Ian Bremmer: How the US should use its superpower status
ایان برِمِر: آمریکا چطور باید از جایگاه ابرقدرتی خود استفاده کند
Ian Bremmer is the president and founder of Eurasia Group, a political risk research and consulting firm. Full bio
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you always think about technology,
معمولا فکر میکنید در مورد فناوریه،
becoming more innovative.
و خلاقیت داره بیشتر میشه،
about driverless cars these days,
خودروهای خودران حرف میزنند،
of a driverless car,
خودروی خودران خوشم میاد،
and the brake, just in case.
و پام روی ترمز، اگه چیزی شد.
but I am not ready for a driverless bus.
اما سوار اتوبوس خودران نمیشم.
for the last several generations
در چند نسل گذشته
the World Trade Organization
تجارت جهانی باشه
بانک جهانی،
our money, our standards.
هم پیمانهای ما، پول ما، معیارهای ما.
if you want to look at how the US looks,
حالا آمریکا چطوری به نظر میرسه،
it feels pretty comfortable.
خیلی راحته.
saw the China trip last week
«مسافرت چین» رو هفته پیش دیدین
of the world's leaders in China.
was actually spewing expletives
and everybody else.
about to get into a cage match, right?
برن توی رینگ بوکس، نه؟
and they talked about Syria.
و درباره سوریه صحبت کردند.
در بارهاش صحبت کنه.
کارهایی اونجا انجام بده.
are telling him what to do.
بهش بگن که چکار کنه.
are getting together?
are pulling their weight.
Turkish president Erdogan what to do,
ترکیه اردوغان میگه که چکار کنه،
what's going on over there?
اونجا دیگه چه خبره؟
it's not a G20,
این دیگه گروه ۲۰ نیست،
no single country or alliance
هیچ کشوری یا پیمانی به تنهایی
of global leadership.
that's history.
به تاریخ پیوسته.
and capital are moving across borders
سرمایه از مرزها خارج میشوند
with the rest of this talk.
در ادامه صحبتم بگم.
about the implications of that
Why are we here?
و چرا اینجاییم؟
on wars in Iraq and Afghanistan
عراق و افغانستان هزینه کردیم
of middle and working classes
و کارگر داریم
from promises of globalization,
براشون سودی نداشته،
or the Middle East the way we used to.
خاورمیانه به شکلی که عادت داشتیم نداریم.
in the United States.
در ایالات متحده تولید میکنیم.
to be the global sheriff for security
کلانتر امنیت جهانی باشند
the cheerleader of global values.
مشوق ارزشهای جهانی باشند.
alliance in the world
at any point since World War II,
پس از جنگ دوم جهانی است،
the Brexit conversations,
مذاکرات خروج انگلیس از اروپا،
between the French and the Russians,
میان فرانسه و روسیه،
or the Brits and the Chinese.
انگلیسیها و چینیها.
اما تنها در زمینههای تجاری،
standards, currency,
has had stability such as it is. Right?
باثبات بوده. درست؟
a willingness to provide
by the US and allies.
آمریکا و متحدینش وجود داشت.
a lot of cheap money out of the ground
و زیاد از زمین کار سادهای بود
the populations were relatively quiescent.
مردم نسبتا خاموش بودند.
and many didn't have the will
و خیلیها هم ارادهاش رو نداشتند
are increasingly not true,
and Iraq, Israel, Iran over time.
و ایران به تدریج بهتر میشوند.
it's not a good look.
این تصویر خوبی نیست.
he's hitting above his weight.
expanding NATO right up to their borders
در حال توسعه تا مرزهاشون هستند
put hundreds of billions of dollars
چینیها چند صد میلیارد دلار
they thought they had influence in.
رابطه دارند سرمایه گزاری کنند،
The Russians are picking up the crumbs.
و روسها دارند خوردهها رو جمع میکنند.
a very tense 10 years for Mr. Putin.
سختی برای آقای پوتین خواهد بود.
about to get a third term written in
who is consolidating enormous power,
که قدرت زیادی رو تحکیم کرده،
most important economies in Asia.
over the South China Sea.
just in the last couple of days,
درست همین چند روز پیش،
do not feel the need
and cross-border tensions.
economic stability and growth.
رشد اقتصادی بلند مدت تمرکز کنند.
in this environment.
in the Middle East
onto European shores.
the concerns of populism
نگرانی از پوپولیسم (عوامگرایی) را
will be seen to have gone too far.
کمی بیش از حد میرسه.
went right down to the Middle East,
و از پایین تا خاورمیانه ادامه پیدا کرده،
more flat and more Americanized,
those countries nearest Russia
این کشورهای نزدیک روسیه
economic capabilities,
and systems than core Europe.
نسبت به مرکز اروپا.
Europe will get smaller.
اروپا کوچکتر میشه.
and France and others
و فرانسه و مابقی
stable, wealthy, integrated.
با ثبات، پولدار و منسجم.
and Turkey and others,
to the United States for decades.
ضدیت زیادی با آمریکا داشتهاند.
when Maduro falls.
وقتی مادورو سقوط کنه.
after the impeachment
بعد از اعلام جرم
a new legitimate president elected there.
قانونی و منتخب جدید در آنجا داشته باشیم.
that is moving in another direction
of Mexican president Peña Nieto.
پنیا نیتو است.
a slip away from the United States
on that one, too.
در مورد این یکی هم، جداً مهمه.
it's going to be Africa's decade, finally.
آفریقا خواهد بود، نهایتاً.
it is absolutely an amazing time
قطعاً زمان شگفتانگیزی است
with a lot of urbanization,
و شهری شدن گسترده پیش میروند،
women really getting into the workforce,
زنان وارد فضاهای کاری میشوند،
and also Christianity,
و نیز مسیحی،
lots of forced migration.
مهاجرتهای اجباری.
an extreme segregation going on
and the losers across Africa.
باید هم سرخورده باشیم.
we should be upset.
because they say, "Washington's broken,
« واشنگتن داغون شده،
از رسانهها متنفریم.»
we hate the media."
مثل من هم این بدبختی رو قبول دارند.
are taking it on the chin.
chased by the bear,
you need not outrun the bear,
نباید از خرسه فرار کنید،
your fellow campers.
همچادریهاتون فرار کنین.
Let's go New York real estate.
بیاید بریم سراغ املاک نیویورک.
to American universities."
دانشگاههای آمریکایی».
and two big bodies of water.
و دو تا دریای بزرگ.
would love to have neighbors like that?
همچین همسایههایی داشته باشه؟
in the United States.
که ما اون رو اینجا در نیویورک میفهمیم.
in Europe than the US.
مشکل خیلی بزرگتریه.
in the Middle East
and we're complaining bitterly about it.
و به تلخی ازش شکایت میکنیم.
Because they can't swim here.
چون نمیتونن تا اینجا شنا کنند.
to have only 10,000 Syrian refugees.
داشتند تا فقط ۱۰٬۰۰۰ پناهنده سوری داشتند
the Germans, the Brits. Right?
آلمانیها، انگلیسیها. درسته؟
the global cop anymore,
پلیس جهانی باشیم،
the architect of global trade,
تجارت جهانی باشیم،
the cheerleader of global values,
ارزشهای جهانی باشیم،
the way we used to,
که عادت کرده بودیم رو انجام بدیم،
be so compelling
تا راضی کننده باشیم
are going to still say,
this is a good place to be.
اینجا هنوز هم جای خوبیه.
is not proving a good option
it's going to be like the '90s.
قراره مثل دهه ۹۰ بشیم.
that cheerleader on values.
the architect of global trade.
to bring us back to the '30s.
ما رو به دهه ۳۰ برگردونه.
You don't like it, lump it." Right?
دوست نداری، به سلامت.» درسته؟
a fundamental truth of the G-Zero,
یک حقیقت بنیادی است رو قبول ندارند،
the US is not in decline,
خواسته هاشون رو تحمیل کنند،
رهبری از راه الگو بودن هستیم؟
another crisis that forces us to respond.
تا ما رو مجبور به حرکت کنه.
crisis could do this.
میتونه این کار رو بکنه.
میتونه این کار رو بکنه.
the inequality, the challenges
نابرابری، چالشهایی
in the United States,
بزرگ و بزرگتر میشوند،
یا هرکدام از ما،
to compel them to change.
متقاعد به تغییر کنیم.
neither of those things,
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Ian Bremmer - Political theoristIan Bremmer is the president and founder of Eurasia Group, a political risk research and consulting firm.
Why you should listen
Dubbed a "rising guru" in the field of political risk by The Economist, Ian Bremmer teaches classes on the discipline as global research professor at New York University and is a foreign affairs columnist and editor at large for Time magazine. His latest book, Superpower: Three Choices for America’s Role in the World, was published in May 2015.
Bremmer is credited with bringing the craft of political risk to financial markets. He created Wall Street's first global political risk index (GPRI), and he established political risk as an academic discipline. His definition of emerging markets -- "those countries where politics matter at least as much as economics for market outcomes" -- has become an industry standard. "G-Zero," his term for a global power vacuum in which no country is willing and able to set the international agenda, is widely accepted by policymakers and thought leaders.
Bremmer has published nine books including the national bestsellers Every Nation for Itself: Winners and Losers in a G-Zero World and The End of the Free Market: Who Wins the War Between States and Corporations? He is a regular columnist for the Financial Times and has written hundreds of articles for many leading publications. He appears regularly on CNBC, Fox, Bloomberg, CNN, the BBC and other networks.
Bremmer earned a PhD in political science from Stanford University in 1994 and was the youngest-ever national fellow at the Hoover Institution. In 2007, Bremmer was named a Young Global Leader of the World Economic Forum, where he is the founding chairman of the Global Agenda Council on Geopolitical Risk. He is the Harold J. Newman Distinguished Fellow in Geopolitics at the Asia Society Policy Institute and serves on the President's Council of the Near East Foundation, the Leadership Council for Concordia and the Board of Trustees of Intelligence Squared.
Bremmer grew up in Boston and currently lives in New York and Washington.
Ian Bremmer | Speaker | TED.com