TEDGlobal 2009
Paul Romer: Why the world needs charter cities
Paul Romers radikale ide: Autonome byer
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Hvordan kan et hærget land bryde ud af fattigdom, hvis det er fanget i et system med dårlige regler? Økonomen Paul Romer fremfører en vovet ide: "autonome byer", administrative zoner af bystørrelse, som er regeret af en koalition af nationer. (Kan Guantanamo-bugten blive det nye Hong Kong?)
Paul Romer - Chief Economist and Senior Vice President, World Bank
Paul Romer's research on catch-up growth in low- and middle-income countries has emphasized the importance of government policies that encourage orderly urban expansion. Full bio
Paul Romer's research on catch-up growth in low- and middle-income countries has emphasized the importance of government policies that encourage orderly urban expansion. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:18
Take a look at this picture.
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Prøv at se på det her billede.
00:21
It poses a very fascinating puzzle for us.
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Det illustrerer en meget fascinerende gåde for os.
00:24
These African students are doing their homework
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Disse afrikanske studerende laver deres lektier
00:28
under streetlights at the airport in the capital city
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under gadelamperne ved hovedstadens lufthavn,
00:31
because they don't have any electricity at home.
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fordi de ikke har noget elektricitet derhjemme.
00:35
Now, I haven't met these particular students,
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Altså, jeg har ikke mødt lige nøjagtig de her studerende,
00:37
but I've met students like them.
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men jeg har mødt studerende ligesom dem.
00:39
Let's just pick one -- for example, the one in the green shirt.
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Lad os bare tage en af dem, for eksempel, ham i den grønne trøje.
00:43
Let's give him a name, too: Nelson.
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Lad os også give ham et navn: Nelson.
00:45
I'll bet Nelson has a cellphone.
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Jeg vil vædde med at Nelson har en mobiltelefon.
00:48
So here is the puzzle.
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Så her kommer gåden.
00:50
Why is it that Nelson has access
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Hvorfor er det at Nelson har adgang
00:52
to a cutting-edge technology, like the cellphone,
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til en moderne teknologi, som mobiltelefonen,
00:55
but doesn't have access to a 100-year-old technology
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men ikke har adgang til en 100 år gammel teknologi,
00:58
for generating electric light in the home?
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der kan generere elektrisk lys i hans hjem?
01:02
Now, in a word, the answer is "rules."
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Svaret, i et ord, er "regler".
01:05
Bad rules can prevent the kind of win-win solution that's available
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Dårlige regler kan forhindre den win-win løsning, der er mulig,
01:10
when people can bring new technologies in
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når folk kan frembringe nye teknologier
01:13
and make them available to someone like Nelson.
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og gøre dem tilgængelige for en som Nelson.
01:16
What kinds of rules?
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Hvilke regler?
01:18
The electric company in this nation
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El selskabet i det her land
01:21
operates under a rule, which says that it has to sell
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opererer under en regel, som siger at det skal sælge
01:23
electricity at a very low, subsidized price --
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elektricitet til en meget lav, statsstøttet pris.
01:26
in fact, a price that is so low it loses money on every unit that it sells.
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Faktisk, en pris der er så lav, at det taber penge på hver enhed den sælger.
01:30
So it has neither the resources, nor the incentives,
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Så den har hverken ressourcerne, eller incitamenterne,
01:34
to hook up many other users.
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til at udbyde el til mange mennesker.
01:36
The president wanted to change this rule.
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Præsidenten ville ændre denne regel.
01:39
He's seen that it's possible to have a different set of rules,
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Han har set, at det er muligt at have et andet sæt regler,
01:42
rules where businesses earn a small profit,
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regler hvor virksomheder kan tjene en lille profit,
01:45
so they have an incentive to sign up more customers.
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så de har et incitament til at skaffe flere kunder.
01:47
That's the kind of rules that the cellphone company
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Det er den form for regler som mobiltelefon firmaet
01:51
that Nelson purchases his telephony from operates under.
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som Nelson har købt sin telefon hos, opererer under.
01:55
The president has seen how those rules worked well.
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Præsidenten har set, hvor godt de regler fungerede.
01:58
So he tried to change the rules for pricing on electricity,
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Så han prøvede at ændre reglerne for prissætning af elektricitet,
02:01
but ran into a firestorm of protest
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men han rendte ind i en mur af protester
02:03
from businesses and consumers
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fra virksomheder og forbrugere,
02:05
who wanted to preserve the existing subsidized rates.
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som ville bevare de eksisterende statsstøttede rater.
02:09
So he was stuck with rules that prevented him
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Så han hang på de regler, der forhindrede ham
02:13
from letting the win-win solution help his country.
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i at lade win-win løsningen hjælpe hans land.
02:18
And Nelson is stuck studying under the streetlights.
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Og Nelson er stadig nødsaget til at studere under gadelamperne.
02:23
The real challenge then, is to try to figure out
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Den virkelige udfordring er så, at prøve at finde ud af,
02:25
how we can change rules.
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hvordan vi kan ændre regler.
02:28
Are there some rules we can develop for changing rules?
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Er der nogle regler, vi kan udvikle til at hjælpe med at ændre regler?
02:32
I want to argue that there is a general abstract insight
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Jeg vil argumentere for, at der er en generel abstrakt indsigt
02:36
that we can make practical,
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som vi kan gøre praktisk,
02:38
which is that, if we can give more choices to people,
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hvilket er, at vi kan give flere muligheder for folket,
02:41
and more choices to leaders --
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og flere muligheder for ledere,
02:45
who, in many countries, are also people.
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som i mange lande, også er en del af folket.
02:48
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
02:51
But, it's useful to present the opposition between these two.
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Men det er brugbart at præsentere modsætningerne mellem de to.
02:55
Because the kind of choice you might want to give to a leader,
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Fordi de former for muligheder som du ville give en leder,
02:58
a choice like giving the president the choice
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en mulighed som at give præsidenten muligheden
03:00
to raise prices on electricity,
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for at hæve prisen på elektricitet,
03:03
takes away a choice that people in the economy want.
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ville fjerne en mulighed som folket i økonomien vil have.
03:06
They want the choice to be able to continue consuming
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De vil have muligheden for at blive ved med at forbruge
03:08
subsidized electric power.
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statsstøttet elektricitet.
03:11
So if you give just to one side or the other,
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Så hvis man kun giver til den ene eller den anden side,
03:13
you'll have tension or friction.
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så vil du have spændinger imellem dem.
03:16
But if we can find ways to give more choices to both,
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Hvis bare vi kan finde ud af at give flere muligheder til begge sider,
03:19
that will give us a set of rules
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der vil give os et sæt af regler,
03:21
for changing rules that get us out of traps.
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til at kunne ændre regler som får os ud af fælderne.
03:26
Now, Nelson also has access to the Internet.
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Nelson har også adgang til internettet.
03:29
And he says that if you want to see
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Og han siger at hvis du vil se
03:31
the damaging effects of rules,
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de skadende effekter af regler,
03:33
the ways that rules can keep people in the dark,
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den måde som regler kan holde folk i fanget i mørket,
03:35
look at the pictures from NASA of the earth at night.
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så se på billederne fra NASA af jorden om natten.
03:39
In particular check out Asia.
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Tag især et kig på Asien.
03:41
If you zoom in here,
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Hvis man zoomer ind her,
03:44
you can see North Korea, in outline here,
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så kan man se Nord Korea skitseret her,
03:46
which is like a black hole compared to its neighbors.
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det er som et sort hul sammenlignet med deres naboer.
03:49
Now, you won't be surprised to learn
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Du vil ikke blive overrasket over at finde ud af
03:51
that the rules in North Korea
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at de regler de har i Nord Korea
03:53
keep people there in the dark.
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holder folk fanget i mørket.
03:55
But it is important to recognize
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Men det er vigtigt at indse
03:57
that North Korea and South Korea
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at Nord Korea og Syd korea
03:59
started out with identical sets of rules
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startede med et identisk sæt af regler
04:02
in both the sense of laws and regulations,
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både i form af love og regulativer,
04:04
but also in the deeper senses of understandings,
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men også i dybere former som forståelser,
04:08
norms, culture, values and beliefs.
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normer, kultur, værdier og tro.
04:12
When they separated, they made choices
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Da de blev separeret tog de nogle valg
04:14
that led to very divergent paths
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som ledte dem ad meget forskellige veje
04:16
for their sets of rules.
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for deres sæt af regler.
04:18
So we can change -- we as humans can change the rules
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Så vi kan ændre, vi som mennesker, kan ændre de regler
04:21
that we use to interact with each other,
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som vi bruger til at interagere med hinanden
04:23
for better, or for worse.
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på godt og ondt.
04:27
Now let's look at another region, the Caribbean.
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Lad os nu kigge på en anden region, Caribien.
04:30
Zoom in on Haiti,
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Zoome ind på Haiti,
04:32
in outline here.
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som er skitseret her.
04:34
Haiti is also dark,
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Haiti er også mørklagt,
04:36
compared to its neighbor here, the Dominican Republic,
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sammenlignet med deres nabo, den Dominikanske Republik,
04:39
which has about the same number of residents.
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som har omkring samme antal indbyggere.
04:42
Both of these countries are dark compared to Puerto Rico,
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Begge disse lande er mørke sammenlignet med Puerto Rico,
04:45
which has half as many residents
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som har halvt så mange indbyggere
04:47
as either Haiti or the Dominican Republic.
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som Haiti og som den Domikanske Republik.
04:50
What Haiti warns us is that
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Det Haiti advarer os om er at
04:52
rules can be bad because governments are weak.
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regler kan være dårlige på grund af en svag regering.
04:56
It's not just that the rules are bad because
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Reglerne er ikke kun dårlige fordi
04:58
the government is too strong and oppressive, as in North Korea.
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regeringer er for stærke og undertrykkende, som i Nord Korea.
05:01
So that if we want to create environments with good rules,
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Så hvad hvis vi vil skabe miljøer med gode regler,
05:04
we can't just tear down.
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som man ikke bare kan fjerne.
05:06
We've got to find ways to build up, as well.
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Vi er nødt til også at finde måder at bygge op på.
05:10
Now, China dramatically demonstrates
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Kina demonstrerer ret dramatisk
05:13
both the potential and the challenges
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både potentialet og udfordringerne
05:15
of working with rules.
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ved at arbejde med regler.
05:18
Back in the beginning of the data presented in this chart,
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Tilbage i starten af de data der er vist i dette diagram,
05:21
China was the world's high-technology leader.
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var Kina verdensleder indenfor højteknologi.
05:24
Chinese had pioneered technologies like steel, printing, gunpowder.
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Kineserne skabt banebrydende teknologier som stål, printning, krudt.
05:29
But the Chinese never adopted, at least in that period,
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Men kineserne havde aldrig vedtaget, ihvertfald i den periode,
05:32
effective rules for encouraging the spread of those ideas --
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effektive regler til at opmuntre spredningen af de ideer, [for eksempel, aldrig opmuntret]
05:36
a profit motive that could have encouraged the spread.
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et profit incitament der kunne have opmuntret til en spredning.
05:38
And they soon adopted rules which
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Og de vedtog tidligt regler som
05:40
slowed down innovation
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bremsede innovationen
05:43
and cut China off from the rest of the world.
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og skar Kina af fra resten af verden.
05:45
So as other countries in the world innovated,
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Så mens andre lande i verden var innovative,
05:48
in the sense both of developing
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både i form af at udvikle
05:50
newer technologies,
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nye teknologier,
05:52
but also developing newer rules,
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men også ved at udvikle nye regler,
05:54
the Chinese were cut off from those advances.
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var kinesere holdt udenfor disse fremskridt.
05:58
Income there stayed stagnant,
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Indkomsten i Kina forblev stagnerende,
06:00
as it zoomed ahead in the rest of the world.
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mens den var opadgående i resten af verden.
06:03
This next chart looks at more recent data.
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Det næste diagram kigger på mere nutidig data.
06:06
It plots income, average income in China
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Det viser indkomst, gennemsnitsindkomsten i Kina
06:08
as a percentage of average income in the United States.
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som procent af gennemsnitsindkomsten i USA.
06:11
In the '50s and '60s you can see that it was hovering at about three percent.
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I 50'erne og 60'erne kan man se at den svævede omkring tre procent.
06:14
But then in the late '70s something changed.
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Men så i de sene 70'ere skete der noget.
06:17
Growth took off in China. The Chinese started catching up
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Væksten lettede i Kina. Kineserne begyndte hurtigt
06:20
very quickly with the United States.
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at indhente USA.
06:23
If you go back to the map at night, you can get a clue
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Hvis man går tilbage til kortet om natten, får man et hint
06:26
to the process that lead to the dramatic change in rules in China.
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om processen der førte til de dramatisk ændringer af regler i Kina.
06:29
The brightest spot in China,
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Det mest lysende punkt i Kina,
06:32
which you can see on the edge of the outline here,
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som du kan se på kanten af skitseringen her,
06:35
is Hong Kong.
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er Hong Kong.
06:37
Hong Kong was a small bit of China
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Hong Kong var en lille del af Kina
06:40
that, for most of the 20th century,
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som, gennem det meste af det 20. århundrede,
06:42
operated under a very different set of rules
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opererede under et meget anderledes sæt regler
06:44
than the rest of mainland China --
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end resten af Kina,
06:46
rules that were copied
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reglerne var kopieret
06:48
from working market economies of the time,
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fra fungerende markedsøkonomier på den tid,
06:50
and administered by the British.
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og administreret af briterne.
06:53
In the 1950s, Hong Kong was a place where
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I 50'erne, var Hong Kong et sted hvor
06:56
millions of people could go, from the mainland,
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millioner af mennesker kunne gå hen fra fastlandet,
06:58
to start in jobs like sewing shirts, making toys.
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for at starte i arbejde som at sy trøjer, lave legetøj.
07:03
But, to get on a process of increasing income,
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For at komme til en stigende indkomst og
07:06
increasing skills
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øgede kompetencer
07:08
led to very rapid growth there.
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der her førte til en hurtigt stigende vækst.
07:11
Hong Kong was also the model
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Hong Kong var også den model
07:13
which leaders like Deng Xiaoping
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som ledere ligesom Deng Xiaoping
07:16
could copy, when they decided to move
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kunne kopiere, da de besluttede at flytte
07:18
all of the mainland towards the market model.
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hele fastlandet mod et frit marked.
07:22
But Deng Xiaoping instinctively understood
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Men Deng Xiaoping forstod instinktivt
07:24
the importance of offering choices to his people.
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vigtigheden af at tilbyde muligheder til hans folk.
07:28
So instead of forcing everyone in China
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Så i stedet for at tvinge alle i Kina
07:31
to shift immediately to the market model,
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til med det samme at skifte til et frit marked,
07:33
they proceeded by creating some special zones
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gik de hen og skabte nogle specielle zoner,
07:36
that could do, in a sense, what Britain did:
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der på en måde kunne gøre, hvad Storbritannien gjorde,
07:38
make the opportunity to go work with the market rules
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gøre muligheden for at arbejde med markedsreglerne
07:40
available to the people who wanted to opt in there.
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tilgængelig for de mennesker der valgte at bo der.
07:43
So they created four special economic zones around Hong Kong:
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Så de oprettede fire specielle økonomiske zoner omkring Hong Kong.
07:46
zones where Chinese could come and work,
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Zoner hvor kinesere kunne komme og arbejde,
07:49
and cities grew up very rapidly there;
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og byer voksede meget hurtigt der,
07:51
also zones where foreign firms could come in
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også zoner hvor udenlandske firmaer kunne komme
07:54
and make things.
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og lave ting.
07:56
One of the zones next to Hong Kong has a city called Shenzhen.
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En af de zoner ved siden af Hong Kong har en by kaldet Shenzhen.
07:59
In that city there is a Taiwanese firm
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I den by er der et taiwanisisk firma
08:02
that made the iPhone that many of you have,
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der lavede den iPhone mange af jer har,
08:05
and they made it with labor from Chinese
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og de gjorde det med arbejdskraft fra kinesere
08:08
who moved there to Shenzhen.
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der flyttede til Shenzhen.
08:10
So after the four special zones,
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Så efter de fire specielle zoner,
08:12
there were 14 coastal cites
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var der 14 kystbyer,
08:14
that were open in the same sense,
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som var åbne på samme måde.
08:16
and eventually demonstrated successes
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Og til sidst blev successen bevist ved
08:19
in these places that people could opt in to,
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at på disse steder hvor folk kunne flytte hen,
08:21
that they flocked to because of the advantages they offered.
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flokkedes folk til på grund af de fordele der blev tilbudt der.
08:24
Demonstrated successes there led to a consensus for
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De beviste successer førte til en konsensus for
08:28
a move toward the market model for the entire economy.
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at rykke hele økonomien hen imod et frit marked.
08:33
Now the Chinese example shows us several points.
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Det kinesiske eksempel viser os flere pointer.
08:37
One is: preserve choices for people.
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Et er: bevar muligheder for folket.
08:40
Two: operate on the right scale.
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To: operer under det rigtige størrelsesforhold
08:42
If you try to change the rules in a village, you could do that,
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Du kan godt ændre reglerne i en landsby,
08:45
but a village would be too small
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men en landsby vil være for lille til at få de former
08:47
to get the kinds of benefits you can get if you have millions of people
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for fordele som man kan få, hvis du har millioner af mennesker,
08:49
all working under good rules.
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der alle arbejder under gode regler.
08:51
On the other hand, the nation is too big.
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På den anden side er en hel nation for stor.
08:54
If you try to change the rules in the nation,
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Hvis du prøver at ændre reglerne i en nation,
08:56
you can't give some people a chance
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kan du ikke give nogle folk chanchen for
08:58
to hold back, see how things turn out,
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at holde tilbage, se hvordan det går,
09:00
and let others zoom ahead and try the new rules.
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og lade andre tjekke de nye regler ud først.
09:03
But cities give you this opportunity
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Men byer giver den mulighed
09:05
to create new places,
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for at skabe nye steder,
09:07
with new rules that people can opt in to.
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med nye regler, som folk kan flytte til.
09:09
And they're large enough
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Og de er store nok til
09:11
to get all of the benefits that we can have
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at få alle fordelene som man kan få
09:13
when millions of us work together under good rules.
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når millioner af os arbejder sammen under gode regler.
09:17
So the proposal is that we
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Så forslaget er at vi
09:20
conceive of something called a charter city.
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forestiller os noget kaldet en autonom by.
09:23
We start with a charter that specifies
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Vi starter med et skema der viser
09:25
all the rules required
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alle de krævede regler
09:27
to attract the people who we'll need to build the city.
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for at tiltrække de folk som vi har brug for til at bygge byen.
09:31
We'll need to attract the investors
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Vi har behov for at tiltrække investorer
09:33
who will build out the infrastructure --
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som vil bygge infrastrukturen.
09:35
the power system, the roads, the port, the airport, the buildings.
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Skaffe el, veje, havn, lufthavn og bygningerne.
09:38
You'll need to attract firms,
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Man har behov for at tiltrække firmaer,
09:40
who will come hire the people who move there first.
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som vil ansætte de folk der først flytter dertil.
09:43
And you'll need to attract families,
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Og man har behov for at tiltrække familier,
09:45
the residents who will come and live there permanently,
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de beboere som vil komme og bo der permanent,
09:47
raise their children, get an education for their children,
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opdrage deres børn, give deres børn en uddannelse,
09:49
and get their first job.
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og få deres første job.
09:51
With that charter, people will move there.
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Under de her regler, vil folk flytte dertil.
09:54
The city can be built.
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Byen kan blive bygget.
09:56
And we can scale this model.
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Og vi kan skalere den her model
09:58
We can go do it over and over again.
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Vi kan gøre det igen og igen.
10:02
To make it work, we need good rules. We've already discussed that.
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For at få det til at virke, er der behov for gode regler. Det har vi allerede set.
10:05
Those are captured in the charter.
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De regler er vist i skemaet.
10:07
We also need the choices for people.
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Vi har også behov for muligheder til folket.
10:10
That's really built into the model
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Det er faktisk bygget ind i modellen
10:12
if we allow for the possibility of building cities
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hvis vi tillader muligheden for at bygge byer
10:15
on uninhabited land.
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på ubeboet land.
10:17
You start from uninhabited territory.
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Man kan starte fra ubeboet territorie.
10:19
People can come live under the new charter,
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Folk kan komme og leve under de nye regler.
10:21
but no one is forced to live under it.
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Men ingen er tvunget til at leve under dem.
10:24
The final thing we need are choices for leaders.
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Den sidste ting vi har behov er muligheder for ledere.
10:27
And, to achieve the kind of choices we want for leaders
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Og, for at opnå de former for muligheder vi vil have til vore ledere,
10:29
we need to allow for the potential for partnerships between nations:
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skal vi tillade potentielle partnerskaber mellem nationer.
10:33
cases where nations work together,
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Tilfælde hvor nationer arbejder sammen,
10:35
in effect, de facto,
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i praksis, måden hvorpå
10:37
the way China and Britain worked together
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Kina og Storbritannien arbejdede sammen
10:39
to build, first a little enclave of the market model,
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om at bygge først en lille enklave af et frit marked,
10:43
and then scale it throughout China.
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og derefter få det igennem hele Kina.
10:45
In a sense, Britain, inadvertently,
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På en måde har Storbritannien ubevidst
10:47
through its actions in Hong Kong,
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gennem deres handlinger i Hong Kong,
10:49
did more to reduce world poverty
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gjort mere for at reducere fattigdom i verden
10:52
than all the aid programs that we've undertaken
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end alle de bistandsprogrammer som vi har
10:54
in the last century.
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gennemført i det sidste århundrede.
10:56
So if we allow for these kind of partnerships
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Så hvis vi tillader disse former for partnerskaber
10:58
to replicate this again,
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for at kopiere dette,
11:00
we can get those kinds of benefits scaled throughout the world.
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så kan vi få de former for fordele spredt ud over hele verden.
11:04
In some cases this will involve a delegation of responsibility,
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I nogle tilfælde vil det involvere en uddelegering af ansvar,
11:08
a delegation of control from one country to another
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en uddelegering af kontrol, fra et land til andet
11:12
to take over certain kinds of administrative responsibilities.
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til at overtage bestemte former for administrative forpligtelser.
11:16
Now, when I say that,
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Når jeg siger det,
11:19
some of you are starting to think,
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tænker nogle af jer,
11:21
"Well, is this just bringing back colonialism?"
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"Bringer det her ikke kolonialismen tilbage?"
11:26
It's not. But it's important to recognize that the kind of emotions
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Nej, men det er vigtigt at anerkende at de følelser
11:30
that come up when we start to think about these things,
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der kommer frem når vi starter med at tænke på de ting,
11:32
can get in the way, can make us pull back,
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kan komme i vejen, kan trække os tilbage,
11:35
can shut down our ability,
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kan lukke ned for vores evne,
11:37
and our interest in trying to explore new ideas.
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og vores interesse til at prøve at udforske nye ideer.
11:40
Why is this not like colonialism?
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Hvorfor er det ikke kolonialisme?
11:42
The thing that was bad about colonialism,
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Det der var skidt ved kolonialisme,
11:45
and the thing which is residually bad in some of our aid programs,
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og det som er galt i nogle af vores støtteprogrammer,
11:49
is that it involved elements of
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er at det indeholdte elementer af
11:51
coercion and condescension.
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tvang og undertrykkelse.
11:54
This model is all about choices,
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Det handler alt sammen om valgmuligheder,
11:56
both for leaders and for the people who will live in these new places.
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både for lederne og de mennesker som vil leve i de nye byer.
12:00
And, choice is the antidote to coercion and condescension.
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Og, muligheder er modgiften til tvang og undertrykkelse.
12:04
So let's talk about how this could play out in practice.
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Lad os tale om hvordan det ville virke i praksis.
12:07
Let's take a particular leader, Raul Castro, who is the leader of Cuba.
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Lad os tage en bestemt leder, Raul Castro, som er lederen af Cuba.
12:10
It must have occurred to Castro
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Det må have været sket for Castro,
12:12
that he has the chance to do for Cuba
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at han havde chancen for at gøre for Cuba
12:15
what Deng Xiaoping did for China,
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hvad Deng Xiaoping gjorde for Kina,
12:17
but he doesn't have a Hong Kong there on the island in Cuba.
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men han har ikke et Hong Kong på øen Cuba.
12:21
He does, though, have a little bit of light down in the south
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Han har dog en lille smule lys nede i syden
12:25
that has a very special status.
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som har en meget speciel status.
12:27
There is a zone there, around Guantanamo Bay,
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Der er en zone der ved Guantanamo-bugten,
12:31
where a treaty gives the United States
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hvor en traktat giver USA
12:33
administrative responsibility
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administrativt ansvar
12:35
for a piece of land that's about twice the size of Manhattan.
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for et stykke land som er omkring dobbelt så stort som Manhattan.
12:38
Castro goes to the prime minister of Canada
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[Raul] Castro går hen til statsministeren i Canada
12:41
and says, "Look, the Yankees have a terrible PR problem.
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og siger, "Hør her, amerikanerne har et forfærdeligt PR problem.
12:45
They want to get out.
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De vil gerne ud.
12:47
Why don't you, Canada, take over?
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Så hvorfor tager du ikke over, Canada?
12:49
Build -- run a special administrative zone.
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Få en special administrativ zone op at stå.
12:53
Allow a new city to be built up there.
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Tillad en ny by at blive bygget der.
12:55
Allow many people to come in.
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Tillad mange mennesker at komme ind,
12:57
Let us have a Hong Kong nearby.
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og lad os have et Hong Kong tæt på.
12:59
Some of my citizens will move into that city as well.
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Nogle af mine indbyggere vil også flytte ind i byen.
13:02
Others will hold back. But this will be
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Nogle vil blive tilbage, men det vil være
13:04
the gateway that will connect
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porten som vil forbinde
13:06
the modern economy and the modern world
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den moderne økonomi og verden
13:08
to my country."
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sammen med mit land."
13:10
Now, where else might this model be tried?
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Så hvor ellers kan denne model blive afprøvet?
13:13
Well, Africa. I've talked with leaders in Africa.
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Afrika? Jeg har snakket med ledere i Afrika.
13:15
Many of them totally get the notion of a special zone
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Mange af dem er fuldstændig med på ideen om en special zone
13:19
that people can opt into as a rule.
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som folk kan slutte sig til.
13:22
It's a rule for changing rules.
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Det er en måde at ændre regler.
13:24
It's a way to create new rules, and let people opt-in
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Det er en måde at skabe nye regler, og lade folk slutte sig til
13:27
without coercion, and the opposition that coercion can force.
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uden tvang, og uden den modstand som tvang kan skabe.
13:31
They also totally get the idea that in some instances
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De er også fuldstændig med på at i nogle tilfælde
13:34
they can make more credible promises to long-term investors --
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kan de lave mere troværdige løfter til langsigtede investorer.
13:38
the kind of investors who will come build the port,
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Den slags investorer som vil komme bygge havnen og
13:40
build the roads, in a new city --
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bygge vejene i en ny by.
13:43
they can make more credible promises
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De kan lave mere troværdige løfter
13:45
if they do it along with a partner nation.
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hvis de gør det sammen med en partner nation.
13:47
Perhaps even in some arrangement
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Måske endda et arrangement
13:49
that's a little bit like an escrow account,
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som er en smule ligesom en betinget kontrakt,
13:51
where you put land in the escrow account
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hvor et stykke land bliver deponeret hos en tredjepart,
13:53
and the partner nation takes responsibility for it.
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hvorefter partnernationen tager ansvar for det.
13:56
There is also lots of land in Africa
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Der er masser af stykker land i Afrika
13:59
where new cities could be built.
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hvor nye byer kan blive bygget.
14:01
This is a picture I took when I was flying along the coast.
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Det her er et billede jeg tog mens jeg fløj langs kysten.
14:04
There are immense stretches of land like this --
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Der er enorme stykker land som dette,
14:06
land where hundreds of millions of people could live.
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land hvor hundrede af millioner af mennesker kunne bo.
14:09
Now, if we generalize this and think about
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Hvis vi generaliserer dette og tænker på
14:11
not just one or two charter cites, but dozens --
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ikke bare en eller to autonome byer, men et dusinvis.
14:14
cities that will help create places for the
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Byer som vil hjælpe med at skabe steder
14:18
many hundreds of millions, perhaps billions of people
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for de mange hundrede millioner, måske milliarder af mennesker
14:21
who will move to cities in the coming century --
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som vil flytte til byer i det kommende århundrede.
14:23
is there enough land for them?
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Er der nok land til dem?
14:25
Well, throughout the world, if we look at the lights at night,
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Hvis vi kigger over hele verden via kortet med lys om natten,
14:28
the one thing that's misleading is that, visually, it looks
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så er den ene ting der vildleder faktisk, at det ser ud som om,
14:30
like most of the world is already built out.
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at det meste af verden allerede er bebygget.
14:32
So let me show you why that's wrong.
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Så lad mig vise jer hvorfor det er forkert.
14:35
Take this representation of all of the land.
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Tag denne repræsentation af alt landet.
14:37
Turn it into a square that stands for
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Lav det til om til et kvadrat der står for
14:39
all the arable land on Earth.
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alt det dyrkbare land på Jorden.
14:41
And let these dots represent the land that's already taken up
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Og lad disse prikker stå for det land som allerede er fyldt
14:43
by the cities that three billion people now live in.
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op af de byer som tre milliarder mennesker nu bor i.
14:46
If you move the dots down to the bottom of the rectangle
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Hvis man flytter de prikker ned i bunden af rektanglet
14:49
you can see that the cities for the existing three billion urban residents
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så kan man se at byerne for de eksisterende tre milliarder byboere
14:53
take up only three percent of the arable land on earth.
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kun udfylder tre procent af den dyrkelige land på Jorden.
14:57
So if we wanted to build cities for another billion people,
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Så hvis man ville bygge byer til en milliard mennesker mere,
15:00
they would be dots like this.
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så ville prikkerne se sådan her ud.
15:02
We'd go from three percent of the arable land, to four percent.
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Vi ville gå fra tre procent af den dyrkelige jord, til fire procent.
15:05
We'd dramatically reduce the human footprint on Earth
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Vi ville kraftigt reducere det menneskelige aftryk på Jorden
15:09
by building more cities that people can move to.
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ved at bygge flere byer som folk kan flytte til.
15:11
And if these are cities governed by good rules,
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Og hvis disse byer er regeret med gode regler,
15:14
they can be cities where people are safe from crime,
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kan de blive byer hvor folk er sikre fra kriminalitet,
15:17
safe from disease and bad sanitation,
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sikre fra sygdomme og dårlige hygiejneforhold,
15:20
where people have a chance to get a job.
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hvor folk har en chance for at få et job.
15:22
They can get basic utilities like electricity.
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Hvor de kan få basale nødvendigheder som elektricitet.
15:24
Their kids can get an education.
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Hvor deres børn kan få en uddannelse.
15:27
So what will it take to get started
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Så hvad vil det kræve for at komme igang
15:29
building the first charter cities,
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med at bygge de første autonome byer,
15:31
scaling this so we build many more?
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og få gjort det så vi vil bygge mange flere?
15:33
It would help to have a manual.
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Det ville hjælpe at have en manual.
15:35
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
15:39
What university professors could do
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Hvad universitetsprofessorer kunne gøre
15:41
is write some details that might go into this manual.
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er at skrive nogle detaljer som måske kunne indgå i denne manual.
15:45
You wouldn't want to let us run the cities,
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Man ville ikke lade os drive byerne,
15:48
go out and design them.
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og gå ud og designe dem.
15:50
You wouldn't let academics out in the wild. (Laughter)
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Man ville ikke lukke akademikere ud i naturen. (Latter)
15:53
But, you could set us to work thinking about questions like,
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Men, det kunne få os til at tænke på spørgsmål som,
15:56
suppose it isn't just Canada
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forestil dig at det ikke bare er Canada
15:58
that does the deal with Raul Castro.
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der laver aftalen med Raul Castro.
16:01
Perhaps Brazil comes in as a participant,
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Måske kommer Brasilien også ind som en deltager,
16:04
and Spain as well. And perhaps Cuba wants to be
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og Spanien også. Og måske Cuba vil være
16:06
one of the partners in a four-way joint venture.
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en af partnerne i et firevejs foretagende.
16:09
How would we write the treaty to do that?
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Hvordan kunne vi skrive en traktat der kunne gøre det?
16:11
There is less precedent for that, but that could easily be worked out.
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Der er mindre precedens for det. Men det kunne nemt blive gjort.
16:14
How would we finance this?
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Hvordan ville vi finansiere dette?
16:16
Turns out Singapore and Hong Kong
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Det viser sig at Singapore og Hong Kong
16:18
are cities that made huge gains
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er byer der tjente stort på
16:20
on the value of the land that they owned when they got started.
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værdien af det land de ejede da de begyndte.
16:23
You could use the gains on the value of the land
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Man kunne bruge denne indtjening
16:25
to pay for things like the police, the courts,
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til at betale for ting som politi og retssystem.
16:28
but the school system and the health care system too,
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Men også uddannelsessystemet og sundhedsvæsenet,
16:30
which make this a more attractive place to live,
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som gør dette et mere attraktivt sted at bo.
16:33
makes this a place where people have higher incomes --
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Gør dette til et sted hvor folk har høje indkomster,
16:35
which, incidentally, makes the land more valuable.
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som, tilfældigvis, gør landet mere værdifuldt.
16:38
So the incentives for the people helping to construct this zone
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Så incitamenterne for menneskerne der hjælper med at
16:41
and build it, and set up the basic rules,
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grundlægge zonen og bygge den op, og sætter de basale regler,
16:44
go very much in the right direction.
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går rigtig meget i den rigtige retning.
16:46
So there are many other details like this.
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Der er mange andre detaljer som disse.
16:48
How could we have buildings that are
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Hvordan kan vi have boliger der har lave omkostninger
16:50
low cost and affordable for people who work
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og er til at betale for folk som arbejder i deres
16:52
in a first job, assembling something like an iPhone,
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første job, for eksempel at montere noget som en iPhone?
16:55
but make those buildings energy efficient,
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Men gør boligerne energi besparende,
16:57
and make sure that they are safe, so they don't fall down
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og gør dem sikre, så de ikke falder sammen
16:59
in an earthquake or a hurricane.
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i et jordskælv eller i en orkan.
17:02
Many technical details to be worked out,
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Der er mange tekniske detaljer at udarbejde,
17:04
but those of us who are already starting to pursue these things
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men mange af os som allerede er igang med at jagte de her ting
17:08
can already tell that there is no roadblock,
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kan allerede fortælle at der intet er i vejen,
17:10
there's no impediment, other than a failure of imagination,
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ingen forhindringer, andet end mangel på fantasi,
17:13
that will keep us from delivering on
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der vil holde os fra at skabe
17:15
a truly global win-win solution.
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en i sandhed global win-win løsning.
17:20
Let me conclude with this picture.
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Lad mig med dette billede konkludere
17:23
The reason we can be so well off,
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at grunden til at vi kan have det så godt,
17:25
even though there is so many people on earth,
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selvom der er så mange mennesker på Jorden,
17:27
is because of the power of ideas.
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er på grund af effekten af ideer.
17:30
We can share ideas with other people,
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Vi kan dele ideer med andre mennesker,
17:32
and when they discover them, they share with us.
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og når de opdager dem, kan de dele med os.
17:34
It's not like scarce objects,
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Det er ikke ligesom en mangelvare
17:36
where sharing means we each get less.
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hvor det at dele betyder at vi begge får mindre.
17:38
When we share ideas we all get more.
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Når vi deler ideer kan vi alle få mere.
17:41
When we think about ideas in that way,
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Når vi tænker på ideer på den måde,
17:43
we usually think about technologies.
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tænker vi typisk på teknologier.
17:45
But there is another class of ideas:
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Men der er en anden kategori af ideer:
17:47
the rules that govern how we interact with each other;
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reglerne der bestemmer hvordan vi fungerer sammen socialt.
17:50
rules like, let's have a tax system
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Regler som et skattesystem,
17:52
that supports a research university
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der støtter et forskingsuniversitet
17:54
that gives away certain kinds of knowledge for free.
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der giver bestemte former for viden væk gratis.
17:57
Let's have a system where we have ownership of land
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Lad os have et system hvor ejerskab af land
17:59
that is registered in a government office,
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der bliver registreret i et statskontor,
18:01
that people can pledge as collateral.
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kan blive stillet som kaution.
18:03
If we can keep innovating on our space of rules,
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Hvis vi kan blive ved med at innovere vores regler,
18:05
and particularly innovate in the sense
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og især innovere i form af
18:07
of coming up with rules for changing rules,
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at komme op med regler for at ændre regler,
18:09
so we don't get stuck with bad rules,
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så vi ikke sidder fast i dårlige regler,
18:12
then we can keep moving progress forward
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så kan vi blive ved med at rykke udviklingen fremad
18:15
and truly make the world a better place,
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og virkelig gøre verden til et bedre sted,
18:17
so that people like Nelson and his friends
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så folk som Nelson og hans venner
18:20
don't have to study any longer under the streetlights. Thank you.
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ikke længere behøver at læse under gadelamperne. Mange tak.
18:23
(Applause)
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(Applaus)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Paul Romer - Chief Economist and Senior Vice President, World BankPaul Romer's research on catch-up growth in low- and middle-income countries has emphasized the importance of government policies that encourage orderly urban expansion.
Why you should listen
Paul Romer believes in the power of ideas. He first studied how to speed up the discovery and implementation of new technologies. But to address the big problems we'll face this century -- insecurity, harm to the environment, global poverty -- new technologies will not be enough. We must also speed up the discovery and implementation of new rules, of new ideas about how people interact.
Throughout human history, big improvements in systems of rules took place when new governments entered the scene. In today's world, this process has been largely shut down. To bring it back to life, Romer proposes that we create new cities where people can go to escape from bad rules and opt in to new and better ones. With better rules, people can be safe, self-interest can protect the environment, and investment can bring families all the resources that the modern world has to offer.
Romer took office as the World Bank's Chief Economist and Senior Vice President in October 2016.
Paul Romer | Speaker | TED.com