TED2012
James Hansen: Why I must speak out about climate change
詹姆斯．漢森：為何我必須談論氣候變遷
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頂尖的氣象學家詹姆斯．漢森提到一些他所參與過關於全球氣候變化的辯論故事，他在這些談論中概述了一個氣候變遷的鐵證，並且說明這些變遷使他對未來深感憂心。
James Hansen - Climatologist
James Hansen has made key insights into our global climate -- and inspired a generation of activists and scientists. Full bio
James Hansen has made key insights into our global climate -- and inspired a generation of activists and scientists. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
What do I know
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我到底知道些什麼
00:17
that would cause me,
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能讓我這個
00:19
a reticent, Midwestern scientist,
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沉默的中西部科學家
00:21
to get myself arrested
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在一次白宮的抗議中
00:24
in front of the White House protesting?
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被逮捕？
00:27
And what would you do
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如果你知道我所知道的事
00:29
if you knew what I know?
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你會怎麼做？
00:31
Let's start with how I got to this point.
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我們就從我如何開始關注這個議題開始吧
00:35
I was lucky to grow up
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我很慶幸能生長在
00:37
at a time when it was not difficult
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從輕易從佃農子弟
00:40
for the child of a tenant farmer
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一路讀到州立大學
00:42
to make his way to the state university.
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的年代
00:44
And I was really lucky
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並且很幸運地
00:47
to go to the University of Iowa
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能在愛荷華大學
00:49
where I could study under Professor James Van Allen
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詹姆斯．范．艾倫教授門下學習
00:52
who built instruments
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詹姆斯．范．艾倫教授曾參與
00:54
for the first U.S. satellites.
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美國第一顆衛星的建造
00:56
Professor Van Allen told me
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范．艾倫教授曾提過
00:59
about observations of Venus,
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他對於金星的觀察心得：
01:02
that there was intense microwave radiation.
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金星有強烈的微波幅射
01:04
Did it mean that Venus had an ionosphere?
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這代表金星有電離層嗎？
01:07
Or was Venus extremely hot?
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還是金星氣溫極高呢？
01:09
The right answer,
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正確答案是
01:11
confirmed by the Soviet Venera spacecraft,
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金星表面溫度極高
01:16
was that Venus was very hot --
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正如蘇聯的金星飛行器所證實
01:19
900 degrees Fahrenheit.
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金星的氣溫高達華氏900度
01:21
And it was kept hot
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且因一層厚厚的二氧化碳大氣層
01:23
by a thick carbon dioxide atmosphere.
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使得氣溫居高不下
01:26
I was fortunate to join NASA
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我很幸運能加入美國太空總署
01:28
and successfully propose
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並且獲准
01:30
an experiment to fly to Venus.
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前往金星進行實驗
01:32
Our instrument took this image
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飛行器拍下了這張
01:35
of the veil of Venus,
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揭開金星面紗的照片
01:37
which turned out to be
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這張照片證明了
01:39
a smog of sulfuric acid.
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金星表層覆蓋著大量硫酸煙霧
01:42
But while our instrument was being built,
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當衛星還在建造時
01:45
I became involved in calculations
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我開始思考
01:47
of the greenhouse effect
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溫室效應
01:49
here on Earth,
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對地球的影響
01:51
because we realized
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因為我們意識到
01:53
that our atmospheric composition was changing.
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大氣成分正在改變
01:56
Eventually, I resigned
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最後，我辭去了
01:58
as principal investigator
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金星計畫中
02:00
on our Venus experiment
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首席研究員的職位
02:02
because a planet changing before our eyes
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因為眼前地球的變遷
02:05
is more interesting and important.
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較值得關注也非常重要
02:07
Its changes will affect all of humanity.
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這些變遷將會影響全人類
02:10
The greenhouse effect had been well understood
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溫室效應在這個世紀
02:12
for more than a century.
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早已廣為人知
02:14
British physicist John Tyndall,
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1850 年，英國物理學家
02:16
in the 1850's,
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約翰．丁達爾
02:18
made laboratory measurements
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在實驗室
02:20
of the infrared radiation,
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做了紅外線輻射的測量
02:22
which is heat.
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也就是熱的測量
02:24
And he showed that gasses such as CO2 absorb heat,
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並且表示二氧化碳這類氣體
02:27
thus acting like a blanket
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會吸收熱能
02:30
warming Earth's surface.
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就像幫地球蓋上棉被保暖
02:32
I worked with other scientists
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我和幾位科學家
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to analyze Earth climate observations.
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共同解析地球氣候的觀察
02:38
In 1981,
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在 1981 年
02:40
we published an article in Science magazine
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我們在科學雜誌發表了一篇文章
02:43
concluding that observed warming
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結論是
02:45
of 0.4 degrees Celsius
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因為溫室效應二氧化碳的增加
02:47
in the prior century
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地球每個世紀
02:49
was consistent with the greenhouse effect
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溫度都會上升
02:51
of increasing CO2.
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0.4度C
02:53
That Earth would likely warm in the 1980's,
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地球很有可能是在 1980 年間才開始升溫
02:56
and warming would exceed
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並且在本世紀末
02:58
the noise level of random weather
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自然天候所會產生的暖化現象危害程度
03:00
by the end of the century.
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將會更加劇烈
03:02
We also said that the 21st century
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我們還認為 21 世紀可能看到
03:05
would see shifting climate zones,
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氣候區變動、
03:07
creation of drought-prone regions
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北美和亞洲
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in North America and Asia,
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易遭旱災地區的形成、
03:11
erosion of ice sheets, rising sea levels
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冰原侵蝕、海平面上升
03:14
and opening of the fabled Northwest Passage.
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和西北航道的開通
03:17
All of these impacts
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所有這些影響
03:19
have since either happened
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不是已經發生
03:21
or are now well under way.
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就是正要發生
03:23
That paper was reported on the front page of the New York Times
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這篇文章上了紐約時報頭版
03:27
and led to me testifying to Congress
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讓我在 1980 年代
03:29
in the 1980's,
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向美國國會證實此事
03:31
testimony in which I emphasized
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公開聲明強調
03:34
that global warming increases both extremes
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全球暖化會使
03:37
of the Earth's water cycle.
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地球的水循環更加極端
03:40
Heatwaves and droughts on one hand,
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一方面，暖化會帶來
03:42
directly from the warming,
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熱浪和乾旱
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but also, because a warmer atmosphere
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另一方面
03:46
holds more water vapor
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越溫暖的大氣層能容納越多
03:48
with its latent energy,
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帶有潛在能量的水蒸氣
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rainfall will become
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如此一來
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in more extreme events.
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降水量會更極端
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There will be stronger storms and greater flooding.
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暴風雨會更強；洪水也會更猛
03:57
Global warming hoopla
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全球暖化的紛紛擾擾
04:00
became time-consuming
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曠日費時
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and distracted me from doing science --
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也干擾到我的科學研究－
04:04
partly because I had complained
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多少也是因為我曾抱怨
04:06
that the White House altered my testimony.
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白宮更改了我的聲明
04:09
So I decided to go back
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所以我決定回來
04:11
to strictly doing science
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繼續嚴謹地做科學研究
04:13
and leave the communication to others.
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把紛擾留給大家
04:17
By 15 years later,
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15 年後
04:20
evidence of global warming was much stronger.
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全球暖化的證據更加明確
04:23
Most of the things mentioned in our 1981 paper
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1981 年發表的文章
04:26
were facts.
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也大多屬實
04:28
I had the privilege to speak twice
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我很榮幸能兩次
04:31
to the president's climate task force.
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和總統的氣候特別小組對話
04:33
But energy policies continued to focus
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但能源政策卻仍然著眼於
04:36
on finding more fossil fuels.
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尋找更多化石燃料
04:39
By then we had two grandchildren,
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那時我有一對孫子
04:42
Sophie and Connor.
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蘇菲和康納
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I decided
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我決定
04:46
that I did not want them in the future
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以後不要讓他們這麼說
04:48
to say, "Opa understood what was happening,
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「爺爺明知發生什麼事
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but he didn't make it clear."
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卻不講清楚。」
04:52
So I decided to give a public talk
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所以我決定發表公開講座
04:55
criticizing the lack of an appropriate energy policy.
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批評世界欠缺恰當的能源政策
04:58
I gave the talk at the University of Iowa in 2004
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2004 年，我到愛荷華大學演講
05:01
and at the 2005 meeting
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另外在 2005 年於
05:04
of the American Geophysical Union.
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美國地球物理聯盟會議中演講
05:07
This led to calls
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這幾場演講導致
05:09
from the White House to NASA headquarters
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白宮致電美國太空總署總部
05:11
and I was told that I could not give any talks or speak with the media
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並且告知我
05:14
without prior explicit approval
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若沒有美國太空總署的事先授權
05:17
by NASA headquarters.
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不得私自對媒體發表任何言論
05:20
After I informed the New York Times
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在我告知紐約時報此限制後
05:22
about these restrictions,
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美國太空總署被迫
05:24
NASA was forced to end the censorship.
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終止這項審查制度
05:27
But there were consequences.
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然而卻也影響了其他事物
05:29
I had been using the first line
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我引用了美國太空總署
05:31
of the NASA mission statement,
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使命聲明的第一條
05:33
"To understand and protect the home planet,"
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「理解並保護我們賴以生存的行星」
05:36
to justify my talks.
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替我的發言辯護
05:38
Soon the first line of the mission statement
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使命聲明第一條隨即就被刪除
05:40
was deleted, never to appear again.
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未再出現過
05:44
Over the next few years
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之後幾年裡
05:46
I was drawn more and more
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正當我以物理學角度
05:48
into trying to communicate the urgency
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做氣候變遷研究的同時
05:51
of a change in energy policies,
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我更多次提出
05:54
while still researching the physics of climate change.
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傳遞能源政策改變的急切
05:57
Let me describe the most important conclusion from the physics --
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我要提出以物理學為根據的重大結論
06:00
first, from Earth's energy balance
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不論是從地球能量平衡
06:03
and, second, from Earth's climate history.
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或是從地球的氣候歷史切入
06:07
Adding CO2 to the air
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釋出二氧化碳
06:09
is like throwing another blanket on the bed.
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就像為地球蓋上一層棉被
06:12
It reduces Earth's heat radiation to space,
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降低了地球熱輻射的散失
06:15
so there's a temporary energy imbalance.
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造成暫時的能量不平衡
06:18
More energy is coming in
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地球接受來自太陽的能量（熱能）
06:20
than going out,
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大於散逸的能量
06:22
until Earth warms up enough
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直到地球達到足夠的溫度
06:24
to again radiate to space
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便會再次釋出能量
06:26
as much energy as it absorbs from the Sun.
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至太空
06:28
So the key quantity
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所以可以驗證地球能量不平衡
06:30
is Earth's energy imbalance.
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的關鍵數據
06:33
Is there more energy coming in
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在於地球所接受的能量
06:35
than going out?
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有比釋出的能量大嗎？
06:37
If so, more warming is in the pipeline.
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若答案為是，代表暖化正在發生
06:40
It will occur without adding any more greenhouse gasses.
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而且不需更多溫室氣體就會發生了
06:44
Now finally,
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現在
06:46
we can measure Earth's energy imbalance precisely
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我們終於可以
06:50
by measuring the heat content
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藉由測量地球熱能的儲存量
06:52
in Earth's heat reservoirs.
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精準的算出地球能量的不平衡
06:55
The biggest reservoir, the ocean, was the least well measured,
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我們利用超過三千多個散佈世界各大洋
06:58
until more than 3,000 Argo floats
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的海洋觀測網浮標（Argo float）
07:01
were distributed around the world's ocean.
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對世界最大的水庫－海洋－進行測量
07:04
These floats reveal
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浮標回傳的資料顯示
07:06
that the upper half of the ocean
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淺海區的溫度
07:08
is gaining heat at a substantial rate.
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正急速上升
07:11
The deep ocean is also gaining heat at a smaller rate,
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深海區的溫度也緩緩上升
07:14
and energy is going
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而且過剩的能量即將影響到
07:16
into the net melting of ice all around the planet.
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地球周邊冰層的淨融化速度
07:19
And the land, to depths of tens of meters,
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甚至連數十米深度的土地
07:22
is also warming.
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也正在暖化中
07:24
The total energy imbalance now
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現在能源不平衡的總量
07:27
is about six-tenths of a watt per square meter.
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已達到每平方公尺 0.6 瓦
07:31
That may not sound like much,
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乍聽之下也許不多
07:33
but when added up over the whole world, it's enormous.
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但若把全世界加總，數字會很龐大
07:36
It's about 20 times greater
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大約是
07:39
than the rate of energy use by all of humanity.
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全人類能源使用量的 20 倍
07:42
It's equivalent to exploding
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這相當於每年有 365 天
07:44
400,000 Hiroshima atomic bombs per day
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每天引爆 40 萬顆
07:50
365 days per year.
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廣島原子彈
07:53
That's how much extra energy
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那也就是
07:55
Earth is gaining each day.
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地球每天過剩的能量
07:57
This imbalance,
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若是我們
07:59
if we want to stabilize climate,
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想穩定這種不平衡的氣候
08:02
means that we must reduce CO2
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我們就必須減少二氧化碳的排放
08:04
from 391 ppm, parts per million,
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從每百萬 391 ppm
08:07
back to 350 ppm.
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降到 350 ppm
08:10
That is the change needed to restore energy balance
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那是使能量恢復平衡
08:13
and prevent further warming.
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和阻止氣候上升的必要改變
08:15
Climate change deniers argue
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否認氣候變遷的人主張
08:18
that the Sun is the main cause of climate change.
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太陽才是氣候變遷的主因
08:21
But the measured energy imbalance occurred
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但是這次能量失衡的測量
08:24
during the deepest solar minimum in the record,
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是在有記錄以來太陽極深處能量的最小值時進行
08:28
when the Sun's energy reaching Earth was least.
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當時太陽的能量傳遞到地球是最小的
08:32
Yet, there was more energy coming in than going out.
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但到目前為止，能量輸入仍大於輸出
08:35
This shows that the effect of the Sun's variations on climate
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表示太陽偏移對氣候的影響
08:38
is overwhelmed by the increasing greenhouse gasses,
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遠不如因為燃燒化石燃料
08:41
mainly from burning fossil fuels.
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所產生二氧化碳所帶來的影響
08:44
Now consider Earth's climate history.
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現在思考一下地球的氣候歷史
08:47
These curves for global temperature,
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這幾個包括世界氣溫
08:49
atmospheric CO2 and sea level
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大氣中二氧化碳和海平面的曲線
08:52
were derived from ocean cores and Antarctic ice cores,
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是從海洋內核和南極冰河推導出
08:55
from ocean sediments and snowflakes
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從海洋的沉積物
08:57
that piled up year after year
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和超過 80 萬年
09:00
over 800,000 years
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年復一年所累積的雪
09:02
forming a two-mile thick ice sheet.
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以致形成一個兩英哩厚的冰原
09:04
As you see, there's a high correlation
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正如你看到的
09:07
between temperature, CO2 and sea level.
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氣溫、二氧化碳和海平面緊密相關
09:10
Careful examination shows
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嚴謹的調查顯示
09:12
that the temperature changes
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幾個世紀以來
09:14
slightly lead the CO2 changes
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氣溫的改變
09:16
by a few centuries.
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微幅的造成二氧化碳改變
09:19
Climate change deniers like to use this fact
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否認氣候變遷的人喜歡用這個事實
09:22
to confuse and trick the public
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來混淆欺騙大眾
09:25
by saying, "Look, the temperature causes CO2 to change,
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說：「是氣溫造成二氧化碳量增加
09:28
not vice versa."
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反之則不成立。」
09:30
But that lag
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但溫度變化幅度高於二氧化碳變化幅度
09:32
is exactly what is expected.
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正如同我們所預期的情況
09:35
Small changes in Earth's orbit
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地球軌道
09:38
that occur over tens to hundreds of thousands of years
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數十萬年的偏移
09:41
alter the distribution
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改變了
09:43
of sunlight on Earth.
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地球受光照的分配量
09:45
When there is more sunlight
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當高緯度的夏天
09:47
at high latitudes in summer, ice sheets melt.
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日照長時，冰原開始融化
09:50
Shrinking ice sheets
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縮小的冰原
09:52
make the planet darker,
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使地球外表更昏暗
09:54
so it absorbs more sunlight
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吸收更多日光後
09:56
and becomes warmer.
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進而升溫
09:58
A warmer ocean releases CO2,
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升溫中的海洋會釋出二氧化碳
10:00
just as a warm Coca-Cola does.
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就像一瓶熱的可口可樂一樣
10:03
And more CO2 causes more warming.
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二氧化碳越多，暖化越快
10:06
So CO2, methane, and ice sheets
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所以二氧化碳、甲烷和冰原
10:09
were feedbacks
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擴大了
10:11
that amplified global temperature change
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全球氣溫的變化
10:14
causing these ancient climate oscillations to be huge,
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儘管氣候變遷被一個非常微弱的力量
10:17
even though the climate change was initiated
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所啟動
10:20
by a very weak forcing.
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最終導致這些遠古氣候產生巨大變革
10:22
The important point
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重要的是
10:24
is that these same amplifying feedbacks
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這些同樣擴大中的環境反撲
10:26
will occur today.
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現在就會發生
10:28
The physics does not change.
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根據物理學定律
10:30
As Earth warms,
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現在因為排放過多二氧化碳
10:32
now because of extra CO2 we put in the atmosphere,
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所以隨著地球逐漸暖化
10:35
ice will melt,
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冰會融化
10:37
and CO2 and methane will be released
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逐漸加溫的海洋則會釋出
10:39
by warming ocean and melting permafrost.
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更多二氧化碳和甲烷
10:42
While we can't say exactly how fast
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雖然我們不知道
10:45
these amplifying feedbacks will occur,
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這些擴大中的環境反撲什麼時候會發生
10:48
it is certain they will occur,
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但可以確定的是它一定會發生
10:51
unless we stop the warming.
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除非我們停止暖化
10:53
There is evidence
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已經有證據顯示
10:55
that feedbacks are already beginning.
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環境反撲正要開始
10:58
Precise measurements
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藉由重力觀測衛星－GRACE
11:00
by GRACE, the gravity satellite,
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精密的測量
11:02
reveal that both Greenland and Antarctica
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顯示出格陵蘭島與南極大陸
11:05
are now losing mass,
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正大量流失
11:07
several hundred cubic kilometers per year.
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每年流失數百平方公里的冰原
11:10
And the rate has accelerated
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並且較 9 年前
11:12
since the measurements began
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開始測量時
11:14
nine years ago.
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流失的速率不斷加快
11:16
Methane is also beginning
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甲烷也開始
11:18
to escape from the permafrost.
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從永凍土被釋出
11:21
What sea level rise
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海平面上升
11:23
can we look forward to?
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會到什麼程度呢？
11:25
The last time CO2 was 390 ppm,
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最後一次測得的二氧化碳值為 390ppm
11:28
today's value,
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也就是今天進行測量的
11:30
sea level was higher
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海平面已高出
11:32
by at least 15 meters, 50 feet.
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至少 15 公尺（約 50 英呎）
11:35
Where you are sitting now
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你們現在坐的地方
11:37
would be under water.
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很可能會被海淹沒
11:39
Most estimates are that, this century,
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大多數的預測是
11:42
we will get at least one meter.
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海平面將在世紀末上升一公尺
11:44
I think it will be more
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我敢說
11:46
if we keep burning fossil fuels,
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如果我們繼續燃燒化石燃料
11:48
perhaps even five meters, which is 18 feet,
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在不久之後，甚至可能升高 5 公尺
11:51
this century or shortly thereafter.
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也就是 18 英呎
11:54
The important point
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重點是
11:56
is that we will have started a process
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人們已經開始了一個
11:59
that is out of humanity's control.
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超出人類控制的過程
12:02
Ice sheets would continue to disintegrate for centuries.
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冰原每個世紀持續崩解
12:05
There would be no stable shoreline.
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穩定的海岸線也不復在
12:07
The economic consequences are almost unthinkable.
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對經濟的影響更是無法想像
12:10
Hundreds of New Orleans-like devastations
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世界各地將遭受
12:14
around the world.
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紐奧良風災般的破壞
12:16
What may be more reprehensible,
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更應受指責的是
12:18
if climate denial continues,
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在人們持續否認氣候變遷下
12:20
is extermination of species.
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物種不斷地滅絕
12:22
The monarch butterfly
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如果我們不改變使用化石燃料的習慣
12:24
could be one of the 20 to 50 percent of all species
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叢斑蝶可能是
12:29
that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates
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政府機構預測
12:32
will be ticketed for extinction
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在本世紀末
12:34
by the end of the century
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將瀕臨絕種的 25% 至 50% 物種
12:36
if we stay on business-as-usual fossil fuel use.
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的其中之一
12:40
Global warming is already affecting people.
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全球暖化確實已深深影響著人們
12:43
The Texas, Oklahoma, Mexico
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去年在德州、奧克拉荷馬
12:45
heatwave and drought last year,
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和墨西哥發生的熱浪和乾旱
12:48
Moscow the year before
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前年的莫斯科
12:50
and Europe in 2003,
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還有 2003 年的歐陸
12:52
were all exceptional events,
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都發生異常的氣候現象
12:55
more than three standard deviations outside the norm.
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氣候觀測值都超出三個標準差以上
12:59
Fifty years ago,
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50 年前
13:01
such anomalies
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這種異常現象
13:03
covered only two- to three-tenths
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僅影響 0.2% 至 0.3%
13:05
of one percent of the land area.
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的土地面積
13:07
In recent years,
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但近年來
13:09
because of global warming,
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因為全球暖化
13:11
they now cover about 10 percent --
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影響面積已達 10%
13:13
an increase by a factor of 25 to 50.
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有 25 到 50 倍的增長幅度
13:16
So we can say with a high degree of confidence
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所以我們可以自信的說
13:19
that the severe Texas and Moscow heatwaves
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德州和莫斯科嚴重的熱浪
13:21
were not natural;
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並非自然現象
13:23
they were caused by global warming.
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而是全球暖化的產物
13:26
An important impact,
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如果
13:28
if global warming continues,
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我們讓全球暖化持續發生
13:30
will be on the breadbasket of our nation and the world,
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帶來的影響
13:33
the Midwest and Great Plains,
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將包括中西部及大平原
13:35
which are expected to become prone to extreme droughts,
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預計在幾十年後都將面臨
13:38
worse than the Dust Bowl,
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比沙塵暴更糟糕的
13:40
within just a few decades,
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極端乾旱
13:42
if we let global warming continue.
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所以我們應該避免全球暖化
13:46
How did I get dragged deeper and deeper
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為何我要一再深入這個議題
13:49
into an attempt to communicate,
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並且試圖與多數人溝通
13:51
giving talks in 10 countries, getting arrested,
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我曾到 10 個國家演講、曾被逮捕
13:54
burning up the vacation time
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浪費無數假期
13:56
that I had accumulated over 30 years?
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試圖傳遞我鑽研了 30 年的議題
14:00
More grandchildren helped me along.
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許多後輩也參與協助我
14:03
Jake is a super-positive,
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傑克是個積極上進
14:05
enthusiastic boy.
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又富熱情的男孩
14:08
Here at age two and a half years,
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才兩歲半的他
14:10
he thinks he can protect
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就自認能保護
14:12
his two and a half-day-old little sister.
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剛滿兩歲的妹妹
14:15
It would be immoral
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把當前
14:17
to leave these young people
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無法掌控的氣候系統
14:19
with a climate system
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留給年輕的下一代
14:21
spiraling out of control.
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是不道德的
14:23
Now the tragedy about climate change
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現在
14:26
is that we can solve it
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我們可以用一項
14:28
with a simple, honest approach
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簡單又公平的方法
14:30
of a gradually rising carbon fee
340
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來解決氣候變遷
14:33
collected from fossil fuel companies
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所造成的悲劇
14:35
and distributed 100 percent electronically
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就是逐漸提高向不可再生能源公司徵收的碳費
14:39
every month to all legal residents
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並以電子型式
14:41
on a per capita basis,
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平均分配給每一位合法公民
14:43
with the government not keeping one dime.
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政府一毛不取
14:47
Most people would get more in the monthly dividend
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這樣大多數人拿到的每月分紅
14:50
than they'd pay in increased prices.
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會比他們所付的碳費高出許多
14:52
This fee and dividend
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這項收費和紅利制度
14:54
would stimulate the economy
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會刺激經濟
14:56
and innovations,
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並帶動改革
14:58
creating millions of jobs.
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創造無數職缺
15:00
It is the principal requirement
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這些主要規則
15:02
for moving us rapidly
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能帶領我們快速迎向
15:05
to a clean energy future.
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一個擁有乾淨能源的未來
15:07
Several top economists
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這是由幾位經濟學者
15:09
are coauthors on this proposition.
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所共同擬定的建議
15:12
Jim DiPeso of Republicans for Environmental Protection
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共和黨員環境保護協會的吉姆．帝帕索
15:15
describes it thusly:
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正是如此形容：
15:17
"Transparent. Market-based.
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「透明度和市場經濟
15:19
Does not enlarge government.
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都不會擴大政府機能
15:21
Leaves energy decisions to individual choices.
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把能源決定權交還給公民
15:24
Sounds like a conservative climate plan."
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聽起來是個穩當的氣候計畫。」
15:28
But instead of placing a rising fee on carbon emissions
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我們的政府強迫全世界大眾
15:32
to make fossil fuels pay
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每年資助
15:35
their true cost to society,
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4 到 5 千億美元
15:37
our governments are forcing the public
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而非
15:40
to subsidize fossil fuels
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提高碳費
15:43
by 400 to 500 billion dollars
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讓化石燃料付出
15:46
per year worldwide,
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造成社會傷害的真正代價
15:48
thus encouraging extraction of every fossil fuel --
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因此鼓勵榨乾化石燃料－
15:51
mountaintop removal,
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山頂的剷除
15:53
longwall mining, fracking,
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長壁採礦、水力壓裂法
15:55
tar sands, tar shale,
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瀝青沙、瀝青頁岩
15:57
deep ocean Arctic drilling.
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和北極圈深海鑽油
16:00
This path, if continued,
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若持續如此
16:02
guarantees that we will pass tipping points
376
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能保證會超越臨界點
16:05
leading to ice sheet disintegration
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導致冰原崩解
16:07
that will accelerate out of control of future generations.
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使後代更無法掌握
16:11
A large fraction of species
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大部分的物種
16:13
will be committed to extinction.
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將會絕種
16:15
And increasing intensity of droughts and floods
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更加強烈的乾旱和水災
16:17
will severely impact breadbaskets of the world,
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將會嚴重影響世界的產糧區
16:20
causing massive famines
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造成大規模饑荒
16:22
and economic decline.
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和經濟衰退
16:26
Imagine a giant asteroid
385
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想像一下，一顆巨大的小行星
16:29
on a direct collision course with Earth.
386
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正與地球同在導致相撞的軌道
16:33
That is the equivalent
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這就是
16:35
of what we face now.
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我們現在所面臨的狀況
16:37
Yet, we dither,
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然而我們卻驚慌失措
16:39
taking no action
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沒有採取
16:41
to divert the asteroid,
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扭轉情勢的行動
16:43
even though the longer we wait,
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即便我們知道
16:45
the more difficult and expensive it becomes.
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拖越久難度和花費越高
16:49
If we had started in 2005,
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如果我們 2005 年就開始
16:51
it would have required emission reductions of three percent per year
395
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我們每年必須降低 3% 的排放量
16:54
to restore planetary energy balance
396
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使地球恢復能量平衡
16:57
and stabilize climate this century.
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並且穩定本世紀的氣候
17:00
If we start next year,
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如果我們明年開始
17:02
it is six percent per year.
399
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每年降幅就必須提升到 6%
17:04
If we wait 10 years, it is 15 percent per year --
400
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要是在等 10 年，降幅更提升到 15%
17:07
extremely difficult and expensive,
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難度極大且需付出龐大代價
17:09
perhaps impossible.
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不如說是天方夜譚
17:12
But we aren't even starting.
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但我們根本還沒開始
17:14
So now you know what I know
404
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如今你已經知道一切
17:17
that is moving me to sound this alarm.
405
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讓我極力想喚起警覺的資訊
17:20
Clearly, I haven't gotten this message across.
406
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3000
無疑地，我還沒完成訊息傳遞
17:23
The science is clear.
407
1028000
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科學已經很清楚
17:26
I need your help
408
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2000
我需要你們
17:28
to communicate the gravity and the urgency
409
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2000
協助傳遞
17:30
of this situation
410
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當前處境的嚴重和急切性
17:32
and its solutions
411
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2000
和有效的
17:34
more effectively.
412
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2000
解決之道
17:36
We owe it to our children and grandchildren.
413
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這是我們應該對晚輩做的
17:38
Thank you.
414
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謝謝
17:40
(Applause)
415
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（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
James Hansen - ClimatologistJames Hansen has made key insights into our global climate -- and inspired a generation of activists and scientists.
Why you should listen
James Hansen is Adjunct Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University’s Earth Institute. He was trained in physics and astronomy in the space science program of James Van Allen at the University of Iowa. His early research on the clouds of Venus helped identify their composition as sulfuric acid. Since the late 1970s, he has focused his research on Earth's climate, especially human-made climate change. From 1981 to 2013, he headed the NASA Godard Institute for Space Studies. He is also a member of the National Academy of Sciences.
Hansen is known for his testimony on climate change to congressional committees in the 1980s that helped raise broad awareness of the global warming issue. Hansen is recognized for speaking truth to power, for identifying ineffectual policies as greenwash, and for outlining the actions that the public must take to protect the future of young people and the other species on the planet.
James Hansen | Speaker | TED.com