Margaret Heffernan: The human skills we need in an unpredictable world
玛格丽特 · 赫弗南: 不可预知的世界里需要哪些人类技能
The former CEO of five businesses, Margaret Heffernan explores the all-too-human thought patterns -- like conflict avoidance and selective blindness -- that lead organizations and managers astray. Full bio
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of an American supermarket chain
的领导团队决定,
needed to get a lot more efficient.
transformation with zeal.
supervising meat, veg, bakery,
蔬菜、烘焙的管理,
got assigned a task, did it,
management on steroids,
to drop a box of eggs,
会在何时撞翻展示架,
was going to knock over a display,
to bring in coconuts the next day.
exactly what you're going to need.
or unexpected comes along --
is no longer your friend.
is becoming the norm.
are reluctant to predict anything
和预测人员不愿意预测
from being complicated
themselves regularly.
can make a disproportionate impact.
可能会产生巨大影响;
won't always suffice,
just keeps changing too fast.
“是的,会有另一次崩盘,
yes, there will be another crash,
where forest fires will break out,
哪里会有森林火灾,
are going to flood.
从生活必需品变成人人喊打的产品,
and bags and bottled water
将明星变成贱民、
他们会感到困惑:
and colleagues into outcasts:
so much forecasting,
我们的适应和应对能力。
our capacity to adapt and respond.
our guiding principle,
is really going to help us?
must we be sure to defend?
think a lot about just in time management,
开始考虑“以防万一”,
about just in case,
that are generally certain
for Epidemic Preparedness, CEPI.
流行病预防联盟,即 CEPI。
more epidemics in future,
for multiple diseases,
多种疾病开发疫苗,
which vaccines are going to work
哪种疫苗会起作用、
will never be used.
单一的技术解决方案。
on a single technological solution.
also depends hugely
相互了解和信任的人。
take time to develop,
when an epidemic breaks out.
建立关系、友谊、联盟,
friendships, alliances now
may never be used.
a waste of time, perhaps,
in financial services, too.
你也能看到稳健性思维。
much less capital
过于高效的做法
being too efficient with it,
so fragile in the first place.
looks and is inefficient.
看起来效率低,也确实效率低。
保护金融系统免受意外。
the financial system against surprises.
about climate change
multiple solutions,
have been working for years now,
and healthcare systems,
就算他们预测到了,
they have certain prediction,
这些信息可能就太晚了。
come too late.
to trade wars, and many countries do.
许多国家也是这样做的。
huge trading partner,
suddenly become unstable.
negotiating all these deals,
better defended against shocks.
能更好地抵御冲击。
adopted by small countries
the market muscle to call the shots,
永远不可能做主,
too many friends.
in one of these organizations
by the efficiency myth,
pretty much like the supermarket:
seven minutes on Wednesday,
(Jos de Blok)的人
exactly what they'll need,
to the nurses to decide?
the patients got better
患者反而恢复得更好了,
about his experiment,
哪个部分让他感到惊讶时,
you can know or predict
就能了解或预知的事情。”
or staring at a computer screen."
has proliferated across the Netherlands
it still starts with experiments,
它仍然从实验开始,
而且无法提前预测。
and unpredictably different.
to the fire service
the service is just too centralized.
you can figure out
but in England --
其实是在英格兰——
or one of the leading rugby teams,
是撒拉逊人 (Saracens)。
that all the physical training they do
和数据驱动训练
conditioning that they do
do exactly the same thing.
even in match season,
on a ski slope, right?
可能还是有点冒险的吧?
the players came back
of loyalty and solidarity.
面临令人难以置信的压力时,
under incredible pressure,
calls "poise" --
而不敢尝试这种方式。
to efficiency to try it.
沃吾 (Verve)的科技公司,
everything that moves,
量化了一切工作量,
that made any difference
她称之为“爱之周”的实验:
that she calls "Love Week":
has to look for really clever,
有益、富有想象力的事情,
more productive.
of resilience and strength.
的杂乱的、不可预测
these tremendous sources
dependence on technology,
what we could, can do ourselves,
而且能做的事情外包给机器去完成,
staring at digital medical records,
looking at their patients.
we're predicted and programmed to like,
或计划喜欢的人的时间越长,
who are different from ourselves.
the less compassion we have.
我们的同情心就会越少。
technologies attempt to do
of a predictable reality
infinitely surprising.
everything that counts.
the extremes of stress and turbulence
a number of chief executives
through existential crises,
on the brink of collapse.
gut-wrenching conversations.
都不禁潸然泪下。
the opposite of the gig economy."
“这与临时工性质完全相反。”
of young, rising executives,
that they know the future
of inventiveness and exploration --
以前从未见过的东西,
we've never seen before.
我们选择的任何未来。
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Margaret Heffernan - Management thinkerThe former CEO of five businesses, Margaret Heffernan explores the all-too-human thought patterns -- like conflict avoidance and selective blindness -- that lead organizations and managers astray.
Why you should listen
How do organizations think? In her book Willful Blindness, Margaret Heffernan examines why businesses and the people who run them often ignore the obvious -- with consequences as dire as the global financial crisis and Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster.
Heffernan began her career in television production, building a track record at the BBC before going on to run the film and television producer trade association IPPA. In the US, Heffernan became a serial entrepreneur and CEO in the wild early days of web business. She now blogs for the Huffington Post and BNET.com. Her latest book, Beyond Measure, a TED Books original, explores the small steps companies can make that lead to big changes in their culture.
Margaret Heffernan | Speaker | TED.com