TED2010
Kirk Citron: And now, the real news
Kirk Citron：现在，真正的新闻
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今天的头条有多少会影响100年，1000年？Kirk Citron“长远新闻”项目收集那些不仅在今天有影响，而且还会影响几十年甚至几百年。在TED2010上，他指出最近的哪些头条消息对塑造未来具有潜在的影响
Kirk Citron - Media expert
Kirk Citron began his career as a fast-rising advertising executive, but now writes and provides media consultation for select non-profits. Full bio
Kirk Citron began his career as a fast-rising advertising executive, but now writes and provides media consultation for select non-profits. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
We are drowning in news.
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我们被新闻包围了
00:19
Reuters alone puts out
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路透社一年
00:21
three and a half million news stories a year.
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发布350万新闻故事
00:23
That's just one source.
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这仅仅只是一个发布源
00:26
My question is: How many of those stories
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我的问题是：
00:28
are actually going to matter in the long run?
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这些新闻到底有多少是长期有影响的
00:31
That's the idea behind The Long News.
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这就是“长远新闻”（Long News）的意义
00:34
It's a project by The Long Now Foundation,
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这是由Long Now基金会提出的一个项目
00:36
which was founded by TEDsters including
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基金会由TED成员建立的
00:38
Kevin Kelly and Stewart Brand.
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包括Kevin Kelly 和 Stewart Brand。
00:40
And what we're looking for is news stories that might still matter
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我们试图找出那些仍然会有深远影响的新闻故事
00:42
50 or 100 or 10,000 years from now.
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50， 100或者是一万年以后
00:46
And when you look at the news through that filter,
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我是说新闻进过上述条件过滤后
00:49
a lot falls by the wayside.
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很多都会落在一边
00:52
To take the top stories from the A.P. this last year,
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假设你已经找出去年美联社的头条
00:55
is this going to matter in a decade?
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这些头条在10年里内会有影响？
00:58
Or this?
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或者这个？
01:00
Or this?
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或者这个？
01:03
Really?
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真的会吗？
01:05
Is this going to matter in 50 or 100 years?
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会在50年或者100年内有影响吗
01:09
Okay, that was kind of cool.
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好的，这样就很酷了
01:11
(Laughter)
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（笑）
01:13
But the top story of this past year was the economy,
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但是去年的头条是经济
01:15
and I'm just betting that, sooner or later,
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而且我敢打赌迟早，
01:18
this particular recession is going to be old news.
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这个特殊经济不景气会成为旧闻
01:21
So, what kind of stories might
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那么，什么样的故事
01:23
make a difference for the future?
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可能对未来造成影响？
01:26
Well, let's take science.
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好的，让我们先看看科学
01:29
Someday, little robots will go
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某一天，迷你机器人
01:31
through our bloodstreams fixing things.
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能够在我们血液里面穿梭来修复受损
01:33
That someday is already here if you're a mouse.
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如果你是一个老鼠的这个某一天已经到来，
01:35
Some recent stories:
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几个最新的文章
01:37
nanobees zap tumors with real bee venom;
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纳米峰用真蜂毒液杀死肿瘤
01:40
they're sending genes into the brain;
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他们向人脑里面植入基因
01:43
a robot they built that can crawl through the human body.
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他们造的一个机器人可以在人体里爬行
01:47
What about resources? How are we going to feed nine billion people?
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资源呢？我们该怎么样满足90亿人的需求
01:50
We're having trouble feeding six billion today.
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我们现在连60亿人的肚子都填饱不了
01:53
As we heard yesterday, there's over a billion people hungry.
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昨天我们听到，有超过10人处于饥饿中
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Britain will starve without genetically modified crops.
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没有转基因作物，英国人会挨饿
02:00
Bill Gates, fortunately, has bet a billion on [agricultural] research.
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幸运的是比尔·盖茨投入10亿美元用于抗原研究
02:05
What about global politics?
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那么国际政治方面呢？
02:07
The world's going to be very different when and if China sets the agenda,
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这个世界会很不一样， 如果让中国设置议程
02:10
and they may.
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而他们有可能做到的
02:12
They've overtaken the U.S. as the world's biggest car market,
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他们已经超过美国成为世界上最大的汽车市场
02:15
they've overtaken Germany as the largest exporter,
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他们超过德国成为最大的出口国
02:19
and they've started doing DNA tests on kids
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他们已经开始在儿童身上做DNA测试
02:21
to choose their careers.
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来给他们选择职业
02:24
We're finding all kinds of ways to push back the limits of what we know.
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我们正在寻找各种方法推后我们知道的各种限制
02:27
Some recent discoveries:
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一些最近的发现
02:29
There's an ant colony from Argentina that has now
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有一个阿根廷的蚁群现在传播到了每一个大陆
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spread to every continent but Antarctica;
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除了南极洲
02:35
there's a self-directed robot scientist that's made a discovery --
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有一个自我导向的机器人科学家搞出了一个发明
02:38
soon, science may no longer need us,
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很快，科学可能不再需要我们
02:41
and life may no longer need us either;
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而且生活也不再需要我们
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a microbe wakes up after 120,000 years.
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一个微生物沉睡12万年之后复活
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It seems that with or without us,
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好像有没有我们
02:48
life will go on.
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生命都会继续
02:50
But my pick for the top Long News story of this past year
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但是我选择的去年的“长远新闻”
02:52
was this one: water found on the moon.
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是这一个，月亮上找到了水
02:55
Makes it a lot easier to put a colony up there.
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这使得人类在月亮上建立殖民地简单多了
02:58
And if NASA doesn't do it, China might,
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如果NASA不做这个，也许中国
03:00
or somebody in this room might write a big check.
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或者在做的某些人会签上一个巨额支票
03:03
My point is this:
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我的想表明的观点是
03:05
In the long run, some news stories
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长远来看，某些新闻故事
03:07
are more important than others.
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比其他的一些新闻更重要
03:09
(Applause)
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（鼓掌）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Kirk Citron - Media expertKirk Citron began his career as a fast-rising advertising executive, but now writes and provides media consultation for select non-profits.
Why you should listen
Kirk Citron seems to have an innate understanding of all things media. He began his career in advertising at Ogilvy & Mather in New York, but soon started his own agency with Matt Haligman. Citron Haligman Bedecarré landed major clients and was named Adweek’s West Agency of the Year. Citron then transformed the company into AKQA -- a digital advertising agency that has won awards on both sides of the Atlantic with offices around the world.
Today, Citron continues to write and innovate. He is the editor of The Long News, finding news stories that will continue to matter as many as a thousand years from today, and consults for a number of non-profit organizations. He is also the author of the play But Not For Lunch, which has been staged at theaters in Maine, Miami and Pennsylvania.
Kirk Citron | Speaker | TED.com