Stewart Brand and Chris Anderson: Mammoths resurrected, geoengineering and other thoughts from a futurist
斯图尔特·布兰德 和 克里斯•安德森: 从未来主义者的观点看猛犸象的复活、地球工程,及其他想法分享
Since the counterculture '60s, Stewart Brand has been creating our internet-worked world. Now, with biotech accelerating four times faster than digital technology, Stewart Brand has a bold new plan ... Full bioChris Anderson - TED Curator
After a long career in journalism and publishing, Chris Anderson became the curator of the TED Conference in 2002 and has developed it as a platform for identifying and disseminating ideas worth spreading. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
你创立了这本杂志。
you founded this magazine.
It's the original one.
太棒了!这是原版。
that I was part of at the time,
反主流文化运动,
of hippies and New Left.
at where the interesting flow is
as an army officer,
我在当军队长官时所受的训练。
to find originalities:
来寻找独创性:
else is looking,
the hippies were very romantic
嬉皮士们很浪漫,
it was a power device.
fold, or mutilate.
was kind of a counter-counterculture thing
反-反主流文化的东西,
Buckminster Fuller's idea
巴克敏斯特·富勒的观点:
define the world in interesting ways.
用有趣的方式来定义世界。
disappeared one week,
and engineers disappeared one week,
在一周内消失了,
about power to the people.
and Steve Wozniak
和史蒂芬·沃兹尼亚克这些人,
don't try to change human nature,
不要尝试去改变人性,
and it does not even bend,
可是并没起作用,
if you want to make the world better
最有效的办法就是,
differently like the New Left was,
做些另类的行为,
that go in the right direction.
this is one of the first images,
Earth from outer space.
看到的地球的影像。
that in the spring of '66,
on a rooftop in San Francisco,
在致幻剂的作用下,
something that Fuller talked about,
that the Earth is flat
in terms of its resources,
that it's a sphere
on my hundred micrograms
which were right in front of me
they were sort of fanned out like this.
而是呈扇形散开状,就像这样。
they are on a curved surface.
坐落在一个弧形的平面上。
I would see that even more clearly,
就能看的更清晰。
看到圆形的地球了。
the circle of Earth from space.
我们已经探索外太空十年了……
in space for 10 years --
从来没有往回看过。
or looking at just parts of the Earth.
或者只看一部分的地球。
a photograph of the whole Earth yet?
没有看过地球全景的照片呢?
and senators, secretaries got it,
参议员和部长们那里,
in the Politburo got it,
Catalog came out,
一个文明得以发展的秘诀是:
lazy and ingenious
that you see --
Whole Earth banners and so on --
way to make the system go
不仅是最有效的方式,
the whole system around in a big way,
horsing-around problems,
it will adjust to the tweak.
系统本身就会自我调整。
among many other things,
in the environmental movement,
taking on a lot of,
almost believe are heresies.
a couple of those.
and Arctic region, used to look like.
以前看上去是这样的。
used to look like that.
and the Serengeti now,
和塞伦盖蒂平原发现的
throughout the world.
不仅是把那些动物带回来,
is to not only bring back those animals
stabilization system over the long run,
成为一个气候稳定系统。
there in the background
a 200-year goal.
可能需要200年来实现。
the extinction rate
in the background.
of bio-abundance will take longer,
should think of extinctions.
我们如何看待灭绝。
concerns right now
at a faster rate than ever in history.
要比以往任何时期都快。
of the Sixth Extinction
of the Sixth Extinction.
the de-extinction business,
with Revive & Restore,
灭绝到底是怎么回事。
going on with extinction.
set of data out there
indicated by the yellow triangles,
标记出了五次大规模的灭绝。
66 million years ago
我们将会面临下一次陨石撞击灾难。
for a paper I wrote,
75 percent of all the species
of five-and-a-half-million species,
one and a half million.
identified every year.
还在持续不断地发生。
going on out there.
“大灭绝”这个词的时候
kind of used in strange ways.
卡尔·齐默写的一篇文章,
in the New York Times,
海洋中存在大规模灭绝”
Broad Studies Show."
and it mentions that since 1500,
have gone extinct in the oceans,
none in the last 50 years.
into the story, and it's saying,
are so overfishing the wild fishes,
the fish populations in the oceans
are probably going to go extinct.
容易引起恐慌的标题,
"Oh my God, start panicking,
“我的天,开始恐慌吧,
all the species in the oceans."
looking into in a little more detail,
读更多细节的时候,
that are considered threatened
相同或不同程度的威胁,
for the Conservation of Nature, the IUCN.
国际自然保护联盟(IUCN)
surveying the loss of wildlife,
for more centuries and millennia,
of a sixth extinction.
有义务这么做。
a moral responsibility to,
他们所看到的问题,
the thing that they are looking at,
无法引起人们的重视。
maybe no one listens.
这样道德,那样道德,
moral this or moral that --
"precautionary principle" --
拒绝什么的时候说的。
to basically say no to things.
fish extinction, animal extinction,
鱼类灭绝,动物灭绝,
促进它们生长吗?
同时造成了损失。
and there is losses going on.
are caused by agriculture,
and basically makes it more condensed,
vertical farms in town,
about how to grow pot in basements,
在容器中种植蔬菜。
vegetables inside containers --
为自然做的最主要的事。
we can do for nature.
of a destruction of the landscape is good.
bringing back species, rewilding ...
这些家伙有什么故事?
What's the story with these guys?
at peak children being alive.
fewer and fewer children.
of human population,
maybe nine and a half billion,
but probably going down.
更加可能呈下滑趋势。
that plays out in Europe
of abandoned farmland now,
corridors in Europe.
因为许多农田是相连的,
so many of these farms are connected
便直接形成了生态走廊,
reforested wildlife corridors,
in this case, to Spain.
to the Netherlands.
There's lynx coming back.
我之前都不知道有这个物种。
I had no idea such a thing existed.
回到欧洲其他地区。
to the rest of Europe.
很有趣的是,这些动物都是食肉动物。
which is kind of interesting.
也很欢迎它们回来。
They've been missed.
当你把这些食肉动物带回来,
when you bring back the predators,
ecosystem often.
和大型动物……
and large animals --
with sharp teeth and claws --
for a really rich ecosystem.
激动人心的野生化的项目。
more dramatic rewilding project
恐怖又毛绒绒的的猛犸象带回来?
these terrifying woolly mammoths?
are the closest relative
基因上非常相近,
genetically very close.
in evolutionary history.
很近期才分化为不同物种。
亚洲象与猛犸象更为相近。
are closer to woolly mammoths
to African elephants
与哈佛大学的乔治·丘奇一起工作,
with George Church at Harvard,
for four major traits
四个主要特征的基因,
genome of the woolly mammoth,
研究充分的猛犸象基因组中,
"ancient DNA analysis."
into living Asian elephant cell lines,
转移到活的亚洲象的细胞株中,
their proper place thanks to CRISPR.
让这些基因找到了合适的地方。
那样把基因注射进去。
like you did with genetic engineering.
你基本上能编辑一个等位基因,
basically, one allele,
of another allele.
可以通过亚洲象的生殖细胞
Asian elephant germline cells
of the traits that you're going for
需要一个代孕母体,
a surrogate mother,
by conservation biologists,
curly-trunked, Asian elephant
in the sub-Arctic.
to get them there?
好像不喜欢雪,对吧?”
they don't like snow, right?"
bigger than people.
用象鼻,从小雪球开始,
you can start a little thing,
这种跨物种克隆是很复杂的。
is tricky business, anyway.
the surrogate Asian elephant mothers?"
我们可以用人造子宫培育它们。”
says, "That's all right.
and grow them that way."
next century, maybe,"
this week in Nature
in which they've grown a lamb
成功培育了一只小羊,
its gestation period.
还在持续不断的进步。
want a world where --
有几千只硕大的长毛象,
thousands of these things
working on the woolly mammoth seriously:
目前在认真的研究猛犸象:
we're kind of in the middle;
研究遗传学的一群人;
that are doing the genetics in the lab;
old scientist named Zimov
who has bought into the system,
Zimov have been, for 25 years,
所谓的“更新世公园”,
"Pleistocene Park,"
of Siberia that is pure tundra.
of the animals on the landscape there
居住在那片冻原,
我们看到很多动物。
we saw lots of animals.
还有北方针叶林。
and then there's the boreal forest.
那里只有少量的动物。
There's just a few animals there.
a lot of grazing animals:
they're bringing in some bison,
原有的动物数量。
that they used to be.
变回原有的草地,
the moss, back into grassland.
会融化,释放很多二氧化碳,
and releasing a lot of carbon dioxide
25 square miles,
stabilization thing.
very absorbent to sunlight,
when snow is on the ground.
白雪覆盖的时候也一样。
around the North Pole --
around the North Pole --
最高产的生物群落之一,
biomes in the world,
Sergey Zimov and Nikita
谢尔盖·齐莫夫和尼基塔·齐莫夫
they got for nothing,
"这些树不能生产粪便(肥料)!”
"... and they make no dung!"
包括猛犸象。
animals do, including mammoths.
称之为保护伞物种。
what conservation biologists call
就像中国的熊猫,或其他什么……
pandas in China or wherever --
会为它们带来更好的生活,
of making life good for that animal
也就是一个生态系统,
of creatures and plants,
of being self-managing,
最终可以自我管理,
can back off and say,
是防止有害物入侵,
the destructive invasives,
在某一刻让更多其它物种反灭绝。
that you're dreaming of de-extincting
like to move on to
how mammoths might help
如何有助于西伯利亚的绿化,
tropical rainforest,
you've thought about a lot.
is one of the most awful curses
是其中一个最可怕的诅咒。
to climate change.
this graph here, or this map.
that you get from headlines
去查查发生了什么其他事,
calls "narrative violation."
称之为“违背主旨”的内容。
is master of putting it out there --
阿尔戈尔十分擅长于此……
气候变化很快就会到来。
civilization-threatening
尤其是二氧化碳,
of greenhouse gases, especially CO2,
非常、非常大的麻烦之中。
但这只是片面的信息,
but it's not the whole story,
比这些片面信息更加有趣。
than these fragmentary stories.
和水组成,加上日照。
plus water via sunshine.
industrialized greenhouses,
工业化温室注入二氧化碳,
turn that into plant matter.
将它转换为植物质。
完成的研究结果展示,
with satellites and other things,
是过去 33 年的状况,
over the last 33 years or so,
leaf action going on.
初级生产的工作在进行。
what ecologists call "primary production."
goes up with this.
that is sucking it down
and goes right back up,
是我们需要记得的,
of what you need to bear in mind,
and engineering climate
是个非常复杂的过程。
tweaking around with the system
看看它会不会变得更好,
see it's still getting better,
back off half a turn.
“不是所有绿植都能起相同的作用。”
"Not all green is created equal."
the magnificence of the rainforest
和多样性为代价
大概像绿藻层和草地之类的。
or grass or something like that.
所有形式的植物数量都在增长。
every form of plant is increasing.
left out of this study
in the oceans.
大部分是微生物,
the most important thing.
that create the atmosphere
James Lovelock has been insisting;
一直在坚持的事;
尤其是对海洋生物,
especially of ocean life,
of too much CO2 in the atmosphere,
排放到大气中大量的二氧化碳
如何应对的这一现象的?
the ocean doing with that?
海洋正在膨胀。
the sea level rise,
海平面会继续上升。
with more global warming.
to some of the coral reefs,
a lot of bleaching from overheating.
in our previous session on the main stage,
在之前主舞台上说的:
is worth experimenting with enough
在气候变暖方面争取时间,
in the warming aspect of all of this,
but usable research,
还可以多做些什么。
do more than tweak.
在最后几分钟即将讨论的
we're going to talk about
was just published by Yuval Harari.
of humans is to become as gods.
下一阶段的进化会变得像神一样。
And you've probably finished the book.
你应该已经读过这本书。
一个非常激进的观点。
重新制造我们自己,
completely remake ourselves
非常激进的、全新的历史篇章。
brand-new chapter of history.
我不记得了。
likes provoking people.
I'm excited and nervous.
在TED上分享了这么多信息,
is trying hard to lean towards
让我乐观看待它,
part of me is saying,
be a little bit careful
去思考这些问题。”
isn't it, for TED?
a little bit schizophrenic.
statement that you made
一个令人惊讶的表述,
Whole Earth Catalog,
and might as well get good at it."
you've upgraded that statement.
is that documentation
到目前为止是这样。
from somebody --
它现在还对我有很大影响!
it hasn't forgiven me yet!
when somebody quoted it,
当别人引用它,并说:
what you originally wrote
在 1968 年初版《全球目录》上的原话。
“我们像神一样,不妨去习惯它。”
and might as well get used to it.'"
这些我们告诉自己的故事
the stories we tell ourselves
“我们像神一样,不妨好好成为他。”
and might as well get good at it,"
called "Whole Earth Discipline:
basically saying that we are as gods
我们像神一样,不得不好好成为他。
不得不好好成为他。
and have to get good at it.
the psychological reaction
很多人的心理反应是
as you talk about geoengineering
is that humans should be gods --
对傲慢自大的看法。
narrative about hubris.
really sure of yourself,
cautionary tale to always have at hand.
I've kept for myself is:
I am dead wrong about.
with scientists these days,
looks pretty good,
看上去非常好的时候,
of not only suspicions
“还有什么事在发生”的疑问,
away from fake news.
把这一点应用于环境上,
of this just for the environment:
无论你喜欢与否,
is that, whether we like it or not,
很多地球上发生的事了,
of what happens on planets,
无意识的在做这些事。
doing it intentionally.
有意的去做一些事。
getting good at being a god?
能让我们先试行一下吗?
or systems we can nudge and play with?
to Buckminster Fuller
and anthropologist and biologist
心理学家,和其他领域。
basically look at themselves.
you want to always be looking at things.
这是你如何观察事物的一部分。
approach to geoengineering
地球工程的方式是,
was talking about earlier --
really incrementally,
然后看看它会如何反应,
see how it responds,
that people say, quite rightly,
how the climate system works.
you don't understand."
“那好吧,这一定适用于人体,
applies to the human body,
and we're kind of glad that it has."
that is so large and complex
an anti-hubristic approach.
and dialogue and all these other things
所谈论的内容提要,关于多样性,
about earlier with Sebastian [Thrun].
是寻求社会许可,
is looking for social license,
that I think is a good one,
problematic, deep issues
paying close attention
as it's going forward,
as it's going forward --
which is fantastic --
且可以蒙混过关的方法。
that has worked pretty well so far.
and I are optimistic is we read
《人性中的善良天使》,
"The Better Angels of Our Nature,"
建立很多东西:事情可以变得更好,
of: things are capable of getting better,
并进一步应用它们。
that happen and apply those further.
on that optimistic note,
are willing to challenge yourself
过于肯定的方法
allowing yourself to be too certain
是非常深刻而又令人振奋的。
and inspiring, actually,
ABOUT THE SPEAKERS
Stewart Brand - Environmentalist, futuristSince the counterculture '60s, Stewart Brand has been creating our internet-worked world. Now, with biotech accelerating four times faster than digital technology, Stewart Brand has a bold new plan ...
Why you should listen
With biotech accelerating four times faster than digital technology, the revival of extinct species is becoming possible. Stewart Brand plans to not only bring species back but restore them to the wild.
Brand is already a legend in the tech industry for things he’s created: the Whole Earth Catalog, The WELL, the Global Business Network, the Long Now Foundation, and the notion that “information wants to be free.” Now Brand, a lifelong environmentalist, wants to re-create -- or “de-extinct” -- a few animals that’ve disappeared from the planet.
Granted, resurrecting the woolly mammoth using ancient DNA may sound like mad science. But Brand’s Revive and Restore project has an entirely rational goal: to learn what causes extinctions so we can protect currently endangered species, preserve genetic and biological diversity, repair depleted ecosystems, and essentially “undo harm that humans have caused in the past.”
Stewart Brand | Speaker | TED.com
Chris Anderson - TED Curator
After a long career in journalism and publishing, Chris Anderson became the curator of the TED Conference in 2002 and has developed it as a platform for identifying and disseminating ideas worth spreading.
Why you should listen
Chris Anderson is the Curator of TED, a nonprofit devoted to sharing valuable ideas, primarily through the medium of 'TED Talks' -- short talks that are offered free online to a global audience.
Chris was born in a remote village in Pakistan in 1957. He spent his early years in India, Pakistan and Afghanistan, where his parents worked as medical missionaries, and he attended an American school in the Himalayas for his early education. After boarding school in Bath, England, he went on to Oxford University, graduating in 1978 with a degree in philosophy, politics and economics.
Chris then trained as a journalist, working in newspapers and radio, including two years producing a world news service in the Seychelles Islands.
Back in the UK in 1984, Chris was captivated by the personal computer revolution and became an editor at one of the UK's early computer magazines. A year later he founded Future Publishing with a $25,000 bank loan. The new company initially focused on specialist computer publications but eventually expanded into other areas such as cycling, music, video games, technology and design, doubling in size every year for seven years. In 1994, Chris moved to the United States where he built Imagine Media, publisher of Business 2.0 magazine and creator of the popular video game users website IGN. Chris eventually merged Imagine and Future, taking the combined entity public in London in 1999, under the Future name. At its peak, it published 150 magazines and websites and employed 2,000 people.
This success allowed Chris to create a private nonprofit organization, the Sapling Foundation, with the hope of finding new ways to tackle tough global issues through media, technology, entrepreneurship and, most of all, ideas. In 2001, the foundation acquired the TED Conference, then an annual meeting of luminaries in the fields of Technology, Entertainment and Design held in Monterey, California, and Chris left Future to work full time on TED.
He expanded the conference's remit to cover all topics, including science, business and key global issues, while adding a Fellows program, which now has some 300 alumni, and the TED Prize, which grants its recipients "one wish to change the world." The TED stage has become a place for thinkers and doers from all fields to share their ideas and their work, capturing imaginations, sparking conversation and encouraging discovery along the way.
In 2006, TED experimented with posting some of its talks on the Internet. Their viral success encouraged Chris to begin positioning the organization as a global media initiative devoted to 'ideas worth spreading,' part of a new era of information dissemination using the power of online video. In June 2015, the organization posted its 2,000th talk online. The talks are free to view, and they have been translated into more than 100 languages with the help of volunteers from around the world. Viewership has grown to approximately one billion views per year.
Continuing a strategy of 'radical openness,' in 2009 Chris introduced the TEDx initiative, allowing free licenses to local organizers who wished to organize their own TED-like events. More than 8,000 such events have been held, generating an archive of 60,000 TEDx talks. And three years later, the TED-Ed program was launched, offering free educational videos and tools to students and teachers.
Chris Anderson | Speaker | TED.com