ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Paul Knoepfler - Biologist
Paul Knoepfler is a biomedical scientist and writer focusing on stem cells and genetics.

Why you should listen

Dr. Paul Knoepfler loves stem cells. He is working to figure out how we use safely them to treat many diseases and how stem cells sometimes turn to the dark side to cause cancer. Over the years he has made key discoveries about how stem cells and cancer are programmed. Now he is especially interested in how to hack these cells to control their behavior, including using powerful CRISPR genetic modification technology.

Knoepfler has also been a leading voice in the discussion about how CRISPR could be used to make designer babies and the risks of going down that path. He is a professor of cell biology and anatomy at UC Davis School of Medicine in California, where he both does research and teaches. In addition, he is a prolific writer including his popular science blog, The Niche, and two books: Stem Cells: An Insider's Guide and GMO Sapiens: The Life-Changing Science of Designer Babies. He is excited about contributing to efforts to build an innovative, global community of interconnected people with a shared passion for biomedical science and battling fake science. Knoepfler’s outspoken, approachable nature in tackling some of the most transformative questions in science has made him a go-to scientist for journalists and ordinary people across the globe.

More profile about the speaker
Paul Knoepfler | Speaker | TED.com
TEDxVienna

Paul Knoepfler: The ethical dilemma of designer babies

保羅.諾福: 訂製嬰兒進退兩難的道德問題

Filmed:
1,462,842 views

創造基改人類已經不是科幻小說裡的情節了;它已經像個未來的場景。生物學家保羅.諾福(Paul Knoepfler)預計在 15 年內,科學家可以利用基因編輯技術 CRISPR 來對人類胚胎進行特定的「升級」——從身體外觀的改變到免除自身免疫疾病的風險,在這場發人省思的演講中,諾福要我們做好準備,因為訂製嬰兒的革命即將到來,而這會因個人不同的決定,為我們帶來無法預料的結果。
- Biologist
Paul Knoepfler is a biomedical scientist and writer focusing on stem cells and genetics. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:12
So what if I could make for you
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如果我可以幫你做出一個訂製嬰兒,
那會發生甚麼事?
00:15
a designer設計師 baby寶寶?
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00:18
What if you as a parent-to-be父母將要
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要是身為父母的你,
00:20
and I as a scientist科學家 decided決定
to go down that road together一起?
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與身為科學家的我
決定一起合作完成呢?
要是我們沒這樣做呢?
00:26
What if we didn't?
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00:27
What if we thought, "That's a bad idea理念,"
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如果我們認為「訂製寶寶不對」,
00:30
but many許多 of our family家庭,
friends朋友 and coworkers合作夥伴
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但我們的家人、朋友、同仁
很多人卻做了那個決定,
那又會如何呢?
00:33
did make that decision決定?
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00:36
Let's fast-forward快進 just 15 years年份 from now.
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讓我們快進到 15 年之後,
00:39
Let's pretend假裝 it's the year 2030,
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假設現在是 2030 年,
00:42
and you're a parent.
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你已經為人父母,
00:44
You have your daughter女兒,
Marianne瑪麗安, next下一個 to you,
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坐在你旁邊的是你女兒,瑪麗安,
00:48
and in 2030, she is what we call a natural自然
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2030年,我們稱她為自然人
00:51
because she has no genetic遺傳 modifications修改.
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因為她沒有被基因改造過,
00:55
And because you and your partner夥伴
consciously自覺 made製作 that decision決定,
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而因為你和你的另一半所做的決定,
00:59
many許多 in your social社會 circle,
they kind of look down on you.
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使你在很多社交場合中,
讓人有點瞧不起你。
01:02
They think you're, like,
a Luddite勒德 or a technophobe技術恐懼.
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他們認為你是個反對新科技
或排斥科技產品的人。
01:07
Marianne's瑪麗安 best最好 friend朋友 Jenna珍娜,
who lives生活 right next下一個 door,
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你女兒最好的朋友珍娜,
就住在你家隔壁,
01:10
is a very different不同 story故事.
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完全是另一回事。
01:12
She was born天生 a genetically基因 modified改性
designer設計師 baby寶寶 with numerous眾多 upgrades升級.
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她是一個基因改造寶寶,
而且升級了很多功能。
01:20
Yeah. Upgrades升級.
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是的,升級。
01:22
And these enhancements增強 were introduced介紹
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而這些改造,是經由一種
01:25
using運用 a new genetic遺傳
modification修改 technology技術
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全新的基因改造技術所完成,
01:28
that goes by the funny滑稽 name名稱 CRISPRCRISPR,
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它有一個好笑的名稱,叫做「CRISPR」,
01:31
you know, like something's什麼是 crisp,
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有點像脆薯的感覺,
01:32
this is CRISPRCRISPR.
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這是 CRISPR 。
01:35
The scientist科學家 that Jenna's珍娜的 parents父母
hired僱用 to do this
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珍娜父母親聘請科學家來做這件事情
01:38
for several一些 million百萬 dollars美元
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需要花他們數百萬美元,
01:41
introduced介紹 CRISPRCRISPR
into a whole整個 panel面板 of human人的 embryos胚胎.
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因為他們要在一整盤的胚胎上
使用 CRISPR 技術,
01:46
And then they used genetic遺傳 testing測試,
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且之後還要進行基因檢測,
01:48
and they predicted預料到的 that
that little tiny embryo, Jenna's珍娜的 embryo,
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並確定篩選出來的小胚胎,珍娜的胚胎,
01:52
would be the best最好 of the bunch.
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會是當中最棒的一個。
01:55
And now, Jenna珍娜 is an actual實際, real真實 person.
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現在,珍娜長大了,
01:58
She's sitting坐在 on the carpet地毯
in your living活的 room房間
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她坐在你家客廳的地毯上,
02:01
playing播放 with your daughter女兒 Marianne瑪麗安.
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跟你女兒瑪麗安一起玩。
02:05
And your families家庭 have known已知
each other for years年份 now,
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你們雙方家庭認識好幾年了,
02:08
and it's become成為 very clear明確 to you
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你們都很清楚,
02:10
that Jenna珍娜 is extraordinary非凡.
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珍娜相當優秀。
02:13
She's incredibly令人難以置信 intelligent智能.
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她聰明絕頂。
02:15
If you're honest誠實 with yourself你自己,
she's smarter聰明 than you,
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如果你夠自覺的話,她的確比你聰明,
02:18
and she's five years年份 old.
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而且她才五歲。
02:21
She's beautiful美麗, tall, athletic競技,
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她長得很漂亮、身材高挑,
又有運動細胞,
02:24
and the list名單 goes on and on.
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還有一大堆說不完的優點。
02:28
And in fact事實, there's
a whole整個 new generation
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實際上,到時候整個世代
02:30
of these GMGM kids孩子 like Jenna珍娜.
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會像珍娜一樣,都是基改小孩。
02:33
And so far it looks容貌 like
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到時候,他們看起來
02:36
they're healthier健康
than their parents'父母' generation,
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似乎比他們父母
那個世代的人更健康,
02:38
than your generation.
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比你這個世代的人更健康。
02:40
And they have lower降低 health健康 care關心 costs成本.
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而且他們的醫療照顧成本也比較低,
02:44
They're immune免疫的 to a host主辦
of health健康 conditions條件,
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他們在健康條件方面,對疾病是免疫的,
02:46
including包含 HIVHIV/AIDS艾滋病 and genetic遺傳 diseases疾病.
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包括愛滋病及其它基因上的疾病。
02:51
It all sounds聲音 so great,
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聽起來相當完美,
02:53
but you can't help but have
this sort分類 of unsettling惴惴 feeling感覺,
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但你難免會有一種不安的感覺。
02:56
a gut腸道 feeling感覺, that there's something
just not quite相當 right about Jenna珍娜,
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一種覺得珍娜好像不太對勁的直覺,
03:02
and you've had the same相同 feeling感覺
about other GMGM kids孩子 that you've met會見.
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而且你對其他你遇到的
基改小孩都有同樣的感受。
03:07
You were also reading
in the newspaper報紙 earlier this week
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那個禮拜稍早,你讀到了一篇新聞,
03:10
that a study研究 of these children孩子
who were born天生 as designer設計師 babies嬰兒
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一篇有關於基因改造小孩的研究,
03:14
indicates指示 they may可能 have some issues問題,
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研究指出他們可能有一些狀況了,
03:16
like increased增加 aggressiveness侵略性
and narcissism自戀狂.
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像是越來越好鬥、自戀。
03:21
But more immediately立即 on your mind心神
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但你腦袋立刻想到的是...
03:23
is some news新聞 that you just got
from Jenna's珍娜的 family家庭.
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你從珍娜家人那邊聽到的事情。
03:27
She's so smart聰明,
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珍娜很聰明,
03:28
she's now going to be going
to a special特別 school學校,
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她準備上特殊學校,
不同於你女兒的學校,
03:31
a different不同 school學校
than your daughter女兒 Marianne瑪麗安,
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03:34
and this is kind of throwing投擲
your family家庭 into a disarray弄亂.
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這件事讓你的家人陷入一場混亂。
03:37
Marianne's瑪麗安 been crying哭了,
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瑪麗安一直哭,
03:39
and last night when you took her to bed
to kiss her goodnight晚安,
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昨晚妳跟女兒在床上道晚安時,
03:42
she said, "Daddy, will Jenna珍娜
even be my friend朋友 anymore?"
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她問你:
「爸爸,珍娜不會再跟我做朋友了嗎?」
03:48
So now, as I've been telling告訴 you
this imagined想像 2030 story故事,
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雖然,我現在說的是
2030年想像出來的場景,
03:52
I have a feeling感覺
that I may可能 have put some of you
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我在想,各位是不是覺得我所說的
03:54
into this sci-fi科幻
frame of reference參考. Right?
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像是一種科幻情節,對吧?
03:57
You think you're reading a sci-fi科幻 book.
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一種好像在讀科幻小說一樣的感覺。
03:59
Or maybe, like,
in Halloween萬聖節 mode模式 of thinking思維.
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或者,像是萬聖節前夕的場景。
04:02
But this is really
a possible可能 reality現實 for us,
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但從現在起15年內,
04:05
just 15 years年份 from now.
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以上是真的有可能發生的。
04:07
I'm a stem cell細胞 and genetics遺傳學 researcher研究員
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我是一位幹細胞基因研究人員,
04:10
and I can see this new CRISPRCRISPR technology技術
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我已經可以看到 CRISPR 這項新技術
04:13
and its potential潛在 impact碰撞.
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它潛在的引響力。
04:15
And we may可能 find ourselves我們自己 in that reality現實,
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而我們人類也許可以
在那個實境當中找到自己,
04:19
and a lot will depend依靠
on what we decide決定 to do today今天.
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而這取決於我們今天所做的決定。
04:23
And if you're still
kind of thinking思維 in sci-fi科幻 mode模式,
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如果你還在想,這有點科幻,
04:26
consider考慮 that the world世界 of science科學
had a huge巨大 shock休克 earlier this year,
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思考一下今年稍早
科學界發生的重大事件,
04:31
and the public上市 largely大部分
doesn't even know about it.
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大部分的人都不知道這件事,
04:33
Researchers研究人員 in China中國 just a few少數 months個月 ago
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幾個月前,中國的研究人員,
04:36
reported報導 the creation創建
of genetically基因 modified改性 human人的 embryos胚胎.
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發表了他們已經創造出
人類基改胚胎。
04:41
This was the first time in history歷史.
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這是史上第一次。
04:44
And they did it using運用
this new CRISPRCRISPR technology技術.
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他們就是運用 CRISPR 這項技術。
04:47
It didn't work perfectly完美,
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雖然做得不怎麼完美,
04:49
but I still think
they sort分類 of cracked破解 the door ajar半掩
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但我在想,
他們已經掀開了潘朵拉盒的秘密了。
04:52
on a Pandora's潘多拉 box here.
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04:56
And I think some people
are going to run with this technology技術
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我認為已經有人要用這項技術
04:59
and try to make designer設計師 babies嬰兒.
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嘗試做出訂製嬰兒。
05:02
Now, before I go on, some of you
may可能 hold保持 up your hands and say,
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在我繼續說明之前,
你們有些人可能會想舉手說,
05:05
"Stop, Paul保羅, wait a minute分鐘.
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「停,保羅,等一下...
05:07
Wouldn't豈不 that be illegal非法?
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這不是不合法的嗎?
05:09
You can't just go off
and create創建 a designer設計師 baby寶寶."
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你不能不管法律,執意要做這件事吧?」
05:13
And in fact事實, to some extent程度, you're right.
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沒錯,在某種程度上,你是對的。
05:15
In some countries國家, you couldn't不能 do that.
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有些國家,你確實不能做。
05:18
But in many許多 other countries國家,
including包含 my country國家, the US,
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但有很多國家,包括我的國家,美國,
05:21
there's actually其實 no law on this,
so in theory理論, you could do it.
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實際上根本都還沒有相關的法律規範,
所以理論上,你可以做。
05:26
And there was another另一個 development發展
this year that resonates共振 in this area,
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今年,在這個領域有另外一個
重要的事件發生,
05:31
and that happened發生
not so far from here over in the UK聯合王國.
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這件事就發生在離這兒不遠的英國。
05:34
And the UK聯合王國 traditionally傳統
has been the strictest嚴格 country國家
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英國傳統上是個非常嚴謹的國家,
05:37
when it comes to human人的
genetic遺傳 modification修改.
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一旦涉及到有關人類的基改問題,
05:40
It was illegal非法 there,
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在英國,是不合法的,
05:42
but just a few少數 months個月 ago,
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但就在幾個月前,
05:44
they carved out an exception例外 to that rule規則.
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他們在這條規則上
增訂了一條豁免條款。
05:46
They passed通過 a new law
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他們通過了一條新的法律,
05:48
allowing允許 the creation創建
of genetically基因 modified改性 humans人類
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有條件允許製造基改人類,
05:51
with the noble高貴 goal目標 of trying
to prevent避免 a rare罕見 kind of genetic遺傳 disease疾病.
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只要你有預防類似
罕見基因疾病這樣的崇高目的。
05:56
But still I think in combination組合
these events事件 are pushing推動 us
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但我依然認為,這些綜合事件,
06:00
further進一步 towards an acceptance驗收
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目的都是要強迫我們接受
06:02
of human人的 genetic遺傳 modification修改.
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人類的基因改造。
06:05
So I've been talking
about this CRISPRCRISPR technology技術.
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我一直在談 CRISPR 技術。
06:08
What actually其實 is CRISPRCRISPR?
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那 CRISPR 到底是甚麼?
06:11
So if you think about the GMOs轉基因生物
that we're all more familiar with,
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如果你想像一下我們都孰悉的基改生物,
06:14
like GMOGMO tomatoes番茄 and wheat小麥
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像是基改的番茄、小麥,
06:17
and things like that,
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等等類似的東西,
06:19
this technology技術
is similar類似 to the technologies技術
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這項技術的原理
就跟我們製造基改食物的技術類似,
06:22
that were used to make those,
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06:24
but it's dramatically顯著 better,
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但它表現得更好,
06:26
cheaper便宜 and faster更快.
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更便宜、更快速。
06:30
So what is it?
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那它的原理是甚麼?
06:31
It's actually其實 like
a genetic遺傳 Swiss瑞士人 army軍隊 knife.
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它有點像是瑞士基因軍用刀。
06:34
We can pretend假裝 this is a Swiss瑞士人 army軍隊 knife
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我們假裝它就是瑞士軍用刀,
06:36
with different不同 tools工具 in it,
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裡面有各種不同的工具,
06:37
and one of the tools工具
is kind of like a magnifying放大 glass玻璃
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其中一個工具像是放大鏡,
06:40
or a GPS全球定位系統 for our DNA脫氧核糖核酸,
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或是說我們 DNA 的導航器,
06:43
so it can home in on a certain某些 spot.
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它可以導引到某個特定的 DNA 位置片段。
06:46
And the next下一個 tool工具 is like scissors剪刀
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下一個工具像是一把剪刀,
06:48
that can cut the DNA脫氧核糖核酸 right in that spot.
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它可以準確地把該位置的
DNA 片段剪下來。
06:51
And finally最後 we have a pen鋼筆
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最後,我們會有一隻筆,
06:53
where we can literally按照字面 rewrite改寫
the genetic遺傳 code in that location位置.
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我們完全可以在截斷點處
重新編寫基因碼。
06:57
It's really that simple簡單.
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真的就這麼簡單。
06:59
And this technology技術, which哪一個 came來了
on the scene現場 just three years年份 ago,
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這項科技,才剛誕生三年,
07:03
has taken採取 science科學 by storm風暴.
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但已經造成科學界的轟動。
07:06
It's evolving進化 so fast快速, and it's
so freaking再用 exciting扣人心弦 to scientists科學家們,
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它演化地相當快,科學家們都相當興奮,
07:10
and I admit承認 I'm fascinated入迷 by it
and we use it in my own擁有 lab實驗室,
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我承認我對這項技術也很著迷,
我們也會在自己的實驗室裡使用它,
07:15
that I think someone有人
is going to go that extra額外 step
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所以我認為已經有人要跨出下一步了,
07:18
and continue繼續 the GMGM human人的 embryo work
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並開始進行人類胚胎的基因改造工程了,
07:21
and maybe make designer設計師 babies嬰兒.
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且很有可能會製造出訂製嬰兒。
07:25
This is so ubiquitous普及 now.
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類似的現象到處都是,
07:26
It just came來了 on the scene現場 three years年份 ago.
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而這只不過才三年的時間,
07:29
Thousands成千上萬 of labs實驗室
literally按照字面 have this in hand today今天,
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已經有好幾千個實驗室掌握了這項技術,
07:33
and they're doing important重要 research研究.
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他們已經開始進行重要的研究。
07:35
Most of them are not interested有興趣
in designer設計師 babies嬰兒.
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他們大部分的人對訂製嬰兒
並不感到興趣。
07:38
They're studying研究 human人的 disease疾病
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他們研究人類的疾病,
07:41
and other important重要 elements分子 of science科學.
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以及其它重要的科學議題。
07:43
So there's a lot of good research研究
going on with CRISPRCRISPR.
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所以,已經有很多、很棒的
有關 CRISPR 技術方面的應用。
07:47
And the fact事實 that we can
now do genetic遺傳 modifications修改
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實際上,我們現在已經可以把
07:50
that used to take years年份
and cost成本 millions百萬 of dollars美元
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過去要花好幾年、
好幾百萬的基改工程,
07:54
in a few少數 weeks
for a couple一對 thousand bucks雄鹿,
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減少到只要花幾個禮拜、
幾千美金就能辦到,
07:57
to me as a scientist科學家 that's fantastic奇妙,
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對我這樣的科學家而言,
這真的太神奇了,
07:59
but again, at the same相同 time,
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但,與此同時,
08:01
it opens打開 the door to people going too far.
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這項技術也會讓人走火入魔。
08:05
And I think for some people
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我認為有些人,
08:06
the focus焦點 is not going to be
so much on science科學.
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並不會把焦點放在科學研究上,
08:09
That's not what's going
to be driving主動 them.
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那些不是驅動他們的原因。
08:11
It's going to be ideology思想
or the chase for a profit利潤.
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驅使他們的會是意識形態或者想賺大錢。
08:16
And they're going to go
for designer設計師 babies嬰兒.
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他們只對訂製嬰兒感興趣。
08:20
So why should we be concerned關心 about this?
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那麼,我們為什麼要在意這件事情?
08:24
We know from Darwin達爾文,
if we go back two centuries百年,
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回到兩個世紀前,從達爾文年代開始,
08:27
that evolution演化 and genetics遺傳學
profoundly深深 have impacted影響 humanity人性,
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我們就知道演化及基因學
深深地引響著人類,
08:31
who we are today今天.
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並造就出我們現在的世界。
08:33
And some think there's like
a social社會 Darwinism達爾文主義 at work in our world世界,
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有些人認為,我們的世界
似乎是由社會達爾文主義運作,
08:37
and maybe even a eugenics優生學 as well.
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甚至也許有優生學主義
在影響著這個世界。
08:40
Imagine想像 those trends趨勢, those forces軍隊,
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想像一下這些趨勢、這股勢力
08:44
with a booster加速器 rocket火箭
of this CRISPRCRISPR technology技術
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加上了 CRISPR 這個
08:47
that is so powerful強大 and so ubiquitous普及.
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無所不在、強大的技術會變成怎樣。
08:51
And in fact事實, we can just go back
one century世紀 to the last century世紀
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實際上,我們只要回到上個世紀,
08:54
to see the power功率 that eugenics優生學 can have.
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就能看到優生學帶來了甚麼影響。
08:58
So my father父親, Peter彼得 KnoepflerKnoepfler,
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我的父親,彼得納佛勒,
09:01
was actually其實 born天生 right here in Vienna維也納.
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就出生在維也納。
09:04
He was Viennese維也納,
and he was born天生 here in 1929.
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他是維也納人,1929年在這出生的。
09:08
And when my grandparents祖父母
had little baby寶寶 Peter彼得,
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當我的爺爺有了我爸爸小彼得,
09:12
the world世界 was very different不同. Right?
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世界又變了樣了,對吧?
09:14
It was a different不同 Vienna維也納.
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維也納變不一樣了。
09:15
The United聯合的 States狀態 was different不同.
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美國也變不一樣了。
09:17
The world世界 was different不同.
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世界變不一樣了。
09:18
There was a eugenics優生學 rising升起,
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當時優生學正在興起,
09:20
and my grandparents祖父母 realized實現,
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我想我爺爺
應該很快就明白,
09:23
pretty漂亮 quickly很快 I think,
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09:24
that they were on the wrong錯誤 side
of the eugenics優生學 equation方程.
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在優生學方面,他們選錯邊站了。
09:28
And so despite儘管 this being存在 their home
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所以除了他們的家人,
09:31
and their whole整個 extended擴展 family's家庭的 home,
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還有整個親戚家族,
09:33
and this area being存在 their family's家庭的
home for generations,
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都被優生學主義影響了好幾世代,
09:37
they decided決定 because of eugenics優生學
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因為優生學,他們必須選擇離開家鄉。
09:40
that they had to leave離開.
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09:42
And they survived倖存,
but they were heartbroken腸斷,
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他們存活下來了,但他們心也碎了,
09:44
and I'm not sure my dad
ever really got over leaving離開 Vienna維也納.
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我不確定我爸是不是真的想離開維也納。
09:49
He left when he was just eight years年份 old
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1938年,他當時才 8 歲。
09:51
in 1938.
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09:54
So today今天, I see a new eugenics優生學
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今日,我看到一個新的優生學
09:57
kind of bubbling冒泡 to the surface表面.
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正浮出檯面。
10:00
It's supposed應該 to be a kinder金德,
gentler溫和, positive eugenics優生學,
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它必須是個仁慈、溫和正面的優生學,
10:05
different不同 than all that past過去 stuff東東.
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一個不同於以往的優生學。
10:08
But I think even though雖然 it's focused重點
on trying to improve提高 people,
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但我認為即使我們把重點
擺在改進人類,
10:12
it could have negative consequences後果,
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很可能也會造成負面的結果,
10:15
and it really worries me
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我真的很擔心,
10:16
that some of the top最佳 proponents支持者
of this new eugenics優生學,
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有一些支持新優生學主義的
頂尖人士認為,
10:19
they think CRISPRCRISPR is the ticket
to make it happen發生.
200
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CRISPR 技術就是他們
訂製嬰兒的入門票。
10:24
So I have to admit承認, you know,
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所以,我必須承認,各位知道,
10:26
eugenics優生學, we talk
about making製造 better people.
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我們談的優生學只是要讓人變好。
10:29
It's a tough強硬 question.
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這是個很難回答的問題,
10:30
What is better when we're talking
about a human人的 being存在?
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一提到人類,哪些才是對人類比較好的?
10:34
But I admit承認 I think maybe a lot of us
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我承認,我們大部分的人
10:37
could agree同意 that human人的 beings眾生,
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應該都會同意
10:40
maybe we could use a little betterment改善.
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1976
我們可以做一些小改善。
10:42
Look at our politicians政治家
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看一下我們的政治人物,
10:44
here, you know, back in the US --
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這邊的、美國的——
10:46
God forbid禁止 we go there right now.
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上帝目前禁止我們這樣做。
10:50
Maybe even if we just look in the mirror鏡子,
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1976
或許如果我們面對著鏡子裡的自己,
10:52
there might威力 be ways方法
we think we could be better.
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我們都會希望有可以讓自己
更好看一點的方法。
10:54
I might威力 wish希望, honestly老老實實, that I had
more hair頭髮 here, instead代替 of baldness禿頭.
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我可能會希望,老實說,
我會希望這邊頭髮多點,不要禿頭。
10:59
Some people might威力 wish希望 they were taller,
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有些人會希望可以再高一些,
11:02
have a different不同 weight重量, a different不同 face面對.
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有個適當的體重、不同的臉蛋。
11:05
If we could do those things,
we could make those things happen發生,
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如果我們要做這些事,
我們就一定能辦到,
11:09
or we could make them happen發生
in our children孩子,
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或者讓我們的孩子擁有這些優點,
11:11
it would be very seductive妖媚.
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這樣真的會很吸引人。
11:14
And yet然而 coming未來 with it
would be these risks風險.
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但這也伴隨了風險。
11:16
I talked about eugenics優生學,
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我談論的優生學,
11:18
but there would be risks風險
to individuals個人 as well.
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對個人而言可能也會造成風險。
11:21
So if we forget忘記 about enhancing提高 people
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先不談改進人類的議題,
11:24
and we just try to make them
healthier健康 using運用 genetic遺傳 modification修改,
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就只是嘗試著用基因改造
來讓人類更健康這件事,
11:28
this technology技術 is so new
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這項技術這麼的新、
11:31
and so powerful強大,
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這麼的強而有力,
11:32
that by accident事故
we could make them sicker病情加重.
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一旦發生意外,我們可能會更容易生病。
11:36
That easily容易 could happen發生.
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這是很有可能會發生的。
11:38
And there's another另一個 risk風險,
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還有另外一個風險,
11:39
and that is that all of the legitimate合法,
important重要 genetic遺傳 modification修改 research研究
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就是所有合法、重要的基改研究
11:44
going on just in the lab實驗室 --
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只能在實驗室進行——
11:46
again, no interest利益 in designer設計師 babies嬰兒 --
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我再強調一次,他們對訂製嬰兒沒興趣——
11:49
a few少數 people going
the designer設計師 baby寶寶 route路線,
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少數人鑽進訂製嬰兒這條路,
11:52
things go badly,
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只會讓事情變糟,
11:53
that entire整個 field領域 could be damaged破損.
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整個產業可能會被摧毀掉。
11:57
I also think it's not that unlikely不會
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我也認為政府
不太可能不對基因改造有興趣。
11:59
that governments政府 might威力 start開始 taking服用
an interest利益 in genetic遺傳 modification修改.
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12:04
So for example our imagined想像 GMGM Jenna珍娜 child兒童
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比如,我們想像的基改小孩珍娜,
12:09
who is healthier健康,
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她是比較健康的,
12:11
if there's a generation that looks容貌
like they have lower降低 health健康 care關心 costs成本,
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如果可以降低一個世代的醫療照顧成本,
12:15
it's possible可能 that governments政府
may可能 start開始 trying to compel迫使 their citizens公民
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那政府很有可能會強制他們的市民
12:19
to go the GMGM route路線.
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走向基改這條路。
12:21
Look at China's中國的 one-child一個小孩 policy政策.
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看一下中國的一胎政策。
12:23
It's thought that that prevented防止
the birth分娩 of 400 million百萬 human人的 beings眾生.
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他們限制了將近四億人口的出生。
12:30
So it's not beyond the realm領域 of possible可能
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所以極有可能
12:33
that genetic遺傳 modification修改
could be something that governments政府 push.
245
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基改工程是由政府來推動的。
12:37
And if designer設計師 babies嬰兒 become成為 popular流行,
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一旦訂製嬰兒變成流行的代名詞,
12:40
in our digital數字 age年齡 --
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在我們這個數位年代——
12:42
viral病毒 videos視頻, social社會 media媒體 --
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病毒式影片,社群媒體——
12:45
what if designer設計師 babies嬰兒
are thought to be fashionable時髦,
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要是訂製嬰兒被認為是
跟得上流行的腳步,
12:47
and they kind of become成為
the new glitterati時髦一族,
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一旦他們變成了新世代的社會名流,
12:50
the new Kardashians卡戴珊 or something?
251
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下一個卡戴珊之類的
12:51
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
12:52
You know, are those trends趨勢
that we really could control控制?
253
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這樣的趨勢我們真能掌控嗎?
12:57
I'm not convinced相信 that we could.
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我不覺得我們有辦法掌控。
13:00
So again, today今天 it's Halloween萬聖節
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我再說一遍,這件事現在看起來像萬聖節前夕,
13:03
and when we talk
about genetic遺傳 modification修改,
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而當我們在談論基因改造時,
13:06
there's one Halloween-associated萬聖節相關 character字符
257
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還有一個萬聖節前夕相關的字眼,
13:09
that is talked about
or invoked調用 more than anything else其他,
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而且常常被人提到的,
13:12
and that is Frankenstein科學怪人.
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就是「自掘墳墓」。
13:14
Mostly大多 that's been Frankenfoods弗蘭肯
and all this other stuff東東.
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像是基因改造食品這樣
被很多人懷疑的東西等等,
13:19
But if we think about this now
and we think about it in the human人的 context上下文
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但如果我們現在好好思考,
想像人類有這麼一天,
13:23
on a day like Halloween萬聖節,
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比如像是聖誕夜前夕的情節,
13:24
if parents父母 can in essence本質
costume服裝 their children孩子 genetically基因,
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如果父母已經可以訂製他們的基改小孩,
13:30
are we going to be talking about
a Frankenstein科學怪人 2.0 kind of situation情況?
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我們現在談論的會不會就是
人類「自掘墳墓2.0版本」的情節?
13:36
I don't think so. I don't think
it's going to get to that extreme極端.
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我想應該不至於會
走到那樣極端的地步。
13:39
But when we are going about
hacking黑客 the human人的 code,
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但一旦我們準備開始
竄改人類的基因編碼,
13:43
I think all bets賭注 are off
in terms條款 of what might威力 come of that.
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進了賭場,就一番兩瞪眼了。
13:46
There would still be dangers危險.
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還是很危險的。
13:49
And we can look in the past過去
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我們可以回顧一下歷史,
13:51
to other elements分子
of transformative變革 science科學
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仔細觀察科技變革所帶來的影響,
13:53
and see how they can
basically基本上 go out of control控制
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並看看它們是如何失去控制
13:57
and permeate滲透 society社會.
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並瀰漫到整個社會的。
13:59
So I'll just give you one example,
and that is in vitro體外 fertilization受精.
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我就給各位舉個例子,人工授精。
14:04
Almost幾乎 exactly究竟 40 years年份 ago,
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大約在 40 年前,
14:08
test測試 tube baby寶寶 number one
Louise路易絲 Brown棕色 was born天生,
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史上第一個試管嬰兒
路易斯布朗誕生了,
14:11
and that's a great thing,
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這是一件很偉大的事,
14:13
and I think since以來 then
five million百萬 IVFIVF babies嬰兒 have been born天生,
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我在想在那之後,
大約有500萬個試管嬰兒誕生,
14:18
bringing使 immeasurable不可計量的 happiness幸福.
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帶來了無限的幸福,
14:20
A lot of parents父母 now can love those kids孩子.
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讓很多雙親都可以享天倫之樂。
14:23
But if you think about it,
in four decades幾十年,
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但如果你仔細想想,才40年的時間,
14:25
five million百萬 babies嬰兒 being存在 born天生
from a new technology技術
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新科技就為我們帶來了 500 萬個寶寶,
14:29
is pretty漂亮 remarkable卓越,
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真的很了不起,
14:31
and the same相同 kind of thing could happen發生
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同樣的狀況也有可能
14:33
with human人的 genetic遺傳 modification修改
and designer設計師 babies嬰兒.
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在基改人類與訂製嬰兒上發生。
14:37
So depending根據 on the decisions決定
we make in the next下一個 few少數 months個月,
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接下來幾個月或幾年的變化,
都取決於我們今日所做的決定,
14:40
the next下一個 year or so,
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14:41
if designer設計師 baby寶寶 number one is born天生,
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如果第一個訂製嬰兒出生,
14:44
within a few少數 decades幾十年,
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只要幾十年的時間,
14:46
there could well be millions百萬
of genetically基因 modified改性 humans人類.
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可能就有上百萬的基改人類誕生。
14:49
And there's a difference區別 there too,
because if we, you in the audience聽眾, or I,
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但這有點差別,因為如果我們、
台下的你或者是我...
14:54
if we decide決定 to have a designer設計師 baby寶寶,
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如果我們都決定要訂製嬰兒,
14:57
then their children孩子 will also
be genetically基因 modified改性, and so on,
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他們的後代也會被基因改造,一代接一代...
15:01
because it's heritable遺傳.
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因為它會一直遺傳下去,
15:02
So that's a big difference區別.
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這就大不同了。
所以仔細想想,
15:05
So with all of this in mind心神,
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15:07
what should we do?
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我們該怎麼做?
15:10
There's actually其實 going to be a meeting會議
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實際上,從明天開始,下一個月
15:11
a month from tomorrow明天 in Washington華盛頓, D.C.
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在華盛頓哥倫比亞特區有一場會議,
15:14
by the US National國民 Academy學院 of Sciences科學
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這場會議是由美國國家科學院舉辦,
15:16
to tackle滑車 that exact精確 question.
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會議主旨就是要解決這些問題。
15:19
What is the right path路徑 forward前鋒
with human人的 genetic遺傳 modification修改?
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人類的基因改造之路
應該怎麼走才是正確的?
15:24
I believe at this time
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我相信在這個節骨眼,
15:26
we need a moratorium暫停.
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我們需要再緩一緩。
15:27
We have to ban禁止 this.
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我們必須先禁止會議的進行。
15:29
We should not allow允許
creating創建 genetically基因 modified改性 people,
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我們不應該允許基改人類的誕生,
15:33
because it's just too dangerous危險
and too unpredictable不可預料的.
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因為太危險、太無法預測了。
15:37
But there's a lot of people --
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但,有很多人——
15:38
(Applause掌聲)
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(掌聲)
15:40
Thanks謝謝.
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謝謝。
15:41
(Applause掌聲)
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(掌聲)
15:47
And let me say, just as a scientist科學家,
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說真的,身為一位科學家,
15:50
it's a little bit scary害怕
for me to say that in public上市,
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我實在有點害怕在大眾面前講出這件事,
15:52
because science科學 generally通常 doesn't like
self-regulation自我調節 and things like that.
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因為科學的發展普遍都不會
自我設限或自我規範之類的。
15:59
So I think we need to put a hold保持 on this,
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所以,我認為基改人類這件事,
我們還要再等等,
16:02
but there are many許多 people
who not only disagree不同意 with me,
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但很多人並不同意我的觀點,
16:05
they feel the exact精確 opposite對面.
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他們完全是相反的。
16:06
They're like, step on the gas加油站,
full充分 speed速度 ahead,
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他們像是,馬力全開,全力衝刺,
16:10
let's make designer設計師 babies嬰兒.
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讓我們開始製造訂製嬰兒吧!
16:11
And so in the meeting會議 in December十二月
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所以,12 月的會議,
16:14
and other meetings會議 that are likely容易
to follow跟隨 in the next下一個 few少數 months個月,
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以及接下來幾個月類似的會議,
16:18
it's very possible可能
there may可能 be no moratorium暫停.
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很有可能我們再也沒有機會可以延緩了。
16:21
And I think part部分
of the problem問題 that we have
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我認為這個問題的部分原因
16:24
is that all of this trend趨勢,
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是這樣的趨勢,
16:26
this revolution革命 in genetic遺傳 modification修改
applying應用 to humans人類,
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在人體上做基因改造的變革,
16:30
the public上市 hasn't有沒有 known已知 about it.
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社會大眾根本都不知道有這些事,
16:32
Nobody沒有人 has been saying,
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沒有人站出來說,
16:34
look, this is a big deal合同,
this is a revolution革命,
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等等,這是很重大的決定,重大的變革,
16:38
and this could affect影響 you
in very personal個人 ways方法.
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而這會造成每個人不同程度的影響。
16:40
And so part部分 of my goal目標
is actually其實 to change更改 that
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所以我其中的目標是希望
可以改變這件事,
16:43
and to educate教育 and engage從事 with the public上市
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並教育大眾、呼籲大眾
16:46
and get you guys talking about this.
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邀請所有人一起來討論這件事。
16:49
And so I hope希望 at these meetings會議
that there will be a role角色 for the public上市
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所以,我希望在這些會議中,
能有大眾參與的空間,
16:53
to bring帶來 their voice語音 to bear as well.
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讓大眾的聲音也能被聽見。
16:57
So if we kind of circle back now
to 2030 again, that imagined想像 story故事,
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讓我們回到 2030 年的故事場景,
17:03
and depending根據 on the decisions決定
we make, again, today今天 --
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由於我們所做的決定,
我再說一遍,今日——
17:06
literally按照字面 we don't have a lot of time --
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基本上我們時間不多了——
17:08
in the next下一個 few少數 months個月,
the next下一個 year or so,
337
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無論接下來幾個月、幾年...
17:10
because this technology技術
is spreading傳播 like wildfire磷火.
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因為這項科技已經像
野火般地蔓延開來了。
17:13
Let's pretend假裝 we're back in that reality現實.
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讓我們假裝回到了那個真實的場景,
17:16
We're at a park公園,
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我們在公園裡,
17:18
and our kid孩子 is swinging擺盪 on the swing搖擺.
341
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我們的孩子正在盪鞦韆。
17:22
Is that kid孩子 a regular定期 old kid孩子,
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我們的小孩會是正常的小孩?
17:25
or did we decide決定 to have a designer設計師 baby寶寶?
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或者,我們決定要一個訂製的小孩呢?
17:28
And let's say we went
the sort分類 of traditional傳統 route路線,
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又或者,我們選擇了傳統的道路,
17:32
and there's our kid孩子 swinging擺盪 on the swing搖擺,
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我們的孩子一樣在盪鞦韆,
17:34
and frankly坦率地說, they're kind of a mess食堂.
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坦白說,他們很會把自己弄髒,
17:37
Their hair頭髮 is all over
the place地點 like mine.
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他們的頭髮跟我一樣多,
17:40
They have a stuffy nose鼻子.
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鼻子還留著鼻涕。
17:42
They're not the best最好 student學生 in the world世界.
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他們不是世上最好的學生。
17:45
They're adorable可愛的, you love them,
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但他們很可愛,你很愛他們,
17:47
but there on the swing搖擺 next下一個 to them,
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1936
但隔壁鞦韆上的孩子,
17:49
their best最好 friend朋友 is a GMGM kid孩子,
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他們最好的朋友是一位基改過的孩子,
17:52
and the two of them
are kind of swinging擺盪 like this,
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兩個都在盪鞦韆,
17:54
and you can't help
but compare比較 them, right?
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你會忍不住比較,對吧?
17:56
And the GMGM kid孩子 is swinging擺盪 higher更高,
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基改的小朋友盪得比較高,
17:59
they look better,
they're a better student學生,
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他們長得比我孩子好看,功課又比他好,
18:01
they don't have that stuffy nose鼻子
you need to wipe擦拭.
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你不用擦鼻涕,因為他們不會流鼻涕。
18:04
How is that going to make you feel
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你當下會有怎樣的感受?
18:06
and what decision決定
might威力 you make next下一個 time?
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如果再一次,你會做出甚麼樣的決定?
18:10
Thank you.
360
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謝謝。
18:12
(Applause掌聲)
361
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(掌聲)
Translated by Yi-Fan Yu
Reviewed by jackson leo

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Paul Knoepfler - Biologist
Paul Knoepfler is a biomedical scientist and writer focusing on stem cells and genetics.

Why you should listen

Dr. Paul Knoepfler loves stem cells. He is working to figure out how we use safely them to treat many diseases and how stem cells sometimes turn to the dark side to cause cancer. Over the years he has made key discoveries about how stem cells and cancer are programmed. Now he is especially interested in how to hack these cells to control their behavior, including using powerful CRISPR genetic modification technology.

Knoepfler has also been a leading voice in the discussion about how CRISPR could be used to make designer babies and the risks of going down that path. He is a professor of cell biology and anatomy at UC Davis School of Medicine in California, where he both does research and teaches. In addition, he is a prolific writer including his popular science blog, The Niche, and two books: Stem Cells: An Insider's Guide and GMO Sapiens: The Life-Changing Science of Designer Babies. He is excited about contributing to efforts to build an innovative, global community of interconnected people with a shared passion for biomedical science and battling fake science. Knoepfler’s outspoken, approachable nature in tackling some of the most transformative questions in science has made him a go-to scientist for journalists and ordinary people across the globe.

More profile about the speaker
Paul Knoepfler | Speaker | TED.com

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