ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Margaret Heffernan - Management thinker
The former CEO of five businesses, Margaret Heffernan explores the all-too-human thought patterns -- like conflict avoidance and selective blindness -- that lead organizations and managers astray.

Why you should listen

How do organizations think? In her book Willful Blindness, Margaret Heffernan examines why businesses and the people who run them often ignore the obvious -- with consequences as dire as the global financial crisis and Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster.

Heffernan began her career in television production, building a track record at the BBC before going on to run the film and television producer trade association IPPA. In the US, Heffernan became a serial entrepreneur and CEO in the wild early days of web business. She now blogs for the Huffington Post and BNET.com. Her latest book, Beyond Measure, a TED Books original, explores the small steps companies can make that lead to big changes in their culture.

More profile about the speaker
Margaret Heffernan | Speaker | TED.com
TEDSummit 2019

Margaret Heffernan: The human skills we need in an unpredictable world

玛格丽特 · 赫弗南: 不可预知的世界里需要哪些人类技能

Filmed:
2,773,555 views

作家和企业家玛格丽特 · 赫弗南(Margaret Heffernan)说,我们越依赖令我们高效的技术,我们就越难以应对意外事件。 她分享了为什么我们需要少一些技术、多一些不那么完美的人类技能 —— 想象力、谦逊、勇敢——来解决未来不可预测时代的商业、政府和生活中的问题。 “我们勇于创造以前从未见过的东西,” 她说, “也可以创造出我们选择的任何未来。”
- Management thinker
The former CEO of five businesses, Margaret Heffernan explores the all-too-human thought patterns -- like conflict avoidance and selective blindness -- that lead organizations and managers astray. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:12
Recently最近, the leadership领导 team球队
of an American美国 supermarket超级市场 chain
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最近,一个美国连锁超市
的领导团队决定,
00:16
decided决定 that their business商业
needed需要 to get a lot more efficient高效.
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他们的业务需大幅提高效率,
00:19
So they embraced拥抱 their digital数字
transformation转型 with zeal热情.
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所以,他们热情地接受了数字化转型,
00:24
Out went the teams球队
supervising监督 meat, veg蔬菜, bakery面包店,
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原先的团队对肉类、
蔬菜、烘焙的管理,
00:28
and in came来了 an algorithmic算法 task任务 allocator分配器.
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而今被一个任务分配算法取而代之。
00:32
Now, instead代替 of people working加工 together一起,
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现在,大家不再是一起工作,
00:35
each employee雇员 went, clocked主频 in,
got assigned分配 a task任务, did it,
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而是每个员工到公司打卡、领任务,
完成任务后,再回来领更多任务。
00:39
came来了 back for more.
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00:41
This was scientific科学
management管理 on steroids类固醇,
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这类似于对类固醇的科学管理,
将工作标准化后进行工作分配,
00:45
standardizing标准化 and allocating分配 work.
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00:47
It was super efficient高效.
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它非常高效。
00:50
Well, not quite相当,
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不过也不完全是,
00:53
because the task任务 allocator分配器 didn't know
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因为任务分配器不知道
客户何时会把一盒鸡蛋掉到地上,
00:55
when a customer顾客 was going
to drop下降 a box of eggs,
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也无法预测哪个皮孩子
会在何时撞翻展示架,
00:58
couldn't不能 predict预测 when some crazy kid孩子
was going to knock over a display显示,
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或者哪天当地高中
01:02
or when the local本地 high school学校 decided决定
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会决定第二天让每人带椰子去学校。
01:04
that everybody每个人 needed需要
to bring带来 in coconuts椰子 the next下一个 day.
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(笑声)
01:07
(Laughter笑声)
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01:08
Efficiency效率 works作品 really well
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当你能准确预测出
01:10
when you can predict预测
exactly究竟 what you're going to need.
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自己会需要什么时,效率非常重要。
01:13
But when the anomalous异常的
or unexpected意外 comes along沿 --
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但是,当异常或意外出现时——
如孩子、顾客、椰子——
01:17
kids孩子, customers顾客, coconuts椰子 --
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01:19
well, then efficiency效率
is no longer your friend朋友.
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那么效率就不再是你的朋友了。
01:24
This has become成为 a really crucial关键 issue问题,
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这种处理意外的能力
01:26
this ability能力 to deal合同 with the unexpected意外,
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就变得非常关键了,
01:29
because the unexpected意外
is becoming变得 the norm规范.
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因为意外情况会成为常态。
01:33
It's why experts专家 and forecasters预报
are reluctant不情愿 to predict预测 anything
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这就是为什么专家
和预测人员不愿意预测
任何超过 400 天的事情。
01:37
more than 400 days out.
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01:41
Why?
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为什么?
01:42
Because over the last 20 or 30 years年份,
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因为在过去的 20 或 30 年里,
01:44
much of the world世界 has gone走了
from being存在 complicated复杂
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世界上的许多地方
已经从繁杂变为复杂 ——-
01:48
to being存在 complex复杂 --
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01:50
which哪一个 means手段 that yes, there are patterns模式,
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这意味着,模式虽然存在,
01:52
but they don't repeat重复
themselves他们自己 regularly经常.
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但它们不会经常重复。
01:55
It means手段 that very small changes变化
can make a disproportionate不成比例 impact碰撞.
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这意味着,非常小的变化
可能会产生巨大影响;
02:00
And it means手段 that expertise专门知识
won't惯于 always suffice满足,
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专业知识也许总是不够,
02:02
because the system系统
just keeps保持 changing改变 too fast快速.
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因为系统变化太快。
02:08
So what that means手段
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也就是说,
世界上有大量的东西
02:10
is that there's a huge巨大 amount in the world世界
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现在无法预测。
02:13
that kind of defies难量 forecasting预测 now.
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这就是为什么英格兰银行会说,
“是的,会有另一次崩盘,
02:16
It's why the Bank银行 of England英国 will say
yes, there will be another另一个 crash紧急,
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02:20
but we don't know why or when.
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但我们不知道为什么或何时发生。”
02:23
We know that climate气候 change更改 is real真实,
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我们知道气候变化是真实的,
02:26
but we can't predict预测
where forest森林 fires火灾 will break打破 out,
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但我们无法预测
哪里会有森林火灾,
02:29
and we don't know which哪一个 factories工厂
are going to flood洪水.
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也不知道哪些工厂会发生洪涝。
02:33
It's why companies公司 are blindsided盲目
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这就是为什么当一夜之间,
塑料吸管、塑料袋和瓶装水
从生活必需品变成人人喊打的产品,
02:36
when plastic塑料 straws秸秆
and bags包装袋 and bottled瓶装 water
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02:40
go from staples主食 to rejects拒绝 overnight过夜,
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制造公司却会感到不知所措;
02:45
and baffled困惑 when a change更改 in social社会 mores习俗
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当社会动荡的变化
将明星变成贱民、
同事变成被驱逐的人时,
他们会感到困惑:
02:49
turns stars明星 into pariahs贱民
and colleagues同事 into outcasts弃儿:
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02:55
ineradicable不可磨灭 uncertainty不确定.
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不可避免的不确定性。
02:59
In an environment环境 that defies难量
so much forecasting预测,
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在令众多预测无效的环境中,
03:03
efficiency效率 won't惯于 just not help us,
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效率不仅无法帮助我们,
反倒会破坏和削弱
我们的适应和应对能力。
03:06
it specifically特别 undermines破坏 and erodes溶蚀
our capacity容量 to adapt适应 and respond响应.
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03:16
So if efficiency效率 is no longer
our guiding主导 principle原理,
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因此,如果效率不再是指导原则,
那么,我们该如何应对未来呢?
03:19
how should we address地址 the future未来?
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什么样的思考才能真正帮到我们呢?
03:20
What kind of thinking思维
is really going to help us?
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03:23
What sort分类 of talents人才
must必须 we be sure to defend保卫?
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我们必须要捍卫什么样的才能?
03:29
I think that, where in the past过去 we used to
think a lot about just in time management管理,
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过去我们经常思考“及时管理”,
现在,我认为我们必须
开始考虑“以防万一”,
03:34
now we have to start开始 thinking思维
about just in case案件,
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为一般情况下虽然很确定,
03:38
preparing准备 for events事件
that are generally通常 certain某些
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但仍不能完全掌握的情况做准备。
03:41
but specifically特别 remain ambiguous暧昧.
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03:45
One example of this is the Coalition联盟
for Epidemic流行 Preparedness准备, CEPICEPI.
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其中一个例子是
流行病预防联盟,即 CEPI。
我们知道将来会有更多流行病,
03:50
We know there will be
more epidemics流行病 in future未来,
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但不知何地、何时、是哪种流行病。
03:54
but we don't know where or when or what.
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所以我们根本无法计划,
03:58
So we can't plan计划.
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04:00
But we can prepare准备.
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但我们可为此准备。
04:03
So CEPI'sCEPI的 developing发展 multiple vaccines疫苗
for multiple diseases疾病,
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因此,CEPI 正针对
多种疾病开发疫苗,
04:09
knowing会心 that they can't predict预测
which哪一个 vaccines疫苗 are going to work
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他们知道,无法预测
哪种疫苗会起作用、
04:13
or which哪一个 diseases疾病 will break打破 out.
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或者说,哪种疾病会爆发。
04:15
So some of those vaccines疫苗
will never be used.
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因此,一些疫苗将永远用不到。
04:18
That's inefficient低效.
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这样做的效率很低,
04:20
But it's robust强大的,
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但它很强大,
因为它提供了更多选择,
04:22
because it provides提供 more options选项,
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这意味着我们不再依赖于
单一的技术解决方案。
04:24
and it means手段 that we don't depend依靠
on a single technological技术性 solution.
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04:30
Epidemic流行 responsiveness响应
also depends依靠 hugely巨大
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对流行病的响应能力
很大程度上取决于
相互了解和信任的人。
04:33
on people who know and trust相信 each other.
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但建立这些关系需要时间,
04:36
But those relationships关系
take time to develop发展,
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当流行病爆发时,时间总不够用。
04:39
time that is always in short supply供应
when an epidemic疫情 breaks休息 out.
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因此,CEPI 眼下正在
建立关系、友谊、联盟,
04:43
So CEPICEPI is developing发展 relationships关系,
friendships友谊, alliances联盟 now
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04:50
knowing会心 that some of those
may可能 never be used.
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深谙其中一些可能永远用不到。
04:53
That's inefficient低效,
a waste浪费 of time, perhaps也许,
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这可能效率低、浪费时间,
但这种做法十分稳妥。
04:57
but it's robust强大的.
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04:59
You can see robust强大的 thinking思维
in financial金融 services服务, too.
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在金融服务中,
你也能看到稳健性思维。
05:02
In the past过去, banks银行 used to hold保持
much less capital首都
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在过去,通常银行持有的资本
远远少于今天所需的资本,
05:06
than they're required需要 to today今天,
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因为持有如此少的资本、
过于高效的做法
05:09
because holding保持 so little capital首都,
being存在 too efficient高效 with it,
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会首先使银行变得很脆弱。
05:12
is what made制作 the banks银行
so fragile脆弱 in the first place地点.
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05:16
Now, holding保持 more capital首都
looks容貌 and is inefficient低效.
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现在,持有更多资本
看起来效率低,也确实效率低。
但它很稳健,因为它可以
保护金融系统免受意外。
05:22
But it's robust强大的, because it protects保护
the financial金融 system系统 against反对 surprises惊喜.
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05:29
Countries国家 that are really serious严重
about climate气候 change更改
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对气候变化非常认真的国家知道,
他们必须采用多种解决方案、
05:32
know that they have to adopt采用
multiple solutions解决方案,
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多种形式的可再生能源,
05:35
multiple forms形式 of renewable可再生 energy能源,
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而不仅仅是一种。
05:38
not just one.
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05:40
The countries国家 that are most advanced高级
have been working加工 for years年份 now,
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最先进的国家多年来一直致力于
改变水和食品供应和医疗保健系统,
05:44
changing改变 their water and food餐饮 supply供应
and healthcare卫生保健 systems系统,
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因为他们认识到,
就算他们预测到了,
05:48
because they recognize认识 that by the time
they have certain某些 prediction预测,
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到那时候再搜集
这些信息可能就太晚了。
05:53
that information信息 may可能 very well
come too late晚了.
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05:57
You can take the same相同 approach途径
to trade贸易 wars战争, and many许多 countries国家 do.
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同样的方式也可以用来应对贸易战,
许多国家也是这样做的。
06:01
Instead代替 of depending根据 on a single
huge巨大 trading贸易 partner伙伴,
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与其依赖一个强有力的贸易伙伴,
不如试图成为每个人的朋友,
06:05
they try to be everybody's每个人的 friends朋友,
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06:07
because they know they can't predict预测
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因为他们知道无法预测,
06:10
which哪一个 markets市场 might威力
suddenly突然 become成为 unstable不稳定.
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哪些市场可能会突然变得不稳定。
06:14
It's time-consuming耗时的 and expensive昂贵,
negotiating谈判 all these deals交易,
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所有这些交易的谈判耗时又昂贵,
但它很稳定,
06:18
but it's robust强大的
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06:19
because it makes品牌 their whole整个 economy经济
better defended辩护 against反对 shocks震荡.
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因为它使整个经济体
能更好地抵御冲击。
06:24
It's particularly尤其 a strategy战略
adopted采用 by small countries国家
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小国家尤其喜欢采用这样的策略,
06:28
that know they'll他们会 never have
the market市场 muscle肌肉 to call the shots镜头,
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他们知道靠自己的市场力量
永远不可能做主,
所以拥有朋友越多越好。
06:32
so it's just better to have
too many许多 friends朋友.
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06:37
But if you're stuck卡住
in one of these organizations组织
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但如果你陷入其中一个
依然崇尚效率神话的组织里,
06:40
that's still kind of captured捕获
by the efficiency效率 myth神话,
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06:45
how do you start开始 to change更改 it?
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你又如何开始改变呢?
06:48
Try some experiments实验.
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尝试一些实验吧。
06:50
In the Netherlands荷兰,
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过去在荷兰,
06:51
home care关心 nursing看护 used to be run
pretty漂亮 much like the supermarket超级市场:
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家庭护理业的运作非常像超市:
06:56
standardized标准化 and prescribed规定 work
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标准化和规定的工作
量化到分钟:
06:59
to the minute分钟:
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周一 9 分钟、周三 7 分钟、
07:01
nine minutes分钟 on Monday星期一,
seven minutes分钟 on Wednesday星期三,
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周五 8 分钟。
07:04
eight minutes分钟 on Friday星期五.
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护士们讨厌这些,
07:06
The nurses护士 hated it.
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所以其中叫乔斯·德·勃洛克
(Jos de Blok)的人
07:08
So one of them, Jos乔斯 de Blok布洛克,
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提议做一个实验。
07:11
proposed建议 an experiment实验.
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07:13
Since以来 every一切 patient患者 is different不同,
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由于每个患者都不同,
我们并不确切知道他们需要什么,
07:15
and we don't quite相当 know
exactly究竟 what they'll他们会 need,
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为何不让护士来决定呢?
07:17
why don't we just leave离开 it
to the nurses护士 to decide决定?
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07:21
Sound声音 reckless鲁莽?
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听起来很鲁莽吗?
07:22
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
(掌声)
07:24
(Applause掌声)
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在实验中,乔斯发现,
07:26
In his experiment实验, Jos乔斯 found发现
the patients耐心 got better
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只需原来一半的时间,
患者反而恢复得更好了,
07:30
in half the time,
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成本还下降了30%。
07:32
and costs成本 fell下跌 by 30 percent百分.
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07:37
When I asked Jos乔斯 what had surprised诧异 him
about his experiment实验,
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当我问乔斯,实验的
哪个部分让他感到惊讶时,
他只是笑了笑,说道:
07:42
he just kind of laughed笑了 and he said,
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07:43
"Well, I had no idea理念 it could be so easy简单
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“我没想到
这么容易就做出了如此巨大的改进,
07:47
to find such这样 a huge巨大 improvement起色,
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因为这不是你坐在办公桌前
07:49
because this isn't the kind of thing
you can know or predict预测
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或盯着电脑屏幕
就能了解或预知的事情。”
07:53
sitting坐在 at a desk
or staring凝视 at a computer电脑 screen屏幕."
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07:56
So now this form形成 of nursing看护
has proliferated激增 across横过 the Netherlands荷兰
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“所以,现在这种形式的护理
已在荷兰和世界各地蔓延开来。
08:00
and around the world世界.
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08:02
But in every一切 new country国家
it still starts启动 with experiments实验,
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但在每个新的国家,
它仍然从实验开始,
因为每个地方都有所不同,
而且无法提前预测。
08:05
because each place地点 is slightly
and unpredictably不可预测的 different不同.
140
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08:11
Of course课程, not all experiments实验 work.
141
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当然,并非所有实验都有效。
08:15
Jos乔斯 tried试着 a similar类似 approach途径
to the fire service服务
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乔斯尝试了类似的消防服务方法,
08:18
and found发现 it didn't work because
the service服务 is just too centralized集中.
143
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发现它没什么用,因为服务过于集中。
08:21
Failed失败 experiments实验 look inefficient低效,
144
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失败的实验看起来效率低下,
08:24
but they're often经常 the only way
you can figure数字 out
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但它们往往是
弄清现实世界如何运作的唯一方法。
08:27
how the real真实 world世界 works作品.
146
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08:30
So now he's trying teachers教师.
147
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所以,现在他正在教育行业尝试。
08:34
Experiments实验 like that require要求 creativity创造力
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像这样的实验需要创造力,
08:38
and not a little bravery.
149
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而不是单单一点勇气就可以的。
08:41
In England英国 --
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在英格兰——
08:43
I was about to say in the UK联合王国,
but in England英国 --
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我正准备说在英国呢,
其实是在英格兰——
08:46
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
08:48
(Applause掌声)
153
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(掌声)
08:53
In England英国, the leading领导 rugby橄榄球 team球队,
or one of the leading领导 rugby橄榄球 teams球队,
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在英格兰,领先的橄榄球队,
或领先的橄榄球队之一
是撒拉逊人 (Saracens)。
08:57
is Saracens萨拉森斯.
155
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1360
08:59
The manager经理 and the coach教练 there realized实现
that all the physical物理 training训练 they do
156
527299
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球队的经理和教练意识到,
他们做的全部体能训练
和数据驱动训练
09:04
and the data-driven数据驱动
conditioning空调 that they do
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已变得通用化;
09:07
has become成为 generic通用;
158
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09:08
really, all the teams球队
do exactly究竟 the same相同 thing.
159
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实际上,所有球队都做同样的事情,
09:11
So they risked冒险 an experiment实验.
160
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所以,他们冒险做了一个实验。
09:14
They took the whole整个 team球队 away,
even in match比赛 season季节,
161
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即使还在赛季中,
他们依然带领整个团队去滑雪,
09:18
on ski滑雪 trips旅行
162
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09:19
and to look at social社会 projects项目 in Chicago芝加哥.
163
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并观察芝加哥的社交项目。
09:23
This was expensive昂贵,
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这些活动费用很高,
09:24
it was time-consuming耗时的,
165
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又耗费时间,
让全队的橄榄球运动员
09:26
and it could be a little risky有风险
166
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09:28
putting a whole整个 bunch of rugby橄榄球 players玩家
on a ski滑雪 slope, right?
167
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待在滑雪坡上,
可能还是有点冒险的吧?
(笑声)
09:32
(Laughter笑声)
168
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09:33
But what they found发现 was that
the players玩家 came来了 back
169
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3344
但他们发现,回来之后,
球员们更加忠诚、团队关系更坚固了。
09:36
with renewed更新 bonds债券
of loyalty忠诚 and solidarity团结.
170
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而现在,当他们在球场上
面临令人难以置信的压力时,
09:41
And now when they're on the pitch沥青
under incredible难以置信 pressure压力,
171
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他们能做到经理所说的“镇静”——
09:45
they manifest表现 what the manager经理
calls电话 "poise平衡" --
172
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09:50
an unflinching坚定, unwavering毫不动摇 dedication贡献
173
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一种彼此间坚定不移、
09:54
to each other.
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毫不动摇的奉献精神。
09:56
Their opponents对手 are in awe威严 of this,
175
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他们的对手对此感到敬畏,
但又太被效率所束缚
而不敢尝试这种方式。
10:00
but still too in thrall崇信
to efficiency效率 to try it.
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4152
10:05
At a London伦敦 tech高科技 company公司, Verve气魄,
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伦敦有一家名叫
沃吾 (Verve)的科技公司,
10:07
the CEOCEO measures措施 just about
everything that moves移动,
178
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他们的首席执行官
量化了一切工作量,
但她找不到
10:11
but she couldn't不能 find anything
that made制作 any difference区别
179
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对公司生产力产生关键影响的东西。
10:14
to the company's公司 productivity生产率.
180
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因此,她设计了一个
她称之为“爱之周”的实验:
10:16
So she devised设计 an experiment实验
that she calls电话 "Love Week":
181
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整整一周,
10:20
a whole整个 week where each employee雇员
has to look for really clever聪明,
182
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每个员工
必须寻找队友所做的非常聪明、
有益、富有想象力的事情,
10:24
helpful有帮助, imaginative想像的 things
183
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10:27
that a counterpart副本 does,
184
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1800
说出来,并赞美它。
10:28
call it out and celebrate庆祝 it.
185
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这需要大量的时间和精力;
10:31
It takes a huge巨大 amount of time and effort功夫;
186
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很多人会称它分散注意力。
10:33
lots of people would call it distracting分心.
187
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3037
10:36
But it really energizes通电 the business商业
188
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但它确实为企业注入了活力,
10:38
and makes品牌 the whole整个 company公司
more productive生产的.
189
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3638
使整个公司的生产力大幅提高。
10:44
Preparedness准备, coalition-building联盟建设,
190
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准备就绪、联盟建设、
10:47
imagination想像力, experiments实验,
191
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想象力、实验、
勇气 ——
10:50
bravery --
192
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10:53
in an unpredictable不可预料的 age年龄,
193
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在不可预测的时代,
10:54
these are tremendous巨大 sources来源
of resilience弹性 and strength强度.
194
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5668
这些都是坚韧和力量的巨大来源。
11:00
They aren't efficient高效,
195
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虽然它们的效率不高,
11:04
but they give us limitless无限 capacity容量
196
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2669
但它们为我们提供了
无限的适应、变化和创新能力。
11:06
for adaptation适应, variation变异 and invention发明.
197
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4495
11:12
And the less we know about the future未来,
198
660284
2422
我们对未来的了解越少,
就会越需要这些人类所拥有
的杂乱的、不可预测
11:14
the more we're going to need
these tremendous巨大 sources来源
199
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5402
11:20
of human人的, messy, unpredictable不可预料的 skills技能.
200
668156
5621
的技能的巨大来源。
11:27
But in our growing生长
dependence依赖 on technology技术,
201
675336
4060
但是,随着对技术的日益依赖,
11:32
we're asset-stripping资产剥离 those skills技能.
202
680318
3350
我们正在削减这些技能。
11:36
Every一切 time we use technology技术
203
684642
3565
每次我们使用科技
来推动做出决定或选择时、
11:40
to nudge微调 us through通过 a decision决定 or a choice选择
204
688231
4192
或者用科技来解读人的感受、
11:44
or to interpret how somebody's某人的 feeling感觉
205
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11:46
or to guide指南 us through通过 a conversation会话,
206
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2177
或用科技引导我们完成对话时,
11:48
we outsource外包 to a machine
what we could, can do ourselves我们自己,
207
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5114
我们是在将本来应该自己做
而且能做的事情外包给机器去完成,
这是一项昂贵的交换。
11:54
and it's an expensive昂贵 trade-off交易.
208
702124
2524
11:57
The more we let machines think for us,
209
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让机器为我们思考得越多,
12:01
the less we can think for ourselves我们自己.
210
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我们就越不能为自己思考。
12:05
The more --
211
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越多的——
(掌声)
12:06
(Applause掌声)
212
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医生看数字医疗记录的时间越多,
12:11
The more time doctors医生 spend
staring凝视 at digital数字 medical records记录,
213
719432
4721
12:16
the less time they spend
looking at their patients耐心.
214
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3386
他们用来问诊病人的时间就会越少。
12:20
The more we use parenting育儿 apps应用,
215
728325
2788
育儿应用程序用得越多,
12:23
the less we know our kids孩子.
216
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我们对孩子的了解就会越少。
12:26
The more time we spend with people that
we're predicted预料到的 and programmed程序 to like,
217
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5086
花费在预测我们会喜欢,
或计划喜欢的人的时间越长,
12:31
the less we can connect with people
who are different不同 from ourselves我们自己.
218
739420
3710
我们就越不会和与自己不同的人联系。
12:35
And the less compassion同情 we need,
the less compassion同情 we have.
219
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我们需要的同情越少,
我们的同情心就会越少。
12:41
What all of these
technologies技术 attempt尝试 to do
220
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3534
所有这些科技都在试图
12:45
is to force-fit强制拟合 a standardized标准化 model模型
of a predictable可预测 reality现实
221
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6797
用可预测现实的标准化模型
12:52
onto a world世界 that is
infinitely无限地 surprising奇怪.
222
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去强制适应一个给你无限惊喜的世界。
12:56
What gets得到 left out?
223
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我们遗漏了什么?
12:58
Anything that can't be measured测量 --
224
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2603
我们遗漏了所有无法衡量的东西 ——
13:02
which哪一个 is just about
everything that counts计数.
225
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2359
几乎都是非常重要的东西。
(掌声)
13:05
(Applause掌声)
226
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6965
13:14
Our growing生长 dependence依赖 on technology技术
227
782854
4087
我们对科技的日益依赖
使我们面临自身技能变差的风险,
13:18
risks风险 us becoming变得 less skilled技能的,
228
786965
3773
13:22
more vulnerable弱势
229
790762
1595
使我们
更容易受到深层和日益复杂
13:24
to the deep and growing生长 complexity复杂
230
792381
2951
的现实世界的影响。
13:27
of the real真实 world世界.
231
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1373
13:29
Now, as I was thinking思维 about
the extremes极端 of stress强调 and turbulence动乱
232
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当我想到我们必须面对
13:35
that we know we will have to confront面对,
233
803359
2656
的极端压力和动荡时,
13:39
I went and I talked to
a number of chief首席 executives高管
234
807412
2952
我曾找过一些首席执行官谈话,
13:42
whose谁的 own拥有 businesses企业 had gone走了
through通过 existential存在 crises危机,
235
810388
4168
他们自己的企业都经历过生存危机,
13:46
when they teetered摇摇欲坠
on the brink边缘 of collapse坍方.
236
814580
2888
那时他们曾濒临崩溃的边缘。
13:50
These were frank坦率,
gut-wrenching肠痛苦 conversations对话.
237
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这些是坦诚而痛苦的对话,
13:56
Many许多 men男人 wept哭泣 just remembering记忆.
238
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3277
很多男子汉回顾往事
都不禁潸然泪下。
14:00
So I asked them:
239
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1514
我问他们:
14:02
"What kept不停 you going through通过 this?"
240
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2065
“是什么让你克服了危机?”
14:05
And they all had exactly究竟 the same相同 answer回答.
241
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2654
他们都有完全相同的答案。
14:08
"It wasn't data数据 or technology技术," they said.
242
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3110
“不是数据或科技,”他们说。
14:11
"It was my friends朋友 and my colleagues同事
243
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3385
“而是我的朋友和同事们
支持着我继续前进。”
14:15
who kept不停 me going."
244
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1336
14:17
One added添加, "It was pretty漂亮 much
the opposite对面 of the gig演出 economy经济."
245
845173
5315
其中一位补充说:
“这与临时工性质完全相反。”
14:24
But then I went and I talked to a group
of young年轻, rising升起 executives高管,
246
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3734
后来我又去和一群年轻新晋高管交谈,
我问他们:
14:27
and I asked them,
247
855814
1807
“工作中有谁是你朋友吗?”
14:29
"Who are your friends朋友 at work?"
248
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他们看起来很困惑 ,
14:31
And they just looked看着 blank空白.
249
859211
1778
14:33
"There's no time."
250
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1850
“没时间交朋友。”
“他们太忙了。”
14:35
"They're too busy."
251
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1809
“交朋友效率低下。”
14:37
"It's not efficient高效."
252
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14:39
Who, I wondered想知道, is going to give them
253
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3572
我想知道的是,
当暴风雨来临时,谁去赋予他们
14:43
imagination想像力 and stamina耐力 and bravery
254
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4539
想象力、毅力和勇气呢?
14:48
when the storms风暴 come?
255
876065
1516
14:51
Anyone任何人 who tries尝试 to tell you
that they know the future未来
256
879694
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任何试图告诉你他们知道未来的人,
他们只是试图拥有未来,
14:55
is just trying to own拥有 it,
257
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2198
14:57
a spurious kind of manifest表现 destiny命运.
258
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这是一种虚假的天定命运。
15:01
The harder更难, deeper更深 truth真相 is
259
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2321
更难、更深刻的事实是,
15:05
that the future未来 is uncharted未知,
260
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未来是未知的,
在它来临前,根本无法知晓。
15:07
that we can't map地图 it till直到 we get there.
261
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2244
15:10
But that's OK,
262
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2063
但那没关系,
15:12
because we have so much imagination想像力 --
263
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因为我们有很多想象力——
如果我们肯去想象的话。
15:15
if we use it.
264
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15:17
We have deep talents人才
of inventiveness创造力 and exploration勘探 --
265
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我们有创造和探索的深厚才能——
如果我们肯应用这些才能的话。
15:22
if we apply应用 them.
266
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1777
我们足够勇敢去发明
以前从未见过的东西,
15:24
We are brave勇敢 enough足够 to invent发明 things
we've我们已经 never seen看到 before.
267
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15:31
Lose失去 those skills技能,
268
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1615
同样,要是失去这些技能,
15:33
and we are adrift漂浮.
269
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1722
我们只能随波逐流。
15:36
But hone磨练 and develop发展 them,
270
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但是,磨练和发展这些技能,
15:40
we can make any future未来 we choose选择.
271
928498
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我们就可以创造出
我们选择的任何未来。
15:44
Thank you.
272
932382
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谢谢!
15:45
(Applause掌声)
273
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6086
(掌声)
Translated by Carol Wang
Reviewed by Yanyan Hong

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Margaret Heffernan - Management thinker
The former CEO of five businesses, Margaret Heffernan explores the all-too-human thought patterns -- like conflict avoidance and selective blindness -- that lead organizations and managers astray.

Why you should listen

How do organizations think? In her book Willful Blindness, Margaret Heffernan examines why businesses and the people who run them often ignore the obvious -- with consequences as dire as the global financial crisis and Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster.

Heffernan began her career in television production, building a track record at the BBC before going on to run the film and television producer trade association IPPA. In the US, Heffernan became a serial entrepreneur and CEO in the wild early days of web business. She now blogs for the Huffington Post and BNET.com. Her latest book, Beyond Measure, a TED Books original, explores the small steps companies can make that lead to big changes in their culture.

More profile about the speaker
Margaret Heffernan | Speaker | TED.com

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