TEDGlobal 2009
Paul Romer: Why the world needs charter cities
保羅羅默（Paul Romer）的先進概念：特區市
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一個受限於不良體制的落後國家，如何才能掙脫貧困的枷鎖？經濟學家Paul Romer揭示了一個大膽的想法：特區市，亦即某些市級行政區域的管轄權由國際聯盟所屬。（關塔那摩灣能夠成為下一個香港嗎？）
Paul Romer - Chief Economist and Senior Vice President, World Bank
Paul Romer's research on catch-up growth in low- and middle-income countries has emphasized the importance of government policies that encourage orderly urban expansion. Full bio
Paul Romer's research on catch-up growth in low- and middle-income countries has emphasized the importance of government policies that encourage orderly urban expansion. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:18
Take a look at this picture.
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請看一下這張照片
00:21
It poses a very fascinating puzzle for us.
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擺在我們眼前的是一個很妙的謎題
00:24
These African students are doing their homework
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這些非洲學生正在做功課
00:28
under streetlights at the airport in the capital city
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地點是在首都機場的路燈下
00:31
because they don't have any electricity at home.
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因為他們家裡沒有電
00:35
Now, I haven't met these particular students,
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我並沒有見過照片裡的這些學生
00:37
but I've met students like them.
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但我碰過像他們一樣的學生
00:39
Let's just pick one -- for example, the one in the green shirt.
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讓我們挑一位做例子, 就那位穿綠衣服的好了
00:43
Let's give him a name, too: Nelson.
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我們姑且稱呼他為尼爾森吧
00:45
I'll bet Nelson has a cellphone.
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我想尼爾森應該有手機
00:48
So here is the puzzle.
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所以謎題來了:
00:50
Why is it that Nelson has access
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為什麼尼爾森可以擁有
00:52
to a cutting-edge technology, like the cellphone,
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像手機這樣尖端的科技產品
00:55
but doesn't have access to a 100-year-old technology
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卻無法享受老早就有的科技
00:58
for generating electric light in the home?
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好讓自己家裡有電燈用?
01:02
Now, in a word, the answer is "rules."
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簡單來說, 謎底就是: 體制
01:05
Bad rules can prevent the kind of win-win solution that's available
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不良的制度會阻礙雙贏辦法的產生
01:10
when people can bring new technologies in
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譬如即使有人可以把新科技帶進（非洲）
01:13
and make them available to someone like Nelson.
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像尼爾森這樣的學生也無法受惠
01:16
What kinds of rules?
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那麼這些（不良）制度是什麼呢？
01:18
The electric company in this nation
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這個國家的電力公司
01:21
operates under a rule, which says that it has to sell
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遵循一套營運的制度，就是在政府補貼的情況下
01:23
electricity at a very low, subsidized price --
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跟用戶收取極低的電費
01:26
in fact, a price that is so low it loses money on every unit that it sells.
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事實上，這個電費低到每賣一度電，就虧一度電
01:30
So it has neither the resources, nor the incentives,
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所以公司既無資源、也無動機
01:34
to hook up many other users.
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去幫許多用戶配電
01:36
The president wanted to change this rule.
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於是總統想改變這個制度
01:39
He's seen that it's possible to have a different set of rules,
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他見過也因此知道體制的改革是可行的
01:42
rules where businesses earn a small profit,
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改變後的體制可以幫助企業獲利
01:45
so they have an incentive to sign up more customers.
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使他們有動機去服務更多客戶
01:47
That's the kind of rules that the cellphone company
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提供尼爾森手機服務的電信業者
01:51
that Nelson purchases his telephony from operates under.
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就是在這樣的體制下運作的
01:55
The president has seen how those rules worked well.
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總統知道這種體制的好處
01:58
So he tried to change the rules for pricing on electricity,
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所以想如法炮製改變電價制定的方式
02:01
but ran into a firestorm of protest
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但他面臨的卻是來自企業及客戶
02:03
from businesses and consumers
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排山倒海的抗議
02:05
who wanted to preserve the existing subsidized rates.
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這些人想維持現有的補助制度
02:09
So he was stuck with rules that prevented him
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因此阻撓總統，使他無法藉由雙贏辦法
02:13
from letting the win-win solution help his country.
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來幫助他的國家
02:18
And Nelson is stuck studying under the streetlights.
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而尼爾森也只得困在路燈下讀書
02:23
The real challenge then, is to try to figure out
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由此看來，我們真正的挑戰在於找出
02:25
how we can change rules.
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改變體制的辦法
02:28
Are there some rules we can develop for changing rules?
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那麼我們可以發展甚麼“改變制度的制度”呢？
02:32
I want to argue that there is a general abstract insight
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我的論點是，我們可以將一個抽象的想法
02:36
that we can make practical,
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化為實際行動
02:38
which is that, if we can give more choices to people,
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亦即提供人民更多選擇
02:41
and more choices to leaders --
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也給統治者更多選擇
02:45
who, in many countries, are also people.
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雖然在很多國家裡統治者就是人民
02:48
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
02:51
But, it's useful to present the opposition between these two.
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不過區分這二者還是有必要的
02:55
Because the kind of choice you might want to give to a leader,
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因為有時候你想給統治者的那種選擇
02:58
a choice like giving the president the choice
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譬如在賦予總統
03:00
to raise prices on electricity,
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提高電價的抉擇權時
03:03
takes away a choice that people in the economy want.
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你同時也剝奪了人民想要的某種經濟自由
03:06
They want the choice to be able to continue consuming
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那就是他們希望能選擇繼續享有
03:08
subsidized electric power.
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政府補貼的電價
03:11
So if you give just to one side or the other,
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所以如果你只提供某一方選擇的自由
03:13
you'll have tension or friction.
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你將面臨對立或是摩擦
03:16
But if we can find ways to give more choices to both,
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但如果我們可以想辦法給雙方更多的選擇
03:19
that will give us a set of rules
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我們就能發展出一套制度
03:21
for changing rules that get us out of traps.
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來改變體制，救民於水火
03:26
Now, Nelson also has access to the Internet.
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尼爾森也有網路用
03:29
And he says that if you want to see
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他說如果你想見識
03:31
the damaging effects of rules,
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(不良)體制的破壞力
03:33
the ways that rules can keep people in the dark,
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是如何使人民生活在黑暗中
03:35
look at the pictures from NASA of the earth at night.
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不妨看看美國太空總署拍攝的地球夜景
03:39
In particular check out Asia.
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特別是亞洲
03:41
If you zoom in here,
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如果拉近一點來看這裡
03:44
you can see North Korea, in outline here,
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你可以看到北韓這塊
03:46
which is like a black hole compared to its neighbors.
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跟她的鄰國比起來就像是個黑洞
03:49
Now, you won't be surprised to learn
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我想你不會對這樣的發現感到驚訝
03:51
that the rules in North Korea
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就是北韓的體制
03:53
keep people there in the dark.
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如何陷他們的人民於黑暗之中
03:55
But it is important to recognize
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但值得我們正視的是
03:57
that North Korea and South Korea
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北韓和南韓
03:59
started out with identical sets of rules
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開始時用的是同一套制度
04:02
in both the sense of laws and regulations,
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無論在法條還是一般規範上
04:04
but also in the deeper senses of understandings,
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甚至更深層的方面：認知、
04:08
norms, culture, values and beliefs.
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社會習俗、文化、價值觀以及信念
04:12
When they separated, they made choices
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但當他們分裂時，他們各自做了決定
04:14
that led to very divergent paths
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因此在體制面走上了
04:16
for their sets of rules.
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截然不同的道路
04:18
So we can change -- we as humans can change the rules
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所以我們是可以改變的；人類可以改變
04:21
that we use to interact with each other,
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彼此互動的準則
04:23
for better, or for worse.
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儘管結果是未知數
04:27
Now let's look at another region, the Caribbean.
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現在讓我們來看看另一區：加勒比海
04:30
Zoom in on Haiti,
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鏡頭拉到海地
04:32
in outline here.
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框起來的這裡
04:34
Haiti is also dark,
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海地也很暗
04:36
compared to its neighbor here, the Dominican Republic,
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與她的鄰居多明尼加相比
04:39
which has about the same number of residents.
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二國的人口數差不多
04:42
Both of these countries are dark compared to Puerto Rico,
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也都比波多黎各暗
04:45
which has half as many residents
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而波多黎各的人口數卻只有
04:47
as either Haiti or the Dominican Republic.
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海地或多明尼加的一半
04:50
What Haiti warns us is that
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所以海地提醒我們的是
04:52
rules can be bad because governments are weak.
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體制之所以不良，有可能是因為政府的軟弱
04:56
It's not just that the rules are bad because
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不見得都是因為強權或政府專制
04:58
the government is too strong and oppressive, as in North Korea.
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像北韓的情況那樣
05:01
So that if we want to create environments with good rules,
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所以如果我們想創造一個有良好體制的環境
05:04
we can't just tear down.
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我們不能只是破壞
05:06
We've got to find ways to build up, as well.
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還要想辦法建設
05:10
Now, China dramatically demonstrates
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現在，中國戲劇性地向我們展示了
05:13
both the potential and the challenges
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與體制周旋時所遇到的
05:15
of working with rules.
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危機與轉機
05:18
Back in the beginning of the data presented in this chart,
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讓我們回這份資料的一開頭
05:21
China was the world's high-technology leader.
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中國曾引領世界高科技
05:24
Chinese had pioneered technologies like steel, printing, gunpowder.
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中國人的科技像煉鋼、印刷、火藥等都是先驅
05:29
But the Chinese never adopted, at least in that period,
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然而中國人從未採用，至少在當時
05:32
effective rules for encouraging the spread of those ideas --
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一套有效的制度來推動想法的傳播，例如
05:36
a profit motive that could have encouraged the spread.
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他們從未由利益觀點出發，來推動思想的傳播
05:38
And they soon adopted rules which
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而且他們很快就採用一套制度
05:40
slowed down innovation
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來放慢自己創新的腳步
05:43
and cut China off from the rest of the world.
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使中國與世界隔絕
05:45
So as other countries in the world innovated,
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所以當其他國家開始創新
05:48
in the sense both of developing
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不僅發展
05:50
newer technologies,
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新科技
05:52
but also developing newer rules,
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更建立新制度時
05:54
the Chinese were cut off from those advances.
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中國卻無緣參與這些進步
05:58
Income there stayed stagnant,
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國民所得停滯不前
06:00
as it zoomed ahead in the rest of the world.
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也不再是世界舞台的焦點
06:03
This next chart looks at more recent data.
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下張圖表是比較近期的資料
06:06
It plots income, average income in China
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顯示的是中國的平均所得
06:08
as a percentage of average income in the United States.
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佔美國平均所得的百分比
06:11
In the '50s and '60s you can see that it was hovering at about three percent.
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在50、60年代時你們可以看到這個數字大約是3％
06:14
But then in the late '70s something changed.
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但到了70年代末期，情況有些改變了
06:17
Growth took off in China. The Chinese started catching up
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中國經濟開始起飛
06:20
very quickly with the United States.
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中國人開始迎頭趕上美國
06:23
If you go back to the map at night, you can get a clue
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如果你們回過來看一下這個夜景圖，就會發現
06:26
to the process that lead to the dramatic change in rules in China.
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是什麼樣的過程帶動中國體制的大轉變
06:29
The brightest spot in China,
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中國最亮的這點
06:32
which you can see on the edge of the outline here,
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就是你們在輪廓邊上看到的這點
06:35
is Hong Kong.
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是香港
06:37
Hong Kong was a small bit of China
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香港本來是中國領土中很小的一點
06:40
that, for most of the 20th century,
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在20世紀大部分的時候
06:42
operated under a very different set of rules
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都是遵循一套很不一樣的體制在運作
06:44
than the rest of mainland China --
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與中國其他地方都不同
06:46
rules that were copied
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這套制度是仿效
06:48
from working market economies of the time,
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當時盛行的, 由英國主導的
06:50
and administered by the British.
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市場經濟體制
06:53
In the 1950s, Hong Kong was a place where
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在50年代, 香港是一個
06:56
millions of people could go, from the mainland,
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成千上萬中國人都可以去
06:58
to start in jobs like sewing shirts, making toys.
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打工的地方, 譬如成衣業、玩具業
07:03
But, to get on a process of increasing income,
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而這原本只是為了增加收入
07:06
increasing skills
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增進技能的過程
07:08
led to very rapid growth there.
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卻帶動了地方上快速的成長
07:11
Hong Kong was also the model
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香港當時也是一個範本
07:13
which leaders like Deng Xiaoping
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是讓中國領導人如鄧小平
07:16
could copy, when they decided to move
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可以拿來複製的一個對象，當他們決定
07:18
all of the mainland towards the market model.
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在整個中國大陸推行市場經濟
07:22
But Deng Xiaoping instinctively understood
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不過鄧小平直覺地了解到
07:24
the importance of offering choices to his people.
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提供人民選擇的重要性
07:28
So instead of forcing everyone in China
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因此與其強迫所有人
07:31
to shift immediately to the market model,
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立刻轉而支持市場經濟模式
07:33
they proceeded by creating some special zones
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不如從設立一些特區著手
07:36
that could do, in a sense, what Britain did:
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從某方面來說，類似英國人採用的辦法
07:38
make the opportunity to go work with the market rules
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使機會與市場體制結合
07:40
available to the people who wanted to opt in there.
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讓想參與的民眾有地方可以發揮
07:43
So they created four special economic zones around Hong Kong:
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因此他們在香港周圍建了四個經濟特區
07:46
zones where Chinese could come and work,
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讓中國人民可以到這些地方工作
07:49
and cities grew up very rapidly there;
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於是城市很快地發展起來
07:51
also zones where foreign firms could come in
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外國企業同樣也可以到這些特區
07:54
and make things.
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設點、生產製造
07:56
One of the zones next to Hong Kong has a city called Shenzhen.
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在香港旁邊的這些特區裡有個城市 － 深圳
07:59
In that city there is a Taiwanese firm
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有台灣企業在那裡設廠
08:02
that made the iPhone that many of you have,
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生產在座很多人都在使用的iPhone
08:05
and they made it with labor from Chinese
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而他們就是利用從中國其他地方來到深圳
08:08
who moved there to Shenzhen.
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打工的這些勞動力
08:10
So after the four special zones,
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所以繼這四個特區之後
08:12
there were 14 coastal cites
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又有14個沿海城市
08:14
that were open in the same sense,
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依循相同的模式發展起來
08:16
and eventually demonstrated successes
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最後，這些地方的成功
08:19
in these places that people could opt in to,
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就是人民可以選擇
08:21
that they flocked to because of the advantages they offered.
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接受它們提供的有利條件來到這些地方工作
08:24
Demonstrated successes there led to a consensus for
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更成功促成了全國性的共識
08:28
a move toward the market model for the entire economy.
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使整體經濟向市場模式靠攏
08:33
Now the Chinese example shows us several points.
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中國的例子顯示了以下幾點
08:37
One is: preserve choices for people.
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第一：保留人民選擇的權力
08:40
Two: operate on the right scale.
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第二：運作的規模要選對
08:42
If you try to change the rules in a village, you could do that,
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如果你想改變一個村落的體制，你可以這麼做
08:45
but a village would be too small
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但村落這個單位太小了
08:47
to get the kinds of benefits you can get if you have millions of people
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對一個有上億人口的國家來說，想要透過改變村落
08:49
all working under good rules.
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來改善一國的體制，恐怕很難成功
08:51
On the other hand, the nation is too big.
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另一方面，以國家為單位又太大
08:54
If you try to change the rules in the nation,
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如果你想一下子改變一國的體制
08:56
you can't give some people a chance
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就無法給那些暫時不想改變的人一個機會
08:58
to hold back, see how things turn out,
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多觀望一會兒，看看事情的結果如何
09:00
and let others zoom ahead and try the new rules.
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同時又能讓其他想嘗試新制度的人放手去做
09:03
But cities give you this opportunity
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而以城市為單位卻能給你這個機會
09:05
to create new places,
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去創立新地點
09:07
with new rules that people can opt in to.
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藉由新制度讓人民來此從事經濟活動
09:09
And they're large enough
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而且城市作為改變的單位也夠大
09:11
to get all of the benefits that we can have
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當成千上萬人在新體制下工作
09:13
when millions of us work together under good rules.
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這規模足以讓我們獲得所有預期的好處
09:17
So the proposal is that we
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所以我的提議是
09:20
conceive of something called a charter city.
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建構一個叫做“特區市”的東西
09:23
We start with a charter that specifies
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我們從一個囊括各項細則的整體規劃開始
09:25
all the rules required
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制定各項必需的制度
09:27
to attract the people who we'll need to build the city.
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來吸引建造這座城市所需的人力
09:31
We'll need to attract the investors
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我們會需要吸引投資者
09:33
who will build out the infrastructure --
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這些人將投資興建各項基礎建設
09:35
the power system, the roads, the port, the airport, the buildings.
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電力系統、道路、港口、機場、及樓房
09:38
You'll need to attract firms,
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你會需要吸引企業
09:40
who will come hire the people who move there first.
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他們所雇用的人力將是這城市第一批移入的居民
09:43
And you'll need to attract families,
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然後你會需要吸引家家戶戶
09:45
the residents who will come and live there permanently,
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願意搬來成為永久居民的人
09:47
raise their children, get an education for their children,
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在這裡養育子女
09:49
and get their first job.
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並開始他們的第一份工作
09:51
With that charter, people will move there.
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一旦有了整體規劃，人群會開始移入
09:54
The city can be built.
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城市就可以被建造起來
09:56
And we can scale this model.
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然後我們可以評估這個模式
09:58
We can go do it over and over again.
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進而不斷重複這個模式
10:02
To make it work, we need good rules. We've already discussed that.
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為了成功，我們需要好的制度。這點剛已經討論過了
10:05
Those are captured in the charter.
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也已經包含在所謂的整體規劃裡
10:07
We also need the choices for people.
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另外我們還需要提供人民許多選擇
10:10
That's really built into the model
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這也是這個模式的真諦
10:12
if we allow for the possibility of building cities
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如果我們接受在無人之地
10:15
on uninhabited land.
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造市的可能性
10:17
You start from uninhabited territory.
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你著手開發無人之地
10:19
People can come live under the new charter,
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人們可以搬來按照新的規劃生活
10:21
but no one is forced to live under it.
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但沒有一個人是被迫的
10:24
The final thing we need are choices for leaders.
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最後我們需要的是給領導者選擇
10:27
And, to achieve the kind of choices we want for leaders
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而為了使領導者做出符合我們期望的選擇
10:29
we need to allow for the potential for partnerships between nations:
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我們需要發展國際合作的可能性
10:33
cases where nations work together,
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創造國與國之間
10:35
in effect, de facto,
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有效的合作模式
10:37
the way China and Britain worked together
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就像從前中國和英國之間的合作
10:39
to build, first a little enclave of the market model,
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先在一個小小的殖民地試行市場經濟模式
10:43
and then scale it throughout China.
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然後再推行到全中國
10:45
In a sense, Britain, inadvertently,
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從這個方面來看，英國倒是無意間
10:47
through its actions in Hong Kong,
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藉由她在香港所行的措施
10:49
did more to reduce world poverty
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減少了世界貧窮
10:52
than all the aid programs that we've undertaken
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所得的成果比上個世紀
10:54
in the last century.
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所有援助計畫加起來還要大
10:56
So if we allow for these kind of partnerships
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所以如果我們願意讓這樣的合作模式
10:58
to replicate this again,
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再度重現
11:00
we can get those kinds of benefits scaled throughout the world.
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我們可以使全世界都受惠
11:04
In some cases this will involve a delegation of responsibility,
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在某些情況下這種模式當然也包含了權力的分配
11:08
a delegation of control from one country to another
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一國將統治權下放給另一國
11:12
to take over certain kinds of administrative responsibilities.
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使其能行使某些特定的行政權
11:16
Now, when I say that,
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當我提到這點
11:19
some of you are starting to think,
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在座有些開始會想
11:21
"Well, is this just bringing back colonialism?"
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“這豈不是讓殖民主義死灰復燃？”
11:26
It's not. But it's important to recognize that the kind of emotions
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當然不是。不過正視這樣的情緒是很重要的
11:30
that come up when we start to think about these things,
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因為當我們開始思考這些事情
11:32
can get in the way, can make us pull back,
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那樣的情緒會扯我們的後腿
11:35
can shut down our ability,
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消耗我們的能力
11:37
and our interest in trying to explore new ideas.
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和探索新想法的意願
11:40
Why is this not like colonialism?
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為甚麼這跟殖民主義不同？
11:42
The thing that was bad about colonialism,
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殖民主義不好的地方在於
11:45
and the thing which is residually bad in some of our aid programs,
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其實今天我們有些援助計畫也有這個遺毒
11:49
is that it involved elements of
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就是它具有
11:51
coercion and condescension.
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強制和優越的元素
11:54
This model is all about choices,
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而我們的模式則完全關乎選擇
11:56
both for leaders and for the people who will live in these new places.
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在這些新地方的領導者與人民同樣都有選擇
12:00
And, choice is the antidote to coercion and condescension.
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而“選擇”正是化解強制和優越的良方
12:04
So let's talk about how this could play out in practice.
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所以讓我們來談談如何落實這個想法
12:07
Let's take a particular leader, Raul Castro, who is the leader of Cuba.
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讓我們以古巴領導人卡斯楚為例
12:10
It must have occurred to Castro
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卡斯楚一定也想過
12:12
that he has the chance to do for Cuba
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他有機會為古巴做到
12:15
what Deng Xiaoping did for China,
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像鄧小平為中國做到的事
12:17
but he doesn't have a Hong Kong there on the island in Cuba.
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然而古巴並沒有像香港那樣的小島
12:21
He does, though, have a little bit of light down in the south
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但他還是在南部一個小點那看見契機
12:25
that has a very special status.
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那個地方有著非常特別的地位
12:27
There is a zone there, around Guantanamo Bay,
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在關塔那摩灣周圍有一區
12:31
where a treaty gives the United States
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依照二國協定，美國
12:33
administrative responsibility
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在那裡有行政權
12:35
for a piece of land that's about twice the size of Manhattan.
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地方差不多是曼哈頓的二倍大
12:38
Castro goes to the prime minister of Canada
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卡斯楚跑去找加拿大總理
12:41
and says, "Look, the Yankees have a terrible PR problem.
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對他說：“欸，美國佬的人際關係糟透了
12:45
They want to get out.
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他們想退出
12:47
Why don't you, Canada, take over?
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你們加拿大何不接手呢？
12:49
Build -- run a special administrative zone.
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治理一個特別行政區
12:53
Allow a new city to be built up there.
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在那裡建造一座新城市
12:55
Allow many people to come in.
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鼓勵許多人移居
12:57
Let us have a Hong Kong nearby.
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讓我們附近能有一個香港
12:59
Some of my citizens will move into that city as well.
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我們的一些國民也會移居那座城市
13:02
Others will hold back. But this will be
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其他人會觀望
13:04
the gateway that will connect
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但這將是一座橋梁
13:06
the modern economy and the modern world
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能讓我國與現代化經濟
13:08
to my country."
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和世界接軌“。
13:10
Now, where else might this model be tried?
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這個模式還可以在哪裡試行呢？
13:13
Well, Africa. I've talked with leaders in Africa.
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我想是非洲。我已經與一些非洲領導人談過
13:15
Many of them totally get the notion of a special zone
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他們大都能理解特區的想法
13:19
that people can opt into as a rule.
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讓人民可以自由參與的制度
13:22
It's a rule for changing rules.
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正是可以"改變制度的制度"
13:24
It's a way to create new rules, and let people opt-in
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它可以創造新體制, 讓人民自由參與
13:27
without coercion, and the opposition that coercion can force.
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而非強制性的, 因此也不會引發抗爭
13:31
They also totally get the idea that in some instances
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他們也完全理解, 在某些情況下
13:34
they can make more credible promises to long-term investors --
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他們甚至能對長期投資者做出更有保障的承諾
13:38
the kind of investors who will come build the port,
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而這些投資者正是能建港口
13:40
build the roads, in a new city --
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並在新城市裡造橋鋪路的人
13:43
they can make more credible promises
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如果他們能與另一個國家合夥
13:45
if they do it along with a partner nation.
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便能做出更有保障的承諾
13:47
Perhaps even in some arrangement
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也許透過一些安排
13:49
that's a little bit like an escrow account,
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有點像信託管理帳戶
13:51
where you put land in the escrow account
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你把土地放在信託管理帳戶裡
13:53
and the partner nation takes responsibility for it.
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然後交由合夥的國家管理
13:56
There is also lots of land in Africa
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非洲有很多的土地
13:59
where new cities could be built.
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可以用來建造新城市
14:01
This is a picture I took when I was flying along the coast.
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這是一張我沿著海岸飛行時照的照片
14:04
There are immense stretches of land like this --
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像這樣一大片延伸出去的土地有很多
14:06
land where hundreds of millions of people could live.
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可以讓成千上萬的人居住
14:09
Now, if we generalize this and think about
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現在我們約略地來想一想：
14:11
not just one or two charter cites, but dozens --
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如果我們所考慮的不是一、二個特區市
14:14
cities that will help create places for the
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而是好幾個能為數億人創造
14:18
many hundreds of millions, perhaps billions of people
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居住地方的城市，也許下個世紀
14:21
who will move to cities in the coming century --
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就會有數十億人移居到這些城市去
14:23
is there enough land for them?
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我們有足夠的土地容納他們嗎？
14:25
Well, throughout the world, if we look at the lights at night,
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當我們看到全世界這些夜晚的燈光
14:28
the one thing that's misleading is that, visually, it looks
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有一件事可能會誤導我們，就是表面看起來
14:30
like most of the world is already built out.
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世界上大部分的地區都已被開發
14:32
So let me show you why that's wrong.
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但我要告訴大家為何這是個誤解
14:35
Take this representation of all of the land.
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這個代表所有的土地
14:37
Turn it into a square that stands for
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把它變成一個方塊
14:39
all the arable land on Earth.
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代表地球上所有的可耕地
14:41
And let these dots represent the land that's already taken up
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然後這些點代表的
14:43
by the cities that three billion people now live in.
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是擁有30億城市人口的已開發地
14:46
If you move the dots down to the bottom of the rectangle
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如果你把這些點移到這個長方形的底部
14:49
you can see that the cities for the existing three billion urban residents
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你會發現這些有30億人口的城市
14:53
take up only three percent of the arable land on earth.
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只佔了地球上所有可耕地面積的3％
14:57
So if we wanted to build cities for another billion people,
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所以如果我們想再為數十億人建造城市
15:00
they would be dots like this.
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那些城市看起來也就像這些點
15:02
We'd go from three percent of the arable land, to four percent.
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所佔的可耕地面積將從3％升到4％
15:05
We'd dramatically reduce the human footprint on Earth
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透過建造更多適合人居的城市
15:09
by building more cities that people can move to.
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我們將大幅減少人類在地表上留下的足跡
15:11
And if these are cities governed by good rules,
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而且如果這些城市是依照良好的體制運作
15:14
they can be cities where people are safe from crime,
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城市的居民將免受犯罪、
15:17
safe from disease and bad sanitation,
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疾病、及公共衛生不良的威脅
15:20
where people have a chance to get a job.
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城市也會提供他們工作的機會
15:22
They can get basic utilities like electricity.
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他們可以享有譬如電力這樣的基礎設施
15:24
Their kids can get an education.
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他們的孩子可以受教育
15:27
So what will it take to get started
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那麼要建造特區市
15:29
building the first charter cities,
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我們該如何著手
15:31
scaling this so we build many more?
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並評估成效，好建造更多這樣的城市呢？
15:33
It would help to have a manual.
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要是有本（傻瓜也能建城市）說明書就好了
15:35
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
15:39
What university professors could do
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大學教授們會做的
15:41
is write some details that might go into this manual.
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就是為這本說明書撰寫一些使用細則
15:45
You wouldn't want to let us run the cities,
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所以你不會想讓我們管理這些城市的
15:48
go out and design them.
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更別說設計它們了
15:50
You wouldn't let academics out in the wild. (Laughter)
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你們不會想讓所謂的學者們胡搞瞎搞的（笑聲）
15:53
But, you could set us to work thinking about questions like,
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但是，你們可以讓我們去思考一些問題
15:56
suppose it isn't just Canada
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譬如，假設不只加拿大
15:58
that does the deal with Raul Castro.
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跟卡斯楚之間有這個協定
16:01
Perhaps Brazil comes in as a participant,
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如果巴西也參一腳
16:04
and Spain as well. And perhaps Cuba wants to be
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再加上西班牙，然後也許古巴想成為
16:06
one of the partners in a four-way joint venture.
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四邊合作的一員
16:09
How would we write the treaty to do that?
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那麼我們該如何草擬這個協定呢？
16:11
There is less precedent for that, but that could easily be worked out.
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即便沒有前例可循，要完成也不是太難
16:14
How would we finance this?
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錢從哪裡來？
16:16
Turns out Singapore and Hong Kong
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新加坡跟香港
16:18
are cities that made huge gains
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是二個很會賺錢的城市
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on the value of the land that they owned when they got started.
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他們一開始是靠炒地皮
16:23
You could use the gains on the value of the land
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然後用賺來的錢
16:25
to pay for things like the police, the courts,
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支付如警察、法院等費用
16:28
but the school system and the health care system too,
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以及學校和健保
16:30
which make this a more attractive place to live,
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好吸引更多人來居住
16:33
makes this a place where people have higher incomes --
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並使這個地方的居民能有高所得
16:35
which, incidentally, makes the land more valuable.
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進而使土地更值錢
16:38
So the incentives for the people helping to construct this zone
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因此有好條件，自然吸引人來建設
16:41
and build it, and set up the basic rules,
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發展這塊區域，並建立基礎制度
16:44
go very much in the right direction.
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一切就能步上正軌
16:46
So there are many other details like this.
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其他很多細節也像這樣
16:48
How could we have buildings that are
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譬如我們如何提供
16:50
low cost and affordable for people who work
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低成本的住房給才剛開始工作的人
16:52
in a first job, assembling something like an iPhone,
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例如iPhone的組裝工人？
16:55
but make those buildings energy efficient,
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這些住房還要節能
16:57
and make sure that they are safe, so they don't fall down
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而且安全
16:59
in an earthquake or a hurricane.
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不會因為地震或是颱風而倒下
17:02
Many technical details to be worked out,
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這有很多技術上的細節尚待處理
17:04
but those of us who are already starting to pursue these things
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不過我們這群已經打算追求這些事的人
17:08
can already tell that there is no roadblock,
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早已發現到除了放棄想像
17:10
there's no impediment, other than a failure of imagination,
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沒有其他東西可以阻礙我們
17:13
that will keep us from delivering on
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傳播一個真正的
17:15
a truly global win-win solution.
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全球性的雙贏辦法
17:20
Let me conclude with this picture.
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讓我用這張照片做個總結
17:23
The reason we can be so well off,
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今天我們能夠這麼幸福
17:25
even though there is so many people on earth,
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儘管地球上人口這麼多
17:27
is because of the power of ideas.
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都是因為“想法”的力量
17:30
We can share ideas with other people,
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我們可以跟別人分享想法
17:32
and when they discover them, they share with us.
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當別人有新想法，他們也跟我們分享
17:34
It's not like scarce objects,
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這與稀有物品的概念不同
17:36
where sharing means we each get less.
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一經分享每個人獲得的部份就變少
17:38
When we share ideas we all get more.
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當我們分享的是想法時，所有人都獲益更多
17:41
When we think about ideas in that way,
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而我們提到想法時
17:43
we usually think about technologies.
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通常想到的是科技
17:45
But there is another class of ideas:
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但還有另一類想法
17:47
the rules that govern how we interact with each other;
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指的是主導人與人之間互動的體制
17:50
rules like, let's have a tax system
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例如我們來訂個賦稅制
17:52
that supports a research university
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用以支撐一個研究型大學
17:54
that gives away certain kinds of knowledge for free.
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使這個大學能免費提供某些知識
17:57
Let's have a system where we have ownership of land
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或者一個土地制
17:59
that is registered in a government office,
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讓人民需要的時候
18:01
that people can pledge as collateral.
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可以把土地抵押給政府
18:03
If we can keep innovating on our space of rules,
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如果我們能不斷在制度上創新
18:05
and particularly innovate in the sense
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特別是在開發
18:07
of coming up with rules for changing rules,
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可以“改變制度的制度”時
18:09
so we don't get stuck with bad rules,
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我們就不會卡在不良的制度上
18:12
then we can keep moving progress forward
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而可以不斷進步
18:15
and truly make the world a better place,
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真正使這個世界變得更好
18:17
so that people like Nelson and his friends
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使尼爾森和他的朋友
18:20
don't have to study any longer under the streetlights. Thank you.
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再也不用在路燈下讀書了。謝謝。
18:23
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Paul Romer - Chief Economist and Senior Vice President, World BankPaul Romer's research on catch-up growth in low- and middle-income countries has emphasized the importance of government policies that encourage orderly urban expansion.
Why you should listen
Paul Romer believes in the power of ideas. He first studied how to speed up the discovery and implementation of new technologies. But to address the big problems we'll face this century -- insecurity, harm to the environment, global poverty -- new technologies will not be enough. We must also speed up the discovery and implementation of new rules, of new ideas about how people interact.
Throughout human history, big improvements in systems of rules took place when new governments entered the scene. In today's world, this process has been largely shut down. To bring it back to life, Romer proposes that we create new cities where people can go to escape from bad rules and opt in to new and better ones. With better rules, people can be safe, self-interest can protect the environment, and investment can bring families all the resources that the modern world has to offer.
Romer took office as the World Bank's Chief Economist and Senior Vice President in October 2016.
Paul Romer | Speaker | TED.com