TED2019
Kishore Mahbubani: How the West can adapt to a rising Asia
馬凱碩: 西方如何適應崛起的亞洲
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作家和外交官馬凱碩說，隨著亞洲經濟起飛和政府繼續獲得權力，西方需要找到適應新全球秩序的方法。 通過對國際政治的深刻見解，馬凱碩分享由三部分組成的戰略，西方政府可以利用此一戰略來恢復權力，和改善與世界其他國家的關係。
Kishore Mahbubani - Author, diplomat, academic
Through his books, diplomatic work and research, Kishore Mahbubani reenvisions global power dynamics through the lens of rising Asian economies. Full bio
Through his books, diplomatic work and research, Kishore Mahbubani reenvisions global power dynamics through the lens of rising Asian economies. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
About 200 years ago,
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大約 200 年前，
00:16
Napoleon famously warned ...
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拿破崙發出了著名的警告......
00:21
He said, "Let China sleep,
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他說：「讓中國沈睡，
00:25
for when she wakes,
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因為一旦醒過來，
00:28
she will shake the world."
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她將震撼整個世界。」
00:31
Despite this early warning,
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儘管有這樣的早期警告，
00:34
the West chose to go to sleep
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西方仍選擇在中國、印度
00:37
at precisely the moment
when China and India
when China and India
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和亞洲其他地區甦醒過來時入睡。
00:41
and the rest of Asia woke up.
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00:45
Why did this happen?
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為什麼會這樣？
00:47
I'm here to address this great mystery.
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我來這裡解說這個大謎團。
00:51
Now what do I mean when I say
the West chose to go to sleep?
the West chose to go to sleep?
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我說西方選擇入睡，意思是什麼？
00:55
Here I'm referring
to the failure of the West
to the failure of the West
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我在這裡所指的是
西方未能智慧地、深思熟慮地應對
00:59
to react intelligently and thoughtfully
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01:03
to a new world environment
that's obviously been created
that's obviously been created
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這個顯然是由亞洲回歸
所創造的新世界環境。
所創造的新世界環境。
01:07
by the return of Asia.
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01:09
As a friend of the West
I feel anguished by this,
I feel anguished by this,
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身為西方的朋友，我感到非常痛苦，
01:13
so my goal to today
is to try to help the West.
is to try to help the West.
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所以我今天的目標是努力幫助西方。
01:17
But I have to begin the story first
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但首先我必須談談
01:20
by talking about how the West
actually woke up the rest of the world.
actually woke up the rest of the world.
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實際上西方如何喚醒了
世界的其他地方。
世界的其他地方。
01:26
Look at chart one.
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請看圖表一。
01:29
From the year one through the year 1820,
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從第一年直到 1820 年，
01:34
the two largest economies of the world
were always those of China and India.
were always those of China and India.
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世上最大的兩個經濟體
始終是中國和印度的經濟體。
始終是中國和印度的經濟體。
01:42
So it's only in the last 200 years
that Europe took off,
that Europe took off,
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只有在過去的 200 年裡歐洲起飛，
01:47
followed by North America.
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接著是北美。
01:50
So the past 200 years of world history
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所以，過去 200 年的世界歷史
嚴重偏離正常。
01:54
have therefore been
a major historical aberration.
a major historical aberration.
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02:00
All aberrations come to a natural end
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畸變全都會自然而然地結束，
02:04
and this is what we are seeing.
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正如我們所見。
02:06
And if you look at chart two,
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看圖表二
02:08
you'll see how quickly and how forcefully
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就會看到中國和印度
02:13
China and India are coming back.
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快速和強勁的回歸力道。
02:18
The big question is:
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最大的問題是：
02:20
Who woke up China and India?
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誰喚醒了中國和印度？
02:25
The only honest answer to this question
is that it was Western civilization
is that it was Western civilization
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這個問題唯一的誠實答案
就是西方的文明。
02:30
that did so.
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02:32
We all know that the West was the first
to successfully modernize,
to successfully modernize,
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我們都知道是西方國家
首先成功地現代化和自我改造，
02:35
transform itself;
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02:37
initially it used its power
to colonize and dominate the world.
to colonize and dominate the world.
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先是用權力來殖民和統治世界。
02:41
But over time, it shared the gifts
of Western wisdom
of Western wisdom
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但隨著時間推移，
它與其餘的世界分享
西方智慧的恩賜。
西方智慧的恩賜。
02:46
with the rest of the world.
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02:48
Let me add here that I have
personally benefited
personally benefited
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讓我在這裡補充說明，
我本身受益於西方分享的智慧。
02:52
from the sharing of Western wisdom.
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02:55
When I was born in Singapore,
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我於 1948 年出生在新加坡，
02:57
which was then a poor British colony,
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當時是一個貧窮的英國殖民地，
03:00
in 1948,
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03:01
I experienced, like three-quarters
of humanity then,
of humanity then,
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和當時四分之三的人一樣，
我經歷了極度的貧困。
03:06
extreme poverty.
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03:08
Indeed, on the first day
when I went to school
when I went to school
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事實上，在 6 歲時我第一天上學，
03:11
at the age of six,
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03:12
I was put in a special feeding program
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被排入一個特殊的餵養計劃，
03:15
because I was technically undernourished.
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因為技術上來說，我營養不良。
03:19
Now as you can see I'm overnourished.
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看得出現在我營養過剩。
03:21
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
03:23
But the greatest gift I got
was that of Western education.
was that of Western education.
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但我收到的最大禮物
是接受西方教育。
是接受西方教育。
03:30
Now since I've personally
traveled this journey
traveled this journey
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自從我個人走過這個
03:34
from third world poverty
to a comfortable middle-class existence,
to a comfortable middle-class existence,
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從貧困的第三世界
到舒適的中產階級的旅程後，
到舒適的中產階級的旅程後，
03:40
I can speak with great conviction
about the impact of Western wisdom
about the impact of Western wisdom
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我能以強烈的信念談論
西方的智慧，和西方
與世界分享智慧的影響。
與世界分享智慧的影響。
03:45
and the sharing of Western
wisdom with the world.
wisdom with the world.
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03:49
And one particular gift
that the West shared
that the West shared
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一件西方分享的特別禮物
03:53
was the art of reasoning.
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就是推理的藝術。
03:55
Now reasoning was not
invented by the West.
invented by the West.
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推理並非西方所發明，
03:58
It's inherent in all cultures
and civilizations.
and civilizations.
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全部的文化和文明本來就有。
04:02
Amartya Sen has described how deeply
embedded it is in Indian civilization.
embedded it is in Indian civilization.
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阿馬蒂亞·庫馬爾·森描述
它深嵌在印度的文明中。
04:10
Yet there's also no doubt
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然而毫無疑問，
04:12
that it was the West
that carried the art of reasoning
that carried the art of reasoning
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是西方將推理藝術
推向了更高的層次。
推向了更高的層次。
04:16
to a much higher level.
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04:18
And through the Scientific Revolution,
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通過科學革命、
04:20
the Enlightenment,
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啟蒙運動、
04:22
the Industrial Revolution,
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工業革命，
04:24
the West really raised it forcefully,
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西方確實強而有力地
提升推理的藝術，
提升推理的藝術，
04:28
and equally importantly used this,
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同樣重要的是
還用它來解決許多重大的實際問題。
04:31
applied it to solve
many major practical problems.
many major practical problems.
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04:37
And the West then shared
this art of applied reasoning
this art of applied reasoning
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然後西方與世界其他的地方
分享這種應用推理的藝術，
分享這種應用推理的藝術，
04:41
with the rest of the world,
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04:43
and I can tell you that it led
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我可以告訴你，
04:46
to what I call three silent revolutions.
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它導致了我說的三次「無聲革命」。
04:50
And as an Asian,
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身為亞洲人，
04:52
I can describe how these silent
revolutions transformed Asia.
revolutions transformed Asia.
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我能描述這些無聲的革命
如何改變了亞洲。
如何改變了亞洲。
05:00
The first revolution was in economics.
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第一次革命是經濟。
05:04
The main reason
why so many Asian economies,
why so many Asian economies,
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許多亞洲經濟體——
05:09
including the communist societies
of China and Vietnam,
of China and Vietnam,
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中國和越南共產主義社會包括在內——
05:14
have performed so spectacularly well
in economic development,
in economic development,
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能在經濟發展方面表現如此出色，
05:19
is because they finally understood,
absorbed and are implementing
absorbed and are implementing
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主要是因為它們最終理解、吸收
並實施自由市場經濟——
05:23
free market economics --
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05:26
a gift from the West.
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來自西方的禮物。
05:27
Adam Smith was right.
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亞當史密斯是對的，
05:29
If you let markets decide,
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如果任由市場決定，
05:32
productivity goes up.
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生產力就會提高。
05:35
The second gift was psychological.
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第二個禮物是心理上的。
05:39
Here too I can speak
from personal experience.
from personal experience.
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也可以用我個的人經驗談。
05:43
When I was young,
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我年輕時，
05:45
my mother and her generation believed
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家母和她那一代的人
相信生命由命運決定，
05:49
that life was determined by fate.
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05:53
You couldn't do anything about it.
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你無能為力。
05:56
My generation
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我這一代
05:57
and the generation of Asians after me,
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和在我之後的亞洲人世代
06:00
believe that we can take charge
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相信我們能夠掌控、
06:02
and we can improve our lives.
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能夠改善我們的生活。
06:05
And this may explain, for example,
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舉個例子，
06:07
the spike of entrepreneurship
you see all throughout Asia today.
you see all throughout Asia today.
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這可以解釋你今天
在亞洲各地看到的創業高峰。
在亞洲各地看到的創業高峰。
06:13
And if you travel through Asia today,
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如果你今天在亞洲旅行，
06:16
you will also see the results
of the third revolution:
of the third revolution:
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你也會看到
第三次革命的結果：
06:23
the revolution of good governance.
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善治的革命。
06:27
Now as a result of good governance --
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由於良好的治理——
06:30
travel in Asia,
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在亞洲各地看得到
06:31
you see better health care,
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更好的醫療保健、
06:34
better education,
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更好的教育、
06:36
better infrastructure,
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更好的基礎設施、
06:38
better public policies.
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更好的公共政策。
06:40
It's a different world.
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是個不一樣的世界。
06:42
Now having transformed the world
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在與世界其他國家分享西方的智慧，
06:45
through the sharing of Western wisdom
with the rest of the world,
with the rest of the world,
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改變了世界之後，
06:49
the logical and rational response
of the West should have been
of the West should have been
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西方的邏輯和理性反應本該是：
06:54
to say, "Hey, we have to adjust
and adapt to this new world."
and adapt to this new world."
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「嘿，我們必須調整
和適應這個新世界。」
和適應這個新世界。」
06:59
Instead, the West chose to go to sleep.
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然而相反地，西方選擇沈睡。
07:04
Why did it happen?
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為什麼會這樣？
07:06
I believe it happened
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我相信是因為
07:09
because the West became distracted
with two major events.
with two major events.
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西方因兩件大事而分心了。
07:16
The first event
was the end of the Cold War.
was the end of the Cold War.
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第一件事是冷戰結束。
07:21
Yes, the end of the Cold War
was a great victory.
was a great victory.
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是的，冷戰的結束
是一次偉大的勝利。
是一次偉大的勝利。
07:27
The West defeated the mighty Soviet Union
without firing a shot.
without firing a shot.
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西方在不發一槍一彈的情況下
擊敗了強大的蘇聯。
擊敗了強大的蘇聯。
07:32
Amazing.
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很驚人。
07:34
But you know, when you have
a great victory like this,
a great victory like this,
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但要知道，這樣的偉大勝利
07:38
it also leads to arrogance and hubris.
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也會導致傲慢和狂妄自大。
07:43
And this hubris was best captured
in a very famous essay
in a very famous essay
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弗朗西斯·福山（Francis Fukuyama）
一篇名為〈歷史的終結〉的著名文章
07:48
by Francis Fukuyama
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最能捕捉這種狂妄自大。
07:50
called "The End of History?"
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07:54
Now, Fukuyama was putting across
a very sophisticated message,
a very sophisticated message,
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福山傳遞非常複雜的訊息，
08:00
but all that the West
heard from this essay
heard from this essay
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但西方從這篇文章中只聽到：
08:03
was that we, the liberal democracies,
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我們自由民主國家已經成功，
08:07
we have succeeded,
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08:09
we don't have to change,
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我們不需改變，
08:11
we don't have to adapt,
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我們無需適應，
08:12
it's only the rest of the world
that has to change and adapt.
that has to change and adapt.
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世界其他地方必須要改變和適應。
08:18
Unfortunately, like a dangerous opiate,
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不幸的是，就像
危險的鴉片製劑一樣，
危險的鴉片製劑一樣，
08:22
this essay did a lot
of brain damage to the West
of brain damage to the West
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這篇文章造成西方巨大的腦傷，
08:26
because it put them to sleep
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因為在中國和印度醒來
08:28
just at precisely the moment
when China and India were waking up
when China and India were waking up
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與西方尚未調整和適應的關鍵時刻，
08:33
and the West didn't adjust and adapt.
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它使得西方睡著了。
08:37
The second major event was 9/11,
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第二個重大事件是 9/11 事件，
08:41
which happened in 2001.
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發生在 2001 年。
08:45
And as we know, 9/11 caused
a lot of shock and grief.
a lot of shock and grief.
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正如眾所週知，
9/11 引起許多震驚和悲痛。
9/11 引起許多震驚和悲痛。
08:51
I personally experienced
the shock and grief
the shock and grief
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我個人也經歷了震驚和悲傷，
08:55
because I was in Manhattan
when 9/11 happened.
when 9/11 happened.
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因為 9/11 事件發生時我在曼哈頓。
09:00
9/11 also generated a lot of anger,
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9/11 也引發了眾多憤怒，
09:04
and in this anger, the United States
decided to invade Afghanistan
decided to invade Afghanistan
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在憤怒當中，美國決定入侵阿富汗，
09:09
and later, Iraq.
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後來又入侵伊拉克。
09:12
And unfortunately,
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不幸的是，
09:16
partly as a result of this anger,
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部分由於這憤怒，
09:19
the West didn't notice
the significance of another event
the significance of another event
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西方沒注意到 2001 年發生的
另一起事件的重要性：
09:24
that happened also in 2001.
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09:28
China joined the World Trade Organization.
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中國加入了世界貿易組織。
09:33
Now, when you suddenly inject
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當全球資本主義體系
09:36
900 million new workers
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突然注入了 9 億個新工人時，
09:40
into the global capitalist system,
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09:44
it would naturally lead
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自然會導致經濟學家約瑟夫·熊彼特
09:45
to what the economist Joseph Schumpeter
called creative destruction.
called creative destruction.
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所謂的「創造性破壞」。
09:53
Western workers lost their jobs,
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西方工人失業，
09:57
they saw their incomes stagnate,
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看到他們的收入停滯不前，
10:01
clearly people had to think
about new competitive policies,
about new competitive policies,
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顯然人們不得不考慮新的競爭政策，
10:05
workers needed retraining,
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工人需要再培訓，
10:07
workers needed new skills.
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工人需要新的技能。
10:09
None of this was done.
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這些都沒做。
10:12
So partly as a result of this,
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這是部分的原因，
10:15
the United States of America became
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它導致美國
10:17
the only major developed society
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成為主要已開發國家中
平均收入較低的半數國人——
10:23
where the average income
of the bottom 50 percent --
of the bottom 50 percent --
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沒錯，50％ 的人——
10:29
yes, 50 percent --
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30 年來平均收入下降的唯一國家，
10:33
average income went down
over a 30-year period,
over a 30-year period,
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從 1980 年到 2010年。
10:38
from 1980 to 2010.
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10:43
So partly, as a result of this,
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這是部分原因，
10:47
it led eventually to the election
of Donald Trump in 2016,
of Donald Trump in 2016,
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最終導致 2016 年川普當選總統，
10:53
who exploited the anger
of the working classes,
of the working classes,
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他利用了工人階級——
10:56
who are predominantly white.
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主要是白人——的憤怒。
10:58
It also contributed
to the rise of populism in Europe.
to the rise of populism in Europe.
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這也促成了歐洲民粹主義的興起。
11:03
And one wonders,
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有人納悶，
11:05
could this populism have been avoided
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如果西方在冷戰結束
和 9/11 之前沒有分心的話，
和 9/11 之前沒有分心的話，
11:07
if the West had not been distracted
by the end of the Cold War and by 9/11?
by the end of the Cold War and by 9/11?
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能否避免這種民粹主義？
11:14
But the big question
we face today is this:
we face today is this:
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但我們今天面臨的重大問題是：
11:18
Is it too late?
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為時已晚了嗎？
11:20
Has the West lost everything?
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西方失去了一切嗎？
11:23
And my answer is that it's not too late.
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我的回答是：為時未晚。
11:27
It is possible for the West to recover
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西方能夠復原
11:31
and come back in strength.
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和再起。
11:34
And using the Western art of reasoning,
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用西方的推理藝術，
11:38
I would recommend that the West
adopt a new "three-m" strategy:
adopt a new "three-m" strategy:
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我建議西方採用新的「三 M」策略：
11:43
minimalist, multilateral
and Machiavellian.
and Machiavellian.
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極簡主義（minimalist）、
多邊主義（multilateral）
和馬基維利主義（Machiavellian）。
11:49
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
11:50
Why minimalist?
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為什麼用極簡主義？
11:52
Now even though
Western domination has ended,
Western domination has ended,
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儘管西方的支配已成過去，
11:56
the West continues to intervene
and interfere in the affairs
and interfere in the affairs
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西方仍繼續干預、干涉
許多其他社會的事務。
12:00
of many other societies.
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12:02
This is unwise.
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這很不明智，
12:04
This is generating anger and resentment,
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引起憤怒和怨恨，
12:07
especially in Islamic societies.
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尤其在伊斯蘭的社會裡。
12:09
It's also draining the resources
and spirits of Western societies.
and spirits of Western societies.
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它也正在損耗西方
社會的資源和精神。
社會的資源和精神。
12:15
Now I know that the Islamic world
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我知道伊斯蘭世界
12:18
is having difficulties modernizing.
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正面臨現代化的困境，
12:22
It will have to find its way,
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它必須找到自己的方式，
12:26
but it's more likely to do so
if it is left alone to do so.
if it is left alone to do so.
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但如果放手由它自己做，
就更可能辦得到。
就更可能辦得到。
12:31
Now I can say this with some conviction
because I come from a region,
because I come from a region,
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我懷抱著信念這樣說，
因為我來自東南亞地區，
12:35
Southeast Asia,
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12:37
which has almost as many Muslims
as the Arab world.
as the Arab world.
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這個地區裡的穆斯林
幾乎和阿拉伯世界裡的一樣多。
幾乎和阿拉伯世界裡的一樣多。
12:42
266 million Muslims.
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有 2.66 億個穆斯林。
12:44
Southeast Asia is also one of the most
diverse continents on planet earth,
diverse continents on planet earth,
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東南亞也是地球上
最多樣化的陸塊之一，
最多樣化的陸塊之一，
12:47
because you also have
146 million Christians,
146 million Christians,
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因為那裡還擁有 1.46 億名基督徒、
12:50
149 million Buddhists --
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1.49 億名佛教徒——
12:52
Mahayana Buddhists
and Hinayana Buddhists --
and Hinayana Buddhists --
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大乘和小乘的佛教徒——
12:55
and you also have millions of Taoists
and Confucianists and Hindus
and Confucianists and Hindus
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還有數百萬道家、儒家和印度教徒，
12:59
and even communists.
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甚至共產黨人。
13:02
And once known as "the Balkans of Asia,"
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東南亞曾經被稱為
「亞洲的巴爾幹半島」，
「亞洲的巴爾幹半島」，
13:05
southeast Asia today should
be experiencing a clash of civilizations.
be experiencing a clash of civilizations.
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今天本應經歷著文明的衝突。
13:10
Instead, what you see in southeast Asia
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相反地，你所看到的東南亞
13:14
is one of the most peaceful
and prosperous corners of planet earth
and prosperous corners of planet earth
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是地球上最和平、
最繁榮的角落之一，
最繁榮的角落之一，
13:18
with the second-most successful
regional multilateral organization,
regional multilateral organization,
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有著第二成功的區域多邊組織：
13:22
ASEAN.
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東南亞國家協會。
13:23
So clearly, minimalism can work.
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很明顯極簡主義能奏效，
13:26
The West should try it out.
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西方應該嘗試一下。
13:28
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
13:30
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
13:35
But I'm also aware that minimalism
cannot solve all the problems.
cannot solve all the problems.
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但我也意識到極簡主義
無法解決所有的問題。
無法解決所有的問題。
13:39
There are some hard problems
that have to be dealt with:
that have to be dealt with:
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有些難題需要處理：
13:42
Al-Qaeda, ISIS --
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基地組織、伊斯蘭國
13:44
they remain dangerous threats.
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仍然是危險的威脅。
13:47
They must be found,
they must be destroyed.
they must be destroyed.
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必須找到它們、摧毀它們。
13:50
The question is, is it wise for the West,
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問題是，這樣做明智嗎，
由只佔世界人口 12％ 的西方——
13:54
which represents 12 percent
of the world's population --
of the world's population --
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13:57
yes, 12 percent --
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沒錯，12％——
13:59
to fight these threats on its own
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單獨對抗這些威脅，
還是與世上其餘的
88％ 人口聯手對抗呢？
88％ 人口聯手對抗呢？
14:01
or to fight with the remaining
88 percent of the world's population?
88 percent of the world's population?
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14:05
And the logical and rational answer is
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理性的答案應該是
14:08
that you should work
with the remaining 88 percent.
with the remaining 88 percent.
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與其餘的 88％ 人合作。
14:11
Now where does one go
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如果想獲得人們的支持，
14:13
if you want to get
the support of humanity?
the support of humanity?
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應該去哪裡？
14:15
There's only one place:
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只有一個地方：
14:17
the United Nations.
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聯合國。
14:19
Now I've been ambassador to the UN twice.
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我擔任駐聯合國大使兩次。
14:22
Maybe that makes me a bit biased,
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也許這讓我有點偏頗，
14:25
but I can tell you that working
with the UN can lead to success.
with the UN can lead to success.
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但我能告訴你
和聯合國合作能帶來成功。
和聯合國合作能帶來成功。
14:30
Why is it that the first Iraq war,
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為什麼老布希總統
14:32
fought by President George H. W. Bush,
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在第一次伊拉克戰爭中成功，
14:35
succeeded?
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14:36
While the second Iraq war,
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而他的兒子小布希總統
14:38
fought by his son,
President George W. Bush,
President George W. Bush,
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在第二次伊拉克戰爭中失敗了呢？
14:41
failed?
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14:42
One key reason is that
the senior Bush went to the UN
the senior Bush went to the UN
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其中一個關鍵原因是
在出兵伊拉克之前，
在出兵伊拉克之前，
14:47
to get the support of the global community
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老布希總統前往聯合國
尋求全球社會的支持。
尋求全球社會的支持。
14:49
before fighting the war in Iraq.
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14:52
So multilateralism works.
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多邊主義是有效的。
14:55
There's another reason
why we have to work with the UN.
why we have to work with the UN.
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另一個必須與聯合國合作的原因是
14:57
The world is shrinking.
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世界正在縮小，
14:59
We are becoming a small,
interdependent, global village.
interdependent, global village.
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正在成為小型、相互依存的地球村。
15:05
All villages need village councils.
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所有的村里都需要村民代表大會。
15:09
And the only global
village counsel we have,
village counsel we have,
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正如已故的聯合國秘書長
科菲·安南所說的，
科菲·安南所說的，
15:11
as the late UN Secretary-General
Kofi Annan said,
Kofi Annan said,
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我們唯一擁有的全球村
村民代表大會就是聯合國。
村民代表大會就是聯合國。
15:15
is the UN.
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15:18
Now as a geopolitical analyst,
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身為地緣政治分析家，
15:21
I do know that it's often considered naive
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我明白與聯合國合作
往往被視為天真。
15:27
to work with the UN.
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15:29
So now let me inject
my Machiavellian point.
my Machiavellian point.
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所以現在讓我注入
我的馬基維利觀點。
我的馬基維利觀點。
15:34
Now Machiavelli is a figure
who's often derided in the West,
who's often derided in the West,
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馬基維利是個經常
被西方嘲笑的人物，
被西方嘲笑的人物，
15:39
but the liberal philosopher
Isaiah Berlin reminded us
Isaiah Berlin reminded us
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但自由派哲學家
以賽亞·柏林提醒我們，
以賽亞·柏林提醒我們，
15:45
that the goal of Machiavelli
was to promote virtue, not evil.
was to promote virtue, not evil.
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馬基維利的目標是促進美德，
不是邪惡。
15:51
So what is the Machiavellian point?
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那麼，什麼是馬基維利觀點呢？
15:54
It's this: what is
the best way for the West
the best way for the West
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如下：
什麼是西方限制
正在崛起的新興大國的最佳辦法呢？
15:59
to constrain the new rising powers
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16:02
that are emerging?
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16:04
And the answer is
that the best way to constrain them
that the best way to constrain them
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最佳的限制方式是
16:08
is through multilateral rules
and multilateral norms,
and multilateral norms,
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是透過多邊規則和多邊規範，
16:13
multilateral institutions
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多邊機構和多邊進程。
16:15
and multilateral processes.
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16:20
Now let me conclude
with one final, big message.
with one final, big message.
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最後讓我用一個重大的訊息總結。
16:25
As a longtime friend of the West,
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身為西方的老朋友，
16:27
I'm acutely aware of how pessimistic
Western societies have become.
Western societies have become.
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我敏銳地意識到
西方社會的悲觀情緒。
16:34
Many in the West don't believe
that a great future lies ahead for them,
that a great future lies ahead for them,
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許多西方人不相信
自己會有美好的未來，
自己會有美好的未來，
16:40
that their children
will not have better lives.
will not have better lives.
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他們的孩子將無法擁有更好的生活。
16:44
So please do not fear the future
or the rest of the world.
or the rest of the world.
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請不要害怕未來
或其餘的世界。
16:51
Now I can say this with some conviction,
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我相信，
16:54
because as a Hindu Sindhi,
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因為身為印度教信徒，
16:59
I actually feel
a direct cultural connection
a direct cultural connection
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我真的感受到直接的聯繫，
與社會和社會多元文化的
17:03
with society's diverse cultures
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直接聯繫，
17:06
and societies all the way
from Tehran to Tokyo.
from Tehran to Tokyo.
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從德黑蘭一直到東京。
17:14
And more than half of humanity
lives in this space,
lives in this space,
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超過一半的人生活在這個空間裡，
17:19
so with this direct cultural connection,
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所以，透過這種直接的文化聯繫，
17:22
I can say with great conviction
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我可以非常有信心地說，
17:25
that if the West chooses
to adopt a wiser strategy
to adopt a wiser strategy
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如果西方明智地選擇採取
更簡約的、
17:31
of being minimalist,
multilateral and Machiavellian,
multilateral and Machiavellian,
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多邊的，和馬基維利策略，
17:36
the rest of the world
will be happy to work with the West.
will be happy to work with the West.
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其餘的世界將會樂與西方合作。
17:40
So a great future lies ahead for humanity.
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因此，人類面臨著美好的未來。
17:45
Let's embrace it together.
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讓我們一起擁抱這未來。
17:47
Thank you.
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謝謝。
17:48
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Kishore Mahbubani - Author, diplomat, academicThrough his books, diplomatic work and research, Kishore Mahbubani reenvisions global power dynamics through the lens of rising Asian economies.
Why you should listen
Kishore Mahbubani is a Distinguished Fellow at the Asia Research Institute, National University of Singapore (NUS) and a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. He was the Founding Dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, NUS. From 1984-1989 and 1998-2004, he was Singapore's Permanent Representative to the UN, and served twice as President of the UN Security Council during the second term.
Mahbubani is best known in the West as the author of Can Asians Think?, The Great Convergence (which was selected by the Financial Times as one of the best books of 2013) and Has the West Lost It?.
Kishore Mahbubani | Speaker | TED.com