TEDxCambridge
David Autor: Will automation take away all our jobs?
大衛．奧圖: 自動化即將讓我們失業嗎？
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有一件矛盾的事情，你可能從未聽過：過去一個世紀以來，儘管機械的發明，取代了我們很多的工作，但美國成年人的勞工就業比率在過去125年來卻不斷攀升。為什麼我們的勞工沒有過剩且技術沒有被淘汰呢？在這場有關於未來工作的談話中，經濟學家大衛．奧圖（David Autor）向我們解答為什麼仍有那麼多的工作岡位？並給出了一個令人驚訝又充滿希望的答案。
David Autor - Economist
David Autor's work assesses the labor market consequences of technological change and globalization. Full bio
David Autor's work assesses the labor market consequences of technological change and globalization. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
Here's a startling fact:
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有一個驚人的事實：
00:15
in the 45 years since the introduction
of the automated teller machine,
of the automated teller machine,
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45年前，自從自動提款機的引進——
00:18
those vending machines that dispense cash,
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就是那些會吐鈔票的販賣機，
00:21
the number of human bank tellers
employed in the United States
employed in the United States
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美國銀行櫃台的從業人數
00:24
has roughly doubled,
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增加了將近一倍，
00:26
from about a quarter of a million
to a half a million.
to a half a million.
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從25萬人增加到50萬人。
00:29
A quarter of a million in 1970
to about a half a million today,
to about a half a million today,
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從1970年的25萬人
成長到今日的50萬人，
成長到今日的50萬人，
00:32
with 100,000 added since the year 2000.
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其中10萬人，
是2000年以後增加出來的。
是2000年以後增加出來的。
00:36
These facts, revealed in a recent book
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這些事實，都詳細記載在
最近的一本書上，
最近的一本書上，
00:39
by Boston University
economist James Bessen,
economist James Bessen,
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作者是波斯頓大學的
經濟學家，詹姆士貝森，
經濟學家，詹姆士貝森，
00:42
raise an intriguing question:
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他提出了一個有趣的問題：
00:44
what are all those tellers doing,
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那麼多的銀行櫃台人員都在做什麼，
00:46
and why hasn't automation
eliminated their employment by now?
eliminated their employment by now?
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為什麼自動化服務
到現在還沒有讓他們失業？
到現在還沒有讓他們失業？
00:50
If you think about it,
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回想一下，
00:51
many of the great inventions
of the last 200 years
of the last 200 years
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過去 200 年來的偉大發明，
00:55
were designed to replace human labor.
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很多都是為了取代人力的。
00:58
Tractors were developed
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拖拉機的發明，
01:00
to substitute mechanical power
for human physical toil.
for human physical toil.
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就是為了利用機械的動力
取代辛苦的人工勞力。
取代辛苦的人工勞力。
01:04
Assembly lines were engineered
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工廠的組裝線，
01:07
to replace inconsistent human handiwork
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就是為了利用機械的穩定性，
01:10
with machine perfection.
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取代手工的不穩定性。
01:12
Computers were programmed to swap out
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電腦程式化就是為了
利用它完美無缺的數位計算能力
利用它完美無缺的數位計算能力
01:15
error-prone, inconsistent
human calculation
human calculation
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取代人力計算時易出錯、不一致的現象。
01:18
with digital perfection.
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@
01:20
These inventions have worked.
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這些發明都發揮了作用。
01:22
We no longer dig ditches by hand,
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我們再也不用徒手挖溝渠，
01:25
pound tools out of wrought iron
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不用手工鍛鐵製作工具，
01:27
or do bookkeeping using actual books.
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甚至記帳都不用實體帳本了。
01:30
And yet, the fraction of US adults
employed in the labor market
employed in the labor market
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但 2016 年，美國成年人的
01:35
is higher now in 2016
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勞工市場就業率
01:37
than it was 125 years ago, in 1890,
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竟比 125年 前的 1890 年還要高，
01:40
and it's risen in just about every decade
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而且在這 125 年間，
01:43
in the intervening 125 years.
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每 10 年都有成長。
01:46
This poses a paradox.
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這產生了一個矛盾現象。
01:48
Our machines increasingly
do our work for us.
do our work for us.
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機械不斷地取代掉我們的工作，
01:51
Why doesn't this make our labor redundant
and our skills obsolete?
and our skills obsolete?
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但為什麼我們的勞工沒有過剩且
技術沒有被淘汰呢？
技術沒有被淘汰呢？
01:56
Why are there still so many jobs?
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為什麼還是有那麼多的工作岡位？
01:59
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
02:01
I'm going to try to answer
that question tonight,
that question tonight,
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今晚，我會試著回答這些問題，
02:03
and along the way, I'm going to tell you
what this means for the future of work
what this means for the future of work
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並說明這對我們未來的工作
有甚麼意義，
有甚麼意義，
02:07
and the challenges that automation
does and does not pose
does and does not pose
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以及自動化對我們社會
所帶來的衝擊和無法撼動的地方。
02:11
for our society.
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02:14
Why are there so many jobs?
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為什麼有這麼多的工作崗位？
02:17
There are actually two fundamental
economic principles at stake.
economic principles at stake.
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這實際上涉及到兩個
經濟學的基本原則。
經濟學的基本原則。
02:21
One has to do with human genius
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一個是與人類的聰明才智
02:23
and creativity.
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及創造力有關。
02:25
The other has to do
with human insatiability,
with human insatiability,
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另一個與人類貪得無厭的天性有關，
02:28
or greed, if you like.
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或者你可以叫它做「貪婪」。
02:29
I'm going to call the first of these
the O-ring principle,
the O-ring principle,
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我先從 O 型環原則談起，
02:32
and it determines
the type of work that we do.
the type of work that we do.
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這個原則決定了我們工作的類型。
02:34
The second principle
is the never-get-enough principle,
is the never-get-enough principle,
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第二個原則是 「永不知足 」原則，
02:37
and it determines how many jobs
there actually are.
there actually are.
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它決定了實際存在的
工作崗位會有多少個。
工作崗位會有多少個。
02:41
Let's start with the O-ring.
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我們先從O型環開始。
02:43
ATMs, automated teller machines,
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ATM，自動提款機，
02:46
had two countervailing effects
on bank teller employment.
on bank teller employment.
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它給銀行櫃台人員的就業機會
帶來了兩種不同的作用。
帶來了兩種不同的作用。
02:49
As you would expect,
they replaced a lot of teller tasks.
they replaced a lot of teller tasks.
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各位都知道，ATM取代了很多
櫃台人員的工作。
櫃台人員的工作。
02:52
The number of tellers per branch
fell by about a third.
fell by about a third.
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每家分行的櫃台人員
數量大約減少了三分之一。
數量大約減少了三分之一。
02:56
But banks quickly discovered that it
also was cheaper to open new branches,
also was cheaper to open new branches,
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但很快銀行就發現
設置新分行的成本變便宜了。
設置新分行的成本變便宜了。
03:00
and the number of bank branches
increased by about 40 percent
increased by about 40 percent
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同期內，分行的數量
03:03
in the same time period.
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成長了將近 40% 。
03:04
The net result was more branches
and more tellers.
and more tellers.
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結果就是，分行越多，櫃台人員越多。
03:09
But those tellers were doing
somewhat different work.
somewhat different work.
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但這些銀行職員做的工作
與之前有點不同。
與之前有點不同。
03:12
As their routine,
cash-handling tasks receded,
cash-handling tasks receded,
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隨著他們常規的現金業務減少，
03:16
they became less like checkout clerks
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他們變得不太像出納人員
03:18
and more like salespeople,
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反而更像是個推銷人員，
03:20
forging relationships with customers,
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需要與客戶培養感情，
03:22
solving problems
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幫他們解決問題，
03:23
and introducing them to new products
like credit cards, loans and investments:
like credit cards, loans and investments:
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並推銷他們新產品，
像是信用卡、貸款、投資型產品：
像是信用卡、貸款、投資型產品：
03:28
more tellers doing
a more cognitively demanding job.
a more cognitively demanding job.
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更多的銀行職員從事著
對腦力認知需求很高的工作。
對腦力認知需求很高的工作。
03:32
There's a general principle here.
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一個普遍的原則就是，
03:35
Most of the work that we do
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我們從事的工作，
03:36
requires a multiplicity of skills,
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大都需要多樣化的技能，
03:41
and brains and brawn,
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既要腦力又要體力，
03:44
technical expertise and intuitive mastery,
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既要求專業素養又要敏銳的直覺，
03:48
perspiration and inspiration
in the words of Thomas Edison.
in the words of Thomas Edison.
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用愛迪生的話來說，就是天才加勤奮。
03:51
In general, automating
some subset of those tasks
some subset of those tasks
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總的來說，其中一些工作自動化了，
03:54
doesn't make the other ones unnecessary.
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但不代表其它的工作就不必要。
03:57
In fact, it makes them more important.
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事實上，反而變得更重要，
04:01
It increases their economic value.
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自動化反而增加了他們的經濟價值。
04:03
Let me give you a stark example.
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我來舉一個明顯的例子。
04:05
In 1986, the space shuttle Challenger
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1986年，挑戰者號太空船
04:08
exploded and crashed back down to Earth
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在起飛不到兩分鐘，
04:11
less than two minutes after takeoff.
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失事爆炸，墜毀在地表上。
04:13
The cause of that crash, it turned out,
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事後發現，肇事的原因，
04:16
was an inexpensive rubber O-ring
in the booster rocket
in the booster rocket
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原來是推進火箭上
一個不起眼的 O 型環，
一個不起眼的 O 型環，
04:20
that had frozen on the launchpad
the night before
the night before
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前一天晚上在發射台上凍僵了，
04:23
and failed catastrophically
moments after takeoff.
moments after takeoff.
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在發射不久後失效，引發了悲劇。
04:26
In this multibillion dollar enterprise
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這個耗資十幾億美金的巨大工程，
04:29
that simple rubber O-ring
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結果是一個不起眼的 O 型環
04:31
made the difference
between mission success
between mission success
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決定了，是發射成功
還是失敗造成七位太空人的死亡悲劇。
04:33
and the calamitous death
of seven astronauts.
of seven astronauts.
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04:37
An ingenious metaphor
for this tragic setting
for this tragic setting
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這場悲劇催生了一個巧妙的比喻——
04:41
is the O-ring production function,
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《O型環經濟理論》，
04:43
named by Harvard economist Michael Kremer
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由哈佛經濟學家麥可克雷姆
04:46
after the Challenger disaster.
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在挑戰者號失事後所命名。
04:48
The O-ring production function
conceives of the work
conceives of the work
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《O型環經濟理論》指出，一項工作的誕生
04:50
as a series of interlocking steps,
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是由一系列互相連結的步驟
所組成的鏈，
04:53
links in a chain.
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04:54
Every one of those links must hold
for the mission to succeed.
for the mission to succeed.
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每一處連結都必須牢固
才能保證任務的成功。
才能保證任務的成功。
04:58
If any of them fails,
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一旦有任何環節出問題，
05:00
the mission, or the product
or the service,
or the service,
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該任務、產品或服務
05:03
comes crashing down.
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就會失敗。
05:05
This precarious situation
has a surprisingly positive implication,
has a surprisingly positive implication,
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這種不確定的緊張情況，
有著一種令人驚嘆的積極影響，
有著一種令人驚嘆的積極影響，
05:10
which is that improvements
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因為它可以改善
05:12
in the reliability
of any one link in the chain
of any one link in the chain
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過程中任一環節的可靠性，
05:15
increases the value
of improving any of the other links.
of improving any of the other links.
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並對其它環節的改善，
起了價值增加的作用。
起了價值增加的作用。
05:19
Concretely, if most of the links
are brittle and prone to breakage,
are brittle and prone to breakage,
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具體來說，如果大多數的連結
都很脆弱且很容易壞，
都很脆弱且很容易壞，
05:24
the fact that your link
is not that reliable
is not that reliable
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那麼每個環節的可靠與否，
05:26
is not that important.
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就顯得不那麼重要了。
05:28
Probably something else will break anyway.
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反正很有可能其它的東西也會壞掉。
05:30
But as all the other links
become robust and reliable,
become robust and reliable,
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但一旦其它的環節變得相形穩固可靠時，
05:34
the importance of your link
becomes more essential.
becomes more essential.
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每一個環節就變得很重要了。
05:37
In the limit, everything depends upon it.
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到了一個極限，
每一個環節都是勝敗的關鍵。
每一個環節都是勝敗的關鍵。
05:40
The reason the O-ring was critical
to space shuttle Challenger
to space shuttle Challenger
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O型環對挑戰者號很重要的原因，
05:44
is because everything else
worked perfectly.
worked perfectly.
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是因為其它環節都運作地很完美。
05:47
If the Challenger were
kind of the space era equivalent
kind of the space era equivalent
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如果挑戰者號的太空設備
05:50
of Microsoft Windows 2000 --
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類似Widows 2000作業系統——
05:52
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
05:54
the reliability of the O-ring
wouldn't have mattered
wouldn't have mattered
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O型環的可靠性就不那麼重要了，
05:57
because the machine would have crashed.
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因為機械會直接當機。
05:59
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
06:01
Here's the broader point.
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這裡有個更宏觀的觀點，
06:03
In much of the work that we do,
we are the O-rings.
we are the O-rings.
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人類所扮演的角色就像O型環。
06:07
Yes, ATMs could do
certain cash-handling tasks
certain cash-handling tasks
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沒錯，ATM是可以作一些現金交易的任務，
06:10
faster and better than tellers,
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速度也比櫃台人員快，
06:14
but that didn't make tellers superfluous.
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但卻無法完全取代櫃台人員。
06:16
It increased the importance
of their problem-solving skills
of their problem-solving skills
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因為他們的問題解決能力，
06:19
and their relationships with customers.
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及他們維持客戶關係的能力，
增加了他們的重要性。
增加了他們的重要性。
06:22
The same principle applies
if we're building a building,
if we're building a building,
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同樣的原則也適用於蓋房子、
06:25
if we're diagnosing
and caring for a patient,
and caring for a patient,
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診斷及照顧病人、
06:27
or if we are teaching a class
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或者在教室裡
06:31
to a roomful of high schoolers.
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向一整間的高中生教課。
06:33
As our tools improve,
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一旦我們的工具改進了，
06:35
technology magnifies our leverage
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科技反而放大了我們的引響力，
06:38
and increases the importance
of our expertise
of our expertise
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提高了我們專業度、
06:42
and our judgment and our creativity.
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判斷力及創造力的重要性。
06:45
And that brings me
to the second principle:
to the second principle:
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講到這，帶出了第二原則：
06:48
never get enough.
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永不知足。
06:50
You may be thinking, OK, O-ring, got it,
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你可能會想，好，O型環理論，我懂了，
06:52
that says the jobs that people do
will be important.
will be important.
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人類所從事的工作將會很重要。
06:55
They can't be done by machines,
but they still need to be done.
but they still need to be done.
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這些任務無法由機械完成，
但又不能不做。
但又不能不做。
06:58
But that doesn't tell me
how many jobs there will need to be.
how many jobs there will need to be.
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但這無法說明，我們還需要多少工作。
07:01
If you think about it,
isn't it kind of self-evident
isn't it kind of self-evident
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如果你仔細想想，
這有點無法自圓其說，
這有點無法自圓其說，
07:04
that once we get sufficiently
productive at something,
productive at something,
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一旦我們對某樣東西有了足夠的生產力，
07:06
we've basically
worked our way out of a job?
worked our way out of a job?
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我們基本上不就會自動失業了嗎？
07:08
In 1900, 40 percent of all US employment
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1900年，40%的美國就業人口，
07:11
was on farms.
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從事的工作都是農業。
07:13
Today, it's less than two percent.
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如今，農業人口比例已經少於2%
07:15
Why are there so few farmers today?
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為什麼農夫會變得這麼少？
07:17
It's not because we're eating less.
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不是因為我們吃得少。
07:19
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
07:22
A century of productivity
growth in farming
growth in farming
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百年來農業生產力的成長，
07:24
means that now,
a couple of million farmers
a couple of million farmers
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讓我們現在只需200萬個農夫，
07:27
can feed a nation of 320 million.
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就能養活全國的3.2億人口。
07:29
That's amazing progress,
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這真的是個很大的進步，
07:31
but it also means there are
only so many O-ring jobs left in farming.
only so many O-ring jobs left in farming.
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但這也意味著農產業中，類似O型環的工作
也有相對等的增長。
也有相對等的增長。
07:35
So clearly, technology can eliminate jobs.
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所以很明顯地，科技會消彌掉工作機會。
07:38
Farming is only one example.
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農業只是其中一個案例。
07:40
There are many others like it.
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還有很多類似的案例。
07:43
But what's true about a single product
or service or industry
or service or industry
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但事實是，一個單一產品、服務
或產業的表現，
或產業的表現，
07:47
has never been true
about the economy as a whole.
about the economy as a whole.
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不能代表總體經濟的實質表現。
07:50
Many of the industries
in which we now work --
in which we now work --
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很多我們現在從事的產業——
07:52
health and medicine,
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健康、醫療、
07:54
finance and insurance,
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理財、保險、
07:57
electronics and computing --
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電子、電腦——
07:59
were tiny or barely existent
a century ago.
a century ago.
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在上一世紀僅有少數人在從業
或根本還不存在。
或根本還不存在。
08:02
Many of the products
that we spend a lot of our money on --
that we spend a lot of our money on --
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很多我們花很多錢消費的產品——
08:05
air conditioners, sport utility vehicles,
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空調、運動用交通工具、
08:07
computers and mobile devices --
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電腦、手機設備——
08:09
were unattainably expensive,
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這些在上一世紀，不是貴得要死，
08:10
or just hadn't been invented
a century ago.
a century ago.
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不然就是還沒有被發明出來。
08:13
As automation frees our time,
increases the scope of what is possible,
increases the scope of what is possible,
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當自動化騰出了我們的空閒時間，
增進了各個領域的可能性，
增進了各個領域的可能性，
08:18
we invent new products,
new ideas, new services
new ideas, new services
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我們就會發明新產品，新想法、
產生新的服務，
產生新的服務，
08:22
that command our attention,
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來控制我們的注意力、
08:23
occupy our time
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占據我們的時間，
08:25
and spur consumption.
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並刺激消費。
08:27
You may think some
of these things are frivolous --
of these things are frivolous --
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你可能會想有些東西真的是多餘的——
08:31
extreme yoga, adventure tourism,
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極限瑜珈、冒險旅遊、
08:33
Pokémon GO --
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口袋怪獸——
08:35
and I might agree with you.
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我都同意。
08:36
But people desire these things,
and they're willing to work hard for them.
and they're willing to work hard for them.
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但人們就是喜歡這些東西，
而且很願意在它們身上付出心力。
而且很願意在它們身上付出心力。
08:40
The average worker in 2015
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2015年的一般勞動階層，
08:42
wanting to attain
the average living standard in 1915
the average living standard in 1915
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如果想獲得1915年的一般生活水準，
08:46
could do so by working
just 17 weeks a year,
just 17 weeks a year,
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只要每年工作17周就可達到，
08:50
one third of the time.
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只要三分之一的時間。
08:52
But most people don't choose to do that.
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但大部分的人不會那樣做。
08:54
They are willing to work hard
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他們寧願選擇努力工作
08:56
to harvest the technological bounty
that is available to them.
that is available to them.
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來賺取科技所帶給他們的精神食糧。
09:00
Material abundance has never
eliminated perceived scarcity.
eliminated perceived scarcity.
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豐富的物質永遠消除不了內心的空虛。
09:04
In the words of economist
Thorstein Veblen,
Thorstein Veblen,
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套一句經濟學家托斯丹范伯倫說的話：
09:07
invention is the mother of necessity.
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「發明是需求之母 」。
09:11
Now ...
191
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現在....
09:13
So if you accept these two principles,
192
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1856
如果你同意上述的兩個觀點，
09:15
the O-ring principle
and the never-get-enough principle,
and the never-get-enough principle,
193
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O型環原則以及永不知足原則，
09:18
then you agree with me.
194
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那你就會認同我說的，
09:19
There will be jobs.
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一定會有工作岡位產生。
09:21
Does that mean there's
nothing to worry about?
nothing to worry about?
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那是否意味著都不用煩惱了呢？
09:23
Automation, employment, robots and jobs --
197
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2776
自動化、就業機會、機器人和工作——
09:26
it'll all take care of itself?
198
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它們自己會自動幫我們安排好？
09:29
No.
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不。
09:30
That is not my argument.
200
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這不是我的論點。
09:32
Automation creates wealth
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自動化為我們帶來了財富，
09:35
by allowing us to do
more work in less time.
more work in less time.
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讓我們可以用更少的時間做更多的事。
09:37
There is no economic law
203
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沒有經濟規則說，
09:39
that says that we
will use that wealth well,
will use that wealth well,
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我們會好好地善用自動化所帶來的財富，
09:42
and that is worth worrying about.
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1800
這的確值得我們擔心。
09:44
Consider two countries,
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1816
想想這兩個國家，
09:46
Norway and Saudi Arabia.
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2136
挪威和沙烏地阿拉伯。
09:48
Both oil-rich nations,
208
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1576
兩個國家都有豐盛的石油，
09:50
it's like they have money
spurting out of a hole in the ground.
spurting out of a hole in the ground.
209
578400
3576
他們的錢好像是直接從
地底下的洞口噴上來的。
地底下的洞口噴上來的。
09:54
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
09:55
But they haven't used that wealth
equally well to foster human prosperity,
equally well to foster human prosperity,
211
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5216
但兩個國家利用這筆財富
幫助人民繁榮、
幫助人民繁榮、
幫助人民成功的方式卻不相同。
10:00
human prospering.
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10:02
Norway is a thriving democracy.
213
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2736
挪威是個欣欣向榮的民主國家。
10:05
By and large, its citizens
work and play well together.
work and play well together.
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總體而言，它的人民都過很舒服。
10:08
It's typically numbered
between first and fourth
between first and fourth
215
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3016
國家人民的幸福指數排名，
10:11
in rankings of national happiness.
216
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2736
基本上都在第一到第四之間徘徊。
10:14
Saudi Arabia is an absolute monarchy
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而沙烏地阿拉伯卻是個
君主專制的國家，
君主專制的國家，
10:17
in which many citizens
lack a path for personal advancement.
lack a path for personal advancement.
218
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3616
很多人民的生活水平，
都沒有機會可以獲得改善。
都沒有機會可以獲得改善。
10:21
It's typically ranked 35th
among nations in happiness,
among nations in happiness,
219
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國家人民的幸福指數，
全球排名基本上都落在第35名左右，
全球排名基本上都落在第35名左右，
10:24
which is low for such a wealthy nation.
220
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這麼有錢的國家，排名竟這麼落後。
10:26
Just by way of comparison,
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相對來說，
10:28
the US is typically ranked
around 12th or 13th.
around 12th or 13th.
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美國大都排在第12到第13之間。
10:31
The difference between these two countries
223
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這兩個國家的差別
10:33
is not their wealth
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不在他們有錢與否，
10:34
and it's not their technology.
225
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也不在科技是否發達。
10:36
It's their institutions.
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1320
而是他們的制度。
10:38
Norway has invested to build a society
227
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3176
挪威長期來致力於
建立一個充滿機會與經濟活躍的社會。
10:41
with opportunity and economic mobility.
228
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10:45
Saudi Arabia has raised living standards
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雖然沙烏地阿拉伯
的生活水平已經有提升，
的生活水平已經有提升，
10:47
while frustrating
many other human strivings.
many other human strivings.
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但人民仍飽受壓抑。
10:50
Two countries, both wealthy,
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2776
兩個國家都很有錢，
10:53
not equally well off.
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但人民卻有著不同的幸福。
10:55
And this brings me
to the challenge that we face today,
to the challenge that we face today,
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接下來，我要來談談
我們目前所面臨的挑戰，
我們目前所面臨的挑戰，
11:00
the challenge that
automation poses for us.
automation poses for us.
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2136
自動化給我們所帶來的挑戰。
11:02
The challenge is not
that we're running out of work.
that we're running out of work.
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這挑戰不是因為我們會沒有工作。
11:04
The US has added 14 million jobs
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美國自金融海嘯以來，
11:06
since the depths of the Great Recession.
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2136
已經增加了1400萬個就業機會。
11:09
The challenge is that many of those jobs
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我們的挑戰是，這些工作
11:11
are not good jobs,
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1296
都不是好工作，
11:12
and many citizens
cannot qualify for the good jobs
cannot qualify for the good jobs
240
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3096
因為很多人都不適任
目前已經創造出來的工作。
11:16
that are being created.
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664000
1200
11:17
Employment growth in the United States
and in much of the developed world
and in much of the developed world
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3496
美國以及其它已開發國家的就業環境，
11:21
looks something like a barbell
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1456
現在看起來像是個啞鈴，
11:22
with increasing poundage
on either end of the bar.
on either end of the bar.
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兩端都特別重。
11:26
On the one hand,
245
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其中一端，
11:27
you have high-education, high-wage jobs
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2816
這群人受高等教育、有高薪工作，
11:30
like doctors and nurses,
programmers and engineers,
programmers and engineers,
247
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3576
像是醫生、護士、程式設計師、工程師，
11:33
marketing and sales managers.
248
681920
1736
市場及銷售經理。
11:35
Employment is robust in these jobs,
employment growth.
employment growth.
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3016
這些工作的就業機會相當穩固，
就業機會會持續成長。
就業機會會持續成長。
11:38
Similarly, employment growth
is robust in many low-skill,
is robust in many low-skill,
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686720
4016
同樣地，技術含量低的就業機會成長也很穩固，
11:42
low-education jobs like food service,
251
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3056
低學歷工作像是餐廳服務生、
11:45
cleaning, security,
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2256
清潔、保全人員、
11:48
home health aids.
253
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1240
居家健康照顧。
11:50
Simultaneously, employment is shrinking
254
698080
3096
同時，有些就業機會也會萎縮：
11:53
in many middle-education,
middle-wage, middle-class jobs,
middle-wage, middle-class jobs,
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701200
4056
中等教育、中等收入、中產階級的工作，
11:57
like blue-collar production
and operative positions
and operative positions
256
705280
3816
像是藍領階級的生產工人及操作人員，
12:01
and white-collar
clerical and sales positions.
clerical and sales positions.
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709120
2976
白領階級的文書及銷售人員。
12:04
The reasons behind this contracting middle
258
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2256
這當中的背後原因
12:06
are not mysterious.
259
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1216
也不是甚麼多深奧的道理。
12:07
Many of those middle-skill jobs
260
715640
1976
很多這種中等技術的工作、
12:09
use well-understood rules and procedures
261
717640
2496
只要充分了解規則及步驟流程
12:12
that can increasingly
be codified in software
be codified in software
262
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3096
漸漸地都會被軟體
12:15
and executed by computers.
263
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2360
及電腦所取代。
12:18
The challenge that
this phenomenon creates,
this phenomenon creates,
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3376
這樣的挑戰造就了一些現象，
12:21
what economists call
employment polarization,
employment polarization,
265
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2536
也就是經濟學家所稱的「就業兩極化」，
12:24
is that it knocks out rungs
in the economic ladder,
in the economic ladder,
266
732160
2616
中間層的工作機會
12:26
shrinks the size of the middle class
267
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1816
以及中產階級都會逐漸消失，
12:28
and threatens to make us
a more stratified society.
a more stratified society.
268
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3136
並造成我們的社會更階級化。
12:31
On the one hand, a set of highly paid,
highly educated professionals
highly educated professionals
269
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4056
一邊是高薪、受高等教育的專業人士，
12:35
doing interesting work,
270
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1416
做的是有趣的工作，
12:37
on the other, a large number
of citizens in low-paid jobs
of citizens in low-paid jobs
271
745320
3416
而另一邊，大部分的人是從事低薪的工作，
12:40
whose primary responsibility is to see
to the comfort and health of the affluent.
to the comfort and health of the affluent.
272
748760
5656
他們只盼望舒適、
健康富裕的日子能趕緊到來。
健康富裕的日子能趕緊到來。
12:46
That is not my vision of progress,
273
754440
2336
這不是我希望的進步，
12:48
and I doubt that it is yours.
274
756800
1880
但我在想，各位都脫離不了這樣的趨勢。
12:51
But here is some encouraging news.
275
759440
2016
但還是有一些令人振奮的好消息。
12:53
We have faced equally momentous
economic transformations in the past,
economic transformations in the past,
276
761480
4856
我們過去面臨相當大的經濟轉型，
12:58
and we have come
through them successfully.
through them successfully.
277
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2696
而且我們都成功克服過來了。
13:01
In the late 1800s and early 1900s,
278
769080
4936
在19世紀末，20世紀初，
13:06
when automation was eliminating
vast numbers of agricultural jobs --
vast numbers of agricultural jobs --
279
774040
4536
當自動化取代掉大部分的農場工作——
13:10
remember that tractor? --
280
778600
2336
還記得拖拉機嗎？——
13:12
the farm states faced a threat
of mass unemployment,
of mass unemployment,
281
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2696
以農業為主的州
面臨了大量的失業威脅，
面臨了大量的失業威脅，
13:15
a generation of youth
no longer needed on the farm
no longer needed on the farm
282
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3816
農場不再需要年輕世代的人，
13:19
but not prepared for industry.
283
787520
1760
但這些年輕人還沒準備好
工業化即將帶來的衝擊。
工業化即將帶來的衝擊。
13:22
Rising to this challenge,
284
790080
1576
為了克服挑戰，
13:23
they took the radical step
285
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1496
政府做了一個重大的改革，
13:25
of requiring that
their entire youth population
their entire youth population
286
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2816
要求這些年輕人
13:28
remain in school
and continue their education
and continue their education
287
796040
2856
在16歲長大成人後，
13:30
to the ripe old age of 16.
288
798920
2120
繼續留在學校接受教育。
13:33
This was called the high school movement,
289
801600
1976
這就是美國的高中教育改革運動，
13:35
and it was a radically
expensive thing to do.
expensive thing to do.
290
803600
2816
這的確很花錢。
13:38
Not only did they have
to invest in the schools,
to invest in the schools,
291
806440
2256
因為這些孩子不僅要投入學校，
13:40
but those kids couldn't work
at their jobs.
at their jobs.
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而且還不能工作。
13:43
It also turned out to be
one of the best investments
one of the best investments
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但最後證明，這是美國在20世紀
13:46
the US made in the 20th century.
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做得最好的投資政策之一。
13:49
It gave us the most skilled,
the most flexible
the most flexible
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它讓我們學習到全世界最新、最靈活、
13:51
and the most productive
workforce in the world.
workforce in the world.
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最有生產力的技術。
13:54
To see how well this worked,
imagine taking the labor force of 1899
imagine taking the labor force of 1899
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如果要看這些變革所帶來的好處，
我們可以想像一下，把1899年的勞工運動
我們可以想像一下，把1899年的勞工運動
13:58
and bringing them into the present.
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帶回到目前的現實世界。
14:00
Despite their strong backs
and good characters,
and good characters,
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儘管這些人背部強壯，品格也很好，
14:03
many of them would lack
the basic literacy and numeracy skills
the basic literacy and numeracy skills
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但他們缺乏基本的識字與算數能力，
14:07
to do all but the most mundane jobs.
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連最簡單的日常工作都做不來。
14:10
Many of them would be unemployable.
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很多人都不夠格上工。
14:13
What this example highlights
is the primacy of our institutions,
is the primacy of our institutions,
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這個案例是要說明
我們卓越的機構，
我們卓越的機構，
14:17
most especially our schools,
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特別是我們的學校，
14:19
in allowing us to reap the harvest
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讓我們獲取了
14:21
of our technological prosperity.
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科技繁榮所帶來的成果。
14:24
It's foolish to say
there's nothing to worry about.
there's nothing to worry about.
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所以說不用擔心是騙人的。
14:26
Clearly we can get this wrong.
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我們千萬別誤會了。
14:29
If the US had not invested
in its schools and in its skills
in its schools and in its skills
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如果美國政府在一世紀前的
高中教育改革運動中，
高中教育改革運動中，
14:33
a century ago with
the high school movement,
the high school movement,
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沒有投資學校、沒有投資技術，
14:35
we would be a less prosperous,
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我們可能不會這麼繁榮、便利，
14:37
a less mobile and probably
a lot less happy society.
a lot less happy society.
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社會的幸福感可能也會大大地減少。
14:40
But it's equally foolish
to say that our fates are sealed.
to say that our fates are sealed.
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但說我們就是命中注定，
這樣說的人也沒多聰明，
這樣說的人也沒多聰明，
14:43
That's not decided by the machines.
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我們的命運並不是由機械決定，
14:45
It's not even decided by the market.
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也不是由市場決定。
14:47
It's decided by us
and by our institutions.
and by our institutions.
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這取決於我們自己及我們的機構。
14:50
Now, I started this talk with a paradox.
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我一開始就提到一個矛盾的現象。
14:52
Our machines increasingly
do our work for us.
do our work for us.
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機械不斷地取代掉我們的工作，
14:55
Why doesn't that make
our labor superfluous,
our labor superfluous,
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但為什麼我們的勞工沒有過剩，
14:57
our skills redundant?
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技術沒有被淘汰掉？
14:59
Isn't it obvious that the road
to our economic and social hell
to our economic and social hell
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這很明顯啊！我們偉大的發明，
15:02
is paved with our own great inventions?
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不就是害我們的經濟與
社會進入地獄之路的元兇嗎？
社會進入地獄之路的元兇嗎？
15:06
History has repeatedly offered
an answer to that paradox.
an answer to that paradox.
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歷史已經重複地為我們解答
這個矛盾現象好幾次了。
這個矛盾現象好幾次了。
15:10
The first part of the answer
is that technology magnifies our leverage,
is that technology magnifies our leverage,
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答案的第一個部分就是：
科技放大了我們存在的重要性，
科技放大了我們存在的重要性，
15:13
increases the importance, the added value
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增進了我們的價值，
15:16
of our expertise,
our judgment and our creativity.
our judgment and our creativity.
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使我們的專業、判斷與創造力更佳地提升。
15:20
That's the O-ring.
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這是O型環法則。
15:21
The second part of the answer
is our endless inventiveness
is our endless inventiveness
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答案的第二部分就是：
我們永無止境的發明
我們永無止境的發明
15:24
and bottomless desires
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以及無窮的慾望。
15:26
means that we never get enough,
never get enough.
never get enough.
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意思就是我們永遠不知足、永不知足。
15:28
There's always new work to do.
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總是有新事物要做。
15:31
Adjusting to the rapid pace
of technological change
of technological change
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適應快速的科技變化
創造出了真實的挑戰，
15:35
creates real challenges,
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15:36
seen most clearly
in our polarized labor market
in our polarized labor market
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最明顯地就是我們勞動市場的兩極化，
15:39
and the threat that it poses
to economic mobility.
to economic mobility.
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以及它為經濟活躍度所帶來的威脅。
15:43
Rising to this challenge is not automatic.
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這些挑戰不會自動地被克服。
15:46
It's not costless.
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它不便宜，
15:47
It's not easy.
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也不容易。
15:49
But it is feasible.
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但，是可以預見的。
15:51
And here is some encouraging news.
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這裡有一些好消息，
15:52
Because of our amazing productivity,
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因為我們驚人的生產力，
15:55
we're rich.
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我們變富有了。
15:56
Of course we can afford
to invest in ourselves and in our children
to invest in ourselves and in our children
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3136
當然我們已經負擔的起
投資我們自己、我們孩子的費用，
投資我們自己、我們孩子的費用，
15:59
as America did a hundred years ago
with the high school movement.
with the high school movement.
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就像美國一百年前的
高中教育改革運動一樣。
高中教育改革運動一樣。
16:02
Arguably, we can't afford not to.
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嚴格來講，我們不能說我們負擔不起。
16:06
Now, you may be thinking,
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你可能在想，
16:07
Professor Autor has told us
a heartwarming tale
a heartwarming tale
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奧圖教授已經告訴了我們一個
16:10
about the distant past,
348
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有關於好幾年前、
16:12
the recent past,
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最近幾年，
16:14
maybe the present,
but probably not the future.
but probably not the future.
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可能是現在，但不是未來的動人故事。
16:17
Because everybody knows
that this time is different.
that this time is different.
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3936
因為大家都知道這次不一樣了。
16:21
Right? Is this time different?
352
969280
2816
對吧？這次會不一樣嗎？
16:24
Of course this time is different.
353
972120
1896
當然不一樣。
16:26
Every time is different.
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974040
1696
每次都不一樣。
16:27
On numerous occasions
in the last 200 years,
in the last 200 years,
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3616
過去200年，在無數場合中，
16:31
scholars and activists
have raised the alarm
have raised the alarm
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979400
2776
學者與社會運動者不斷地警告我們，
16:34
that we are running out of work
and making ourselves obsolete:
and making ourselves obsolete:
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982200
3536
工作要消失了，
我們會被我們自己給淘汰掉：
我們會被我們自己給淘汰掉：
16:37
for example, the Luddites
in the early 1800s;
in the early 1800s;
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985760
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例如，19世紀初的盧德份子
（英國參加搗毀機器的人）；
（英國參加搗毀機器的人）；
16:42
US Secretary of Labor James Davis
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990400
2936
1920年中的美國勞工部長
16:45
in the mid-1920s;
360
993360
2416
詹姆士戴維斯；
16:47
Nobel Prize-winning economist
Wassily Leontief in 1982;
Wassily Leontief in 1982;
361
995800
5176
1982年諾貝爾經濟學家，
瓦西里·列昂季耶夫；
瓦西里·列昂季耶夫；
16:53
and of course, many scholars,
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1001000
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當然，還有很多學者、
16:56
pundits, technologists
363
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2136
評論員、科學家
16:58
and media figures today.
364
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1840
還有今日的媒體名嘴。
17:01
These predictions strike me as arrogant.
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3320
這些人的預測在我看來似乎都很狂妄。
17:05
These self-proclaimed oracles
are in effect saying,
are in effect saying,
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這些自稱聖賢的人，像是在告訴我們，
17:08
"If I can't think of what people
will do for work in the future,
will do for work in the future,
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1016520
3416
「如果我都想像不到
人們未來可以做什麼工作，
人們未來可以做什麼工作，
17:11
then you, me and our kids
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2896
那麼，你、我、我們的小孩
17:14
aren't going to think of it either."
369
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1715
也都不會想像到。」
17:17
I don't have the guts
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1935
我沒膽在公眾面前，對人類的聰明才智
17:19
to take that bet against human ingenuity.
371
1027720
3176
提出太多的質疑。
17:22
Look, I can't tell you
what people are going to do for work
what people are going to do for work
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2976
聽著，我無法告訴你一百年後
17:25
a hundred years from now.
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1033920
1896
人們要做什麼工作。
17:27
But the future doesn't hinge
on my imagination.
on my imagination.
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2601
因為未來不是我說了算。
17:31
If I were a farmer in Iowa
in the year 1900,
in the year 1900,
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3776
如果我是1900年愛荷華州的農夫，
17:35
and an economist from the 21st century
teleported down to my field
teleported down to my field
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如果有一位21世紀的經濟學家
瞬間移動來到我的農場，
瞬間移動來到我的農場，
17:38
and said, "Hey, guess what, farmer Autor,
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跟我說，「嘿，奧圖農夫，你知道嗎？
17:42
in the next hundred years,
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接下來的100年，
17:43
agricultural employment is going to fall
from 40 percent of all jobs
from 40 percent of all jobs
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3776
農業的從業人員將從40%減少到
17:47
to two percent
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剩2%，
17:48
purely due to rising productivity.
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2000
只因為生產力提升了。
17:51
What do you think the other
38 percent of workers are going to do?"
38 percent of workers are going to do?"
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3160
你覺得剩下38%的人
將來會做什麼工作？ 」
將來會做什麼工作？ 」
17:55
I would not have said, "Oh, we got this.
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2816
我不可能會說，「喔，我們早就知道了，
17:58
We'll do app development,
radiological medicine,
radiological medicine,
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2856
我們會開發app軟體、放射性藥物、
18:01
yoga instruction, Bitmoji."
385
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瑜珈課程、手機表情符號軟體Bitmoji」
18:04
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
18:05
I wouldn't have had a clue.
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1286
我根本不會知道的。
18:07
But I hope I would have had
the wisdom to say,
the wisdom to say,
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但我希望我可以智慧地說出，
18:10
"Wow, a 95 percent reduction
in farm employment
in farm employment
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「哇，少了95%的農場工人，
18:14
with no shortage of food.
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2136
卻沒有造成食物短缺，
18:16
That's an amazing amount of progress.
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真的是一大進步啊！
18:19
I hope that humanity
finds something remarkable to do
finds something remarkable to do
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我希望人類繁榮富有後，
18:22
with all of that prosperity."
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能找到更有意義的事來做。」
18:25
And by and large, I would say that it has.
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總體而言，我會說那是一定要的。
18:29
Thank you very much.
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非常感謝各位。
18:31
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
David Autor - EconomistDavid Autor's work assesses the labor market consequences of technological change and globalization.
Why you should listen
David Autor, one of the leading labor economists in the world and a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, is Ford Professor of Economics and associate department head of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Department of Economics. He is also Faculty Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research, Research Affiliate of the Abdul Jameel Latin Poverty Action Lab, Co-director of the MIT School Effectiveness and Inequality Initiative, Director of the NBER Disability Research Center and former editor in chief of the Journal of Economic Perspectives. He is an elected officer of the American Economic Association and the Society of Labor Economists and a fellow of the Econometric Society.
Autor's work focuses on earnings inequality, employment and feedback between labor market opportunities, household structure and the social/intellectual development of children. He has published extensively in many major academic journals in economics. His best known research formally models and empirically analyzes how computerization substitutes for and complements human labor; asks how the rapid rise of import competition from China has reshaped U.S. manufacturing, upending the conventional economic wisdom that free trade is a free lunch; explores how the economic pressures of globalization are reshaping U.S. electoral politics; and conducts large-scale randomized experiments that test whether generous financial aid grants improve the odds of college completion and long-run economic security of students from low income families.
Autor has received a number of prestigious prizes, the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation Fellowship, the National Science Foundation Career award, and the Sherwin Rosen Prize for outstanding contributions in the field of Labor Economics, and the John T. Dunlop Outstanding Scholar Award in 2006 given by the Labor and Employment Relations Association, to name just a few. His teaching has earned several awards, including MIT’s James A. and Ruth Levitan Award for excellence in teaching, the Undergraduate Economic Association Teaching Award, and the Technology and Public Policy Program’s Best Professor Award.
David Autor | Speaker | TED.com