领工人和运营岗位，
12:01
and white-collar
clerical and sales positions.
clerical and sales positions.
257
709120
2976
办公室白领和销售岗位。
12:04
The reasons behind this contracting middle
258
712120
2256
中产阶级规模缩小的背后原因
12:06
are not mysterious.
259
714400
1216
并不是什么不解之谜。
12:07
Many of those middle-skill jobs
260
715640
1976
许多这些中等难度的职位
12:09
use well-understood rules and procedures
261
717640
2496
都遵循着简洁明了的规则和制度，
12:12
that can increasingly
be codified in software
be codified in software
262
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3096
它们可以被编入程序，
12:15
and executed by computers.
263
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2360
并交由电脑执行。
12:18
The challenge that
this phenomenon creates,
this phenomenon creates,
264
726200
3376
这个现象所带来的挑战，
也就是经济学家所说的就业两极化，
12:21
what economists call
employment polarization,
employment polarization,
265
729600
2536
就像少了支撑的梯子，
12:24
is that it knocks out rungs
in the economic ladder,
in the economic ladder,
266
732160
2616
12:26
shrinks the size of the middle class
267
734800
1816
使中产阶级的规模缩小
12:28
and threatens to make us
a more stratified society.
a more stratified society.
268
736640
3136
并加剧社会分层。
一方面，一群受过高等教育，
收入丰厚的就业者
收入丰厚的就业者
12:31
On the one hand, a set of highly paid,
highly educated professionals
highly educated professionals
269
739800
4056
做着有趣的工作，
12:35
doing interesting work,
270
743880
1416
12:37
on the other, a large number
of citizens in low-paid jobs
of citizens in low-paid jobs
271
745320
3416
另一方面，一大群收入很低的公民，
12:40
whose primary responsibility is to see
to the comfort and health of the affluent.
to the comfort and health of the affluent.
272
748760
5656
他们的责任是保证
富足所带来的舒适和健康。
富足所带来的舒适和健康。
12:46
That is not my vision of progress,
273
754440
2336
这并不是我眼中的进步，
12:48
and I doubt that it is yours.
274
756800
1880
可能也不是你们的。
12:51
But here is some encouraging news.
275
759440
2016
但也有一些比较令人振奋的消息。
12:53
We have faced equally momentous
economic transformations in the past,
economic transformations in the past,
276
761480
4856
我们已经经历了同样
具有重大意义的经济改革，
具有重大意义的经济改革，
12:58
and we have come
through them successfully.
through them successfully.
277
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2696
并取得了成功。
在19世纪末20世纪初，
13:01
In the late 1800s and early 1900s,
278
769080
4936
当自动化设备消除了大量人工农业劳动——
13:06
when automation was eliminating
vast numbers of agricultural jobs --
vast numbers of agricultural jobs --
279
774040
4536
记得拖拉机吗——
13:10
remember that tractor? --
280
778600
2336
13:12
the farm states faced a threat
of mass unemployment,
of mass unemployment,
281
780960
2696
农场面临着失业率的上升
13:15
a generation of youth
no longer needed on the farm
no longer needed on the farm
282
783680
3816
一代人年轻人
不再需要在农场上工作了，
不再需要在农场上工作了，
13:19
but not prepared for industry.
283
787520
1760
但他们并没有为工业化做好准备。
13:22
Rising to this challenge,
284
790080
1576
面对挑战，
13:23
they took the radical step
285
791680
1496
他们迈出了巨大的一步，
要求那一代的青年在学校读书，
13:25
of requiring that
their entire youth population
their entire youth population
286
793200
2816
13:28
remain in school
and continue their education
and continue their education
287
796040
2856
继续他们的教育，
直到16岁达到心智成熟。
13:30
to the ripe old age of 16.
288
798920
2120
13:33
This was called the high school movement,
289
801600
1976
这被叫做高中运动，
13:35
and it was a radically
expensive thing to do.
expensive thing to do.
290
803600
2816
其代价不菲。
13:38
Not only did they have
to invest in the schools,
to invest in the schools,
291
806440
2256
人们不仅要投资学校，
孩子们还不能打工。
13:40
but those kids couldn't work
at their jobs.
at their jobs.
292
808720
2696
13:43
It also turned out to be
one of the best investments
one of the best investments
293
811440
3296
从效果来看，这是20世纪
13:46
the US made in the 20th century.
294
814760
2216
美国人做的最好的投资。
13:49
It gave us the most skilled,
the most flexible
the most flexible
295
817000
2336
它带给了我们全世界最有技术，最灵活，
13:51
and the most productive
workforce in the world.
workforce in the world.
296
819360
2696
也最高效的劳动力。
13:54
To see how well this worked,
imagine taking the labor force of 1899
imagine taking the labor force of 1899
297
822080
4536
如果要看这些变革所带来的好处，
我们可以想像把1899年的劳动力
我们可以想像把1899年的劳动力
13:58
and bringing them into the present.
298
826640
2216
带到现在。
14:00
Despite their strong backs
and good characters,
and good characters,
299
828880
2936
尽管这些人身体强壮，品格也很好，
14:03
many of them would lack
the basic literacy and numeracy skills
the basic literacy and numeracy skills
300
831840
3776
但他们缺乏基本的识字与算数能力，
14:07
to do all but the most mundane jobs.
301
835640
2936
只能做最简单的日常工作。
14:10
Many of them would be unemployable.
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他们中很多人会失业。
14:13
What this example highlights
is the primacy of our institutions,
is the primacy of our institutions,
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这些例子说明了教育机构的重要性，
14:17
most especially our schools,
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特别是我们的学校，
让我们获取了
14:19
in allowing us to reap the harvest
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科技繁荣所带来的成果。
14:21
of our technological prosperity.
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14:24
It's foolish to say
there's nothing to worry about.
there's nothing to worry about.
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说不用担心，难免有些夜郎自大。
我们千万别误会了。
14:26
Clearly we can get this wrong.
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14:29
If the US had not invested
in its schools and in its skills
in its schools and in its skills
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如果美国政府在一世纪前的
高中教育改革运动中
高中教育改革运动中
14:33
a century ago with
the high school movement,
the high school movement,
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没有投资学校和技术，
生活可能就不会这么富足和便利，
14:35
we would be a less prosperous,
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14:37
a less mobile and probably
a lot less happy society.
a lot less happy society.
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社会的幸福感可能也会大大地减少。
14:40
But it's equally foolish
to say that our fates are sealed.
to say that our fates are sealed.
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但说这一切都是命中注定，
也是同样并不明智。
也是同样并不明智。
我们的命运并不是由机械决定，
14:43
That's not decided by the machines.
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甚至不是由市场决定。
14:45
It's not even decided by the market.
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这取决于我们自己以及我们的机构。
14:47
It's decided by us
and by our institutions.
and by our institutions.
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14:50
Now, I started this talk with a paradox.
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现在，我想谈谈一个矛盾的现象。
14:52
Our machines increasingly
do our work for us.
do our work for us.
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机械不断地取代我们的工作。
为什么我们的劳工没有过剩，
14:55
Why doesn't that make
our labor superfluous,
our labor superfluous,
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技术没有被淘汰掉？
14:57
our skills redundant?
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我们伟大的发明将我们的
经济与社会推入了地狱之门，
经济与社会推入了地狱之门，
14:59
Isn't it obvious that the road
to our economic and social hell
to our economic and social hell
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这一点不是很明显吗？
15:02
is paved with our own great inventions?
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15:06
History has repeatedly offered
an answer to that paradox.
an answer to that paradox.
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历史已经不止一次地为
这一矛盾的现象提供了答案。
这一矛盾的现象提供了答案。
答案的第一个部分就是：
科技放大了我们存在的功能性，
科技放大了我们存在的功能性，
15:10
The first part of the answer
is that technology magnifies our leverage,
is that technology magnifies our leverage,
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15:13
increases the importance, the added value
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增进了我们的重要性和价值，
15:16
of our expertise,
our judgment and our creativity.
our judgment and our creativity.
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使我们的专业判断与创造力得到提升。
这是O型环原则。
15:20
That's the O-ring.
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15:21
The second part of the answer
is our endless inventiveness
is our endless inventiveness
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答案的第二部分就是：
我们永无止境的发明
我们永无止境的发明
以及无穷的欲望，
15:24
and bottomless desires
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意味着我们永远不知足，
15:26
means that we never get enough,
never get enough.
never get enough.
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总是把精力投入到新鲜事物中。
15:28
There's always new work to do.
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15:31
Adjusting to the rapid pace
of technological change
of technological change
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适应快速的科技变化
创造出了真实的挑战，
15:35
creates real challenges,
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15:36
seen most clearly
in our polarized labor market
in our polarized labor market
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最明显的就是，
我们劳动市场的两极化，
我们劳动市场的两极化，
以及它为经济活跃度
所带来的威胁。
所带来的威胁。
15:39
and the threat that it poses
to economic mobility.
to economic mobility.
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15:43
Rising to this challenge is not automatic.
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迎接这一挑战并不是自然而然的，
15:46
It's not costless.
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它并非没有代价，
也不是轻而易举，
15:47
It's not easy.
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但是是可行的。
15:49
But it is feasible.
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15:51
And here is some encouraging news.
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这里有一些好消息。
15:52
Because of our amazing productivity,
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得益于惊人的生产力，
15:55
we're rich.
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我们变得富有了，
15:56
Of course we can afford
to invest in ourselves and in our children
to invest in ourselves and in our children
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我们当然可以负担起
投资我们自己和孩子，
投资我们自己和孩子，
15:59
as America did a hundred years ago
with the high school movement.
with the high school movement.
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就像美国一百年前的
高中教育改革运动一样。
高中教育改革运动一样。
16:02
Arguably, we can't afford not to.
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甚至可以说，我们无法承担不这么做的后果。
16:06
Now, you may be thinking,
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你可能在想，
16:07
Professor Autor has told us
a heartwarming tale
a heartwarming tale
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奥图教授已经告诉了我们一个
有关于久远的历史，
16:10
about the distant past,
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1776
16:12
the recent past,
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近代历史，
16:14
maybe the present,
but probably not the future.
but probably not the future.
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也许是当代的温暖的童话，
但可能并没有涉及到未来。
但可能并没有涉及到未来。
16:17
Because everybody knows
that this time is different.
that this time is different.
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因为大家都知道，
这次的情况是不一样的。
这次的情况是不一样的。
16:21
Right? Is this time different?
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2816
对吧？这次会不一样吗？
16:24
Of course this time is different.
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1896
当然不一样。
16:26
Every time is different.
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每次都不一样。
16:27
On numerous occasions
in the last 200 years,
in the last 200 years,
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在过去200年的无数场合中，
学者与社会运动者不断地警告我们
16:31
scholars and activists
have raised the alarm
have raised the alarm
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16:34
that we are running out of work
and making ourselves obsolete:
and making ourselves obsolete:
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工作要消失了，
我们会被自己淘汰掉，
我们会被自己淘汰掉，
16:37
for example, the Luddites
in the early 1800s;
in the early 1800s;
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例如，19世纪初的卢德份子
（英国参与捣毁机器的人）；
（英国参与捣毁机器的人）；
16:42
US Secretary of Labor James Davis
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20世纪20年代的美国劳工部长
詹姆士 · 戴维斯；
16:45
in the mid-1920s;
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993360
2416
1982年诺贝尔经济学家
瓦西里 · 列昂季耶夫；
瓦西里 · 列昂季耶夫；
16:47
Nobel Prize-winning economist
Wassily Leontief in 1982;
Wassily Leontief in 1982;
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5176
当然，还有很多学者、
16:53
and of course, many scholars,
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16:56
pundits, technologists
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评论员、科技家，
16:58
and media figures today.
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1840
还有今日的媒体明星。
17:01
These predictions strike me as arrogant.
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3320
这些人的预测在我看来似乎都很狂妄。
17:05
These self-proclaimed oracles
are in effect saying,
are in effect saying,
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这些自称圣贤的人像是在告诉我们，
17:08
"If I can't think of what people
will do for work in the future,
will do for work in the future,
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3416
“ 如果我都想像不到
人们未来可以做什么工作，
人们未来可以做什么工作，
17:11
then you, me and our kids
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那么你，我和我们的小孩
也都不会想像得到。”
17:14
aren't going to think of it either."
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1715
17:17
I don't have the guts
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1935
我没有胆量在公众面前
17:19
to take that bet against human ingenuity.
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3176
质疑人类的聪明才智。
17:22
Look, I can't tell you
what people are going to do for work
what people are going to do for work
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听着，我无法告诉你一百年后
17:25
a hundred years from now.
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1033920
1896
人类会从事什么工作。
17:27
But the future doesn't hinge
on my imagination.
on my imagination.
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2601
因为未来不是我说了算。
17:31
If I were a farmer in Iowa
in the year 1900,
in the year 1900,
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如果我是1900年爱荷华州的一位农夫，
有一位21世纪的经济学家
瞬间移动来到我的农场，
瞬间移动来到我的农场，
17:35
and an economist from the 21st century
teleported down to my field
teleported down to my field
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3537
17:38
and said, "Hey, guess what, farmer Autor,
377
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2520
跟我说，“嘿，奥图农夫，你知道吗？
17:42
in the next hundred years,
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接下来的几百年，
17:43
agricultural employment is going to fall
from 40 percent of all jobs
from 40 percent of all jobs
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3776
农业的从业人员将从40%
减少到2%，
17:47
to two percent
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17:48
purely due to rising productivity.
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2000
只因为生产力提升了。
17:51
What do you think the other
38 percent of workers are going to do?"
38 percent of workers are going to do?"
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3160
你觉得剩下38%的人
将来会做什么工作？ ”
将来会做什么工作？ ”
17:55
I would not have said, "Oh, we got this.
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我不可能会说，“哦，我们早就知道了，
17:58
We'll do app development,
radiological medicine,
radiological medicine,
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我们会开发应用软件，放射性药物，
瑜珈课程、手机表情符号软件。”
18:01
yoga instruction, Bitmoji."
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（观众笑声）
18:04
(Laughter)
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18:05
I wouldn't have had a clue.
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1286
我根本不会知道的。
18:07
But I hope I would have had
the wisdom to say,
the wisdom to say,
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但我希望我可以明智地说出，
18:10
"Wow, a 95 percent reduction
in farm employment
in farm employment
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“哇，农场工人减少了95%，
却没有造成食物短缺，
18:14
with no shortage of food.
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真的是一大进步啊！
18:16
That's an amazing amount of progress.
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18:19
I hope that humanity
finds something remarkable to do
finds something remarkable to do
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我希望人类繁荣后
能找到更有意义的事来做。”
18:22
with all of that prosperity."
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1880
18:25
And by and large, I would say that it has.
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总体来讲，我觉得我们已经在做了。
18:29
Thank you very much.
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非常感谢。
（观众掌声）
18:31
(Applause)
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
David Autor - EconomistDavid Autor's work assesses the labor market consequences of technological change and globalization.
Why you should listen
David Autor, one of the leading labor economists in the world and a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, is Ford Professor of Economics and associate department head of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Department of Economics. He is also Faculty Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research, Research Affiliate of the Abdul Jameel Latin Poverty Action Lab, Co-director of the MIT School Effectiveness and Inequality Initiative, Director of the NBER Disability Research Center and former editor in chief of the Journal of Economic Perspectives. He is an elected officer of the American Economic Association and the Society of Labor Economists and a fellow of the Econometric Society.
Autor's work focuses on earnings inequality, employment and feedback between labor market opportunities, household structure and the social/intellectual development of children. He has published extensively in many major academic journals in economics. His best known research formally models and empirically analyzes how computerization substitutes for and complements human labor; asks how the rapid rise of import competition from China has reshaped U.S. manufacturing, upending the conventional economic wisdom that free trade is a free lunch; explores how the economic pressures of globalization are reshaping U.S. electoral politics; and conducts large-scale randomized experiments that test whether generous financial aid grants improve the odds of college completion and long-run economic security of students from low income families.
Autor has received a number of prestigious prizes, the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation Fellowship, the National Science Foundation Career award, and the Sherwin Rosen Prize for outstanding contributions in the field of Labor Economics, and the John T. Dunlop Outstanding Scholar Award in 2006 given by the Labor and Employment Relations Association, to name just a few. His teaching has earned several awards, including MIT’s James A. and Ruth Levitan Award for excellence in teaching, the Undergraduate Economic Association Teaching Award, and the Technology and Public Policy Program’s Best Professor Award.
David Autor | Speaker | TED.com