TEDGlobal 2010
Matt Ridley: When ideas have sex
Matt Ridley: Kada se ideje poseksaju
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Na konferenciji TEDGlobal 2010, autor Matt Ridley pokazuje kako je, kroz povijest, motor ljudskog napretka sretanje i parenje ideja kako bi nastale nove ideje. Nije važno koliko su pametni pojedinci, kaže on; ono što je zaista bitno jest koliko je pametan kolektivni mozak.
Matt Ridley - Rational optimist
Matt Ridley argues that, through history, the engine of human progress and prosperity has been, and is, "ideas having sex with each other." Full bio
Matt Ridley argues that, through history, the engine of human progress and prosperity has been, and is, "ideas having sex with each other." Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
When I was a student here in Oxford in the 1970s,
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Kad sam bio student ovdje na Oxfordu sedamdesetih,
00:19
the future of the world was bleak.
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budućnost svijeta bila je mračna.
00:22
The population explosion was unstoppable.
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Eksplozija populacije bila je nezaustavljiva.
00:24
Global famine was inevitable.
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Globalna glad bila je neizbježna.
00:26
A cancer epidemic caused by chemicals in the environment
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Epidemija raka uzrokovana kemikalijama u okolišu
00:29
was going to shorten our lives.
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skratila bi naše živote.
00:32
The acid rain was falling on the forests.
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Kisele kiše padale su na šume.
00:35
The desert was advancing by a mile or two a year.
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Pustinje su se širile milju ili dvije godišnje.
00:37
The oil was running out,
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Ponestajalo je nafte.
00:39
and a nuclear winter would finish us off.
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A nuklearna zima bi nas skončala.
00:42
None of those things happened,
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Ništa od toga nije se dogodilo.
00:44
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
00:46
and astonishingly, if you look at what actually happened in my lifetime,
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I zapanjujuće, ako pogledate što se zapravo dogodilo za vrijeme mog života,
00:49
the average per-capita income
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prosječni dohodak po glavi stanovnika
00:52
of the average person on the planet,
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prosječne osobe na planeti,
00:54
in real terms, adjusted for inflation,
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u realnim uvjetima, prilagođen inflacijom
00:56
has tripled.
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se utrostručio.
00:58
Lifespan is up by 30 percent in my lifetime.
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Životni vijek se povećao za 30% tijekom mog života.
01:01
Child mortality is down by two-thirds.
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Stopa smrtnosti djece je pala za dvije trećine.
01:04
Per-capita food production
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Proizvodnja hrane po glavi stanovnika
01:06
is up by a third.
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se povećala za trećinu.
01:08
And all this at a time when the population has doubled.
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I sve to u vrijeme kada se populacija udvostručila.
01:11
How did we achieve that, whether you think it's a good thing or not?
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Kako smo to ostvarili -- nebitno mislite li da je to dobra ili loša stvar --
01:13
How did we achieve that?
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Kako smo to ostvarili?
01:15
How did we become
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Kako smo postali
01:17
the only species
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jedina vrsta
01:19
that becomes more prosperous
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koja postajući brojnija,
01:21
as it becomes more populous?
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postaje naprednija?
01:23
The size of the blob in this graph represents the size of the population,
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Veličina mjehura u ovom grafu predstavlja veličinu populacije.
01:26
and the level of the graph
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Dok razina grafa
01:28
represents GDP per capita.
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predstavlja BDP po stanovniku.
01:30
I think to answer that question
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Da bismo odgovorili na to pitanje, mislim
01:32
you need to understand
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da morate razumjeti
01:34
how human beings bring together their brains
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kako ljudska bića spajaju svoje mozgove
01:37
and enable their ideas to combine and recombine,
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i omogućavaju idejama da se kombiniraju i rekombiniraju.
01:40
to meet and, indeed, to mate.
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da se susreću i, zaista, pare.
01:43
In other words, you need to understand
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Drugim riječima, potrebno je da razumijete
01:45
how ideas have sex.
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kako se ideje seksaju.
01:48
I want you to imagine
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Želim da zamislite
01:50
how we got from making objects like this
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kako smo dospjeli od izrade ovakvih predmeta
01:53
to making objects like this.
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do izrade predmeta kao što je ovaj.
01:56
These are both real objects.
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Oba predmeta su stvarni predmeti
01:58
One is an Acheulean hand axe from half a million years ago
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Jedna je Acheuleanska ručna sjekira stara pola milijuna godina
02:00
of the kind made by Homo erectus.
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izrađena od strane Homo erectusa.
02:03
The other is obviously a computer mouse.
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Druga je očigledno računalni miš.
02:05
They're both exactly the same size and shape to an uncanny degree.
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Oni su točno iste veličine i oblika do zapanjujuće razine.
02:08
I've tried to work out which is bigger,
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Pokušao sam skužiti koji je veći,
02:11
and it's almost impossible.
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skoro pa je nemoguće.
02:13
And that's because they're both designed to fit the human hand.
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To je stoga što su oba dizajnirana da stanu u ljudsku šaku.
02:15
They're both technologies. In the end, their similarity is not that interesting.
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Oba su tehnologije. Na kraju, njihova sličnost nije toliko zanimljiva.
02:18
It just tells you they were both designed to fit the human hand.
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To vam samo govori da su oba dizajnirana da stanu u ljudsku šaku.
02:20
The differences are what interest me,
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Razlike su ono što me zanima.
02:22
because the one on the left was made to a pretty unvarying design
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Zato što ovaj na lijevoj strani oko milijun godina
02:25
for about a million years --
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nije mjenjao izgled -
02:27
from one-and-a-half million years ago to half a million years ago.
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od prije milijun i pol godina do prije pola milijuna godina.
02:30
Homo erectus made the same tool
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Homo erectus je izrađivao isti alat
02:33
for 30,000 generations.
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kroz 30,000 generacija.
02:35
Of course there were a few changes,
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Naravno, dogodile su se neke promjene,
02:37
but tools changed slower than skeletons in those days.
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no alati su se mjenjali sporije od kostura tih dana.
02:40
There was no progress, no innovation.
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Nije bilo napretka ni inovacije.
02:42
It's an extraordinary phenomenon, but it's true.
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To je nevjerojatan fenomen, ali istinit.
02:44
Whereas the object on the right is obsolete after five years.
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Dok su predmeti s desne strane zastarjeli nakon pet godina.
02:47
And there's another difference too,
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Postoji i druga razlika također,
02:49
which is the object on the left is made from one substance.
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predmet s lijeve strane je izrađen od jedne tvari.
02:51
The object on the right is made from
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Predmet zdesna je izrađen
02:53
a confection of different substances,
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od kombinacije različitih tvari,
02:55
from silicon and metal and plastic and so on.
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od silicija i metala do plastike itd.
02:58
And more than that, it's a confection of different ideas,
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I više od toga, to je skup različitih ideja,
03:01
the idea of plastic, the idea of a laser,
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ideja plastike, ideja lasera,
03:03
the idea of transistors.
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ideja tranzistora.
03:05
They've all been combined together in this technology.
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Sve su one povezane u ovoj tehnologiji.
03:08
And it's this combination,
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I to je ova kombinacija,
03:10
this cumulative technology, that intrigues me,
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ova kumulativna tehnologija, koje me intrigira.
03:13
because I think it's the secret to understanding
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Jer mislim da je u tome tajna razumijevanja
03:16
what's happening in the world.
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onoga što se događa u svijetu.
03:18
My body's an accumulation of ideas too:
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Moje tijelo je akumulacija ideja također,
03:21
the idea of skin cells, the idea of brain cells, the idea of liver cells.
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ideja stanica kože, ideja moždanih stanica, ideja stanica jetre.
03:24
They've come together.
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One su se spojile.
03:26
How does evolution do cumulative, combinatorial things?
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Kako evolucija izvodi kumulativne, kombinirane stvari?
03:29
Well, it uses sexual reproduction.
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Pa, koristi seksualnu reprodukciju.
03:32
In an asexual species, if you get two different mutations in different creatures,
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Kod aseksualnih vrsta, ako dobijete dvije različite mutacije na različitim stvorenjima,
03:35
a green one and a red one,
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zelenu i crvenu,
03:37
then one has to be better than the other.
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onda jedna mora biti bolja od druge.
03:39
One goes extinct for the other to survive.
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Jedna izumre kako bi druga preživjela.
03:41
But if you have a sexual species,
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No ukoliko imate seksualnu vrstu,
03:43
then it's possible for an individual
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onda je moguće da pojedinac
03:45
to inherit both mutations
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nasljedi obje mutacije
03:47
from different lineages.
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od različitih strana.
03:49
So what sex does is it enables the individual
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Dakle, što seks čini je da omogućava pojedincu
03:52
to draw upon
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da iskoristi
03:54
the genetic innovations of the whole species.
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genetske inovacije cijele vrste.
03:57
It's not confined to its own lineage.
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Nije ograničen na svoju lozu.
03:59
What's the process that's having the same effect
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Koji proces ima isti učinak
04:01
in cultural evolution
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u kulturnoj evoluciji
04:03
as sex is having in biological evolution?
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kao što seks ima u biološkoj evoluciji?
04:06
And I think the answer is exchange,
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Smatram da je odgovor razmjena,
04:08
the habit of exchanging one thing for another.
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navika razmjene jedne stvari za drugu.
04:11
It's a unique human feature.
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To je jedinstvena ljudska odlika.
04:13
No other animal does it.
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Ni jedna druga životinja ju nema.
04:15
You can teach them in the laboratory to do a little bit of exchange --
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U laboratoriju ih možete naučiti da pomalo razmjenjuju.
04:17
and indeed there's reciprocity in other animals --
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I zaista postoji reciprocitet kod drugih životinja.
04:19
But the exchange of one object for another never happens.
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Ali razmjena jednog predmeta za drugi nikada ne postoji.
04:22
As Adam Smith said, "No man ever saw a dog
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Kao što je Adam Smith rekao, "Još nitko nije vidio
04:24
make a fair exchange of a bone with another dog."
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psa kako pravedno razmjenjuje kost sa drugim psom."
04:27
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
04:30
You can have culture without exchange.
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Možete imati kulturu bez razmjene.
04:32
You can have, as it were, asexual culture.
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Također možete imati i aseksualnu kulturu.
04:34
Chimpanzees, killer whales, these kinds of creatures, they have culture.
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Čimpanze, kitovi ubojice, takva stvorenja imaju kulturu.
04:37
They teach each other traditions
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Jedni druge uče tradicijama
04:39
which are handed down from parent to offspring.
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koje se prenose sa roditelja na potomke.
04:41
In this case, chimpanzees teaching each other
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U ovom slučaju, čimpanze uče jedni druge
04:43
how to crack nuts with rocks.
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kako razbijati orahe kamenjem.
04:45
But the difference is
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Ali razlika je u tome
04:47
that these cultures never expand, never grow,
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što se ove kulture nikad ne šire, ne rastu,
04:49
never accumulate, never become combinatorial,
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ne akumuliraju, nikada ne postanu proizvodne.
04:51
and the reason is because
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A razlog tome je što
04:53
there is no sex, as it were,
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nema seksa, na neki način,
04:55
there is no exchange of ideas.
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nema razmjene ideja.
04:57
Chimpanzee troops have different cultures in different troops.
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Porodice čimpanzi imaju različite kulture u različitim porodicama.
05:00
There's no exchange of ideas between them.
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Među njima nema razmjene ideja.
05:03
And why does exchange raise living standards?
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A zašto razmjena podiže životni standard?
05:05
Well, the answer came from David Ricardo in 1817.
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Pa, odgovor je dao David Ricardo, 1817. godine.
05:08
And here is a Stone Age version of his story,
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Postoji verzija ove priče iz kamenog doba,
05:10
although he told it in terms of trade between countries.
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makar se njegova odnosi na međudržavnu razmjenu.
05:13
Adam takes four hours to make a spear and three hours to make an axe.
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Adamu je potrebno 4 sata da napravi koplje, a 3 da napravi sjekiru.
05:16
Oz takes one hour to make a spear and two hours to make an axe.
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Ozu je potreban jedan sat da napravi koplje i dva sata za sjekiru.
05:19
So Oz is better at both spears and axes than Adam.
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Znači Oz je u obje stvari bolji od Adama.
05:22
He doesn't need Adam.
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Adam mu nije potreban.
05:24
He can make his own spears and axes.
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Može sam napraviti svoja koplja i sjekire.
05:26
Well no, because if you think about it,
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Ustvari ne. Jer ako razmislite,
05:28
if Oz makes two spears and Adam make two axes,
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ako Oz napravi dva koplja, a Adam dvije sjekire,
05:30
and then they trade,
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i onda se mijenjaju,
05:32
then they will each have saved an hour of work.
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svaki će uštedjeti sat vremena posla.
05:35
And the more they do this, the more true it's going to be,
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Što više to rade, ovo će biti točnije.
05:38
because the more they do this, the better Adam is going to get at making axes
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Jer što više to rade, Adam će biti bolji u izradi sjekira,
05:41
and the better Oz is going to get at making spears.
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a Oz će napredovati u izradi koplja.
05:43
So the gains from trade are only going to grow.
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Znači korist od razmjene će samo rasti.
05:45
And this is one of the beauties of exchange,
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I to je jedna od ljepota razmjene,
05:47
is it actually creates the momentum
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jer ona zapravo stvara priliku
05:49
for more specialization,
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za još više specijalizacije,
05:51
which creates the momentum for more exchange and so on.
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koja stvara priliku za još više razmjene i tako dalje.
05:54
Adam and Oz both saved an hour of time.
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I Adam i Oz uštede po sat vremena.
05:56
That is prosperity, the saving of time
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To je napredak, ušteda vremena
05:58
in satisfying your needs.
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u zadovoljavanju potreba.
06:01
Ask yourself how long you would have to work
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Zapitajte se koliko dugo biste morali raditi
06:03
to provide for yourself
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da biste sebi omogućili
06:06
an hour of reading light this evening to read a book by.
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sat vremena svjetla za čitanje knjige večeras.
06:09
If you had to start from scratch, let's say you go out into the countryside.
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Kad bi morali početi od nule, recimo morate otići u prirodu.
06:12
You find a sheep. You kill it. You get the fat out of it.
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Naći ovcu. Ubiti je. Uzeti njenu mast.
06:14
You render it down. You make a candle, etc. etc.
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Rastopiti ju. Napraviti svijeću, itd.
06:17
How long is it going to take you? Quite a long time.
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Koliko će vam vremena trebati za to? Prilično.
06:19
How long do you actually have to work
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Koliko zaista morate raditi
06:21
to earn an hour of reading light
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da biste zaradili sat vremena svjetla za čitanje,
06:23
if you're on the average wage in Britain today?
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ako imate prosječnu britansku plaću danas?
06:25
And the answer is about half a second.
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Odgovor je oko pola sekunde.
06:28
Back in 1950,
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Pedesetih bi
06:30
you would have had to work for eight seconds on the average wage
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bilo potrebno raditi osam sekundi sa prosječnom plaćom
06:32
to acquire that much light.
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da biste dobili toliko svjetla.
06:34
And that's seven and a half seconds of prosperity that you've gained
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To je sedam i pol sekundi napretka koje ste dobili.
06:37
since 1950, as it were,
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Od 1950., recimo.
06:39
because that's seven and a half seconds in which you can do something else,
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Jer to je sedam i pol sekundi u toku kojih možete raditi nešto drugo.
06:42
or you can acquire another good or service.
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Ili možete nabaviti drugu stvar ili uslugu.
06:44
And back in 1880,
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A davne 1880.,
06:46
it would have been 15 minutes
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bilo je potrebno 15 minuta
06:48
to earn that amount of light on the average wage.
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da se zaradi tolika količina svjetla, sa prosječnom plaćom.
06:50
Back in 1800,
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U devetnaestom stoljeću
06:52
you'd have had to work six hours
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morali ste raditi šest sati
06:54
to earn a candle that could burn for an hour.
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da biste zaradili svijeću koja gori sat vremena.
06:57
In other words, the average person on the average wage
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Drugim riječima, prosječna osoba sa prosječnom plaćom
06:59
could not afford a candle in 1800.
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nije si mogla priuštiti svijeću 1800.
07:02
Go back to this image of the axe and the mouse,
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Vratite se na ovu sliku sjekire i miša,
07:05
and ask yourself: "Who made them and for who?"
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i zapitajte se: "Tko ih je napravio i za koga?"
07:08
The stone axe was made by someone for himself.
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Kamenu sjekiru je netko napravio za sebe.
07:10
It was self-sufficiency.
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To je bila nezavisnost.
07:12
We call that poverty these days.
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Ovih dana to zovemo siromaštvo.
07:14
But the object on the right
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Ali predmet s desne strane
07:16
was made for me by other people.
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su za mene napravili drugi ljudi.
07:19
How many other people?
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Koliko drugih ljudi?
07:21
Tens? Hundreds? Thousands?
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Desetine? Stotine? Tisuće?
07:23
You know, I think it's probably millions.
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Znate, mislim da su vjerojatno milijuni.
07:25
Because you've got to include the man who grew the coffee,
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Jer morate uračunati čovjeka koji je uzgojio kavu,
07:27
which was brewed for the man who was on the oil rig,
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koja je pripremljena za čovjeka na naftnoj bušotini,
07:30
who was drilling for oil, which was going to be made into the plastic, etc.
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koji je vadio naftu koja će se pretvoriti u plastiku, itd.
07:33
They were all working for me,
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Svi su radili za mene,
07:35
to make a mouse for me.
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kako bi meni napravili miša.
07:37
And that's the way society works.
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I to je način na koji funkcionira društvo.
07:40
That's what we've achieved as a species.
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To smo, kao vrsta, postigli.
07:44
In the old days, if you were rich,
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U stara vremena, ako ste bili bogati,
07:46
you literally had people working for you.
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doslovno ste imali ljude koji su radili za vas.
07:48
That's how you got to be rich; you employed them.
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Tako ste postajali bogati; zapošljavali ste ih.
07:50
Louis XIV had a lot of people working for him.
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Luj XIV je imao puno ljudi koji su radili za njega.
07:52
They made his silly outfits, like this,
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Pravili su smiješnu odjeću, kao ovu.
07:54
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
07:56
and they did his silly hairstyles, or whatever.
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I pravili su mu smiješne frizure, ili štogod.
07:59
He had 498 people
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Imao je 498 ljudi koji
08:01
to prepare his dinner every night.
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su mu spremali večeru svaku večer.
08:03
But a modern tourist going around the palace of Versailles
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Ali moderni turist koji hoda okolo po Versaillesu
08:05
and looking at Louis XIV's pictures,
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i gleda slike Luja XIV
08:08
he has 498 people doing his dinner tonight too.
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također ima 498 ljudi koji mu pripremaju večeru.
08:10
They're in bistros and cafes and restaurants
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Oni su u bistroima i kafićima i restoranima
08:12
and shops all over Paris,
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i prodavaonicama širom Pariza.
08:14
and they're all ready to serve you at an hour's notice with an excellent meal
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I svi su spremni da vas u roku od sat vremena usluže odličnim jelima
08:17
that's probably got higher quality
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koja su vjerojatno kvalitetnija
08:19
than Louis XIV even had.
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od bilo kojih Lujevih.
08:21
And that's what we've done, because we're all working for each other.
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I to smo postigli, jer svi radimo jedni za druge.
08:24
We're able to draw upon specialization and exchange
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U mogućnosti smo napredovati iz usavršavanja i razmjene
08:27
to raise each other's living standards.
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kako bismo jedni drugima podigli životni standard.
08:30
Now, you do get other animals working for each other too.
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Sad, imate i druge životinje koje rade jedne za druge.
08:33
Ants are a classic example; workers work for queens and queens work for workers.
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Mravi su klasičan primjer; radnici rade za maticu, matica radi za radnike.
08:36
But there's a big difference,
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Ali postoji velika razlika,
08:38
which is that it only happens within the colony.
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a to je da se to događa samo unutar kolonije.
08:40
There's no working for each other across the colonies.
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Među kolonijama oni ne rade jedni za druge.
08:42
And the reason for that is because there's a reproductive division of labor.
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Razlog tomu je reproduktivna podjela rada.
08:45
That is to say, they specialize with respect to reproduction.
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To znači da se specijaliziraju u odnosu na reprodukciju.
08:48
The queen does it all.
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Matica radi sve.
08:50
In our species, we don't like doing that.
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Mi u našoj vrsti to ne volimo.
08:52
It's the one thing we insist on doing for ourselves, is reproduction.
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Reprodukcija je jedna stvar koju volimo raditi za sebe.
08:55
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
08:58
Even in England, we don't leave reproduction to the Queen.
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Čak i u Engleskoj ne prepuštamo reprodukciju kraljici.
09:01
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
09:05
So when did this habit start?
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Znači, kad je počela ova navika?
09:07
And how long has it been going on? And what does it mean?
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I koliko dugo traje? I što znači?
09:09
Well, I think, probably, the oldest version of this
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Pa, ja mislim da je vjerojatno najstarija verzija ovoga
09:12
is probably the sexual division of labor.
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podjela posla na seksualnoj osnovi.
09:14
But I've got no evidence for that.
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Ali nemam dokaza za to.
09:16
It just looks like the first thing we did
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Samo izgleda kao da je prva stvar koju smo napravili
09:18
was work male for female and female for male.
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to da muškarci rade za žene i žene za muškarce.
09:21
In all hunter-gatherer societies today,
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U svim današnjim lovačko-sakupljačkim društvima
09:23
there's a foraging division of labor
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postoji hranidbena podjela rada
09:25
between, on the whole, hunting males and gathering females.
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između, generalno, muškaraca koji love i žena koje sakupljaju.
09:27
It isn't always quite that simple,
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Nije uvijek baš tako jednostavno.
09:29
but there's a distinction between
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Ali postoji razlika između
09:31
specialized roles for males and females.
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specijaliziranih uloga između muškaraca i žena.
09:33
And the beauty of this system
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A ljepota ovog sistema je
09:35
is that it benefits both sides.
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u tome što pogoduje objema stranama.
09:38
The woman knows
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Žena zna,
09:40
that, in the Hadzas' case here --
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u slučaju Hadze ovdje -
09:42
digging roots to share with men in exchange for meat --
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iskopavaju korijenje kako bi ih podijelile s muškarcima u zamjenu za meso -
09:44
she knows that all she has to do to get access to protein
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ona zna da, da bi došla do proteina
09:47
is to dig some extra roots and trade them for meat.
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mora samo iskopati malo više korijenja i razmjeniti ih za meso.
09:50
And she doesn't have to go on an exhausting hunt
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I ne mora ići u iscrpljujući lov
09:52
and try and kill a warthog.
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i pokuša ubiti divlju svinju.
09:54
And the man knows that he doesn't have to do any digging
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A muškarac zna da ne mora kopati
09:56
to get roots.
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kako bi došao do korijenja.
09:58
All he has to do is make sure that when he kills a warthog
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On se samo treba pobrinuti da je svinja koju ubije
10:00
it's big enough to share some.
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dovoljno velika za podjelu.
10:02
And so both sides raise each other's standards of living
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Tako obje strane podižu životni standard jedna drugoj,
10:05
through the sexual division of labor.
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putem seksualne podjele rada.
10:07
When did this happen? We don't know, but it's possible
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Kad se ovo dogodilo? Ne znamo, ali je moguće
10:10
that Neanderthals didn't do this.
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da neandertalci ovo nisu radili.
10:12
They were a highly cooperative species.
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Oni su kao vrsta puno surađivali.
10:14
They were a highly intelligent species.
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Bili su jako inteligentni.
10:16
Their brains on average, by the end, were bigger than yours and mine
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Njihovi mozgovi su u prosjeku bili veći od vašeg
10:18
in this room today.
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i mog danas.
10:20
They were imaginative. They buried their dead.
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Bili su maštoviti. Sahranjivali su mrtve.
10:22
They had language, probably,
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Vjerojatno su imali jezik,
10:24
because we know they had the FOXP2 gene of the same kind as us,
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jer znamo da su imali gen FOXP2 iste vrste kao i mi,
10:26
which was discovered here in Oxford.
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koji je otkriven ovdje u Oxfordu.
10:28
And so it looks like they probably had linguistic skills.
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I izgleda da su vjerojatno imali lingvističke vještine.
10:31
They were brilliant people. I'm not dissing the Neanderthals.
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Bili su briljantni ljudi. Ne podcjenjujem neandertalce.
10:35
But there's no evidence
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Ali ne postoje dokazi
10:37
of a sexual division of labor.
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seksualne podjele rada.
10:39
There's no evidence of gathering behavior by females.
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Ne postoje dokazi sakupljačkog ponašanja žena.
10:42
It looks like the females were cooperative hunters with the men.
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Izgleda da su žene bile kooperativni lovci sa muškarcima.
10:46
And the other thing there's no evidence for
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A druga stvar za koju ne postoje dokazi
10:48
is exchange between groups,
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je međugrupna razmjena.
10:51
because the objects that you find in Neanderthal remains,
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Zato jer predmeti koje nađete u ostatcima neandertalaca,
10:54
the tools they made,
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alati koje su pravili,
10:56
are always made from local materials.
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uvijek su izrađeni od lokalnih materijala.
10:58
For example, in the Caucasus
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Na primjer, na Kavkazu
11:00
there's a site where you find local Neanderthal tools.
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postoji mjesto gdje možete naći lokalne alate neandertalaca.
11:03
They're always made from local chert.
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Uvijek su izrađeni od lokalnog kamena.
11:05
In the same valley there are modern human remains
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U istoj dolini postoje ostatci modernog čovjeka
11:07
from about the same date, 30,000 years ago,
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iz otprilike istog perioda, prije 30,000 godina.
11:09
and some of those are from local chert,
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I neki od njih su od lokalnog kamena,
11:11
but more -- but many of them are made
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ali više -- mnogo njih je
11:13
from obsidian from a long way away.
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od opsidijana s jako udaljenog područja.
11:15
And when human beings began
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Kad su ljudska bića počela
11:17
moving objects around like this,
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premještati ovakve predmete uokolo,
11:19
it was evidence that they were exchanging between groups.
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to je bio dokaz da je postojala razmjena između grupa.
11:22
Trade is 10 times as old as farming.
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Razmjena je 10 puta starija od poljoprivrede.
11:25
People forget that. People think of trade as a modern thing.
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Ljudi to zaboravljaju. Ljudi misle da je trgovina suvremena stvar.
11:28
Exchange between groups has been going on
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Razmjena između grupa se odvija
11:30
for a hundred thousand years.
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stotinama tisuća godina.
11:33
And the earliest evidence for it crops up
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A rani dokaz za to se pojavljuje
11:35
somewhere between 80 and 120,000 years ago in Africa,
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negdje između 80 i 120,000 godina prije u Africi,
11:38
when you see obsidian and jasper and other things
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kada vidite da opsidijan, jaspis i druge stvari
11:41
moving long distances in Ethiopia.
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prelaze velike udaljenosti u Etiopiji.
11:44
You also see seashells --
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Također vidite morske školjke --
11:46
as discovered by a team here in Oxford --
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kao što je otkrio i jedan tim ovdje u Oxfordu --
11:48
moving 125 miles inland
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koje putuju 200 kilometara u unutrašnjost
11:50
from the Mediterranean in Algeria.
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sa Mediterana u Alžir.
11:53
And that's evidence that people
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I to je dokaz da su ljudi
11:55
have started exchanging between groups.
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započeli razmjenu između grupa.
11:57
And that will have led to specialization.
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I to će dovesti do specijalizacije.
11:59
How do you know that long-distance movement
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Kako znate da putovanje prema udaljenim destinacijama
12:01
means trade rather than migration?
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znači razmjenu prije nego migraciju?
12:04
Well, you look at modern hunter gatherers like aboriginals,
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Pa, pogledate moderne lovce sakupljače kao što su Aboridžini,
12:06
who quarried for stone axes at a place called Mount Isa,
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koji kopaju kamen za sjekire na planini Isa,
12:09
which was a quarry owned by the Kalkadoon tribe.
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a to je kamenolom koji drži pleme Kalkadoon.
12:12
They traded them with their neighbors
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Mjenjali su se sa susjedima
12:14
for things like stingray barbs,
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za predmete kao što su strijele od ražina repa.
12:16
and the consequence was that stone axes
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A posljedica toga je da su kamene sjekire
12:18
ended up over a large part of Australia.
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završile na većem dijelu Australije.
12:20
So long-distance movement of tools
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Dakle, kretanje alata udaljenim krajevima
12:22
is a sign of trade, not migration.
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je znak trgovine, a ne migracije
12:25
What happens when you cut people off from exchange,
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Što se događa kada ljudima uskratite razmjenu,
12:28
from the ability to exchange and specialize?
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od mogućnosti razmjene i specijalizacije?
12:31
And the answer is that
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Odgovor je,
12:33
not only do you slow down technological progress,
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ne samo da usporite tehnološki napredak,
12:35
you can actually throw it into reverse.
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nego ga možete i unazaditi.
12:38
An example is Tasmania.
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Primjer je Tasmanija.
12:40
When the sea level rose and Tasmania became an island 10,000 years ago,
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Kad se nivo mora podigao, i Tasmanija je postala otok, prije 10,000 godina
12:43
the people on it not only experienced
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ljudi na otoku, ne samo da su iskusili
12:45
slower progress than people on the mainland,
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sporiji napredak od ljudi na kopnu,
12:48
they actually experienced regress.
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nego su ustvari nazadovali.
12:50
They gave up the ability to make stone tools
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Izgubili su sposobnost izrade alata od kostiju
12:52
and fishing equipment and clothing
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te opreme za pecanje i odijevanje
12:54
because the population of about 4,000 people
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zato jer populacija od negdje 4,000 ljudi
12:57
was simply not large enough
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jednostavno nije bila dovoljno velika
12:59
to maintain the specialized skills
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da održi specijalizirane vještine
13:01
necessary to keep the technology they had.
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koje su potrebne da se zadrži tehnologija koju su imali.
13:04
It's as if the people in this room were plonked on a desert island.
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To je kao da se ljude iz ove prostorije stavi na pusti otok.
13:06
How many of the things in our pockets
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Koliko stvari iz naših džepova
13:08
could we continue to make after 10,000 years?
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bi mogli nastaviti proizvoditi nakon 10,000 godina?
13:12
It didn't happen in Tierra del Fuego --
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To se nije dogodilo u Tierri del Fuego --
13:14
similar island, similar people.
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sličan otok, slični ljudi.
13:16
The reason: because Tierra del Fuego
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Razlog je taj što je otok Tierra del Fuego
13:18
is separated from South America by a much narrower straight,
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odvojen od Južne Amerike mnogo užim prolazom.
13:21
and there was trading contact across that straight
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Postojala je trgovinska veza duž prolaza
13:23
throughout 10,000 years.
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tokom 10,000 godina.
13:25
The Tasmanians were isolated.
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Tasmanijanci su bili izolirani
13:28
Go back to this image again
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Vratite se ponovno na ovu sliku
13:30
and ask yourself, not only who made it and for who,
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i zapitajte se, ne samo tko ju je napravio i za koga,
13:33
but who knew how to make it.
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već tko je znao kako to napraviti.
13:36
In the case of the stone axe, the man who made it knew how to make it.
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U slučaju kamene sjekire, čovjek koji ju je napravio znao je kako.
13:39
But who knows how to make a computer mouse?
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Ali tko zna kako napraviti računalni miš?
13:42
Nobody, literally nobody.
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Nitko, doslovno nitko.
13:45
There is nobody on the planet who knows how to make a computer mouse.
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Ne postoji nitko na planeti tko zna napraviti računalni miš.
13:48
I mean this quite seriously.
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Ovo mislim potpuno ozbiljno.
13:50
The president of the computer mouse company doesn't know.
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Predsjednik tvrtke za izradu računalnih miševa ne zna.
13:52
He just knows how to run a company.
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On samo zna kako voditi tvrtku.
13:55
The person on the assembly line doesn't know
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Osoba na proizvodnoj liniji ne zna,
13:57
because he doesn't know how to drill an oil well
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jer ne zna kako iskopati naftu
13:59
to get oil out to make plastic, and so on.
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da bi se od nje napravila plastika, itd.
14:02
We all know little bits, but none of us knows the whole.
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Svi znamo po malo, ali nitko od nas ne zna sve.
14:05
I am of course quoting from a famous essay
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Naravno citiram čuveni esej
14:07
by Leonard Read, the economist in the 1950s,
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od Leonarda Reada, ekonomista iz pedesetih,
14:10
called "I, Pencil"
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naziva "Ja, olovka"
14:12
in which he wrote about how a pencil came to be made,
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u kojem je napisao kako nastaje olovka,
14:15
and how nobody knows even how to make a pencil,
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i kako nitko ne zna kako se pravi olovka,
14:18
because the people who assemble it don't know how to mine graphite,
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jer ljudi koji je sastavljaju ne znaju kako vaditi grafit.
14:21
and they don't know how to fell trees and that kind of thing.
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I ne znaju kako rušiti drveće i takve stvari.
14:24
And what we've done in human society,
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I ono što smo učinili kroz društvo,
14:26
through exchange and specialization,
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kroz razmjenu i specijalizaciju,
14:28
is we've created
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je da smo stvorili
14:30
the ability to do things that we don't even understand.
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sposobnost izrade stvari koje ni ne razumijemo.
14:33
It's not the same with language.
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Nije isto sa jezikom.
14:35
With language we have to transfer ideas
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U jeziku moramo prenositi ideje
14:37
that we understand with each other.
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koje razumijemo, jedni s drugima.
14:40
But with technology,
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No sa tehnologijom,
14:42
we can actually do things that are beyond our capabilities.
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možemo raditi stvari iznad naših sposobnosti.
14:44
We've gone beyond the capacity of the human mind
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Izašli smo izvan granica ljudskog uma,
14:47
to an extraordinary degree.
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do nevjerojatnog nivoa.
14:49
And by the way,
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I usput,
14:51
that's one of the reasons that I'm not interested
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to je jedan od razloga zašto me ne zanima
14:54
in the debate about I.Q.,
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debatiranje o I.Q.
14:56
about whether some groups have higher I.Q.s than other groups.
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o tome ima li neka grupa veći I.Q. od druge.
14:59
It's completely irrelevant.
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To je potpuno nebitno.
15:01
What's relevant to a society
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Ono što je bitno za društvo
15:04
is how well people are communicating their ideas,
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je koliko dobro ljudi prenose svoje ideje,
15:07
and how well they're cooperating,
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te koliko dobro surađuju,
15:09
not how clever the individuals are.
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a ne koliko su njihovi pojedinci pametni.
15:11
So we've created something called the collective brain.
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Dakle stvorili smo nešto zvano kolektivni mozak.
15:13
We're just the nodes in the network.
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Mi smo samo čvorovi u mreži.
15:15
We're the neurons in this brain.
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Mi smo neuroni u tom mozgu.
15:18
It's the interchange of ideas,
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Razmjena ideja,
15:20
the meeting and mating of ideas between them,
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susretanje i parenje ideja između njih samih,
15:22
that is causing technological progress,
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je to što dovodi do tehnološkog napretka,
15:25
incrementally, bit by bit.
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postepeno, malo po malo.
15:27
However, bad things happen.
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Međutim, loše stvari se događaju.
15:29
And in the future, as we go forward,
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Te u budućnosti, kako napredujemo
15:32
we will, of course, experience terrible things.
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iskusit ćemo, naravno užasne stvari.
15:35
There will be wars; there will be depressions;
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Bit će ratova, bit će depresija,
15:37
there will be natural disasters.
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biti će prirodnih katastrofa.
15:39
Awful things will happen in this century, I'm absolutely sure.
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Užasne stvari će se dogoditi u ovom stoljeću, uvjeren sam u to.
15:42
But I'm also sure that, because of the connections people are making,
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Ali također sam siguran da, zbog veza koje ljudi prave,
15:45
and the ability of ideas
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i sposobnosti i ideja
15:47
to meet and to mate
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da se susreću i pare
15:49
as never before,
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kao nikad prije.
15:51
I'm also sure
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Također sam siguran
15:53
that technology will advance,
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da će tehnologija napredovati,
15:55
and therefore living standards will advance.
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te tako životni standard rasti.
15:57
Because through the cloud,
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Jer kroz oblak,
15:59
through crowd sourcing,
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kroz grupno vođenje,
16:01
through the bottom-up world that we've created,
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kroz vertikalni svijet koji smo stvorili,
16:03
where not just the elites but everybody
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gdje ne samo elite, već svi mogu
16:06
is able to have their ideas
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imati svoje ideje
16:08
and make them meet and mate,
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te učiniti da se susreću i pare,
16:10
we are surely accelerating the rate of innovation.
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zasigurno ubrzavamo tempo inovacija.
16:13
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
16:15
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Matt Ridley - Rational optimistMatt Ridley argues that, through history, the engine of human progress and prosperity has been, and is, "ideas having sex with each other."
Why you should listen
British author Matt Ridley knows one thing: Through history, the engine of human progress and prosperity has been, and is, the mating of ideas. The sophistication of the modern world, says Ridley, lies not in individual intelligence or imagination; it is a collective enterprise. In his book The Rational Optimist, Ridley (whose previous works include Genome and Nature via Nurture) sweeps the entire arc of human history to powerfully argue that "prosperity comes from everybody working for everybody else."
It is our habit of trade, idea-sharing and specialization that has created the collective brain which set human living standards on a rising trend. This, he says, "holds out hope that the human race will prosper mightily in the years ahead -- because ideas are having sex with each other as never before."
Watch his 2010 TEDTalk, "When Ideas Have Sex."
Matt Ridley | Speaker | TED.com