TEDxNewYork
Ian Bremmer: How the US should use its superpower status
Ijan Bremer (Ian Bremmer): Kako SAD treba da upotrebi svoj status supersile
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Amerikanizacija i globalizacija su u suštini bile jedno isto tokom poslednjih nekoliko generacija. Međutim, pogled SAD-a na svet i pogled sveta na SAD se menja. Kroz ubrzano proputovanje trenutnim stanjem međunarodne politike, Ijan Bremer razmatra izazove u svetu u kome nijedna zemlja niti savez ne mogu da odgovore na probleme globalnog liderstva i postavlja pitanje da li su SAD spremne da predvode ličnim primerom, a ne silom.
Ian Bremmer - Political theorist
Ian Bremmer is the president and founder of Eurasia Group, a political risk research and consulting firm. Full bio
Ian Bremmer is the president and founder of Eurasia Group, a political risk research and consulting firm. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
When you come to TEDx,
you always think about technology,
you always think about technology,
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Kada dođete na TEDx,
uvek pomislite na tehnologiju,
uvek pomislite na tehnologiju,
svet koji se menja,
povećanje inovativnosti.
povećanje inovativnosti.
00:15
the world changing,
becoming more innovative.
becoming more innovative.
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Razmišljate o automobilima bez vozača.
00:17
You think about the driverless.
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00:19
Everyone's talking
about driverless cars these days,
about driverless cars these days,
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Svi ovih dana govore
o samoupravljajućim automobilima,
o samoupravljajućim automobilima,
i ja obožavam zamisao
samoupravljajućeg automobila,
samoupravljajućeg automobila,
00:22
and I love the concept
of a driverless car,
of a driverless car,
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00:26
but when I go in one, you know,
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ali kada uđem u njega, znate,
00:29
I want it really slow,
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želim da bude veoma spor
00:32
I want access to the steering wheel
and the brake, just in case.
and the brake, just in case.
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i želim pristup volanu i kočnici,
za svaki slučaj.
za svaki slučaj.
00:37
I don't know about you,
but I am not ready for a driverless bus.
but I am not ready for a driverless bus.
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Ne znam kako je kod vas, ali ja nisam
spreman za autobus bez vozača.
spreman za autobus bez vozača.
00:42
I am not ready for a driverless airplane.
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Nisam spreman za avion bez vozača.
00:46
How about a driverless world?
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Šta je sa svetom bez vozača?
00:50
And I ask you that
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Pitam vas to
00:52
because we are increasingly in one.
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jer smo sve više u takvom svetu.
00:56
It's not supposed to be that way.
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Ne bi trebalo da bude tako.
00:58
We're number one,
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Na prvom smo mestu,
01:00
the United States is large and in charge.
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Sjedinjene Države su velike i predvode.
01:04
Americanization and globalization
for the last several generations
for the last several generations
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Amerikanizacija i globalizacija
su proteklih nekoliko generacija
su proteklih nekoliko generacija
01:09
have basically been the same thing.
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u suštini bile jedno isto.
01:12
Right? Whether it's
the World Trade Organization
the World Trade Organization
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Zar ne? Bilo da je u pitanju
Svetska trgovinska organizacija,
Svetska trgovinska organizacija,
01:15
or it's the IMF, the World Bank,
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MMF, Svetska banka
01:18
the Bretton Woods Accord on currency,
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ili Brentonvudski sporazum o valutama,
01:20
these were American institutions,
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to su američke institucije,
01:21
our values, our friends, our allies,
our money, our standards.
our money, our standards.
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naše vrednosti, naši prijatelji,
naši saveznici, naš novac i standardi.
naši saveznici, naš novac i standardi.
01:26
That was the way the world worked.
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Tako je svet funkcionisao.
01:30
So it's sort of interesting,
if you want to look at how the US looks,
if you want to look at how the US looks,
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Nekako je zanimljivo, ako želite
da pogledate kako SAD izgleda,
da pogledate kako SAD izgleda,
01:35
here it is.
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evo slike.
01:36
This is our view of how the world is run.
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Ovo je naše sagledavanje
načina na koji se upravlja svetom.
načina na koji se upravlja svetom.
01:39
President Obama has got the red carpet,
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Predsednik Obama ima crveni tepih,
01:42
he goes down Air Force One,
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silazi sa predsedničkog aviona
i prilično je dobar osećaj,
to deluje prilično prijatno.
to deluje prilično prijatno.
01:44
and it feels pretty good,
it feels pretty comfortable.
it feels pretty comfortable.
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01:47
Well, I don't know how many of you
saw the China trip last week
saw the China trip last week
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Ne znam koliko je vas videlo
put u Kinu prošle nedelje
put u Kinu prošle nedelje
01:50
and the G20.
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i G20.
01:52
Oh my God. Right?
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O, moj bože.
01:54
This is how we landed
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Evo kako smo sletelii
01:56
for the most important meeting
of the world's leaders in China.
of the world's leaders in China.
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na najvažniji sastanak
svetskih lidera u Kini.
svetskih lidera u Kini.
02:00
The National Security Advisor
was actually spewing expletives
was actually spewing expletives
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Savetnica za nacionalnu bezbednost
je zapravo psovala
je zapravo psovala
02:04
on the tarmac --
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na mestu doletanja -
02:06
no red carpet,
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nije bilo crvenog tepiha,
02:07
kind of left out the bottom of the plane
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nekako zapostavljen donji deo aviona
02:10
along with all the media
and everybody else.
and everybody else.
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zajedno sa svim medijima i svima ostalima.
02:13
Later on in the G20,
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Kasnije na samitu G20,
02:15
well, there's Obama.
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pa, eto Obame.
02:18
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
02:19
Hi, George.
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Zdravo, Džordže.
02:21
Hi, Norman.
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Zdravo, Normane.
02:24
They look like they're
about to get into a cage match, right?
about to get into a cage match, right?
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Izgledaju kao da će upravo započeti
bokserski meč, zar ne?
bokserski meč, zar ne?
02:28
And they did. It was 90 minutes long,
and they talked about Syria.
and they talked about Syria.
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I jesu. Trajao je 90 minuta
i razgovarali su o Siriji.
i razgovarali su o Siriji.
O tome je Putin hteo da pričaju.
02:31
That's what Putin wanted to talk about.
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On sve više drži konce u svojim rukama.
02:33
He's increasingly calling the shots.
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02:35
He's the one willing to do stuff there.
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On je taj koji je tu voljan
da sprovodi stvari.
da sprovodi stvari.
02:37
There's not a lot of mutual like or trust,
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Nema mnogo uzajamnog dopadanja
niti poverenja,
niti poverenja,
ali ne može se reći da mu Amerikanci
govore šta treba da radi.
govore šta treba da radi.
02:41
but it's not as if the Americans
are telling him what to do.
are telling him what to do.
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02:44
How about when the whole 20
are getting together?
are getting together?
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A kada se okupe svih 20 članica?
Svakako, kada su svi lideri na sceni,
02:47
Surely, when the leaders are all onstage,
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tada Amerikanci
ispunjavaju svoj deo posla.
ispunjavaju svoj deo posla.
02:49
then the Americans
are pulling their weight.
are pulling their weight.
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O, ne.
02:51
Uh-oh.
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(Smeh)
02:52
(Laughter)
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02:55
Xi Jinping seems fine.
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Si Đinpin deluje u redu.
02:58
Angela Merkel has -- she always does --
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Angela Merkel ima, kao i uvek,
03:00
that look, she always does that.
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taj pogled, što uvek radi.
03:03
But Putin is telling
Turkish president Erdogan what to do,
Turkish president Erdogan what to do,
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Putin govori turskom predsedniku
Erdoganu šta da radi,
Erdoganu šta da radi,
03:06
and Obama is like,
what's going on over there?
what's going on over there?
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a Obama se pita šta se dešava tamo.
Vidite.
03:11
You see. And the problem is
it's not a G20,
it's not a G20,
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A problem je što to nije G20,
03:15
the problem is
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problem je u tome
što je svet u kome živimo G0,
što je svet u kome živimo G0,
03:16
it's a G-Zero world that we live in,
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03:19
a world order where there is
no single country or alliance
no single country or alliance
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svetski poredak u kome ne postoji
jedna država ili savez
jedna država ili savez
03:23
that can meet the challenges
of global leadership.
of global leadership.
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koji može da izađe na kraj
sa izazovima globalnog liderstva.
sa izazovima globalnog liderstva.
03:27
The G20 doesn't work,
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G20 ne funkcioniše,
03:29
the G7, all of our friends,
that's history.
that's history.
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G7, svi naši prijatelji, to je prošlost.
03:34
So globalization is continuing.
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Dakle, globalizacija se nastavlja.
03:36
Goods and services and people
and capital are moving across borders
and capital are moving across borders
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Roba, usluge, ljudi i kapital
kreću se preko granica
kreću se preko granica
03:40
faster and faster than ever before,
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brže nego ikada ranije,
03:42
but Americanization is not.
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ali ne i amerikanizacija.
03:45
So if I've convinced you of that,
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Ako sam vas ubedio u to,
želim da postignem dve stvari
u ostatku govora.
u ostatku govora.
03:47
I want to do two things
with the rest of this talk.
with the rest of this talk.
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03:50
I want to talk
about the implications of that
about the implications of that
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Želim da govorim o implikacijama toga
03:53
for the whole world.
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za ceo svet.
03:55
I'll go around it.
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Ići ću širom sveta.
03:56
And then I want to talk about
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Zatim želim da govorim
03:58
what we think right here
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o onome šta mi mislimo ovde,
04:01
in the United States and in New York.
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u Sjedinjenim Državama i Njujorku.
04:04
So why? What are the implications.
Why are we here?
Why are we here?
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Dakle, zašto? Koje su implikacije?
Zašto smo ovde?
Zašto smo ovde?
04:07
Well, we're here
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Pa, ovde smo
04:09
because the United States,
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jer su Sjedinjene Države,
04:12
we spent two trillion dollars
on wars in Iraq and Afghanistan
on wars in Iraq and Afghanistan
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tj. mi smo potrošili dva biliona dolara
na ratove u Iraku i Avganistanu
na ratove u Iraku i Avganistanu
04:16
that were failed.
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koji su propali.
Ne želimo da to više radimo.
04:17
We don't want to do that anymore.
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04:19
We have large numbers
of middle and working classes
of middle and working classes
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Imamo veliki broj pripadnika
srednje i radničke klase
srednje i radničke klase
04:22
that feel like they've not benefited
from promises of globalization,
from promises of globalization,
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koji smatraju da nisu imali koristi
od obećanja globalizacije,
od obećanja globalizacije,
04:26
so they don't want to see it particularly.
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tako da nemaju naročitu želju da je vide.
04:29
And we have an energy revolution
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Imamo i revoluciju energije
04:32
where we don't need OPEC
or the Middle East the way we used to.
or the Middle East the way we used to.
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gde nam više nije potreban OPEK
na Srednjem Istoku kao nekada.
na Srednjem Istoku kao nekada.
Sve to proizvodimo
upravo ovde u Sjedinjenim Državama.
upravo ovde u Sjedinjenim Državama.
04:35
We produce all that right here
in the United States.
in the United States.
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04:38
So the Americans don't want
to be the global sheriff for security
to be the global sheriff for security
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Dakle, Amerikanci ne žele da budu
svetski šerifi za bezbednost
svetski šerifi za bezbednost
04:43
or the architect of global trade.
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niti graditelji svetske trgovine.
04:45
The Americans don't want to even be
the cheerleader of global values.
the cheerleader of global values.
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Amerikanci čak ne žele da budu
ni navijači za globalne vrednosti.
ni navijači za globalne vrednosti.
04:49
Well, then you look to Europe,
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Onda pogledate Evropu,
04:52
and the most important
alliance in the world
alliance in the world
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i najvažniji savez na svetu
04:54
has been the transatlantic relationship.
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bila je prekoatlantska veza.
04:57
But it is now weaker than it has been
at any point since World War II,
at any point since World War II,
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Međutim, sada je slabija
neko ikada još od Prvog svetskog rata -
neko ikada još od Prvog svetskog rata -
05:02
all of the crises,
the Brexit conversations,
the Brexit conversations,
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sve te krize, razgovori o Bregzitu,
05:04
the hedging going on
between the French and the Russians,
between the French and the Russians,
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mere zaštite koje su se odvijale
između Francuza i Rusa,
između Francuza i Rusa,
05:08
or the Germans and the Turks,
or the Brits and the Chinese.
or the Brits and the Chinese.
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Nemaca i Turaka, ili Britanaca i Kineza.
05:13
China does want to do more leadership.
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Kina želi da se više bavi liderstvom.
05:14
They do, but only in the economic sphere,
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Oni to žele, ali samo u ekonomskom domenu,
05:18
and they want their own values,
standards, currency,
standards, currency,
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i žele svoje vrednosti, standarde, valutu,
05:21
in competition with that of the US.
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u konkurenciji sa onima u SAD-u.
05:23
The Russians want to do more leadership.
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Rusija želi da se više bavi liderstvom.
05:25
You see that in Ukraine,
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Vidite to u Ukrajini,
05:27
in the Baltic states, in the Middle East,
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u baltičkim zemljama, na Srednjem istoku,
05:30
but not with the Americans.
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ali ne i kod Amerikanaca.
05:31
They want their own preferences and order.
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Oni žele ono što njima odgovara
i sopstveno uređenje.
i sopstveno uređenje.
05:34
That's why we are where we are.
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Zato se nalazimo tu gde smo.
05:37
So what happens going forward?
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Šta se dalje dešava?
05:40
Let's start easy,
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Počnimo polako,
05:42
with the Middle East.
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sa Srednjim istokom.
05:45
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
05:48
You know, I left a little out,
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Znate, izostavio sam ponešto,
05:51
but you get the general idea.
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ali imate opštu predstavu.
05:54
Look, there are three reasons
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Vidite, postoje tri razloga
05:56
why the Middle East
has had stability such as it is. Right?
has had stability such as it is. Right?
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zbog kojih je Srednji istok imao
stabilnost kakvu je imao, u redu?
stabilnost kakvu je imao, u redu?
06:01
One is because there was
a willingness to provide
a willingness to provide
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Jedan je jer je postojala
spremnost da se obezbedi
spremnost da se obezbedi
06:05
some level of military security
by the US and allies.
by the US and allies.
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izvestan nivo vojne bezbednosti
od strane SAD-a i saveznika.
od strane SAD-a i saveznika.
06:08
Number two, it was easy to take
a lot of cheap money out of the ground
a lot of cheap money out of the ground
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Kao drugo, bilo je jednostavno
iskopati lak novac
iskopati lak novac
06:13
because oil was expensive.
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jer je nafta bila skupa.
06:15
And number three
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A kao treće,
06:16
was no matter how bad the leaders were,
the populations were relatively quiescent.
the populations were relatively quiescent.
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koliko god da su lideri bili loši,
stanovništvo je relativno mirovalo.
stanovništvo je relativno mirovalo.
06:21
They didn't have the ability,
and many didn't have the will
and many didn't have the will
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Nisu bili u stanju,
a mnogi nisu imali volje
a mnogi nisu imali volje
06:24
to really rise up against.
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da se zaista suprotstave.
06:25
Well, I can tell you, in a G-Zero world,
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Pa, mogu vam reći, u svetu sa G0,
06:28
all three of those things
are increasingly not true,
are increasingly not true,
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te tri stvari sve više ne važe,
06:32
and so failed states,
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pa stoga proizilaze propale države,
06:34
terrorism, refugees and the rest.
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terorizam, izbeglice i ostalo.
06:37
Does the entire Middle East fall apart?
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Da li se čitav Srednji istok raspada?
06:39
No, the Kurds will do better,
and Iraq, Israel, Iran over time.
and Iraq, Israel, Iran over time.
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Ne, Kurdi će napredovati,
kao i Irak, Izrael i Iran vremenom.
kao i Irak, Izrael i Iran vremenom.
Ipak, uopšteno govoreći,
nisu dobri izgledi.
nisu dobri izgledi.
06:43
But generally speaking,
it's not a good look.
it's not a good look.
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06:45
OK, how about this guy?
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U redu, a šta je sa ovim tipom?
06:49
He's playing a poor hand very well.
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On baš dobro igra sa lošim kartama.
06:51
There's no question
he's hitting above his weight.
he's hitting above his weight.
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Nema sumnje da je zagrizao
više nego što može da sažvaće.
više nego što može da sažvaće.
06:54
But long term -- I didn't mean that.
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Međutim, na duže staze - nisam to mislio.
06:57
But long term, long term,
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Ipak, dugoročno gledano,
07:02
if you think that the Russians
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ako mislite da je Ruse
07:03
were antagonized by the US and Europe
expanding NATO right up to their borders
expanding NATO right up to their borders
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naljutilo to što su SAD i Evropa
proširili NATO sve do njihovih granica
proširili NATO sve do njihovih granica
07:09
when we said they weren't going to,
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kada smo rekli da neće tako biti,
07:11
and the EU encroaching them,
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kao i zadiranje Evropske Unije,
07:13
just wait until the Chinese
put hundreds of billions of dollars
put hundreds of billions of dollars
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čekajte samo kada Kinezi
ulože stotine milijardi dolara
ulože stotine milijardi dolara
07:17
in every country around Russia
they thought they had influence in.
they thought they had influence in.
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u svaku zemlju oko Rusije
u kojoj su mislili da imaju uticaj.
u kojoj su mislili da imaju uticaj.
07:20
The Chinese are going to dominate it.
The Russians are picking up the crumbs.
The Russians are picking up the crumbs.
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Kinezi će dominirati njome.
Rusi skupljaju mrvice.
Rusi skupljaju mrvice.
U svetu sa G0, to će biti vrlo napetih
10 godina za gospodina Putina.
10 godina za gospodina Putina.
07:24
In a G-Zero world, this is going to be
a very tense 10 years for Mr. Putin.
a very tense 10 years for Mr. Putin.
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07:33
It's not all bad. Right?
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Nije sve tako loše, zar ne?
07:35
Asia actually looks a lot better.
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Azija zapravo deluje prilično bolje.
07:38
There are real leaders across Asia,
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Postoje pravi lideri širom Azije
i imaju dosta političke stabilnosti.
07:41
they have a lot of political stability.
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07:43
They're there for a while.
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Tu su već duže vreme.
07:44
Mr. Modi in India,
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Gospodin Modi u Indiji,
07:47
Mr. Abe, who is probably
about to get a third term written in
about to get a third term written in
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gospodin Abe, koji će verovatno
upravo zabeležiti treći mandat
upravo zabeležiti treći mandat
u Liberalnoj demokratskoj
stranci u Japanu,
stranci u Japanu,
07:51
in the Liberal Democratic Party in Japan,
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07:53
of course Xi Jinping
who is consolidating enormous power,
who is consolidating enormous power,
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naravno, Si Đinping
koji učvršćuje ogromnu moć,
koji učvršćuje ogromnu moć,
07:56
the most powerful leader in China
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najmoćniji lider u Kini
07:58
since Mao.
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još od Maoa.
08:00
Those are the three
most important economies in Asia.
most important economies in Asia.
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To su tri najvažnije ekonomije u Aziji.
No, vidite, postoje problemi u Aziji.
08:03
Now look, there are problems in Asia.
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Vidimo sukobe oko Južnog kineskog mora.
08:05
We see the sparring
over the South China Sea.
over the South China Sea.
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08:08
We see that Kim Jong Un,
just in the last couple of days,
just in the last couple of days,
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Vidimo da je Kim Džong Un,
pre samo par dana,
pre samo par dana,
testirao još jedno nuklearno oružje.
08:10
tested yet another nuclear weapon.
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08:14
But the leaders in Asia
do not feel the need
do not feel the need
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Ipak, lideri u Aziji ne osećaju potrebu
08:18
to wave the flag,
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da mašu zastavama,
08:19
to go xenophobic,
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da se okrenu ksenofobiji,
08:21
to actually allow escalation
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da uopšte dozvole širenje
08:24
of the geopolitical
and cross-border tensions.
and cross-border tensions.
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geopolitičkih i prekograničnih napetosti.
08:27
They want to focus on long-term
economic stability and growth.
economic stability and growth.
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Žele da se usredsrede na dugoročnu
ekonomsku stabilnost i razvoj.
ekonomsku stabilnost i razvoj.
08:32
And that's what they're actually doing.
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To je ono što zapravo i rade.
08:35
Let's turn to Europe.
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Osvrnimo se na Evropu.
08:38
Europe does look a little scared
in this environment.
in this environment.
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Evropa zaista izgleda
pomalo uplašeno u ovom okruženju.
pomalo uplašeno u ovom okruženju.
08:40
So much of what is happening
in the Middle East
in the Middle East
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Toliko dešavanja na Srednjem istoku
08:43
is washing up quite literally
onto European shores.
onto European shores.
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bukvalno se obrušava na evropske obale.
08:48
You see Brexit and you see
the concerns of populism
the concerns of populism
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Vidite Bregzit i vidite
zabrinutost populizma
zabrinutost populizma
08:51
across all of the European states.
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širom evropskih država.
08:55
Let me tell you that over the long term,
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Mogu vam reći da će na duže staze,
08:58
in a G-Zero world,
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u svetu sa G0,
08:59
European expansion
will be seen to have gone too far.
will be seen to have gone too far.
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širenje Evrope biti sagledavano
kao da je otišlo predaleko.
kao da je otišlo predaleko.
09:04
Europe went right up to Russia,
went right down to the Middle East,
went right down to the Middle East,
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Evropa je otišla skroz gore do Rusije,
stigla skroz dole do Srednjeg istoka,
stigla skroz dole do Srednjeg istoka,
09:08
and if the world were truly becoming
more flat and more Americanized,
more flat and more Americanized,
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i kada bi svet zaista postao
ravniji i amerikanizovaniji,
ravniji i amerikanizovaniji,
09:12
that would be less of a problem,
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to bi bio manji problem,
09:14
but in a G-Zero world,
those countries nearest Russia
those countries nearest Russia
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ali u svetu sa G0,
te zemlje koje su najbliže Rusiji
te zemlje koje su najbliže Rusiji
09:17
and nearest the Middle East
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i najbliže Srednjem istoku
09:19
actually have different
economic capabilities,
economic capabilities,
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imaju različite ekonomske mogućnosti,
09:22
different social stability
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različitu društvenu stabilnost
09:24
and different political preferences
and systems than core Europe.
and systems than core Europe.
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i različite političke preferencije
i sisteme od središnje Evrope.
i sisteme od središnje Evrope.
09:28
So Europe was able to truly expand
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Evropa je uspela da se zaista proširi
09:31
under the G7,
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pod upravom G7,
09:33
but under the G-Zero,
Europe will get smaller.
Europe will get smaller.
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2536
ali pod G0, Evropa će se smanjiti.
09:36
Core Europe around Germany
and France and others
and France and others
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Središnja Evropa oko Nemačke,
Francuske i ostalih
Francuske i ostalih
09:40
will still work, be functional,
stable, wealthy, integrated.
stable, wealthy, integrated.
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i dalje će funkcionisati
i biti stabilna, bogata i integrisana.
i biti stabilna, bogata i integrisana.
09:44
But the periphery,
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Međutim, periferija,
09:46
countries like Greece
and Turkey and others,
and Turkey and others,
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zemlje kao što su Grčka, Turska i druge,
09:48
will not look that good at all.
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uopšte neće tako dobro izgledati.
09:52
Latin America, a lot of populism,
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U Latinskoj Americi zbog mnogo populizma
09:55
made the economies not go so well.
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ekonomija ne ide tako dobro.
09:57
They had been more opposed
to the United States for decades.
to the United States for decades.
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Decenijama više stoje nasuprot
Sjedinjenim Državama.
Sjedinjenim Državama.
10:00
Increasingly, they're coming back.
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Sve više se vraćaju.
10:02
We see that in Argentina.
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To vidimo u Argentini.
10:04
We see it with the openness in Cuba.
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To vidimo sa otvorenošću na Kubi.
10:05
We will see it in Venezuela
when Maduro falls.
when Maduro falls.
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Videćemo to i u Venecueli
kada padne Maduro.
kada padne Maduro.
10:09
We will see it in Brazil
after the impeachment
after the impeachment
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Videćemo to i u Brazilu
nakon zbacivanja predsednika
nakon zbacivanja predsednika
10:12
and when we finally see
a new legitimate president elected there.
a new legitimate president elected there.
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i kada tamo konačno vidimo
izabranog novog legitimnog predsednika.
izabranog novog legitimnog predsednika.
10:16
The only place you see
that is moving in another direction
that is moving in another direction
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Jedino mesto koje vidite
da ide u drugom pravcu
da ide u drugom pravcu
10:19
is the unpopularity
of Mexican president Peña Nieto.
of Mexican president Peña Nieto.
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je nepopularnost
meksičkog predsednika Penje Nijeta.
meksičkog predsednika Penje Nijeta.
10:23
There you could actually see
a slip away from the United States
a slip away from the United States
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Tu biste zapravo mogli videti
udaljavanje od Sjedinjenih Država
udaljavanje od Sjedinjenih Država
10:27
over the coming years.
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tokom predstojećih godina.
10:28
The US election matters a lot
on that one, too.
on that one, too.
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Izbori u SAD-u
su takođe veoma važni za to.
su takođe veoma važni za to.
10:31
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
10:33
Africa, right?
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Afrika...
10:35
A lot of people have said
it's going to be Africa's decade, finally.
it's going to be Africa's decade, finally.
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Mnogo ljudi je reklo
da će doći decenija Afrike, konačno.
da će doći decenija Afrike, konačno.
10:38
In a G-Zero world,
it is absolutely an amazing time
it is absolutely an amazing time
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U svetu sa G0, nastaće neverovatan period
10:42
for a few African countries,
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za nekoliko afričkih zemalja,
10:44
those governed well
with a lot of urbanization,
with a lot of urbanization,
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one koje imaju dobru upravu
sa dosta urbanizacije,
sa dosta urbanizacije,
10:46
a lot of smart people,
women really getting into the workforce,
women really getting into the workforce,
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mnogo pametnih ljudi,
ženama koje ulaze u svet rada,
ženama koje ulaze u svet rada,
10:50
entrepreneurship taking off.
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1976
gde je preduzetništvo u usponu.
10:52
But for most of the countries in Africa,
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Međutim, za većinu zemalja u Africi,
10:55
it's going to be a lot more dicey:
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biće mnogo nezgodnije -
10:56
extreme climate conditions,
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ekstremni klimatski uslovi,
10:59
radicalism both from Islam
and also Christianity,
and also Christianity,
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radikalizam islama i hrišćanstva,
11:04
very poor governance,
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vrlo loša vladavina,
11:05
borders you can't defend,
lots of forced migration.
lots of forced migration.
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granice koje se ne mogu odbraniti,
mnogo prinudne migracije.
mnogo prinudne migracije.
11:08
Those countries can fall off the map.
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Te zemlje mogu da nestanu sa mape.
11:10
So you're really going to see
an extreme segregation going on
an extreme segregation going on
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Dakle, zaista ćete videti
kako se dešava ekstremna podela
kako se dešava ekstremna podela
11:14
between the winners
and the losers across Africa.
and the losers across Africa.
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između pobednika i gubitnika širom Afrike.
11:17
Finally, back to the United States.
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Najzad, vratimo se Sjedinjenim Državama.
11:21
What do I think about us?
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Šta mislim o nama?
11:24
Because there are a lot of upset people,
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Pošto ima mnogo uznemirenih ljudi,
11:27
not here at TEDx, I know,
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ne ovde na TEDx-u, znam,
11:29
but in the United States, my God,
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već u Sjedinjenim Državama, o, bože,
11:31
after 15 months of campaigning,
we should be upset.
we should be upset.
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posle 15 meseci kampanja,
treba da budemo uznemireni.
treba da budemo uznemireni.
11:34
I understand that.
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1976
Razumem to.
11:36
But a lot of people are upset
because they say, "Washington's broken,
because they say, "Washington's broken,
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Međutim, mnogi su uznemireni
jer kažu: „Vašington je uništen,
jer kažu: „Vašington je uništen,
ne verujemo institucijama, mrzimo medije.“
11:39
we don't trust the establishment,
we hate the media."
we hate the media."
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Čak i globalisti poput mene su na udaru.
11:42
Heck, even globalists like me
are taking it on the chin.
are taking it on the chin.
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4136
11:46
Look, I do think we have to recognize,
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Vidite, smatram da treba da prepoznamo,
11:50
my fellow campers,
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2216
drugovi kamperi,
11:53
that when you are being
chased by the bear,
chased by the bear,
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da kada vas juri medved,
11:57
in the global context,
you need not outrun the bear,
you need not outrun the bear,
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u globalnom kontekstu,
ne morate da brže trčite od medveda,
ne morate da brže trčite od medveda,
12:01
you need to only outrun
your fellow campers.
your fellow campers.
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treba samo da trčite brže
od svojih drugova kampera.
od svojih drugova kampera.
12:04
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
12:07
Now, I just told you
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Upravo sam vam govorio
12:09
about our fellow campers.
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o našim drugovima kamperima.
12:12
Right? And from that perspective,
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Iz te perspektive,
12:14
we look OK.
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2016
delujemo u redu.
12:17
A lot of people in that context say,
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2016
Mnogi u tom kontekstu kažu:
12:19
"Let's go dollar.
Let's go New York real estate.
Let's go New York real estate.
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„Hajde da se usmerimo na dolar.
Krenimo na njujorške nekretnine.
Krenimo na njujorške nekretnine.
12:22
Let's send our kids
to American universities."
to American universities."
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Pošaljimo decu na američke univerzitete.“
12:25
You know, our neighbors are awesome:
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Znate, naši susedi su sjajni -
12:27
Canada, Mexico
and two big bodies of water.
and two big bodies of water.
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Kanada, Meksiko i dve ogromne mase vode.
12:30
You know how much Turkey
would love to have neighbors like that?
would love to have neighbors like that?
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Znate li koliko bi Turska
volela takve susede?
volela takve susede?
12:35
Those are awesome neighbors.
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To su fenomenalni susedi.
12:38
Terrorism is a problem
in the United States.
in the United States.
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Terorizam je problem
u Sjedinjenim Državama.
u Sjedinjenim Državama.
12:40
God knows we know it here in New York.
256
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3296
Sam bog zna da to znamo ovde u Njujorku.
Međutim, to je mnogo veći problem
u Evropi nego u SAD-u.
u Evropi nego u SAD-u.
12:44
But it's a much bigger problem
in Europe than the US.
in Europe than the US.
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12:46
It's a much bigger problem
in the Middle East
in the Middle East
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2315
To je mnogo veći problem
na Srednjem istoku
na Srednjem istoku
12:48
than it is in Europe.
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nego u Evropi.
12:50
These are factors of large magnitude.
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2136
To su faktori velikog opsega.
12:52
We just accepted 10,000 Syrian refugees,
and we're complaining bitterly about it.
and we're complaining bitterly about it.
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Upravo smo prihvatili
10 000 sirijskih izbeglica
10 000 sirijskih izbeglica
i ogorčeno se žalimo zbog toga.
12:57
You know why?
Because they can't swim here.
Because they can't swim here.
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Znate li zašto? Zato što ne mogu
da opstanu ovde.
da opstanu ovde.
13:00
Right? I mean, the Turks would love
to have only 10,000 Syrian refugees.
to have only 10,000 Syrian refugees.
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Je l' tako? Mislim, Turci bi voleli
da imaju samo 10 000 sirijskih izbeglica.
da imaju samo 10 000 sirijskih izbeglica.
13:05
The Jordanians,
the Germans, the Brits. Right?
the Germans, the Brits. Right?
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Jordanci, Nemci, Britanci. Zar ne?
13:08
That's not the situation.
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Situacija nije takva.
13:09
That's the reality of the United States.
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To je stvarnost Sjedinjenih Država.
13:13
Now, that sounds pretty good.
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To zvuči prilično dobro.
13:16
Here's the challenge.
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Evo u čemu je problem.
13:18
In a G-Zero world, the way you lead
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U svetu sa G0,
upravljate ličnim primerom.
13:22
is by example.
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13:24
If we know we don't want to be
the global cop anymore,
the global cop anymore,
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Ako znamo da ne želimo
više da budemo svetski policajci,
više da budemo svetski policajci,
13:27
if we know we're not going to be
the architect of global trade,
the architect of global trade,
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2953
ako znamo da nećemo biti
graditelji svetske trgovine,
graditelji svetske trgovine,
13:30
we're not going to be
the cheerleader of global values,
the cheerleader of global values,
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nećemo biti navijači globalnih vrednosti,
nećemo raditi stvari
onako kao što smo do sada,
onako kao što smo do sada,
13:32
we're not going to do it
the way we used to,
the way we used to,
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21. vek se menja,
13:35
the 21st century is changing,
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13:36
we need to lead by example --
be so compelling
be so compelling
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2851
moramo da vodimo primerom -
da budemo toliko ubedljivi
da budemo toliko ubedljivi
13:39
that all these other people
are going to still say,
are going to still say,
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da će svi ti ostali ljudi
i dalje govoriti:
i dalje govoriti:
„Nije samo stvar u tome
što su brži kamperi.
što su brži kamperi.
13:41
it's not just they're faster campers.
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13:43
Even when the bear is not chasing us,
this is a good place to be.
this is a good place to be.
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Čak i kada nas ne juri medved,
dobro je biti na ovom mestu.
dobro je biti na ovom mestu.
13:46
We want to emulate them.
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1360
Želimo da ih oponašamo.“
13:48
The election process this year
is not proving a good option
is not proving a good option
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4440
Izborni proces ove godine
ne pokazuje dobru opciju
ne pokazuje dobru opciju
13:54
for leading by example.
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za predvođenje primerom.
13:56
Hillary Clinton says
it's going to be like the '90s.
it's going to be like the '90s.
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Hilari Klinton kaže da će biti kao '90-ih.
13:59
We can still be
that cheerleader on values.
that cheerleader on values.
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2936
I dalje možemo biti
oni navijači za vrednosti.
oni navijači za vrednosti.
14:02
We can still be
the architect of global trade.
the architect of global trade.
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Možemo i dalje biti
graditelji svetske trgovine.
graditelji svetske trgovine.
14:04
We can still be the global sheriff.
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I dalje možemo biti svetski šerif.
14:06
And Donald Trump wants
to bring us back to the '30s.
to bring us back to the '30s.
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A Donald Tramp želi da nas vrati u '30-e.
14:10
He's saying, "Our way or the highway.
You don't like it, lump it." Right?
You don't like it, lump it." Right?
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On kaže: „Biće po našem ili nikako.
Kome se ne sviđa, neka poljubi i ostavi.“
Kome se ne sviđa, neka poljubi i ostavi.“
14:14
Neither are recognizing
a fundamental truth of the G-Zero,
a fundamental truth of the G-Zero,
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Nijedan ne prepoznaje suštinsku istinu G0,
14:18
which is that even though
the US is not in decline,
the US is not in decline,
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a to je da iako SAD ne propada,
14:22
it is getting objectively harder
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objektivno postaje teže
14:24
for the Americans to impose their will,
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da Amerikanci nameću svoju volju,
14:27
even have great influence,
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iako imaju veliki uticaj
14:29
on the global order.
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na svetski poredak.
14:32
Are we prepared to truly lead by example?
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Jesmo li spremni
da zaista vodimo primerom?
da zaista vodimo primerom?
14:36
What would we have to do to fix this
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Šta bismo morali da uradimo
da ovo popravimo
da ovo popravimo
14:39
after November,
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nakon novembra,
14:40
after the next president comes in?
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nakon što dođe novi predsednik?
14:42
Well, either we have to have
another crisis that forces us to respond.
another crisis that forces us to respond.
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Pa, moraćemo ili da imamo još jednu krizu
koja nas primorava da reagujemo.
koja nas primorava da reagujemo.
14:47
A depression would do that.
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Depresija bi to postigla.
Još jedna svetska finansijska kriza
bi to mogla postići.
bi to mogla postići.
14:49
Another global financial
crisis could do this.
crisis could do this.
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Ne daj bože, drugi 11. septembar
bi to mogao postići.
bi to mogao postići.
14:51
God forbid, another 9/11 could do that.
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14:53
Or, absent crisis,
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Ili, u odsustvu krize,
14:55
we need to see that the hollowing out,
the inequality, the challenges
the inequality, the challenges
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moramo da uvidimo da su nestajanje
srednje klase, nejednakosti,
srednje klase, nejednakosti,
problemi koji su u porastu
u Sjedinjenim Državama
u Sjedinjenim Državama
15:01
that are growing and growing
in the United States,
in the United States,
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sami po sebi dovoljno hitni
15:04
are themselves urgent enough
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15:06
to force our leaders to change,
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da primoraju naše lidere na promenu,
15:08
and that we have those voices.
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kao i da imamo način da se izjasnimo.
15:11
Through our cell phones, individually,
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Preko mobilnih telefona, pojedinačno,
15:13
we have those voices
to compel them to change.
to compel them to change.
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posedujemo način da se izjasnimo
kako bismo ih nagnali na promenu.
kako bismo ih nagnali na promenu.
15:17
There is, of course, a third choice,
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Naravno, postoji treći izbor,
15:20
perhaps the most likely one,
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možda najverovatniji,
15:22
which is that we do
neither of those things,
neither of those things,
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a to je da ne uradimo ništa od toga
15:24
and in four years time you invite me back,
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i za četiri godine me ponovo pozovete,
15:27
and I will give this speech yet again.
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a ja vam opet iznesem ovaj govor.
15:30
Thank you very, very much.
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Mnogo, mnogo vam hvala.
15:32
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Ian Bremmer - Political theoristIan Bremmer is the president and founder of Eurasia Group, a political risk research and consulting firm.
Why you should listen
Dubbed a "rising guru" in the field of political risk by The Economist, Ian Bremmer teaches classes on the discipline as global research professor at New York University and is a foreign affairs columnist and editor at large for Time magazine. His latest book, Superpower: Three Choices for America’s Role in the World, was published in May 2015.
Bremmer is credited with bringing the craft of political risk to financial markets. He created Wall Street's first global political risk index (GPRI), and he established political risk as an academic discipline. His definition of emerging markets -- "those countries where politics matter at least as much as economics for market outcomes" -- has become an industry standard. "G-Zero," his term for a global power vacuum in which no country is willing and able to set the international agenda, is widely accepted by policymakers and thought leaders.
Bremmer has published nine books including the national bestsellers Every Nation for Itself: Winners and Losers in a G-Zero World and The End of the Free Market: Who Wins the War Between States and Corporations? He is a regular columnist for the Financial Times and has written hundreds of articles for many leading publications. He appears regularly on CNBC, Fox, Bloomberg, CNN, the BBC and other networks.
Bremmer earned a PhD in political science from Stanford University in 1994 and was the youngest-ever national fellow at the Hoover Institution. In 2007, Bremmer was named a Young Global Leader of the World Economic Forum, where he is the founding chairman of the Global Agenda Council on Geopolitical Risk. He is the Harold J. Newman Distinguished Fellow in Geopolitics at the Asia Society Policy Institute and serves on the President's Council of the Near East Foundation, the Leadership Council for Concordia and the Board of Trustees of Intelligence Squared.
Bremmer grew up in Boston and currently lives in New York and Washington.
Ian Bremmer | Speaker | TED.com