TEDxClaremontColleges
Talithia Williams: Own your body's data
Talithia Williams: Posjedujte svoje tjelesne podatke
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Nove vrste viosko tehnoloških uređaja za samokontrolu (mjerenje krvnog tlaka, spavanja, koraka po danu) čine se dizajnirani za kompetetivne atletičare. Ali Talithia Williams, statističarka, objašnjava kako bi svi mi trebali mjeriti i snimati jednostavne podatke o našem tijelu svaki dan -- jer naši osobni podatci mogu pokazati puno više no što bi čak i naši doktori mogli znati.
Talithia Williams - Statistician
Talithia Williams builds statistical models that study the spatial and temporal structure of data. Full bio
Talithia Williams builds statistical models that study the spatial and temporal structure of data. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
As a kid I always loved information
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Kao dijete, uvijek sam voljela informacije
00:15
that I could get from data
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koje sam mogla dobiti iz podataka
00:17
and the stories that could be told with numbers.
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i priča koje su mogle
biti ispričane brojevima.
biti ispričane brojevima.
Sjećam se, kad sam odrastala,
bila bih frustrirana
bila bih frustrirana
00:20
I remember, growing up, I'd be frustrated at
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00:22
how my own parents would lie to me using numbers.
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kad bi mi roditelji
lagali koristeći brojeve.
lagali koristeći brojeve.
00:28
"Talithia, if I've told you once
I've told you a thousand times."
I've told you a thousand times."
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"Talithia, ako smo ti rekli jednom,
rekli smo ti tisuću puta."
rekli smo ti tisuću puta."
00:33
No dad, you've only told me 17 times
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Ne, tata, rekao si mi samo 17 puta,
00:37
and twice it wasn't my fault. (Laughter)
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a dva puta nisam ni bila kriva. (Smijeh)
Mislim da je to jedan od razloga
zbog kojih sam doktorirala statistiku.
zbog kojih sam doktorirala statistiku.
00:40
I think that is one of the reasons I got a Ph.D. in statistics.
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00:43
I always wanted to know,
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Oduvijek sam željela znati
00:44
what are people trying to hide with numbers?
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što ljudi pokušavaju sakriti brojevima.
00:47
As a statistician,
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Kao statističar,
00:48
I want people to show me the data
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želim da mi ljudi pokažu podatke
00:52
so I can decide for myself.
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kako bih sama mogla odlučiti.
00:55
Donald and I were pregnant with our third child
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Donald i ja smo bili
trudni s našim trećim djetetom
trudni s našim trećim djetetom
00:58
and we were at about 41 and a half weeks,
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otprilike 41 i pol tjedan,
01:00
what some of you may refer to as being overdue.
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što bi neki od vas protumačili
kao prenašanje trudnoće.
kao prenašanje trudnoće.
01:04
Statisticians, we call that
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Mi, statističari, to zovemo
01:06
being within the 95 percent confidence interval.
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ostajanjem unutar 95
posto intervala pouzdanosti.
posto intervala pouzdanosti.
01:08
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
01:10
And at this point in the process
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U ovom dijelu tog procesa
01:12
we had to come in every couple of days
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morali smo doći svakih par dana
kako bismo radili stres-test na djetetu,
01:15
to do a stress test on the baby,
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01:16
and this is just routine,
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a to je samo rutina.
01:18
it tests whether or not the baby
is feeling any type of undue stress.
is feeling any type of undue stress.
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Provjerava osjeća li, ili ne,
dijete bilo kakav neprimjeren stres.
dijete bilo kakav neprimjeren stres.
01:22
And you are rarely, if ever, seen by your actual doctor,
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A vas rijetko, ako ikad,
pregleda vaš liječnik.
pregleda vaš liječnik.
01:26
just whoever happens to be
working at the hospital that day.
working at the hospital that day.
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već tkogod radi u bolnici taj dan.
01:29
So we go in for a stress test and after 20 minutes
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Tako smo otišli na
stres-test i nakon 20 minuta
stres-test i nakon 20 minuta
01:32
the doctor comes out and he says,
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doktor ulazi i kaže:
01:35
"Your baby is under stress, we need to induce you."
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"Vaše je dijete pod stresom,
moramo inducirati porod."
moramo inducirati porod."
01:41
Now, as a statistician, what's my response?
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Koji je bio moj odgovor kao statističar?
01:45
Show me the data!
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Pokaži mi podatke!
01:49
So then he proceeds to tell us
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Pa nam je rekao
01:52
the baby's heart rate trace went from 18 minutes,
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kako je trag rada srca
djeteta trajao 18 minuta,
djeteta trajao 18 minuta,
01:54
the baby's heart rate was in the normal zone
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i tada je rad srca bio u zoni normale.
01:56
and for two minutes it was in what appeared to be
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Nakon toga je dvije minute bilo u
01:59
my heart rate zone and I said,
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zoni rada mog srca pa sam rekla,
02:03
"Is it possible that maybe this was my heart rate?
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"Je li moguće da je ovo rad moga srca?
02:05
I was moving around a little bit,
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Kretala sam se,
02:07
it's hard to lay still on your back,
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teško je ležati mirno na leđima 20 minuta
02:09
41 weeks pregnant for 20 minutes.
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kad si trudan 41 tjedan.
02:12
Maybe it was shifting around."
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Možda se pomicalo."
02:14
He said, "Well, we don't want to take any chances."
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Rekao je: "Ne želimo riskirati."
Rekla sam, u redu.
02:19
I said okay.
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Rekla sam: "Što kad bih
bila trudna 36 tjedana
bila trudna 36 tjedana
02:20
I said, "What if I was at 36 weeks
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02:22
with this same data?
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s istim podatcima?
02:24
Would your decision be to induce?"
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Biste li i tada inducirali porod?"
02:28
"Well, no, I would wait until you were at least
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"Ne, čekao bih dok niste barem
trudni 8 tjedana,
a vi ste trudni gotovo 42,
a vi ste trudni gotovo 42,
02:31
38 weeks, but you are almost 42,
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02:33
there is no reason to leave that baby inside,
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nema razloga da ostavimo dijete unutra,
02:35
let's get you a room."
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nađimo vam sobu."
02:37
I said, "Well, why don't we just do it again?
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Rekla sam, "Zašto to ne ponovimo?
02:44
We can collect more data.
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Možemo skupiti više podataka.
02:45
I can try to be really still for 20 minutes.
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Mogu pokušati biti mirna 20 minuta.
02:48
We can average the two and see
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Možemo napraviti prosjek
ta dva mjerenja i vidjeti
ta dva mjerenja i vidjeti
02:51
what that means. (Laughter)
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što to znači. (Smijeh)
02:53
And he goes,
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A on nastavi:
02:57
"Ma'am, I just don't want you to have a miscarriage."
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"Gospođo, samo ne želim
da dobijete spontani pobačaj."
da dobijete spontani pobačaj."
03:04
That makes three of us.
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Nismo ni mi to željeli.
03:07
And then he says,
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Zatim je rekao:
03:08
"Your chances of having a miscarriage double
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"Šanse za pobačajem se udvostručavaju
03:12
when you go past your due date. Let's get you a room."
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kad prijeđete termin. Nađimo vam sobu."
03:16
Wow. So now as a statistician, what's my response?
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Vau. Kao statističar,
koji je bio moj odgovor?
koji je bio moj odgovor?
03:22
Show me the data!
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Pokaži mi podatke!
Čovječe, govorimo o šansama,
03:24
Dude, you're talking chances,
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bavim se šansama cijelo vrijeme,
govori mi o šansama.
govori mi o šansama.
03:25
I do chances all day long, tell me all about chances.
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03:27
Let's talk chances. (Laughter)
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Pričajmo o šansama. (Smijeh)
03:29
Let's talk chances.
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Pričajmo o šansama.
03:31
So I say, "Okay, great.
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Rekla sam: "OK, odlično.
03:32
Do I go from a 30-percent
chance to a 60-percent chance?
chance to a 60-percent chance?
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Idem li od 30% do 60% vjerojatnosti?
03:36
Where are we here with this miscarriage thing?
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Gdje smo s tim pobačajem?
03:39
And he goes, "Not quite, but it doubles,
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A on kaže: "Ne baš, ali se udvostručuje,
03:42
and we really just want what's best for the baby."
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a mi samo želimo što je najbolje za dijete."
03:47
Undaunted, I try a different angle.
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Pokušala sam drugi pristup.
03:49
I said, "Okay, out of 1,000 full-term pregnant women,
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Rekla sam: "OK, od 1000 trudnica,
03:55
how many of them are going to miscarry
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koliko njih će pobaciti
03:57
just before their due date?
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tik prije termina?"
03:59
And then he looks at me and looks at Donald,
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Pogledao me i pogledao je Donalda
04:02
and he goes, about one in 1,000.
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i kaže, otprilike jedna od 1000.
04:06
I said, "Okay, so of those 1,000 women, how many
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Rekla sam: "OK, od tih 1000 žena, koliko će
04:09
are going to miscarry just after their due date?"
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njih pobaciti tik poslije termina?"
04:14
"About two." (Laughter)
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"Otprilike dvije." (Smijeh)
04:18
I said, "Okay, so you are telling me that my chances
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Rekla sam: "OK, kažete mi kako vjerojatnost
04:20
go from a 0.1-percent chance
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raste od 0.1 posto
04:24
to a 0.2-percent chance."
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do 0.2 posto."
04:28
Okay, so at this point the data is not convincing us
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OK, zasad nas podatci ne uvjeravaju kako
04:30
that we need to be induced,
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trebamo potaknuti porod,
04:32
and so then we proceed to have a conversation
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tako da nastavljamo razgovarati
04:34
about how inductions lead to a higher rate
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o tome kako poticanje
poroda dovodi do veće stope
poroda dovodi do veće stope
04:36
of Cesarean sections, and if at all
possible we'd like to avoid that.
possible we'd like to avoid that.
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carskih rezova, a kako bismo
to vrlo rado htjeli izbjeći.
to vrlo rado htjeli izbjeći.
04:40
And then I said,
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Tada sam rekla
04:42
"And I really don't think my due date is accurate."
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"Ne mislim ni da mi je termin prezican."
04:45
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
04:47
And so this really stunned him
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Ovo ga je zateklo
04:50
and he looked sort of puzzled
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te je izgledao zbunjeno
04:52
and I said, "You may not know this,
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pa sam rekla: "Možda ovo ne znate,
04:54
but pregnancy due dates are calculated
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ali termini kraja trudnoće računaju se
04:55
assuming that you have a standard 28-day cycle,
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uz pretpostavku da ciklusi traju 28 dana,
04:58
and my cycle ranges —
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a moji ciklusi variraju —
04:59
sometimes it's 27, sometimes it's up to 38 —
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od 27 do 38 dana —
05:03
and I have been collecting the data to prove it.
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a skupljala sam podatke
kako bih to dokazala.
kako bih to dokazala.
05:06
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
05:10
And so we ended up leaving the hospital
that day without being induced.
that day without being induced.
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Otišli smo iz bolnice
taj dan bez indukcije.
taj dan bez indukcije.
05:16
We actually had to sign a waiver
to walk out of the hospital.
to walk out of the hospital.
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Morali smo potpisati dokument kako smo
otišli u suprotnosti sa savjetom liječnika.
otišli u suprotnosti sa savjetom liječnika.
05:22
And I'm not advocating that you not listen to your doctors,
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Ne savjetujem kako ne
trebate slušati liječnike,
trebate slušati liječnike,
05:25
because even with our first child,
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jer smo s našim prvim djetetom
05:27
we were induced at 38 weeks; cervical fluid was low.
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bili inducirani u 38. tjednu
zbog malo cervikalne tekućine.
zbog malo cervikalne tekućine.
05:31
I'm not anti-medical intervention.
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Nisam protiv medicinskih intervencija.
05:33
But why were confident to leave that day?
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Zbog čega smo bili sigurni
kad smo otišli taj dan?
kad smo otišli taj dan?
05:36
Well, we had data that told a different story.
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Imali smo podatke koji
su govorili drugu priču.
su govorili drugu priču.
05:40
We had been collecting data for six years.
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Skupljali smo podatke šest godina.
05:45
I had this temperature data,
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Imala sam podatke o temperaturi,
05:47
and it told a different story.
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a oni su govorili drugu priču.
05:49
In fact, we could probably pretty
accurately estimate conception.
accurately estimate conception.
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Mogli smo, u stvari, prilično
točno odrediti trenutak začeća.
točno odrediti trenutak začeća.
05:56
Yeah, that's a story you want to tell
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Da, to je priča koju želite ispričati
05:58
at your kid's wedding reception. (Laughter)
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na svadbi svog djeteta. (Smijeh)
06:01
I remember like it was yesterday.
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Sjećam se kao da je to bilo jučer.
06:05
My temperature was a sizzling 97.8 degrees
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Moja je temperatura bila uzavrelih
97.8 stupnjeva F
97.8 stupnjeva F
06:07
as I stared into your father's eyes. (Laughter)
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i pogledala sam u oči vašeg oca. (Smijeh)
06:12
Oh, yeah. Twenty-two more years, we're telling that story.
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Da, za dvadeset dvije
ćemo godine pričati tu priču.
ćemo godine pričati tu priču.
06:18
But we were confident to leave
because we had been collecting data.
because we had been collecting data.
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Bili smo sigurni kad smo
odlazili jer smo skupljali podatke.
odlazili jer smo skupljali podatke.
06:21
Now, what does that data look like?
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Kako ti podatci izgledaju?
06:23
Here's a standard chart
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Evo grafikon
06:26
of a woman's waking body temperature
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tjelesne temperature žene kod buđenja
06:29
during the course of a cycle.
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tijekom ciklusa.
06:31
So from the beginning of the menstrual cycle
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Od početka menstrualnog ciklusa
06:32
till the beginning of the next.
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do početka sljedećeg.
06:34
You'll see that the temperature is not random.
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Vidjet ćete kako temperatura nije nasumična.
06:36
Clearly there is a low pattern
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Očito postoji uzorak niske temperature
06:38
at the beginning of her cycle
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na početku njenog ciklusa
06:40
and then you see this jump and then a higher
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nakon kojeg vidite skok i višu
06:43
set of temperatures at the end of her cycle.
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razinu temperature
pri kraju njenog ciklusa.
pri kraju njenog ciklusa.
06:45
So what's happening here?
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Što se ovdje događa?
06:47
What is that data telling you?
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Što vam podatci govore?
06:49
Well, ladies, at the beginning of our cycle,
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Pa, dame, na početku vašeg ciklusa,
06:52
the hormone estrogen is dominant and that estrogen
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hormon estrogen je dominantan
i taj estrogen
i taj estrogen
06:55
causes a suppression of your body temperature.
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izaziva supresiju
vaše tjelesne temperature.
vaše tjelesne temperature.
06:59
And at ovulation, your body releases an egg
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Tijekom ovulacije, vaše
tijelo oslobađa jajnu stanicu,
tijelo oslobađa jajnu stanicu,
07:03
and progesterone takes over, pro-gestation.
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a progesteron preuzima, pro-gestacija.
07:08
And so your body heats up in anticipation
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Vaše se tijelo zagrijava u anticipaciji
07:10
of housing this new little fertilized egg.
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udomljavanja novog malog oplođenog jajeta.
07:14
So why this temperature jump?
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Zbog čega ovaj skok temperature?
07:17
Well, think about when a bird sits on her eggs.
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Mislite o ptici koja leži na jajima.
07:20
Why is she sitting on them?
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Zašto leži na njima?
07:22
She wants to keep them warm,
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Želi ih zagrijati,
07:24
protect them and keep them warm.
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zaštititi ih i zagrijati.
07:25
Ladies, this is exactly what our bodies do every month,
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Dame, upravo ovo čine
vaša tijela svaki mjesec.
vaša tijela svaki mjesec.
07:27
they heat up in anticipation
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Zagrijavaju se u iščekivanju
07:29
of keeping a new little life warm.
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zagrijavanja malog života.
07:33
And if nothing happens, if you are not pregnant,
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A ako se ništa ne dogodi,
ako niste trudni,
ako niste trudni,
07:36
then estrogen takes back over and
that cycle starts all over again.
that cycle starts all over again.
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estrogen nadvlada i
ciklus ponovno započinje.
ciklus ponovno započinje.
07:40
But if you do get pregnant, sometimes you
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Ali ako ste trudni, ponekad zapravo vidite
07:42
actually see another shift in your temperatures
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ponovnu promjenu temperature
07:45
and it stays elevated for those whole nine months.
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koja ostaje povišena svih devet mjeseci.
07:48
That's why you see those pregnant
women just sweating and hot,
women just sweating and hot,
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Zbog toga vidite trudnice
kako se znoje i vruće im je,
kako se znoje i vruće im je,
07:51
because their temperatures are high.
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to je zbog toga što im
je temperatura visoka.
je temperatura visoka.
07:55
Here's a chart that we had about three or four years ago.
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Evo grafikona kojeg smo radili
prije otprilike tri ili četiri godine.
prije otprilike tri ili četiri godine.
07:59
We were really very excited about this chart.
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Bili smo vrlo uzbuđeni
zbog ovog grafikona.
zbog ovog grafikona.
08:01
You'll see the low temperature level
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Vidjet ćete niske temperature
08:03
and then a shift and for about five days,
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i pomak koji traje otprilike pet dana,
08:07
that's about the time it takes for the egg to travel
160
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to je otprilike vrijeme
potrebno jajetu da putuje
potrebno jajetu da putuje
08:09
down the fallopian tube and implant,
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kroz jajovod i implantira se,
08:11
and then you see those temperatures
start to go up a little bit.
start to go up a little bit.
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a zatim vidite kako
temperature počnu malo rasti.
temperature počnu malo rasti.
08:15
And in fact, we had a second temperature shift,
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Mi smo, u stvari, imali
drugi temperaturni skok,
drugi temperaturni skok,
08:18
confirmed with a pregnancy test
that were indeed pregnant
that were indeed pregnant
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potvrđen testom za trudnoću
da smo doista bili trudni
da smo doista bili trudni
08:22
with our first child, very exciting.
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s našim prvim djetetom, vrlo uzbudljivo.
08:25
Until a couple of days later
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Dok nisam za nekoliko dana
08:27
I saw some spotting and then I noticed heavy blood flow,
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uočila točkasto, a zatim
i obilno krvarenje,
i obilno krvarenje,
08:32
and we had in fact had an early stage miscarriage.
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imali smo, u stvari,
rani spontani pobačaj.
rani spontani pobačaj.
08:37
Had I not been taking my temperature
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Da nisam mjerila temperaturu,
08:41
I really would have just thought
my period was late that month,
my period was late that month,
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mislila bih kako mi samo
mjesečnica kasni taj mjesec,
mjesečnica kasni taj mjesec,
08:45
but we actually had data to show
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ali smo imali podatke koji su pokazali
08:46
that we had miscarried this baby,
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da smo pobacili to dijete.
08:49
and even though this data revealed a really
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Iako su ovi podatci otkrili vrlo
08:51
unfortunate event in our lives,
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nesretan događaj u našim životima,
to je bila informacija koju smo
mogli odnijeti liječniku.
mogli odnijeti liječniku.
08:53
it was information that we could then take to our doctor.
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08:55
So if there was a fertility issue or some problem,
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Ako bi postojao problem
plodnosti neke vrste,
plodnosti neke vrste,
08:58
I had data to show:
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imam podatke za pokazati:
08:59
Look, we got pregnant, our temperature shifted,
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Gle, bili smo trudni,
temperatura nam se povisila,
temperatura nam se povisila,
09:01
we somehow lost this baby.
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nekako smo izgubili to dijete.
09:03
What is it that we can do to help prevent this problem?
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Što možemo učiniti kako
bismo spriječili ovaj problem?
bismo spriječili ovaj problem?
09:06
And it's not just about temperatures
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Ne radi se samo o temperaturama
09:10
and it's not just about fertility;
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i ne radi se samo o plodnosti;
09:13
we can use data about our bodies to tell us a lot of things.
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možemo koristiti ove podatke o
našem tijelu kako bi nam rekli mnogo toga.
našem tijelu kako bi nam rekli mnogo toga.
09:16
For instance, did you know that taking
your temperature can tell you a lot
your temperature can tell you a lot
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Na primjer, jeste li znali da vam
mjerenje temperature može reći mnogo
mjerenje temperature može reći mnogo
09:20
about the condition of your thyroid?
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o stanju vaše štitnjače?
09:22
So, your thyroid works a lot like
the thermostat in your house.
the thermostat in your house.
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Vaša štitnjača radi kao
termostat u vašoj kući.
termostat u vašoj kući.
09:26
There is an optimal temperature
that you want in your house;
that you want in your house;
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Postoji optimalna temperatura
koju želite u kući;
koju želite u kući;
09:29
you set your thermostat.
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Namjestite termostat.
09:30
When it gets too cold in the house,
your thermostat kicks in
your thermostat kicks in
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Kad zahladi, vaš se termostat uključi
09:33
and says, "Hey, we need to blow some heat around."
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i kaže: "Hej, trebamo upuhati topline."
A ako postane prevruće, vaš termostat to
09:36
Or if it gets too hot, your thermostat
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09:38
registers, "Turn the A.C. on. Cool us off."
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registrira:"Uključi klimu, rashladi nas."
09:41
That's exactly how your thyroid works in your body.
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Jednako tako funkcionira štitnjača.
09:45
Your thyroid tries to keep an optimal temperature
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vaša štitnjača održava optimalnu temperaturu
09:48
for your body.
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vašeg tijela.
09:49
If it gets too cold, your thyroid
says, "Hey, we need to heat up."
says, "Hey, we need to heat up."
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Ako previše zahladi, štitnjača kaže
"Hej, moramo se zagrijati."
"Hej, moramo se zagrijati."
09:51
If it gets too hot, your thyroid cools you down.
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Ako postane prevruće,
vaša vas štitnjača rashladi.
vaša vas štitnjača rashladi.
09:54
But what happens when your
thyroid is not functioning well?
thyroid is not functioning well?
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Ali što se dogodi kad vaša
štitnjača ne funkcionira pravilno?
štitnjača ne funkcionira pravilno?
09:59
When it doesn't function, then it shows up
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Kad ne funkcionira, to se vidi
10:01
in your body temperatures,
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u vašoj temperaturi.
10:02
they tend to be lower than normal or very erratic.
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Ona bude niža od normalne ili nepravilna.
10:05
And so by collecting this data
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Skupljanjem ovih podataka
10:06
you can find out information about your thyroid.
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možete dobiti informacije
o svojoj štitnjači.
o svojoj štitnjači.
10:09
Now, what is it, if you had a thyroid
problem and you went to the doctor,
problem and you went to the doctor,
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Kad biste imali problema sa štitnjačom
i otišli biste kod svog liječnika,
i otišli biste kod svog liječnika,
10:13
your doctor would actually test the amount of
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vaš bi liječnik mjerio razinu
10:15
thyroid stimulating hormone in your blood.
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tiroid stimulirajućeg hormona u vašoj krvi.
10:18
Fine. But the problem with that test is
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4183
Dobro. Ali problem s tim testom je taj
10:22
it doesn't tell you how active the hormone is in your body.
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što vam ne govori koliko je taj
hormon aktivan u vašem tijelu.
hormon aktivan u vašem tijelu.
10:25
So you might have a lot of hormone present,
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Možda imate mnogo hormona,
10:27
but it might not be actively working to regulate
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ali koji ne rade aktivno kako bi regulirali
10:29
your body temperature.
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vašu tjelesnu temperaturu.
10:30
So just by collecting your temperature every day,
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Mjereći svoju tjelesnu
temperaturu svaki dan,
temperaturu svaki dan,
10:32
you get information about the condition of your thyroid.
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3620
dobivate informacije o
stanju vaše štitnjače.
stanju vaše štitnjače.
10:35
So, what if you don't want to take
your temperature every day?
your temperature every day?
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2481
Što ako ne želite mjeriti
temperaturu svaki dan?
temperaturu svaki dan?
10:38
I advocate that you do,
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1558
Želim vas nagovoriti da to činite,
10:40
but there are tons of other things you could take.
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ali postoje mnoge druge
stvari koje možete činiti.
stvari koje možete činiti.
10:41
You could take your blood pressure,
you could take your weight —
you could take your weight —
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2805
Možete mjeriti svoj krvni tlak,
ili svoju tjelesnu masu —
ili svoju tjelesnu masu —
10:44
yeah, who's excited about
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da, tko je uzbuđen
10:46
taking their weight every day? (Laughter)
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3537
zbog svakodnevnog vaganja? (Smijeh)
10:49
Early on in our marriage, Donald had a stuffy nose
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4791
Rano u našem braku,
Donald je imao začepljen nos
Donald je imao začepljen nos
10:54
and he had been taking a slew of medications
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3120
i uzimao je niz lijekova
10:57
to try to relieve his stuffy nose, to no avail.
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3999
kako bi odčepio nos, ali bez uspjeha.
11:01
And so, that night he comes and
he wakes me up and he says,
he wakes me up and he says,
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Tako je jedne noći došao
i probudio me i rekao:
i probudio me i rekao:
11:05
"Honey, I can't breath out of my nose."
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"Dušo, ne mogu izdahnuti kroz nos."
11:09
And I roll over and I look, and I said,
"Well, can you breath out of your mouth?"
"Well, can you breath out of your mouth?"
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4818
Okrenula sam se, pogledala i rekla:
"Pa, možeš li izdisati kroz usta?"
"Pa, možeš li izdisati kroz usta?"
11:14
(Laughter)
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1478
(Smijeh)
11:16
And he goes, "Yes, but I can't breath out of my nose!"
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7080
A on će: "Mogu, ali ne
mogu disati kroz nos!"
mogu disati kroz nos!"
11:23
And so like any good wife, I rush him
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Kao svaka dobra žena, odvela sam ga
11:26
to the emergency room
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1835
na hitnu
11:27
at 2 o'clock in the morning.
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2432
u 2 sata ujutro.
11:30
And the whole time I'm driving and I'm thinking,
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Cijelim sam putem mislila
11:33
you can't die on me now.
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kako mi ne smije sad umrijeti.
11:36
We just got married,
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Tek smo se vjenčali,
11:38
people will think I killed you! (Laughter)
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4458
ljudi će misliti da sam ga ubila! (Smijeh)
11:43
And so, we get to the emergency
room, and the nurse sees us,
room, and the nurse sees us,
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3673
I tako, stigli smo na hitnu
i vidjela nas je sestra,
i vidjela nas je sestra,
11:47
and he can't breath out of his nose, and so
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2621
a on ne može disati kroz nos,
11:49
she brings us to the back and the doctor says,
237
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ona nas odvede iza i liječnik kaže:
11:51
"What seems to be the problem?" and
he goes, "I can't breath out of my nose."
he goes, "I can't breath out of my nose."
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3189
"U čemu je problem?", a on će,
"Ne mogu disati na nos."
"Ne mogu disati na nos."
11:54
And he said, "You can't breath out of your nose?
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2049
A liječnik će: "Ne možete disati kroz nos?
11:56
No, but he can breath out of his mouth. (Laughter)
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5877
Ne, ali može disati kroz usta." (Smijeh)
12:02
He takes a step back and he looks at both of us
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Vratio se korak unazad
i pogledao nas oboje
i pogledao nas oboje
12:05
and he says "Sir, I think I know the problem.
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3866
i rekao: "Gospodine, mislim
da znam u čemu je problem.
da znam u čemu je problem.
12:09
You're having a heart attack.
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1436
Imate srčani udar.
12:10
I'm going to order an EKG and a CAT scan
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Naručit ću vas za EKG i CT
12:12
for you immediately."
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što prije."
12:16
And we are thinking,
246
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1628
A mi si mislimo,
12:17
no, no, no. It's not a heart attack. He can breathe,
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2940
ne, ne, ne. Nije to
srčani udar. Može on disati,
srčani udar. Može on disati,
12:20
just out of his mouth. No, no, no, no, no.
248
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4997
ali samo na usta. Ne, ne, ne, ne.
12:25
And so we go back and forth with this doctor
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Tako smo se natezali s ovim doktorom
12:28
because we think this is the incorrect diagnosis,
250
736031
2478
zato što smo mislili da
ovo nije bila dobra dijagnoza,
ovo nije bila dobra dijagnoza,
12:30
and he's like, "No really, it'll be fine, just calm down."
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3952
a on će: "Smirite se, sve će biti u redu."
12:34
And I'm thinking, how do you calm down?
But I don't think he's having a heart attack.
But I don't think he's having a heart attack.
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A ja si mislim, kako da se smirim?
Ali ne mislim da ima srčani udar.
Ali ne mislim da ima srčani udar.
12:38
And so fortunately for us, this
doctor was at the end of the shift.
doctor was at the end of the shift.
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746380
3241
Na našu sreću, ovo je bio
kraj smjene tog liječnika.
kraj smjene tog liječnika.
12:41
So this new doctor comes in, he sees us clearly
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Došao je novi liječnik,
pogledao nas kako smo
pogledao nas kako smo
12:44
distraught, with a husband who can't breath
255
752536
3001
vidno uzrujani, s mužem
koji ne može disati
koji ne može disati
12:47
out of his nose. (Laughter)
256
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3102
na nos. (Smijeh)
12:50
And he starts asking us questions.
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2786
Počeo nas je ispitivati pitanja.
12:53
He says, "Well, do you two exercise?"
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4880
Kaže: "Vježbate li vas dvoje?"
12:58
We ride our bikes, we go to the gym occasionally.
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7073
Vozimo bicikle, idemo
povremeno u teretanu.
povremeno u teretanu.
13:05
(Laughter)
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1653
(Smijeh)
13:07
We move around.
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775031
2865
Krećemo se.
13:09
And he says, "What were you doing
just before you came here?"
just before you came here?"
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2663
Pa kaže: "Što ste radili prije
nego što ste došli ovamo?"
nego što ste došli ovamo?"
13:12
I'm thinking, I was sleeping, honestly.
263
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2712
Mislim si, spavala sam, iskreno.
13:15
But okay, what was Donald doing just before?
264
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2831
Ok, ali što je Donald radio prije ovoga?
13:18
So Donald goes into this slew
of medications he was taking.
of medications he was taking.
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3548
Govorio je o nizu lijekova koje je uzimao.
13:21
He lists, "I took this decongestant
and then I took this nasal spray,"
and then I took this nasal spray,"
266
789650
2962
Nabrajao je: "Uzeo sam ovaj
dekongestiv i ovaj sprej za nos"
dekongestiv i ovaj sprej za nos"
13:24
and then all of a sudden a lightbulb goes off and he says,
267
792612
1995
odjednom mu se upalila lampica i kaže:
13:26
"Oh! You should never mix this
decongestant with this nasal spray.
decongestant with this nasal spray.
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794615
3627
"Oh! Nikad ne smiješ miješati
ovaj dekongestiv i ovaj sprej.
ovaj dekongestiv i ovaj sprej.
13:30
Clogs you up every time. Here, take this one instead."
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798242
2817
Svaki te put začepi. Evo,
uzmi ovaj umjesto toga."
uzmi ovaj umjesto toga."
13:33
He gives us a prescription.
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801059
2266
Dao nam je recept.
13:35
We're looking at each other, and I looked at the doctor,
271
803325
1990
Pogledali smo se,
i pogledali smo liječnika,
i pogledali smo liječnika,
13:37
and I said, "Why is it that it seems like you
272
805315
2226
i rekla sam, "Kako to da ste
13:39
were able to accurately diagnose his condition,
273
807541
2411
uspjeli točno postaviti dijagnozu,
13:41
but this previous doctor wanted to order
274
809952
2216
a prethodni je liječnik
13:44
an EKG and a CAT scan?"
275
812168
2506
htio EKG i CT?"
13:46
And he looks at us and says,
276
814674
2607
Pogledao nas je i rekao:
13:49
"Well, when a 350-pound man walks in the
emergency room and says he can't breath,
emergency room and says he can't breath,
277
817281
4218
"Pa, kad čovjek od 160 kg uđe u
hitnu i kaže kako ne može disati,
hitnu i kaže kako ne može disati,
13:53
you assume he's having a heart attack
278
821499
1764
posumnjate da ima srčani udar,
13:55
and you ask questions later."
279
823263
3949
a kasnije postavljate pitanja."
13:59
Now, emergency room doctors are
trained to make decisions quickly,
trained to make decisions quickly,
280
827212
5720
Liječnici na hitnoj su
naučeni brzo donositi odluke,
naučeni brzo donositi odluke,
14:04
but not always accurately.
281
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2091
ali ne uvijek točno.
14:07
And so had we had some information
282
835023
1549
Da smo imali više informacija
14:08
about our heart health to share with him,
283
836572
2394
o našem zdravlju srca koje
smo mogli podijeliti s njim,
smo mogli podijeliti s njim,
14:10
maybe we would have gotten a
better diagnosis the first time.
better diagnosis the first time.
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838966
3775
možda bismo i prvi put
dobili bolju dijagnozu.
dobili bolju dijagnozu.
14:14
I want you to consider the following chart,
285
842741
2232
Ako ćete proučiti sljedeći grafikon
14:16
of systolic blood pressure measurements
286
844973
1954
sistoličkog krvnog tlaka
14:18
from October 2010 to July 2012.
287
846927
4072
od listopada 2010. do srpnja 2012.,
14:22
You'll see that these measurements start
288
850999
1693
vidjet ćete kako mjerenja počinju
14:24
in the prehypertension/hypertension zone,
289
852692
3668
u području prehipertenzije/hipertenzije,
14:28
but over about the course of a year and a half
290
856360
2586
ali kako se tijekom sljedeće godine i pol
14:30
they move into the normal zone.
291
858946
2645
pomiče u područje normalnog tlaka.
14:33
This is about the heart rate of a healthy 16-year-old.
292
861591
4109
Ovo je srčani rad
zdravog šesnaestogodišnjaka.
zdravog šesnaestogodišnjaka.
14:37
What story is this data telling you?
293
865700
4031
Kakvu nam priču pričaju sljedeći podatci?
14:41
Obviously it's the data from someone
294
869731
2881
Očito su to podatci nekoga
14:44
who's made a drastic transformation,
295
872612
2673
tko je napravio drastičnu promjenu,
14:47
and fortunately for us, that person
happens to be here today.
happens to be here today.
296
875285
5158
i na sreću, ta je osoba danas ovdje s nama.
14:52
So that 350-pound guy that walked
into the emergency room with me
into the emergency room with me
297
880443
4254
Taj je 160 kg težak muškarac
koji je ušao u hitnu sa mnom
koji je ušao u hitnu sa mnom
14:56
is now an even sexier and healthier
298
884697
2972
sada zgodniji i zdraviji
14:59
225-pound guy, and that's his blood pressure trace.
299
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6688
muškarac od 100 kg,
a ovo je njegov krvni tlak.
a ovo je njegov krvni tlak.
15:06
So over the course of that year and a half
300
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3461
Tijekom tih godinu i pol
15:09
Donald's eating changed
301
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1569
Donald je promijenio navike hranjenja,
15:11
and our exercise regimen changed,
302
899387
1991
a promijenio se i naš režim vježbanja,
15:13
and his heart rate responded,
303
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2790
i njegov je puls odgovorio,
odgovorio je i krvni tlak na promjenu
15:16
his blood pressure responded to that change
304
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1502
15:17
that he made in his body.
305
905670
2299
koju je učinio na svom tijelu.
15:19
So what's the take-home message
306
907969
1978
Što je poruka koju trebate ponijeti
15:21
that I want you to leave with today?
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svojim kućama danas?
15:25
By taking ownership of your data just like we've done,
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Posjedovanjem svojih podataka
kako smo mi to učinili,
kako smo mi to učinili,
15:30
just by taking this daily measurements about yourself,
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samo svakodnevnim mjerenjima,
15:33
you become the expert on your body.
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možete postati stručnjak za svoje tijelo.
15:36
You become the authority.
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Postajete autoritet.
15:38
It's not hard to do.
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To nije zahtjevno.
15:40
You don't have to have a Ph.D. in statistics
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Ne morate imati doktorat iz statistike
15:42
to be an expert in yourself.
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kako biste bili stručnjak za sebe.
15:44
You don't have to have a medical degree
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Ne morate biti liječnik
15:45
to be your body's expert.
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da biste bili stručnjak za tijelo.
15:47
Medical doctors, they're experts on the population,
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Liječnici su stručnjaci za populaciju,
15:51
but you are the expert on yourself.
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ali ste vi stručnjak za sebe.
15:53
And so when two of you come together,
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Kad se vas dvoje nađete,
15:55
when two experts come together,
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kad se dva stručnjaka nađu,
15:57
the two of you are able to make a better decision
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zajedno možete donijeti bolje odluke
16:00
than just your doctor alone.
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nego sam liječnik.
16:02
Now that you understand the power of information
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Sad kad razumijete moć informacija
16:05
that you can get through personal data collection,
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koje možete dobiti skupljanjem
osobnih podataka,
osobnih podataka,
16:07
I'd like you all to stand and raise your right hand.
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željela bih da se ustanete i
podignete svoju desnu ruku.
podignete svoju desnu ruku.
16:11
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
16:13
Yes, get it up.
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Da, podignite ju.
16:18
I challenge you to take ownership of your data.
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Izazivam vas da postanete
vlasnik svojih podataka.
vlasnik svojih podataka.
16:25
And today, I hereby confer upon you
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Danas vam dajem
16:29
a TEDx associate's degree in elementary statistics
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TEDx suradničku diplomu
iz elementarne statistike
iz elementarne statistike
16:33
with a concentration in time-dependent data analysis
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s naglaskom na analizu
podataka ovisnu o vremenu
podataka ovisnu o vremenu
16:38
with all the rights and privileges appertaining thereto.
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sa svim pravima i privilegijama
koje ona podrazumijeva.
koje ona podrazumijeva.
16:41
And so the next time you are in your doctor's office,
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Tako kada sljedeći put
budete u liječničkoj ordinaciji,
budete u liječničkoj ordinaciji,
16:45
as newly inducted statisticians,
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kao novim statističarima,
16:48
what should always be your response?
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koji bi trebao biti vaš odgovor?
16:50
Audience: Show me the data!
Talithia Williams: I can't hear you!
Talithia Williams: I can't hear you!
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Publika: "Pokaži mi podatke!"
Talithia Williams: "Ne čujem vas!"
Talithia Williams: "Ne čujem vas!"
16:52
Audience: Show me the data!
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Publika: "Pokaži mi podatke!"
16:54
TW: One more time!
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TW: "Još jednom!"
16:55
Audience: Show me the data!
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Publika: "Pokaži mi podatke!"
16:57
TW: Show me the data.
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TW: Pokaži mi podatke.
16:58
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
17:01
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Talithia Williams - StatisticianTalithia Williams builds statistical models that study the spatial and temporal structure of data.
Why you should listen
Dr. Talithia Williams is an Associate Professor of Mathematics at Harvey Mudd College. Her professional experiences include research appointments at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), the National Security Agency (NSA), and NASA. Dr. Williams develops statistical models that emphasize the spatial and temporal structure of data with environmental applications. She has been recognized for the development of a cataract model used to predict the cataract surgical rate for developing countries in Africa.
In addition to her academic accomplishments, Dr. Williams and her husband, Donald, actively teach and share foundational principles regarding the joys of Christian marriage. Dr. Williams’ talk will explore how each of us can begin to collect data about ourselves that can provide insight into our personal health.
Talithia Williams | Speaker | TED.com