TEDSalon NY2011
Shlomo Benartzi: Saving for tomorrow, tomorrow
Shlomo Benartzi: Te kursejme per te nesermen, neser
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Eshte e lehte te imagjinosh per te kursyer para javen qe vjen, por si i behet tani? Ne pergjithesi ne duam t'i shpenzojme ato. Ekonomisti Shlomo Benrtzi thote qe kjo eshte nje nga pengesat me te medha per te kursyer aq sa per pension, dhe pyet: Si do ta shendrrojme kete sfide te sjelljes ne nje zgjidhje te sjelljes?
Shlomo Benartzi - Economist
Shlomo Benartzi uses behavioral economics to study how and why we plan well for the future (or fail to), and uses that to develop new programs to encourage saving for retirement. Full bio
Shlomo Benartzi uses behavioral economics to study how and why we plan well for the future (or fail to), and uses that to develop new programs to encourage saving for retirement. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
I'm going to talk today about saving more,
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Une do te flase sot per te kursyer me shume,
00:18
but not today, tomorrow.
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por jo sot, neser.
00:21
I'm going to talk about Save More Tomorrow.
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Une do te flas per Te Kursejme Me Shume Neser.
00:23
It's a program that Richard Thaler
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Eshte programi qe Richard Thaler
00:25
from the University of Chicago and I
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nga Universiteti i Çikagos dhe une
00:27
devised maybe 15 years ago.
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qe e kemi shpikur ndoshta 15 vjet me pare.
00:30
The program, in a sense,
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Ky program, nje nje menyre,
00:32
is an example of behavioral finance
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eshte nje shembull i sjelljes financiare
00:34
on steroids --
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ne steroide --
00:36
how we could really use behavioral finance.
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se si ne vertet mundemi te perdorim sjelljen financiare.
00:39
Now you might ask, what is behavioral finance?
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Tani ju mund te pyesni, cfare eshte sjellje financiare?
00:42
So let's think about how we manage our money.
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Le te mendojme rreth asaj se si ne i menaxhojme parate tona.
00:45
Let's start with mortgages.
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Le te fillojme me garancite hipotekore.
00:48
It's kind of a recent topic,
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Eshte ceshtje e kohes se fundit,
00:50
at least in the U.S.
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te pakten ne Amerike.
00:52
A lot of people buy
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Shumica e njerezve blejne
00:54
the biggest house they can afford,
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shtepine me te madhe qe mund te blene,
00:57
and actually slightly bigger than that.
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dhe faktikisht pak me te madhe se ajo.
01:00
And then they foreclose.
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Dhe me pas ata i heqin të drejtën mbi pronën e vënë në hipotekë
01:03
And then they blame the banks
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Dhe me pas ata fajesojne bankat
01:05
for being the bad guys who gave them the mortgages.
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qe s'jane te mira duke i dhene atyre hipoteken.
01:08
Let's also think about
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Le te mendojme
01:10
how we manage risks --
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si te menaxhojme riskun --
01:12
for example, investing in the stock market.
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p.sh, duke investuar ne tregun e aksioneve.
01:14
Two years ago, three years ago, about four years ago,
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Dy vjet me pare, tre vjet me pare, rreth pese vjet me perpara,
01:17
markets did well.
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tregjet ishin mire,
01:19
We were risk takers, of course.
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Ne morem persiper riskun, sigurisht.
01:22
Then market stocks seize
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Tregu aksione pati nje renie
01:24
and we're like, "Wow.
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dhe ne mendian "Wow.
01:26
These losses, they feel, emotionally,
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Keto humbje, ata i ndjene, emocionalisht,
01:29
they feel very different
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ndihen shume ndryshe
01:32
from what we actually thought about it
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nga cfare ne menduam rreth kesaj
01:35
when markets were going up."
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kur tregjet po ngriheshin."
01:37
So we're probably not doing a great job
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Keshtu qe ne me sa duhet nuk po benin ndonje pune te padhe
01:40
when it comes to risk taking.
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kur vjen puna per te marre persiper rrezikun.
01:42
How many of you have iPhones?
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Sa Iphone keni ?
01:45
Anyone? Wonderful.
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Ndonjeri? Shume mire.
01:48
I would bet many more of you
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Une ve bast qe shumica nga ju
01:51
insure your iPhone --
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siguroni telefonin tuaj --
01:54
you're implicitly buying insurance by having an extended warranty.
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ju pa dyshim blini sigurimin duke pasur nje garanci te zgjatur.
01:57
What if you lose your iPhone?
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Cfare ndodh nese ju humbet telefoni ?
01:59
What if you do this?
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N.q.s ju beni kete?
02:01
How many of you have kids?
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Sa nga ju keni femije?
02:03
Anyone?
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Ndonjeri?
02:05
Keep your hands up
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Mbani duart lart
02:07
if you have sufficient life insurance.
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n.q.s keni sihurimin e jetes te mjaftueshem.
02:10
I see a lot of hands coming down.
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Uen po shof shume duar qe ulen poshte.
02:12
I would predict,
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Une do te parashikoja,
02:14
if you're a representative sample,
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nqs se ti je perfaqesues per shembull,
02:16
that many more of you
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qe me shume se ju
02:18
insure your iPhones than your lives,
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sigurojne Iphonet sesa jeten tuaj,
02:21
even when you have kids.
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madje edhe kur keni femije.
02:23
We're not doing that well when it comes to insurance.
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Ne nuk po dukemi dhe aq mire kur vjen puna tek siguracioni.
02:26
The average American household
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Mesatarja Amrikane e nje familje
02:30
spends 1,000 dollars a year
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shpenzon 1,000 dollare ne vit
02:33
on lotteries.
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per llotari.
02:35
And I know it sounds crazy.
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Dhe e di qe eshte cmenduri.
02:38
How many of you spend a thousand dollars a year on lotteries?
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Sa nga shpenzojne mijra dollare ne vit per llotarira?
02:41
No one.
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Asnjeri.
02:43
So that tells us that the people not in this room
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Kjo na tregon ne qe njerzit jo ne kete ambjent
02:46
are spending more than a thousand
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shpenzojne me shume se nje mije
02:48
to get the average to a thousand.
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per te arritur tek mesatarja e nje mijes.
02:51
Low-income people
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Njerzit me te ardhura te vogla
02:53
spend a lot more than a thousand on lotteries.
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shpenzojne shume me shume se nje mije neper llotarira.
02:57
So where does it take us?
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Pra ku do te na coje kjo >
02:59
We're not doing a great job managing money.
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Ne nuk po bejme ndonjepune te madhe me menaxhimin e lekut.
03:02
Behavioral finance is really a combination
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Vendimet financiar eshte me te vertet nje kombinim
03:05
of psychology and economics,
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i psikologjise dhe ekonomikut,
03:07
trying to understand
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te arrish te kuptosh
03:09
the money mistakes people make.
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gabimet qe njerzit bejne me parane.
03:11
And I can keep standing here
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Dhe do te qendroj ketu
03:13
for the 12 minutes and 53 seconds that I have left
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per 12 minuta dhe 53 sekonda qe me kane mbetur
03:17
and make fun of all sorts of ways
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dhe te argetohetm me te gjitha menyrat e zgjedhjet
03:19
we manage money,
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per menagimin e parase,
03:21
and at the end you're going to ask, "How can we help people?"
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dhe ne fund ju do te me pyesni, " Si mund te ndihmojme njerzit?"
03:24
And that's what I really want to focus on today.
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Dhe kjo eshte me te vertet ajo qe dua te fokusohem sot.
03:27
How do we take an understanding
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Si mund kemi nje kuptim
03:29
of the money mistakes people make,
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te gabimeve qe njerzit bejne me parane,
03:32
and then turning the behavioral challenges
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dhe pastaj te kthejme sjelljet sfiduese
03:35
into behavioral solutions?
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ne ate sjellje te zgjidhshme?
03:37
And what I'm going to talk about today
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Dhe une do te flas sot rreth
03:39
is Save More Tomorrow.
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programin Te Kursejme Me Shume Neser.
03:41
I want to address the issue
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Dua ta drejtoj kete ceshtje
03:43
of savings.
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tek kursimet.
03:45
We have on the screen
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Ne kemi ne monitor
03:47
a representative sample
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nje shembull tipik
03:49
of 100 Americans.
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te 100 Amrikaneve.
03:51
And we're going to look at their saving behavior.
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Dhe ne do te shikojme sjelljen e ketyre kursimeve.
03:54
First thing to notice is,
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E para qe veme re eshte ,
03:56
half of them
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qe gjysma e tyre
03:58
do not even have access
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nuk kane te drejte
04:00
to a 401(k) plan.
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ne nje plan 401(k).
04:02
They cannot make savings easy.
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Ata nuk mund te kursejne kaq lehte.
04:05
They cannot have money go away from their paycheck
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Ata nuk mund te lene t'ju ikin leket nga rroga
04:08
into a 401(k) plan
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tek nje plan 401(k)
04:10
before they see it,
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perpara se ta shohin ate,
04:12
before they can touch it.
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perpara se ta prekin ate.
04:14
What about the remaining half of the people?
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Po me gysmen tjeter te njerzve qe ngelen?
04:17
Some of them elect not to save.
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Disa nga ata vendosin te mos kursejne.
04:20
They're just too lazy.
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Ata jane shume pertace.
04:22
They never get around to logging into a complicated website
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Ata asnjehere nuk do te logohen ne nje uebsait te komplikuar
04:25
and doing 17 clicks to join the 401(k) plan.
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dhe te klikojne 17 here per t'ju bashkuar planit 401(k) .
04:28
And then they have to decide how they're going to invest
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Dhe me pas ata duhet te vendosin se si do ti investojne
04:30
in their 52 choices,
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ne 52 mundesite e tyre,
04:32
and they never heard about what is a money market fund.
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dhe ata kurre nuk e kane degjuar cfare eshte nje depozite tregu.
04:36
And they get overwhelmed and the just don't join.
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Dhe ata jane te mbingarukuar dhe ata thjesht nuk e bejene kete.
04:38
How many people end up saving to a 401(k) plan?
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Sa njerez i shkojne deri ne fund planit 401(k) ?
04:43
One third of Americans.
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Nje e treta e Amerikaneve.
04:46
Two thirds are not saving now.
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Dy te tretat nuk kursejne sot .
04:48
Are they saving enough?
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A arrijne te kursejne boll?
04:50
Take out those
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Merreni me mend
04:52
who say they save too little.
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kush thote qe ata po kursejne shume pak.
04:54
One out of 10
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Nje nga te 10-tet
04:56
are saving enough.
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a jane duke kursyer mjaft.
04:59
Nine out of 10
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9-te nga 10
05:01
either cannot save through their 401(k) plan,
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per me teper kursen permes planin te yre 401(k),
05:04
decide not to save -- or don't decide --
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vendosin te mos kursejne-- ose nuk vendosin --
05:07
or save too little.
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ose kursejne shume pak.
05:10
We think we have a problem
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Ne mendojme se kemi nje problem
05:12
of people saving too much.
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te njerzve qe kursejne shume.
05:14
Let's look at that.
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Le te shikojme kete.
05:16
We have one person --
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Ne kemi nje person --
05:18
well, actually we're going to slice him in half
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ok , ne do ta ndajme ate ne gjysem
05:21
because it's less than one percent.
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sepse eshte me pak se nje percend.
05:24
Roughly half a percent of Americans
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Perafersisht gjysma perqind e Amerikaneve
05:27
feel that they save too much.
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ndjejne qe ata kursejne shume.
05:32
What are we going to do about it?
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Cfare do te bejme rreth kesaj ?
05:34
That's what I really want to focus on.
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Kjo eshte vertete aty ku dua te fokusohem.
05:36
We have to understand
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Ne duhet te kutojme
05:38
why people are not saving,
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perse njerzit nuk po kursejne,
05:40
and then we can hopefully flip
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dhe pastaj ne fatmirsisht te ndyshojme
05:42
the behavioral challenges
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sjelljen dhe sfidat
05:44
into behavioral solutions,
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ne nje zgjidhje te sjellure,
05:46
and then see how powerful it might be.
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dhe me pas te shohim se sa e forte mund te jete.
05:49
So let me divert for a second
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Me lejoni te transferoje per nje sekonde
05:51
as we're going to identify the problems,
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sikurse do te gjenim problemet
05:53
the challenges, the behavioral challenges,
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sfidat, sfidat e sjelljes,
05:56
that prevent people from saving.
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keto i ndalojne njerzit te kursejne.
05:58
I'm going to divert and talk about bananas and chocolate.
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Une do te tranferoje dhe te flas rreth bananeve dhe cokollata.
06:02
Suppose we had another wonderful TED event next week.
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Te supzojme se ne bejme nje event tjeter te TED-it javen qe vjen.
06:05
And during the break
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Dhe gjate pushimit
06:07
there would be a snack
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do te kishte ndonje sanduic
06:09
and you could choose bananas or chocolate.
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dhe qe mu d te zgjidhni bananet ose cokollatat.
06:11
How many of you think you would like to have bananas
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Dhe sa nga ju do te mendonit sikur te kishit bananet
06:14
during this hypothetical TED event next week?
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gjate ketij eventi hippotetik te TEd-it javen qe vjen?
06:16
Who would go for bananas?
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Kush do te gjidhte bananet?
06:18
Wonderful.
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E mrekullueshme.
06:20
I predict scientifically
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Une parashikoj shkencerisht
06:22
74 percent of you will go for bananas.
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74% nga ju do te zgjidhte bananet.
06:25
Well that's at least what one wonderful study predicted.
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Dhe kjo eshte te pakten ajo qe nje nga studimet e mrekullueshme kane parashikuar.
06:30
And then count down the days
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Dhe pastaj te numurojne ditet
06:33
and see what people ended up eating.
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dhe te shohin cfare njerzit kane mbaruar se ngreni.
06:38
The same people that imagined themselves
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Te njejtit njerz qe e imagjinuar vehten e tyre
06:41
eating the bananas
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duke ngrene banane
06:43
ended up eating chocolates
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mbaruan duke ngrene cokollata
06:45
a week later.
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nje jave me vone.
06:47
Self-control
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Vet-kontrolli
06:49
is not a problem in the future.
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nuk eshte nje problem per te arshmen.
06:52
It's only a problem now
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Eshte vetem problem tani
06:54
when the chocolate is next to us.
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kur cokollata eshte mbs nesh .
06:58
What does it have to do with time and savings,
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Cfare duhet te kete per te bere me kohen dhe kursimet,
07:01
this issue of immediate gratification?
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kjo c'eshtje e plotesimit te menjehershem?
07:04
Or as some economists call it, present bias.
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Ose disa ekonomiste e quajne ate, paragjykim i tanishem.
07:08
We think about saving. We know we should be saving.
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Ne mendojme rreth kursimeve. Ne e dime qe duhet te kursejme.
07:10
We know we'll do it next year, but today let us go and spend.
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Ne e dime qe ne do ta bejme ate vitin tjeter, por sot lete te harxhojme.
07:13
Christmas is coming,
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Krishtlindjet jane duke afruar,
07:15
we might as well buy a lot of gifts for everyone we know.
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ne mund shume mire te bleme shume dhurata per kedo qe njohim.
07:18
So this issue of present bias
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keshtu qe kjo c'eshtje e paragykimit tone
07:22
causes us to think about saving,
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shkakton tek ne per te menduar per kursimet,
07:24
but end up spending.
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dhe perfundon duke i prishur ato
07:26
Let me now talk
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Le te flasim tani
07:28
about another behavioral obstacle to saving
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rreth nje jeter pengese ne sjellje per kusimet
07:30
having to do with inertia.
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duke pasur te beje me nje inertesi.
07:32
But again, a little diversion
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Por perseri, nje deviim i vogel
07:34
to the topic of organ donation.
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per c'eshtjen e dhurimit te organeve.
07:37
Wonderful study comparing different countries.
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Nje studim i mrekullueshem duke krakasur vende te ndryshme.
07:40
We're going to look at two similar countries,
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Do te shikojme dy qytete te ngjashme,
07:43
Germany and Austria.
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Gjermania dhe Austria.
07:46
And in Germany,
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Dhe ne Gjermani,
07:48
if you would like to donate your organs --
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nqs se ti do te dhurosh oraganet e tua --
07:50
God forbid something really bad
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Zoti te falte eshte dicka e keqe
07:52
happens to you --
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do te ndodhi ty --
07:54
when you get your driving license or an I.D.,
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kur mer patenten ose karten e identitetit.,
07:57
you check the box saying,
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ti kontrollon kutine e kursimeve,
07:59
"I would like to donate my organs."
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"Une dua te dhuroj organet e mia."
08:01
Not many people like checking boxes.
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Jo shume njerez i pleqejne listat.
08:03
It takes effort. You need to think.
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Kerkon perpjekje. te duhet te mendohesh.
08:05
Twelve percent do.
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12 % e bejne kete.
08:08
Austria, a neighboring country,
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Austria, nje shtet fqinj,
08:11
slightly similar, slightly different.
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lehtesisht te ngashem, pak te ndryshem.
08:13
What's the difference?
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Kush eshte ndryshimi?
08:15
Well, you still have choice.
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e pra, ju prape keni nje zgedhje.
08:17
You will decide
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Ti do te vendosesh
08:19
whether you want to donate your organs or not.
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nese do ti dhurosh organet apo jo.
08:22
But when you get your driving license,
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Por kur ti merr patenten,
08:24
you check the box
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ti shenon tel lista
08:26
if you do not want to donate your organ.
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nqs ti nuk do qe ti dhurosh organet.
08:30
Nobody checks boxes.
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Asnjeri nuk i shenon tek lista.
08:32
That's kind of too much effort.
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Ky eshte nje lloj stermundimi i madh.
08:34
One percent check the box. The rest do nothing.
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1% e njerzve e shenojne ate. Te tjeret nuk bejne asgje.
08:37
Doing nothing is very common.
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Per te mos bere asgje eshte shume e lehte.
08:39
Not many people check boxes.
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Jo shume njerzez i shenojne kutite e vogla te mundesive.
08:42
What are the implications
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Cfare jane keto perpjekje
08:44
to saving lives
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per te shptuar jete
08:46
and having organs available?
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dhe te kesh disa oragane ne gjendje?
08:49
In Germany, 12 percent check the box.
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Ne Gjermani, 12% e zgjedhin kete gje.
08:51
Twelve percent are organ donors.
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12% jane organe te dhuruara.
08:54
Huge shortage of organs,
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Shume sasi e paket e organeve,
08:56
God forbid, if you need one.
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Zoti i perjashton, nws te duhet nje.
08:58
In Austria, again, nobody checks the box.
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Ne Austri, perseri, asnjeri nuk e shenon tek lista.
09:01
Therefore, 99 percent of people
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Prandaj, 99% e njerzve
09:04
are organ donors.
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jane organe te dhuruara.
09:06
Inertia, lack of action.
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Kjo amulli, munges e veprimit.
09:08
What is the default setting
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Kush eshte kundravajtja
09:10
if people do nothing,
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nqs se njerzit bejne dicka,
09:12
if they keep procrastinating, if they don't check the boxes?
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nqs se ata i vonojne, nqs nuk i bejne nje zgjadhje tek lista?
09:15
Very powerful.
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Shume e fuqishme.
09:17
We're going to talk
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Ne do te flasim
09:19
about what happens if people are overwhelmed and scared
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rreth asaj qe cfare ndodh nqs se njerzit jane te mbingarkuar dhe te friksuar
09:23
to make their 401(k) choices.
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per te bere zgjedhjet e planit 401(k).
09:26
Are we going to make them automatically join the plan,
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Ne do ti bejme ato ne menyre automatike per t'ju bashkuar planit,
09:29
or are they going to be left out?
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ose ata do te lihen jashte >
09:31
In too many 401(k) plans,
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Ne disa raste te planit 401(k),
09:34
if people do nothing,
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nqs njerzit nuk bejne asgje,
09:36
it means they're not saving for retirement,
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kjo do te thote qe ata nuk po kursejne per pension,
09:39
if they don't check the box.
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nws se ata nuk e bejne zgjedhjen tek kutia.
09:41
And checking the box takes effort.
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Dhe te shenonsh tek kutia kerkon perpjekje.
09:44
So we've chatted about a couple of behavioral challenges.
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Keshtu qe ne folem rreth disa sfida e sjelljes.
09:47
One more before we flip the challenges into solutions,
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Edhe njehere para se te kthejme sfidat ne zgjidhje,
09:50
having to do with monkeys and apples.
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duke pasur te bejme me majmune dhe molle..
09:52
No, no, no, this is a real study
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Jo, jo, jo, ky eshte nje sudim i vertete
09:54
and it's got a lot to do with behavioral economics.
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dhe ka te beje shume me sjelljen ekonomike.
09:58
One group of monkeys gets an apple, they're pretty happy.
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Nje grup majmunesh marrin e molle, ata jane shume te gezuar.
10:01
The other group gets two apples, one is taken away.
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Grupi tjeter marrin dy molle, njera i merret.
10:03
They still have an apple left.
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Atyre ju ka mbetur edhe nje.
10:05
They're really mad.
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Ata jane me te verte te inatosur.
10:08
Why have you taken our apple?
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Pse na i morret mollen tone?
10:11
This is the notion of loss aversion.
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Ky eshte enocioni i humbjes se mospelqimit.
10:14
We hate losing stuff,
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Ne merzitemi kur na humbin gjerat,
10:16
even if it doesn't mean a lot of risk.
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edhe pse madje nuk ka shume rrezik.
10:19
You would hate to go to the ATM,
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Do te uuroje te shkojet te ATM,
10:22
take out 100 dollars
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dhe te terheqesh 100 dollare
10:24
and notice that you lost one of those $20 bills.
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dhe ve re qe ti ke humbur nje nga keto biletat 20 dollareshe.
10:26
It's very painful,
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Eshte shume e dhimbshme,
10:28
even though it doesn't mean anything.
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megjithse, nuk do te thote gje.
10:30
Those 20 dollars might have been a quick lunch.
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Keto 20 dollaremund te ishin nje dreke e shpejte.
10:34
So this notion of loss aversion
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Pra ky nocion i mospeqimit
10:38
kicks in when it comes to savings too,
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duket sikur te shkelmon kur vjen puna edhe per kursimet,
10:41
because people, mentally
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sepse njerzit , menderisht
10:43
and emotionally and intuitively
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dhe emocionalisht dhe intuitivisht
10:46
frame savings as a loss
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forme e kursimit si nje humbje
10:48
because I have to cut my spending.
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sepse mua me duhet te mos prishe leke.
10:51
So we talked about
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Keshtu qe ne folem rreth
10:53
all sorts of behavioral challenges
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te gjitha llojete sfidave te sjelljes
10:55
having to do with savings eventually.
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qe kane te bjene me kursimit eventualisht.
10:59
Whether you think about immediate gratification,
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Kurdo qe ti mendon rreth pelqimi te domosdoshem,
11:02
and the chocolates versus bananas,
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dhe cokollatat ndryshe babanet,
11:05
it's just painful to save now.
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jane te dhimbshme per ti kursyer tani.
11:08
It's a lot more fun
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Eshte me shume nje loje
11:10
to spend now.
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per te prishur leke tani.
11:12
We talked about inertia and organ donations
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Ne folem rreth inertesise dhe dhurimit te oraganeve
11:15
and checking the box.
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dhe lista per tu plotesuar.
11:17
If people have to check a lot of boxes
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Nws se njerzit kane per she mbushur shume lista
11:19
to join a 401(k) plan,
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per tu fuur ne planin(401k),
11:21
they're going to keep procrastinating
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ata do te vazhdojne te mbajne te vonuar
11:23
and not join.
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dhe te mos bashkohet.
11:25
And last, we talked about loss aversion,
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Ne fund, ne folem per humbjen e mospelqimit,
11:27
and the monkeys and the apples.
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dhe per majmunet dhe mollet.
11:29
If people frame mentally
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Nqs se njerzit coptohen menderisht
11:32
saving for retirement as a loss,
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per te kursyer per pensionin si nje humbje,
11:35
they're not going to be saving for retirement.
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ata nuk do te kursejne per pensionin.
11:38
So we've got these challenges,
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Keshtu, qe kemi keto sfida,
11:40
and what Richard Thaler and I
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dhe cfare Richard Thaler dhe une
11:42
were always fascinated by --
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jemi gjithmone te mrekulluar nga --
11:44
take behavioral finance,
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marrja e sjelljes financiare,
11:46
make it behavioral finance on steroids
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suke e bere sjelljen financiare mbi steroidet
11:48
or behavioral finance 2.0
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ose sjelljes financiare 2.0
11:50
or behavioral finance in action --
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ose sjelljes financiare ne veprim --
11:52
flip the challenges into solutions.
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te ktheje sfidat ne zgjdhje.
11:56
And we came up with an embarrassingly simple solution
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Dhe ne erdhem me nje ne zgjidhje jashtezakonisht te thjeshte
11:59
called Save More, not today, Tomorrow.
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e quajtur Kurse Shume, jo sot, Neser.
12:03
How is it going to solve the challenges
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Si do ti zgjidhe sfidat
12:05
we chatted about?
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qe ne folem rreth?
12:07
If you think about the problem
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Nqs mendon rreth problemit
12:09
of bananas versus chocolates,
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te bananeve kunder cokollatave,
12:11
we think we're going to eat bananas next week.
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ne mendojme se do shkojne te hame banane javen qe vjen.
12:14
We think we're going to save more next year.
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Ne mendojme qe do e kursejme para vitin qe vjen.
12:17
Save More Tomorrow
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Kurse me shume Neser
12:20
invites employees
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fton puntoret
12:22
to save more maybe next year --
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per te kursyer mndoshta me shume vitin tketer --
12:24
sometime in the future
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disa here ne te ardhmen
12:26
when we can imagine ourselves
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kur ne te imagjinojme vehten tone
12:28
eating bananas,
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duke ngrene banane,
12:30
volunteering more in the community,
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per te qene vullnetare me shume ne komunitet,
12:32
exercising more and doing all the right things on the planet.
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duke bere me shume dhe duke bere gjerat e duhura nekete planet.
12:36
Now we also talked about checking the box
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Tani ne githshtu folem rreth kutise ne listen e gjerave
12:39
and the difficulty of taking action.
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dhe veshtiresia eshte per te vepruar.
12:42
Save More Tomorrow
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Kurse me shune Neser
12:44
makes it easy.
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beje te lehte.
12:46
It's an autopilot.
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eshte si nje atuto pilot.
12:48
Once you tell me you would like to save more in the future,
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Njehere me thate mua qe donit te kursenit me shume leke ne te ardhmen,
12:52
let's say every January
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ke te themi ne Janar
12:54
you're going to be saving more automatically
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ju do te mund te kurseni ne menyre automatike
12:57
and it's going to go away from your paycheck to the 401(k) plan
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dhe do t'ju dali nga fatura e planit 401(k)
13:00
before you see it, before you touch it,
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perpara se ta shifni , perpara se ta prekni ate,
13:02
before you get the issue
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perpara se te vini te c'eshtja
13:04
of immediate gratification.
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e kenaqsise te menjehershme.
13:07
But what are we going to do about the monkeys
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Por cfare do te bejme rreth majuneve
13:10
and loss aversion?
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dhe mospelqimit humbes
13:12
Next January comes
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Janarin qe vjen
13:14
and people might feel that if they save more,
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njerzit mund te kujtojne qe kane kursyer me shume,
13:16
they have to spend less, and that's painful.
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dhe kane harxhuar me pak , dhe kjo eshte e dhimbshme.
13:20
Well, maybe it shouldn't be just January.
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E pra, ndoshta nuk duhet te jete Janari.
13:22
Maybe we should make people save more
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Ndoshta ne duhet ti bejme njerzit qe te kursejne me shume
13:25
when they make more money.
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kur ata bejne me shume leke.
13:28
That way, when they make more money, when they get a pay raise,
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Menyra , kur ata bejne leke , kur ata marrin nje ngritje rroge,
13:31
they don't have to cut their spending.
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ata nuk mendojne per te ukin shpenzime e tyre.
13:35
They take a little bit
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Ata marrin shume pak nga kjo rritjene faturen e shtepise
13:37
of the increase in the paycheck home
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dhe shpenzojne me shume --
13:39
and spend more --
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dhe shpenzojne me shume --
13:41
take a little bit of the increase
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merr shume pak nga kjo ngrtje
13:43
and put it in a 401(k) plan.
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dhe e fusrin tek plani 401(K).
13:45
So that is the program,
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Pro ky eshte programi,
13:47
embarrassingly simple,
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pa
13:49
but as we're going to see,
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por sic do te shihim me vone,
13:51
extremely powerful.
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jashtezakonisht i fuqishem.
13:53
We first implemented it,
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Se pare ne e implementojme ate,
13:55
Richard Thaler and I,
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Richard Thaler dhe Une,
13:57
back in 1998.
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brapa ne 1998.
14:00
Mid-sized company in the Midwest,
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Nje kompany i mesme ne Midewest,
14:03
blue collar employees
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me puntore me kollare blu
14:05
struggling to pay their bills
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qe perpiqen te paguajne faturat e tyre
14:07
repeatedly told us
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duke e perseritur na thonin neve
14:09
they cannot save more right away.
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qe ata nuk mund te kursejne para menjane.
14:12
Saving more today is not an option.
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Per te kursyer sot nuk eshte nje opsion.
14:15
We invited them to save
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Ne i propozuam ayre per te kursyer
14:17
three percentage points more
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tre perqind te pike me shume
14:20
every time they get a pay raise.
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cdo here qe ata merrin nje ngritje.
14:23
And here are the results.
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Dhe ja ku jane reszultatet.
14:26
We're seeing here a three and a half-year period,
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Ne jemi duke pare ketu tre dhe nje gjysem periudhe,
14:28
four pay raises,
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kater nritje pagesash,
14:30
people who were struggling to save,
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njerzit qe perpiqeshin te kursenin,
14:32
were saving three percent of their paycheck,
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po kursenin 3 perqind te faturave te tyre,
14:34
three and a half years later
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tre vjet e gjysem me vone
14:36
saving almost four times as much,
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kursenin pothuajse 4 here me shume ,
14:39
almost 14 percent.
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pothuajse 14 perqind.
14:42
And there's shoes and bicycles
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Dhe kemi kaepuce dhe bicikleta
14:44
and things on this chart
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dhe disa gjerat ne kete diagram
14:46
because I don't want to just throw numbers
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sepse une nuk dua te tregoj tani vetem shifra
14:48
in a vacuum.
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njehapsire.
14:50
I want, really, to think about the fact
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Une dua, vertete, te mendoj rreth faktit
14:53
that saving four times more
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qe kur kusen 4 here me shume
14:55
is a huge difference
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eshte nje ndyshim i madh
14:57
in terms of the lifestyle
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ne menyre e te jetuarit
14:59
that people will be able to afford.
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qe njerzit mund te jene ne gjendje per ti marre.
15:01
It's real.
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Eshte e vertet.
15:03
It's not just numbers on a piece of paper.
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Nuk jane vetem numra ne nje cope letre.
15:06
Whereas with saving three percent,
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Ndersa me kursimet tre perqind,
15:08
people might have to add nice sneakers
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njerzit mund te kene atlete te
15:10
so they can walk,
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keshtu qe ata mund te ecin,
15:12
because they won't be able to afford anything else,
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sepse nuk do te jene ne gjendje per te blere ndonje gje jeter,
15:16
when they save 14 percent
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kur ata kursejne 14%
15:18
they might be able to maybe have nice dress shoes
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ata mund te kene mundesi te kene edhe kepuce kostumi
15:21
to walk to the car to drive.
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per te ecur dhe per te rejtuar makinen.
15:24
This is a real difference.
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Ky eshte nje ndryshim i madh.
15:26
By now, about 60 percent of the large companies
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Por tani rreth 60% e kompanive te medhaja
15:31
actually have programs like this in place.
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aktualisht kane programe te tilla ne kete vend.
15:34
It's been part of the Pension Protection Act.
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Ka qene pjese e Aktit Brojtes te Pensionit.
15:37
And needless to say that Thaler and I
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Dhe e pa nevojshme per te thene qe Thaleri dhe Une
15:39
have been blessed to be part of this program
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jane te bekuar per te qene pjese e ketij programi
15:42
and make a difference.
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dhe te bejme ndryshime.
15:44
Let me wrap
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Me lejoni te perfundoj
15:46
with two key messages.
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me dy mesazhe te rendesihme.
15:49
One is behavioral finance
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Njera eshte veprimet financiare
15:52
is extremely powerful.
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jane jashtezakonisht te fuqishme.
15:55
This is just one example.
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Ky eshte vetem nje shembull.
15:58
Message two
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Mesazhi dyte
16:00
is there's still a lot to do.
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eshte qe ka shume per te bere.
16:02
This is really the tip of the iceberg.
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Ky eshte tamam maja e ajbergut.
16:05
If you think about people and mortgages
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Nqs ju mendoni rreth njerzit dhe hipotekat
16:08
and buying houses and then not being able to pay for it,
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duke blere shtepi e tejpor te mos qene e mundur ti paguash ato,
16:11
we need to think about that.
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ne na duhet te mendojme rreth tyre.
16:13
If you're thinking about people taking too much risk
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Nqs ju jeni duke menduar rreth njerzve qe marrin shume reziqe
16:16
and not understanding how much risk they're taking
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dhe qe nuk kuptojne se sa rrezik ata kane marre
16:19
or taking too little risk,
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ose te duke marre pak,
16:21
we need to think about that.
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ne duhet te mendojme rreth kesaj.
16:23
If you think about people spending a thousand dollars a year
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Nqs ju mendoni rreth njerzve qe shpenzojne mijra dollare ne vit
16:26
on lottery tickets,
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ne bileta lloratish,
16:28
we need to think about that.
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ne duhet te mendojem rreth kesaj.
16:30
The average actually,
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Mesatarja aktualisht,
16:32
the record is in Singapore.
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rekordi eshte ne Singapore.
16:34
The average household
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Mesatarja e nje pronari
16:36
spends $4,000 a year on lottery tickets.
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shpenzon $4,000 nje vite per bitela llotarie.
16:39
We've got a lot to do,
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Ne na duhet shume per te bere,
16:41
a lot to solve,
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shume per te zgjidhur,
16:43
also in the retirement area
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gjithashtu ne pjesen e pensionit
16:46
when it comes to what people do with their money
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kur vjen puna se c'fare njerzit bejne me parate e tyre
16:48
after retirement.
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mbas pensionit.
16:50
One last question:
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Nje pyetje e fundit:
16:52
How many of you feel comfortable
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Sa nga ju ndiheni te rrehatshem
16:55
that as you're planning for retirement
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se qe nga momenti ju planifikoni per planin e pensionit
16:57
you have a really solid plan
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ju keni nje plan te forte
17:00
when you're going to retire,
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kur ju do te dilni ne pension,
17:02
when you're going to claim Social Security benefits,
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kur ju do te shkoni per te kerkuar perfitimete Social Security
17:05
what lifestyle to expect,
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c'fare lloj jete ju prisni,
17:07
how much to spend every month
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sa shume shpenzon cdo muaj
17:09
so you're not going to run out of money?
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keshtu qe ju nuk do te nglelni pa leke?
17:11
How many of you feel you have a solid plan for the future
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Sa nga ju ndiejne qe kane nje plan te forte per te ardhmen
17:14
when it comes to post-retirement decisions.
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kur vjen puna per vendimet e mbas-pensionit.
17:19
One, two, three, four.
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Nje, dy, tre, kater.
17:22
Less than three percent
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Me pak se tre perqind
17:24
of a very sophisticated audience.
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e ketij auditori te sofistikuar.
17:26
Behavioral finance has a long way.
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Veprimet financiare kane nje rruge te gjate.
17:29
There's a lot of opportunities
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Ka shume mundesira
17:31
to make it powerful again and again and again.
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per ta bere ate te fuqishem perseri dhe perseri dhe perseri.
17:35
Thank you.
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Falemderit.
17:37
(Applause)
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(Duartrokitje )
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Shlomo Benartzi - EconomistShlomo Benartzi uses behavioral economics to study how and why we plan well for the future (or fail to), and uses that to develop new programs to encourage saving for retirement.
Why you should listen
Shlomo Benartzi studies behavioral finance with a special interest in personal finance. He is co-founder of the Behavioral Finance Forum (www.behavioralfinanceforum.com), a collective of 40 prominent academics and 40 major financial institutions from around the globe. The Forum helps consumers make better financial decisions by fostering collaborative research efforts between academics and industry leaders.
Benartzi’s most significant research contribution is the development of Save More Tomorrow™ (SMarT), a behavioral prescription designed to help employees increase their savings rates gradually over time.
Shlomo Benartzi | Speaker | TED.com