TEDWomen 2010
Naomi Klein: Addicted to risk
娜奥米·克莱恩（Naomi Klein）：沉迷于冒险
Filmed:
Readability: 4.7
1,031,224 views
在这次演讲之前几天，新闻记者娜奥米·克莱恩在墨西哥湾的一艘船上，查看由于英国石油公司（BP）的石油泄漏导致的灾难性后果。我们的社会在寻找新的能源、新的财政措施等等上已经沉迷于极端风险之中...过于频繁了，之后我们被留下来清理这一团糟的泄油问题。克莱恩问：有什么后备计划么？
Naomi Klein - Journalist, activist
Naomi Klein is a public intellectual, journalist and activist. Full bio
Naomi Klein is a public intellectual, journalist and activist. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
I just did something I've never done before.
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我刚做了些之前从未做过的事。
00:18
I spent a week at sea on a research vessel.
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我随一艘研究船在海上呆了一个礼拜。
00:21
Now I'm not a scientist,
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我不是名科学家，
00:23
but I was accompanying a remarkable scientific team
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但我与一个来自南佛罗里达大学的
00:26
from the University of South Florida
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杰出的科学团队一起
00:28
who have been tracking the travels of BP's oil
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在墨西哥湾工作，这个团队在
00:31
in the Gulf of Mexico.
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跟踪英国石油公司泄漏石油的流向。
00:33
This is the boat we were on, by the way.
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顺便提一下，这是我们乘坐的船。
00:36
The scientists I was with
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与我一起的科学家们
00:38
were not studying the effect of the oil and dispersants on the big stuff --
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不是在研究在大家伙上的石油和化油剂的影响--
00:41
the birds, the turtles,
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比如对鸟类、海龟、
00:43
the dolphins, the glamorous stuff.
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海豚和迷人风景的影响。
00:45
They're looking at the really little stuff
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他们在找些很小的东西
00:48
that gets eaten by the slightly less little stuff
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这些小东西被更小的东西吃掉
00:51
that eventually gets eaten by the big stuff.
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并最终被大家伙所吞食。
00:54
And what they're finding
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他们所研究的是
00:56
is that even trace amounts of oil and dispersants
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跟踪石油和在植物病理学上
00:59
can be highly toxic to phytoplankton,
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有高度毒性的化油剂的数量，
01:01
which is very bad news,
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这是个非常坏的消息，
01:03
because so much life depends on it.
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因为有许多的生命以此为生。
01:06
So contrary to what we heard a few months back
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因此，与我们数月之前听到的相反
01:08
about how 75 percent of that oil
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大约百分之七十五的石油
01:10
sort of magically disappeared
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神奇的消失了，
01:12
and we didn't have to worry about it,
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我们不需要再担心它了，
01:14
this disaster is still unfolding.
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但这场灾难仍然在蔓延。
01:17
It's still working its way up the food chain.
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它仍在不断向食物链上方产生影响。
01:20
Now this shouldn't come as a surprise to us.
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现在我们对这应该不会感到奇怪了。
01:23
Rachel Carson --
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雷切尔·卡森--
01:25
the godmother of modern environmentalism --
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现代环境保护论的教母--
01:27
warned us about this very thing
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早在1962年
01:29
back in 1962.
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就警告过我们。
01:31
She pointed out that the "control men" --
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她指出，控制人员--
01:33
as she called them --
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她这么称呼他们--
01:35
who carpet-bombed towns and fields
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用有毒性的杀虫剂如滴滴涕（DDT），
01:37
with toxic insecticides like DDT,
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对城镇和田野进行地毯式轰炸，
01:40
were only trying to kill the little stuff, the insects,
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仅仅是为了杀死些小东西，昆虫，
01:43
not the birds.
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不是鸟类。
01:45
But they forgot this:
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但他们忘了这些：
01:47
the fact that birds dine on grubs,
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事实上，鸟类外出觅食，
01:49
that robins eat lots of worms
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知更鸟吃掉许多的虫子
01:51
now saturated with DDT.
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而这些虫子体内充满了滴滴涕。
01:54
And so, robin eggs failed to hatch,
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因此，知更鸟的蛋无法孵化，
01:57
songbirds died en masse,
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鸣鸟也一起死去，
01:59
towns fell silent.
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城镇陷入寂静。
02:01
Thus the title "Silent Spring."
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这就是标题的来源“寂静的春天。”
02:05
I've been trying to pinpoint
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我试着找出
02:07
what keeps drawing me back to the Gulf of Mexico,
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是什么不断地把我拉回到墨西哥湾，
02:09
because I'm Canadian,
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因为我是加拿大人，
02:11
and I can draw no ancestral ties.
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我没有什么先祖情结。
02:13
And I think what it is
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并且，我认为把我拉回墨西哥湾
02:15
is I don't think we have fully come to terms
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的是我不认为我们完全达成了共识
02:18
with the meaning of this disaster,
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在这次灾难的意义上，
02:21
with what it meant to witness a hole
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在它证明了我们的世界中有一个
02:24
ripped in our world,
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快速裂开的裂缝上，
02:26
with what it meant to watch the contents of the Earth
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在它意味着数月来的每一天24小时的
02:29
gush forth on live TV,
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电视直播中
02:31
24 hours a day,
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我们观看地球上
02:33
for months.
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喷涌而出的石油。
02:35
After telling ourselves for so long
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长期以来我们告诉自己
02:38
that our tools and technology can control nature,
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我们的工具和技术能够控制自然，
02:41
suddenly we were face-to-face
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我们突然面对
02:43
with our weakness,
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我们的弱点，
02:45
with our lack of control,
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我们的缺乏控制，
02:47
as the oil burst out
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随着石油泄漏，
02:49
of every attempt to contain it --
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每次进行回收的尝试 --
02:52
"top hats," "top kills"
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带帽法，顶部封杀
02:54
and, most memorably, the "junk shot" --
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和，最难忘的，垃圾弹法 --
02:56
the bright idea
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用废旧的轮胎和旧高尔夫球
02:58
of firing old tires and golf balls
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收集泄漏孔中漏出石油
03:01
down that hole in the world.
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的聪明点子。
03:03
But even more striking
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但比起从那口油井中喷发出的力量
03:05
than the ferocious power emanating from that well
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显得更为惊人的凶猛能量
03:08
was the recklessness
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是人们的鲁莽
03:10
with which that power was unleashed --
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所释放出的
03:12
the carelessness, the lack of planning
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如粗心大意，缺少计划，
03:15
that characterized the operation
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从钻孔到清理的
03:17
from drilling to clean-up.
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操作都是如此。
03:20
If there is one thing
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如果有一件事物能让
03:22
BP's watery improv act made clear,
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英国石油公司的改进行动更明确有力，
03:25
it is that, as a culture,
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那就是，作为一种文化，
03:27
we have become far too willing to gamble
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我们变得绝不容忍用这些
03:29
with things that are precious
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珍贵的不可替代的
03:31
and irreplaceable,
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事物作为赌注 --
03:33
and to do so without a back-up plan,
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在没有后备计划，收尾策略的
03:36
without an exit strategy.
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情况下就去做。
03:38
And BP was hardly
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并且英国石油公司的这次泄油事件并不是
03:40
our first experience of this in recent years.
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今年来我们第一次经历这类事件。
03:42
Our leaders barrel into wars,
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我们的领导者卷入战争，
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telling themselves happy stories
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用关于阅兵仪式和欢迎游行的
03:46
about cakewalks and welcome parades.
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美好故事来麻醉自己，
03:49
Then, it is years of deadly damage control,
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而后就持续数年的致命的灾难控制，
03:52
Frankensteins of sieges and surges
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围困和突围，
03:55
and counter-insurgencies,
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还有镇压叛乱，
03:57
and once again, no exit strategy.
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并再一次的，没有收尾策略。
04:00
Our financial wizards routinely fall victim
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我们的金融天才们一再
04:03
to similar overconfidence,
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成为过度自信的牺牲品，
04:05
convincing themselves that the latest bubble
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说服自己这最近出现的泡沫
04:07
is a new kind of market --
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是一种新型的市场 --
04:09
the kind that never goes down.
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是那种绝不会垮掉的市场。
04:11
And when it inevitably does,
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而当这一切不可避免的发生时，
04:13
the best and the brightest
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最优秀的和最聪明的人
04:15
reach for the financial equivalent of the junk shot --
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努力寻求金融中的“垃圾弹”--
04:17
in this case, throwing massive amounts
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在这种情况下，把数量巨大的
04:19
of much-needed public money
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急需的公款投入到
04:21
down a very different kind of hole.
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各种不同类型的漏洞之中。
04:24
As with BP, the hole does get plugged,
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就像英国石油公司那样，漏洞堵住了，
04:26
at least temporarily,
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至少暂时堵住了，
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but not before
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但付出了
04:30
exacting a tremendous price.
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及其巨大的代价。
04:32
We have to figure out
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我们必须弄清楚
04:34
why we keep letting this happen,
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为什么我们一直让这类事情发生，
04:36
because we are in the midst
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因为我们处在一个
04:38
of what may be our highest-stakes gamble of all --
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要赌上全部身家的赌局之中：
04:41
deciding what to do, or not to do,
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关于气候变化，
04:43
about climate change.
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决定做什么，不做什么。
04:45
Now as you know,
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如各位所知，
04:47
a great deal of time is spent,
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在这个国家和世界各国
04:49
in this country and around the world,
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的气候议题上
04:51
inside the climate debate,
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我们花费了许多时间。
04:53
on the question of, "What if the IPC scientists
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关于“如果政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）的科学家全都是
04:56
are all wrong?"
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错误的话怎么办？”的问题。
04:58
Now a far more relevant question --
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现在有个更恰当的问题--
05:00
as MIT physicist Evelyn Fox Keller puts it --
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由麻州理工大学的物理学家伊芙林·福克斯·凯勒提出的--
05:03
is, "What if those scientists are right?"
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“如果这些科学家是正确的呢？”
05:08
Given the stakes, the climate crisis
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由于影响深远，气候危机
05:10
clearly calls for us to act
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无疑需要我们基于
05:12
based on the precautionary principle --
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预防原则上展开行动--
05:15
the theory that holds
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理论表明
05:17
that when human health and the environment
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当人类健康和环境
05:19
are significantly at risk
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处于极度危险
05:21
and when the potential damage is irreversible,
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并且当永久性伤害不可逆转时，
05:24
we cannot afford to wait
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我们不能等待
05:26
for perfect scientific certainty.
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确切的科学确认。
05:28
Better to err on the side of caution.
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谨慎些总是好的。
05:31
More overt, the burden of proving
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更明显的，证明一个方法
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that a practice is safe
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是否是安全的责任，
05:35
should not be placed on the public that would be harmed,
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这不应由公众承担，这样是有害的，
05:38
but rather on the industry that stands to profit.
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它应该由获得利益的行业来承担。
05:42
But climate policy in the wealthy world --
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但发达国家的气候政策--
05:44
to the extent that such a thing exists --
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如果有这样的政策存在的话--
05:47
is not based on precaution,
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并不是基于预防的。
05:49
but rather on cost-benefit analysis --
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而是基于成本收益分析--
05:52
finding the course of action that economists believe
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找出那些经济学家们认为
05:54
will have the least impact
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对我们的GDP影响
05:56
on our GDP.
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最小的行动方式。
05:58
So rather than asking, as precaution would demand,
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而不是依照可能需要的预防问
06:01
what can we do as quickly as possible
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我们需要尽快做些什么
06:03
to avoid potential catastrophe,
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以避免潜在的灾难，
06:06
we ask bizarre questions like this:
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我们问些奇怪的问题，如：
06:09
"What is the latest possible moment we can wait
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“在我们开始真正的降低排放之前，
06:12
before we begin seriously lowering emissions?
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我们能坚持到什么时候？
06:15
Can we put this off till 2020,
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我们能推迟到2020年，
06:17
2030, 2050?"
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2030年，2050年？”
06:20
Or we ask,
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或者我们问，
06:22
"How much hotter can we let the planet get
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“我们能让这个地球再升温多少，
06:24
and still survive?
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而我们还能幸存？
06:26
Can we go with two degrees, three degrees, or --
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再提高两度，三度，或者--
06:28
where we're currently going --
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在现在的基础上--
06:30
four degrees Celsius?"
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再提高四摄氏度？”
06:32
And by the way,
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顺便一提，
06:34
the assumption that we can safely control
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假设我们能安全的控制地球
06:36
the Earth's awesomely complex climate system
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那了不起的复杂的气候系统，
06:39
as if it had a thermostat,
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就像它有了一个自动调温器，
06:41
making the planet not too hot, not too cold,
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让这个星期不太热，也不太冷，
06:44
but just right -- sort of Goldilocks style --
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温度正合适 -- 适合居住的风格 --
06:47
this is pure fantasy,
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这完全是想象，
06:49
and it's not coming from the climate scientists.
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不是来自气候科学家的想象；
06:52
It's coming from the economists
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它来自经济学家把
06:54
imposing their mechanistic thinking
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他们的思考方式强加于
06:56
on the science.
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科学之上。
06:58
The fact is that we simply don't know
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事实上我们并不知道
07:00
when the warming that we create
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在何时地球的循环系统
07:02
will be utterly overwhelmed
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将完全无法承受
07:04
by feedback loops.
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我们制造的全球变暖。
07:06
So once again,
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那么再一次地，
07:08
why do we take these crazy risks
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为什么我们要用我们宝贵的事物
07:10
with the precious?
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来冒如此巨大的风险呢？
07:12
A range of explanations
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现在你脑中也许会蹦出
07:14
may be popping into your mind by now,
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一堆的解释，
07:16
like "greed."
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比如，贪婪。
07:18
This is a popular explanation, and there's lots of truth to it,
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这是个常见的解释，并且也有许多证据表明这点。
07:21
because taking big risks, as we all know,
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因为正如我们所知，承担巨大风险
07:24
pays a lot of money.
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意味着巨大的收益。
07:26
Another explanation that you often hear for recklessness
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另一个大家常听到的对不顾后果的行为的解释
07:28
is hubris.
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是傲慢。
07:30
And greed and hubris
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而贪婪和傲慢
07:32
are intimately intertwined
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紧密的交织在一起，
07:34
when it comes to recklessness.
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尤其是谈到不顾一切时。
07:36
For instance, if you happen to be a 35-year-old banker
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例如，如果你是名35岁的银行家
07:39
taking home 100 times more
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比脑外科医生的收入多
07:41
than a brain surgeon,
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100倍以上，
07:43
then you need a narrative,
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接着你需要一个叙事技巧，
07:45
you need a story
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需要一个故事让
07:47
that makes that disparity okay.
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这一差距合理化。
07:49
And you actually don't have a lot of options.
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实际上你没有太多的选择。
07:52
You're either an incredibly good scammer,
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你不但是个技艺高超的骗子，
07:55
and you're getting away with it -- you gamed the system --
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你能解决问题-- 你瞒天过海 --
07:57
or you're some kind of boy genius,
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你是个天才，
07:59
the likes of which the world has never seen.
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是那种世上绝无仅有的天才。
08:02
Now both of these options -- the boy genius and the scammer --
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这些选项-- 天才和骗子 --
08:05
are going to make you vastly overconfident
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将让你过于自信
08:07
and therefore more prone
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并由此在未来
08:09
to taking even bigger risks in the future.
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更倾向于冒更大的风险。
08:13
By the way, Tony Hayward, the former CEO of BP,
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顺便说一下，托尼·海沃德，英国石油公司的前任CEO，
08:16
had a plaque on his desk
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在他的办公桌上
08:18
inscribed with this inspirational slogan:
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有个雕刻着鼓舞人心的口号标语：
08:20
"What would you attempt to do
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“如果你知道你不会失败，
08:22
if you knew you could not fail?"
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那你会尝试去做什么？”
08:25
Now this is actually a popular plaque,
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目前这是个很受欢迎的标语，
08:28
and this is a crowd of overachievers,
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并且有不少追随者，
08:30
so I'm betting that some of you have this plaque.
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我打赌你们中就有人信奉这一标语。
08:33
Don't feel ashamed.
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别害羞。
08:35
Putting fear of failure out of your mind
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把对失败的恐惧抛到脑后
08:37
can be a very good thing
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是件很好的事，
08:39
if you're training for a triathlon
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如果你进行铁人三项的训练
08:41
or preparing to give a TEDTalk,
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或是准备一个TED演讲时，
08:44
but personally, I think people with the power
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但我个人认为，有能力引爆
08:46
to detonate our economy and ravage our ecology
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我们的经济、破坏我们的生态的人们
08:49
would do better having
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最好还是在墙上挂
08:51
a picture of Icarus hanging from the wall,
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一幅伊卡洛斯的画，
08:53
because -- maybe not that one in particular --
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因为 -- 也许这不是特别的一幅画 --
08:56
but I want them thinking about the possibility of failure
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但我希望永远都考虑到
08:59
all of the time.
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失败的可能性。
09:01
So we have greed,
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目前我们有了贪婪，
09:03
we've got overconfidence/hubris,
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过度自信/傲慢，
09:05
but since we're here at TEDWomen,
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但由于我们来到了TEDWomen，
09:07
let's consider one other factor
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让我们考虑下另一个因素，
09:09
that could be contributing in some small way
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一个能在一些小方面对抗
09:11
to societal recklessness.
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社会上不顾后果的方式。
09:15
Now I'm not going to belabor this point,
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现在我不打算痛斥这一点，
09:17
but studies do show that, as investors,
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但研究显示，作为投资者，
09:19
women are much less prone
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女性冒不顾后果的风险的
09:21
to taking reckless risks than men,
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可能性要小于男性，
09:24
precisely because, as we've already heard,
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正是因为如此，也如我们曾听过的，
09:26
women tend not to suffer from overconfidence
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在同样情况下女性比男性
09:29
in the same way that men do.
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更不易遭遇过度自信的问题。
09:31
So it turns out
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因此我们发现
09:33
that being paid less and praised less
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获得较少的收入和赞美
09:35
has its upsides --
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也有它的优点 --
09:37
for society at least.
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至少对社会来说如此。
09:39
The flipside of this
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与之相反的另一面是
09:41
is that constantly being told
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你不断被告知
09:43
that you are gifted, chosen
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你有天赋，是天定的
09:45
and born to rule
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生下来就注定要统治
09:47
has distinct societal downsides.
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这明显对社会有负面影响。
09:50
And this problem -- call it the "perils of privilege" --
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而这一问题 -- 称之特权的危险 --
09:53
brings us closer, I think,
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我认为，让我们离
09:55
to the root of our collective recklessness.
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我们群体不顾后果的根本原因更近了。
09:58
Because none of us -- at least in the global North --
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因为我们中没人 -- 至少在北半球没有 --
10:00
neither men nor women,
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不论是男性还是女性，
10:02
are fully exempt from this message.
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能完全避免这些信息。
10:05
Here's what I'm talking about.
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这就是我所谈论的。
10:07
Whether we actively believe them
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无论我们是积极的相信它们
10:09
or consciously reject them,
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还是有意识的抵制它们，
10:11
our culture remains in the grips
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我们的文化中保持了
10:13
of certain archetypal stories
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一些典型的故事，
10:15
about our supremacy
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其中讲述了我们是如何的优于
10:17
over others and over nature --
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其他人，优于自然。
10:19
the narrative of the newly discovered frontier
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新发现的前沿和
10:22
and the conquering pioneer,
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征服者先锋的故事，
10:24
the narrative of manifest destiny,
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天命的故事，
10:26
the narrative of apocalypse and salvation.
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和启示录和救赎的故事。
10:28
And just when you think these stories are fading into history,
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并且等你认为这些故事消失在历史长河中，
10:30
and that we've gotten over them,
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我们都已经把它们遗忘了的时候，
10:32
they pop up in the strangest places.
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它们会在最奇特的地方蹦出来。
10:35
For instance, I stumbled across this advertisement
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例如，我在堪萨斯城机场的
10:37
outside the women's washroom
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女洗手间外面
10:39
in the Kansas City airport.
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无意中看到了这个广告。
10:41
It's for Motorola's new Rugged cell phone,
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这是摩托罗拉一款新手机的广告，
10:43
and yes, it really does say,
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是的，上面确实是这样写的，
10:45
"Slap Mother Nature in the face."
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“给自然之母一个耳光。”
10:47
And I'm not just showing it to pick on Motorola --
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我展示这个广告不是为了指责摩托罗拉 --
10:49
that's just a bonus.
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这只是个意外。
10:51
I'm showing it because --
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我展示它是因为 --
10:53
they're not a sponsor, are they? --
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他们不是始作俑者，不是么？ --
10:55
because, in its own way,
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因为，以其自己的方式呈现的，
10:57
this is a crass version
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这广告是我们发展史的
10:59
of our founding story.
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一个粗鲁的版本。
11:01
We slapped Mother Nature around and won,
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我们粗暴的对待自然之母，并胜利了。
11:03
and we always win,
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我们总是胜利，
11:05
because dominating nature is our destiny.
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因为支配自然是我们的使命。
11:08
But this is not the only fairytale we tell ourselves about nature.
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但我们关于自然的童话不仅仅只是支配自然。
11:11
There's another one, equally important,
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还有另一个同样重要的，
11:14
about how that very same Mother Nature
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关于自然之母是
11:16
is so nurturing and so resilient
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如此的富饶、如此的富有韧性，
11:19
that we can never make a dent in her abundance.
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以至于我们绝不可能削弱她的富饶。
11:22
Let's hear from Tony Hayward again.
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让我们再听听托尼·海沃德所说的。
11:24
"The Gulf of Mexico is a very big ocean.
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“墨西哥湾是个非常辽阔的海洋。
11:27
The amount of oil and dispersants that we are putting into it
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我们投入其中的石油和化油剂的数量
11:30
is tiny in relation to the total water volume."
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相对于水容量总数来说非常微小。”
11:33
In other words, the ocean is big;
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换句话说，海洋是辽阔的；
11:35
she can take it.
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她能承受这一切。
11:38
It is this underlying assumption of limitlessness
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这是对无限的潜在假设，
11:41
that makes it possible
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这使我们进行不计后果地
11:43
to take the reckless risks that we do.
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冒险成为可能。
11:46
Because this is our real master-narrative:
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因为这是我们实时的主流舆论：
11:49
however much we mess up,
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无论我们陷入怎样的困境，
11:51
there will always be more --
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总会有更多的 --
11:53
more water, more land,
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更多的水源，更多的土地，
11:56
more untapped resources.
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更多的未使用的资源。
11:58
A new bubble will replace the old one.
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新的泡沫会替代旧的泡沫。
12:00
A new technology will come along
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新的科技将会出现，
12:02
to fix the messes we made with the last one.
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收拾我们用上一项科技造成的烂摊子。
12:05
In a way, that is the story
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在某种程度上，这就是
12:07
of the settling of the Americas,
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美洲定居者的故事，
12:09
the supposedly inexhaustible frontier
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美洲拥有无穷尽的疆土
12:11
to which Europeans escaped.
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因此欧洲人逃向这里。
12:14
And it's also the story of modern capitalism,
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这也是现代资本主义的故事。
12:17
because it was the wealth from this land
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因为是来自这片土地的财富
12:19
that gave birth to our economic system,
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成就了我们的经济系统，
12:22
one that cannot survive without perpetual growth
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如果没有不断的成长
12:25
and an unending supply
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无穷尽的新开拓者，
12:27
of new frontiers.
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这一系统则无法幸存。
12:29
Now the problem is
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现在问题是
12:31
that the story was always a lie.
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这类故事总是谎言。
12:33
The Earth always did have limits.
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地球永远都存在极限，
12:35
They were just beyond our sights.
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只是我们看不见它。
12:37
And now we are hitting those limits
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目前我们在许多方面
12:39
on multiple fronts.
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都接近了这些极限。
12:42
I believe that we know this,
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我相信大家都知道这点，
12:44
yet we find ourselves trapped in a kind of narrative loop.
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然而我们发现自己陷入了某种叙事轮回之中。
12:47
Not only do we continue to tell and retell
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我们不仅继续讲述和重述
12:50
the same tired stories,
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同样的老掉牙的故事，
12:52
but we are now doing so
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而且我们现在做的
12:54
with a frenzy and a fury
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更加狂热和疯狂，
12:56
that, frankly, verges on camp.
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说实在的，趋于分裂。
12:59
How else to explain the cultural space
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不然怎么解释莎拉·佩林Sarah Palin
13:02
occupied by Sarah Palin?
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所充斥的文化空间呢？
13:04
Now on the one hand,
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现在一方面，
13:06
exhorting us to "drill, baby, drill,"
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敦促我们“钻油 宝贝 钻油，”
13:08
because God put those resources into the ground
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因为上帝把这些资源埋在地下
13:11
in order for us to exploit them,
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那就是让我们去开采它们，
13:14
and on the other, glorying in the wilderness
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另一方面，在她受欢迎的
13:17
of Alaska's untouched beauty
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真人秀节目中她又赞颂阿拉斯加
13:19
on her hit reality TV show.
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那原始的野性之美。
13:22
The twin message is as comforting as it is mad.
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这矛盾的信息让人欣慰也让人疯狂。
13:25
Ignore those creeping fears
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忽视这些蔓延的恐惧
13:27
that we have finally hit the wall.
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我们终会碰壁。
13:29
There are still no limits.
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这开发仍然没有极限。
13:31
There will always be another frontier.
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总会有另一片新疆土。
13:34
So stop worrying and keep shopping.
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因此停止担忧继续挥霍。
13:37
Now, would that this were just about
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现实要是如这
13:39
Sarah Palin and her reality TV show.
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莎拉·佩林和她的真人秀节目就好了。
13:41
In environmental circles,
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在环保领域内，
13:43
we often hear that, rather than shifting to renewables,
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我们常听到我们继续保持原状，
13:46
we are continuing with business as usual.
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而不是转变为使用可再生能源。
13:49
This assessment, unfortunately,
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不幸的是，这一评估
13:51
is far too optimistic.
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太过乐观了。
13:53
The truth is that we have already exhausted
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事实是，我们已经耗尽了
13:56
so much of the easily accessible fossil fuels
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如此多的易得的矿物燃料
13:59
that we have already entered
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以至于我们已经进入了
14:01
a far riskier business era,
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极具风险的时代，
14:04
the era of extreme energy.
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极端能源的时代。
14:06
So that means drilling for oil in the deepest water,
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因此这意味着在最深的水中钻油，
14:09
including the icy Arctic seas,
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包括冰冷的北冰洋，
14:11
where a clean-up may simply be impossible.
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在那儿清理油污基本上是不可能的。
14:14
It means large-scale hydraulic fracking for gas
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这意味着大型的水力破裂法来开发天然气
14:17
and massive strip-mining operations for coal,
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和大规模的露天开矿采煤，
14:19
the likes of which we haven't yet seen.
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还有其他我们没见过的方法来大力开发。
14:22
And most controversially, it means the tar sands.
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而最具争议的是焦油砂。
14:25
I'm always surprised by how little
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我总是对加拿大之外
14:27
people outside of Canada
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只有非常少的人知道
14:29
know about the Alberta Tar Sands,
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阿尔伯达焦油砂感到惊奇，
14:31
which this year are projected to become
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而在今年从焦油砂提炼出的石油
14:33
the number one source of imported oil
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将成为美国进口石油
14:36
to the United States.
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来源的首位。
14:38
It's worth taking a moment to understand this practice,
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值得花些时间来理解这一开采过程，
14:41
because I believe it speaks to recklessness
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因为我相信从中能看出我们的不计后果
14:43
and the path we're on
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和我们所通行的道路，
14:45
like little else.
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而没有其他的。
14:47
So this is where the tar sands live,
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这就是焦油砂所在的地方，
14:50
under one of the last magnificent
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在最后的富饶的
14:52
Boreal forests.
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北方森林之下。
14:54
The oil is not liquid.
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这石油不是液体；
14:56
You can't just drill a hole and pump it out.
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不能仅仅是钻个空就能把它抽出来。
14:58
Tar sand's oil is solid,
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焦油砂中的石油是固态的，
15:00
mixed in with the soil.
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与土壤混合在一起。
15:02
So to get at it,
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因此要得到其中的石油，
15:04
you first have to get rid of the trees.
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首先要去除那些树木。
15:07
Then, you rip off the topsoil
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然后再移除上层土壤
15:09
and get at that oily sand.
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并得到富含石油的沙粒。
15:12
The process requires a huge amount of water,
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这一过程需要大量的水，
15:15
which is then pumped into massive toxic tailing ponds.
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然后废水被排入大型的有毒矿渣坑。
15:19
That's very bad news for local indigenous people
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这对居住在下游的当地土著居民来说
15:22
living downstream
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是个坏消息，
15:24
who are reporting alarmingly high cancer rates.
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他们有很高的癌症发病率。
15:27
Now looking at these images,
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现在来看看这些图片，
15:29
it's difficult to grasp the scale of this operation,
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很难了解这种作业的规模，
15:32
which can already be seen from space
388
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这已经可以从太空中看到
15:35
and could grow to an area the size of England.
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并扩展为英格兰大小的区域。
15:38
I find it helps actually
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我发现看看那些运送泥土的
15:40
to look at the dump trucks that move the earth,
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有史以来最大的自动倾卸卡车，
15:42
the largest ever built.
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能帮助了解其规模。
15:44
That's a person down there by the wheel.
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轮子下面是一个人。
15:46
My point is that
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我的观点是
15:48
this is not oil drilling.
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这不是石油开采，
15:50
It's not even mining.
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甚至不是采矿。
15:52
It is terrestrial skinning.
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这是在破坏地表。
15:54
Vast, vivid landscapes
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大量的富有生气的风景
15:56
are being gutted,
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被摧毁，
15:58
left monochromatic gray.
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留下单调的灰色。
16:00
Now I should confess that as [far as] I'm concerned
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现在，我应该承认，在我看来
16:03
this would be an abomination
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这是令人厌恶的，
16:05
if it emitted not one particle of carbon.
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即使它不会有任何碳排放。
16:07
But the truth is that, on average,
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但事实是，平均来说
16:10
turning that gunk into crude oil
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把这黏糊糊的东西变成原油
16:13
produces about three times more greenhouse gas pollution
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会产生比加拿大常规的产油方式
16:16
than it does to produce conventional oil
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三倍以上的温室气体
16:18
in Canada.
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排放。
16:20
How else to describe this,
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不然怎么解释这些，
16:22
but as a form of mass insanity?
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只是一种集体疯狂的方式吗？
16:25
Just when we know we need to be learning
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当我们知道我们需要学习
16:28
to live on the surface of our planet,
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如何居住在我们地球的表面，
16:30
off the power of sun, wind and waves,
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依赖于太阳、风和潮汐的能量时，
16:33
we are frantically digging
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我们正疯狂的挖掘，
16:35
to get at the dirtiest,
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为了得到可想象到的最肮脏
16:37
highest-emitting stuff imaginable.
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最具污染性的东西。
16:40
This is where our story of endless growth
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这就是我们无尽成长的故事
16:42
has taken us,
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带我们所到的地方，
16:44
to this black hole at the center of my country --
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我的国家中心的这个黑洞 --
16:47
a place of such planetary pain
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我们地球的伤痛
16:49
that, like the BP gusher,
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如英石油公司的石油泄漏，
16:51
one can only stand to look at it for so long.
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我们只能站在一旁长久的观看。
16:55
As Jared Diamond and others have shown us,
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如贾德‧戴蒙（Jared Diamond）和其他人展示给我们的，
16:58
this is how civilizations commit suicide,
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这就是文明如何走向自我毁灭，
17:01
by slamming their foot on the accelerator
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在应该踩刹车
17:04
at the exact moment
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的时候
17:06
when they should be putting on the brakes.
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自己却猛踩油门。
17:08
The problem is that our master-narrative
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问题是我们的主流舆论
17:11
has an answer for that too.
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已经对此有了答案。
17:13
At the very last minute, we are going to get saved
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在最后一刻，我们会得到拯救，
17:16
just like in every Hollywood movie,
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就像每个好莱坞电影中那样，
17:18
just like in the Rapture.
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就像电影全神贯注（the Rapture）中那样。
17:21
But, of course, our secular religion is technology.
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当然，我们世俗的信仰是科技。
17:24
Now, you may have noticed
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现在你也许已经注意到
17:27
more and more headlines like these.
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越来越多的这类头条新闻。
17:29
The idea behind this form of "geoengineering" as it's called,
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这种被称为地球工程学的背后的观点
17:32
is that, as the planet heats up,
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是，当地球变暖问题上升时，
17:34
we may be able to shoot sulfates and aluminum particles
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我们应该能发射硫酸盐和铝粒子
17:37
into the stratosphere
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至同温层
17:39
to reflect some of the sun's rays
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并把一些太阳光
17:41
back to space,
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反射回太空，
17:43
thereby cooling the planet.
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以此降低地球的温度。
17:46
The wackiest plan -- and I'm not making this up --
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最疯狂的计划是 -- 这不是我瞎编的 --
17:48
would put what is essentially a garden hose
444
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将一根橡胶软管放入
17:51
18-and-a-half miles high into the sky,
445
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3000
十八点五英里长的高空，
17:54
suspended by balloons,
446
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由气球支撑，
17:56
to spew sulfur dioxide.
447
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用于排放二氧化硫。
17:58
So, solving the problem of pollution with more pollution.
448
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这样是用更多的污染来解决污染问题。
18:01
Think of it as the ultimate junk shot.
449
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把这看作终极垃圾弹。
18:05
The serious scientists involved in this research
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这项研究中的严肃的科学家们
18:07
all stress that these techniques
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都强调这些技术还
18:09
are entirely untested.
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完全没有经过测试。
18:11
They don't know if they'll work,
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他们不知道这是否能起作用，
18:13
and they have no idea
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并且他们也不知道
18:15
what kind of terrifying side effects they could unleash.
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这会产生什么样可怕的副作用。
18:18
Nevertheless, the mere mention of geoengineering
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尽管如此，在某些圈子里一提到
18:21
is being greeted in some circles,
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地球工程学就会获得欢呼 --
18:23
particularly media circles,
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尤其是媒体圈 --
18:25
with a relief tinged with euphoria.
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如释重负似的，还带着陶醉感。
18:27
An escape hatch has been reached.
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我们已经找到一个逃脱方案，
18:29
A new frontier has been found.
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也发现了一个新的领域。
18:31
Most importantly,
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更重要的是，
18:33
we don't have to change our lifestyles after all.
463
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毕竟我们不需要改变我们的生活方式了。
18:35
You see, for some people,
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对一些人来说，
18:37
their savior is a guy in a flowing robe.
465
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他们的救世主穿着飘逸的长袍。
18:39
For other people, it's a guy with a garden hose.
466
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对另一些人而言，他们的救世主则手握着橡皮软管。
18:43
We badly need some new stories.
467
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我们极度需要些新的故事。
18:46
We need stories that have different kinds of heroes
468
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我们需要各种各样的英雄故事
18:49
willing to take different kinds of risks --
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这些英雄愿意承担不同类型的风险 --
18:52
risks that confront recklessness head on,
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能够不计后果地应对风险，
18:54
that put the precautionary principle into practice,
471
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并能把预防原则带入实践之中，
18:57
even if that means through direct action --
472
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即使这要通过直接行动 --
19:00
like hundreds of young people willing to get arrested,
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比如数百个年轻人由于
19:02
blocking dirty power plants
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围堵高污染电厂或
19:04
or fighting mountaintop-removal coal mining.
475
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反对山顶开采煤矿而被逮捕。
19:07
We need stories
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我们需要这些故事，
19:09
that replace that linear narrative of endless growth
477
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它们能用循环叙事来代替
19:12
with circular narratives
478
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无尽成长的线性叙事，
19:14
that remind us
479
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这提醒我们
19:16
that what goes around comes around.
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种什么因，得什么果，
19:18
That this is our only home.
481
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地球是我们唯一的家园；
19:20
There is no escape hatch.
482
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没有什么逃脱方案。
19:22
Call it karma, call it physics,
483
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称之为因果报应也好，称之为自然哲学也好，
19:25
action and reaction, call it precaution --
484
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作用与反作用，称之为预防：
19:28
the principle that reminds us
485
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这一原则提醒我们
19:30
that life is too precious to be risked
486
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生命太珍贵了，不能拿它冒险
19:32
for any profit.
487
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来换取任何利益。
19:34
Thank you.
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谢谢大家。
19:36
(Applause)
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（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Naomi Klein - Journalist, activistNaomi Klein is a public intellectual, journalist and activist.
Why you should listen
In her first book, No Logo: Taking Aim at the Brand Bullies, Naomi Klein made a strong case against the takeover of public life by global corporations and brands. She ended that pre-internet essay suggesting as a counterpoint that everyone could become their own "personal brand." In her most recent book, No Is Not Enough: Resisting Trump's Shock Politics and Winning the World We Need, she analyzes how social media has made the idea of personal branding commonplace -- and how it helped Donald Trump become the first brand-president.
Klein's other books The Shock Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Capitalism and This Changes Everything: Capitalism vs. The Climate have also energized the global conversation. Klein is a board member of climate-action group 350.org and one of the organizers of Canada’s Leap Manifesto, and in 2015 she helped launch Pope Francis’s historic encyclical on ecology. In 2016, she received the Sydney Peace Prize for "inspiring us to stand up locally, nationally and internationally to demand a new agenda for sharing the planet that respects human rights and equality."
Naomi Klein | Speaker | TED.com