We the Future
Graham Allison: Is war between China and the US inevitable?
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Taking lessons from a historical pattern called "Thucydides's Trap," political scientist Graham Allison shows why a rising China and a dominant United States could be headed towards a violent collision no one wants -- and how we can summon the common sense and courage to avoid it.
Graham Allison - Political scientist, professor
Graham Allison is a leading analyst of US national security and defense policy with a special interest in China, nuclear weapons and decision-making. Full bio
Graham Allison is a leading analyst of US national security and defense policy with a special interest in China, nuclear weapons and decision-making. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
So, let me thank you
for the opportunity to talk about
for the opportunity to talk about
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the biggest international story
of your professional lifetime,
of your professional lifetime,
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which is also the most important
international challenge
international challenge
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the world will face
for as far as the eye can see.
for as far as the eye can see.
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The story, of course,
is the rise of China.
is the rise of China.
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Never before have so many people
risen so far so fast,
risen so far so fast,
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on so many different dimensions.
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The challenge is the impact
of China's rise --
of China's rise --
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the discombobulation
this will cause the Unites States
this will cause the Unites States
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and the international order,
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of which the US has been
the principal architect and guardian.
the principal architect and guardian.
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The past 100 years have been what
historians now call an "American Century."
historians now call an "American Century."
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Americans have become
accustomed to their place
accustomed to their place
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at the top of every pecking order.
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So the very idea of another country
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that could be as big and strong
as the US -- or bigger --
as the US -- or bigger --
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strikes many Americans
as an assault on who they are.
as an assault on who they are.
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For perspective on what
we're now seeing in this rivalry,
we're now seeing in this rivalry,
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it's useful to locate it
on the larger map of history.
on the larger map of history.
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The past 500 years have seen 16 cases
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in which a rising power
threatened to displace a ruling power.
threatened to displace a ruling power.
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Twelve of those ended in war.
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01:39
So just in November, we'll all pause
to mark the 100th anniversary
to mark the 100th anniversary
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of the final day of a war
that became so encompassing,
that became so encompassing,
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that it required historians to create
an entirely new category: world war.
an entirely new category: world war.
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So, on the 11th hour of the 11th day
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of the 11th month in 1918,
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the guns of World War I fell silent,
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but 20 million individuals lay dead.
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02:12
I know that this
is a sophisticated audience,
is a sophisticated audience,
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so you know about the rise of China.
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I'm going to focus, therefore,
on the impact of China's rise,
on the impact of China's rise,
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on the US, on the international order
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and on the prospects for war and peace.
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02:28
But having taught at Harvard
over many years,
over many years,
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I've learned that from time to time,
it's useful to take a short pause,
it's useful to take a short pause,
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just to make sure we're all
on the same page.
on the same page.
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The way I do this is, I call a time-out,
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I give students a pop quiz --
ungraded, of course.
ungraded, of course.
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So, let's try this. Time-out, pop quiz.
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Question:
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forty years ago, 1978, China sets out
on its march to the market.
on its march to the market.
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At that point, what percentage
of China's one billion citizens
of China's one billion citizens
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were struggling to survive
on less than two dollars a day?
on less than two dollars a day?
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Take a guess -- 25 percent?
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Fifty?
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Seventy-five?
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Ninety.
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03:12
What do you think?
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03:14
Ninety.
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Nine out of every 10
on less than two dollars a day.
on less than two dollars a day.
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Twenty eighteen, 40 years later.
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What about the numbers?
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What's your bet?
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Take a look.
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Fewer than one in 100 today.
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03:36
And China's president has promised
that within the next three years,
that within the next three years,
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those last tens of millions
will have been raised up
will have been raised up
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above that threshold.
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So it's a miracle, actually,
in our lifetime.
in our lifetime.
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Hard to believe.
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But brute facts are even harder to ignore.
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A nation that didn't even appear
on any of the international league tables
on any of the international league tables
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25 years ago
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has soared,
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to rival -- and in some areas,
surpass -- the United States.
surpass -- the United States.
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Thus, the challenge
that will shape our world:
that will shape our world:
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a seemingly unstoppable rising China
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accelerating towards an apparently
immovable ruling US,
immovable ruling US,
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on course for what could be
the grandest collision in history.
the grandest collision in history.
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To help us get our minds
around this challenge,
around this challenge,
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I'm going to introduce you
to a great thinker,
to a great thinker,
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I'm going to present a big idea,
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and I'm going to pose a most
consequential question.
consequential question.
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The great thinker is Thucydides.
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Now, I know his name is a mouthful,
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and some people
have trouble pronouncing it.
have trouble pronouncing it.
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So, let's do it, one,
two, three, together:
two, three, together:
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Thucydides.
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One more time: Thucydides.
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So who was Thucydides?
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He was the father and founder of history.
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He wrote the first-ever history book.
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It's titled "The History
of the Peloponnesian War,"
of the Peloponnesian War,"
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about the war in Greece, 2500 years ago.
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So if nothing else today,
you can tweet your friends,
you can tweet your friends,
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"I met a great thinker.
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And I can even pronounce
his name: Thucydides."
his name: Thucydides."
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So, about this war
that destroyed classical Greece,
that destroyed classical Greece,
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Thucydides wrote famously:
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"It was the rise of Athens
and the fear that this instilled in Sparta
and the fear that this instilled in Sparta
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that made the war inevitable."
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So the rise of one
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and the reaction of the other
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create a toxic cocktail of pride,
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arrogance, paranoia,
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that drug them both to war.
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Which brings me to the big idea:
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Thucydides's Trap.
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"Thucydides's Trap" is a term
I coined several years ago,
I coined several years ago,
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to make vivid Thucydides's insight.
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Thucydides's Trap is the dangerous
dynamic that occurs
dynamic that occurs
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when a rising power threatens
to displace a ruling power,
to displace a ruling power,
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like Athens --
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or Germany 100 years ago,
or China today --
or China today --
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and their impact on Sparta,
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or Great Britain 100 years ago,
or the US today.
or the US today.
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As Henry Kissinger has said,
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once you get this idea, this concept
of Thucydides's Trap in your head,
of Thucydides's Trap in your head,
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it will provide a lens
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for helping you look through
the news and noise of the day
the news and noise of the day
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to understand what's actually going on.
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So, to the most consequential question
about our world today:
about our world today:
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Are we going to follow
in the footsteps of history?
in the footsteps of history?
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Or can we, through a combination
of imagination and common sense
of imagination and common sense
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and courage
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find a way to manage this rivalry
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without a war nobody wants,
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and everybody knows would be catastrophic?
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Give me five minutes to unpack this,
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and later this afternoon, when the next
news story pops up for you
news story pops up for you
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about China doing this,
or the US reacting like that,
or the US reacting like that,
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you will be able to have a better
understanding of what's going on
understanding of what's going on
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and even to explain it to your friends.
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So as we saw with this flipping
the pyramid of poverty,
the pyramid of poverty,
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China has actually soared.
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It's meteoric.
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Former Czech president, Vaclav Havel,
I think, put it best.
I think, put it best.
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He said, "All this has happened so fast,
we haven't yet had time to be astonished."
we haven't yet had time to be astonished."
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07:44
(Laughter)
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To remind myself
how astonished I should be,
how astonished I should be,
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I occasionally look out the window
in my office in Cambridge
in my office in Cambridge
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at this bridge, which goes
across the Charles River,
across the Charles River,
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between the Kennedy School
and Harvard Business School.
and Harvard Business School.
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In 2012, the State of Massachusetts said
they were going to renovate this bridge,
they were going to renovate this bridge,
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and it would take two years.
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In 2014, they said it wasn't finished.
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In 2015, they said
it would take one more year.
it would take one more year.
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In 2016, they said it's not finished,
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we're not going to tell you
when it's going to be finished.
when it's going to be finished.
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Finally, last year, it was finished --
three times over budget.
three times over budget.
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Now, compare this to a similar bridge
that I drove across last month in Beijing.
that I drove across last month in Beijing.
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It's called the Sanyuan Bridge.
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In 2015, the Chinese decided
they wanted to renovate that bridge.
they wanted to renovate that bridge.
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It actually has twice as many
lanes of traffic.
lanes of traffic.
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How long did it take for them
to complete the project?
to complete the project?
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Twenty fifteen, what do you bet?
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Take a guess -- OK, three --
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Take a look.
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(Laughter)
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The answer is 43 hours.
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(Audience: Wow!)
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(Laughter)
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Graham Allison: Now, of course,
that couldn't happen in New York.
that couldn't happen in New York.
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(Laughter)
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Behind this speed in execution
is a purpose-driven leader
is a purpose-driven leader
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and a government that works.
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The most ambitious
and most competent leader
and most competent leader
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on the international stage today
is Chinese President Xi Jinping.
is Chinese President Xi Jinping.
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And he's made no secret
about what he wants.
about what he wants.
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As he said when he became
president six years ago,
president six years ago,
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his goal is to make China great again --
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(Laughter)
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a banner he raised long before
Donald Trump picked up a version of this.
Donald Trump picked up a version of this.
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To that end, Xi Jinping has announced
specific targets for specific dates:
specific targets for specific dates:
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2025, 2035, 2049.
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By 2025, China means to be
the dominant power
the dominant power
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in the major market
in 10 leading technologies,
in 10 leading technologies,
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including driverless cars, robots,
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artificial intelligence,
quantum computing.
quantum computing.
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By 2035, China means to be
the innovation leader
the innovation leader
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across all the advanced technologies.
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And by 2049, which is
the 100th anniversary
the 100th anniversary
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of the founding of the People's Republic,
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China means to be
unambiguously number one,
unambiguously number one,
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including, [says] Xi Jinping,
an army that he calls "Fight and Win."
an army that he calls "Fight and Win."
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So these are audacious goals,
but as you can see,
but as you can see,
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China is already well on its way
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to these objectives.
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And we should remember
how fast our world is changing.
how fast our world is changing.
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Thirty years ago,
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the World Wide Web had not
yet even been invented.
yet even been invented.
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Who will feel the impact
of this rise of China most directly?
of this rise of China most directly?
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Obviously, the current number one.
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As China gets bigger
and stronger and richer,
and stronger and richer,
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technologically more advanced,
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it will inevitably bump up against
American positions and prerogatives.
American positions and prerogatives.
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Now, for red-blooded Americans --
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and especially for red-necked Americans
like me; I'm from North Carolina --
like me; I'm from North Carolina --
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there's something wrong with this picture.
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The USA means number one,
that's who we are.
that's who we are.
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But again, to repeat:
brute facts are hard to ignore.
brute facts are hard to ignore.
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Four years ago, Senator John McCain
asked me to testify about this
asked me to testify about this
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to his Senate Armed Services Committee.
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And I made for them a chart
that you can see,
that you can see,
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that said, compare the US and China
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to kids on opposite ends
of a seesaw on a playground,
of a seesaw on a playground,
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each represented by the size
of their economy.
of their economy.
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As late as 2004,
China was just half our size.
China was just half our size.
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By 2014, its GDP was equal to ours.
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And on the current trajectory,
by 2024, it will be half again larger.
by 2024, it will be half again larger.
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The consequences of this tectonic change
will be felt everywhere.
will be felt everywhere.
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For example, in the current
trade conflict,
trade conflict,
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China is already
the number one trading partner
the number one trading partner
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of all the major Asian countries.
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Which brings us back
to our Greek historian.
to our Greek historian.
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Harvard's "Thucydides's Trap Case File"
has reviewed the last 500 years of history
has reviewed the last 500 years of history
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and found 16 cases in which a rising power
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threatened to displace a ruling power.
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Twelve of these ended in war.
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And the tragedy of this
is that in very few of these
is that in very few of these
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did either of the protagonists want a war;
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few of these wars were initiated
by either the rising power
by either the rising power
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or the ruling power.
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So how does this work?
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What happens is,
a third party's provocation
a third party's provocation
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forces one or the other to react,
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and that sets in motion a spiral,
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which drags the two somewhere
they don't want to go.
they don't want to go.
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If that seems crazy, it is.
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But it's life.
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Remember World War I.
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The provocation in that case
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was the assassination
of a second-level figure,
of a second-level figure,
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Archduke Franz Ferdinand,
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which then led
the Austro-Hungarian emperor
the Austro-Hungarian emperor
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to issue an ultimatum to Serbia,
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they dragged in the various allies,
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within two months,
all of Europe was at war.
all of Europe was at war.
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So imagine if Thucydides were watching
planet Earth today.
planet Earth today.
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What would he say?
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Could he find a more appropriate
leading man for the ruling power
leading man for the ruling power
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than Donald J Trump?
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(Laughter)
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Or a more apt lead for the rising
power than Xi Jinping?
power than Xi Jinping?
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And he would scratch his head
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and certainly say he couldn't think
of more colorful provocateur
of more colorful provocateur
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than North Korea's Kim Jong-un.
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Each seems determined
to play his assigned part
to play his assigned part
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and is right on script.
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So finally, we conclude again
with the most consequential question,
with the most consequential question,
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the question that will have
the gravest consequences
the gravest consequences
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for the rest of our lives:
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Are Americans and Chinese going to let
the forces of history drive us to a war
the forces of history drive us to a war
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that would be catastrophic for both?
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Or can we summon
the imagination and courage
the imagination and courage
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to find a way to survive together,
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15:00
to share the leadership
in the 21st century,
in the 21st century,
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or, as Xi Jinping [said], to create
a new form of great power relations?
a new form of great power relations?
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That's the issue I've been
pursuing passionately
pursuing passionately
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for the last two years.
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I've had the opportunity to talk
and, indeed, to listen
and, indeed, to listen
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to leaders of all
the relevant governments --
the relevant governments --
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Beijing, Washington, Seoul, Tokyo --
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and to thought leaders across the spectrum
of both the arts and business.
of both the arts and business.
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I wish I had more to report.
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The good news is that leaders
are increasingly aware
are increasingly aware
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of this Thucydidean dynamic
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and the dangers that it poses.
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The bad news is that
nobody has a feasible plan
nobody has a feasible plan
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for escaping history as usual.
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So it's clear to me
that we need some ideas
that we need some ideas
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outside the box
of conventional state graph --
of conventional state graph --
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indeed, from another page
or another space --
or another space --
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which is what brings me to TED today
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and which brings me to a request.
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This audience includes many
of the most creative minds on the planet,
of the most creative minds on the planet,
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who get up in the morning and think
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not only about how to manage
the world we have,
the world we have,
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but how to create worlds that should be.
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So I'm hopeful that as this sinks in
and as you reflect on it,
and as you reflect on it,
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some of you are going to have
some bold ideas, actually some wild ideas,
some bold ideas, actually some wild ideas,
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that when we find, will make
a difference in this space.
a difference in this space.
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And just to remind you if you do,
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this won't be the first time.
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Let me remind you of what happened
right after World War II.
right after World War II.
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A remarkable group of Americans
and Europeans and others,
and Europeans and others,
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not just from government, but from
the world of culture and business,
the world of culture and business,
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engaged in a collective
surge of imagination.
surge of imagination.
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And what they imagined
and what they created
and what they created
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was a new international order,
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the order that's allowed you and me
to live our lives, all of our lives,
to live our lives, all of our lives,
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without great power war
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and with more prosperity
than was ever seen before on the planet.
than was ever seen before on the planet.
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So, a remarkable story.
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Interestingly, every pillar of this
project that produced these results,
project that produced these results,
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when first proposed,
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17:15
was rejected by the foreign
policy establishment
policy establishment
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as naive or unrealistic.
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My favorite is the Marshall Plan.
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17:24
After World War II,
Americans felt exhausted.
Americans felt exhausted.
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They had demobilized 10 million troops,
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17:29
they were focused on
an urgent domestic agenda.
an urgent domestic agenda.
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But as people began to appreciate
how devastated Europe was
how devastated Europe was
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and how aggressive Soviet communism was,
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Americans eventually decided
to tax themselves
to tax themselves
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a percent and a half of GDP
every year for four years
every year for four years
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17:47
and send that money to Europe
to help reconstruct these countries,
to help reconstruct these countries,
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including Germany and Italy,
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17:54
whose troops had just
been killing Americans.
been killing Americans.
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Amazing.
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This also created the United Nations.
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Amazing.
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The Universal Declaration of Human Rights.
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The World Bank.
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NATO.
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All of these elements of an order
for peace and prosperity.
for peace and prosperity.
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So, in a word, what we need
to do is do it again.
to do is do it again.
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And I think now we need a surge
of imagination, creativity,
of imagination, creativity,
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informed by history,
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for, as the philosopher
Santayana reminded us,
Santayana reminded us,
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in the end, only those
who refuse to study history
who refuse to study history
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are condemned to repeat it.
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Thank you.
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(Applause)
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Graham Allison - Political scientist, professorGraham Allison is a leading analyst of US national security and defense policy with a special interest in China, nuclear weapons and decision-making.
Why you should listen
Graham Allison is the Douglas Dillon Professor of Government at the Harvard Kennedy School and the best-selling author of Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap? Founding Dean of the Harvard Kennedy School, he has served as Assistant Secretary of Defense and advised the Secretaries of Defense under every president from Reagan to Obama.
Graham Allison | Speaker | TED.com