TED2012
T. Boone Pickens: Let's transform energy -- with natural gas
T.Boone Pickens：能源改革—天然气
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美国消耗着世界25%的石油，然而能源巨头T. Boone Pickens却指出，美国没有任何能源方面的政策可以顺应这必然的趋势。是否会有别的能源能够引领我们走向无石油的未来？在风能投资15亿美金打水漂之后，Pickens觉得替代性能源不是解决之道，这尚未成熟。那么我们要如何度过非石油的未来？天然气。讲座后，让我们来观看与TED策展人Chris Anderson的现场问与答。
T. Boone Pickens - Entrepreneur and energy theorist
A legendary oil and gas entrepreneur, T. Boone Pickens is now on a mission to enhance U.S. energy policies to lessen the nation’s dependence on OPEC oil. Full bio
A legendary oil and gas entrepreneur, T. Boone Pickens is now on a mission to enhance U.S. energy policies to lessen the nation’s dependence on OPEC oil. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
I'm a believer.
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我是个信徒
00:17
I'm a believer in global warming,
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我相信全球气候变暖
00:19
and my record is good
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在这个学科上
00:21
on the subject.
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我成绩很好
00:23
But my subject
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但我要谈论的议题
00:25
is national security.
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是国家安全
00:27
We have to get off of oil purchased
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我们必须停止向敌人
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from the enemy.
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购买石油
00:32
I'm talking about OPEC oil.
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我说的是向石油输出国家组织购买石油
00:34
And let me take you back
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现在让我把你们带回
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100 years
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100年前
00:38
to 1912.
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到1912年
00:41
You're probably thinking that was my birth year.
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各位可能觉得是我出生的那年
00:44
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
00:46
It wasn't. It was 1928.
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其实不是，我出生于1928年
00:49
But go back to 1912,
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但是回到1912年
00:51
100 years ago,
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100年前
00:53
and look at that point
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看看那时
00:55
what we, our country, was faced with.
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我们，我们的国家面临的是什么情况
00:58
It's the same energy question
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和今天我们面临的问题
01:00
that you're looking at today,
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相同
01:02
but it's different sources of fuel.
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只是不同的燃料而已
01:05
A hundred years ago
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100年前
01:07
we were looking at coal, of course,
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当然，我们关注的是煤
01:09
and we were looking at whale oil
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我们关注的是鲸脂油
01:11
and we were looking at crude oil.
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还有原油
01:14
At that point,
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那个时候
01:16
we were looking for a fuel
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我们在寻找一种燃料
01:18
that was cleaner,
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更清洁
01:20
it was cheaper,
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更便宜
01:22
and it wasn't ours though,
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但是它不是我们的
01:25
it was theirs.
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是石油输出国家组织的
01:27
So at that point, 1912,
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在当时的1912年
01:30
we selected crude oil over whale oil
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我们选择了原油而非鲸脂油
01:33
and some more coal.
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和煤
01:36
But as we moved on
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但是我们接着看
01:38
to the period now, 100 years later,
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到如今，也就是100年后
01:41
we're back really
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我们还是回到了
01:43
at another decision point.
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另外一个抉择点
01:45
What is the decision point?
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我们的抉择点是什么呢
01:47
It's what we're going to use
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是将来
01:49
in the future.
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我们又要用什么燃料
01:51
So from here,
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所以现在
01:53
it's pretty clear to me,
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我很清楚
01:55
we would prefer to have
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我们宁愿选择
01:57
cleaner, cheaper,
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更清洁的 更环保的
01:59
domestic, ours --
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国内的 我们自己的-
02:02
and we have that, we have that --
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我们拥有的
02:05
which is natural gas.
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那就是天然气
02:07
So here you are,
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再看看这里
02:09
that the cost of all this to the world
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世界石油的总消耗
02:13
is 89 million barrels of oil,
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八千九百万桶
02:16
give or take a few barrels, every day.
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这基本上还是每天的用量
02:18
And the cost annually
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而且年消耗
02:20
is three trillion dollars.
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足足有三万亿美金
02:23
And one trillion of that
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其中有一万亿美金
02:25
goes to OPEC.
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付给了石油输出国家组织
02:27
That has got to be stopped.
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绝对不能再这样下去
02:30
Now if you look at the cost of OPEC,
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如果我们看看石油输出国组织的成本
02:33
it cost seven trillion dollars --
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是七万亿美金
02:36
on the Milken Institute study last year --
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根据梅肯研究院去年的研究
02:38
seven trillion dollars
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自1976年来
02:40
since 1976,
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七万亿美金
02:42
is what we paid for oil from OPEC.
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是我们向石油输出国组织所付的钱
02:45
Now that includes the cost of military
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这包含军事
02:47
and the cost of the fuel both.
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燃料两种成本
02:50
But it's the greatest transfer of wealth,
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这是人类历史上
02:55
from one group to another
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从一个组织到另一个组织的
02:57
in the history of mankind.
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最大的财富转移
02:59
And it continues.
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而且还将继续
03:01
Now when you look
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当你在寻找
03:03
at where is the transfer of wealth,
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是在哪里进行的财富转移时
03:05
you can see here
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你看看这里
03:07
that we have the arrows
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这儿有个箭头表示
03:10
going into the Mid-East
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从我们这里
03:12
and away from us.
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指向中东读取
03:14
And with that,
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根据这个
03:16
we have found ourselves
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我们发现我们是
03:18
to be the world's policemen.
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世界的保卫者
03:20
We are policing the world,
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我们保卫着这个世界
03:22
and how are we doing that?
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我们是怎么做到的呢
03:25
I know the response to this.
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我知道我们是如何做的
03:29
I would bet there aren't 10 percent of you in the room
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我敢打赌在座不会有超过百分之十的人
03:33
that know how many aircraft carriers there are in the world.
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知道全世界上有几架航空母舰
03:38
Raise your hand if you think you know.
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如果你知道的话请举手
03:41
There are 12.
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一共有12架
03:43
One is under construction by the Chinese
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一架在中国正在建设中
03:45
and the other 11 belong to us.
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另外有11架属于我们
03:48
Why do we have 11 aircraft carriers?
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为什么我们有11架航空母舰呢
03:52
Do we have a corner on the market?
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我们垄断市场了吗？
03:55
Are we smarter than anybody else? I'm not sure.
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我们比别人都要聪明吗？我不这么认为
03:58
If you look at where they're located --
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我们看看这些航空母舰在哪就知道了
04:00
and on this slide it's the red blobs on there --
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在这张幻灯片上有五个红色地方标记出来了
04:03
there are five that are operating in the Mid-East,
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有五架在中东运行
04:07
and the rest of them are in the United States.
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剩下的在美国
04:10
They just move back to the Mid-East and those come back.
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五架是刚派遣过去的，这些是刚回来的
04:13
So actually most of the 11 we have
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所以实际上我们拥有的11架的大部分
04:16
are tied up in the Mid-East.
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被牢牢捆绑在中东
04:19
Why? Why are they in the Mid-East?
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为什么？为什么会在中东呢？
04:22
They're there to control,
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它们需要在那里控制着
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keep the shipping lanes open
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保持着航运通道的畅通无阻
04:26
and make oil available.
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同时使石油可以被我们买到
04:28
And the United States uses about 20 million barrels a day,
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其中美国一天使用两千万桶
04:32
which is about 25 percent of all the oil used
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这是世界每天石油消耗总量的
04:36
everyday in the world.
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25%
04:39
And we're doing it with four percent of the population.
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而且还需要动用4%的人口
04:42
Somehow that doesn't seem right.
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然而这却不一定正确的做法
04:45
That's not sustainable.
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这并不是长远之计
04:47
So where do we go from here?
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所以我们要怎么办呢?
04:49
Does that continue?
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那会持续下去?
04:51
Yes, it's going to continue.
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对，还是会持续下去
04:53
The slide you're looking at here
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我们看的这张幻灯片是
04:55
is 1990 to 2040.
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1990年到2040年
04:57
Over that period
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在这期间
04:59
you are going to double your demand.
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石油的需要量将会加倍
05:02
And when you look at what we're using the oil for,
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来看看我们用石油干什么
05:05
70 percent of it
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其中的70%
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is used for transportation fuel.
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是用作交通
05:09
So when somebody says,
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所以当有的人主张
05:11
"Let's go more nuclear,
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让我们使用核能吧
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let's go wind, let's go solar,"
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让我们使用风能，使用太阳能
05:16
fine; I'm for anything American,
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无所谓，只要是美国的自己的东西我都无所谓
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anything American.
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只要是美国自己的
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But if you're going to do anything
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但是如果是以
05:23
about the dependency on foreign oil,
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国外石油为基础的话
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you have to address transportation.
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就必须要解决运输燃料的问题
05:28
So here we are
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所以我们现在
05:30
using 20 million barrels a day --
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每天用着两千万桶
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producing eight, importing 12,
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自己生产八万桶 进口十二万桶
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and from the 12,
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这十二万桶中
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five comes from OPEC.
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五万桶来自于石油输出国家组织
05:43
When you look at the biggest user and the second largest user,
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现在我们看看世界最大的石油国家和第二大国家
05:46
we use 20 million barrels
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我们用两千万桶
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and the Chinese use 10.
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中国用一千万桶
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The Chinese have a little bit better plan --
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中国还有个稍微好点的规划
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or they have a plan;
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或者至少他们有个计划
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we have no plan.
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而我们没有
05:58
In the history of America,
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在美国的历史上
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we've never had an energy plan.
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我们从没有过任何能源计划
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We don't even realize the resources
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我们甚至没有意识到
06:04
that we have available to us.
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我们可以用的资源
06:06
If you take the last 10 years
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如果拿过去十年
06:08
and bring forward,
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来看的话
06:10
you've transferred to OPEC a trillion dollars.
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我们已经付给石油输出国家组织一万亿美元
06:14
If you go forward the next 10 years
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如果再往前推10年的话
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and cap the price of oil at 100 dollars a barrel,
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且石油价格以每桶100美元计算
06:20
you will pay 2.2 trillion.
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将支付2.2万亿美元
06:23
That's not sustainable either.
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这同样是不可持续的
06:25
But the days of cheap oil are over.
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廉价石油的日子已经结束了
06:28
They're over.
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已经结束了
06:30
They make it very clear to you,
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石油输出国家组织已经很清楚地向我们表示
06:33
the Saudis do,
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沙特阿拉伯人表示得很清楚
06:36
they have to have 94 dollars a barrel
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他们必须要以94美元一桶的价钱卖
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to make their social commitments.
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来实现他们的社会承诺
06:41
Now I had people in Washington last week told me,
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上个星期我华盛顿的朋友告诉我
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he said, "The Saudis can produce the oil
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“沙特人生产石油的
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for five dollars a barrel.
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成本是五美元
06:50
That has nothing to do with it.
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我们没有任何办法
06:52
It's what they have to pay for
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这就意味着不管他们需要我们为石油付多少
06:54
is what we are going to pay for oil."
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我们都必须支付”
06:56
There is no free market for oil.
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石油没有所谓的自由市场
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The oil is priced off the margin.
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油价是以利润定价
07:00
And the OPEC nations
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是石油输出国家组织
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are the ones that price the oil.
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给石油定价
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So where are we headed from here?
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那么当下我们应该怎么做呢?
07:08
We're headed to natural gas.
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我们必须使用天然气
07:11
Natural gas will do everything
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天然气能够实现一切
07:13
we want it to do.
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我们希望它实现的
07:15
It's 130 octane fuel.
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天然气是130辛烷值燃料
07:18
It's 25 percent cleaner than oil.
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它比石油清洁25%
07:21
It's ours, we have an abundance of it.
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它是我们的 我们有丰富的储藏
07:24
And it does not require a refinery.
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而且制造也不需要提炼厂
07:27
It comes out of the ground at 130 octane.
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从地底开采出来就已经是130辛烷值了
07:29
Run it through the separator and you're ready to use it.
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通过分离器后就可以使用了
07:32
It's going to be very simple for us to use.
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它使用起来将会很简单
07:35
It's going to be simple to accomplish this.
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很简单就能实现
07:37
You're going to find, and I'll tell you in just a minute,
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你们即将发现 我稍后会告诉你们
07:39
what you're looking for to make it happen.
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你们期望得到的答案
07:42
But here you can look at the list.
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不过现在你们可以看看这个列表
07:45
Natural gas will fit all of those.
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天然气符合这里所有的条件
07:48
It will replace or be able to be used for that.
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它可以取代或作为可适用性燃料
07:52
It's for power generation, transportation,
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它可以用来发电 用来运输
07:54
it's peaking fuel, it's all those.
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它是很尖端的燃料 这都是它的优势
07:57
Do we have enough natural gas?
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那么我们有足够的天然气吗
08:00
Look at the bar on the left. It's 24 trillion.
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看看左边的方块 这是24万亿
08:03
It's what we use a year.
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是我们一年的用量
08:05
Go forward
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再接下来
08:07
and the estimates that you have
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看看美国能源信息署的
08:09
from the EIA and onto the industry estimates --
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对工业用的估计——
08:13
the industry knows what they're talking about --
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工业行十分清楚自己在讲什么——
08:15
we've got 4,000 trillion cubic feet
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我们有4000万亿立方英尺的
08:18
of natural gas that's available to us.
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可以使用的天然气
08:20
How does that translate
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这可以换算成
08:22
to barrels of oil equivalent?
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多少桶原油呢?
08:24
It would be three times
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它将会是
08:26
what the Saudis claim they have.
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沙特阿拉伯人宣称他们有的三倍
08:28
And they claim they have 250 billion barrels of oil,
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他们宣称他们有两千五百亿桶石油
08:31
which I do not believe.
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反正我不相信
08:33
I think it's probably 175 billion barrels.
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我猜可能有一千七百五十亿桶
08:38
But anyway, whether they say they're right or whatever,
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但是不管他们说的正确与否
08:41
we have plenty of natural gas.
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我们有相当数量的天然气
08:43
So I have tried to target
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所以我的着眼点
08:45
on where we use the natural gas.
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在于天然气的应用方向
08:47
And where I've targeted
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而且我的目标
08:49
is on the heavy-duty trucks.
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是耐重型的卡车
08:51
There are eight million of them.
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现在有八百万卡车
08:53
You take eight million trucks --
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你们可以用这八百万辆卡车
08:55
these are 18-wheelers --
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这些18个轮子的卡车--
08:57
and take them to natural gas,
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去采天然气
08:59
reduce carbon by 30 percent,
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可以减少30%的二氧化碳
09:02
it is cheaper
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这也会更便宜
09:04
and it will cut our imports
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而且会减少进口
09:07
three million barrels.
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三百万桶石油之多
09:09
So you will cut 60 percent off of OPEC
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这样一来 就可以用八百万辆卡车
09:12
with eight million trucks.
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减少60%从是石油输出国组织进口石油
09:14
There are 250 million vehicles in America.
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美国有二亿五千万辆小汽车
09:17
So what you have
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所以我们拥有的
09:19
is natural gas is the bridge fuel,
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天然气是衔接燃料
09:22
is the way I see it.
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我是这么认为
09:24
I don't have to worry
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在我这个年纪 我没必要担心
09:26
about the bridge to where at my age.
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天然气衔接到哪种燃料
09:29
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
09:31
That's your concern.
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这是你们要担心的问题
09:34
But when you look at the natural gas we have
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然而 我们拥有的天然气
09:36
it could very well be
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将会是非常好的
09:38
the bridge to natural gas,
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未来衔接燃料
09:40
because you have plenty of natural gas.
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因为它的储藏量丰富
09:43
But as I said, I'm for anything American.
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但是正如我所说, 任何美国自己的东西我都接受
09:46
Now let me take you -- I've been a realist --
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现在让我带你们--我曾是个现实主义者
09:49
I went from theorist early to realist.
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我从以前的理论家变成现实主义者
09:51
I'm back to theorist again.
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现在我又是理论家了
09:53
If you look at the world,
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看看这个世界
09:56
you have methane hydrates in the ocean
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各个大洲周围都有
09:59
around every continent.
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甲烷水合物
10:01
And here you can see methane,
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甲烷随处可见
10:04
if that's the way you're going to go,
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假使要应用甲烷水合物
10:06
that there's plenty of methane --
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那么那是相当充足的燃料
10:08
natural gas is methane,
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天然气就是甲烷
10:10
methane and natural gas are interchangeable --
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天然气和甲烷是可以相互转换的
10:12
but if you decide
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但是如果你们决定
10:14
that you're going to use some methane --
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你们就要用甲烷作为未来的能源
10:16
and I'm gone, so it's up to you --
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我已经不在人世，所以决定权在你们
10:18
but we do have
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不过我们确实有
10:20
plenty of methane hydrates.
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相当丰富的甲烷化合物
10:23
So I think I've made my point
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所以 我想我的论点已经很清楚了
10:26
that we have to get on our own resources in America.
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我们要用我们美国自己的资源
10:31
If we do --
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如果这样的话
10:34
it's costing us a billion dollars a day for oil.
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就即将消耗每天十亿美元的石油
10:37
And yet, we have no energy plan.
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而且 我们没有任何能源计划
10:40
So there's nothing going on
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所以政府对能源作的规划
10:43
that impresses me
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一点也
10:46
in Washington on that plan,
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没有吸引我
10:49
other than I'm trying to focus
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除了我关注的
10:51
on that eight million 18-wheelers.
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18个轮子的八百万辆卡车
10:54
If we could do that,
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如果我们能够这么做的话
10:56
I think we would take our first step
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那么我认为我们即将开始我们能源计划的
10:58
to an energy plan.
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第一步
11:00
If we did, we could see
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如果我们可以的话，我们就能看到
11:02
that our own resources are easier to use
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我们自己的资源比
11:05
than anybody can imagine.
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任何人想象的都要方便使用
11:07
Thank you.
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谢谢
11:09
(Applause)
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(掌声)
11:17
Chris Anderson: Thanks for that.
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Chris Anderson: 谢谢您的演讲
11:19
So from your point of view,
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那么从您的观点来看
11:21
you had this great Pickens Plan
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你有宏伟的Pickens计划
11:23
that was based on wind energy,
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这个计划是以风能为基础的
11:26
and you abandoned it basically
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而且你摈弃了它主要是
11:28
because the economics changed.
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因为经济形势发生了变化
11:30
What happened?
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发生了什么?
11:32
TBP: I lost 150 million dollars.
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TBP: 我损失了一亿五千万美元
11:34
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
11:36
That'll make you abandon something.
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这就使得我们必须要抛弃某些东西
11:39
No, what happened to us, Chris,
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而且，我们遭遇的是，Chiris,
11:42
is that power, it's priced off the margin.
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以利润作为原则改变了我们的计划
11:48
And so the margin is natural gas.
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而利润就是天然气
11:51
And at the time I went into the wind business,
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而且当时我们正投资风能产业
11:53
natural gas was nine dollars.
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天然气是九美金
11:55
Today it's two dollars and forty cents.
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现在是2.4美元
11:58
You cannot do a wind deal
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你不能用
12:00
under six dollars an MCF.
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低于每千立方英尺六美金的价格做风能生意
12:02
CA: So what happened was
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CA:所以实际上是
12:04
that, through increased ability
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因为透过
12:08
to use fracking technology,
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水力压裂科技的发展
12:10
the calculated reserves of natural gas kind of exploded
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天然气的估计储备粮激增
12:13
and the price plummeted,
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加上价格的暴跌
12:16
which made wind uncompetitive.
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使得风能时期竞争力
12:18
In a nutshell that's what happened?
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总结起来就是那样吗?
12:20
TBP: That's what happened.
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TBP: 对，就是那样
12:22
We found out that we could go to the source rock,
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我们发现水利压裂技术可以用在生油岩
12:24
which were the carboniferous shales in the basins.
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也就是石炭系页岩盆地
12:27
The first one was Barnett Shale in Texas
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第一个是德州的巴纳特页岩
12:30
and then the Marcellus up in the Northeast
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接着是东北片区的包括纽约,宾州,西维吉尼亚的
12:33
across New York, Pennsylvania, West Virginia;
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马塞勒斯页岩
12:36
and Haynesville in Louisiana.
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以及在路易斯安那州的海纳斯维尔页岩
12:38
This stuff is everywhere.
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页岩到处都是
12:40
We are overwhelmed with natural gas.
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天然气多到让我们欣喜若狂
12:42
CA: And now you're a big investor in that and bringing that to market?
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CA: 现在你在这方面是个很大的投资者而且准备投入市场?
12:46
TBP: Well you say a big investor.
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TBP: 你说对了，是个大的投资者
12:48
It's my life.
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这就是我的人生
12:50
I'm a geologist, got out of school in '51,
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我是个地质学家，1951年从学校毕业
12:52
and I've been in the industry my entire life.
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我的一生都投入了这个产业
12:54
Now I do own stocks.
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现在我有自己的股份
12:57
I'm not a big natural gas producer.
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但我并不是一个大的天然气厂商
13:00
Somebody the other day said
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过去有人说
13:02
I was the second largest natural gas producer in the United States.
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我是美国第二大天然气生产商
13:04
Don't I wish.
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我也希望是这样
13:06
But no, I'm not. I own stocks.
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但我并不是 我只是持有股权
13:09
But I also am in the fueling business.
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我也涉足燃料产业
13:12
CA: But natural gas is a fossil fuel.
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CA:但天然气是种化石燃料
13:15
You burn it,
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你燃烧它
13:17
you release CO2.
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那么你就释放了CO2
13:19
So you believe in the threat of climate change.
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既然你相信气候变暖
13:23
Why doesn't that prospect
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为何你不担心
13:25
concern you?
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这方面产生的问题呢?
13:27
TBP: Well you're going to have to use something.
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TBP: 但是你必须要燃烧某些东西
13:30
What do you have to replace it?
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你有什么可以替代它呢？
13:34
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
13:39
CA: No, no. The argument that it's a bridge fuel makes sense,
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CA: 不，不，争论在于我们未来的燃料
13:42
because the amount of CO2 per unit of energy
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因为每单元能量的CO2的排放量
13:46
is lower than oil and coal, correct?
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比石油和煤少，对吧？
13:49
And so everyone can be at least happy
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因此 基于这点 大家至少会欣然接受
13:52
to see a shift from coal or oil to natural gas.
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从煤或石油到天然气的转变
13:55
But if that's it
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但是如果仅仅因为这个原因
13:57
and that becomes the reason
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而且因为这样
13:59
that renewables don't get invested in,
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使得可再生能源得不到投资
14:02
then, long-term, we're screwed anyway, right?
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那么 长期下来 我们都会完蛋的 不是吗?
14:05
TBP: Well I'm not ready to give up,
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TBP: 我再补充下
14:07
but Jim and I talked
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Jim走时
14:09
there as he left,
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我跟他有过交谈
14:11
and I said, "How do you feel about natural gas?"
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我问道 你对天然气是怎么看的?
14:13
And he said, "Well it's a bridge fuel, is what it is."
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他回答说 它是通向未来的衔接燃料 就这样
14:16
And I said, "Bridge to what?
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我接着问 我们未来的燃料是什么
14:18
Where are we headed?"
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我们的目标在哪
14:20
See but again, I told you, I don't have to worry with that.
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看吧 正如我说过的，我不用担心这个问题
14:22
You all do.
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这应该是你们担心的问题
14:24
CA: But I don't think that's right, Boone.
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CA: Boone 但是我不认为这是对的
14:26
I think you're a person who believes in your legacy.
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我认为你是个为后代树立典范的人
14:29
You've made the money you need.
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你已经赚到了你需要的钱
14:31
You're one of the few people in a position
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你是极少数
14:34
to really swing the debate.
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能够影响走向的有力人士
14:37
Do you support the idea of some kind of price on carbon?
340
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你支持关于碳的使用必然有代价的想法吗？
14:40
Does that make sense?
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你认为有意义吗？
14:42
TBP: I don't like that
342
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TBP:我不喜欢
14:44
because it ends up the government is going to run the program.
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因为最终是政府来执行这个项目
14:47
I can tell you it will be a failure.
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我可以告诉你这必定以失败告终
14:49
The government is not successful
345
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政府在这些事情上
14:52
on these things.
346
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不大成功
14:54
They just aren't, it's a bad deal.
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它们就是无法办到 那是个坏主意
14:57
Look at Solyndra, or whatever it was.
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看看索林卓太阳能公司吧，或者不管是什么
15:00
I mean, that was told to be a bad idea 10 times,
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我的意思是，已经注定了会是个坏主意
15:02
they went ahead and did it anyway.
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他们不管怎样还是执行
15:04
But that only blew out 500 million.
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结果就是浪费了5亿美元
15:07
I think it's closer to a billion.
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我认为接近十亿美元
15:10
But Chris, I think where we're headed,
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但是Chris, 我认为
15:13
the long-term,
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长期来说
15:16
I don't mind going back to nuclear.
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可以采用核能
15:18
And I can tell you what the last page
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我可以告诉你们
15:20
of the report that will take them five years to write
357
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它们花上5年时间所撰写的核能报告的最后一页
15:22
will be.
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内容是什么
15:24
One, don't build a reformer on a fault.
359
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首先，不要在断层带上建造重组器
15:27
(Laughter)
360
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(笑声)
15:29
And number two,
361
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其次
15:31
do not build a reformer on the ocean.
362
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不要在海洋中建造重组器
15:34
And now I think reformers are safe.
363
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这样一来 我认为重组器就很安全了
15:37
Move them inland
364
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把它们移向陆地
15:39
and on very stable ground
365
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在相当稳定的土地上
15:43
and build the reformers.
366
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建造重组器
15:45
There isn't anything wrong with nuke.
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核能并没有什么错
15:47
You're going to have to have energy. There is no question.
368
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我们必须要有能源，这毋庸置疑
15:49
You can't -- okay.
369
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没有办法不用能源
15:51
CA: One of the questions from the audience
370
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CA：有一个问题是观众提出来的
15:54
is, with fracking and the natural gas process,
371
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是，随着水力压裂技术的发展和天然气使用的过程中
15:57
what about the problem of methane leaking from that,
372
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那么甲烷的泄漏问题怎么解决
16:00
methane being a worse global warming gas
373
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而且甲烷会是个
16:02
than CO2?
374
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比CO2更严重的问题?
16:04
Is that a concern?
375
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难道不用担心这点吗?
16:06
TBP: Fracking? What is fracking?
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TBP: 水力鸭子? 什么是水力鸭子?
16:08
CA: Fracking.
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CA: 水力压裂
16:11
TBP: I'm teasing.
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TBP: 开玩笑的
16:13
(Laughter)
379
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（笑声）
16:15
CA: We've got a little bit of accent incompatibility here, you know.
380
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CA: 你知道的 我们在发音上有些不一致
16:19
TBP: No, let me tell you,
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TBP: 听我说
16:21
I've told you what my age was.
382
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我已经告诉你们我多大了
16:23
I got out of school in '51.
383
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我1951年从学校毕业
16:25
I witnessed my first frack job
384
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1953年我第一次参与水力压裂钻井工程
16:27
at border Texas in 1953.
385
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在德克萨斯州的边界上
16:29
Fracking came out in '47,
386
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水力压裂技术发明在1947年
16:31
and don't believe for a minute
387
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我真不敢相信
16:33
when our president gets up there
388
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我们的总统到了那儿
16:35
and says the Department of Energy 30 years ago
389
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3000
说水力压裂技术是在30年前
16:38
developed fracking.
390
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由能源部发明的
16:40
I don't know what in the hell he's talking about.
391
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我真不知道他到底在瞎扯什么
16:43
I mean seriously, the Department of Energy
392
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我说真的, 那是能源部
16:45
did not have anything to do with fracking.
393
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不知道什么是水力压裂钻井技术
16:48
The first frack job was in '47.
394
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第一件水利压裂工程是在1947年
16:50
I saw my first one in '53.
395
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我第一次参与是在1953年
16:53
I've fracked over 3,000 wells in my life.
396
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我这一生已经水力压裂钻超过3000口井
16:56
Never had a problem
397
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从来没有
16:58
with messing up an aquifer or anything else.
398
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破坏过水层或者引发任何问题
17:00
Now the largest aquifer in North America
399
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现在北美最大的含水层
17:03
is from Midland, Texas to the South Dakota border,
400
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3000
是从德州的米德兰市到难达科塔州边界
17:06
across eight states --
401
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横贯了8个州
17:08
big aquifer:
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这片广大的含水层被称为
17:10
Ogallala, Triassic age.
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奥加拉拉含水层 形成于三叠纪
17:13
There had to have been 800,000 wells fracked
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在那片含水层中
17:16
in Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas
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奥克拉荷马州, 德州, 以及堪萨斯州已经有超过80万口天然气井
17:19
in that aquifer.
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是以水力压裂钻井
17:21
There's no problems.
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都没有出现过问题
17:23
I don't understand why
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我不理解为什么
17:25
the media is focused on Eastern Pennsylvania.
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媒体要聚焦在宾州东部
17:29
CA: All right, so you don't support a carbon tax of any kind
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CA: 好的 所以你不支持任何征收任何形式的碳税
17:32
or a price on carbon.
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或碳费
17:34
Your picture then I guess
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从你的蓝图中我猜是
17:37
of how the world eventually gets off fossil fuels
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世界最终摆脱化石燃料
17:39
is through innovation ultimately,
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是由创新来达成
17:42
that we'll someday make solar and nuclear cost competitive?
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也就意味着我们有一天会将太阳能与核能会发展到具有成本的竞争力吗?
17:47
TBP: Solar and wind, Jim and I agreed on that in 13 seconds.
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TBP: Jim和我在太阳能和风能仅仅只是认同了13秒左右的时间
17:51
That is, it's going to be a small part,
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那实在太小了
17:53
because you can't rely on it.
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因为那根本不可靠
17:55
CA: So how does the world get off fossil fuels?
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CA:那么整个世界到底如何摆脱化石燃料?
17:57
TBP: How do we get there?
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TBP: 我们如何摆脱?
17:59
We have so much natural gas,
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我们有丰富的天然气储量
18:01
a day will not come
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你们无所谓的
18:03
where you say, "Well let's don't use that anymore."
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"不再使用化石燃料"的那天是不会到来的
18:05
You'll keep using it. It is the cleanest of all.
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会一直使用 它是最清洁的能源
18:08
And if you look at California,
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看看加州
18:10
they use 2,500 buses.
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他们有2500辆巴士
18:12
LAMTA have been on natural gas
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洛杉矶大都会运输署采用天然气巴士
18:16
for 25 years.
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已经有25年了
18:18
The Ft. Worth T
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沃斯堡大众运输
18:20
has been on it for 25 years.
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采用天然气巴士也已经有25年了
18:22
Why? Air quality was the reason they used natural gas
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为什么? 维护空气品质是他们采用天然气
18:25
and got away from diesel.
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而不非柴油的原因
18:27
Why are all the trash trucks today in Southern California
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如今为何南加州全部的垃圾车都
18:29
on natural gas?
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采用天然气呢?
18:31
It's because of air quality.
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同样是为了维护空气品质
18:33
I know what you're telling me, and I'm not disagreeing with you.
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我理解你们在给我传达什么信息 同时我也不反对你们的观点
18:36
How in the hell can we get off the natural gas at some point?
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我们到底要如何摆脱天然气?
18:39
And I say, that is your problem.
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我的回答是那是你们应该解决的问题
18:42
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
18:44
CA: All right,
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CA:好吧
18:46
so it's the bridge fuel.
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天然气是作为衔接燃料的
18:48
What is at the other end of that bridge
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至于衔接到何处
18:50
is for this audience to figure out.
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是在座各位要解决的问题
18:52
If someone comes to you with a plan
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如果有人找到你们并向你们提出一个
18:54
that really looks like it might be part of this solution,
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看上去可能是解决方案的一部分
18:56
are you ready to invest in those technologies,
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你会投资那些技术
18:59
even if they aren't maximized for profits,
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即使那不是很有利润
19:01
they might be maximized for the future health of the planet?
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但可能会为地球生灵的未来福祉带来最大的利益吗?
19:04
TBP: I lost 150 million on the wind, okay.
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TBP:我在风能投资上损失了1亿5千万了
19:07
Yeah, sure, I'm game for it.
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所以 当然了 我还是会投资的
19:10
Because, again,
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原因我再说一次
19:13
I'm trying to get energy solved for America.
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我一直在试着解决美国的能源问题
19:17
And anything American
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只要是任何出自美国的东西
19:20
will work for me.
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我都认同
19:22
CA: Boone, I really, really appreciate you coming here,
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CA: Boone 我真的非常感谢你来到这
19:24
engaging in this conversation.
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来作这场演讲
19:26
I think there's a lot of people who will want to engage with you.
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我想很多人都想要和你交流
19:29
And that was a real gift you gave this audience.
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你给听众们的演说真的十分宝贵
19:31
Thank you so much. (TBP: You bet, Chris. Thank you.)
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非常感谢 (TBP: 不客气 谢谢)
19:34
(Applause)
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(掌声)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
T. Boone Pickens - Entrepreneur and energy theoristA legendary oil and gas entrepreneur, T. Boone Pickens is now on a mission to enhance U.S. energy policies to lessen the nation’s dependence on OPEC oil.
Why you should listen
T. Boone Pickens views America's dependence on OPEC oil as the greatest threat to the country's national security and economic well-being. In developing The Pickens Plan for America’s energy future, he's advocating for domestic alternatives and even greater new technologies. Pickens grew from humble beginnings in Depression-era Holdenville, Oklahoma, to be one of the nation’s most successful oil and gas entrepreneurs, and has been uncannily accurate in predicting oil and gas prices (CNBC coined him the “Oracle of Oil”) -- and he's established a very successful energy-oriented investment fund. Pickens is also an innovative, committed philanthropist who has donated nearly $1 billion to charity.
T. Boone Pickens | Speaker | TED.com