Ian Bremmer: How the US should use its superpower status
이안 브레머(Ian Bremmer): 미국은 초강대국의 지위를 어떻게 이용해야 하는가
Ian Bremmer is the president and founder of Eurasia Group, a political risk research and consulting firm. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
you always think about technology,
혁신되는 걸 생각들 하시죠.
becoming more innovative.
자율주행에 대해 얘기하는데
about driverless cars these days,
구상은 맘에 들지만
of a driverless car,
and the brake, just in case.
브레이크 조작은 직접 하고 싶어요.
but I am not ready for a driverless bus.
어떻게 생각하는진 모르지만
적응을 못 했거든요.
가까워지기 때문입니다.
우리가 넘버 원이잖요.
소임이 있는 나라고요.
for the last several generations
the World Trade Organization
our money, our standards.
돈이고 표준이니까요.
세계에 영향을 주었죠.
if you want to look at how the US looks,
이걸 보시면 미국의 위상이
it feels pretty comfortable.
saw the China trip last week
몇 분이나 보셨는지 모르지만
세계 정상들의 회담인데도
of the world's leaders in China.
was actually spewing expletives
활주로에서부터 욕을 할 정도로
비행기에서 내린 후엔
뒤섞여서 빠져나왔으니까요.
and everybody else.
오바마 대통령의 모습이죠.
- 안녕하시오, 노먼.
about to get into a cage match, right?
한 판 붙을 거 같아 보이죠?
and they talked about Syria.
설전을 벌이긴 했어요.
높이고 있는데 그곳에서도
찾아볼 수 없는 자리였고
are telling him what to do.
놀라울 따름이었죠.
무대에 함께 있을 땐 어떨까요?
are getting together?
are pulling their weight.
Turkish president Erdogan what to do,
what's going on over there?
it's not a G20,
리더십이 사라진 G-제로가 문제죠.
no single country or alliance
세계 질서 속에선
of global leadership.
도전받을 수 있으니까요.
that's history.
이미 옛날얘기가 됐죠.
and capital are moving across borders
with the rest of this talk.
about the implications of that
전반적으로 짚어 보죠.
이 자리에 있는 우리 모두는
Why are we here?
우리는 왜 여기 있을까요?
이라크와 아프가니스탄의
on wars in Iraq and Afghanistan
2조 달러나 썼기 때문이죠.
of middle and working classes
혜택을 받지 못했다고 여기는
from promises of globalization,
or the Middle East the way we used to.
중동이 필요하지도 않고
in the United States.
to be the global sheriff for security
the cheerleader of global values.
독려하는 것조차도 원치 않거든요.
alliance in the world
at any point since World War II,
the Brexit conversations,
브렉시트 담론까지
between the French and the Russians,
갑론을박 중이고
or the Brits and the Chinese.
영국과 중국에서도 오가는 중이죠.
리더십을 더 발휘하기 원하는데
standards, currency,
더 발휘하고 싶어 하지만
우선권과 질서를 이루기 원합니다.
우린 이 자리에 있게 된 거죠.
중동부터 말씀드리죠.
전반적으로 이해되실 겁니다.
세 가지 이유가 있는데
has had stability such as it is. Right?
a willingness to provide
by the US and allies.
맡기려는 의지가 있고
a lot of cheap money out of the ground
비싸기 때문에 국외에서
어떤 흠이 있더라도
the populations were relatively quiescent.
and many didn't have the will
굳이 저항할 의지도 없어서죠.
G-제로 세계에선
are increasingly not true,
점점 사실과 달라지고
그 밖의 모든 것 때문에
and Iraq, Israel, Iran over time.
시간이 흐를수록 쿠르드, 이라크
it's not a good look.
he's hitting above his weight.
expanding NATO right up to their borders
나토까지도 그렇다면
put hundreds of billions of dollars
수억 달러를 투입할 때만 기다리면
they thought they had influence in.
그 부스러기를 주워 먹겠죠.
The Russians are picking up the crumbs.
10년간 엄청난 긴장감이 감도는
a very tense 10 years for Mr. Putin.
훨씬 더 좋아 보이거든요.
about to get a third term written in
3선 연임을 앞둔
who is consolidating enormous power,
제일 강력한 지도자로서
most important economies in Asia.
경제적으로 가장 중요하지만
over the South China Sea.
just in the last couple of days,
또 다른 핵무기 실험을
do not feel the need
애국심을 고양해야 하는
국경 지역에서 긴장이 고조되는
and cross-border tensions.
성장에 더 주력하기 원하고
economic stability and growth.
in this environment.
in the Middle East
onto European shores.
유럽의 해안가에서 하고 있어서죠.
the concerns of populism
G-제로 세계에선
will be seen to have gone too far.
확장됐음을 알 수 있죠.
went right down to the Middle East,
more flat and more Americanized,
세계가 진정으로
그 문제는 덜 할 테지만
those countries nearest Russia
러시아와 중동에
economic capabilities,
and systems than core Europe.
나라들과 달라서
Europe will get smaller.
and France and others
독일과 프랑스는 여전히
stable, wealthy, integrated.
부유하고 통합을 이룰 것 같지만
and Turkey and others,
그 외의 나라들은
남아메리카의 경제도
수십 년간 미국에
to the United States for decades.
쿠바의 시장 개방 또한 그렇죠.
when Maduro falls.
베네수엘라도 그럴 것이며
after the impeachment
새 대통령이 선출된 때부터
a new legitimate president elected there.
볼 수 있을 겁니다.
that is moving in another direction
of Mexican president Peña Nieto.
그와 반대 노선을 취할 것이며
a slip away from the United States
이탈하는 상황을 볼 수도 있는데
불난 데 기름 붓는 꼴이 됐죠.
on that one, too.
it's going to be Africa's decade, finally.
10년이 될 거라고 합니다.
it is absolutely an amazing time
굉장한 시간을 맞긴 하지만
with a lot of urbanization,
도시화가 빨리 진척되고
women really getting into the workforce,
실제로 노동 현장에 뛰어들도록
대부분 나라가
and also Christianity,
lots of forced migration.
강제 이주 문제들 때문이고
나라들이기도 하죠.
an extreme segregation going on
승자와 패자 사이에서
and the losers across Africa.
실제로 볼 수 있습니다.
분노를 주체 못 하는 상황에서
현재 미국의 우린 화를 내야 하죠.
we should be upset.
because they say, "Washington's broken,
끝장났으며 정부 기관은
혐오스럽다고 합니다.
we hate the media."
are taking it on the chin.
chased by the bear,
you need not outrun the bear,
곰을 앞지를 필요가 없고
your fellow campers.
동지에게만 집중하자는 거죠.
부동산도 사고 우리 애들은
Let's go New York real estate.
to American universities."
두 개의 강줄기와도 같죠.
and two big bodies of water.
would love to have neighbors like that?
얼마나 반기는지 아시나요?
in the United States.
in Europe than the US.
in the Middle East
유럽보다는 중동이 더 심하죠.
시리아 난민을 받아 들여놓고도
and we're complaining bitterly about it.
오지도 않는데 그렇죠.
Because they can't swim here.
to have only 10,000 Syrian refugees.
받아도 만족할 겁니다.
the Germans, the Brits. Right?
영국도 그렇지 않을까요?
미국의 현실은 바로 이렇습니다.
the global cop anymore,
the architect of global trade,
the cheerleader of global values,
the way we used to,
be so compelling
are going to still say,
살기 좋은 곳이라면서
this is a good place to be.
is not proving a good option
보여야 하는 면에서
증거이기도 합니다.
it's going to be like the '90s.
that cheerleader on values.
독려할 수 있으며
the architect of global trade.
세계의 경찰이 될 수 있다고 했고
to bring us back to the '30s.
You don't like it, lump it." Right?
싫어도 그냥 받아들이라는 식이었죠.
본질적인 진실도 인정 안 하고
a fundamental truth of the G-Zero,
the US is not in decline,
우리 의지를 강요하는 것이
미국의 영향력이 크긴 해도
강요할 순 없거든요.
세계를 이끌 준비가 됐나요?
무엇을 해야 할까요?
another crisis that forces us to respond.
할 수도 있죠.
crisis could do this.
the inequality, the challenges
큰 도전을 받는 일이 될 거고
in the United States,
변화가 있어야만 해결되는
우리의 목소리를 내야 합니다.
to compel them to change.
주장해야만 합니다.
neither of those things,
여러분은 4년 후에도
다시 하게 될 테니까요.
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Ian Bremmer - Political theoristIan Bremmer is the president and founder of Eurasia Group, a political risk research and consulting firm.
Why you should listen
Dubbed a "rising guru" in the field of political risk by The Economist, Ian Bremmer teaches classes on the discipline as global research professor at New York University and is a foreign affairs columnist and editor at large for Time magazine. His latest book, Superpower: Three Choices for America’s Role in the World, was published in May 2015.
Bremmer is credited with bringing the craft of political risk to financial markets. He created Wall Street's first global political risk index (GPRI), and he established political risk as an academic discipline. His definition of emerging markets -- "those countries where politics matter at least as much as economics for market outcomes" -- has become an industry standard. "G-Zero," his term for a global power vacuum in which no country is willing and able to set the international agenda, is widely accepted by policymakers and thought leaders.
Bremmer has published nine books including the national bestsellers Every Nation for Itself: Winners and Losers in a G-Zero World and The End of the Free Market: Who Wins the War Between States and Corporations? He is a regular columnist for the Financial Times and has written hundreds of articles for many leading publications. He appears regularly on CNBC, Fox, Bloomberg, CNN, the BBC and other networks.
Bremmer earned a PhD in political science from Stanford University in 1994 and was the youngest-ever national fellow at the Hoover Institution. In 2007, Bremmer was named a Young Global Leader of the World Economic Forum, where he is the founding chairman of the Global Agenda Council on Geopolitical Risk. He is the Harold J. Newman Distinguished Fellow in Geopolitics at the Asia Society Policy Institute and serves on the President's Council of the Near East Foundation, the Leadership Council for Concordia and the Board of Trustees of Intelligence Squared.
Bremmer grew up in Boston and currently lives in New York and Washington.
Ian Bremmer | Speaker | TED.com