TED2018
Liv Boeree: 3 lessons on decision-making from a poker champion
麗芙．波莉: 撲克牌冠軍下決策的三點領悟
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幸運和順遂比較好嗎？面臨重大抉擇時應該要相信直覺，還是倚靠機率和謹慎的分析？在這個精簡的演說裡，專業撲克選手麗芙．波莉分享她從牌局中學到的三個方略，以及如何將它們運用到現實生活中。
Liv Boeree - Science communicator, games specialist
Liv Boeree investigates how we make better decisions in an uncertain world. Full bio
Liv Boeree investigates how we make better decisions in an uncertain world. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
So I'm a professional poker player,
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我是一個職業的撲克選手，
00:15
and today, I want to talk about
three things that the game has taught me
three things that the game has taught me
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今天我想要分享三件我從牌桌上學到
關於做決定，
00:20
around decision-making
that I find apply to everyday life.
that I find apply to everyday life.
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並且可以應用在日常生活中的事。
00:25
Now the first of these things
is about luck.
is about luck.
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第一件是運氣！
00:27
Now, like poker, life is also
a game of skill and luck,
a game of skill and luck,
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就像撲克牌，
人生也是一場
由技巧和運氣決定的牌局。
由技巧和運氣決定的牌局。
00:32
and when it comes
to the biggest things we care about --
to the biggest things we care about --
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當提到我們最關心的事項：
00:35
health, wealth and relationships --
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健康、財富和緣分時，
00:38
these outcomes don't only depend
on the quality of our decision-making,
on the quality of our decision-making,
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這些結果不只取決於
我們做抉擇的優劣，
我們做抉擇的優劣，
00:42
but also the roll of life's dice.
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還得聽憑命運骰子的滾翻。
00:43
For example, we can be
perfectly health-conscious
perfectly health-conscious
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舉例來說我們可以極致地注重養身，
00:46
and still get unlucky
with something like cancer.
with something like cancer.
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卻依然不幸罹患上癌症；
00:50
Or we can smoke 20 a day
and live to a ripe old age,
and live to a ripe old age,
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或一天抽上二十根香菸還頤享天年。
00:53
and this kind of ambiguity
can make it hard for us to know
can make it hard for us to know
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而這種說不準讓我們難以理解：
00:56
how good our strategies are, sometimes,
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我們的決策是好是壞，
00:59
especially when we're
experiencing a lot of success.
experiencing a lot of success.
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特別是我們獲得許多成功時。
01:03
For example, back in 2010,
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例如時間拉回西元 2010 年，
01:04
I won a really big poker tournament
known as the European Poker Tour.
known as the European Poker Tour.
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我贏得了確實盛大的撲克牌錦標賽－
歐洲撲克大賽的冠軍。
歐洲撲克大賽的冠軍。
01:08
And because I'd only been playing
full-time for about a year,
full-time for about a year,
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因為當時才剛打職業賽一年左右，
01:12
when I won, I assumed
I must be rather brilliant.
I must be rather brilliant.
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勝出時我自以為必定相當聰明。
01:16
In fact, I thought I was so brilliant
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事實上當我認為自己很聰明...
01:17
that I not only got rather lazy
with studying the game,
with studying the game,
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我不只更偷懶不去研究牌局，
01:21
but I also got more risky,
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也開始變得貪險，
01:23
started playing in
the biggest tournaments I could
the biggest tournaments I could
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開始盡量參加全世界最大的巡迴賽，
01:26
against the very best in the world.
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對壘世上最強的高手！
01:28
And then my profit graph went
from a thing of beauty
from a thing of beauty
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然後我的獎金折線圖從峰頂
01:32
to something kind of sad,
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掉到悲慘的谷底...
01:34
with this worrying
downhill trend for a long time,
downhill trend for a long time,
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且持續了這低潮走向好長一段時間，
01:37
until I finally realized
that I was overestimating my skill level,
that I was overestimating my skill level,
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直到我終究醒悟過來
我高估了自己的牌技，
我高估了自己的牌技，
01:40
and got my act together.
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才找回自己！
01:42
And this kind of reminds me
of what we've been seeing
of what we've been seeing
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而這有些令我想起
起碼 2017 年時虛擬貨幣市場的天地；
01:45
in the cryptocurrency space,
at least in 2017,
at least in 2017,
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01:47
where the only thing that's been going up
faster than the markets themselves
faster than the markets themselves
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唯一比市場本身成長得更快更多的
01:51
is the number of "senior
investment specialists"
investment specialists"
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是無處不斷冒出
「資深投資專家」的數量。
「資深投資專家」的數量。
01:53
who have been appearing out of nowhere.
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01:56
Now I'm not saying it's not possible
to have a strategic edge,
to have a strategic edge,
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我並不是說不可能擁有策略優勢，
01:59
but at the same time,
it's very easy to feel like a genius
it's very easy to feel like a genius
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值此時當你正處於快速成長的市場，
02:02
when you're in a market
that's going up so fast
that's going up so fast
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你很容易以為自己是個天才，
02:04
that even the worst strategies
are making a profit.
are making a profit.
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即便最草包的策略也有錢賺！
02:07
So when we're experiencing success,
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所以說在我們成功當下
02:09
it's important to take a moment
to really ask ourselves
to really ask ourselves
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花些時間好好問自己，
02:12
how much of it is truly down to us,
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到底有多少歸功於自己是重要的事；
02:15
because our egos love to downplay
the luck factor when we're winning.
the luck factor when we're winning.
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因為我們的自大特愛在
贏的氛圍中看扁運氣因素。
贏的氛圍中看扁運氣因素。
02:21
Now, a second thing poker taught me
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撲克牌教我的第二件事
02:23
is the importance
of quantifying my thinking.
of quantifying my thinking.
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是數量性思考的重要性！
02:26
When you're playing,
you can't just get away with going,
you can't just get away with going,
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當你在玩牌時你不能只想著：
02:29
"Eh, they're probably bluffing."
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他們應該只是在唬人，
02:31
That's just going to lose you
a bunch of money,
a bunch of money,
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這將會讓你輸一大筆錢！
02:33
because poker is a game
of probabilities and precision,
of probabilities and precision,
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因為撲克牌是機率與精準性的賽事，
02:36
and so you have to train yourself
to think in numbers.
to think in numbers.
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所以你必須訓練你自己用數字做思考；
02:40
So now, whenever I catch myself
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所以現在無論何時我逮到自己
02:42
thinking vaguely about something
really important, like,
really important, like,
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不確切地對大事情做思考
例如：「我太可能會忘記
我要在 TED 演講的內容。」
我要在 TED 演講的內容。」
02:46
"It's unlikely I'll forget
what I want to say in my TED Talk,"
what I want to say in my TED Talk,"
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02:49
I now try to estimate it numerically.
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我現在嘗試用數字來評估它。
02:52
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
02:53
Trust me, it helps a lot
with the planning process.
with the planning process.
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相信我！伴隨做規劃時這點幫助很大，
02:56
And the thing is, almost anything
that could possibly happen here today,
that could possibly happen here today,
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而且幾乎所有
今天在這裡可能發生的事－
今天在這裡可能發生的事－
或者是未來某個時間點－
02:59
or at any point in the future,
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03:01
can also be expressed
as a probability, too.
as a probability, too.
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也都可以表示成機率。
03:04
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
03:07
So now I also try to speak
in numbers as well.
in numbers as well.
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所以我現在也要嘗試用數字說話，
03:10
So if someone asks me,
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如果有人問我：
03:11
"Hey, Liv, do you think you're going
to come along to that thing tonight?"
to come along to that thing tonight?"
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莉芙你有在想今晚會過來露個臉嗎？
03:15
instead of just saying to them,
"Yeah, probably,"
"Yeah, probably,"
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一反只跟他們說：大概吧！
03:17
I actually give them my best estimate --
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我真實地給他們我最佳估計，
03:19
say, 60 percent.
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像說 60% 吧！
03:21
Because -- I know that sounds
a little odd --
a little odd --
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我知道那聽起來有點怪，
03:23
but the thing is, I ran a poll on Twitter
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但是我在推特上做了個民調－
03:26
of what people understand
the word "probably" to mean,
the word "probably" to mean,
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問大家對「大概」的意思理解為何－
而這是答案的分布－
03:29
and this was the spread of answers.
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南轅北轍！
03:30
Enormous!
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所以很顯然地這個字完全
沒辦法傳達任何真實的資訊。
沒辦法傳達任何真實的資訊。
03:32
So apparently, it's absolutely useless
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03:33
at actually conveying
any real information.
any real information.
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03:36
So if you guys catch yourselves
using these vague words,
using these vague words,
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所以如果你們逮到自己
在用這些不確切的字眼，
在用這些不確切的字眼，
03:40
like "probably" or "sometimes,"
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像是「大概」或是「有時候」等，
03:43
try, instead, using numbers,
because when we speak in numbers,
because when we speak in numbers,
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試著換成數字；
因為當我們用數字說事情，
03:46
we know what lands
in the other person's brain.
in the other person's brain.
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我們知道對方的腦袋裡聽進去甚麼。
03:50
Now, the third thing I want
to touch on today is intuition.
to touch on today is intuition.
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現在我想淺談的第三件事是直覺！
03:55
How often have you seen
these kinds of inspirational memes
these kinds of inspirational memes
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你們有多常在臉書動態上
看到這種開導型網路瘋傳的字圖檔？
03:58
in your Facebook feed?
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04:01
[Always trust your gut feeling
and never second-guess.]
and never second-guess.]
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【永遠相信你的直覺並且不要多想 】
04:03
They're nice, right?
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它們很棒對吧？
04:05
It's lovely. Yes. "Trust your soul."
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沒錯當然很棒...信任你的心靈！
04:09
Well, they're terrible advice.
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它們是垃圾建議！
04:11
These are some of the best
poker players in the world right now.
poker players in the world right now.
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這些是部分當今世上
最頂尖的撲克牌玩家，
最頂尖的撲克牌玩家，
04:14
Do they look like people who live
purely off feelings and intuitions?
purely off feelings and intuitions?
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他們看上去像單純用感知
和直覺生活的人嗎？
和直覺生活的人嗎？
04:19
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
04:20
Look at them!
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看看他們！
04:21
Obviously, these guys
are about slow, careful analysis,
are about slow, careful analysis,
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很顯然他們慢條斯理、縝密分析，
04:26
and that's because the game
has outgrown the days
has outgrown the days
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這是因為本賽事已經遠超
04:29
where pure street smarts
and people-reading
and people-reading
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單憑機靈和讀心術
04:32
can get you to the top.
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就可以把你擺上頂峰；
04:33
And that's because our intuitions
aren't nearly as perfect
aren't nearly as perfect
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因為我們的直覺
並不如我們自以為的那般無懈可擊，
04:37
as we'd like to believe.
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04:38
I mean, it'd be great,
whenever we're in a tough spot,
whenever we're in a tough spot,
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我的意思是當我們陷入困境時，
04:41
to just have an answer appear to us
from some magical source of inspiration.
from some magical source of inspiration.
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有個答案來自神奇源頭的啟發
一閃而出太棒了。
一閃而出太棒了。
04:45
But in reality, our gut
is extremely vulnerable
is extremely vulnerable
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但是實際上我們的直覺
碰上種種一廂情願和偏見
是大打折扣的。
是大打折扣的。
04:48
to all kinds of wishful
thinking and biases.
thinking and biases.
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04:52
So then, what is our gut good for?
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那麼我們的直覺好用在那兒呢？
04:55
Well, all the studies I've read
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在我看過的所有研究
04:57
conclude that it's best-suited
for everyday things
for everyday things
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歸結直覺最合乎日常事項－
我們有數不完之經驗的事情，
05:01
that we have lots
and lots of experience in,
and lots of experience in,
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05:03
like how we just know
that our friend is mad at us
that our friend is mad at us
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像是我們在和朋友說上話之前
05:06
before we've even said anything to them,
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如何知道他正對自己生氣；
05:08
or whether we can fit our car
into a tight parking spot.
into a tight parking spot.
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或是可不可以把我們的車
停進狹窄的車位。
停進狹窄的車位。
05:11
But when it comes to the really big stuff,
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但是輪到真正的大事...
05:13
like what's our career path going to be
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像是我們的職涯發展是怎樣的光景？
05:16
or who should we marry,
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或是該跟誰結婚？
05:17
why should we assume that our intuitions
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為什麼我們要當真以為我們的直覺
05:21
are better calibrated for these
than slow, proper analysis?
than slow, proper analysis?
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比慢速、適當的分析校準地更好？
05:25
I mean, they don't have
any data to be based off.
any data to be based off.
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我是說這些東西並沒有任何數據歸依！
05:28
So my third lesson is,
while we shouldn't ignore our intuitions,
while we shouldn't ignore our intuitions,
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所以我的第三個教訓是
當我們不應忽視直覺的同時，
當我們不應忽視直覺的同時，
05:32
we shouldn't overprivilege them either.
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我們也不能太尊仰它們！
05:34
And I'd like to summarize
these three lessons today
these three lessons today
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我想要用我自己套路網路瘋傳的
字圖檔總結這三個教訓，
字圖檔總結這三個教訓，
05:37
with my own set of memes,
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05:38
with more of a poker-player twist.
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帶有一個撲克牌玩家的轉折！
05:41
"Success is sweetest when you achieve it
across a large sample size."
across a large sample size."
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「成功是最甜美的－
當你穿越浩大的樣本數時！」
當你穿越浩大的樣本數時！」
05:46
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
05:47
"Your gut is your friend
and so is a cost-benefit analysis.
and so is a cost-benefit analysis.
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「你的直覺是益友－
成本效益分析也是！」
成本效益分析也是！」
05:52
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
05:53
"The future is unknown, but you can
damn well try and estimate it."
damn well try and estimate it."
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「將來是未知的－
但你可以放手幹以及估算它！」
但你可以放手幹以及估算它！」
05:58
Thank you.
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謝謝。
05:59
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Liv Boeree - Science communicator, games specialistLiv Boeree investigates how we make better decisions in an uncertain world.
Why you should listen
Liv Boeree is a science communicator and games specialist. A former professional poker player, she has won multiple championship titles on the international poker circuit and was the #1 ranked female player in 2016. Previously, she studied astrophysics and became fascinated with applying scientific thinking to everyday life. This introduced her to effective altruism: a philosophical movement that uses evidence and reason to identify and mitigate the world's most pressing problems. In 2014, she co-founded Raising for Effective Giving, a non-profit that fundraises for the most globally impactful charities and research organizations.
Liv Boeree | Speaker | TED.com