Stewart Brand and Chris Anderson: Mammoths resurrected, geoengineering and other thoughts from a futurist
スチュアート・ブランドとクリス・アンダーソン: 蘇るマンモス、地球工学 — あるフューチャリストの考えていること
Since the counterculture '60s, Stewart Brand has been creating our internet-worked world. Now, with biotech accelerating four times faster than digital technology, Stewart Brand has a bold new plan ... Full bioChris Anderson - TED Curator
After a long career in journalism and publishing, Chris Anderson became the curator of the TED Conference in 2002 and has developed it as a platform for identifying and disseminating ideas worth spreading. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
you founded this magazine.
[全地球カタログ]
It's the original one.
[全地球カタログ]
[全地球カタログ]
それほど大きな影響を与えたんです?
that I was part of at the time,
当時 私が関わった大きな出来事で
of hippies and New Left.
at where the interesting flow is
面白そうな動向を見つけて
as an army officer,
そう訓練されていたんだが
to find originalities:
安直な発見方法でもあったんだな
else is looking,
the hippies were very romantic
ヒッピー達というのはとてもロマンチストで
it was a power device.
それを権力の道具と思ったからだ
fold, or mutilate.
こうするな」だから
was kind of a counter-counterculture thing
"反"カウンターカルチャー的だった
Buckminster Fuller's idea
というアイデアを取り入れたからなんだ
define the world in interesting ways.
興味深い方法で世界を定義する
disappeared one week,
姿を消してしまったら
and engineers disappeared one week,
全員一週間姿をくらましたら
我々はまだそう信じていますね
about power to the people.
謳っていた
and Steve Wozniak
ウォズニアックといった人たちが
と言った
don't try to change human nature,
「人間の本性を変えようとするな
and it does not even bend,
ビクともしない」と言っていたけれど
変えられるんだ
if you want to make the world better
世界を良く変えたければ
変えようとするのではなく
differently like the New Left was,
that go in the right direction.
ツールを提供したらいいんだ
this is one of the first images,
この表紙は人類が初めて
Earth from outer space.
that in the spring of '66,
on a rooftop in San Francisco,
LSDを体験したお陰で
something that Fuller talked about,
また考え始めたんだ
that the Earth is flat
地球が平らだと信じていて
in terms of its resources,
that it's a sphere
on my hundred micrograms
私はサンフランシスコの家の屋根の上で
which were right in front of me
they were sort of fanned out like this.
こんな風に扇型に広がって見えたんだ
they are on a curved surface.
地平に建っていたからで
I would see that even more clearly,
それがもっとはっきり分かっただろう
もっとくっきりと
the circle of Earth from space.
in space for 10 years --
人類は10年前から宇宙に出ていた
カメラが地球を振り返ったことはなかった
or looking at just parts of the Earth.
いつも地球の外か一部分だけだった
a photograph of the whole Earth yet?
見たことがないんだろう?と考えたんだ
and senators, secretaries got it,
議員たちや長官たちに伝わり
in the Politburo got it,
Catalog came out,
lazy and ingenious
that you see --
Whole Earth banners and so on --
プラカードか何かを持っていたけど
way to make the system go
発展させる方法というだけでなく
the whole system around in a big way,
大々的に変えてしまおうと力技で挑むと
horsing-around problems,
it will adjust to the tweak.
システム側がそれに適応してくれるからね
among many other things,
あなたは色々取り組んでいます
in the environmental movement,
taking on a lot of,
almost believe are heresies.
a couple of those.
and Arctic region, used to look like.
亜北極地帯の風景だったんだよ
used to look like that.
and the Serengeti now,
タンザニアのセレンゲティ国立公園で見るような
throughout the world.
全世界で見られたものだ
is to not only bring back those animals
こうした動物や 彼らが作った
stabilization system over the long run,
システムかもしれない —
there in the background
シナリオに一役買っている
a 200-year goal.
今世紀末には
the extinction rate
普通の動物のものくらいにまで
in the background.
of bio-abundance will take longer,
もっと時間がかかるだろうが
マンモスの話から離れて
should think of extinctions.
concerns right now
at a faster rate than ever in history.
起こっているということがあり
of the Sixth Extinction
of the Sixth Extinction.
the de-extinction business,
絶滅防止事業を
with Revive & Restore,
進めているので
going on with extinction.
set of data out there
いうことに気が付いたんだ
indicated by the yellow triangles,
過去5回の大量絶滅が表されているが
66 million years ago
言われているわけだ
for a paper I wrote,
調査したんだが
75 percent of all the species
75%が死滅するとき
of five-and-a-half-million species,
one and a half million.
identified every year.
1万4千種が発見されている
going on out there.
kind of used in strange ways.
という言葉の使われ方は奇妙だ
in the New York Times,
カール・ジンマーが
Broad Studies Show."
広領域の調査で明らかに」と報道した
and it mentions that since 1500,
have gone extinct in the oceans,
絶滅したと書いてあって
none in the last 50 years.
絶滅した生物はいなかったんだが
into the story, and it's saying,
are so overfishing the wild fishes,
the fish populations in the oceans
are probably going to go extinct.
"Oh my God, start panicking,
「ああ神様 パニックになりそうだ
all the species in the oceans."
looking into in a little more detail,
that are considered threatened
リスト)」は およそ2万3千種について
絶滅のおそれがあるとしている
for the Conservation of Nature, the IUCN.
作成しているんだが
surveying the loss of wildlife,
絶滅調査についての記事を掲載し
for more centuries and millennia,
数世紀〜数千年続いたら
of a sixth extinction.
a moral responsibility to,
道義的責任感を感じていて
the thing that they are looking at,
大切に思うからでしょうし
maybe no one listens.
誰も耳を貸そうとしませんからね
moral this or moral that --
"precautionary principle" --
「予防原則」 とか
to basically say no to things.
物事を否定するために存在するんだ
fish extinction, animal extinction,
問題は魚類や動物の絶滅ではなく
いくらか促していると?
and there is losses going on.
損失が起こっていて—
are caused by agriculture,
and basically makes it more condensed,
もっとコンパクトにまとめ
やってください
vertical farms in town,
屋内農業をやろうと考えると
about how to grow pot in basements,
学んできたことが
vegetables inside containers --
応用されているんだ
we can do for nature.
自然にとっては良い行いだからね
of a destruction of the landscape is good.
良いことだから
bringing back species, rewilding ...
再び野生に還す「再野生化」が話題ですが
What's the story with these guys?
どういうことなんです?
ヨーロッパでは
今ピークに達していて
at peak children being alive.
史上最多人口の世代になった
fewer and fewer children.
of human population,
人口爆増世代で
maybe nine and a half billion,
but probably going down.
減少し始めるだろう
史上最大になっているが
that plays out in Europe
of abandoned farmland now,
耕作放棄地がある
corridors in Europe.
回廊は作らないんだ
so many of these farms are connected
農地が多く繋がっていて
reforested wildlife corridors,
野生動物回廊が出来て
in this case, to Spain.
スペインへ戻って来た
to the Netherlands.
There's lynx coming back.
I had no idea such a thing existed.
存在するなんて知りもしなかったが
to the rest of Europe.
還って来ている
which is kind of interesting.
これは面白いことだ
They've been missed.
彼らとの再会を喜んでるよ
when you bring back the predators,
捕食者たちが戻ってくると
ecosystem often.
逆に増える事になりますね
and large animals --
捕食者や大型動物たち
with sharp teeth and claws --
for a really rich ecosystem.
とても重要だと分かってきている
more dramatic rewilding project
このドラマチックな再野生化プロジェクトへ
these terrifying woolly mammoths?
何故 蘇らせたいと考えるのです?
are the closest relative
genetically very close.
遺伝子的にとても似ている
in evolutionary history.
かなり最近になって分化したんだ
are closer to woolly mammoths
to African elephants
with George Church at Harvard,
ジョージ・チャーチと協力してるんだが
for four major traits
関わる遺伝子を
genome of the woolly mammoth,
ケナガマンモスのジノムから
"ancient DNA analysis."
取り出している
into living Asian elephant cell lines,
適切な遺伝子部位に移植し
their proper place thanks to CRISPR.
そういうことができるようになったんだな
like you did with genetic engineering.
遺伝子を無造作にぶち込んだりしない —
basically, one allele,
of another allele.
Asian elephant germline cells
of the traits that you're going for
a surrogate mother,
by conservation biologists,
curly-trunked, Asian elephant
牙が反ったアジアゾウだ
in the sub-Arctic.
to get them there?
そこに住まわせるんです?
they don't like snow, right?"
bigger than people.
you can start a little thing,
is tricky business, anyway.
the surrogate Asian elephant mothers?"
何頭か犠牲にするつもりですか?」
says, "That's all right.
こう言うんだ「大丈夫だ
and grow them that way."
next century, maybe,"
「来世紀にはそうなるかも知れないが…」
this week in Nature
『ネイチャー』誌に載った
in which they've grown a lamb
ヒツジの赤ん坊が発育していて
its gestation period.
want a world where --
そんな世界が必要なんでしょう
thousands of these things
何千も闊歩している世界を
working on the woolly mammoth seriously:
3つのグループがあって
we're kind of in the middle;
その真ん中の存在といったところだ
that are doing the genetics in the lab;
グループは遺伝子研究をしていて
old scientist named Zimov
who has bought into the system,
息子のニキータがいて
Zimov have been, for 25 years,
"Pleistocene Park,"
of Siberia that is pure tundra.
呼ぶ場所を造ってきた
of the animals on the landscape there
we saw lots of animals.
and then there's the boreal forest.
北方林もある
There's just a few animals there.
そこにはほんの少しの動物しかいない
a lot of grazing animals:
they're bringing in some bison,
that they used to be.
個体群密度にしようとしているのさ
the moss, back into grassland.
草原地帯に戻す
二酸化炭素を固定する
and releasing a lot of carbon dioxide
大量の二酸化炭素と
25 square miles,
stabilization thing.
very absorbent to sunlight,
when snow is on the ground.
around the North Pole --
around the North Pole --
biomes in the world,
(ある環境における生物集団)の一つで
Sergey Zimov and Nikita
セルゲイとニキータ・ジモフは
they got for nothing,
"... and they make no dung!"
「木は糞もしない!」
animals do, including mammoths.
大型動物は皆 糞をする
環境保護生物学者たちが
what conservation biologists call
中国かどこかのパンダがそうだが
pandas in China or wherever --
of making life good for that animal
改善することで
of creatures and plants,
良いことになる
of being self-managing,
can back off and say,
the destructive invasives,
侵入種を締め出すこと
と言えるようになる
that you're dreaming of de-extincting
そのうち絶滅から復活させたいと
like to move on to
how mammoths might help
tropical rainforest,
しているのではありませんが
you've thought about a lot.
地球の緑化についてです
is one of the most awful curses
to climate change.
というものですが
this graph here, or this map.
地図を送って下さいました
that you get from headlines
短い記事が伝える話を読んで
観察することだ
calls "narrative violation."
「ナラティブの侵害」を観察するんだ
is master of putting it out there --
このナラティブを伝える第一人者だが
civilization-threatening
of greenhouse gases, especially CO2,
できる限り早急に止めなければいけない
というものだ
but it's not the whole story,
全てが語られているわけではない
than these fragmentary stories.
全体的な物語はもっと面白いよ
plus water via sunshine.
二酸化炭素と水から出来ている
industrialized greenhouses,
turn that into plant matter.
植物がそれを栄養にするからだ
with satellites and other things,
over the last 33 years or so,
leaf action going on.
what ecologists call "primary production."
「基礎生産量」と呼ぶものだね
goes up with this.
これに伴って上昇するので
二酸化炭素増加への
that is sucking it down
and goes right back up,
再び大気中に戻るか
of what you need to bear in mind,
and engineering climate
地球工学的に操作するのは
tweaking around with the system
see it's still getting better,
back off half a turn.
半回転逆戻し となる
"Not all green is created equal."
「全ての緑は平等では無い」と考えるかも
the magnificence of the rainforest
熱帯雨林の美しさや
or grass or something like that.
犠牲にしているのかも知れません
every form of plant is increasing.
あらゆる植物が増えていると分かったんだ
left out of this study
触れられていないのは
in the oceans.
ということだよ
その中でも主に微生物が
the most important thing.
多分最も重要だ
that create the atmosphere
James Lovelock has been insisting;
especially of ocean life,
我々の知識は
ということだ
of too much CO2 in the atmosphere,
意図しないヘタな地球工学によって
the ocean doing with that?
the sea level rise,
with more global warming.
更に色々な被害が起こるだろう
to some of the coral reefs,
ひどい被害を受けている
a lot of bleaching from overheating.
温度の上昇によって白化が起こっている
in our previous session on the main stage,
先ほどの対話でこう言ったんだ
is worth experimenting with enough
in the warming aspect of all of this,
時間を稼げるかどうか
but usable research,
しかし有用な研究で調整し
do more than tweak.
起こすかどうかを決められる」
we're going to talk about
これに焦点を当てましょう
was just published by Yuval Harari.
ユヴァル・ノア・ハラリの著書では
of humans is to become as gods.
なるようなものだと言っています
And you've probably finished the book.
本も読んでいるだろう
completely remake ourselves
全く新しい
brand-new chapter of history.
そして大胆な一章を書き記そうとしている
どう思っているんだったかな?
likes provoking people.
挑発するのが好きみたいで
I'm excited and nervous.
私は興奮と緊張を覚えます
is trying hard to lean towards
こう考えがちです
part of me is saying,
こう考えます
be a little bit careful
isn't it, for TED?
a little bit schizophrenic.
少々統合失調症へのレシピでもありますが
引用はしませんでしたが
statement that you made
Whole Earth Catalog,
and might as well get good at it."
ならばそうなるべく努めよう」
you've upgraded that statement.
それをアップグレードしました
is that documentation
書き記すことは
はるかに良いということだ
from somebody --
書かれていたことからだったよ
it hasn't forgiven me yet!
when somebody quoted it,
それは自分の言葉だと言ったんだ
what you originally wrote
1968年に出版された
言った内容とは違いますね
and might as well get used to it.'"
ならばそれに慣れようではないか』
the stories we tell ourselves
我々が自分で語る物語というものは
それを乗り越えられる
and might as well get good at it,"
ならばそうなるべく努めよう」となった
called "Whole Earth Discipline:
現実的な環境主義者のマニフェスト』を
basically saying that we are as gods
「人間は神のようだ
and have to get good at it.
ならばそうなれるよう努めるべきだ」
the psychological reaction
あなたが地球工学について語ると
as you talk about geoengineering
is that humans should be gods --
あり得ないと
拒絶する人もいますが
気持ちなのです
narrative about hubris.
傲慢についての物語と同じだな
really sure of yourself,
そんなことを言うなんて
cautionary tale to always have at hand.
I've kept for myself is:
I am dead wrong about.
数を数えるんだ
with scientists these days,
looks pretty good,
of not only suspicions
うまくいっているのかどうかについて
視点を失わないだけでなく
だろう?」という問いが
away from fake news.
of this just for the environment:
適用することに立ち戻ると
is that, whether we like it or not,
好むと好まざるとに関わらず
of what happens on planets,
人類はすでに 左右しているけれど
doing it intentionally.
始めるべきだということですね
getting good at being a god?
努めるとはどういうことなのでしょう?
or systems we can nudge and play with?
小規模な実験やシステムはあるのでしょうか?
フラーへの忠誠から卒業させ
to Buckminster Fuller
and anthropologist and biologist
認識学者であり人類学者、生物学者
様々な分野の専門家だった
basically look at themselves.
自己を認識しているかを研究した
you want to always be looking at things.
持っておくべき視点だと思う
approach to geoengineering
アプローチで私が気に入っているところは
was talking about earlier --
先程話していたことでもあるが —
really incrementally,
see how it responds,
その反応を確かめ
that people say, quite rightly,
人々のもっともな意見への答えだ
how the climate system works.
まだよくわかっていない
you don't understand."
操作することはできない」
applies to the human body,
「それは人体でも同じだが
and we're kind of glad that it has."
みんな その進歩を喜んでいる」
that is so large and complex
エンジニアリングするには
an anti-hubristic approach.
全く正反対のもので
さっと手を引き
同時に進めるんだ
and dialogue and all these other things
大事なことで
about earlier with Sebastian [Thrun].
こういうことだ
is looking for social license,
「社会的な許可」をまず獲得しようとするもので
that I think is a good one,
problematic, deep issues
深い課題への取り組みに
paying close attention
as it's going forward,
as it's going forward --
which is fantastic --
素晴らしいと思っているよ —
that has worked pretty well so far.
なかなかうまく行ってきた
and I are optimistic is we read
"The Better Angels of Our Nature,"
ピンカーのような人物がいるからで
of: things are capable of getting better,
that happen and apply those further.
更に発展させることもできるさ
on that optimistic note,
楽観的になったところで
are willing to challenge yourself
そして皆に挑戦し続けていることに
allowing yourself to be too certain
疑いを持ち続ける姿が
更に学びたいと思います
and inspiring, actually,
洞察とインスピレーションに
ありがとうございました
ABOUT THE SPEAKERS
Stewart Brand - Environmentalist, futuristSince the counterculture '60s, Stewart Brand has been creating our internet-worked world. Now, with biotech accelerating four times faster than digital technology, Stewart Brand has a bold new plan ...
Why you should listen
With biotech accelerating four times faster than digital technology, the revival of extinct species is becoming possible. Stewart Brand plans to not only bring species back but restore them to the wild.
Brand is already a legend in the tech industry for things he’s created: the Whole Earth Catalog, The WELL, the Global Business Network, the Long Now Foundation, and the notion that “information wants to be free.” Now Brand, a lifelong environmentalist, wants to re-create -- or “de-extinct” -- a few animals that’ve disappeared from the planet.
Granted, resurrecting the woolly mammoth using ancient DNA may sound like mad science. But Brand’s Revive and Restore project has an entirely rational goal: to learn what causes extinctions so we can protect currently endangered species, preserve genetic and biological diversity, repair depleted ecosystems, and essentially “undo harm that humans have caused in the past.”
Stewart Brand | Speaker | TED.com
Chris Anderson - TED Curator
After a long career in journalism and publishing, Chris Anderson became the curator of the TED Conference in 2002 and has developed it as a platform for identifying and disseminating ideas worth spreading.
Why you should listen
Chris Anderson is the Curator of TED, a nonprofit devoted to sharing valuable ideas, primarily through the medium of 'TED Talks' -- short talks that are offered free online to a global audience.
Chris was born in a remote village in Pakistan in 1957. He spent his early years in India, Pakistan and Afghanistan, where his parents worked as medical missionaries, and he attended an American school in the Himalayas for his early education. After boarding school in Bath, England, he went on to Oxford University, graduating in 1978 with a degree in philosophy, politics and economics.
Chris then trained as a journalist, working in newspapers and radio, including two years producing a world news service in the Seychelles Islands.
Back in the UK in 1984, Chris was captivated by the personal computer revolution and became an editor at one of the UK's early computer magazines. A year later he founded Future Publishing with a $25,000 bank loan. The new company initially focused on specialist computer publications but eventually expanded into other areas such as cycling, music, video games, technology and design, doubling in size every year for seven years. In 1994, Chris moved to the United States where he built Imagine Media, publisher of Business 2.0 magazine and creator of the popular video game users website IGN. Chris eventually merged Imagine and Future, taking the combined entity public in London in 1999, under the Future name. At its peak, it published 150 magazines and websites and employed 2,000 people.
This success allowed Chris to create a private nonprofit organization, the Sapling Foundation, with the hope of finding new ways to tackle tough global issues through media, technology, entrepreneurship and, most of all, ideas. In 2001, the foundation acquired the TED Conference, then an annual meeting of luminaries in the fields of Technology, Entertainment and Design held in Monterey, California, and Chris left Future to work full time on TED.
He expanded the conference's remit to cover all topics, including science, business and key global issues, while adding a Fellows program, which now has some 300 alumni, and the TED Prize, which grants its recipients "one wish to change the world." The TED stage has become a place for thinkers and doers from all fields to share their ideas and their work, capturing imaginations, sparking conversation and encouraging discovery along the way.
In 2006, TED experimented with posting some of its talks on the Internet. Their viral success encouraged Chris to begin positioning the organization as a global media initiative devoted to 'ideas worth spreading,' part of a new era of information dissemination using the power of online video. In June 2015, the organization posted its 2,000th talk online. The talks are free to view, and they have been translated into more than 100 languages with the help of volunteers from around the world. Viewership has grown to approximately one billion views per year.
Continuing a strategy of 'radical openness,' in 2009 Chris introduced the TEDx initiative, allowing free licenses to local organizers who wished to organize their own TED-like events. More than 8,000 such events have been held, generating an archive of 60,000 TEDx talks. And three years later, the TED-Ed program was launched, offering free educational videos and tools to students and teachers.
Chris Anderson | Speaker | TED.com