Liv Boeree: 3 lessons on decision-making from a poker champion
리브 보에르(Liv Boeree): 포커 챔피언이 말하는 의사결정에 관한 세 가지 교훈
Liv Boeree investigates how we make better decisions in an uncertain world. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
three things that the game has taught me
세 가지를 말씀드리려 합니다.
that I find apply to everyday life.
관련된 것들이죠.
is about luck.
a game of skill and luck,
기술과 행운이 필요하죠.
to the biggest things we care about --
on the quality of our decision-making,
의해서만 만들어지는 게 아니라
perfectly health-conscious
건강에 신경 써도
with something like cancer.
불행이 닥칠 수도 있습니다.
and live to a ripe old age,
오래 장수할 수도 있죠.
can make it hard for us to know
알기 어려울 때도 있습니다.
experiencing a lot of success.
경험할 때는 특히 그렇죠.
known as the European Poker Tour.
포커 시합에서 우승했습니다.
full-time for about a year,
1년 밖에 되지 않았을 때라
I must be rather brilliant.
제가 꽤 천채라고 생각했죠.
뛰어나다고 생각한 나머지
with studying the game,
게을러졌을 뿐만 아니라
the biggest tournaments I could
from a thing of beauty
저의 수익 도표가
downhill trend for a long time,
that I was overestimating my skill level,
과대평가했음을 깨닫고
of what we've been seeing
하나 기억나는 게 있는데요.
at least in 2017,
둘러싼 일들입니다.
faster than the markets themselves
더 빠르게 올라가고 있던 건
investment specialists"
'고급 투자 전문가들'의 숫자였어요.
to have a strategic edge,
불가능하다는 의미가 아닙니다.
it's very easy to feel like a genius
쉽다는 걸 말하는 거예요.
that's going up so fast
are making a profit.
이익을 낼 테니까요.
to really ask ourselves
자신에게서 비롯되었는지
갖는 게 중요합니다.
the luck factor when we're winning.
행운의 가능성을 무시하곤 하니까요.
of quantifying my thinking.
중요성입니다.
you can't just get away with going,
대충 넘어가면 안됩니다.
이러면서 말이죠.
a bunch of money,
of probabilities and precision,
to think in numbers.
스스로를 훈련시켜야 합니다.
막연한 생각이 들 때가 있죠.
really important, like,
what I want to say in my TED Talk,"
까먹지 말아야겠어."
추정하려고 노력하죠.
(웃음)
with the planning process.
정말 도움이 되거든요.
that could possibly happen here today,
as a probability, too.
in numbers as well.
말해보려 합니다.
to come along to that thing tonight?"
라고 말하는 것보다
"Yeah, probably,"
a little odd --
투표를 진행해봤는데요.
the word "probably" to mean,
어떻게 받아들이는지 몰었더니
이렇게나 폭 넓었습니다!
완전히 무용지물로 드러났죠.
any real information.
using these vague words,
자신들을 발견한다면
이런 단어 대신에 숫자로 말해보세요.
because when we speak in numbers,
in the other person's brain.
알 수가 있으니까요.
to touch on today is intuition.
바로 직감입니다.
these kinds of inspirational memes
인터넷에서 자주 접하시죠?
and never second-guess.]
직감은 틀린 적이 없으니까.]
"자기 자신을 믿어라."
poker players in the world right now.
포커 선수들입니다.
purely off feelings and intuitions?
사는 사람들처럼 보이나요?
are about slow, careful analysis,
신중한 분석가들입니다.
has outgrown the days
정상을 차지하던 시대와 다릅니다.
and people-reading
aren't nearly as perfect
완벽하지 않기 때문입니다.
whenever we're in a tough spot,
나타나면 얼마나 좋겠어요.
from some magical source of inspiration.
is extremely vulnerable
매우 취약합니다.
thinking and biases.
작용하기 때문이죠.
for everyday things
and lots of experience in,
that our friend is mad at us
친구가 화났는지 안다거나
into a tight parking spot.
있을지 안다거나..
더 낫나고 생각하는 거죠?
than slow, proper analysis?
any data to be based off.
하나도 없잖아요.
while we shouldn't ignore our intuitions,
우리 직감을 무시하지 말되
these three lessons today
그림을 보여드리며 마치겠습니다.
across a large sample size."
더 많은 표본수로 달성했을 때이다."
and so is a cost-benefit analysis.
가성비 분석도 마찬가지."
damn well try and estimate it."
예측하려고 노력할 수는 있다."
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Liv Boeree - Science communicator, games specialistLiv Boeree investigates how we make better decisions in an uncertain world.
Why you should listen
Liv Boeree is a science communicator and games specialist. A former professional poker player, she has won multiple championship titles on the international poker circuit and was the #1 ranked female player in 2016. Previously, she studied astrophysics and became fascinated with applying scientific thinking to everyday life. This introduced her to effective altruism: a philosophical movement that uses evidence and reason to identify and mitigate the world's most pressing problems. In 2014, she co-founded Raising for Effective Giving, a non-profit that fundraises for the most globally impactful charities and research organizations.
Liv Boeree | Speaker | TED.com