TEDGlobal 2010
Matt Ridley: When ideas have sex
Når idéer dyrker sex
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På TEDGlobal 2010 viste forfatteren Matt Ridley, hvordan drivkraften bag menneskelige fremskridt altid har været mødet mellem og parringen af idéer, hvorved nye idéer avles. Det er ikke vigtigt, hvor intelligente individer er, siger han, det, det kommer an på, er, hvor smart den kollektive hjerne er.
Matt Ridley - Rational optimist
Matt Ridley argues that, through history, the engine of human progress and prosperity has been, and is, "ideas having sex with each other." Full bio
Matt Ridley argues that, through history, the engine of human progress and prosperity has been, and is, "ideas having sex with each other." Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
When I was a student here in Oxford in the 1970s,
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Da jeg studerede her i Oxford i 1970erne,
00:19
the future of the world was bleak.
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så Verdens fremtid ikke godt ud.
00:22
The population explosion was unstoppable.
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Befolkningstilvæksten var ustoppelig.
00:24
Global famine was inevitable.
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Global hungersnød var uundgåelig.
00:26
A cancer epidemic caused by chemicals in the environment
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En cancerepidemi, forårsaget af kemikalier i miljøet,
00:29
was going to shorten our lives.
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ville forkorte vores liv.
00:32
The acid rain was falling on the forests.
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Syreregnen faldt på skovene.
00:35
The desert was advancing by a mile or two a year.
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Ørkenen spredte sig med to-tre km om året.
00:37
The oil was running out,
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Olien var ved at slippe op.
00:39
and a nuclear winter would finish us off.
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Og en atomvinter ville gøre en ende på os.
00:42
None of those things happened,
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Intet af det skete.
00:44
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
00:46
and astonishingly, if you look at what actually happened in my lifetime,
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Og forbløffende nok, hvis man ser på, hvad der faktisk er sket i min livstid,
00:49
the average per-capita income
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så er gennemsnitsindkomsten
00:52
of the average person on the planet,
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for gennemsnitsindbyggeren på denne planet
00:54
in real terms, adjusted for inflation,
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i faste priser og justeret for inflation;
00:56
has tripled.
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tredoblet.
00:58
Lifespan is up by 30 percent in my lifetime.
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I løbet af min livstid er levealderen øget med 30 procent.
01:01
Child mortality is down by two-thirds.
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Børnedødeligheden er faldet med to trediedele.
01:04
Per-capita food production
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Fødevareproduktionen pr. indbygger
01:06
is up by a third.
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er øget med en trediedel.
01:08
And all this at a time when the population has doubled.
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Og alt dette samtidig med, at befolkningstallet er fordoblet.
01:11
How did we achieve that, whether you think it's a good thing or not?
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Hvordan opnåede vi det - hvad end du mener, det er en god ting eller ej -
01:13
How did we achieve that?
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hvordan opnåede vi det?
01:15
How did we become
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Hvordan blev vi
01:17
the only species
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den eneste art,
01:19
that becomes more prosperous
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der bliver mere velstående
01:21
as it becomes more populous?
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samtidig med, at befolkningen øges?
01:23
The size of the blob in this graph represents the size of the population,
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Plettens størrelse i denne graf, repræsenterer befolkningens størrelse.
01:26
and the level of the graph
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Og højden af grafen
01:28
represents GDP per capita.
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repræsenterer BNP pr. indbygger.
01:30
I think to answer that question
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Jeg tror, at for at besvare det spørgsmål,
01:32
you need to understand
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må man først forstå,
01:34
how human beings bring together their brains
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hvordan mennesker kobler sine hjerner sammen
01:37
and enable their ideas to combine and recombine,
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og derved muliggør kombinationer af idéer,
01:40
to meet and, indeed, to mate.
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deres møde og ja; deres parring.
01:43
In other words, you need to understand
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Med andre ord, man skal forstå,
01:45
how ideas have sex.
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hvordan idéer dyrker sex.
01:48
I want you to imagine
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Du skal forestille dig,
01:50
how we got from making objects like this
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hvordan vi kom fra at lave ting, som denne
01:53
to making objects like this.
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til at lave ting, som denne.
01:56
These are both real objects.
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De er begge ægte ting.
01:58
One is an Acheulean hand axe from half a million years ago
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Den ene er en halv million år gammel acheulean håndøkse
02:00
of the kind made by Homo erectus.
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af den slags, Homo erectus lavede.
02:03
The other is obviously a computer mouse.
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Den anden er naturligvis en computermus.
02:05
They're both exactly the same size and shape to an uncanny degree.
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I en utrolig grad har de præcis samme størrelse og form.
02:08
I've tried to work out which is bigger,
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Jeg har prøvet at beregne, hvilken af dem er størst,
02:11
and it's almost impossible.
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og det er næsten umuligt.
02:13
And that's because they're both designed to fit the human hand.
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Og det er fordi, de begge er designede til at passe til en menneskehånd.
02:15
They're both technologies. In the end, their similarity is not that interesting.
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De er begge teknologier. I sidste ende er deres lighed ikke så interessant.
02:18
It just tells you they were both designed to fit the human hand.
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Den fortæller blot, at begge var designede til at passe til en menneskehånd.
02:20
The differences are what interest me,
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Forskellene er, hvad interesserer mig.
02:22
because the one on the left was made to a pretty unvarying design
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Fordi, den til venstre blev lavet efter et temmelig uvarieret design
02:25
for about a million years --
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i omkring en million år -
02:27
from one-and-a-half million years ago to half a million years ago.
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fra 1½ millioner til ½ millioner år siden.
02:30
Homo erectus made the same tool
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Homo erectus lavede det samme redskab
02:33
for 30,000 generations.
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i 30.000 generationer.
02:35
Of course there were a few changes,
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Selvfølgelig var der nogle få forandringer,
02:37
but tools changed slower than skeletons in those days.
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men redskaber ændrede sig langsommere end skeletter dengang.
02:40
There was no progress, no innovation.
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Der var intet fremskridt, ingen innovation.
02:42
It's an extraordinary phenomenon, but it's true.
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Det er et usædvanligt fænomen, men det er rigtigt.
02:44
Whereas the object on the right is obsolete after five years.
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Derimod er tingen til højre forældet efter fem år.
02:47
And there's another difference too,
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Og der er endnu en forskel;
02:49
which is the object on the left is made from one substance.
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tingen til venstre er fremstillet af ét materiale.
02:51
The object on the right is made from
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Tingen til højre er lavet af
02:53
a confection of different substances,
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en blanding af forskellige materialer,
02:55
from silicon and metal and plastic and so on.
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af silikone og metal og plastik osv.
02:58
And more than that, it's a confection of different ideas,
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Og mere end det, den er en blanding af forskellige idéer,
03:01
the idea of plastic, the idea of a laser,
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idéeen om plastik, idéen om laser,
03:03
the idea of transistors.
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idéen om transistorer.
03:05
They've all been combined together in this technology.
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De er alle blevet kombineret i denne teknologi.
03:08
And it's this combination,
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Og det er denne kombination,
03:10
this cumulative technology, that intrigues me,
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denne kumulative teknologi, der fascinerer mig.
03:13
because I think it's the secret to understanding
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Fordi, jeg tror, den er hemmeligheden bag forståelsen af,
03:16
what's happening in the world.
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hvad der sker i Verden.
03:18
My body's an accumulation of ideas too:
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Min krop er også en samling af idéer,
03:21
the idea of skin cells, the idea of brain cells, the idea of liver cells.
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idéen om hudceller, idéen om hjerneceller, idéen om leverceller.
03:24
They've come together.
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De er blevet sat sammen.
03:26
How does evolution do cumulative, combinatorial things?
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Hvordan laver evolutionen kumulative kombinerede ting?
03:29
Well, it uses sexual reproduction.
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Ja, den bruger seksuel reproduktion.
03:32
In an asexual species, if you get two different mutations in different creatures,
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Hvis en ikke-seksuel art laver to mutationer i forskellige individer,
03:35
a green one and a red one,
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en grøn og en rød,
03:37
then one has to be better than the other.
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så må den ene være bedre end den anden.
03:39
One goes extinct for the other to survive.
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Den ene overlever på bekostning af den andens uddøen.
03:41
But if you have a sexual species,
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Men hvis du har en seksuel art,
03:43
then it's possible for an individual
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så er det muligt for et individ
03:45
to inherit both mutations
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at arve begge mutationer
03:47
from different lineages.
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fra forskellige slægter.
03:49
So what sex does is it enables the individual
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Så det sex gør er, at give individet mulighed for,
03:52
to draw upon
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at drage fordele af
03:54
the genetic innovations of the whole species.
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hele artens genetiske innovationer.
03:57
It's not confined to its own lineage.
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Det er ikke begrænset til sin egen slægt.
03:59
What's the process that's having the same effect
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Hvilken proces har en tilsvarende effekt
04:01
in cultural evolution
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i en kulturel evolution,
04:03
as sex is having in biological evolution?
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som sex har i den biologiske evolution?
04:06
And I think the answer is exchange,
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Jeg tror, svaret er udveksling,
04:08
the habit of exchanging one thing for another.
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sædvanen med at bytte en ting for en anden.
04:11
It's a unique human feature.
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Det er et unikt menneskeligt træk.
04:13
No other animal does it.
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Ingen andre dyr gør det.
04:15
You can teach them in the laboratory to do a little bit of exchange --
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I laboratoriet kan man lære dem en lille smule bytteri.
04:17
and indeed there's reciprocity in other animals --
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Og der er bestemt vekselvirkninger mellem andre dyr.
04:19
But the exchange of one object for another never happens.
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Men udvekslingen af en ting for en anden sker aldrig.
04:22
As Adam Smith said, "No man ever saw a dog
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Som Adam Smith sagde: "Ingen har nogensinde set en hund
04:24
make a fair exchange of a bone with another dog."
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lave en fair bytning af kødben med en anden hund."
04:27
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
04:30
You can have culture without exchange.
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Man kan have kultur uden bytteri.
04:32
You can have, as it were, asexual culture.
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Man kan have aseksuel kultur.
04:34
Chimpanzees, killer whales, these kinds of creatures, they have culture.
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Chimpanser, dræberhvaler, disse skabninger har kultur.
04:37
They teach each other traditions
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De lærer hinanden traditioner,
04:39
which are handed down from parent to offspring.
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der går i arv fra forældre til afkom.
04:41
In this case, chimpanzees teaching each other
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I dette tilfælde lærer chimpanser hinanden,
04:43
how to crack nuts with rocks.
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hvordan man knækker nødder med sten.
04:45
But the difference is
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Men forskellen er,
04:47
that these cultures never expand, never grow,
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at disse kulturer aldrig udvider sig, aldrig vokser,
04:49
never accumulate, never become combinatorial,
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aldrig akkumulerer, aldrig bliver kombinatoriske.
04:51
and the reason is because
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Og grunden er,
04:53
there is no sex, as it were,
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at der ikke er noget sex,
04:55
there is no exchange of ideas.
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der er ingen udveksling af idéer.
04:57
Chimpanzee troops have different cultures in different troops.
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Chimpanseflokke har forskellige kulturer i forskellige flokke.
05:00
There's no exchange of ideas between them.
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Der er ingen udveksling af idéer mellem dem.
05:03
And why does exchange raise living standards?
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Hvorfor øger udveksling levestandarden?
05:05
Well, the answer came from David Ricardo in 1817.
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Ja, svaret kom fra David Ricardo i 1817.
05:08
And here is a Stone Age version of his story,
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Og her er en stenalderversion af hans historie,
05:10
although he told it in terms of trade between countries.
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selvom han fortalte den m.h.t. handel mellem lande.
05:13
Adam takes four hours to make a spear and three hours to make an axe.
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Det tager Adam fire timer at lave et spyd og tre timer at lave en økse.
05:16
Oz takes one hour to make a spear and two hours to make an axe.
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Det tager Oz en time at lave et spyd og to timer at lave en økse.
05:19
So Oz is better at both spears and axes than Adam.
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Så Oz er bedre til at lave både spyd og økser end Adam.
05:22
He doesn't need Adam.
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Han har ikke brug for Adam.
05:24
He can make his own spears and axes.
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Han kan lave sine egne spyd og økser.
05:26
Well no, because if you think about it,
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Men egentlig ikke, fordi hvis man tænker over det,
05:28
if Oz makes two spears and Adam make two axes,
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hvis Oz laver to spyd, og Adam laver to økser,
05:30
and then they trade,
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og de bytter med hinanden,
05:32
then they will each have saved an hour of work.
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så har de hver sparet en times arbejde.
05:35
And the more they do this, the more true it's going to be,
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Og jo mere de gør dette, jo mere rigtigt bliver det.
05:38
because the more they do this, the better Adam is going to get at making axes
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Fordi, jo mere de gør dette, jo dygtigere bliver Adam til at lave økser,
05:41
and the better Oz is going to get at making spears.
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og jo bedre bliver Oz til at lave spyd.
05:43
So the gains from trade are only going to grow.
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Så fordelene ved at bytte kommer kun til at vokse.
05:45
And this is one of the beauties of exchange,
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Og dette er en af skønhederne ved bytteri,
05:47
is it actually creates the momentum
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det skaber faktisk den drivende kraft
05:49
for more specialization,
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til mere specialisering,
05:51
which creates the momentum for more exchange and so on.
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der skaber den drivende kraft til mere udveksling osv.
05:54
Adam and Oz both saved an hour of time.
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Adam og Oz sparede begge en times arbejde.
05:56
That is prosperity, the saving of time
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At spare tid på opfyldelse af ens behov,
05:58
in satisfying your needs.
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det er velstand.
06:01
Ask yourself how long you would have to work
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Spørg dig selv hvor længe du skulle arbejde
06:03
to provide for yourself
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for at tilvejebringe
06:06
an hour of reading light this evening to read a book by.
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en times lys at læse en bog ved i aften.
06:09
If you had to start from scratch, let's say you go out into the countryside.
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Hvis du skulle starte fra bunden, lad os sige, du tager ud på landet.
06:12
You find a sheep. You kill it. You get the fat out of it.
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Du finder et får. Du dræber det. Du tager fedtet fra.
06:14
You render it down. You make a candle, etc. etc.
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Du afsmelter det. Du laver et lys, osv., osv.
06:17
How long is it going to take you? Quite a long time.
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Hvor længe vil det tage dig? Ret længe!
06:19
How long do you actually have to work
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I hvor lang tid skal du egentlig arbejde
06:21
to earn an hour of reading light
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for at tjene en times læselys,
06:23
if you're on the average wage in Britain today?
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hvis du tjener en gennemsnitsløn i Storbritannien idag?
06:25
And the answer is about half a second.
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Og svaret er; ca. et sekund.
06:28
Back in 1950,
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Tilbage i 1950
06:30
you would have had to work for eight seconds on the average wage
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skulle du arbejde i otte sekunder til en gennemsnitsløn
06:32
to acquire that much light.
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for at erhverve dig den mængde lys.
06:34
And that's seven and a half seconds of prosperity that you've gained
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Og det er 7½ sekunders velstand, du har tjent.
06:37
since 1950, as it were,
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Siden 1950.
06:39
because that's seven and a half seconds in which you can do something else,
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Fordi, det er 7½ sekunder, du kan bruge på at lave noget andet.
06:42
or you can acquire another good or service.
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Eller du kan erhverve dig en anden vare eller service.
06:44
And back in 1880,
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Og tilbage i 1880
06:46
it would have been 15 minutes
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ville det have taget 15 minutter
06:48
to earn that amount of light on the average wage.
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at tjene til den mængde lys på en gennemsnitsløn.
06:50
Back in 1800,
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Tilbage i år 1800
06:52
you'd have had to work six hours
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skulle du arbejde i 6 timer
06:54
to earn a candle that could burn for an hour.
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for at tjene til et lys, der kunne brænde i en time.
06:57
In other words, the average person on the average wage
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Med andre ord, en gennemsnitsperson med en gennemsnitsløn
06:59
could not afford a candle in 1800.
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havde ikke råd til et lys i år 1800.
07:02
Go back to this image of the axe and the mouse,
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Vend tilbage til dette billede af øksen og musen
07:05
and ask yourself: "Who made them and for who?"
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og spørg dig selv: "Hvem lavede dem og til hvem?"
07:08
The stone axe was made by someone for himself.
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Stenøksen blev lavet af en eller anden til ham selv.
07:10
It was self-sufficiency.
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Det var selvforsyning.
07:12
We call that poverty these days.
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Idag kalder vi det fattigdom.
07:14
But the object on the right
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Men tingen til højre
07:16
was made for me by other people.
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blev lavet til mig af andre mennesker.
07:19
How many other people?
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Hvor mange andre mennesker?
07:21
Tens? Hundreds? Thousands?
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Ti? Hundreder? Tusinder?
07:23
You know, I think it's probably millions.
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Ved du hvad, jeg tror, det formentlig er millioner.
07:25
Because you've got to include the man who grew the coffee,
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For man må medregne manden, der dyrkede kaffen,
07:27
which was brewed for the man who was on the oil rig,
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der blev brygget til manden på boreplatformen,
07:30
who was drilling for oil, which was going to be made into the plastic, etc.
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ham, der borede efter olien, der blev lavet til plastik, osv.
07:33
They were all working for me,
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De arbejdede alle for mig,
07:35
to make a mouse for me.
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for at fremstille en mus til mig.
07:37
And that's the way society works.
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Og sådan fungerer samfundet.
07:40
That's what we've achieved as a species.
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Det er det, vi som art har opnået.
07:44
In the old days, if you were rich,
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I gamle dage, hvis man var rig,
07:46
you literally had people working for you.
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havde man bogstavelig talt folk til at arbejde for sig.
07:48
That's how you got to be rich; you employed them.
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Det var sådan, man blev rig; man hyrede folk.
07:50
Louis XIV had a lot of people working for him.
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Louis XIV havde mange mennesker til at arbejde for sig.
07:52
They made his silly outfits, like this,
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De fremstillede hans fjollede tøj, som dette.
07:54
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
07:56
and they did his silly hairstyles, or whatever.
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Og de satte hans fjollede frisurer eller noget.
07:59
He had 498 people
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Han havde 498 folk,
08:01
to prepare his dinner every night.
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til at tilberede sit måltid hver aften.
08:03
But a modern tourist going around the palace of Versailles
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Men en moderne turist, der besøger paladset i Versailles
08:05
and looking at Louis XIV's pictures,
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og ser på Louis XIVs billeder,
08:08
he has 498 people doing his dinner tonight too.
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har også 498 folk til at tilberede sit aftenmåltid.
08:10
They're in bistros and cafes and restaurants
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De er i bistroer og caféer og restauranter
08:12
and shops all over Paris,
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og butikker i hele Paris.
08:14
and they're all ready to serve you at an hour's notice with an excellent meal
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Og med kort varsel står de alle klar til at servere dig et fremragende måltid,
08:17
that's probably got higher quality
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der formentlig er af højere kvalitet,
08:19
than Louis XIV even had.
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end selv Loius XIV fik.
08:21
And that's what we've done, because we're all working for each other.
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Og det er det, vi har opnået, fordi vi alle arbejder for hinanden.
08:24
We're able to draw upon specialization and exchange
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Vi kan drage nytte af specialisering og udveksling
08:27
to raise each other's living standards.
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og dermed øge hinandens levestandarder.
08:30
Now, you do get other animals working for each other too.
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Nuvel, man ser også andre dyr, der arbejder for hinanden.
08:33
Ants are a classic example; workers work for queens and queens work for workers.
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Myrer er et klassisk eksempel; arbejdere arbejder for dronninger og dronninger arbejder for arbejdere.
08:36
But there's a big difference,
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Men der er en stor forskel,
08:38
which is that it only happens within the colony.
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nemlig at det udelukkende sker indenfor kolonien.
08:40
There's no working for each other across the colonies.
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De arbejder ikke for hinanden kolonierne imellem.
08:42
And the reason for that is because there's a reproductive division of labor.
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Og grunden til det er, at avlsarbejdet er opdelt.
08:45
That is to say, they specialize with respect to reproduction.
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Det vil sige, de specialiserer sig m.h.t. reproduktion.
08:48
The queen does it all.
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Dronningen står for det hele.
08:50
In our species, we don't like doing that.
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Indenfor vores art kan vi ikke lide det sådan.
08:52
It's the one thing we insist on doing for ourselves, is reproduction.
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Dét er det eneste vi insisterer på at gøre selv, vi reproducerer os selv.
08:55
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
08:58
Even in England, we don't leave reproduction to the Queen.
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Selv i England overlader vi ikke reproduktionen til dronningen.
09:01
(Applause)
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(Bifald)
09:05
So when did this habit start?
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Så hvornår begyndte denne vane?
09:07
And how long has it been going on? And what does it mean?
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Og hvor længe har det stået på? Og hvad betyder det?
09:09
Well, I think, probably, the oldest version of this
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Ja, jeg tror, at det ældste eksempel
09:12
is probably the sexual division of labor.
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formentlig er det kønsopdelte arbejde.
09:14
But I've got no evidence for that.
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Men det har jeg ikke noget bevis for.
09:16
It just looks like the first thing we did
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Det ser blot ud som om, at det første vi foretog os var,
09:18
was work male for female and female for male.
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at hanner arbejdede for hunner og hunner arbejdede for hanner.
09:21
In all hunter-gatherer societies today,
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I alle jagt- og samlersamfund idag,
09:23
there's a foraging division of labor
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er der arbejdsdeling indenfor anskaffelse af mad,
09:25
between, on the whole, hunting males and gathering females.
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stort set med hanner, der jager og hunner, der samler.
09:27
It isn't always quite that simple,
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Det er ikke altid helt så simpelt.
09:29
but there's a distinction between
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Men der er en skelnen mellem
09:31
specialized roles for males and females.
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specialiserede roller for mænd og kvinder.
09:33
And the beauty of this system
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Og skønheden ved dette system er,
09:35
is that it benefits both sides.
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at det kommer begge parter til gode.
09:38
The woman knows
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Kvinden ved,
09:40
that, in the Hadzas' case here --
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som her i Hadzas-stammens tilfælde,
09:42
digging roots to share with men in exchange for meat --
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at rødder kan graves op og byttes for kød.
09:44
she knows that all she has to do to get access to protein
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Hun ved, at alt hun skal gøre for at få adgang til proteiner er,
09:47
is to dig some extra roots and trade them for meat.
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at grave nogle ekstra rødder op og bytte dem for kød.
09:50
And she doesn't have to go on an exhausting hunt
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Og hun behøver ikke gå på en udmattende jagt
09:52
and try and kill a warthog.
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for at prøve at nedlægge et vildsvin.
09:54
And the man knows that he doesn't have to do any digging
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Og manden ved, han ikke behøver at grave
09:56
to get roots.
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for at få rødder.
09:58
All he has to do is make sure that when he kills a warthog
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Alt han behøver at sørge for er, at vildsvinet, han dræber,
10:00
it's big enough to share some.
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er stort nok til at dele.
10:02
And so both sides raise each other's standards of living
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Og derved øger begge parter hinandens levestandarder
10:05
through the sexual division of labor.
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gennem den kønsbaserede arbejdsdeling.
10:07
When did this happen? We don't know, but it's possible
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Hvornår begyndte dette? Vi ved det ikke, men det er muligt,
10:10
that Neanderthals didn't do this.
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at neandertalerne ikke gjorde det.
10:12
They were a highly cooperative species.
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De var en yderst samarbejdsvillig art.
10:14
They were a highly intelligent species.
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De var en yderst intelligent art.
10:16
Their brains on average, by the end, were bigger than yours and mine
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Hen mod slutningen var deres hjerner i gennemsnit større end din og min
10:18
in this room today.
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i dette lokale idag.
10:20
They were imaginative. They buried their dead.
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De var fantasifulde. De begravede deres døde.
10:22
They had language, probably,
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De havde sandsynligvis sprog,
10:24
because we know they had the FOXP2 gene of the same kind as us,
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for vi ved, at de havde samme slags FOXP2-gen som os,
10:26
which was discovered here in Oxford.
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hvilket blev opdaget her i Oxford.
10:28
And so it looks like they probably had linguistic skills.
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Og det tyder på, at de havde sproglige færdigheder.
10:31
They were brilliant people. I'm not dissing the Neanderthals.
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De var formidable mennesker. Jeg disser ikke neandertalerne.
10:35
But there's no evidence
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Men der er intet tegn på
10:37
of a sexual division of labor.
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en kønsopdeling af arbejdet.
10:39
There's no evidence of gathering behavior by females.
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Der er intet tegn på samleradfærd hos kvinderne.
10:42
It looks like the females were cooperative hunters with the men.
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Det ser ud som om, kvinderne samarbejdede med mændene om jagten.
10:46
And the other thing there's no evidence for
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Og den anden ting, der ikke er tegn på
10:48
is exchange between groups,
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er bytteri mellem grupper.
10:51
because the objects that you find in Neanderthal remains,
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For tingene man finder blandt neandertalernes efterladenskaber,
10:54
the tools they made,
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redskaberne de lavede,
10:56
are always made from local materials.
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er altid lavet af lokale materialer.
10:58
For example, in the Caucasus
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For eksempel i Kaukasus
11:00
there's a site where you find local Neanderthal tools.
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der er et område, hvor man finder lokale neandertalredskaber.
11:03
They're always made from local chert.
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De er altid fremstillet af lokal flint.
11:05
In the same valley there are modern human remains
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I den samme dal findes også efterladenskaber fra moderne mennesker
11:07
from about the same date, 30,000 years ago,
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fra ca. samme tid; 30.000 år siden.
11:09
and some of those are from local chert,
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Og nogle af disse er af lokal flint,
11:11
but more -- but many of them are made
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men ydermere er mange af dem lavet
11:13
from obsidian from a long way away.
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af obsidian fra langt væk.
11:15
And when human beings began
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Og da mennesker begyndte
11:17
moving objects around like this,
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at flytte ting på den måde,
11:19
it was evidence that they were exchanging between groups.
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var det tegn på, at de handlede grupperne imellem.
11:22
Trade is 10 times as old as farming.
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Handel er ti gange ældre end landbrug.
11:25
People forget that. People think of trade as a modern thing.
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Det glemmer folk. Folk tænker på handel som en moderne ting.
11:28
Exchange between groups has been going on
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Bytteri mellem grupper har foregået
11:30
for a hundred thousand years.
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i 100.000 år.
11:33
And the earliest evidence for it crops up
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Og de tidligste beviser på det dukker op
11:35
somewhere between 80 and 120,000 years ago in Africa,
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et sted mellem 80.000 og 120.000 år siden i Afrika,
11:38
when you see obsidian and jasper and other things
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når man ser obsidian og jaspis og andre ting,
11:41
moving long distances in Ethiopia.
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der er flyttet over store afstande i Etiopien.
11:44
You also see seashells --
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Man finder også konkylier,
11:46
as discovered by a team here in Oxford --
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som et hold her fra Oxford opdagede,
11:48
moving 125 miles inland
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der er transporteret 200km ind i landet
11:50
from the Mediterranean in Algeria.
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fra Middelhavet til Algeriet.
11:53
And that's evidence that people
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Og det er bevis på, at mennesker
11:55
have started exchanging between groups.
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var begyndt at bytte grupperne imellem.
11:57
And that will have led to specialization.
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Og det må have leddet til specialisering.
11:59
How do you know that long-distance movement
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Hvordan ved man, at langdistancetransport
12:01
means trade rather than migration?
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betyder handel fremfor migration?
12:04
Well, you look at modern hunter gatherers like aboriginals,
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Ja, man ser på moderne jægersamlere som aboriginere,
12:06
who quarried for stone axes at a place called Mount Isa,
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der brød sten til økser et sted, der hedder Mt. Isa,
12:09
which was a quarry owned by the Kalkadoon tribe.
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hvilket er et stenbrud, der ejes af Kalkadoon-stammen.
12:12
They traded them with their neighbors
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De byttede økserne med naboerne
12:14
for things like stingray barbs,
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for ting som pilrokker.
12:16
and the consequence was that stone axes
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Og konsekvensen var, at stenøkser
12:18
ended up over a large part of Australia.
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endte op i store dele af Australien.
12:20
So long-distance movement of tools
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Så langdistancetransport af redskaber
12:22
is a sign of trade, not migration.
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er et tegn på handel, ikke migration.
12:25
What happens when you cut people off from exchange,
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Hvad sker der, når man afskærer folk fra udveksling,
12:28
from the ability to exchange and specialize?
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fra muligheden for at udveksle og specialisere sig?
12:31
And the answer is that
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Og svaret er, at
12:33
not only do you slow down technological progress,
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ikke alene sinker man deres teknologiske udvikling,
12:35
you can actually throw it into reverse.
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man kan faktisk få den til at gå baglæns.
12:38
An example is Tasmania.
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Et eksempel er Tasmanien.
12:40
When the sea level rose and Tasmania became an island 10,000 years ago,
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Da havniveauet steg og Tasmanien blev en ø for 10.000 år siden,
12:43
the people on it not only experienced
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oplevede de lokale ikke alene
12:45
slower progress than people on the mainland,
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en langsommere udvikling, end folk på hovedlandet gjorde,
12:48
they actually experienced regress.
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de oplevede faktisk tilbagegang.
12:50
They gave up the ability to make stone tools
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De mistede evnen til at lave benredskaber
12:52
and fishing equipment and clothing
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og fiskeudstyr og beklædning,
12:54
because the population of about 4,000 people
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fordi befolkningen på ca. 4.000 mennesker
12:57
was simply not large enough
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simpelthen ikke var stor nok
12:59
to maintain the specialized skills
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til at opretholde de specialiserede færdigheder,
13:01
necessary to keep the technology they had.
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der behøves for at bevare teknologierne, de havde.
13:04
It's as if the people in this room were plonked on a desert island.
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Det svarer til, at menneskene i dette lokale plumpede ned på en øde ø.
13:06
How many of the things in our pockets
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Hvor mange af tingene i vore lommer,
13:08
could we continue to make after 10,000 years?
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ville vi stadig kunne lave om 10.000 år?
13:12
It didn't happen in Tierra del Fuego --
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Det skete ikke i Tierra del Fuego -
13:14
similar island, similar people.
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lignende ø, lignende folk.
13:16
The reason: because Tierra del Fuego
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Grunden er, at Tierra del Fuego
13:18
is separated from South America by a much narrower straight,
328
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er adskilt fra Sydamerika af et meget smallere stræde.
13:21
and there was trading contact across that straight
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Og der var handelskontakter på tværs af strædet
13:23
throughout 10,000 years.
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gennem 10.000 år.
13:25
The Tasmanians were isolated.
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Tasmanierne var isolerede.
13:28
Go back to this image again
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Vend igen tilbage til dette billede
13:30
and ask yourself, not only who made it and for who,
333
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og spørg dig selv, ikke blot hvem der lavede den til hvem,
13:33
but who knew how to make it.
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men hvem vidste, hvordan man laver den.
13:36
In the case of the stone axe, the man who made it knew how to make it.
335
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I stenøksens tilfælde vidste manden, der lavede den, hvordan den laves.
13:39
But who knows how to make a computer mouse?
336
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Men hvem ved, hvordan man laver en computermus?
13:42
Nobody, literally nobody.
337
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Ingen, bogstavelig talt ingen!
13:45
There is nobody on the planet who knows how to make a computer mouse.
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Der er ingen på planeten, der ved, hvordan man laver en computermus.
13:48
I mean this quite seriously.
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Det mener jeg ret alvorligt.
13:50
The president of the computer mouse company doesn't know.
340
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Direktøren for computermusfirmaet ved det ikke.
13:52
He just knows how to run a company.
341
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Han ved bare, hvordan man leder et firma.
13:55
The person on the assembly line doesn't know
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Personen ved samlebåndet ved det ikke,
13:57
because he doesn't know how to drill an oil well
343
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for han ved ikke, hvordan man borer en oliebrønd
13:59
to get oil out to make plastic, and so on.
344
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og får olie op, så man kan lave plastik osv.
14:02
We all know little bits, but none of us knows the whole.
345
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Vi ved alle mindre dele, men ingen af os ved det hele.
14:05
I am of course quoting from a famous essay
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Jeg citerer selvfølgelig fra et berømt essay
14:07
by Leonard Read, the economist in the 1950s,
347
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af økonomen Leonard Reed fra 1950erne
14:10
called "I, Pencil"
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med titlen "Jeg, en Blyant",
14:12
in which he wrote about how a pencil came to be made,
349
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i hvilken han skriver om, hvordan en blyant blev fremstillet,
14:15
and how nobody knows even how to make a pencil,
350
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og om hvordan ingen ved, hvordan man fremstiller en blyant,
14:18
because the people who assemble it don't know how to mine graphite,
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fordi folkene, der samler den, ikke ved, hvordan man udvinder grafit.
14:21
and they don't know how to fell trees and that kind of thing.
352
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Og de ved ikke, hvordan man fælder træer og den slags ting.
14:24
And what we've done in human society,
353
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Og hvad vi har opnået i det menneskelige samfund,
14:26
through exchange and specialization,
354
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gennem udveksling og specialisering
14:28
is we've created
355
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2000
er, at vi har skabt
14:30
the ability to do things that we don't even understand.
356
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3000
evnen til at lave ting, vi ikke selv forstår.
14:33
It's not the same with language.
357
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Det er ikke det samme som sprog.
14:35
With language we have to transfer ideas
358
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Med sprog overfører vi idéer,
14:37
that we understand with each other.
359
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som vi forstår sammen.
14:40
But with technology,
360
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Men med teknologi
14:42
we can actually do things that are beyond our capabilities.
361
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kan vi faktisk lave ting, der ligger hinsides vore evner.
14:44
We've gone beyond the capacity of the human mind
362
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Vi er rejst hinsides den menneskelige hjernes evner
14:47
to an extraordinary degree.
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i en ekstraordinær grad.
14:49
And by the way,
364
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Og i øvrigt,
14:51
that's one of the reasons that I'm not interested
365
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det er en af grundene til, at jeg ikke er interesseret
14:54
in the debate about I.Q.,
366
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i I.Q.-debatten,
14:56
about whether some groups have higher I.Q.s than other groups.
367
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om nogle grupper har højere I.Q. end andre grupper,
14:59
It's completely irrelevant.
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det er fuldstændig irrelevant.
15:01
What's relevant to a society
369
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Det, der er relevant for samfundet,
15:04
is how well people are communicating their ideas,
370
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er, hvor godt folk kommunikerer sine idéer
15:07
and how well they're cooperating,
371
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og hvor godt, de samarbejder,
15:09
not how clever the individuals are.
372
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ikke hvor kloge individerne er.
15:11
So we've created something called the collective brain.
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Så vi har skabt noget, der hedder den kollektive hjerne.
15:13
We're just the nodes in the network.
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Vi er blot knobene i nettet.
15:15
We're the neurons in this brain.
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Vi er neuronerne i denne hjerne.
15:18
It's the interchange of ideas,
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Det er udvekslingen af idéer,
15:20
the meeting and mating of ideas between them,
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mødet mellem og parringen af idéer,
15:22
that is causing technological progress,
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der fremkalder den teknologiske udvikling,
15:25
incrementally, bit by bit.
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gradvist, lidt efter lidt.
15:27
However, bad things happen.
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Imidlertid sker der også dårlige ting.
15:29
And in the future, as we go forward,
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Og i fremtiden, som vi bevæger os fremefter,
15:32
we will, of course, experience terrible things.
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vil vi, selvfølgelig, opleve frygtelige ting.
15:35
There will be wars; there will be depressions;
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Der vil komme krige, der vil komme krisetider,
15:37
there will be natural disasters.
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der vil komme naturkatastrofer.
15:39
Awful things will happen in this century, I'm absolutely sure.
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Rædselsfulde ting vil ske i dette århundrede, det er jeg helt sikker på.
15:42
But I'm also sure that, because of the connections people are making,
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Men jeg er også sikker, grundet forbindelserne folk laver
15:45
and the ability of ideas
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og idéers evner
15:47
to meet and to mate
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til at mødes og parres
15:49
as never before,
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som aldrig før.
15:51
I'm also sure
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Jeg er også sikker på,
15:53
that technology will advance,
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at teknologi vil gøre fremskridt
15:55
and therefore living standards will advance.
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og at levestandarder derfor vil øges.
15:57
Because through the cloud,
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For gennem skyen,
15:59
through crowd sourcing,
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gennem udbud til mængderne,
16:01
through the bottom-up world that we've created,
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gennem denne Verden, der står på hovedet og som vi har skabt,
16:03
where not just the elites but everybody
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hvor ikke blot eliten, men alle
16:06
is able to have their ideas
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er i stand til at have sine idéer
16:08
and make them meet and mate,
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og få dem til at mødes og parres,
16:10
we are surely accelerating the rate of innovation.
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her accelererer vi med sikkerhed innovationshastigheden.
16:13
Thank you.
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Tak.
16:15
(Applause)
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(Bifald)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Matt Ridley - Rational optimistMatt Ridley argues that, through history, the engine of human progress and prosperity has been, and is, "ideas having sex with each other."
Why you should listen
British author Matt Ridley knows one thing: Through history, the engine of human progress and prosperity has been, and is, the mating of ideas. The sophistication of the modern world, says Ridley, lies not in individual intelligence or imagination; it is a collective enterprise. In his book The Rational Optimist, Ridley (whose previous works include Genome and Nature via Nurture) sweeps the entire arc of human history to powerfully argue that "prosperity comes from everybody working for everybody else."
It is our habit of trade, idea-sharing and specialization that has created the collective brain which set human living standards on a rising trend. This, he says, "holds out hope that the human race will prosper mightily in the years ahead -- because ideas are having sex with each other as never before."
Watch his 2010 TEDTalk, "When Ideas Have Sex."
Matt Ridley | Speaker | TED.com