ABOUT THE SPEAKERS
Stewart Brand - Environmentalist, futurist
Since the counterculture '60s, Stewart Brand has been creating our internet-worked world. Now, with biotech accelerating four times faster than digital technology, Stewart Brand has a bold new plan ...

Why you should listen

With biotech accelerating four times faster than digital technology, the revival of extinct species is becoming possible. Stewart Brand plans to not only bring species back but restore them to the wild.

Brand is already a legend in the tech industry for things he’s created: the Whole Earth Catalog, The WELL, the Global Business Network, the Long Now Foundation, and the notion that “information wants to be free.” Now Brand, a lifelong environmentalist, wants to re-create -- or “de-extinct” -- a few animals that’ve disappeared from the planet.

Granted, resurrecting the woolly mammoth using ancient DNA may sound like mad science. But Brand’s Revive and Restore project has an entirely rational goal: to learn what causes extinctions so we can protect currently endangered species, preserve genetic and biological diversity, repair depleted ecosystems, and essentially “undo harm that humans have caused in the past.”

More profile about the speaker
Stewart Brand | Speaker | TED.com
Chris Anderson - TED Curator
After a long career in journalism and publishing, Chris Anderson became the curator of the TED Conference in 2002 and has developed it as a platform for identifying and disseminating ideas worth spreading.

Why you should listen

Chris Anderson is the Curator of TED, a nonprofit devoted to sharing valuable ideas, primarily through the medium of 'TED Talks' -- short talks that are offered free online to a global audience.

Chris was born in a remote village in Pakistan in 1957. He spent his early years in India, Pakistan and Afghanistan, where his parents worked as medical missionaries, and he attended an American school in the Himalayas for his early education. After boarding school in Bath, England, he went on to Oxford University, graduating in 1978 with a degree in philosophy, politics and economics.

Chris then trained as a journalist, working in newspapers and radio, including two years producing a world news service in the Seychelles Islands.

Back in the UK in 1984, Chris was captivated by the personal computer revolution and became an editor at one of the UK's early computer magazines. A year later he founded Future Publishing with a $25,000 bank loan. The new company initially focused on specialist computer publications but eventually expanded into other areas such as cycling, music, video games, technology and design, doubling in size every year for seven years. In 1994, Chris moved to the United States where he built Imagine Media, publisher of Business 2.0 magazine and creator of the popular video game users website IGN. Chris eventually merged Imagine and Future, taking the combined entity public in London in 1999, under the Future name. At its peak, it published 150 magazines and websites and employed 2,000 people.

This success allowed Chris to create a private nonprofit organization, the Sapling Foundation, with the hope of finding new ways to tackle tough global issues through media, technology, entrepreneurship and, most of all, ideas. In 2001, the foundation acquired the TED Conference, then an annual meeting of luminaries in the fields of Technology, Entertainment and Design held in Monterey, California, and Chris left Future to work full time on TED.

He expanded the conference's remit to cover all topics, including science, business and key global issues, while adding a Fellows program, which now has some 300 alumni, and the TED Prize, which grants its recipients "one wish to change the world." The TED stage has become a place for thinkers and doers from all fields to share their ideas and their work, capturing imaginations, sparking conversation and encouraging discovery along the way.

In 2006, TED experimented with posting some of its talks on the Internet. Their viral success encouraged Chris to begin positioning the organization as a global media initiative devoted to 'ideas worth spreading,' part of a new era of information dissemination using the power of online video. In June 2015, the organization posted its 2,000th talk online. The talks are free to view, and they have been translated into more than 100 languages with the help of volunteers from around the world. Viewership has grown to approximately one billion views per year.

Continuing a strategy of 'radical openness,' in 2009 Chris introduced the TEDx initiative, allowing free licenses to local organizers who wished to organize their own TED-like events. More than 8,000 such events have been held, generating an archive of 60,000 TEDx talks. And three years later, the TED-Ed program was launched, offering free educational videos and tools to students and teachers.

More profile about the speaker
Chris Anderson | Speaker | TED.com
TED2017

Stewart Brand and Chris Anderson: Mammoths resurrected, geoengineering and other thoughts from a futurist

史都華 · 布蘭德&克里斯 · 安德森: 從未來學家的觀點看復活長毛象、地球工程,及更多的想法分享

Filmed:
1,163,242 views

史都華 · 布蘭德是位未來學家、反主流主義者,他有著卓越寬廣的遠見。在與 TED 總監克里斯 · 安德森的對話中,布蘭德全面性地探討了:人性、長毛象復活計畫、地球工程、動物野放和科學的草圖;穿插了一段發生在 60 年代舊金山某個屋頂,和著迷幻情緒,啟發的願景。布蘭德提到:「故事告訴我們,我們會是下一顆造成重大改變的隕石。」然而,「事態有能力往好的方向發展。」
- Environmentalist, futurist
Since the counterculture '60s, Stewart Brand has been creating our internet-worked world. Now, with biotech accelerating four times faster than digital technology, Stewart Brand has a bold new plan ... Full bio - TED Curator
After a long career in journalism and publishing, Chris Anderson became the curator of the TED Conference in 2002 and has developed it as a platform for identifying and disseminating ideas worth spreading. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:12
Chris克裡斯 Anderson安德森: OK, Stewart斯圖爾特,
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克里斯 · 安德森:好,史都華,
60 年代時,大概 1968 年,
你創立了這份雜誌。
00:14
in the '60s, you -- I think it was '68 --
you founded成立 this magazine雜誌.
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史都華 · 布蘭德:太棒了!
這是原版的,現在很難找到了。
00:19
Stewart斯圖爾特 Brand: Bravo布拉沃!
It's the original原版的 one.
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00:21
That's hard to find.
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克:是。這是第一期,對吧?
史:是的。
00:23
CACA: Right. Issue問題 One, right?
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00:24
SBSB: Mm毫米 hmm.
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克:為什麼它產生了
這麼大的影響力?
00:25
CACA: Why did that make so much impact碰撞?
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史:我在那時主要是參與了
反主流文化運動。
00:29
SBSB: Counterculture反傳統 was the main主要 event事件
that I was part部分 of at the time,
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由嬉皮和新左派組成的
反主流文化運動。
00:33
and it was made製作 up
of hippies嬉皮士 and New Left.
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參與的約是與我同時期的人,
00:37
That was sort分類 of my contemporaries同時代,
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我只比他們年長一點點。
00:39
the people I was just slightly older舊的 than.
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我的方式是去觀察
有趣的趨勢在哪裡,
00:42
And my mode模式 is to look
at where the interesting有趣 flow is
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然後去看與它相反的方向。
00:47
and then look in the other direction方向.
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克:(笑)
00:49
CACA: (Laughs)
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00:51
SBSB: Partly部分地, I was trained熟練 to do that
as an army軍隊 officer,
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史:部份原因來自於
我在當陸軍軍官時受的訓練。
同時也以不費力的啟發方式
來尋找獨創性:
00:53
but partly部分地, it's just a cheap低廉 heuristic啟發式
to find originalities創意:
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別跟著大家看往同個方向,
00:56
don't look where everybody每個人
else其他 is looking,
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看另外一邊。
00:59
look the opposite對面 way.
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那時反主流文化的狀況是
01:00
So the deal合同 with counterculture反傳統 is,
the hippies嬉皮士 were very romantic浪漫
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嬉皮們非常浪漫,
有點反現代科技,
01:04
and kind of against反對 technology技術,
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除了山德士牌的迷幻藥;
01:06
except very good LSDLSD from SandozSandoz,
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01:09
and the New Left was against反對 technology技術
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而新左派反對現代科技,
因為他們認為它只是種動力裝置。
01:12
because they thought
it was a power功率 device設備.
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01:15
Computers電腦 were: do not spindle紡錘,
fold, or mutilate毀傷.
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電腦不能釘、不能對摺、不能切半。
於是就反對它。
01:19
Fight鬥爭 that.
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01:20
And so, the Whole整個 Earth地球 Catalog目錄
was kind of a counter-counterculture反反 thing
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所以,《全球目錄》算是
反–反主流文化的東西,
在某種意義上我相信
巴克敏斯特 · 富勒的觀點,
01:25
in the sense that I bought
Buckminster巴克明斯特 Fuller's富勒 idea理念
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01:30
that tools工具 of are of the essence本質.
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就是工具是精華部分。
01:33
Science科學 and engineers工程師 basically基本上
define確定 the world世界 in interesting有趣 ways方法.
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科學和工程師基本上
用很有趣的方式定義了世界。
如果所有的政客消失一個星期
01:38
If all the politicians政治家
disappeared消失 one week,
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會很麻煩;
01:41
it would be ... a nuisance滋擾.
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01:43
But if all the scientists科學家們
and engineers工程師 disappeared消失 one week,
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但如果所有的科學家
和工程師消失一星期,
那情況就遠遠超過麻煩。
01:46
it would be way more than a nuisance滋擾.
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克:我認為現代人仍然相信這個觀點。
01:48
CACA: We still believe that, I think.
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史:所以把焦點放在那上面。
01:51
SBSB: So focus焦點 on that.
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之後,新左派提出賦權於人民。
01:54
And then the New Left was talking
about power功率 to the people.
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01:59
And people like Steve史蒂夫 Jobs工作
and Steve史蒂夫 Wozniak沃茲尼亞克
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像賈柏斯和史帝夫 · 沃茲尼克這些人,
02:02
cut that and just said, power功率 to people,
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擷取為賦權於人,
02:06
tools工具 that actually其實 work.
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工具產生實際效果。
02:08
And so, where Fuller富勒 was saying
don't try to change更改 human人的 nature性質,
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富勒曾說不要試圖改變人類天性,
儘管人們已嘗試了很久,
但人類天性甚至一點也沒變。
02:13
people have been trying for a long time
and it does not even bend彎曲,
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但要改變工具很容易。
02:17
but you can change更改 tools工具 very easily容易.
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如果你想讓世界變得更好,
那有效的做法
02:19
So the efficient高效 thing to do
if you want to make the world世界 better
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並不是讓人們像新左派那樣
做出奇怪的舉動,
02:22
is not try to make people behave表現
differently不同 like the New Left was,
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而只需給他們朝向正確方向的工具。
02:25
but just give them tools工具
that go in the right direction方向.
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那就是《全球目錄》在探討的。
02:28
That was the Whole整個 Earth地球 Catalog目錄.
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克:史都華,中心的這張圖,
02:30
CACA: And Stewart斯圖爾特, the central中央 image圖片 --
this is one of the first images圖片,
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是人們第一次從外太空
看地球的影像之一。
02:34
the first time people had seen看到
Earth地球 from outer space空間.
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那也帶來了一次衝擊。
02:36
That had an impact碰撞, too.
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02:38
SBSB: It was kind of a chance機會
that in the spring彈簧 of '66,
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史:那是 1966 年的春天,
那算是種巧合,
我在舊金山的一個屋頂上,
在迷幻藥的作用下,
02:42
thanks謝謝 to an LSDLSD experience經驗
on a rooftop屋頂 in San Francisco弗朗西斯科,
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去思考了一句同樣是富勒說過的話,
02:45
I got thinking思維 about, again,
something that Fuller富勒 talked about,
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就是許多人假設地球是平的,
02:48
that a lot of people assume承擔
that the Earth地球 is flat平面
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且它的資源是無限的,
02:50
and kind of infinite無窮
in terms條款 of its resources資源,
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但你一旦理解地球是圓的,
02:53
but once一旦 you really grasp把握
that it's a sphere領域
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且資源也是有限的,
02:55
and that there's only so much of it,
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那麼你就會開始節省使用你的資源,
02:57
then you start開始 husbanding更為駕輕就熟 your resources資源
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而且把它視為是有限的系統。
03:00
and thinking思維 about it as a finite有限 system系統.
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他用的比喻是「地球號太空船」。
03:02
"Spaceship飛船 Earth地球" was his metaphor隱喻.
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03:04
And I wanted that to be the case案件,
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我希望是那樣的,
但伴隨著一百微克的迷幻藥,
03:07
but on LSDLSD I was getting得到 higher更高 and higher更高
on my hundred micrograms微克
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我在舊金山的屋頂上變得愈來愈嗨,
03:11
on the roof屋頂 of San Francisco弗朗西斯科,
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03:14
and noticed注意到 that the downtown市中心 buildings房屋
which哪一個 were right in front面前 of me
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我注意到我眼前的市區建築
不是平行的,它們是如扇形展開的。
03:19
were not all parallel平行,
they were sort分類 of fanned煽動 out like this.
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那是因為它們位在曲面上。
03:22
And that's because
they are on a curved彎曲 surface表面.
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若我能位於更高的位置,
我就能看得更清楚,
03:26
And if I were even higher更高,
I would see that even more clearly明確地,
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再更高,就再更清楚,
03:29
higher更高 than that, more clearly明確地 still,
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足夠高時,曲線就會合起來,
03:31
higher更高 enough足夠, and it would close,
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你就會看到從太空看到的圓形地球。
03:32
and you would get
the circle of Earth地球 from space空間.
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我心想,我們已航行太空十年了——
03:35
And I thought, you know, we've我們已經 been
in space空間 for 10 years年份 --
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那是 1966 年的時候——
03:38
at that time, this is '66 --
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太空鏡頭始終沒有往回看。
03:40
and the cameras相機 had never looked看著 back.
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它們總是向外看或是
只看地球的某個部分。
03:42
They'd他們會 always been looking out
or looking at just parts部分 of the Earth地球.
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所以我問,為何我們仍舊
沒看到完整的地球照片?
03:45
And so I said, why haven't沒有 we seen看到
a photograph照片 of the whole整個 Earth地球 yet然而?
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這話就傳開來了,美國太空總署、
議員們、秘書長們都聽到了,
03:50
And it went around and NASANASA got it
and senators參議員, secretaries秘書 got it,
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共產黨中央執行委員會
一些不同的人也聽到了,
03:53
and various各個 people
in the Politburo政治局 got it,
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所以這話就一直傳、一直傳。
03:55
and it went around and around.
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在兩年半之內,
03:57
And within two and a half years年份,
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大約是《全球目錄》要出版的時候,
03:58
about the time the Whole整個 Earth地球
Catalog目錄 came來了 out,
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這些影像開始出現了,
04:01
these images圖片 started開始 to appear出現,
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的確,它們真的改變了一切。
04:02
and indeed確實, they did transform轉變 everything.
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而我對於潛入人類文明的看法是:
04:04
And my idea理念 of hacking黑客 civilization文明
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04:09
is that you try to do something
lazy and ingenious巧妙
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你試著去做漫不經心
且別出心裁的東西,
竟會巧妙轉變整個情況。
04:13
and just sort分類 of trick the situation情況.
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所以你們看到的所有這些照片——
04:16
So all of these photographs照片
that you see --
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接著是上週的科學遊行抗議,
04:18
and then the march遊行 for science科學 last week,
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他們帶著《全球目錄》的旗幟等等——
04:20
they were carrying攜帶 these
Whole整個 Earth地球 banners橫幅 and so on --
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我不費吹灰之力就做到了。
04:23
I did that with no work.
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那些小徽章,我一個賣 25 分錢。
04:26
I sold出售 those buttons鈕扣 for 25 cents apiece一塊.
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所以,你知道,微調體系,
04:28
So, you know, tweaking扭捏 the system系統
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04:32
is, I think, not only the most efficient高效
way to make the system系統 go
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依我所見,讓體系以有趣方式運作的
不僅僅是最有效率的方式,
04:36
in interesting有趣 ways方法,
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在某些情況下,還是最安全的方式,
04:37
but in some ways方法, the safest最安全 way,
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因為當你試圖以大動作
來調整整個系統時,
04:39
because when you try to horse
the whole整個 system系統 around in a big way,
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你就會遇到無法回頭的問題,
04:42
you can get into big
horsing-around胡鬧-周邊 problems問題,
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但如果你只作微調,
系統本身就會自我調整,
04:45
but if you tweak it,
it will adjust調整 to the tweak.
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克:所以,那時起,
除了許多其他形象,
04:48
CACA: So since以來 then,
among其中 many許多 other things,
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你還被視為環境運動的領導者,
04:50
you've been regarded認為 as a leading領導 voice語音
in the environmental環境的 movement運動,
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但你也是反主流文化主義者,
04:53
but you are also a counterculturalistcounterculturalist,
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最近,你受到了很多…
04:55
and recently最近, you've been
taking服用 on a lot of,
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就是…由於你聲稱的觀點,
04:59
well, you've been declaring聲明
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你幾乎被許多環境主義者視為異端。
05:00
what a lot of environmentalists環保主義者
almost幾乎 believe are heresies異端邪說.
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我有點想要探討其中幾個。
05:03
I kind of want to explore探索
a couple一對 of those.
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比如說,與我談談這張圖片。
05:05
I mean, tell me about this image圖片 here.
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05:08
SBSB: Ha-ha哈哈!
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史:哈哈!
那是國家地理雜誌的圖片,
05:10
That's a National國民 Geographic地理 image圖片
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圖上的是所謂的長毛象草原,
05:12
of what is called the mammoth長毛象 steppe草原,
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05:16
what the far north, the sub-Arctic亞北極
and Arctic北極 region地區, used to look like.
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遙遠的北方,亞北極和北極圈
曾經看起來是這個樣子。
05:20
In fact事實, the whole整個 world世界
used to look like that.
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事實上,整個世界曾經就是這個樣子。
05:24
What we find in South Africa非洲
and the Serengeti塞倫蓋蒂 now,
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我們現在在南非及塞倫蓋提所發現的
許多大型動物
05:27
lots of big animals動物,
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以前也出現在加拿大的這個區域,
05:29
was the case案件 in this part部分 of Canada加拿大,
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還有整個美國、整個歐亞大陸、
甚至整個世界。
05:32
throughout始終 the US, throughout始終 Eurasia歐亞大陸,
throughout始終 the world世界.
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這就是以前的常態,
05:35
This was the norm規範
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05:37
and can be again.
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它也能再次成為現代的常態。
05:40
So in a sense,
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就某種意義上來說,
現在,我的長期目標
不僅是要帶回這些動物
05:42
my long-term長期 goal目標 at this point
is to not only bring帶來 back those animals動物
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和當時形成的草地,
05:47
and the grassland草原 they made製作,
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長程來說這種草地
是種形成氣候穩定的系統,
05:50
which哪一個 could be a climate氣候
stabilization穩定 system系統 over the long run,
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就連在圖中遠方的那些長毛象,
05:55
but even the mammoths猛獁象
there in the background背景
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也是我計劃中的的一部分。
05:57
that are part部分 of the story故事.
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05:59
And I think that's probably大概
a 200-year-年 goal目標.
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我想,那大概是個需時兩百年的計畫。
06:04
Maybe in 100, by the end結束 of this century世紀,
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也許一百年,就在這個世紀末,
我們應該能夠降低絕種比率
06:06
we should be able能夠 to dial撥號 down
the extinction滅絕 rate
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到背景中所呈現的樣子。
06:09
to sort分類 of what it's been
in the background背景.
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復活這麼多的生物種類,
會需要更長的時間,
06:11
Bringing back this amount
of bio-abundance生物豐度 will take longer,
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但是這是值得做的。
06:14
but it's worth價值 doing.
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克:我們待會再回到長毛象的部分,
06:15
CACA: We'll come back to the mammoths猛獁象,
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但可否解釋一下
我們該怎麼看待絕種問題。
06:17
but explain說明 how we
should think of extinctions滅絕.
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很顯然地,
目前令人擔心的重大問題之一
06:20
Obviously明顯, one of the huge巨大
concerns關注 right now
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是生物絕種的速度
比史上任何時期都快。
06:24
is that extinction滅絕 is happening事件
at a faster更快 rate than ever in history歷史.
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那是一夕之間爆紅的東西。
06:28
That's the meme米姆 that's out there.
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我們該如何看待此事?
06:31
How should we think of it?
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史:大家在說的事情
06:33
SBSB: The story故事 that's out there
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是我們正處在第六次大滅絕當中,
06:34
is that we're in the middle中間
of the Sixth第六 Extinction消光
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或在第六次大滅絕的開端。
06:37
or maybe in the beginning開始
of the Sixth第六 Extinction消光.
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因為我們正進行反滅絕,
06:39
Because we're in
the de-extinction去滅絕 business商業,
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Revive & Restore
(組織名)做的也是預防滅絕,
06:42
the preventing-extinction防止滅絕 business商業
with Revive復活 &amp功放; Restore恢復,
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我們開始探究滅絕到底是怎麼回事。
06:45
we started開始 looking at what's actually其實
going on with extinction滅絕.
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結果顯示,對數據收集有一定難度,
06:48
And it turns out, there's a very confused困惑
set of data數據 out there
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因為數據被過度簡化了,
06:52
which哪一個 gets得到 oversimplified過於簡單
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簡化成一種說法,我們正在變成…
06:55
into the narrative敘述 of we're becoming變得 ...
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這裡顯示了五次大滅絕,
已用黃色三角形標示出來,
06:58
Here are five mass extinctions滅絕 that are
indicated指示 by the yellow黃色 triangles三角形,
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我們現在就正面臨下一次的大滅絕。
07:03
and we're now next下一個.
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最右邊的最後一次
07:06
The last one there on the far right
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是 6600 萬年前,
由隕石撞擊造成的恐龍滅絕。
07:08
was the meteor流星 that struck來襲
66 million百萬 years年份 ago
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07:11
and did in the dinosaurs恐龍.
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07:14
And the story故事 is, we're the next下一個 meteor流星.
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那麼仿間說法聲稱,
我們即將是下一個隕石。
而現狀是這樣的。
07:17
Well, here's這裡的 the deal合同.
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我為這個主題進行了一篇論文研究,
07:18
I wound傷口 up researching研究 this
for a paper I wrote,
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物種滅絕的定義是
全世界所有物種的 75%
07:21
that a mass extinction滅絕 is when
75 percent百分 of all the species種類
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都絕跡。
07:27
in the world世界 go extinct絕種.
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07:31
Well, there's on the order訂購
of five-and-a-half-million五和半百萬 species種類,
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而世界上大約有 550 萬物種,
07:34
of which哪一個 we've我們已經 identified確定
one and a half million百萬.
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其中有 150 萬種已知。
每年人類還會再辨視出
1 萬 4 千種。
07:36
Another另一個 14,000 are being存在
identified確定 every一切 year.
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外頭有很多生物科學計畫在進行著。
07:39
There's a lot of biology生物學
going on out there.
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07:42
Since以來 1500,
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從 1500 年起,
07:45
about 500 species種類 have gone走了 extinct絕種,
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大約有 500 種物種絕跡,
07:49
and you'll你會 see the term術語 "mass extinction滅絕"
kind of used in strange奇怪 ways方法.
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那你會發現使用
「物種滅絕」這個詞有點奇怪。
大約一年半前,
07:53
So there was, about a year and a half ago,
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紐約時報頭版刊登
卡爾季默撰寫的一篇報導,
07:55
a front-page首頁 story故事 by Carl卡爾 Zimmer齊默
in the New York紐約 Times,
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「大量研究顯示,
海洋中的物種正滅絕」
07:58
"Mass Extinction消光 in the Oceans海洋,
Broad廣闊 Studies學習 Show顯示."
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08:02
And then you read into the article文章,
and it mentions提到 that since以來 1500,
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接著你細讀文章,
文中提及自從 1500 年起,
海洋中有 15 種物種,
十五種喔,絕種了,
08:06
15 species種類 -- one, five --
have gone走了 extinct絕種 in the oceans海洋,
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喔,順道一提,
過去五十年間沒有物種絕種。
08:11
and, oh, by the way,
none沒有 in the last 50 years年份.
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再進一步閱讀這個故事,它說:
08:14
And you read further進一步
into the story故事, and it's saying,
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正在發生中的可怕狀況是
08:16
the horrifying可怕的 thing that's going on
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漁業過渡捕撈野生魚類,
08:18
is that the fisheries漁業
are so overfishing過度捕撈 the wild野生 fishes魚類,
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造成海洋中魚類數量
08:22
that it is taking服用 down
the fish populations人群 in the oceans海洋
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減少了 38%。
08:25
by 38 percent百分.
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08:27
That's the serious嚴重 thing.
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那是個很嚴肅的事。
那些物種可能沒有一種會絕種。
08:29
None沒有 of those species種類
are probably大概 going to go extinct絕種.
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所以,寫那個標題的人就只是
08:32
So you've just put, that headline標題 writer作家
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按了一個應急按鈕
08:36
put a panic恐慌 button按鍵
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在這故事上頭,
08:38
on the top最佳 of the story故事.
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然後誘使你去看的用意,
08:40
It's clickbaitclickbait kind of stuff東東,
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但它僅是在說:
「喔,天啊,開始覺得恐慌吧,
08:41
but it's basically基本上 saying,
"Oh my God, start開始 panicking恐慌,
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我們即將失去海洋中所有的物種。」
08:45
we're going to lose失去
all the species種類 in the oceans海洋."
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根本沒有像這樣的事情會發生。
08:47
Nothing like that is in prospect展望.
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08:50
And in fact事實, what I then started開始
looking into in a little more detail詳情,
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事實上,當我開始做更細節的研究時,
08:55
the Red List名單 shows節目 about 23,000 species種類
that are considered考慮 threatened受威脅
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國際自然保護聯盟瀕危物種紅色名錄
顯示有 23,000 種物種
被認為受到某種程度的威脅,
08:59
at one level水平 or another另一個,
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這些資料來自於
國際自然保護聯盟(IUCN)。
09:00
coming未來 from the International國際 Union聯盟
for the Conservation保護 of Nature性質, the IUCN世界自然保護聯盟.
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《自然》雜誌有一篇文章,
調查了野生生命的滅絕,
09:04
And Nature性質 Magazine雜誌 had a piece
surveying測量學 the loss失利 of wildlife野生動物,
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09:09
and it said,
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文中寫到:
「如果所有 23,000 種物種都滅絕
09:11
"If all of those 23,000 went extinct絕種
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且是在大約下個世紀發生,
09:14
in the next下一個 century世紀 or so,
186
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那絕種速率將會持續數世紀、數千年,
09:16
and that rate of extinction滅絕 carried攜帶的 on
for more centuries百年 and millennia千年,
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那麼我們就有可能處於
第六次大滅絕的開端」
09:21
then we might威力 be at the beginning開始
of a sixth第六 extinction滅絕.
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所以,這種說法誇張得過頭了。
09:25
So the exaggeration誇張 is way out of hand.
189
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2004
但環境學家總是在誇大其詞。
09:27
But environmentalists環保主義者 always exaggerate誇大.
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那是個問題。
09:29
That's a problem問題.
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克:他們可能認為
有道德責任要這麼做,
09:31
CACA: I mean, they probably大概 feel
a moral道德 responsibility責任 to,
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因為他們非常在乎他們所研究的東西,
09:34
because they care關心 so much about
the thing that they are looking at,
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而你若不引起點騷動,
可能根本沒有人會理會。
09:37
and unless除非 you bang the drum for it,
maybe no one listens監聽.
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史:每當有人說道德這個、道德那個,
09:40
SBSB: Every一切 time somebody says
moral道德 this or moral道德 that --
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「道德危害」、「預防原則」,
09:43
"moral道德 hazard冒險,"
"precautionary預防 principle原理" --
196
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這些詞基本上被 用來抗拒事物。
09:46
these are terms條款 that are used
to basically基本上 say no to things.
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09:51
CACA: So the problem問題 isn't so much
fish extinction滅絕, animal動物 extinction滅絕,
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克:所以問題並不是
魚類絕種、動物絕種,
而是魚類繁盛、動物繁盛,
09:55
it's fish flourishing芊芊, animal動物 flourishing芊芊,
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某種程度上我們在促進牠們的成長?
09:58
that we're crowding擁擠 them to some extent程度?
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史:是的,我認為我們的確在
促進牠們的成長,且造成了損失。
10:00
SBSB: Yeah, and I think we are crowding擁擠,
and there is losses損失 going on.
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重大的損失由農業引起,
10:04
The major重大的 losses損失
are caused造成 by agriculture農業,
202
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所以能改善農業的東西,
基本上會帶來更高密度,
10:07
and so anything that improves提高 agriculture農業
and basically基本上 makes品牌 it more condensed冷凝,
203
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和更高產量,
10:13
more highly高度 productive生產的,
204
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1702
拜託,基因改造也是,
10:15
including包含 GMOs轉基因生物, please,
205
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1979
但即使你想要在市區內做直立式農場,
10:17
but even if you want to do
vertical垂直 farms農場 in town,
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包括室內農場,
10:19
including包含 inside farms農場,
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所有關於如何在地下室
種植大麻的知識,
10:21
all the things that have been learned學到了
about how to grow增長 pot in basements地下室,
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現在都被應用來在容器內種植蔬菜。
10:24
is now being存在 applied應用的 to growing生長
vegetables蔬菜 inside containers集裝箱 --
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3181
那很棒,那都是好事,
10:27
that's great, that's all good stuff東東,
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1868
因為我們主要能做的,
就是節約大自然用地。
10:29
because land土地 sparing保守的 is the main主要 thing
we can do for nature性質.
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10:34
People moving移動 to cities城市 is good.
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人們搬到城市中是好的。
10:36
Making製造 agriculture農業 less
of a destruction毀壞 of the landscape景觀 is good.
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地貌不太會讓農業破壞是好的。
克:有人在談論回歸物種本性,野化。
10:41
CACA: There people talking about
bringing使 back species種類, rewilding野化 ...
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首先,野化物種,這些人是怎麼回事?
10:44
Well, first of all, rewilding野化 species種類:
What's the story故事 with these guys?
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史:哈哈!狼!
10:47
SBSB: Ha-ha哈哈! Wolves.
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10:50
Europe歐洲, connecting to the previous以前 point,
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歐洲呢,和先前的論點相連結,
可能正處於農田佔地比例的高峰,
10:53
we're now at probably大概 peak farmland農田,
218
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順道一提,就人口方面來說,
10:56
and, by the way, in terms條款 of population人口,
219
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我們孩童的存活率已到了頂峰。
10:57
we are already已經
at peak children孩子 being存在 alive.
220
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因此,將來的孩童會越來越少。
11:00
Henceforth今後, there will be
fewer and fewer children孩子.
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2485
人口數量在做最後一次的翻倍,
11:03
We are in the last doubling加倍
of human人的 population人口,
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人口數可能會達到 90 或 95 億,
11:06
and it will get to nine,
maybe nine and a half billion十億,
223
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接著不僅會開始趨緩,還可能會下降,
11:10
and then start開始 not just leveling練級 off,
but probably大概 going down.
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11:14
Likewise同樣, farmland農田 has now peaked見頂,
225
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2923
同樣的,農田佔地比正處於高峰,
在歐州,呈現出來現象果之一就是
11:17
and one of the ways方法
that plays播放 out in Europe歐洲
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有很多被廢棄的農田,
11:21
is there's a lot
of abandoned farmland農田 now,
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這些農田馬上就重新變回森林了。
11:24
which哪一個 immediately立即 reforestsreforests.
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1753
在歐洲,他們不做野生動物廊道,
11:26
They don't do wildlife野生動物
corridors走廊 in Europe歐洲.
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11:28
They don't need to, because
so many許多 of these farms農場 are connected連接的
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3098
他們不需要,
因為許多農田都相連在一起,
重新造就,變成野生動物廊道的叢林,
11:32
that they've他們已經 made製作
reforested重新造林 wildlife野生動物 corridors走廊,
231
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例如,狼群就重新回到西班牙。
11:35
that the wolves are coming未來 back,
in this case案件, to Spain西班牙.
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牠們走了好長一段路到荷蘭。
11:38
They've他們已經 gotten得到 all the way
to the Netherlands荷蘭.
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2542
熊會回來,山貓會回來。
11:40
There's bears coming未來 back.
There's lynx猞猁 coming未來 back.
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3556
還有歐洲豺,我之前
完全不知道有這種動物存在。
11:44
There's the European歐洲的 jackal.
I had no idea理念 such這樣 a thing existed存在.
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牠們會從義大利及歐洲其他地方回來。
11:47
They're coming未來 back from Italy意大利
to the rest休息 of Europe歐洲.
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而不像這裡,這些都是掠食性動物,
這點蠻有趣的。
11:50
And unlike不像 here, these are all predators大鱷,
which哪一個 is kind of interesting有趣.
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歐洲人歡迎牠們,人們想念牠們。
11:53
They are being存在 welcomed歡迎 by Europeans歐洲人.
They've他們已經 been missed錯過.
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克:違反直覺地,
當你把掠食性動物帶回來,
11:57
CACA: And counterintuitively違反直覺,
when you bring帶來 back the predators大鱷,
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其實增加了而不是減少
12:00
it actually其實 increases增加 rather than reduces減少
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其背後生態系統的多樣性。
12:02
the diversity多樣 of the underlying底層
ecosystem生態系統 often經常.
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史:是的,一般來說,
掠食性動物和大型動物,
12:04
SBSB: Yeah, generally通常 predators大鱷
and large animals動物 --
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大型動物和銳牙利爪的大型動物,
12:08
large animals動物 and large animals動物
with sharp尖銳 teeth and claws --
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其實對於豐富生態系統是很重要的。
12:11
are turning車削 out to be highly高度 important重要
for a really rich豐富 ecosystem生態系統.
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克:這就把我們帶到
這個戲劇般的野化計畫,
12:16
CACA: Which哪一個 maybe brings帶來 us to this rather
more dramatic戲劇性 rewilding野化 project項目
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你也參與其中。
12:20
that you've got yourself你自己 involved參與 in.
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為什麼有人想要把這些
駭人又毛茸茸的的長毛象帶回來?
12:22
Why would someone有人 want to bring帶來 back
these terrifying可怕的 woolly長毛 mammoths猛獁象?
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史:嗯。亞洲象是毛茸茸長毛象
12:25
SBSB: Hmm. Asian亞洲 elephants大象
are the closest最近的 relative相對的
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最近的近親,
12:28
to the woolly長毛 mammoth長毛象,
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牠們的大小相似,基因上非常相近。
12:31
and they're about the same相同 size尺寸,
genetically基因 very close.
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在演化史上,牠們到很近期才分開。
12:34
They diverged分歧 quite相當 recently最近
in evolutionary發展的 history歷史.
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亞洲象和長毛象比較相近,
12:38
The Asian亞洲 elephants大象
are closer接近 to woolly長毛 mammoths猛獁象
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比和非洲象還近,
12:40
than they are to African非洲人 elephants大象,
253
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但牠們和非洲象的也夠相近了,
12:42
but they're close enough足夠
to African非洲人 elephants大象
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所以牠們能成功混種。
12:44
that they have successfully順利 hybridized雜交.
255
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12:47
So we're working加工
with George喬治 Church教會 at Harvard哈佛,
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我們和哈佛的喬治 · 秋吉合作。
已經成功搬移了四項主要特徵的基因,
12:51
who has already已經 moved移動 the genes基因
for four major重大的 traits性狀
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從現在保存良好且被充份研究過的
長毛象基因組取出,
12:55
from the now well-preserved保存完好, well-studied良好的研究
genome基因組 of the woolly長毛 mammoth長毛象,
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這要感謝所謂的「史前基因分析」。
13:01
thanks謝謝 to so-called所謂
"ancient DNA脫氧核糖核酸 analysis分析."
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在實驗室中,他把那些基因
移植到活的亞洲象細胞株中,
13:05
And in the lab實驗室, he has moved移動 those genes基因
into living活的 Asian亞洲 elephant cell細胞 lines,
260
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感謝 CRISPR(DNA 剪輯),
它們在那裡找到適合它們的地方。
13:10
where they're taking服用 up
their proper正確 place地點 thanks謝謝 to CRISPRCRISPR.
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他們並不是像基因工程那樣
把基因注射進去。
13:14
I mean, they're not shooting射擊 the genes基因 in
like you did with genetic遺傳 engineering工程.
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現在,有了 CRISPR,
基本上你可以編輯一組對偶基因,
13:18
Now with CRISPRCRISPR you're editing編輯,
basically基本上, one allele等位基因,
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將它改放到另一組對偶基因的位置上。
13:21
and replacing更換 it in the place地點
of another另一個 allele等位基因.
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13:25
So you're now getting得到 basically基本上
Asian亞洲 elephant germline生殖系 cells細胞
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所以,基本上,
你現在讓亞洲象的生殖細胞
針對你所尋求的特徵,
13:31
that are effectively有效 in terms條款
of the traits性狀 that you're going for
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讓它們能夠在北極區感到舒適,
13:35
to be comfortable自在 in the Arctic北極,
267
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13:38
you're getting得到 them in there.
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你再把牠們弄到那裡。
所以我們走過了
13:40
So we go through通過 the process處理
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採用代理孕母的過程,
13:41
of getting得到 that through通過
a surrogate代孕 mother母親,
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2684
亞洲象孕母。
13:44
an Asian亞洲 elephant mother母親.
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保育生物學家是這麼稱呼它的,代母,
13:46
You can get a proxy代理, as it's being存在 called
by conservation保護 biologists生物學家,
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4698
長毛象的代母,
13:50
of the woolly長毛 mammoth長毛象,
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1401
實際上就是一隻捲鼻長毛
13:52
that is effectively有效 a hairy毛茸茸,
curly-trunked捲曲集群, Asian亞洲 elephant
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5187
且很適應亞北極區的亞洲象。
13:57
that is perfectly完美 comfortable自在
in the sub-Arctic亞北極.
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2945
那現在許多人就在說:
14:00
Now, it's the case案件, so many許多 people say,
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2091
「嗯,那你要如何把牠們弄到那裡?
14:02
"Well, how are you going
to get them there?
277
830711
2008
亞洲象並不喜歡雪,對吧?」
14:04
And Asian亞洲 elephants大象,
they don't like snow, right?"
278
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2367
結果發現,牠們喜歡雪。
14:07
Well, it turns out, they do like snow.
279
835134
1884
在安大略動物園裡就有一些亞洲象
14:09
There's some in an Ontario安大略 zoo動物園
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837042
1540
牠們會做出比人還大的雪球。
14:10
that have made製作 snowballs雪球
bigger than people.
281
838606
2283
牠們就是愛——你知道,
有象鼻,能從小雪球開始玩起,
14:12
They just love -- you know, with a trunk樹幹,
you can start開始 a little thing,
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滾動它,讓它變大。
14:16
roll it and make it bigger.
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1642
人們接著說:
14:18
And then people say,
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1275
「好吧,但懷孕要 22 個月。
14:20
"Yeah, but it's 22 months個月 of gestation妊娠.
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3470
14:25
This kind of cross-species跨物種 cloning克隆
is tricky狡猾 business商業, anyway無論如何.
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4541
總之,這種跨物種複製
是很難處理的事。
你會失去一些亞洲象代理孕母嗎?」
14:30
Are you going to lose失去 some of
the surrogate代孕 Asian亞洲 elephant mothers母親?"
287
858298
3265
接著,喬治秋吉說:「沒關係。
14:33
And then George喬治 Church教會
says, "That's all right.
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861587
2203
我們可以用人工子宮的方式
來孕育牠們。」
14:35
We'll do an artificial人造 uterus子宮
and grow增長 them that way."
289
863814
2568
接著人們說:
「是啊,也許下個世紀吧」
14:38
Then people say, "Yeah,
next下一個 century世紀, maybe,"
290
866406
2270
然而,這個週末
《自然》刊出一則新聞,
14:40
except the news新聞 came來了 out
this week in Nature性質
291
868700
2254
內容是,他們已經成功
在人工子宮中培育出一隻小羊了,
14:42
that there's now an artificial人造 uterus子宮
in which哪一個 they've他們已經 grown長大的 a lamb羊肉
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4323
目前四週大。
14:47
to four weeks.
293
875325
1437
那是孕期的一半了。
14:48
That's halfway through通過
its gestation妊娠 period.
294
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2724
14:52
So this stuff東東 is moving移動 right along沿.
295
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2272
所以,這技術在往前進步。
克:但,為何我們會想要一個世界——
14:54
CACA: But why should we
want a world世界 where --
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2749
想像一個世界,有數千隻這樣的動物
14:57
Picture圖片 a world世界 where there are
thousands數千 of these things
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885136
2719
在西伯利亞雷霆萬鈞地移動。
14:59
thundering雷鳴的 across橫過 Siberia西伯利亞.
298
887879
1957
那是個更好的世界嗎?
15:01
Is that a better world世界?
299
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1274
史:有可能,它是——
15:03
SBSB: Potentially潛在. It's --
300
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1801
(笑)
15:04
(Laughter笑聲)
301
892983
1619
有三個團體基本上很認真地
在研究長毛象:
15:06
There's three groups, basically基本上,
working加工 on the woolly長毛 mammoth長毛象 seriously認真地:
302
894626
4995
Revive & Restore,
我們也算參與其中;
15:11
Revive復活 &amp功放; Restore恢復,
we're kind of in the middle中間;
303
899645
2286
在哈佛實驗室中研究基因的
喬治 · 秋吉團隊;
15:13
George喬治 Church教會 and the group at Harvard哈佛
that are doing the genetics遺傳學 in the lab實驗室;
304
901955
3691
還有一位很了不起的
老科學家,吉莫夫,
15:17
and then there's an amazing驚人
old scientist科學家 named命名 Zimov茲莫夫
305
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6157
他在北西伯利亞做研究,
15:23
who works作品 in northern北方 Siberia西伯利亞,
306
911851
4240
他的兒子尼基塔相信這個系統,
15:28
and his son兒子 Nikita尼基塔,
who has bought into the system系統,
307
916115
3124
賽吉和尼基塔 · 吉莫夫 25 年來
15:31
and they are, Sergey謝爾蓋 and Nikita尼基塔
Zimov茲莫夫 have been, for 25 years年份,
308
919263
6310
一直在創造他們所謂的「更新世公園」
15:37
creating創建 what they call
"Pleistocene更新世 Park公園,"
309
925597
2407
這個公園位在西伯利亞
非常嚴峻的地區,是純凍原。
15:40
which哪一個 is a place地點 in a really tough強硬 part部分
of Siberia西伯利亞 that is pure tundra苔原.
310
928028
4885
15:45
And the research研究 that's been doneDONE shows節目
311
933858
2368
已經有研究顯示
在那裡的動物,
可能只剩下過去的 1%
15:48
that there's probably大概 one one-hundredth第一百
of the animals動物 on the landscape景觀 there
312
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5329
過去曾經是像
15:53
that there used to be.
313
941603
1373
先前的圖片那般,我們看到很多動物,
15:55
Like that earlier image圖片,
we saw lots of animals動物.
314
943000
2456
現在幾乎沒有了。
15:57
Now there's almost幾乎 none沒有.
315
945480
1298
凍原大部分是苔蘚,還有北極森林。
15:59
The tundra苔原 is mostly大多 moss苔蘚,
and then there's the boreal寒帶 forest森林.
316
947199
3549
就是這樣的,各位
那裡就只有一點點動物。
16:02
And that's the way it is, folks鄉親.
There's just a few少數 animals動物 there.
317
950772
3128
所以人們帶進來了許多放牧動物:
16:05
So they brought in
a lot of grazing放牧 animals動物:
318
953924
2146
麝香牛、雅庫特馬,
也帶進來了一些野牛,
16:08
musk ox, YakutianYakutian horses馬匹,
they're bringing使 in some bison野牛,
319
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3105
他們現在又帶進來更多一些,
16:11
they're bringing使 in some more now,
320
959223
1788
把這些動物放到以前牠們群聚的地方。
16:13
and put them in at the density密度
that they used to be.
321
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3176
吃草的動物孕育了草地。
16:16
And grasslands草原 are made製作 by grazers食草動物.
322
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2992
這些動物就在那裡,放牧吃草,
16:19
So these animals動物 are there, grazing放牧 away,
323
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3591
那麼,牠們會做幾件事。
16:22
and they're doing a couple一對 of things.
324
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1856
首先,牠們會把凍原、苔蘚變回草地。
16:24
First of all, they're turning車削 the tundra苔原,
the moss苔蘚, back into grassland草原.
325
972746
3672
草地就能處理碳問題。
16:28
Grassland草地 fixes修復 carbon.
326
976442
1821
凍原會在暖化的環境中融解
並釋放許多二氧化碳,
16:30
Tundra苔 原, in a warming變暖 world世界, is thawing解凍
and releasing釋放 a lot of carbon dioxide二氧化碳
327
978287
4810
還有甲烷。
16:35
and also methane甲烷.
328
983121
1699
所以,雖然只有小小
25 平方英哩的面積,
16:36
So already已經 in their little
25 square廣場 miles英里,
329
984844
2897
它們也在穩定氣候。
16:39
they're doing a climate氣候
stabilization穩定 thing.
330
987765
2290
不過,那故事的一部分是,
16:42
Part部分 of that story故事, though雖然,
331
990596
2012
北極森林非常會吸收陽光,
16:44
is that the boreal寒帶 forest森林 is
very absorbent吸水 to sunlight陽光,
332
992632
4869
即使冬天地面上有雪時也一樣。
16:49
even in the winter冬季
when snow is on the ground地面.
333
997525
2595
而這有著長毛象的西伯利亞大草原,
16:52
And the way the mammoth長毛象 steppe草原,
334
1000144
1656
16:53
which哪一個 used to wrap all the way
around the North Pole --
335
1001824
2623
以前包圍著北極周圍,
在北極周圍有許多大陸,
16:56
there's a lot of landmass大陸
around the North Pole --
336
1004471
2388
都是佈滿草地。
16:58
that was all this grassland草原.
337
1006883
2751
大草原非常壯麗,
17:01
And the steppe草原 was magnificent華麗的,
338
1009658
2621
可能是世界上最豐饒的
生物群落區之一,
17:04
probably大概 one of the most productive生產的
biomes生物群落 in the world世界,
339
1012303
4306
也是世界上最大的生物群落區。
17:08
the biggest最大 biome生物群落 in the world世界.
340
1016633
1658
現在,它森林的部分,
由賽吉 · 吉莫夫和尼基塔
17:11
The forest森林 part部分 of it, right now,
Sergey謝爾蓋 Zimov茲莫夫 and Nikita尼基塔
341
1019052
4158
開著他們免費拿到的老軍事坦克出去,
17:15
go out with this old military軍事 tank坦克
they got for nothing,
342
1023234
3242
把樹撞倒,
17:18
and they knock down the trees樹木.
343
1026500
1748
那是無趣的事,很累人,
17:20
And that's a bore, and it's tiresome煩人的,
344
1028272
3002
賽吉說:「…而且它們(樹木)
不會製造糞肥!」
17:23
and as Sergey謝爾蓋 says,
"... and they make no dung!"
345
1031298
2823
順道一提,這些大型動物會
製造糞肥,包括長毛象。
17:26
which哪一個, by the way, these big
animals動物 do, including包含 mammoths猛獁象.
346
1034145
3709
所以長毛象變成了
保育生物學家所稱的
17:29
So mammoths猛獁象 become成為
what conservation保護 biologists生物學家 call
347
1037878
2922
庇護物種。
17:32
an umbrella雨傘 species種類.
348
1040824
1463
它是個引發熱潮的動物,
就像中國或任何地方的熊貓,
17:34
It's an exciting扣人心弦 animal動物 --
pandas大熊貓 in China中國 or wherever哪裡 --
349
1042311
3662
熱潮持續下去,
那些動物的生活就會過得很好,
17:37
that the excitement激動 that goes on
of making製造 life good for that animal動物
350
1045997
4327
熱潮造就了棲息地,即生態系統,
17:42
is making製造 a habitat棲息地, an ecosystem生態系統,
351
1050348
2212
這對許多生物和植物都有益,
17:44
which哪一個 is good for a whole整個 lot
of creatures生物 and plants植物,
352
1052584
2821
理想上,這個生態會到達
能夠自我管理的程度,
17:47
and it ideally理想 gets得到 to the point
of being存在 self-managing自我管理,
353
1055429
3294
那時保育生物學家就會退開說:
17:50
where the conservation保護 biologists生物學家
can back off and say,
354
1058747
2587
「我們只需要把毀滅性的入侵
給擋在外面就好,
17:53
"All we have to do is keep out
the destructive有害 invasivesinvasives,
355
1061358
2975
這東西就能自己運作。」
17:56
and this thing can just cook廚師."
356
1064357
1640
17:58
CACA: So there's many許多 other species種類
that you're dreaming做夢 of de-extinctingde 劇增
357
1066585
3801
克:所以,你也夢想著要讓
許多其他物種「反絕種」,
遲早的問題,
18:02
at some point,
358
1070410
1234
但,我想要接著談的想法是:
18:03
but I think what I'd actually其實
like to move移動 on to
359
1071668
3016
你先前談到關於毛象如何能協助,
18:06
is this idea理念 you talked about
how mammoths猛獁象 might威力 help
360
1074708
3424
在某種層面上將西伯利亞綠化,
18:10
green綠色 Siberia西伯利亞 in a sense,
361
1078156
2406
或至少,我指的不是熱帶雨林,
18:12
or at least最小, I'm not talking about
tropical熱帶 rainforest雨林,
362
1080586
5909
但你花很多心思在
地球綠化的這個問題上。
18:18
but this question of greening綠化 the planet行星
you've thought about a lot.
363
1086519
3881
而傳統的故事說法是
18:22
And the traditional傳統 story故事 is
364
1090424
2168
砍伐森林在目前這個時代
18:24
that deforestation森林砍伐
is one of the most awful可怕 curses詛咒
365
1092616
6258
是最可怕的詛咒之一,
18:30
of modern現代 times,
366
1098898
1573
它是氣候變遷背後很重大的因素。
18:32
and that it's a huge巨大 contributor貢獻者
to climate氣候 change更改.
367
1100495
3855
接著,你寄給我這張圖,或說是地圖。
18:36
And then you went and sent發送 me
this graph圖形 here, or this map地圖.
368
1104374
3482
這是什麼地圖?
18:39
What is this map地圖?
369
1107880
1362
史:全球綠化。
18:41
SBSB: Global全球 greening綠化.
370
1109266
1408
當你從頭條或是簡短新聞報導
18:43
The thing to do with any narrative敘述
that you get from headlines新聞頭條
371
1111284
4415
得到一些敘事時,
18:47
and from short news新聞 stories故事
372
1115723
1879
要做的事是去看看
還有發生什麼其他的事,
18:49
is to look for what else其他 is going on,
373
1117626
1973
18:52
and look for what Marc渣子 Andreessen安德里森
calls電話 "narrative敘述 violation違反."
374
1120327
4594
尋找馬克 · 安德森所說的
「敘事違規」。
18:57
So the narrative敘述 -- and Al Gore血塊
is master of putting it out there --
375
1125416
5239
敘事故事——艾爾 · 高爾是
這方面的應用大師——
他說有個威脅到文明的氣候變遷
19:02
is that there's this
civilization-threatening文明威脅
376
1130679
4087
19:06
climate氣候 change更改 coming未來 on very rapidly急速.
377
1134790
2122
以非常快的速度在發生。
我們得要停止產生所有額外的
溫室氣體,尤其是二氧化碳,
19:08
We have to cease停止 all extra額外 production生產
of greenhouse溫室 gases氣體, especially特別 COCO2,
378
1136936
6062
越快越好,
19:15
as soon不久 as possible可能,
379
1143022
1156
否則,我們就會陷入很大的麻煩。
19:16
otherwise除此以外, we're in deep, deep trouble麻煩.
380
1144202
2539
那些都是事實,但並不是整個故事,
19:18
All of that is true真正,
but it's not the whole整個 story故事,
381
1146765
2418
整個故事比這些片段故事更有趣。
19:21
and the whole整個 story故事 is more interesting有趣
than these fragmentary殘缺不全 stories故事.
382
1149207
3556
19:25
Plants植物 love COCO2.
383
1153548
2299
植物喜愛二氧化碳。
19:28
What plants植物 are made製作 of is COCO2
plus water via通過 sunshine陽光.
384
1156330
3890
植物的成份就是二氧化碳
加上水,再透過日照。
19:32
And so in many許多 greenhouses大棚,
industrialized工業化 greenhouses大棚,
385
1160985
4845
所以,在許多溫室中
工業化的溫室中,
他們會添加二氧化碳
因為植物會把它轉為植物質。
19:37
they add COCO2 because the plants植物
turn that into plant matter.
386
1165854
3266
已經有用衛星和其他東西
做了一些研究,
19:41
So the studies學習 have been doneDONE
with satellites衛星 and other things,
387
1169144
3030
這張圖上的是
過去超過 33 年的狀況,
19:44
and what you're seeing眼看 here is a graph圖形 of,
over the last 33 years年份 or so,
388
1172198
4072
多了 14% 的葉子在作用。
19:48
there's 14 percent百分 more
leaf action行動 going on.
389
1176294
6164
多了那麼些生物量。
19:54
There's that much more biomass生物質.
390
1182482
1604
多了那麼些生態學家所謂的
「主要產物」。
19:56
There's that much more
what ecologists生態學家 call "primary production生產."
391
1184110
3142
多了那麼多的生命,
19:59
There's that much more life happening事件,
392
1187276
1945
要歸功於氣候變遷。
20:01
thanks謝謝 to climate氣候 change更改,
393
1189245
1296
要歸功於我們所有該死的燃煤發電廠。
20:02
thanks謝謝 to all of our goddam該死 coal煤炭 plants植物.
394
1190565
2852
所以——哇,到底怎麼一回事?
20:05
So -- whoa, what's going on here?
395
1193441
2770
順道一提,作物產量也會跟著提升。
20:08
By the way, crop作物 production生產
goes up with this.
396
1196235
3615
這是對於二氧化碳增加壞處的
20:11
This is a partial局部 counter計數器
397
1199874
4278
20:16
to the increase增加 of COCO2,
398
1204176
3260
部分反證,
因為有那麼多的植物在吸收二氧化碳
20:19
because there's that much more plant
that is sucking吸吮 it down
399
1207460
3361
成為植物質。
20:22
into plant matter.
400
1210845
1335
有些會腐爛,回到大氣層;
20:24
Some of that then decays衰變
and goes right back up,
401
1212204
2298
但有些則會向下到達根部
20:26
but some of it is going down into roots
402
1214526
1942
進入土壤,留在那裡。
20:28
and going into the soil and staying there.
403
1216492
2046
所以你得記得這些反證的例子,
20:30
So these counter計數器 things are part部分
of what you need to bear in mind心神,
404
1218562
3863
而且,當故事越講越深,
20:34
and the deeper更深 story故事 is
405
1222449
1717
去思考、
20:36
that thinking思維 about and dealing交易 with
and engineering工程 climate氣候
406
1224190
4857
處理氣候的工程,
就是個很複雜的過程。
20:41
is a pretty漂亮 complex複雜 process處理.
407
1229071
2217
它就像醫學。
20:43
It's like medicine醫學.
408
1231857
1706
再提醒一次,你總是在微調系統,
20:45
You're always, again,
tweaking扭捏 around with the system系統
409
1233587
3220
看看什麼才會造成改善。
20:48
to see what makes品牌 an improvement起色.
410
1236831
1976
然後你就把它再多做些,
看會不會再變更好,
20:50
Then you do more of that,
see it's still getting得到 better,
411
1238831
2688
接著——哎喲!夠了,退回半步。
20:53
then -- oop接力! -- that's enough足夠,
back off half a turn.
412
1241543
2457
克:但有些人可能會說:
「並非所有綠色植物都同樣重要。」
20:56
CACA: But might威力 some people say,
"Not all green綠色 is created創建 equal等於."
413
1244024
3008
有可能我們所做的代價就是
犧牲了壯麗的雨林
20:59
Possibly或者 what we're doing is trading貿易 off
the magnificence壯麗 of the rainforest雨林
414
1247056
3533
以及所有的生物多樣性,
21:02
and all that diversity多樣
415
1250613
1152
只為了,不知道怎麼說耶
綠色池塘浮渣或是草地之類的。
21:03
for, I don't know, green綠色 pond池塘 scum浮渣
or grass or something like that.
416
1251789
3200
史:在一項研究的結果中發現
每一種形式的植物都在增加。
21:07
SBSB: In this particular特定 study研究, it turns out
every一切 form形成 of plant is increasing增加.
417
1255013
3648
而有趣的是,這項研究所漏掉的,
21:10
Now, what's interestingly有趣
left out of this study研究
418
1258685
2254
是海洋中到底發生了什麼事。
21:12
is what the hell地獄 is going on
in the oceans海洋.
419
1260963
2026
海洋中的主要產物,
21:15
Primary production生產 in the oceans海洋,
420
1263013
1818
海洋生物,大部分是微生物,
21:16
the biota生物 of the oceans海洋, mostly大多 microbial微生物,
421
1264855
3132
它們會如何演變,
可能才是最重要的事。
21:20
what they're up to is probably大概
the most important重要 thing.
422
1268011
2684
它們創造了大氣,
21:22
They're the ones那些
that create創建 the atmosphere大氣層
423
1270719
2048
我們才能快樂地呼吸,
21:24
that we're happily高高興興 breathing呼吸,
424
1272791
1807
它們卻沒被納入這項研究中。
21:26
and they're not part部分 of this study研究.
425
1274622
1821
這就是詹姆斯洛夫洛克
一直在堅持的事情之一;
21:29
This is one of the things
James詹姆士 Lovelock洛夫洛克 has been insisting堅持;
426
1277051
2906
基本上,我們對於海洋的認知,
尤其是對海洋生命的認知,
21:31
basically基本上, our knowledge知識 of the oceans海洋,
especially特別 of ocean海洋 life,
427
1279981
3431
是有著根本觀念上的匱乏。
21:35
is fundamentally從根本上 vapor, in this sense.
428
1283436
2127
所以我們正處於探索的過程,
21:37
So we're in the process處理 of finding發現 out
429
1285587
2040
憑藉疏忽地球工程
21:39
by inadvertent非故意的 bad geoengineering地球工程
of too much COCO2 in the atmosphere大氣層,
430
1287651
5239
惡意排放過多的二氧化碳到大氣中,
來尋找海洋會對這個情況的反應?
21:44
finding發現 out, what is
the ocean海洋 doing with that?
431
1292914
2331
好啦,海洋因為有了這額外產生的熱,
21:47
Well, the ocean海洋, with the extra額外 heat,
432
1295269
1898
而正在膨脹。
21:49
is swelling腫脹 up.
433
1297191
1301
對我們影響最大的莫過於海平面上升,
21:50
That's most of where we're getting得到
the sea level水平 rise上升,
434
1298516
2538
和越來越多氣候暖化的例子。
21:53
and there's a lot more coming未來
with more global全球 warming變暖.
435
1301078
2632
珊瑚礁承受嚴重的損害,
21:55
We're getting得到 terrible可怕 harm危害
to some of the coral珊瑚 reefs珊瑚礁,
436
1303734
4418
例如澳洲的珊瑚礁就是其一。
22:00
like off of Australia澳大利亞.
437
1308176
1801
22:02
The great reef there is just
a lot of bleaching from overheating過熱.
438
1310509
4309
這些美麗的珊瑚礁
因為海水過熱而白化。
這正是為何我和丹尼 · 希爾斯
在我們前段主題正文所說的:
22:06
And this is why I and Danny丹尼 Hillis希利斯,
in our previous以前 session會議 on the main主要 stage階段,
439
1314842
6455
22:13
was saying, "Look, geoengineering地球工程
is worth價值 experimenting試驗 with enough足夠
440
1321321
4366
「看吧,地球工程值得被充分地實驗,
來看它到底是如何作用的,
22:17
to see that it works作品,
441
1325711
1486
來看我們可以為暖化
所造成的影響爭取多少時間。
22:19
to see if we can buy購買 time
in the warming變暖 aspect方面 of all of this,
442
1327221
4475
22:24
tweak the system系統 with small
but usable可用 research研究,
443
1332264
4767
對這個系統注入微小而有用的研究,
然後檢視我們是否該投入更多的研究。」
22:29
and then see if we should
do more than tweak.
444
1337055
2312
克:好的,所以這是最後幾分鐘
22:32
CACA: OK, so this is what
we're going to talk about
445
1340119
2393
我們即將談到的主題,
22:34
for the last few少數 minutes分鐘 here
446
1342536
1435
因為這是非常重要的討論。
22:35
because it's such這樣 an important重要 discussion討論.
447
1343995
2046
首先,這本書由尤佛哈拉瑞出版。
22:38
First of all, this book
was just published發表 by Yuval尤瓦 Harari哈拉里.
448
1346065
3745
他基本上是說下一階段
人類的演化是成為神祇。
22:41
He's basically基本上 saying the next下一個 evolution演化
of humans人類 is to become成為 as gods.
449
1349834
4145
我覺得——
22:46
I think he --
450
1354003
1151
史:既然你現在談論到他,
那你大概讀完這本書了。
22:47
SBSB: Now, you've talked to him.
And you've probably大概 finished the book.
451
1355178
3312
我還沒讀完。
22:50
I haven't沒有 finished it yet然而.
452
1358514
1286
他是從哪裡得出——
22:51
Where does he come out on --
453
1359824
1462
克:我的意思是說,
這是個非常極端的看法。
22:53
CACA: I mean, it's a pretty漂亮 radical激進 view視圖.
454
1361310
4162
他認為我們會完全重建自己,
22:57
He thinks that we will
completely全然 remake翻拍 ourselves我們自己
455
1365496
3424
藉由數據和生化工程,
23:00
using運用 data數據, using運用 bioengineering生物工程,
456
1368944
3475
來成為全新的物種,
23:04
to become成為 completely全然 new creatures生物
457
1372443
2140
這物種會有類似超能力,
23:06
that have, kind of, superpowers超級大國,
458
1374607
2026
而且將會有極大的不平等。
23:08
and that there will be huge巨大 inequality不等式.
459
1376657
3232
但我們會因此創造一個
根本上嶄新的歷史。
23:11
But we're about to write a very radical激進,
brand-new全新的 chapter章節 of history歷史.
460
1379913
5273
這是他相信的。
23:17
That's what he believes相信.
461
1385210
1572
史:他對這感到緊張嗎?我忘了。
23:18
SBSB: Is he nervous緊張 about that? I forget忘記.
462
1386806
1943
克:他對這感到緊張。
23:20
CACA: He's nervous緊張 about it,
463
1388773
2441
但我認為他也喜歡煽動人群。
23:23
but I think he also
likes喜歡 provoking發人深省 people.
464
1391238
2892
史:你對這感到緊張嗎?
23:26
SBSB: Are you nervous緊張 about that?
465
1394154
1985
我對這感到緊張。
23:28
CACA: I'm nervous緊張 about that.
466
1396163
1418
23:29
But, you know, with so much at TEDTED,
I'm excited興奮 and nervous緊張.
467
1397605
4065
但處於這麼多 TED 訊息分享中,
我總是興奮又緊張。
我樂觀的一面正努力嘗試勇往向前,
23:33
And the optimist樂天派 in me
is trying hard to lean towards
468
1401694
3756
「這真是太好了,又令人感到振奮」,
23:37
"This is awesome真棒 and really exciting扣人心弦,"
469
1405474
2088
而同時體內某個類似負責任的我會說:
23:39
while the sort分類 of responsible主管
part部分 of me is saying,
470
1407586
2439
「但是,也許我們應該謹慎小心點,
23:42
"But, uh, maybe we should
be a little bit careful小心
471
1410049
2339
就如同我們現在心裡所想的。」
23:44
as to how we think of it."
472
1412412
1323
史:這就是你的獨家秘方,是嗎?
23:45
SBSB: That's your secret秘密 sauce,
isn't it, for TEDTED?
473
1413759
2372
對於 TED,保持緊張又興奮?
23:48
Staying入住 nervous緊張 and excited興奮.
474
1416155
1576
23:50
CACA: It's also the recipe食譜 for being存在
a little bit schizophrenic精神分裂症.
475
1418910
3188
克:這也是維持精神分裂的
一點小秘訣。
但他沒有引用你的話。
23:54
But he didn't quote引用 you.
476
1422122
4685
我想到的是你所做的一個驚奇陳述,
23:58
What I thought was an astonishing驚人
statement聲明 that you made製作
477
1426831
2740
就在原始的《全球目錄》裡,
24:01
right back in the original原版的
Whole整個 Earth地球 Catalog目錄,
478
1429595
4253
你以一段有力的說法當結尾:
24:05
you ended結束 it with this powerful強大 phrase短語:
479
1433872
3200
「我們就像神一般,
那就好好地做好祂。」
24:09
"We are as gods,
and might威力 as well get good at it."
480
1437096
3441
就在最近,你升級了這段話。
24:12
And then more recently最近,
you've upgraded升級 that statement聲明.
481
1440561
2672
我想聽你說說這其中的哲理。
24:15
I want you talk about this philosophy哲學.
482
1443257
1824
史:這個嘛,其一是我體認到
24:17
SBSB: Well, one of the things I'm learning學習
is that documentation文件
483
1445105
3615
紀錄文件總是比記憶強,
到目前為止。
24:20
is better than memory記憶 -- by far.
484
1448744
2992
其二是我從某人身上學到的教訓——
24:23
And one of the things I've learned學到了
from somebody --
485
1451760
2965
24:26
I actually其實 got on Twitter推特.
486
1454749
2655
我玩推特,它改變了我的生活——
24:29
It changed my life --
it hasn't有沒有 forgiven原諒 me yet然而!
487
1457428
3700
這段話還沒放過我!
當有人引用我的這段話,
24:33
And I took ownership所有權 of this phrase短語
when somebody quoted it,
488
1461152
4002
並且說:
24:37
and somebody else其他 said,
489
1465178
1556
「喔!順帶一提,那其實
不是你寫在第一本,
24:38
"Oh by the way, that isn't
what you originally本來 wrote
490
1466758
2463
1968《全球目錄》最原始的版本。
24:41
in that first 1968 Whole整個 Earth地球 Catalog目錄.
491
1469245
2767
你寫的是:『如果我們像神一般,
那就一回生二回熟。』」
24:44
You wrote, 'We'我們 are as gods
and might威力 as well get used to it.'"
492
1472036
3068
我完全忘了有這回事。
24:47
I'd forgotten忘記了 that entirely完全.
493
1475128
2261
這些故事,這些該死的故事啊,
這些我們自己說出來的故事
24:49
The stories故事 -- these goddam該死 stories故事 --
the stories故事 we tell ourselves我們自己
494
1477413
3363
隨著時間變成謊言。
24:52
become成為 lies over time.
495
1480800
1816
所以,紀錄文件會幫忙解決這個問題。
24:55
So, documentation文件 helps幫助 cut through通過 that.
496
1483076
2793
這段話的確演變為「我們就像神一般,
那就好好地做好祂。」
24:57
It did move移動 on to "We are as gods
and might威力 as well get good at it,"
497
1485893
3239
而這是整本《全球目錄》的精神。
25:01
and that was the Whole整個 Earth地球 Catalog目錄.
498
1489156
1885
到我寫這本叫做
25:03
By the time I was doing a book
called "Whole整個 Earth地球 Discipline學科:
499
1491065
3064
《全球規範:生態學家宣言》的書時,
25:06
An EcopragmatistEcopragmatist Manifesto宣言,"
500
1494153
2366
根據氣候變遷的事件,
基本上說明了我們如神一般的存在,
25:08
and in light of climate氣候 change更改,
basically基本上 saying that we are as gods
501
1496543
3192
而且我們「必須」有所作為。
25:11
and have to get good at it.
502
1499759
1599
克:我們就像神一般,
那就好好地做好祂。
25:13
CACA: We are as gods
and have to get good at it.
503
1501382
2264
所以提到這個,
很多人一聽到你說生化工程,
25:15
So talk about that, because
the psychological心理 reaction反應
504
1503670
3559
就產生心理上的反應,
25:19
from so many許多 people as soon不久
as you talk about geoengineering地球工程
505
1507253
3154
他們不認為人類是神。
25:22
is that the last thing they believe
is that humans人類 should be gods --
506
1510431
3261
有些人基於宗教上的理由,
25:25
some of them for religious宗教 reasons原因,
507
1513716
1884
但更多的是人道因素的考量,
25:27
but most just for humility謙遜 reasons原因,
508
1515624
2921
這個系統太複雜,
25:30
that the systems系統 are too complex複雜,
509
1518569
1621
我們不應由此介入。
25:32
we should not be dabbling涉足 that way.
510
1520214
2659
25:35
SBSB: Well, this is the Greek希臘語
narrative敘述 about hubris傲慢.
511
1523642
3939
史:這個嘛,這是對
失序傲慢的希臘式敘述。
當你過於自信時,
25:39
And once一旦 you start開始 getting得到
really sure of yourself你自己,
512
1527605
3267
會發現後來跟自己的母親上了床。
25:42
you wind up sleeping睡眠 with your mother母親.
513
1530896
2657
(笑)
25:45
(Laughter笑聲)
514
1533577
2618
克:我沒料到你會居然這麼說。
25:48
CACA: I did not expect期望 you would say that.
515
1536219
2001
(笑)
25:50
(Laughter笑聲)
516
1538244
1667
史:這是伊底帕斯王的故事。
(註:希臘神話中弒父娶母的人物)
25:53
SBSB: That's the Oedipus俄狄浦斯 story故事.
517
1541600
2588
狂妄自大(註:Hubris,源自希臘)
25:56
Hubris傲慢 is a really important重要
cautionary警示 tale故事 to always have at hand.
518
1544212
5354
是非常重要,讓人時時警惕的故事。
其中一個我對自己的指導方針是:
26:03
One of the guidelines方針
I've kept不停 for myself is:
519
1551734
3782
每天我都會問自己弄錯了多少事。
26:07
every一切 day I ask myself how many許多 things
I am dead wrong錯誤 about.
520
1555540
4519
26:13
And I'm a scientist科學家 by training訓練
521
1561393
3089
我是個受訓過的科學家,
經過這麼些與科學一起工作的日子,
26:16
and getting得到 to work
with scientists科學家們 these days,
522
1564506
2319
那是個單純的喜樂。
26:18
which哪一個 is pure joy喜悅.
523
1566849
1247
科學是有系統地抱持懷疑的態度。
26:20
Science科學 is organized有組織的 skepticism懷疑論.
524
1568120
3072
26:24
So you're always insisting堅持
525
1572042
3536
所以你總是要堅持著,
即使當事情進展看起來很順利,
26:27
that even when something
looks容貌 pretty漂亮 good,
526
1575602
3399
26:31
you maintain保持 a full充分 set
of not only suspicions猜疑
527
1579850
3362
你抱持著不單是懷疑的態度,
而是不論當事情進展看起來多順利,
26:35
about whether是否 it's as good as it looks容貌,
528
1583236
2095
要思考「還有什麼在發生?」
26:37
but: What else其他 is going on?
529
1585355
1597
26:38
So this "What else其他 is going?" on query詢問,
530
1586976
3322
所以這「還有什麼在發生」的質疑,
我覺得就是要擺脫不實的新聞。
26:42
I think, is how you get
away from fake news新聞.
531
1590322
4103
新聞不全然是真的,
26:46
It's not necessarily一定 real真實 news新聞,
532
1594449
2504
但是它總是伴隨著其他複雜的新聞,
26:50
but it's welcomely受歡迎 more complex複雜 news新聞
533
1598274
4049
端看你要如何接受。
26:54
that you're trying to take on.
534
1602347
1537
克:但回過頭來看這個
對環境上的應用:
26:55
CACA: But coming未來 back to the application應用
of this just for the environment環境:
535
1603908
3461
不管我們喜不喜歡,
它似乎已變成一個態勢,
26:59
it seems似乎 like the philosophy哲學 of this
is that, whether是否 we like it or not,
536
1607393
3440
我們已經主導太多
發生在地球上許多層面的事,
27:02
we are already已經 dominating主導 so many許多 aspects方面
of what happens發生 on planets行星,
537
1610857
3443
而且我們是不經意地去做了這些事,
27:06
and we're doing it unintentionally無意中,
538
1614324
1692
27:08
so we really should start開始
doing it intentionally故意地.
539
1616040
4381
所以我們應該開始有意識地去進行。
開始像神一般地好好做事,
會是怎麼樣的情況?
27:12
What would it look like to start開始
getting得到 good at being存在 a god?
540
1620445
3983
我們該如何著手?
27:16
How should we start開始 doing that?
541
1624452
2020
有小規模的實驗或是系統
可以讓我們先進行或實驗嗎?
27:18
Are there small-scale小型 experiments實驗
or systems系統 we can nudge微調 and play with?
542
1626496
3896
我們到底該如何思考這些事?
27:22
How on earth地球 do we think about it?
543
1630416
1959
史:把我從全然投入解放到
27:24
SBSB: The mentor導師 that sort分類 of freed釋放 me
544
1632399
1803
完全忠於巴克敏斯特 · 富勒
(註:哲學/發明家)的導師
27:26
from total allegiance忠誠
to Buckminster巴克明斯特 Fuller富勒
545
1634226
2280
27:28
was Gregory格雷戈里 Bateson貝特森.
546
1636530
1776
是格雷戈里 · 貝特森。
27:30
And Gregory格雷戈里 Bateson貝特森 was an epistemologist認識論
and anthropologist人類學家 and biologist生物學家
547
1638857
6522
格雷戈里 · 貝特森是認識論者,
人類學家和生物學家,
和心理學家,及許多其他事情的專家,
27:37
and psychologist心理學家 and many許多 other things,
548
1645403
1889
27:39
and he looked看著 at how systems系統
basically基本上 look at themselves他們自己.
549
1647316
5099
他以系統如何看待自己的本質
去觀察這些事情。
而這就是,我認為,
部分的你應該總是如此看待事情。
27:44
And that is, I think, part部分 of how
you want to always be looking at things.
550
1652439
5515
而我對於大衛 · 凱斯處理
地球工程方式的喜愛
27:49
And what I like about David大衛 Keith's基斯的
approach途徑 to geoengineering地球工程
551
1657978
3528
在於他不是一股腦兒地就去進行。
27:53
is you don't just haul運輸 off and do it.
552
1661530
1885
大衛 · 凱斯的做法——
27:56
David大衛 Keith's基斯的 approach途徑 --
553
1664093
1287
先前丹尼 · 希爾斯也提過——
27:57
and this is what Danny丹尼 Hillis希利斯
was talking about earlier --
554
1665404
3097
當你真的漸進式地
28:00
is that you do it really,
really incrementally增量,
555
1668525
2445
對系統注入一些東西並觀察它的反應,
28:02
you do some stuff東東 to tweak the system系統,
see how it responds響應,
556
1670994
3869
就會得到有關這個系統的一些事情。
28:06
that tells告訴 you something about the system系統.
557
1674887
2021
那這就安靜且正確地
呼應了人們所說的:
28:08
That's responding響應 to the fact事實
that people say, quite相當 rightly正當地,
558
1676932
4413
「我們在討論什麼?
28:13
"What are we talking about here?
559
1681369
1589
我們不了解氣候系統是怎麼運作的。
28:14
We don't understand理解
how the climate氣候 system系統 works作品.
560
1682982
2377
你無法操作一個你不了解的系統。」
28:17
You can't engineer工程師 a system系統
you don't understand理解."
561
1685383
2671
那麼大衛就說了
「那不就跟人類身體系統一樣,
28:20
And David大衛 says, "Well, that certainly當然
applies適用 to the human人的 body身體,
562
1688569
3183
醫藥能(在不完全了解人體的情況下)
先行,我們也慶幸如此。」
28:23
and yet然而 medicine醫學 goes ahead,
and we're kind of glad高興 that it has."
563
1691776
3782
如此一來,運用巨大而複雜的系統
28:27
The way you engineer工程師 a system系統
that is so large and complex複雜
564
1695582
4013
雖然你無法完全了解它,
28:31
that you can't completely全然 understand理解 it
565
1699619
2020
卻可以慢慢扭轉它,
28:33
is you tweak it,
566
1701663
1194
這就類似一種反無序傲慢的推進,
28:34
and this is kind of
an anti-hubristic抗傲慢 approach途徑.
567
1702881
2601
這就是:嘗試一點點,
28:37
This is: try a little bit here,
568
1705506
1917
如果變成問題了就退回來,
28:39
back the hell地獄 off if it's an issue問題,
569
1707447
2104
如果順利就再往前推進,
28:41
expand擴大 it if it seems似乎 to go OK,
570
1709575
1807
同時,其他方案也可以並進。
28:43
meanwhile與此同時, have other paths路徑 going forward前鋒.
571
1711406
2002
這就是所有事情多元化
和對話交流的論點,
28:45
This is the whole整個 argument論據 for diversity多樣
and dialogue對話 and all these other things
572
1713432
4083
也就像我們之前聽到
賽巴斯丁所說的事情那樣。
28:49
and the things we were hearing聽力
about earlier with Sebastian塞巴斯蒂安 [Thrun史朗].
573
1717539
3235
因此,反無序傲慢的推進
正在尋求社會許可證,
28:53
So the non-hubristic非傲慢 approach途徑
is looking for social社會 license執照,
574
1721393
6490
名義上來說我覺得是好的,
28:59
which哪一個 is a terminology術語
that I think is a good one,
575
1727907
2541
足夠涵蓋社會,
29:02
of including包含 society社會 enough足夠
576
1730472
2147
對於這些有趣、有問題、
有深度的議題,
29:04
in these interesting有趣,
problematic問題, deep issues問題
577
1732643
4001
大家能有好的認知,
29:08
that they get to have a pretty漂亮 good idea理念
578
1736668
3820
讓更多他們信任的人進一步關注,
29:12
and have people that they trust相信
paying付款 close attention注意
579
1740512
2791
29:15
to the sequence序列 of experiments實驗
as it's going forward前鋒,
580
1743327
3824
推進實驗的次序,
促進大眾對談——
29:19
the public上市 dialogue對話
as it's going forward前鋒 --
581
1747175
3019
意味著比以往更公開、
更令人驚奇的——
29:22
which哪一個 is more public上市 than ever,
which哪一個 is fantastic奇妙 --
582
1750218
3095
循著你感覺(正確)的道路上,
29:25
and you feel your way,
583
1753337
2425
29:28
you just ooze your way along沿,
584
1756653
1683
慢慢沿著你的道路行走。
29:30
and this is the muddle-through蒙混過關 approach途徑
that has worked工作 pretty漂亮 well so far.
585
1758360
4610
這只是個過一天算一天的做法,
但是到目前為止都行得通。
賽巴斯丁和我對此保持樂觀的原因
29:34
The reason原因 that Sebastian塞巴斯蒂安
and I are optimistic樂觀 is we read
586
1762994
3609
是當我們讀到像史蒂芬 · 平克的
「人性中的善良天使」,
29:38
people like Steven史蒂芬 Pinker平克,
"The Better Angels天使 of Our Nature性質,"
587
1766627
3473
到目前為止,一切都很順利。
29:42
and so far, so good.
588
1770124
2541
29:45
Now, that can always change更改,
589
1773078
3101
當然,這一切都可能會變。
29:48
but you can build建立 a lot on that sense
of: things are capable of getting得到 better,
590
1776203
5615
但如果你能建造一些概念像是:
事情可以變得更好,
29:54
figure數字 out the tools工具 that made製作
that happen發生 and apply應用 those further進一步.
591
1782587
3201
找出所需的工具幫助它發生,
並讓它更進一步。
那就是我們該做的。
29:57
That's the story故事.
592
1785812
1639
克:史都華,我想
對於抱持樂觀的重要性,
29:59
CACA: Stewart斯圖爾特, I think
on that optimistic樂觀 note注意,
593
1787475
2305
我們該告一段落了。
30:01
we're actually其實 going to wrap up.
594
1789804
1662
我敬佩
30:03
I am in awe威嚴 of how you always
are willing願意 to challenge挑戰 yourself你自己
595
1791490
5117
你總是樂於挑戰自己和別人。
30:08
and other people.
596
1796631
1355
我覺得你不讓自己過於 確定的態度
30:10
I feel like this recipe食譜 for never
allowing允許 yourself你自己 to be too certain某些
597
1798010
5781
非常強而有力,
30:15
is so powerful強大.
598
1803815
1403
我自己也想學更多。
30:17
I want to learn學習 it more for myself,
599
1805242
1931
30:19
and it's been very insightful見地
and inspiring鼓舞人心, actually其實,
600
1807197
4077
今天你的這些分享,
非常富有洞察力,且激勵人心。
30:23
listening to you today今天.
601
1811298
1181
史都華布蘭德,非常感謝你。
30:24
Stewart斯圖爾特 Brand, thank you so much.
602
1812503
1601
史:謝謝。
30:26
SBSB: Thank you.
603
1814128
1158
(鼓掌)
30:27
(Applause掌聲)
604
1815310
3119
Translated by CJ Chung
Reviewed by congmei Han

▲Back to top

ABOUT THE SPEAKERS
Stewart Brand - Environmentalist, futurist
Since the counterculture '60s, Stewart Brand has been creating our internet-worked world. Now, with biotech accelerating four times faster than digital technology, Stewart Brand has a bold new plan ...

Why you should listen

With biotech accelerating four times faster than digital technology, the revival of extinct species is becoming possible. Stewart Brand plans to not only bring species back but restore them to the wild.

Brand is already a legend in the tech industry for things he’s created: the Whole Earth Catalog, The WELL, the Global Business Network, the Long Now Foundation, and the notion that “information wants to be free.” Now Brand, a lifelong environmentalist, wants to re-create -- or “de-extinct” -- a few animals that’ve disappeared from the planet.

Granted, resurrecting the woolly mammoth using ancient DNA may sound like mad science. But Brand’s Revive and Restore project has an entirely rational goal: to learn what causes extinctions so we can protect currently endangered species, preserve genetic and biological diversity, repair depleted ecosystems, and essentially “undo harm that humans have caused in the past.”

More profile about the speaker
Stewart Brand | Speaker | TED.com
Chris Anderson - TED Curator
After a long career in journalism and publishing, Chris Anderson became the curator of the TED Conference in 2002 and has developed it as a platform for identifying and disseminating ideas worth spreading.

Why you should listen

Chris Anderson is the Curator of TED, a nonprofit devoted to sharing valuable ideas, primarily through the medium of 'TED Talks' -- short talks that are offered free online to a global audience.

Chris was born in a remote village in Pakistan in 1957. He spent his early years in India, Pakistan and Afghanistan, where his parents worked as medical missionaries, and he attended an American school in the Himalayas for his early education. After boarding school in Bath, England, he went on to Oxford University, graduating in 1978 with a degree in philosophy, politics and economics.

Chris then trained as a journalist, working in newspapers and radio, including two years producing a world news service in the Seychelles Islands.

Back in the UK in 1984, Chris was captivated by the personal computer revolution and became an editor at one of the UK's early computer magazines. A year later he founded Future Publishing with a $25,000 bank loan. The new company initially focused on specialist computer publications but eventually expanded into other areas such as cycling, music, video games, technology and design, doubling in size every year for seven years. In 1994, Chris moved to the United States where he built Imagine Media, publisher of Business 2.0 magazine and creator of the popular video game users website IGN. Chris eventually merged Imagine and Future, taking the combined entity public in London in 1999, under the Future name. At its peak, it published 150 magazines and websites and employed 2,000 people.

This success allowed Chris to create a private nonprofit organization, the Sapling Foundation, with the hope of finding new ways to tackle tough global issues through media, technology, entrepreneurship and, most of all, ideas. In 2001, the foundation acquired the TED Conference, then an annual meeting of luminaries in the fields of Technology, Entertainment and Design held in Monterey, California, and Chris left Future to work full time on TED.

He expanded the conference's remit to cover all topics, including science, business and key global issues, while adding a Fellows program, which now has some 300 alumni, and the TED Prize, which grants its recipients "one wish to change the world." The TED stage has become a place for thinkers and doers from all fields to share their ideas and their work, capturing imaginations, sparking conversation and encouraging discovery along the way.

In 2006, TED experimented with posting some of its talks on the Internet. Their viral success encouraged Chris to begin positioning the organization as a global media initiative devoted to 'ideas worth spreading,' part of a new era of information dissemination using the power of online video. In June 2015, the organization posted its 2,000th talk online. The talks are free to view, and they have been translated into more than 100 languages with the help of volunteers from around the world. Viewership has grown to approximately one billion views per year.

Continuing a strategy of 'radical openness,' in 2009 Chris introduced the TEDx initiative, allowing free licenses to local organizers who wished to organize their own TED-like events. More than 8,000 such events have been held, generating an archive of 60,000 TEDx talks. And three years later, the TED-Ed program was launched, offering free educational videos and tools to students and teachers.

More profile about the speaker
Chris Anderson | Speaker | TED.com

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