TEDxChange
Hans Rosling: The good news of the decade? We're winning the war against child mortality
Hans Rosling:最近十年的好消息？
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Hans Rosling以其獨到的見解，重新解讀聯合國最近十年所報導的資料，發現了一項以前從未有人報導過的重量級好消息。在他的演說中，他揭露了統計數據上的盲點，這盲點掩蓋了最重要的事實。
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
We are here today
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今天我來到這裡，
00:17
because [the] United Nations
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是因為聯合國
00:19
have defined goals
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為國家的發展
00:21
for the progress of countries.
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定了幾個目標，
00:23
They're called Millennium Development Goals.
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他們稱之為「千禧發展目標」。
00:26
And the reason I really like these goals
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我喜歡這些目標的原因是，
00:29
is that there are eight of them.
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他們分成八個目標。
00:32
And by specifying eight different goals,
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這八個不同目標是由聯合國所訂定的，
00:34
the United Nations has said
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他們認為要讓一個國家
00:36
that there are so many things needed
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為人民創造更好的生活，
00:38
to change in a country
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有太多事情
00:40
in order to get the good life for people.
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是等著我們去做的。
00:42
Look here -- you have to end poverty,
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看看這裡，我們應該終止貧窮、
00:44
education, gender,
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發展教育、性別平等、
00:46
child and maternal health,
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重視孩童與母親的健康、
00:48
control infections, protect the environment
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控制傳染病、保護環境、
00:51
and get the good global links between nations
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讓世界各國維持良好關係，
00:53
in every aspect
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這些目標包涵了每一個面向，
00:55
from aid to trade.
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從援助到貿易都有。
00:58
There's a second reason I like these development goals,
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我喜歡這幾個發展目標還有另一個原因，
01:01
and that is because each and every one is measured.
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就是每一個目標都可以加以衡量。
01:04
Take child mortality;
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舉孩童死亡率為例，
01:07
the aim here is to reduce child mortality
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目標是要在1990年到2050年內，
01:09
by two-thirds,
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降低孩童死亡率
01:11
from 1990 to 2015.
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達三分之二，
01:14
That's a four percent reduction per year --
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也就是每年要下降4%，
01:18
and this, with measuring.
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這是可以衡量的。
01:20
That's what makes the difference
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這就是為什麼政治語言
01:22
between political talking like this
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和實際上為人民創造
01:24
and really going for the important thing,
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更好的生活，
01:26
a better life for people.
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會有那麼大的差別。
01:29
And what I'm so happy about with this
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我之所以很高興，
01:31
is that we have already documented
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是因為我們終於看到，
01:33
that there are many countries
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在亞洲、中東、
01:35
in Asia, in the Middle East,
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拉丁美洲
01:37
in Latin America and East Europe
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和東歐的許多國家裡，
01:40
that [are] reducing with this rate.
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這個比率確實在下降。
01:42
And even mighty Brazil is going down with five percent per year,
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即使偉大的巴西每年的孩童死亡率也下降了5%，
01:45
and Turkey with seven percent per year.
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土耳其則下降了7%，
01:47
So there's good news.
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這真是好消息。
01:49
But then I hear people saying, "There is no progress in Africa.
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但我聽到有人說：「非洲的情況並沒有改善啊...
01:52
And there's not even statistics on Africa
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我們連非洲的統計數據都看不到，
01:54
to know what is happening."
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要怎麼知道發生了什麼事？」
01:56
I'll prove them wrong on both points.
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我要來證明這些人錯了。
01:59
Come with me to the wonderful world of statistics.
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和我一起來看看這些美妙的統計數據，
02:02
I bring you to the webpage, ChildMortality.org,
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你可以上這個網頁：ChildMortality.org，
02:05
where you can take deaths in children
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上面有每一個國家
02:07
below five years of age for all countries --
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年齡小於五歲的孩童死亡數字，
02:10
it's done by U.N. specialists.
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這是由聯合國的專家所統計出來的，
02:12
And I will take Kenya as an example.
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我就舉肯亞為例子好了。
02:14
Here you see the data.
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你看這個資料，
02:16
Don't panic -- don't panic now, I'll help you through this.
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先別緊張，先別緊張，我來告訴你們怎麼看這些數據。
02:19
It looks nasty, like in college
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這看起來很恐怖，就像你在大學時
02:21
when you didn't like statistics.
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最討厭上的統計課一樣，
02:23
But first thing, when you see dots like this,
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但是，當你看到這些點點的時候，
02:25
you have to ask yourself:
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你得先問你自己一個問題：
02:27
from where do the data come?
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這些數據是從哪裡來的？
02:29
What is the origin of the data?
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原始數據在哪裡？
02:31
Is it so that in Kenya,
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在肯亞有沒有
02:33
there are doctors and other specialists
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醫生或其他專業人員，
02:35
who write the death certificate at the death of the child
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在孩童死去的時候，填寫一張死亡證明，
02:37
and it's sent to the statistical office?
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然後送到統計局去？
02:39
No -- low-income countries like Kenya
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沒有，像肯亞這種低收入國家
02:42
still don't have that level of organization.
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還沒有這種層級的機構組織，
02:45
It exists, but it's not complete
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是有這種組織沒錯，但是缺乏完整的運作功能，
02:47
because so many deaths occur in the home
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因為有許多孩童是在
02:50
with the family,
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家裡死去，
02:52
and it's not registered.
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沒有做任何登記。
02:54
What we rely on is not an incomplete system.
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我們不能信任這種不完整的系統，
02:56
We have interviews, we have surveys.
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我們只能進行訪談，深入調查。
02:59
And this is highly professional
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這是一位極為專業的
03:01
female interviewers
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女性訪問員，
03:03
who sit down for one hour with a woman
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她和一位女士坐在一起一個小時，
03:05
and ask her about [her] birth history.
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詢問對方的生產資料，
03:07
How many children did you have?
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你生了幾個小孩？
03:09
Are they alive?
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全都活著嗎？
03:11
If they died, at what age and what year?
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死掉的孩子是在哪一年、幾歲的時候死去？
03:14
And then this is done in a representative sample
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這些會成為那個國家裡
03:16
of thousands of women in the country
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成千上萬婦女的代表性樣本，
03:19
and put together in what used to be called
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這些樣本會被蒐集起來，
03:21
a demographic health survey report.
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放進人口健康調查的報告裡。
03:24
But these surveys are costly,
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但這種調查需要很多經費，
03:26
so they can only be done [in] three- to five-year intervals.
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所以只能每隔三到五年才能做一次，
03:29
But they have good quality.
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但調查的品質很好，
03:31
So this is a limitation.
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只是經費有些限制。
03:33
And all these colored lines here are results;
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這些有顏色的線就是調查結果，
03:36
each color is one survey.
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每一種顏色代表每一次的調查。
03:38
But that's too complicated for today, so I'll simplify it for you,
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但這樣看起來太複雜了，所以我想要簡化一點，
03:41
and I give you one average point for each survey.
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我就把每一次調查的平均值點出來好了，
03:44
This was 1977, 1988,
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這是1977年、1988年、
03:47
1992, '97
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1992年、1997年
03:49
and 2002.
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和2002年。
03:52
And when the experts in the U.N.
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當聯合國的專家們
03:54
have got these surveys in place in their database,
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把這些數據放進資料庫，
03:57
then they use advanced mathematical formulas
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他們就會用先進的數學公式
04:00
to produce a trend line, and the trend line looks like this.
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來畫出一條趨勢線，像是這一條趨勢線，
04:03
See here -- it's the best fit they can get of this point.
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看這裡，這是他們畫出來的線，
04:06
But watch out --
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請你注意看，
04:08
they continue the line
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他們還把線
04:10
beyond the last point
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往後延伸了，
04:12
out into nothing.
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延伸到未來，
04:14
And they estimated that in 2008,
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他們估計，在2008年，
04:17
Kenya had per child mortality of 128.
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肯亞孩童的死亡率是128。
04:20
And I was sad,
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我很難過，
04:22
because we could see
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因為我們本來以為，
04:24
this reversal in Kenya
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在90年代肯亞的
04:26
with an increased child mortality in the 90s.
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孩童死亡率達到高峰後，應該會下降，
04:29
It was so tragic.
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但沒有，真的很慘。
04:31
But in June, I got a mail in my inbox
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但我在六月的時候收到一封電子郵件，
04:34
from Demographic Health Surveys,
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是從人口健康調查局送出的郵件，
04:36
and it showed good news from Kenya.
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我看到了來自肯亞的好消息。
04:38
I was so happy.
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我很高興，
04:40
This was the estimate of the new survey.
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這是新調查做出的估計，
04:43
Then it just took another three months
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聯合國又花了三個月的時間，
04:45
for [the] U.N. to get it into their server,
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把資料放進電腦裡，
04:47
and on Friday we got the new trend line --
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星期五我們才收到新畫出來的趨勢線，
04:50
it was down here.
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從這裡開始下降了，
04:52
Isn't it nice -- isn't it nice, yeah?
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很棒吧？這真的很棒，不是嗎？
04:54
I was actually, on Friday, sitting in front of my computer,
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星期五的時候，我一整個上午都坐在電腦前面，
04:57
and I saw the death rate fall
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看著死亡率下降，
04:59
from 128 to 84 just that morning.
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從128下降到84，
05:02
So we celebrated.
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我們高興地慶祝了起來。
05:04
But now, when you have this trend line,
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但是，當你看到這條趨勢線的時候，
05:06
how do we measure progress?
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要怎麼樣來衡量進步程度？
05:08
I'm going into some details here,
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我現在來仔細講解
05:10
because [the] U.N. do it like this.
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聯合國的作法，
05:12
They start [in] 1990 -- they measure to 2009.
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他們是從1990年開始，一直衡量到2009年，
05:15
They say, "0.9 percent, no progress."
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他們發現：「只有0.9%，沒有進步。」
05:18
That's unfair.
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這不合理，
05:20
As a professor, I think I have the right to propose something differently.
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身為一位教授，我認為我有權利提出不同的見解，
05:23
I would say, at least do this --
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我會說，至少要做這個分析，
05:25
10 years is enough to follow the trend.
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十年就足以看出趨勢了，
05:27
It's two surveys, and you can see what's happening now.
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十年裡會有二次調查，你就可以看出實際的狀況，
05:30
They have 2.4 percent.
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其實是2.4%。
05:32
Had I been in the Ministry of Health in Kenya,
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要是我是肯亞的衛生署長，
05:34
I may have joined these two points.
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我就會把這二個點列入考慮。
05:37
So what I'm telling you
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我要告訴各位的是，
05:39
is that we know the child mortality.
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我們已經知道孩童的死亡率，
05:41
We have a decent trend.
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我們畫得出一條趨勢線，
05:43
It's coming into some tricky things then
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但我們在衡量這些千禧發展目標時，
05:45
when we are measuring MDGs.
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有些陷阱是必須注意的，
05:47
And the reason here for Africa is especially important,
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尤其是對非洲來說格外重要，
05:50
because '90s was a bad decade,
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因為90年代是很不好的十年，
05:52
not only in Kenya, but across Africa.
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不只是肯亞，整個非洲都很不好。
05:55
The HIV epidemic peaked.
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HIV病毒的擴散達到高峰；
05:57
There was resistance for the old malaria drugs, until we got the new drugs.
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瘧疾已對舊的藥物產生抗藥性，直到我們開發出新藥才抑制下來；
06:00
We got, later, the mosquito netting.
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我們後來也收到許多蚊帳；
06:02
And there was socio-economic problems,
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還有一些社會經濟的問題，
06:04
which are now being solved at a much better scale.
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現在才改善到較好的狀況。
06:07
So look at the average here --
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現在來看看平均數，
06:09
this is the average for all of sub-Saharan Africa.
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這是撒哈拉沙漠以南非洲的平均數，
06:11
And [the] U.N. says
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聯合國說
06:13
it's a reduction with 1.8 percent.
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下降了1.8%。
06:16
Now this sounds a little theoretical,
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我現在要講的會讓你以為很理論，
06:18
but it's not so theoretical.
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但是並不會，
06:20
You know, these economists,
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這些經濟學家，
06:22
they love money, they want more and more of it, they want it to grow.
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他們愛錢，他們希望錢愈多愈好，他們喜歡看到成長，
06:25
So they calculate the percent annual growth rate of [the] economy.
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所以他們老是在計算每年的經濟成長率；
06:28
We in public health, we hate child death,
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但我們這種公共衛生領域的人，我們討厭孩童死亡，
06:31
so we want less and less and less of child deaths.
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我們希望孩童死亡人數愈少愈好，
06:33
So we calculate the percent reduction per year,
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所以我們會計算每年的下降比率，
06:35
but it's sort of the same percentage.
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但其實這二種都是同一種比率。
06:37
If your economy grows with four percent,
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如果經濟成長了4%，
06:39
you ought to reduce child mortality four percent;
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孩童死亡率應該也會下降4%才對，
06:41
if it's used well and people are really involved
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因為如果經濟成長了，
06:44
and can get the use of the resources in the way they want it.
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人們就會有足夠的資源去做他們想做的事。
06:47
So is this fair now to measure this over 19 years?
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那你覺得用19年的期間來衡量這個指標合理嗎？
06:50
An economist would never do that.
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經濟學家就不會這麼做。
06:53
I have just divided it into two periods.
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我把整個期間分成二個期間來看，
06:55
In the 90s, only 1.2 percent,
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在1990年代，只有1.2%，
06:58
only 1.2 percent.
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只有1.2%。
07:00
Whereas now, second gear --
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現在則換到二檔--
07:02
it's like Africa had first gear,
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過去的非洲是在一檔，
07:04
now they go into second gear.
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現在換到了二檔。
07:06
But even this
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但即使如此，
07:08
is not a fair representation of Africa,
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還是不能合理代表非洲的狀況，
07:10
because it's an average,
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因為我們用的是平均數，
07:12
it's an average speed of reduction in Africa.
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也就是說，這是非洲平均的下降速度。
07:14
And look here when I take you into my bubble graphs.
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我讓你們看看我畫的圖表，
07:17
Still here,
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和前面一樣，
07:19
child death per 1,000 on that axis.
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這個軸代表的是每千個孩童死亡的人數，
07:22
Here we have [the] year.
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這邊則代表年份。
07:24
And I'm now giving you a wider picture than the MDG.
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我要讓你們看看比千禧發展目標更宏觀的圖表，
07:27
I start 50 years ago
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我從50年前開始記錄，
07:29
when Africa celebrated independence in most countries.
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那時非洲大部分的國家都才剛剛獨立，
07:32
I give you Congo, which was high,
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例如剛果，死亡率很高，
07:34
Ghana -- lower. And Kenya -- even lower.
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迦納比較低，肯亞更低一點。
07:36
And what has happened over the years since then? Here we go.
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那以後又發生了什麼事？我們來看看，
07:39
You can see, with independence, literacy improved
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因為國家獨立了，人民的讀寫能力跟著提升；
07:42
and vaccinations started, smallpox was eradicated,
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人民接種牛痘疫苗，天花逐漸絕跡；
07:45
hygiene was improved, and things got better.
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衛生環境也改善了，每一件事都變得更好。
07:48
But then, in the '80s, watch out here.
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但我們看看這裡，1980年代的時候，
07:50
Congo got into civil war,
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剛果發生了內戰，
07:52
and they leveled off here.
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所以他們就維持在這個水平線上，
07:54
Ghana got very ahead, fast.
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迦納則持續下降，
07:56
This was the backlash in Kenya, and Ghana bypassed,
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肯亞稍微往上升一點，然後迦納超越肯亞，
07:59
but then Kenya and Ghana go down together --
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接著肯亞和迦納就一起往下降，
08:01
still a standstill in Congo.
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剛果還是維持在那個水平線上。
08:03
That's where we are today.
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到今天就是這副模樣。
08:05
You can see it doesn't make sense
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你們看看，把那些沒有改善的國家
08:08
to make an average of this zero improvement
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和改善非常快的國家，放在一起平均，
08:11
and this very fast improvement.
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是完全沒有道理的。
08:15
Time has come
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現在是該停止
08:17
to stop thinking about sub-Saharan Africa as one place.
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把撒哈拉沙漠以南的非洲視為一個整合區域的時候了，
08:21
Their countries are so different,
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那裡每個國家都不一樣，
08:24
and they merit to be recognized in the same way,
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他們不應該再被視為一個區域，
08:27
as we don't talk about Europe as one place.
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就像我們不會以為歐洲是一個區域一樣。
08:29
I can tell you that the economy in Greece and Sweden are very different --
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我可以告訴各位，希臘和瑞典的經濟是完全不同的，
08:32
everyone knows that.
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大家都知道這一點，
08:34
And they are judged, each country, on how they are doing.
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所以每一個國家的表現，都是被單獨評估的。
08:37
So let me show the wider picture.
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所以我們來看看宏觀的圖表，
08:40
My country, Sweden:
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我的國家，瑞典：
08:43
1800, we were up there.
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1800年的時候，我們在這上面，
08:46
What a strange personality disorder we must have,
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我們國家的個性真的很奇怪，
08:49
counting the children so meticulously in spite of a high child death rate.
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儘管我們精心統計小孩的出生數字，卻還有這麼高的孩童死亡率，
08:52
It's very strange. It's sort of embarrassing.
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這真的很奇怪，我都有點不好意思了。
08:55
But we had that habit in Sweden, you know,
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但我們瑞典人就是有這種習慣，
08:57
that we counted all the child deaths,
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我們會計算孩童的死亡率，
08:59
even if we didn't do anything about it.
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但卻也沒做什麼事來改善這個狀況。
09:01
And then, you see, these were famine years.
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接下來，你們看看，這幾年鬧饑荒，
09:03
These were bad years, and people got fed up with Sweden.
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生活不好過，人們追求自由，
09:05
My ancestors moved to the United States.
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所以我的祖先搬到了美國。
09:08
And eventually, soon they started to get better and better here.
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最後，很快地，死亡率下降得愈來愈快，
09:11
And here we got better education, and we got health service,
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到了這裡，我們有更好的教育制度、醫療保健，
09:14
and child mortality came down.
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孩童死亡率就下降到這裡。
09:16
We never had a war; Sweden was in peace all this time.
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瑞典從來沒有發生過戰爭，一直都處於和平狀態，
09:19
But look, the rate of lowering
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但是你看，瑞典孩童死亡率
09:21
in Sweden
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下降的速度
09:23
was not fast.
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並沒有那麼快，
09:25
Sweden achieved a low child mortality
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瑞典之所以會讓孩童死亡率降到這麼低，
09:28
because we started early.
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只是因為我們起步得很早。
09:31
We had primary school actually
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我們的小學教育
09:33
started in 1842.
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是在1842年開始的，
09:35
And then you get that wonderful effect
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所以在一個世代以後，
09:37
when we got female literacy
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我們才看到婦女讀寫能力
09:39
one generation later.
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大幅度提升所帶來的好處。
09:41
You have to realize that the investments we do in progress
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各位必須瞭解，為國家進步發展而投入的投資，
09:44
are long-term investments.
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將是一段漫長的投資，
09:46
It's not about just five years --
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不是短短五年的投資，
09:48
it's long-term investments.
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而是更長遠的投資。
09:50
And Sweden never reached [the] Millennium Development Goal rate,
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瑞典從來沒有達到千禧發展目標所要求的水準，
09:53
3.1 percent when I calculated.
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我計算了一下，只有3.1%。
09:55
So we are off track -- that's what Sweden is.
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所以我們不合格，哈！這就是瑞典。
09:58
But you don't talk about it so much.
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不過不要告訴別人。
10:00
We want others to be better than we were, and indeed, others have been better.
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我們希望其他國家能有更好的表現，而其他國家也真的有更好的表現，
10:03
Let me show you Thailand,
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我們來看看泰國，
10:05
see what a success story, Thailand from the 1960s --
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看看他們成功的故事，泰國從1960年代
10:07
how they went down here
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下降到這裡，
10:09
and reached almost the same child mortality levels as Sweden.
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他們的孩童死亡率幾乎和瑞典一樣。
10:12
And I'll give you another story -- Egypt,
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還有另一個例子，埃及，
10:15
the most hidden, glorious success in public health.
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他們在公衛領域的成就是最突出的，但也最不為人知。
10:18
Egypt was up here in 1960,
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埃及在1960年代的時候是在這上面，
10:20
higher than Congo.
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比剛果還要高，
10:22
The Nile Delta was a misery for children
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尼羅河三角洲附近的孩童，
10:25
with diarrheal disease
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深受腹瀉、瘧疾
10:27
and malaria and a lot of problems.
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和其他疾病困擾。
10:29
And then they got the Aswan Dam. They got electricity in their homes,
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後來他們建了亞斯望水庫，每個人家裡都有電力，
10:32
they increased education
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教育水準提升，
10:34
and they got primary health care.
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也有了基礎的醫療體系，
10:36
And down they went, you know.
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所以死亡率就下降了。
10:38
And they got safer water, they eradicated malaria.
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他們的飲用水更為清潔，瘧疾也絕跡了，
10:41
And isn't it a success story.
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這真的是一個成功的典範，
10:43
Millennium Development Goal rates for child mortality
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讓我們看到千禧發展目標所訂的孩童死亡率，
10:46
is fully possible.
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是完全有可能達到的。
10:48
And the good thing is
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好消息是，
10:50
that Ghana today is going with the same rate
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迦納現在也以和埃及一樣快的速度
10:52
as Egypt did at its fastest.
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降低孩童的死亡率；
10:55
Kenya is now speeding up.
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肯亞正在加速追趕。
10:57
Here we have a problem.
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但我們有個問題，
10:59
We have a severe problem in countries which are at a standstill.
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有些國家的死亡率仍維持在相同的水準，這是嚴重的問題。
11:03
Now, let me now bring you to a wider picture,
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現在，我讓各位看看一張更宏觀的圖表，
11:06
a wider picture of child mortality.
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有關孩童死亡率的圖表，
11:08
I'm going to show you the relationship
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我要讓各位知道，在這個軸上的
11:10
between child mortality on this axis here --
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孩童死亡率，
11:13
this axis here is child mortality --
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這個軸是孩童死亡率，
11:16
and here I have the family size.
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和家庭人數多寡之間的關係，
11:19
The relationship between child mortality and family size.
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也就是孩童死亡率和家中小孩數之間的關係。
11:21
One, two, three, four children per woman:
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一、二、三、四，這是每位婦女所生的小孩數，
11:23
six, seven, eight children per woman.
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還有人生了六、七、八個小孩。
11:25
This is, once again, 1960 --
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我們再來看看1960年代，
11:27
50 years ago.
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也就是50年前，
11:29
Each bubble is a country --
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每一個圓點代表一個國家，
11:31
the color, you can see, a continent.
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顏色則代表該國所處的大陸，
11:33
The dark blue here is sub-Saharan Africa.
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像是深藍色就代表撒哈拉沙漠以南非洲，
11:35
And the size of the bubble is the population.
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圓點的大小代表該國的人口數。
11:39
And these are
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這些是
11:41
the so-called "developing" countries.
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大家眼中的「開發中國家」，
11:43
They had high, or very high, child mortality
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他們的孩童死亡率非常高，
11:46
and family size, six to eight.
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家中小孩有六到八個。
11:49
And the ones over there,
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在這裡的這些國家，
11:51
they were so-called Western countries.
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則是一般人眼中的西方國家，
11:53
They had low child mortality
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孩童死亡率很低，
11:55
and small families.
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小孩人數也很少。
11:57
What has happened?
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這是怎麼一回事？
11:59
What I want you [to do] now is to see with your own eyes
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我要你們親眼看看
12:02
the relation between fall in child mortality
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孩童死亡率的下降，
12:05
and decrease in family size.
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是和家中小孩數減少有關的。
12:08
I just want not to have any room for doubt --
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我要你們每一個人
12:10
you have to see that for yourself.
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都親眼看看這張圖的變化，
12:12
This is what happened. Now I start the world.
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就是這麼一回事。現在，世界在改變，
12:15
Here we come down with the eradication of
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教育水準提升了，
12:17
smallpox, better education,
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天花也不見了，教育水準
12:19
health service.
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和醫療體系都提升了，
12:21
It got down there -- China comes into the Western box here.
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大家都下降到這裡了，現在中國擠進西方國家框框裡了，
12:24
And here Brazil is in the Western Box.
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巴西也加入了，
12:26
India is approaching. The first African countries coming into the Western box,
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印度就快進來了，有一個非洲國家也進到了這個區塊，
12:29
and we get a lot a new neighbors.
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我們一下子多了好多新鄰居，
12:31
Welcome to a decent life.
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歡迎大家一起提升生活品質，
12:33
Come on. We want everyone down there.
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來吧！每個人都下來這裡吧！
12:35
This is the vision we have, isn't it.
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這是我們的夢想，不是嗎？
12:37
And look now, the first African countries here are coming in.
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看看，首次有非洲國家進到這個區塊了，
12:40
There we are today.
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這就是現在這個世界的樣子。
12:43
There is no such thing
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根本沒有什麼
12:45
as a "Western world" and "developing world."
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「西方國家」和「開發中國家」的差別。
12:47
This is the report from [the] U.N.,
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這一份是聯合國的報告，
12:49
which came out on Friday.
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星期五才剛出刊的，
12:51
It's very good -- "Levels and Trends in Child Mortality" --
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這份報告非常棒：「孩童死亡率及其趨勢」，
12:54
except this page.
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除了這一頁以外。
12:56
This page is very bad;
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這一頁很糟，
12:58
it's a categorization of countries.
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它把國家做了分類，
13:01
It labels "developing countries," -- I can read from the list here --
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標題是「開發中國家」--我可以把名單讀出來，
13:04
developing countries: Republic of Korea -- South Korea.
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開發中國家：南韓...
13:07
Huh?
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啊？
13:09
They get Samsung, how can they be [a] developing country?
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他們有三星這種大公司，怎麼可能是開發中國家？
13:12
They have here Singapore.
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還有，新加坡...
13:14
They have the lowest child mortality in the world, Singapore.
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新加坡的孩童死亡率可是全世界最低的耶！
13:16
They bypassed Sweden five years ago,
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他們在五年前就超越了瑞典，
13:18
and they are labeled a developing country.
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竟然還只是開發中國家？
13:20
They have here Qatar.
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卡達也在名單上，
13:22
It's the richest country in the world with Al Jazeera.
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卡達可是全世界最有錢的國家耶...他們還擁有半島電視台耶！
13:24
How the heck could they be [a] developing country?
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卡達怎麼會是開發中國家？
13:26
This is crap.
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這簡直胡說八道！
13:28
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
13:31
The rest here is good -- the rest is good.
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報告的其他部分都很好，都很好。
13:33
We have to have a modern concept,
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我們的觀念應該要跟得上時代，
13:35
which fits to the data.
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才能讀得懂這些資料。
13:37
And we have to realize
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我們必須瞭解，
13:39
that we are all going to into this, down to here.
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所有的國家都應該下降到這個水準，
13:42
What is the importance now with the relations here.
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重要的是要瞭解其中的關係。
13:45
Look -- even if we look in Africa --
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看看，即使我們把焦點放在非洲，
13:47
these are the African countries.
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這些就是非洲國家，
13:49
You can clearly see the relation with falling child mortality
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你還是可以清楚地看到，在孩童死亡率下降的同時，
13:52
and decreasing family size,
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家中小孩數也在減少，
13:54
even within Africa.
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就算在非洲也一樣，
13:56
It's very clear that this is what happens.
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這是一個很明顯的事實。
13:58
And a very important piece of research came out on Friday
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西雅圖的健康評估機構在星期五
14:01
from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation in Seattle
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發表了一篇很重要的研究報告，
14:05
showing that almost 50 percent
347
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他們指出，孩童死亡率之所以下降，
14:07
of the fall in child mortality
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有一半可以歸功於
14:09
can be attributed to female education.
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女性接受教育所帶來的影響。
14:12
That is, when we get girls in school,
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也就是說，當我們把女孩們送到學校去，
14:15
we'll get an impact 15 to 20 years later,
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15到20年後，我們就會看到實際的效用發生，
14:17
which is a secular trend which is very strong.
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這種影響的效用是很強烈的。
14:20
That's why we must have that long-term perspective,
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所以我們得把眼光放遠，
14:23
but we must measure the impact
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至少要以十年
14:25
over 10-year periods.
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做為衡量的區間。
14:27
It's fully possible
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要讓這些國家的
14:29
to get child mortality down in all of these countries
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孩童死亡率下降，是絕對可能的，
14:31
and to get them down in the corner
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他們一定能下降到這個角落，
14:33
where we all would like to live together.
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達到和其他國家一樣的水準。
14:37
And of course, lowering child mortality
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當然，從人道主義的觀點來看，
14:40
is a matter of utmost importance
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孩童死亡率的降低
14:43
from humanitarian aspects.
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有其絕對的重要性，
14:45
It's a decent life for children,
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我們所談的，
14:47
we are talking about.
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是要保障孩童基本的生活品質。
14:49
But it is also a strategic investment
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這當然也算是我們全體人類
14:52
in the future of all mankind,
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對未來的重要策略性投資，
14:54
because it's about the environment.
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因為這攸關環境的現況。
14:57
We will not be able to manage the environment
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如果我們不能控制全世界的人口成長，
14:59
and avoid the terrible climate crisis
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我們就無法保有良好的環境，
15:01
if we don't stabilize the world population.
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也就無法避免可怕的氣候變遷，
15:03
Let's be clear about that.
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我們一定得清楚瞭解這一點。
15:05
And the way to do that,
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要達到這個目標，
15:07
that is to get child mortality down, get access to family planning
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首先我們得降低孩童死亡率，提倡家庭計畫，
15:10
and behind that drive female education.
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而且讓女性接受教育，
15:13
And that is fully possible. Let's do it.
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我們絕對有可能辦到，就這麼辦吧！
15:15
Thank you very much.
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謝謝各位！
15:17
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionaryIn Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus.
Why you should listen
Even the most worldly and well-traveled among us have had their perspectives shifted by Hans Rosling. A professor of global health at Sweden's Karolinska Institute, his work focused on dispelling common myths about the so-called developing world, which (as he pointed out) is no longer worlds away from the West. In fact, most of the Third World is on the same trajectory toward health and prosperity, and many countries are moving twice as fast as the west did.
What set Rosling apart wasn't just his apt observations of broad social and economic trends, but the stunning way he presented them. Guaranteed: You've never seen data presented like this. A presentation that tracks global health and poverty trends should be, in a word: boring. But in Rosling's hands, data sings. Trends come to life. And the big picture — usually hazy at best — snaps into sharp focus.
Rosling's presentations were grounded in solid statistics (often drawn from United Nations and World Bank data), illustrated by the visualization software he developed. The animations transform development statistics into moving bubbles and flowing curves that make global trends clear, intuitive and even playful. During his legendary presentations, Rosling took this one step farther, narrating the animations with a sportscaster's flair.
Rosling developed the breakthrough software behind his visualizations through his nonprofit Gapminder, founded with his son and daughter-in-law. The free software — which can be loaded with any data — was purchased by Google in March 2007. (Rosling met the Google founders at TED.)
Rosling began his wide-ranging career as a physician, spending many years in rural Africa tracking a rare paralytic disease (which he named konzo) and discovering its cause: hunger and badly processed cassava. He co-founded Médecins sans Frontièrs (Doctors without Borders) Sweden, wrote a textbook on global health, and as a professor at the Karolinska Institut in Stockholm initiated key international research collaborations. He's also personally argued with many heads of state, including Fidel Castro.
Hans Rosling passed away in February 2017. He is greatly missed.
Hans Rosling | Speaker | TED.com