Ian Bremmer: How the US should use its superpower status
イアン・ブレマー: アメリカは超大国としての実績をどう利用すべきか
Ian Bremmer is the president and founder of Eurasia Group, a political risk research and consulting firm. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
you always think about technology,
becoming more innovative.
変化する世界を想像しますよね
about driverless cars these days,
話題でもちきりです
of a driverless car,
コンセプトは素晴らしい
and the brake, just in case.
操作できるようになっていて欲しいです
but I am not ready for a driverless bus.
まだ怖くて乗る気がしません
運転手が消えたら?
そんな風に変化しているからです
世界の責任者です
for the last several generations
the World Trade Organization
our money, our standards.
資金 基準に基づいていました
if you want to look at how the US looks,
アメリカが今どんな風に見えるかというと
it feels pretty comfortable.
なかなか落ち着きます
saw the China trip last week
先週の中国訪問の様子です
of the world's leaders in China.
中国での最も重要な会議に
was actually spewing expletives
実際に罵りの言葉を
and everybody else.
about to get into a cage match, right?
and they talked about Syria.
90分もの間 シリアについて話していました
are telling him what to do.
指図しているわけじゃあ無いので
are getting together?
are pulling their weight.
Turkish president Erdogan what to do,
何やら指図していますね
what's going on over there?
何してるんだ?」という感じ
it's not a G20,
それではG20ではありません
no single country or alliance
唯一の国または連合が
of global leadership.
that's history.
あれはもう過去のものです
and capital are moving across borders
with the rest of this talk.
about the implications of that
Why are we here?
こうなったのは何故?
on wars in Iraq and Afghanistan
無駄に2兆ドルを
of middle and working classes
労働者階級と中流階級は
from promises of globalization,
享受できたと感じていないため
or the Middle East the way we used to.
依存しなくて良くなりました
in the United States.
to be the global sheriff for security
the cheerleader of global values.
価値観を声高に提唱したくも無い
alliance in the world
at any point since World War II,
最も弱まっています
the Brexit conversations,
ブレグジット(Brexit)
between the French and the Russians,
or the Brits and the Chinese.
英国と中国の間のけん制関係もしかりです
主導権を握っています
standards, currency,
通貨を貫きたい
has had stability such as it is. Right?
拮抗した状況となっています
a willingness to provide
by the US and allies.
a lot of cheap money out of the ground
地面を掘れば
the populations were relatively quiescent.
人民はどちらかといえば柔順だったから
and many didn't have the will
その多くは 反乱を起こす意思すら
are increasingly not true,
and Iraq, Israel, Iran over time.
イラク、イスラエル、イランもそのうちに
it's not a good look.
[ロシア連邦大統領 プーチン]
he's hitting above his weight.
疑いありません
(観客に)そんな意味じゃありませんよ
expanding NATO right up to their borders
そうしないと言っておきながら拡大した―
put hundreds of billions of dollars
ロシア周囲の国に影響を及ぼすために
they thought they had influence in.
The Russians are picking up the crumbs.
ロシアにはその残りものしかありません
a very tense 10 years for Mr. Putin.
非常に厳しい10年になるでしょう
そうでしょう?
about to get a third term written in
who is consolidating enormous power,
most important economies in Asia.
over the South China Sea.
just in the last couple of days,
do not feel the need
過熱させたりする
and cross-border tensions.
economic stability and growth.
in this environment.
少し怯えているように見えます
in the Middle East
onto European shores.
the concerns of populism
ヨーロッパの国々が
will be seen to have gone too far.
行き過ぎだったと見なされるでしょう
went right down to the Middle East,
国境に接するに至り
more flat and more Americanized,
アメリカ化していたのなら
those countries nearest Russia
ロシアに隣接した国々や
economic capabilities,
それぞれの経済的規模や
and systems than core Europe.
Europe will get smaller.
ヨーロッパは縮小するでしょう
and France and others
フランスなどでは
stable, wealthy, integrated.
統一され 機能するでしょう
and Turkey and others,
ポピュリズムの影響が大きく
to the United States for decades.
when Maduro falls.
将来倒れる時にも
after the impeachment
ルセフ大統領が罷免され
a new legitimate president elected there.
就任する時にも見られるでしょう
that is moving in another direction
of Mexican president Peña Nieto.
不人気にそれが見られます
a slip away from the United States
アメリカから離れていくでしょう
アメリカから離れていくでしょう
on that one, too.
これにも大きく影響します
it's going to be Africa's decade, finally.
ついにアフリカの10年が来ると言っています
it is absolutely an amazing time
いくつかのアフリカの国々にとって
with a lot of urbanization,
都市化が行われ
women really getting into the workforce,
女性がどんどん社会に進出している
そんな国々には好機です
and also Christianity,
lots of forced migration.
強制移住が頻繁に起こります
地図から消えてしまいかねません
an extreme segregation going on
and the losers across Africa.
we should be upset.
国民は憤慨しています
because they say, "Washington's broken,
「ワシントンはもう機能していない
we hate the media."
メディアも嫌いだ」
are taking it on the chin.
攻撃を食らっているんですからね
chased by the bear,
you need not outrun the bear,
クマより早く走るんじゃなくて
your fellow campers.
早く走ればいいんですよ
Let's go New York real estate.
「ニューヨークの不動産を買おう」だ
to American universities."
and two big bodies of water.
そして大陸を挟む二つの大洋
would love to have neighbors like that?
どれだけ羨むか想像できますか?
in the United States.
in Europe than the US.
もっと大きな問題で
in the Middle East
ヨーロッパよりも深刻です
ヨーロッパよりも深刻です
and we're complaining bitterly about it.
それに苦々しく文句を垂れています
Because they can't swim here.
泳いで来れないんですよ
to have only 10,000 Syrian refugees.
受け入れるだけで済むのなら大喜びです
the Germans, the Brits. Right?
the global cop anymore,
the architect of global trade,
the cheerleader of global values,
the way we used to,
be so compelling
導く必要があります
are going to still say,
他の国々に
知らしめるのです
this is a good place to be.
それは良い立ち位置です
is not proving a good option
模範的行動で率いるには
it's going to be like the '90s.
国は90年代のようになると言います
that cheerleader on values.
価値観を先導していけるでしょう
the architect of global trade.
to bring us back to the '30s.
私たちを30年代に連れ戻そうとしています
You don't like it, lump it." Right?
気に入らない?知ったことか」
a fundamental truth of the G-Zero,
the US is not in decline,
世界情勢に影響を及ぼしたり
世界を導くための備えはできていますか?
どうしていけば良いでしょうか
another crisis that forces us to respond.
起こるか―
crisis could do this.
the inequality, the challenges
不平等や諸問題の数々が
in the United States,
必要があります
to compel them to change.
neither of those things,
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Ian Bremmer - Political theoristIan Bremmer is the president and founder of Eurasia Group, a political risk research and consulting firm.
Why you should listen
Dubbed a "rising guru" in the field of political risk by The Economist, Ian Bremmer teaches classes on the discipline as global research professor at New York University and is a foreign affairs columnist and editor at large for Time magazine. His latest book, Superpower: Three Choices for America’s Role in the World, was published in May 2015.
Bremmer is credited with bringing the craft of political risk to financial markets. He created Wall Street's first global political risk index (GPRI), and he established political risk as an academic discipline. His definition of emerging markets -- "those countries where politics matter at least as much as economics for market outcomes" -- has become an industry standard. "G-Zero," his term for a global power vacuum in which no country is willing and able to set the international agenda, is widely accepted by policymakers and thought leaders.
Bremmer has published nine books including the national bestsellers Every Nation for Itself: Winners and Losers in a G-Zero World and The End of the Free Market: Who Wins the War Between States and Corporations? He is a regular columnist for the Financial Times and has written hundreds of articles for many leading publications. He appears regularly on CNBC, Fox, Bloomberg, CNN, the BBC and other networks.
Bremmer earned a PhD in political science from Stanford University in 1994 and was the youngest-ever national fellow at the Hoover Institution. In 2007, Bremmer was named a Young Global Leader of the World Economic Forum, where he is the founding chairman of the Global Agenda Council on Geopolitical Risk. He is the Harold J. Newman Distinguished Fellow in Geopolitics at the Asia Society Policy Institute and serves on the President's Council of the Near East Foundation, the Leadership Council for Concordia and the Board of Trustees of Intelligence Squared.
Bremmer grew up in Boston and currently lives in New York and Washington.
Ian Bremmer | Speaker | TED.com