TEDSummit
Jonathan Tepperman: The risky politics of progress
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Global problems such as terrorism, inequality and political dysfunction aren't easy to solve, but that doesn't mean we should stop trying. In fact, suggests journalist Jonathan Tepperman, we might even want to think riskier. He traveled the world to ask global leaders how they're tackling hard problems -- and unearthed surprisingly hopeful stories that he's distilled into three tools for problem-solving.
Jonathan Tepperman - Global affairs thinker
Jonathan Tepperman writes on the world's most pervasive and seemingly intractable challenges. Full bio
Jonathan Tepperman writes on the world's most pervasive and seemingly intractable challenges. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
The conventional wisdom
about our world today
about our world today
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is that this is a time
of terrible decline.
of terrible decline.
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And that's not surprising,
given the bad news all around us,
given the bad news all around us,
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from ISIS to inequality,
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political dysfunction, climate change,
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Brexit, and on and on.
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But here's the thing,
and this may sound a little weird.
and this may sound a little weird.
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I actually don't buy
this gloomy narrative,
this gloomy narrative,
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and I don't think you should either.
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Look, it's not that
I don't see the problems.
I don't see the problems.
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I read the same headlines that you do.
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What I dispute is the conclusion
that so many people draw from them,
that so many people draw from them,
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namely that we're all screwed
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because the problems are unsolvable
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and our governments are useless.
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Now, why do I say this?
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It's not like I'm particularly
optimistic by nature.
optimistic by nature.
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But something about the media's
constant doom-mongering
constant doom-mongering
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with its fixation on problems
and not on answers
and not on answers
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has always really bugged me.
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So a few years ago I decided,
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well, I'm a journalist,
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I should see if I can do any better
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by going around the world
and actually asking folks
and actually asking folks
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if and how they've tackled
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their big economic
and political challenges.
and political challenges.
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And what I found astonished me.
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It turns out that there are remarkable
signs of progress out there,
signs of progress out there,
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often in the most unexpected places,
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and they've convinced me
that our great global challenges
that our great global challenges
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may not be so unsolvable after all.
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Not only are there theoretical fixes;
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those fixes have been tried.
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They've worked.
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And they offer hope for the rest of us.
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I'm going to show you what I mean
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by telling you about
how three of the countries I visited --
how three of the countries I visited --
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Canada, Indonesia and Mexico --
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overcame three supposedly
impossible problems.
impossible problems.
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Their stories matter because they contain
tools the rest of us can use,
tools the rest of us can use,
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and not just for those
particular problems,
particular problems,
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but for many others, too.
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When most people think
about my homeland, Canada, today,
about my homeland, Canada, today,
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if they think about Canada at all,
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they think cold, they think boring,
they think polite.
they think polite.
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They think we say "sorry" too much
in our funny accents.
in our funny accents.
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And that's all true.
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(Laughter)
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Sorry.
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(Laughter)
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But Canada's also important
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because of its triumph over a problem
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currently tearing
many other countries apart:
many other countries apart:
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immigration.
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Consider, Canada today is among
the world's most welcoming nations,
the world's most welcoming nations,
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even compared to other
immigration-friendly countries.
immigration-friendly countries.
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Its per capita immigration rate
is four times higher than France's,
is four times higher than France's,
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and its percentage
of foreign-born residents
of foreign-born residents
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is double that of Sweden.
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Meanwhile, Canada admitted
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10 times more Syrian refugees
in the last year
in the last year
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than did the United States.
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(Applause)
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And now Canada is taking even more.
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And yet, if you ask Canadians
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what makes them proudest of their country,
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they rank "multiculturalism,"
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a dirty word in most places,
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second,
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ahead of hockey.
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Hockey.
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(Laughter)
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In other words,
at a time when other countries
at a time when other countries
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are now frantically building
new barriers to keep foreigners out,
new barriers to keep foreigners out,
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Canadians want even more of them in.
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Now, here's the really interesting part.
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Canada wasn't always like this.
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Until the mid-1960s, Canada followed
an explicitly racist immigration policy.
an explicitly racist immigration policy.
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They called it "White Canada,"
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and as you can see, they were not
just talking about the snow.
just talking about the snow.
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So how did that Canada
become today's Canada?
become today's Canada?
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Well, despite what my mom
in Ontario will tell you,
in Ontario will tell you,
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the answer had nothing to do with virtue.
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Canadians are not inherently
better than anyone else.
better than anyone else.
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The real explanation involves the man
who became Canada's leader in 1968,
who became Canada's leader in 1968,
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Pierre Trudeau, who is also
the father of the current prime minister.
the father of the current prime minister.
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(Applause)
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The thing to know about that first Trudeau
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is that he was very different
from Canada's previous leaders.
from Canada's previous leaders.
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He was a French speaker in a country
long-dominated by its English elite.
long-dominated by its English elite.
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He was an intellectual.
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He was even kind of groovy.
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I mean, seriously, the guy did yoga.
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He hung out with the Beatles.
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(Laughter)
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And like all hipsters,
he could be infuriating at times.
he could be infuriating at times.
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But he nevertheless pulled off
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one of the most progressive
transformations any country has ever seen.
transformations any country has ever seen.
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His formula, I've learned,
involved two parts.
involved two parts.
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First, Canada threw out
its old race-based immigration rules,
its old race-based immigration rules,
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and it replaced them
with new color-blind ones
with new color-blind ones
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that emphasized education,
experience and language skills instead.
experience and language skills instead.
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And what that did
was greatly increase the odds
was greatly increase the odds
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that newcomers would
contribute to the economy.
contribute to the economy.
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Then part two, Trudeau
created the world's first policy
created the world's first policy
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of official multiculturalism
to promote integration
to promote integration
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and the idea that diversity
was the key to Canada's identity.
was the key to Canada's identity.
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Now, in the years that followed,
Ottawa kept pushing this message,
Ottawa kept pushing this message,
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but at the same time, ordinary Canadians
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soon started to see the economic,
the material benefits of multiculturalism
the material benefits of multiculturalism
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all around them.
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And these two influences soon combined
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to create the passionately
open-minded Canada of today.
open-minded Canada of today.
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Let's now turn to another country
and an even tougher problem,
and an even tougher problem,
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Islamic extremism.
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In 1998, the people of Indonesia
took to the streets
took to the streets
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and overthrew
their longtime dictator, Suharto.
their longtime dictator, Suharto.
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It was an amazing moment,
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but it was also a scary one.
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With 250 million people,
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Indonesia is the largest
Muslim-majority country on Earth.
Muslim-majority country on Earth.
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It's also hot, huge and unruly,
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made up of 17,000 islands,
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where people speak
close to a thousand languages.
close to a thousand languages.
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Now, Suharto had been a dictator,
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and a nasty one.
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But he'd also been
a pretty effective tyrant,
a pretty effective tyrant,
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and he'd always been careful
to keep religion out of politics.
to keep religion out of politics.
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So experts feared that without
him keeping a lid on things,
him keeping a lid on things,
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the country would explode,
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or religious extremists would take over
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and turn Indonesia
into a tropical version of Iran.
into a tropical version of Iran.
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And that's just what seemed
to happen at first.
to happen at first.
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In the country's
first free elections, in 1999,
first free elections, in 1999,
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Islamist parties scored
36 percent of the vote,
36 percent of the vote,
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and the islands burned
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as riots and terror attacks
killed thousands.
killed thousands.
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Since then, however,
Indonesia has taken a surprising turn.
Indonesia has taken a surprising turn.
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While ordinary folks have grown
more pious on a personal level --
more pious on a personal level --
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I saw a lot more headscarves
on a recent visit
on a recent visit
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than I would have a decade ago --
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the country's politics
have moved in the opposite direction.
have moved in the opposite direction.
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Indonesia is now
a pretty decent democracy.
a pretty decent democracy.
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And yet, its Islamist parties
have steadily lost support,
have steadily lost support,
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from a high of about 38 percent in 2004
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down to 25 percent in 2014.
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As for terrorism, it's now extremely rare.
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And while a few Indonesians
have recently joined ISIS,
have recently joined ISIS,
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their number is tiny,
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far fewer in per capita terms
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than the number of Belgians.
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Try to think of one other
Muslim-majority country
Muslim-majority country
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that can say all those same things.
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In 2014, I went to Indonesia
to ask its current president,
to ask its current president,
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a soft-spoken technocrat
named Joko Widodo,
named Joko Widodo,
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"Why is Indonesia thriving when
so many other Muslim states are dying?"
so many other Muslim states are dying?"
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"Well, what we realized," he told me,
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"is that to deal with extremism,
we needed to deal with inequality first."
we needed to deal with inequality first."
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See, Indonesia's religious parties,
like similar parties elsewhere,
like similar parties elsewhere,
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had tended to focus on things like
reducing poverty and cutting corruption.
reducing poverty and cutting corruption.
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So that's what Joko
and his predecessors did too,
and his predecessors did too,
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thereby stealing the Islamists' thunder.
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They also cracked down hard on terrorism,
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but Indonesia's democrats
have learned a key lesson
have learned a key lesson
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from the dark years of dictatorship,
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namely that repression
only creates more extremism.
only creates more extremism.
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So they waged their war
with extraordinary delicacy.
with extraordinary delicacy.
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They used the police instead of the army.
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They only detained suspects
if they had enough evidence.
if they had enough evidence.
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They held public trials.
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They even sent
liberal imams into the jails
liberal imams into the jails
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to persuade the jihadists
that terror is un-Islamic.
that terror is un-Islamic.
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And all of this paid off
in spectacular fashion,
in spectacular fashion,
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creating the kind of country
that was unimaginable 20 years ago.
that was unimaginable 20 years ago.
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So at this point,
my optimism should, I hope,
my optimism should, I hope,
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be starting to make a bit more sense.
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Neither immigration nor Islamic extremism
are impossible to deal with.
are impossible to deal with.
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Join me now on one last trip,
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this time to Mexico.
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Now, of our three stories,
this one probably surprised me the most,
this one probably surprised me the most,
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since as you all know,
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the country is still struggling
with so many problems.
with so many problems.
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09:22
And yet, a few years ago,
Mexico did something
Mexico did something
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that many other countries
from France to India to the United States
from France to India to the United States
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can still only dream of.
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It shattered the political paralysis
that had gripped it for years.
that had gripped it for years.
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To understand how,
we need to rewind to the year 2000,
we need to rewind to the year 2000,
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when Mexico finally became a democracy.
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Rather than use their new freedoms
to fight for reform,
to fight for reform,
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Mexico's politicians used them
to fight one another.
to fight one another.
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Congress deadlocked,
and the country's problems --
and the country's problems --
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drugs, poverty, crime, corruption --
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spun out of control.
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Things got so bad that in 2008,
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the Pentagon warned
that Mexico risked collapse.
that Mexico risked collapse.
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Then in 2012, this guy
named Enrique Peña Nieto
named Enrique Peña Nieto
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somehow got himself elected president.
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Now, this Peña hardly inspired
much confidence at first.
much confidence at first.
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Sure, he was handsome,
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but he came from Mexico's
corrupt old ruling party, the PRI,
corrupt old ruling party, the PRI,
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and he was a notorious womanizer.
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In fact, he seemed
like such a pretty boy lightweight
like such a pretty boy lightweight
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that women called him "bombón," sweetie,
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at campaign rallies.
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And yet this same bombón
soon surprised everyone
soon surprised everyone
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by hammering out a truce
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between the country's
three warring political parties.
three warring political parties.
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And over the next 18 months,
they together passed
they together passed
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an incredibly comprehensive
set of reforms.
set of reforms.
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They busted open Mexico's
smothering monopolies.
smothering monopolies.
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They liberalized
its rusting energy sector.
its rusting energy sector.
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They restructured
its failing schools, and much more.
its failing schools, and much more.
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To appreciate the scale
of this accomplishment,
of this accomplishment,
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try to imagine the US Congress
passing immigration reform,
passing immigration reform,
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campaign finance reform
and banking reform.
and banking reform.
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Now, try to imagine Congress
doing it all at the same time.
doing it all at the same time.
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That's what Mexico did.
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Not long ago, I met with Peña
and asked how he managed it all.
and asked how he managed it all.
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The President flashed me
his famous twinkly smile --
his famous twinkly smile --
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(Laughter)
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and told me that the short answer
was "compromiso," compromise.
was "compromiso," compromise.
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Of course, I pushed him for details,
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and the long answer
that came out was essentially
that came out was essentially
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"compromise, compromise
and more compromise."
and more compromise."
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See, Peña knew that he needed
to build trust early,
to build trust early,
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so he started talking to the opposition
just days after his election.
just days after his election.
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To ward off pressure
from special interests,
from special interests,
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he kept their meetings small and secret,
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and many of the participants
later told me that it was this intimacy,
later told me that it was this intimacy,
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plus a lot of shared tequila,
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that helped build confidence.
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So did the fact that all decisions
had to be unanimous,
had to be unanimous,
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and that Peña even agreed to pass
some of the other party's priorities
some of the other party's priorities
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before his own.
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As Santiago Creel,
an opposition senator, put it to me,
an opposition senator, put it to me,
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"Look, I'm not saying that I'm special
or that anyone is special,
or that anyone is special,
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but that group, that was special."
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The proof?
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When Peña was sworn in, the pact held,
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and Mexico moved forward
for the first time in years.
for the first time in years.
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Bueno.
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So now we've seen
how these three countries
how these three countries
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overcame three of their great challenges.
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And that's very nice for them, right?
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But what good does it do the rest of us?
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Well, in the course of studying these
and a bunch of other success stories,
and a bunch of other success stories,
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like the way Rwanda pulled itself
back together after civil war
back together after civil war
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or Brazil has reduced inequality,
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or South Korea has kept its economy
growing faster and for longer
growing faster and for longer
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than any other country on Earth,
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12:55
I've noticed a few common threads.
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Now, before describing them,
I need to add a caveat.
I need to add a caveat.
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I realize, of course,
that all countries are unique.
that all countries are unique.
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So you can't simply
take what worked in one,
take what worked in one,
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port it to another
and expect it to work there too.
and expect it to work there too.
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Nor do specific solutions work forever.
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You've got to adapt them
as circumstances change.
as circumstances change.
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That said, by stripping
these stories to their essence,
these stories to their essence,
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you absolutely can distill
a few common tools for problem-solving
a few common tools for problem-solving
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that will work in other countries
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and in boardrooms
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and in all sorts of other contexts, too.
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Number one, embrace the extreme.
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In all the stories we've just looked at,
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salvation came at a moment
of existential peril.
of existential peril.
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And that was no coincidence.
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Take Canada: when Trudeau took office,
he faced two looming dangers.
he faced two looming dangers.
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First, though his vast,
underpopulated country
underpopulated country
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badly needed more bodies,
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its preferred source
for white workers, Europe,
for white workers, Europe,
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had just stopped exporting them
as it finally recovered from World War II.
as it finally recovered from World War II.
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The other problem was
that Canada's long cold war
that Canada's long cold war
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between its French
and its English communities
and its English communities
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had just become a hot one.
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Quebec was threatening to secede,
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and Canadians were actually
killing other Canadians over politics.
killing other Canadians over politics.
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Now, countries face
crises all the time. Right?
crises all the time. Right?
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That's nothing special.
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But Trudeau's genius
was to realize that Canada's crisis
was to realize that Canada's crisis
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had swept away all the hurdles
that usually block reform.
that usually block reform.
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Canada had to open up. It had no choice.
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And it had to rethink its identity.
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Again, it had no choice.
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And that gave Trudeau
a once-in-a-generation opportunity
a once-in-a-generation opportunity
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to break the old rules and write new ones.
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And like all our other heroes,
he was smart enough to seize it.
he was smart enough to seize it.
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Number two, there's power
in promiscuous thinking.
in promiscuous thinking.
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Another striking similarity
among good problem-solvers
among good problem-solvers
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is that they're all pragmatists.
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They'll steal the best answers
from wherever they find them,
from wherever they find them,
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and they don't let details
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like party or ideology
or sentimentality get in their way.
or sentimentality get in their way.
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As I mentioned earlier,
Indonesia's democrats were clever enough
Indonesia's democrats were clever enough
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to steal many of the Islamists'
best campaign promises for themselves.
best campaign promises for themselves.
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They even invited some of the radicals
into their governing coalition.
into their governing coalition.
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Now, that horrified
a lot of secular Indonesians.
a lot of secular Indonesians.
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But by forcing the radicals
to actually help govern,
to actually help govern,
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it quickly exposed the fact
that they weren't any good at the job,
that they weren't any good at the job,
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and it got them mixed up
in all of the grubby compromises
in all of the grubby compromises
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and petty humiliations
that are part of everyday politics.
that are part of everyday politics.
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And that hurt their image so badly
that they've never recovered.
that they've never recovered.
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Number three,
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please all of the people some of the time.
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I know I just mentioned how crises
can grant leaders extraordinary freedoms.
can grant leaders extraordinary freedoms.
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And that's true, but problem-solving
often requires more than just boldness.
often requires more than just boldness.
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It takes showing restraint, too,
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just when that's
the last thing you want to do.
the last thing you want to do.
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Take Trudeau: when he took office,
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he could easily have put
his core constituency,
his core constituency,
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that is Canada's French community, first.
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He could have pleased
some of the people all of the time.
some of the people all of the time.
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And Peña could have used his power
to keep attacking the opposition,
to keep attacking the opposition,
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as was traditional in Mexico.
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Yet he chose to embrace
his enemies instead,
his enemies instead,
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while forcing his own party to compromise.
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And Trudeau pushed everyone
to stop thinking in tribal terms
to stop thinking in tribal terms
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and to see multiculturalism,
not language and not skin color,
not language and not skin color,
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as what made them
quintessentially Canadian.
quintessentially Canadian.
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Nobody got everything they wanted,
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but everyone got just enough
that the bargains held.
that the bargains held.
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So at this point you may be thinking,
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"OK, Tepperman,
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if the fixes really are out there
like you keep insisting,
like you keep insisting,
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then why aren't more countries
already using them?"
already using them?"
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It's not like they require
special powers to pull off.
special powers to pull off.
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I mean, none of the leaders
we've just looked at were superheroes.
we've just looked at were superheroes.
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They didn't accomplish
anything on their own,
anything on their own,
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and they all had plenty of flaws.
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Take Indonesia's
first democratic president,
first democratic president,
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Abdurrahman Wahid.
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This man was so powerfully uncharismatic
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that he once fell asleep
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in the middle of his own speech.
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(Laughter)
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True story.
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So what this tells us
is that the real obstacle is not ability,
is that the real obstacle is not ability,
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and it's not circumstances.
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It's something much simpler.
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Making big changes
involves taking big risks,
involves taking big risks,
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and taking big risks is scary.
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Overcoming that fear requires guts,
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and as you all know,
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gutsy politicians are painfully rare.
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But that doesn't mean we voters
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can't demand courage
from our political leaders.
from our political leaders.
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I mean, that's why we put them
in office in the first place.
in office in the first place.
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And given the state of the world today,
there's really no other option.
there's really no other option.
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The answers are out there,
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but now it's up to us
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to elect more women and men
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brave enough to find them,
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to steal them
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and to make them work.
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Thank you.
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(Applause)
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Jonathan Tepperman - Global affairs thinkerJonathan Tepperman writes on the world's most pervasive and seemingly intractable challenges.
Why you should listen
Jonathan Tepperman is the managing editor of Foreign Affairs, the bimonthly journal published by the Council on Foreign Relations.
Tepperman started his career in international affairs as a speechwriter at the UN in Geneva, and he has written for publications including the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, The Atlantic and Newsweek. He has interviewed numerous world leaders including Syria's Bashar al-Assad, Japan’s Shinzo Abe, Brazil's Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Mexico's Enrique Peña Nieto, Indonesia's Joko Widodo and Rwanda’s Paul Kagame.
Tepperman's new book The Fix: How Nations Survive and Thrive in a World in Decline explores ten of the world's more pervasive and seemingly intractable challenges (such as economic stagnation, political gridlock, corruption and terrorism) and shows that, contrary to general consensus, each has a solution, one that has already been implemented somewhere in the world.
Jonathan Tepperman | Speaker | TED.com