TEDSalon London 2010
Martin Jacques: Understanding the rise of China
Martin Jacques: Shvaćanje uspona Kine
Filmed:
Readability: 4
4,064,065 views
Govoreći na TED Salonu u Londonu, ekonomist Martin Jacques pita: Kako da mi na Zapadu shvatimo Kinu i njezin fenomenalni uspon? Autor knjige "Kad Kina zavlada svijetom", on istražuje zašto je Zapad često zbunjen rastućom snagom kineskog gospodarstva i nudi tri građevna elementa kao pomoć razumijevanju onoga što Kina jest i što će postati.
Martin Jacques - Writer, columnist
Martin Jacques is the author of "When China Rules the World," and a columnist for the Guardian and New Statesman. He was a co-founder of the think tank Demos. Full bio
Martin Jacques is the author of "When China Rules the World," and a columnist for the Guardian and New Statesman. He was a co-founder of the think tank Demos. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
The world is changing
0
0
2000
Svijet se mijenja
00:17
with really remarkable speed.
1
2000
3000
zaista izvanrednom brzinom.
00:20
If you look at the chart at the top here,
2
5000
2000
Ako pogledate na gornji dio grafikona,
00:22
you'll see that in 2025,
3
7000
2000
vidjet ćete da za 2025. godinu,
00:24
these Goldman Sachs projections
4
9000
2000
prognoze Goldman Sachsa
00:26
suggest that the Chinese economy
5
11000
2000
predviđaju da će kinesko gospodarstvo
00:28
will be almost the same size as the American economy.
6
13000
3000
gotovo dostići veličinu američkog gospodarstva.
00:31
And if you look at the chart
7
16000
3000
A ako pogledate grafikon
00:34
for 2050,
8
19000
2000
za 2050. godinu,
00:36
it's projected that the Chinese economy
9
21000
3000
projekcija je da će kinesko gospodarstvo
00:39
will be twice the size of the American economy,
10
24000
3000
biti dvostruko veće od američkog gospodarstva,
00:42
and the Indian economy will be almost the same size
11
27000
2000
a indijsko će biti gotovo iste veličine
00:44
as the American economy.
12
29000
3000
kao američko.
00:47
And we should bear in mind here
13
32000
2000
Moramo ovdje voditi računa o tome
00:49
that these projections were drawn up
14
34000
2000
da su ove prognoze nastale
00:51
before the Western financial crisis.
15
36000
3000
prije zapadne financijske krize.
00:54
A couple of weeks ago,
16
39000
2000
Prije nekoliko tjedana,
00:56
I was looking at the latest projection
17
41000
2000
pogledao sam posljednju prognozu
00:58
by BNP Paribas
18
43000
2000
koju je pripremio BNP Paribas
01:00
for when China
19
45000
3000
o tome kada će Kina
01:03
will have a larger economy
20
48000
2000
imati veće gospodarstvo
01:05
than the United States.
21
50000
2000
od gospodarstva Sjedinjenih Država.
01:07
Goldman Sachs projected 2027.
22
52000
4000
Goldman Sachs je predvidio da će to biti 2027.
01:11
The post-crisis projection
23
56000
3000
Prognoza nakon krize
01:14
is 2020.
24
59000
3000
kaže da će to biti 2020.
01:17
That's just a decade away.
25
62000
2000
To je samo desetljeće od danas.
01:19
China is going to change the world
26
64000
4000
Kina će promijeniti svijet
01:23
in two fundamental respects.
27
68000
3000
na dva fundamentalna načina.
01:26
First of all,
28
71000
2000
Prvo,
01:28
it's a huge developing country
29
73000
2000
ona je ogromna zemlja u razvoju
01:30
with a population of 1.3 billion people,
30
75000
4000
sa stanovništvom od 1,3 milijarde ljudi,
01:34
which has been growing for over 30 years
31
79000
3000
koje već preko 30 godina raste
01:37
at around 10 percent a year.
32
82000
2000
stopom od oko 10 posto na godinu.
01:39
And within a decade,
33
84000
2000
I u narednih 10 godina,
01:41
it will have the largest economy in the world.
34
86000
4000
imat će najveću ekonomiju na svijetu.
01:45
Never before in the modern era
35
90000
3000
Nikada ranije u modernoj eri
01:48
has the largest economy in the world
36
93000
3000
nije najveće gospodarstvo svijeta
01:51
been that of a developing country,
37
96000
2000
bilo gospodarstvo zemlje u razvoju,
01:53
rather than a developed country.
38
98000
3000
već je to bilo gospodarstvo neke razvijene zemlje.
01:57
Secondly,
39
102000
2000
Drugo,
01:59
for the first time in the modern era,
40
104000
2000
po prvi puta u moderno doba,
02:01
the dominant country in the world --
41
106000
2000
dominantna država svijeta --
02:03
which I think is what China will become --
42
108000
3000
što mislim da će Kina postati --
02:06
will be not from the West
43
111000
3000
neće biti sa Zapada
02:09
and from very, very different civilizational roots.
44
114000
4000
i potječe od jako, jako različitih civilizacijskih korijena.
02:13
Now, I know it's a widespread assumption in the West
45
118000
4000
Znam da je na Zapadu široko rasprostranjeno uvjerenje
02:17
that as countries modernize,
46
122000
3000
da modernizacijom zemalja,
02:20
they also westernize.
47
125000
2000
one postaju više zapadnjačke.
02:22
This is an illusion.
48
127000
2000
To je iluzija.
02:24
It's an assumption that modernity
49
129000
2000
Misli se da je modernitet
02:26
is a product simply of competition, markets and technology.
50
131000
3000
jednostavno proizvod konkurencije, tržišta i tehnologije.
02:29
It is not. It is also shaped equally
51
134000
2000
Nije; jednako tako oblikuju ga
02:31
by history and culture.
52
136000
2000
povijest i kultura.
02:33
China is not like the West,
53
138000
3000
Kina nije poput Zapada,
02:36
and it will not become like the West.
54
141000
3000
i neće ni postati poput Zapada.
02:39
It will remain in very fundamental respects
55
144000
2000
U nekim fundamentalnim vidovima
02:41
very different.
56
146000
2000
ostat će bitno drukčija.
02:43
Now the big question here is obviously,
57
148000
3000
Očito je veliko pitanje ovdje,
02:46
how do we make sense of China?
58
151000
2000
kako da shvatimo Kinu?
02:48
How do we try to understand what China is?
59
153000
2000
Kako da pokušamo razumjeti što je Kina?
02:50
And the problem we have in the West at the moment, by and large,
60
155000
3000
Problem koji trenutno imamo na Zapadu
02:53
is that the conventional approach
61
158000
2000
je onaj konvencionalnog pristupa
02:55
is that we understand it really in Western terms,
62
160000
2000
kojim Kinu razumijemo zapravo u zapadnjačkim okvirima,
02:57
using Western ideas.
63
162000
3000
primjenjujući zapadnjačke ideje.
03:00
We can't.
64
165000
2000
Ne možemo tako.
03:02
Now I want to offer you
65
167000
2000
Želim vam ponuditi
03:04
three building blocks
66
169000
2000
tri građevna elementa
03:06
for trying to understand what China is like,
67
171000
3000
kojima ćemo pokušati shvatiti kakva je Kina --
03:09
just as a beginning.
68
174000
2000
samo za početak.
03:11
The first is this:
69
176000
2000
Prvi je taj,
03:13
that China is not really a nation-state.
70
178000
3000
da Kina zapravo nije nacionalna država.
03:16
Okay, it's called itself a nation-state
71
181000
2000
OK, ona se naziva nacionalnom državom
03:18
for the last hundred years,
72
183000
2000
u posljednjih stotinu godina.
03:20
but everyone who knows anything about China
73
185000
2000
Ali svi koji nešto znaju o Kini
03:22
knows it's a lot older than this.
74
187000
2000
znaju da je puno starija od toga.
03:24
This was what China looked like with the victory of the Qin Dynasty
75
189000
3000
Ovako je Kina izgledala nakon pobjede Qin dinastije
03:27
in 221 B.C. at the end of the warring-state period --
76
192000
3000
221. pr.Kr. na kraju razdoblja zaraćene države --
03:30
the birth of modern China.
77
195000
2000
to je rođenje moderne Kine.
03:32
And you can see it against the boundaries of modern China.
78
197000
3000
I možete vidjeti usporedbu s granicama moderne Kine.
03:35
Or immediately afterward, the Han Dynasty,
79
200000
2000
Ili odmah nakon toga, dinastija Han,
03:37
still 2,000 years ago.
80
202000
2000
još uvijek prije 2.000 godina.
03:39
And you can see already it occupies
81
204000
2000
I vidite da već zauzima
03:41
most of what we now know as Eastern China,
82
206000
2000
većinu područja koje danas znamo kao istočnu Kinu,
03:43
which is where the vast majority of Chinese lived then
83
208000
3000
gdje je ogromna većina Kineza živjela u ono vrijeme,
03:46
and live now.
84
211000
2000
a živi i danas.
03:48
Now what is extraordinary about this
85
213000
2000
Ono što je ovdje izuzetno je to
03:50
is, what gives China its sense of being China,
86
215000
3000
da ono što Kini daje osjećaj da je Kina,
03:53
what gives the Chinese
87
218000
3000
što Kinezima daje osjećaj
03:56
the sense of what it is to be Chinese,
88
221000
3000
što to znači biti Kinez,
03:59
comes not from the last hundred years,
89
224000
2000
nije nastalo u posljednjih stotinu godina,
04:01
not from the nation-state period,
90
226000
2000
nije nastalo u razdoblju nacionalne države,
04:03
which is what happened in the West,
91
228000
3000
kako se to dogodilo na Zapadu,
04:06
but from the period, if you like,
92
231000
2000
već u razdoblju, ako hoćete,
04:08
of the civilization-state.
93
233000
2000
civilizacijske države.
04:10
I'm thinking here, for example,
94
235000
3000
Ovdje mislim, primjerice,
04:13
of customs like ancestral worship,
95
238000
3000
na običaje poput štovanja predaka,
04:16
of a very distinctive notion of the state,
96
241000
3000
na sasvim posebno poimanje države,
04:19
likewise, a very distinctive notion of the family,
97
244000
3000
također, na posebno poimanje obitelji,
04:22
social relationships like guanxi,
98
247000
2000
društvene odnose kao što je guanxi,
04:24
Confucian values and so on.
99
249000
2000
konfucijske vrijednosti, i tako dalje.
04:26
These are all things that come
100
251000
2000
Sve to dolazi
04:28
from the period of the civilization-state.
101
253000
3000
iz razdoblja civilizacijske države.
04:31
In other words, China, unlike the Western states and most countries in the world,
102
256000
3000
Drugim riječima, za razliku od zapadnih država i većine zemalja svijeta,
04:34
is shaped by its sense of civilization,
103
259000
3000
Kina je oblikovana svojim osjećajem civilizacije,
04:37
its existence as a civilization-state,
104
262000
2000
svojim postojanjem kao civilizacijska,
04:39
rather than as a nation-state.
105
264000
2000
umjesto kao nacionalna država.
04:41
And there's one other thing to add to this, and that is this:
106
266000
3000
Ovome treba dodati još nešto, a to je ovo:
04:44
Of course we know China's big, huge,
107
269000
2000
Naravno da znamo da je Kina velika, ogromna,
04:46
demographically and geographically,
108
271000
3000
demografski i zemljopisno,
04:49
with a population of 1.3 billion people.
109
274000
3000
sa stanovništvom od 1,3 milijarde ljudi.
04:52
What we often aren't really aware of
110
277000
3000
Ono čega često nismo doista svjesni
04:55
is the fact
111
280000
2000
je činjenica
04:57
that China is extremely diverse
112
282000
2000
da je Kina izuzetno različita
04:59
and very pluralistic,
113
284000
2000
i vrlo pluralistička,
05:01
and in many ways very decentralized.
114
286000
2000
i na mnoge načine vrlo decentralizirana.
05:03
You can't run a place on this scale simply from Beijing,
115
288000
3000
Ne možete voditi zemlju ove veličine jednostavno iz Pekinga,
05:06
even though we think this to be the case.
116
291000
3000
premda mi mislimo da je baš to slučaj.
05:09
It's never been the case.
117
294000
3000
To nikada nije bio slučaj.
05:13
So this is China, a civilization-state,
118
298000
2000
Dakle, ovo je Kina, civilizacijska država,
05:15
rather than a nation-state.
119
300000
2000
a ne nacionalna država.
05:17
And what does it mean?
120
302000
2000
Što to znači?
05:19
Well, I think it has all sorts of profound implications.
121
304000
2000
Mislim da ovo ima najrazličitije duboke implikacije.
05:21
I'll give you two quick ones.
122
306000
2000
Dat ću vam dva kratka primjera.
05:23
The first is that
123
308000
2000
Prvi je
05:25
the most important political value for the Chinese
124
310000
4000
da je za Kineze najveća politička vrijednost
05:29
is unity,
125
314000
2000
jedinstvo,
05:31
is the maintenance
126
316000
2000
održavanje
05:33
of Chinese civilization.
127
318000
2000
kineske civilizacije.
05:35
You know, 2,000 years ago, Europe:
128
320000
3000
Znate, prije 2.000 godina, u Europi:
05:38
breakdown -- the fragmentation of the Holy Roman Empire.
129
323000
3000
slom, razmrvljenost Svetog Rimskog Carstva.
05:41
It divided, and it's remained divided ever since.
130
326000
3000
Ono je podijeljeno i ostalo je podijeljeno od tada.
05:44
China, over the same time period,
131
329000
2000
Kina se, u istom tom razdoblju,
05:46
went in exactly the opposite direction,
132
331000
2000
kretala u potpuno obrnutom smjeru,
05:48
very painfully holding this huge civilization,
133
333000
3000
bolno održavajući ovu ogromnu civilizaciju,
05:51
civilization-state, together.
134
336000
3000
civilizacijsku državu, na okupu.
05:54
The second
135
339000
2000
Drugi primjer je
05:56
is maybe more prosaic,
136
341000
2000
možda prozaičniji,
05:58
which is Hong Kong.
137
343000
2000
a to je Hong Kong.
06:00
Do you remember the handover of Hong Kong
138
345000
3000
Sjećate li se britanske predaje Hong Konga
06:03
by Britain to China in 1997?
139
348000
2000
Kini 1997. godine?
06:05
You may remember
140
350000
2000
Možda ćete se sjetiti
06:07
what the Chinese constitutional proposition was.
141
352000
2000
što je bio kineski ustavni prijedlog.
06:09
One country, two systems.
142
354000
2000
Jedna zemlja, dva sustava.
06:11
And I'll lay a wager
143
356000
2000
I kladit ću se
06:13
that barely anyone in the West believed them.
144
358000
2000
da je jedva bilo ikoga na Zapadu tko im je vjerovao.
06:15
"Window dressing.
145
360000
2000
"Šarena laža.
06:17
When China gets its hands on Hong Kong,
146
362000
2000
Kad se Kina dočepa Hong Konga,
06:19
that won't be the case."
147
364000
2000
neće biti tako."
06:21
Thirteen years on,
148
366000
2000
13 godina nakon toga,
06:23
the political and legal system in Hong Kong
149
368000
2000
politički i pravni sustav u Hong Kongu
06:25
is as different now as it was in 1997.
150
370000
3000
jednako je različit danas kao što je bio i 1997.
06:28
We were wrong. Why were we wrong?
151
373000
3000
Pogriješili smo. Zašto smo pogriješili?
06:31
We were wrong because we thought, naturally enough,
152
376000
3000
Pogriješili smo jer smo mislili, prirodno,
06:34
in nation-state ways.
153
379000
2000
u terminima nacionalnih država.
06:36
Think of German unification, 1990.
154
381000
2000
Pomislite na njemačko ujedinjenje, 1990.
06:38
What happened?
155
383000
2000
Što se dogodilo?
06:40
Well, basically the East was swallowed by the West.
156
385000
2000
Pa, Istok je praktički bio progutan od Zapada.
06:42
One nation, one system.
157
387000
2000
Jedna zemlja, jedan sustav.
06:44
That is the nation-state mentality.
158
389000
3000
To je mentalitet nacionalne države.
06:47
But you can't run a country like China,
159
392000
3000
Ali ne možete upravljati zemljom poput Kine,
06:50
a civilization-state,
160
395000
2000
civilizacijskom državom,
06:52
on the basis of one civilization, one system.
161
397000
3000
na načelu jedna civilizacija, jedan sustav.
06:55
It doesn't work.
162
400000
2000
Ne funkcionira.
06:57
So actually the response of China
163
402000
3000
Pa je, u stvari, kineski odgovor
07:00
to the question of Hong Kong --
164
405000
2000
na pitanje Hong Konga --
07:02
as it will be to the question of Taiwan --
165
407000
2000
kao što će biti i na pitanje Taiwana --
07:04
was a natural response:
166
409000
2000
bio prirodan:
07:06
one civilization, many systems.
167
411000
3000
jedna civilizacija, mnogo sustava.
07:09
Let me offer you another building block
168
414000
2000
Dopustite da ponudim i drugi građevni blok
07:11
to try and understand China --
169
416000
2000
u pokušaju da razumijemo Kinu --
07:13
maybe not sort of a comfortable one.
170
418000
3000
možda ne tako ugodan.
07:16
The Chinese have a very, very different
171
421000
2000
Kinezi imaju jako, jako različit
07:18
conception of race
172
423000
2000
koncept rase
07:20
to most other countries.
173
425000
3000
od većine drugih zemalja.
07:23
Do you know,
174
428000
2000
Znate li da,
07:25
of the 1.3 billion Chinese,
175
430000
3000
od 1,3 milijarde Kineza,
07:28
over 90 percent of them
176
433000
2000
preko 90 posto njih
07:30
think they belong to the same race,
177
435000
3000
misli da pripadaju istoj rasi,
07:33
the Han?
178
438000
2000
rasi Han.
07:35
Now, this is completely different
179
440000
2000
Ovo je potpuno drukčije
07:37
from the world's [other] most populous countries.
180
442000
3000
od drugih zemalja s najbrojnijim stanovništvom.
07:40
India, the United States,
181
445000
2000
Indija, Sjedinjene Države,
07:42
Indonesia, Brazil --
182
447000
3000
Indonezija, Brazil --
07:45
all of them are multiracial.
183
450000
3000
sve su višerasne.
07:48
The Chinese don't feel like that.
184
453000
3000
Kinezi se ne osjećaju tako.
07:51
China is only multiracial
185
456000
2000
Kina je višerasna
07:53
really at the margins.
186
458000
3000
zapravo samo na rubovima.
07:56
So the question is, why?
187
461000
2000
Pa je pitanje, zašto?
07:58
Well the reason, I think, essentially
188
463000
2000
Mislim da je razlog, u suštini,
08:00
is, again, back to the civilization-state.
189
465000
3000
opet u civilizacijskoj državi.
08:03
A history of at least 2,000 years,
190
468000
3000
Povijest posljednjih 2.000 godina,
08:06
a history of conquest, occupation,
191
471000
2000
povijest osvajanja, zauzimanja,
08:08
absorption, assimilation and so on,
192
473000
2000
usisavanja, asimilacije i tako dalje,
08:10
led to the process by which,
193
475000
2000
vodilo je k procesu u kojem se,
08:12
over time, this notion of the Han emerged --
194
477000
3000
vremenom, pojavio ovaj Han identitet --
08:15
of course, nurtured
195
480000
2000
hranjen, naravno,
08:17
by a growing and very powerful sense
196
482000
3000
rastućim i vrlo moćnim osjećajem
08:20
of cultural identity.
197
485000
3000
kulturnog identiteta.
08:23
Now the great advantage of this historical experience
198
488000
3000
Velika prednost ovog povijesnog iskustva
08:26
has been that, without the Han,
199
491000
4000
bila je da se, bez Hana,
08:30
China could never have held together.
200
495000
2000
Kina nikad ne bi održala na okupu.
08:32
The Han identity has been the cement
201
497000
3000
Han identitet je bio cement
08:35
which has held this country together.
202
500000
3000
koji je zemlju zadržao na okupu.
08:38
The great disadvantage of it
203
503000
2000
Velika mana toga je u tome
08:40
is that the Han have a very weak conception
204
505000
2000
da Han koncept ima vrlo slabu predodžbu
08:42
of cultural difference.
205
507000
2000
o kulturnim različitostima.
08:44
They really believe
206
509000
3000
Oni stvarno vjeruju
08:47
in their own superiority,
207
512000
2000
u vlastitu superiornost,
08:49
and they are disrespectful
208
514000
2000
i ne poštuju
08:51
of those who are not.
209
516000
2000
one koji nisu Han.
08:53
Hence their attitude, for example,
210
518000
2000
Otuda njihov odnos, na primjer,
08:55
to the Uyghurs and to the Tibetans.
211
520000
3000
prema Ujgurima i Tibetancima.
08:59
Or let me give you my third building block,
212
524000
2000
Ili da vam predstavim i treći građevni element,
09:01
the Chinese state.
213
526000
2000
kinesku državu.
09:03
Now the relationship
214
528000
2000
Odnos između
09:05
between the state and society in China
215
530000
3000
države i društva u Kini
09:08
is very different from that in the West.
216
533000
3000
je vrlo različit od onoga na Zapadu.
09:12
Now we in the West
217
537000
2000
Mi na Zapadu
09:14
overwhelmingly seem to think -- in these days at least --
218
539000
2000
pretežno mislimo – ovih dana, barem --
09:16
that the authority and legitimacy of the state
219
541000
4000
da su autoritet i legitimnost države
09:20
is a function of democracy.
220
545000
3000
funkcija demokracije.
09:23
The problem with this proposition
221
548000
2000
Problem s ovom pretpostavkom
09:25
is that the Chinese state
222
550000
4000
je u tome da kineska država
09:29
enjoys more legitimacy
223
554000
2000
uživa više legitimnosti
09:31
and more authority
224
556000
2000
i više autoriteta
09:33
amongst the Chinese
225
558000
3000
među Kinezima
09:36
than is true
226
561000
2000
nego što to vrijedi
09:38
with any Western state.
227
563000
3000
za bilo koju zapadnu državu.
09:42
And the reason for this
228
567000
2000
Razlog za to
09:44
is because --
229
569000
2000
je taj --
09:46
well, there are two reasons, I think.
230
571000
2000
no, dva su razloga, mislim.
09:48
And it's obviously got nothing to do with democracy,
231
573000
2000
I oni očito nemaju ništa s demokracijom,
09:50
because in our terms the Chinese certainly don't have a democracy.
232
575000
3000
jer, u našem smislu riječi, Kinezi sigurno nemaju demokraciju.
09:53
And the reason for this is,
233
578000
2000
Razlog je,
09:55
firstly, because the state in China
234
580000
3000
prvo, u tome što je državi u Kini
09:58
is given a very special --
235
583000
3000
dana vrlo posebna --
10:01
it enjoys a very special significance
236
586000
2000
ona uživa poseban značaj
10:03
as the representative,
237
588000
2000
kao zastupnik,
10:05
the embodiment and the guardian
238
590000
3000
utjelovljenje i čuvar
10:08
of Chinese civilization,
239
593000
2000
kineske civilizacije,
10:10
of the civilization-state.
240
595000
3000
civilizacijske države.
10:13
This is as close as China gets
241
598000
2000
Ovo je onoliko blizu duhovnoj ulozi
10:15
to a kind of spiritual role.
242
600000
3000
koliko Kina uopće može biti.
10:19
And the second reason is because,
243
604000
2000
A drugi razlog je u tome,
10:21
whereas in Europe
244
606000
2000
dok se u Europi
10:23
and North America,
245
608000
2000
i sjevernoj Americi,
10:25
the state's power is continuously challenged --
246
610000
3000
državna moć neprestano osporava --
10:28
I mean in the European tradition,
247
613000
2000
mislim na europsku tradiciju,
10:30
historically against the church,
248
615000
2000
povijesno protiv crkve,
10:32
against other sectors of the aristocracy,
249
617000
2000
protiv drugih dijelova aristokracije,
10:34
against merchants and so on --
250
619000
2000
protiv trgovaca, i tako dalje --
10:36
for 1,000 years,
251
621000
2000
tijekom 1.000 godina,
10:38
the power of the Chinese state
252
623000
2000
moć kineske države
10:40
has not been challenged.
253
625000
2000
nitko nije izazvao.
10:42
It's had no serious rivals.
254
627000
3000
Nije imala ozbiljnih suparnika.
10:46
So you can see
255
631000
2000
Tako vidite
10:48
that the way in which power has been constructed in China
256
633000
4000
da je način na koji je moć uspostavljena u Kini
10:52
is very different from our experience
257
637000
2000
jako različit od našeg iskustva
10:54
in Western history.
258
639000
3000
u povijesti Zapada.
10:57
The result, by the way,
259
642000
2000
Rezultat je, usput rečeno,
10:59
is that the Chinese have a very different view of the state.
260
644000
4000
da Kinezi na vrlo različit način vide državu.
11:04
Whereas we tend to view it as an intruder,
261
649000
3000
Dok je mi vidimo kao uljeza,
11:07
a stranger,
262
652000
3000
stranca,
11:10
certainly an organ
263
655000
2000
svakako kao organ
11:12
whose powers need to be limited
264
657000
3000
čiju moć treba ograničiti
11:15
or defined and constrained,
265
660000
2000
ili definirati i sputati,
11:17
the Chinese don't see the state like that at all.
266
662000
2000
Kinezi uopće tako ne vide državu.
11:19
The Chinese view the state
267
664000
3000
Kinezi vide državu
11:22
as an intimate -- not just as an intimate actually,
268
667000
3000
kao blisku – ne samo blisku, zapravo,
11:25
as a member of the family --
269
670000
2000
kao člana obitelji --
11:27
not just in fact as a member of the family,
270
672000
2000
u stvari, ne samo ni kao člana obitelji,
11:29
but as the head of the family,
271
674000
2000
već kao glavu obitelji,
11:31
the patriarch of the family.
272
676000
2000
patrijarha obitelji.
11:33
This is the Chinese view of the state --
273
678000
3000
To je kineski pogled na državu --
11:36
very, very different to ours.
274
681000
2000
vrlo, vrlo različit od našeg.
11:38
It's embedded in society in a different kind of way
275
683000
3000
On je uklopljen u društvo na različit način
11:41
to what is the case
276
686000
2000
nego što je slučaj
11:43
in the West.
277
688000
2000
na Zapadu.
11:45
And I would suggest to you that actually what we are dealing with here,
278
690000
3000
Predložio bih vam da ono sa čime zapravo imamo posla ovdje,
11:48
in the Chinese context,
279
693000
3000
u kineskom kontekstu,
11:51
is a new kind of paradigm,
280
696000
2000
da je to nova paradigma,
11:53
which is different from anything
281
698000
2000
koja je različita od bilo čega
11:55
we've had to think about in the past.
282
700000
3000
o čemu smo morali razmišljati u prošlosti.
11:59
Know that China believes in the market and the state.
283
704000
3000
Znajte da Kina vjeruje u tržište i državu.
12:02
I mean, Adam Smith,
284
707000
2000
Mislim, Adam Smith je,
12:04
already writing in the late 18th century, said,
285
709000
3000
još u kasnom 18. stoljeću, napisao,
12:07
"The Chinese market is larger and more developed
286
712000
2000
"Kinesko tržište je veće i razvijenije
12:09
and more sophisticated
287
714000
2000
i profinjenije
12:11
than anything in Europe."
288
716000
2000
od bilo kojeg u Europi."
12:13
And, apart from the Mao period,
289
718000
2000
I, ako izuzmemo razdoblje Mao,
12:15
that has remained more or less the case ever since.
290
720000
2000
tako je ostalo, više ili manje, do danas.
12:17
But this is combined
291
722000
2000
Ali to je kombinirano
12:19
with an extremely strong and ubiquitous state.
292
724000
4000
s izuzetno snažnom i sveprisutnom državom.
12:23
The state is everywhere in China.
293
728000
2000
Država je posvuda u Kini.
12:25
I mean, it's leading firms --
294
730000
2000
Mislim, ona upravlja poduzećima,
12:27
many of them are still publicly owned.
295
732000
3000
mnoga su još uvijek u javnom vlasništvu.
12:30
Private firms, however large they are, like Lenovo,
296
735000
3000
Privatne tvrtke, koliko god velike bile, poput tvrtke Lenovo,
12:33
depend in many ways on state patronage.
297
738000
2000
na mnoge načine ovise o državnom patronatu.
12:35
Targets for the economy and so on
298
740000
2000
Gospodarske ciljeve i ostalo
12:37
are set by the state.
299
742000
2000
postavlja država.
12:39
And the state, of course, its authority flows into lots of other areas --
300
744000
2000
I država, naravno, njezin autoritet ulazi u mnoga druga područja --
12:41
as we are familiar with --
301
746000
2000
kao što smo upoznati --
12:43
with something like the one-child policy.
302
748000
2000
poput politike rađanja samo jednog djeteta.
12:45
Moreover, this is a very old state tradition,
303
750000
3000
Nadalje, ovo je vrlo stara državna tradicija,
12:48
a very old tradition of statecraft.
304
753000
2000
vrlo stara tradicija umijeća upravljanja državom.
12:50
I mean, if you want an illustration of this,
305
755000
3000
Mislim, ako želite ilustraciju ovoga,
12:53
the Great Wall is one.
306
758000
2000
Kineski zid je jedna.
12:55
But this is another, this is the Grand Canal,
307
760000
2000
Ali ovo je druga, Veliki Kanal,
12:57
which was constructed in the first instance
308
762000
2000
prvi dio koji je izgrađen
12:59
in the fifth century B.C.
309
764000
2000
u petom stoljeću pr.Kr.
13:01
and was finally completed
310
766000
2000
i konačno je dovršen
13:03
in the seventh century A.D.
311
768000
2000
u sedmom stoljeću n.e.
13:05
It went for 1,114 miles,
312
770000
4000
Protezao se na 1.780 kilometara,
13:09
linking Beijing
313
774000
2000
povezujući Peking
13:11
with Hangzhou and Shanghai.
314
776000
3000
s Hangzhou i Šangajem.
13:14
So there's a long history
315
779000
2000
Postoji, dakle, duga povijest
13:16
of extraordinary state infrastructural projects
316
781000
3000
izvanrednih državnih infrastrukturnih projekata
13:19
in China,
317
784000
2000
u Kini,
13:21
which I suppose helps us to explain what we see today,
318
786000
3000
koja nam, pretpostavljam, pomaže objasniti ono što vidimo danas,
13:24
which is something like the Three Gorges Dam
319
789000
2000
nešto poput brane Tri Klanca (Three Gorges Dam)
13:26
and many other expressions
320
791000
2000
i mnogih drugih primjera
13:28
of state competence
321
793000
2000
kompetentnosti države
13:30
within China.
322
795000
2000
u Kini.
13:32
So there we have three building blocks
323
797000
3000
To su, eto, tri građevna bloka
13:35
for trying to understand the difference that is China --
324
800000
3000
kojima pokušavamo shvatiti različitost koju predstavlja Kina --
13:38
the civilization-state,
325
803000
3000
civilizacijska država,
13:41
the notion of race
326
806000
2000
shvaćanje rase
13:43
and the nature of the state
327
808000
2000
i priroda države
13:45
and its relationship to society.
328
810000
3000
i njezin međuodnos s društvom.
13:48
And yet we still insist, by and large,
329
813000
3000
Pa ipak i dalje ustrajemo, uglavnom,
13:51
in thinking that we can understand China
330
816000
4000
u razmišljanju da Kinu možemo shvatiti
13:55
by simply drawing on Western experience,
331
820000
3000
jednostavno koristeći zapadnjačko iskustvo,
13:58
looking at it through Western eyes,
332
823000
3000
gledajući na nju zapadnjačkim očima,
14:01
using Western concepts.
333
826000
2000
koristeći zapadnjačke koncepte.
14:03
If you want to know why
334
828000
2000
Ako želite znati zašto
14:05
we unerringly seem to get China wrong --
335
830000
3000
izgleda da nepogrešivo pogrešno shvaćamo Kinu --
14:08
our predictions about what's going to happen to China are incorrect --
336
833000
3000
naše prognoze o tome što će se dogoditi u Kini su netočne --
14:11
this is the reason.
337
836000
4000
to je razlog.
14:15
Unfortunately, I think,
338
840000
2000
Na žalost, mislim,
14:17
I have to say that I think
339
842000
3000
moram reći da mislim
14:20
attitude towards China
340
845000
2000
da je stav prema Kini
14:22
is that of a kind of little Westerner mentality.
341
847000
3000
mentalitet malog Zapadnjaka.
14:25
It's kind of arrogant.
342
850000
2000
Na određeni način je arogantan.
14:27
It's arrogant in the sense
343
852000
2000
Arogantan u smislu
14:29
that we think that we are best,
344
854000
2000
da mislimo da smo najbolji,
14:31
and therefore we have the universal measure.
345
856000
3000
i stoga imamo univerzalno mjerilo vrijednosti.
14:35
And secondly, it's ignorant.
346
860000
2000
I drugo, to je stav neznanja.
14:37
We refuse to really address
347
862000
3000
Odbijamo se doista posvetiti
14:40
the issue of difference.
348
865000
2000
problemu različitosti.
14:42
You know, there's a very interesting passage
349
867000
2000
Znate, ima jedan zanimljiv odlomak
14:44
in a book by Paul Cohen, the American historian.
350
869000
3000
u knjizi Paula Cohena, američkog povjesničara.
14:47
And Paul Cohen argues
351
872000
3000
Paul Cohen argumentira
14:50
that the West thinks of itself
352
875000
4000
da Zapad o sebi misli
14:54
as probably the most cosmopolitan
353
879000
2000
kao o kulturi koja je
14:56
of all cultures.
354
881000
2000
vjerojatno najkozmopolitskija od svih.
14:58
But it's not.
355
883000
2000
Ali nije.
15:00
In many ways,
356
885000
2000
U mnogim pogledima,
15:02
it's the most parochial,
357
887000
2000
ona je zatvorenija,
15:04
because for 200 years,
358
889000
3000
jer je tijekom 200 godina,
15:07
the West has been so dominant in the world
359
892000
3000
Zapad bio toliko dominantan u svijetu
15:10
that it's not really needed
360
895000
2000
da mu nije zapravo trebalo
15:12
to understand other cultures,
361
897000
3000
razumjeti druge kulture,
15:15
other civilizations.
362
900000
2000
druge civilizacije.
15:17
Because, at the end of the day,
363
902000
2000
Zato što je mogao, kad se crta podvuče,
15:19
it could, if necessary by force,
364
904000
3000
ako je bilo nužno,
15:22
get its own way.
365
907000
2000
i silom provesti svoju volju.
15:24
Whereas those cultures --
366
909000
2000
Dok su druge kulture --
15:26
virtually the rest of the world, in fact,
367
911000
3000
doslovno ostatak svijeta, u stvari --
15:29
which have been in a far weaker position, vis-a-vis the West --
368
914000
3000
koje su bile u slabijem položaju prema Zapadu,
15:32
have been thereby forced to understand the West,
369
917000
3000
bile prisiljene razumjeti Zapad,
15:35
because of the West's presence in those societies.
370
920000
3000
zbog prisustva Zapada u njihovim društvima.
15:38
And therefore, they are, as a result,
371
923000
3000
I stoga je posljedica toga,
15:41
more cosmopolitan in many ways than the West.
372
926000
3000
da su u mnogim pogledima više kozmopolitske od Zapada.
15:44
I mean, take the question of East Asia.
373
929000
2000
Mislim, uzmite istočnu Aziju.
15:46
East Asia: Japan, Korea, China, etc. --
374
931000
3000
Istočna Azija: Japan, Koreja, Kina, itd. --
15:49
a third of the world's population lives there.
375
934000
2000
trećina svjetskog stanovništva živi ondje,
15:51
Now the largest economic region in the world.
376
936000
2000
u danas najvećoj ekonomskoj regiji svijeta.
15:53
And I'll tell you now,
377
938000
2000
I reći ću vam sada,
15:55
that East Asianers, people from East Asia,
378
940000
2000
da istočni Azijci, ljudi iz istočne Azije,
15:57
are far more knowledgeable
379
942000
2000
znaju puno više
15:59
about the West
380
944000
2000
o Zapadu
16:01
than the West is about East Asia.
381
946000
4000
nego što Zapad zna o istočnoj Aziji.
16:05
Now this point is very germane, I'm afraid,
382
950000
3000
Ta je činjenica, bojim se,
16:08
to the present.
383
953000
2000
vrlo bitna za sadašnjost.
16:10
Because what's happening? Back to that chart at the beginning,
384
955000
3000
Jer što se događa? Vratimo se na grafikon s početka --
16:13
the Goldman Sachs chart.
385
958000
2000
grafikon Goldman Sachsa.
16:15
What is happening
386
960000
2000
Što se događa je to
16:17
is that, very rapidly in historical terms,
387
962000
3000
da se, vrlo brzo u povijesnim okvirima,
16:20
the world is being driven
388
965000
3000
svijet kreće
16:23
and shaped,
389
968000
2000
i oblikuje,
16:25
not by the old developed countries,
390
970000
2000
ne od strane starih razvijenih zemalja,
16:27
but by the developing world.
391
972000
2000
već od zemalja u razvoju.
16:29
We've seen this
392
974000
2000
Vidjeli smo to
16:31
in terms of the G20
393
976000
2000
na primjeru skupine G20 --
16:33
usurping very rapidly the position of the G7,
394
978000
3000
koja vrlo brzo preuzima položaj skupine G7,
16:36
or the G8.
395
981000
3000
ili skupine G8.
16:40
And there are two consequences of this.
396
985000
3000
A to ima dvije posljedice.
16:43
First, the West
397
988000
2000
Prvo, Zapad
16:45
is rapidly losing
398
990000
2000
brzo gubi
16:47
its influence in the world.
399
992000
2000
svoj utjecaj u svijetu.
16:49
There was a dramatic illustration of this actually a year ago --
400
994000
3000
Ima dramatičan primjer ovoga otprije godinu dana --
16:52
Copenhagen, climate change conference.
401
997000
2000
Kopenhagen, konferencija o klimatskim promjenama.
16:54
Europe was not at the final negotiating table.
402
999000
2000
Europa nije bila za posljednjim pregovaračkim stolom.
16:56
When did that last happen?
403
1001000
2000
Kada se tako što posljednji put dogodilo?
16:58
I would wager it was probably about 200 years ago.
404
1003000
3000
Kladio bih se da je to bilo prije 200 godina.
17:01
And that is what is going to happen in the future.
405
1006000
3000
To je ono što će se događati u budućnosti.
17:04
And the second implication
406
1009000
2000
A druga implikacija je ta
17:06
is that the world will inevitably, as a consequence,
407
1011000
3000
da će nam svijet neizbježno, kao posljedica ovoga,
17:09
become increasingly unfamiliar to us,
408
1014000
4000
postajati sve više i više nepoznat,
17:13
because it'll be shaped by cultures and experiences and histories
409
1018000
3000
jer će ga oblikovati kulture i iskustva i povijest
17:16
that we are not really familiar with,
410
1021000
3000
koje nam zapravo nisu bliske,
17:19
or conversant with.
411
1024000
2000
niti o njima znamo.
17:21
And at last, I'm afraid -- take Europe;
412
1026000
2000
I napokon, bojim se – pogledajte Europu,
17:23
America is slightly different --
413
1028000
2000
Amerika je malo drugačija --
17:25
but Europeans by and large, I have to say,
414
1030000
3000
ali Europljani uglavnom, moram reći,
17:28
are ignorant,
415
1033000
3000
nisu upoznati,
17:31
are unaware
416
1036000
2000
niti svjesni
17:33
about the way the world is changing.
417
1038000
3000
načina na koji se svijet mijenja.
17:36
Some people -- I've got an English friend in China,
418
1041000
3000
Neki ljudi – imam prijatelja Engleza u Kini,
17:39
and he said, "The continent is sleepwalking into oblivion."
419
1044000
3000
koji kaže, „Kontinent u snu hoda prema zaboravu."
17:44
Well, maybe that's true,
420
1049000
2000
Pa, možda je to točno,
17:46
maybe that's an exaggeration.
421
1051000
2000
a možda je pretjerivanje.
17:48
But there's another problem which goes along with this --
422
1053000
3000
Ali tu je još jedan problem povezan s ovim --
17:51
that Europe is increasingly out of touch with the world --
423
1056000
3000
da Europa sve više gubi dodir sa svijetom --
17:54
and that is a sort of
424
1059000
3000
i to je na neki način
17:57
loss of a sense of the future.
425
1062000
2000
gubitak osjećaja budućnosti.
17:59
I mean, Europe once, of course, once commanded the future
426
1064000
3000
Mislim, Europa je nekad upravljala budućnošću
18:02
in its confidence.
427
1067000
2000
u svom samopouzdanju.
18:04
Take the 19th century, for example.
428
1069000
3000
Pogledajte, na primjer, 19. stoljeće.
18:07
But this, alas, is no longer true.
429
1072000
3000
Ali ovo, avaj, nije više istina.
18:10
If you want to feel the future, if you want to taste the future,
430
1075000
3000
Ako želite osjetiti budućnost, ako želite okusiti budućnost,
18:13
try China -- there's old Confucius.
431
1078000
3000
probajte u Kini – tamo je stari Konfucije.
18:16
This is a railway station
432
1081000
2000
Ovo je željeznički kolodvor
18:18
the likes of which you've never seen before.
433
1083000
2000
kakav još nikada niste vidjeli.
18:20
It doesn't even look like a railway station.
434
1085000
2000
Čak i ne izgleda poput kolodvora.
18:22
This is the new [Wuhan] railway station
435
1087000
2000
Ovo je novi kolodvor Guangzhou
18:24
for the high-speed trains.
436
1089000
2000
za visokobrzinske vlakove.
18:26
China already has a bigger network
437
1091000
2000
Kina već ima veću željezničku mrežu
18:28
than any other country in the world
438
1093000
2000
od bilo koje zemlje svijeta
18:30
and will soon have more than all the rest of the world put together.
439
1095000
4000
i uskoro će imati veću od svih zemalja svijeta zajedno.
18:34
Or take this: now this is an idea,
440
1099000
2000
Ili pogledajte ovo: Ovo je samo ideja,
18:36
but it's an idea to be tried out shortly
441
1101000
3000
ali to je ideja koju će uskoro isprobati
18:39
in a suburb of Beijing.
442
1104000
2000
u predgrađu Pekinga.
18:41
Here you have a megabus,
443
1106000
3000
Ovdje vidite mega autobus,
18:44
on the upper deck carries about 2,000 people.
444
1109000
3000
na gornjoj platformi prima 2.000 ljudi.
18:47
It travels on rails
445
1112000
2000
Putuje po tračnicama
18:49
down a suburban road,
446
1114000
2000
na cesti u predgrađu,
18:51
and the cars travel underneath it.
447
1116000
3000
a automobili voze ispod njega.
18:54
And it does speeds of up to about 100 miles an hour.
448
1119000
3000
Postiže brzinu od oko 160 kilometara na sat.
18:57
Now this is the way things are going to move,
449
1122000
3000
Na ovaj način će se stvari odvijati,
19:00
because China has a very specific problem,
450
1125000
2000
jer Kina ima vrlo specifičan problem,
19:02
which is different from Europe
451
1127000
2000
koji je različit od problema u Europi
19:04
and different from the United States:
452
1129000
2000
i od problema u Sjedinjenim Državama.
19:06
China has huge numbers of people and no space.
453
1131000
3000
Kina ima ogroman broj ljudi, a nema prostora.
19:09
So this is a solution to a situation
454
1134000
2000
Pa je ovo rješenje za situaciju
19:11
where China's going to have
455
1136000
2000
u kojoj će Kina imati
19:13
many, many, many cities
456
1138000
2000
mnogo, mnogo, mnogo gradova
19:15
over 20 million people.
457
1140000
2000
s više od 20 milijuna stanovnika.
19:17
Okay, so how would I like to finish?
458
1142000
3000
OK, kako bih želio završiti?
19:20
Well, what should our attitude be
459
1145000
3000
Dakle, kakav bi naš stav trebao biti
19:23
towards this world
460
1148000
3000
prema svijetu
19:26
that we see
461
1151000
2000
koji se, kako vidimo,
19:28
very rapidly developing
462
1153000
2000
razvija vrlo brzo
19:30
before us?
463
1155000
2000
pred našim očima?
19:33
I think there will be good things about it and there will be bad things about it.
464
1158000
3000
Mislim da će biti dobrih stvari i loših stvari u njemu.
19:36
But I want to argue, above all,
465
1161000
2000
Ali ono što želim iznijeti je, iznad svega,
19:38
a big-picture positive for this world.
466
1163000
3000
makro plan, pozitivan za taj svijet.
19:43
For 200 years,
467
1168000
2000
Tijekom 200 godina,
19:45
the world was essentially governed
468
1170000
6000
svijetom je, u suštini, upravljao
19:51
by a fragment of the human population.
469
1176000
4000
tek dio svjetskog stanovništva.
19:55
That's what Europe and North America represented.
470
1180000
4000
To je ono što su predstavljale Europa i sjeverna Amerika.
19:59
The arrival of countries
471
1184000
2000
Dolazak zemalja
20:01
like China and India --
472
1186000
2000
poput Kine i Indije --
20:03
between them 38 percent of the world's population --
473
1188000
2000
samo na njih dvije otpada 38 posto svjetskog stanovništva --
20:05
and others like Indonesia and Brazil and so on,
474
1190000
3000
i drugih, poput Indonezije, Brazila i tako dalje,
20:11
represent the most important single act
475
1196000
3000
predstavlja najvažniji pojedinačni čin
20:14
of democratization
476
1199000
2000
demokratizacije
20:16
in the last 200 years.
477
1201000
2000
u proteklih 200 godina.
20:18
Civilizations and cultures,
478
1203000
2000
Civilizacije i kulture,
20:20
which had been ignored, which had no voice,
479
1205000
3000
koje su bile ignorirane, koje nisu imale glasa,
20:23
which were not listened to, which were not known about,
480
1208000
2000
koje se nije slušalo, o kojima se nije znalo,
20:25
will have a different sort
481
1210000
2000
imat će drugačiju
20:27
of representation in this world.
482
1212000
3000
zastupljenost u tom svijetu.
20:30
As humanists, we must welcome, surely,
483
1215000
2000
Kao humanisti, svakako moramo pozdraviti
20:32
this transformation,
484
1217000
2000
ovu transformaciju.
20:34
and we will have to learn
485
1219000
2000
I morat ćemo učiti
20:36
about these civilizations.
486
1221000
2000
o tim civilizacijama.
20:38
This big ship here
487
1223000
3000
Na ovom velikom brodu ovdje
20:41
was the one sailed in by Zheng He
488
1226000
2000
plovio je Zheng He
20:43
in the early 15th century
489
1228000
2000
u ranom 15. stoljeću
20:45
on his great voyages
490
1230000
2000
na svojim velikim putovanjima
20:47
around the South China Sea, the East China Sea
491
1232000
3000
po Južnokineskom moru, Istočnokineskom moru
20:50
and across the Indian Ocean to East Africa.
492
1235000
3000
i poprijeko Indijskog oceana prema istočnoj Africi.
20:53
The little boat in front of it
493
1238000
4000
Brodić ispred njega
20:57
was the one in which, 80 years later,
494
1242000
2000
je onaj na kojem je, 80 godina kasnije,
20:59
Christopher Columbus crossed the Atlantic.
495
1244000
3000
Christopher Columbus preplovio Atlantik.
21:02
(Laughter)
496
1247000
2000
(Smijeh)
21:04
Or, look carefully
497
1249000
2000
Ili, pogledajte pažljivo
21:06
at this silk scroll
498
1251000
2000
ovaj svileni svitak
21:08
made by ZhuZhou
499
1253000
3000
kojega je načinio ZhuZhou
21:11
in 1368.
500
1256000
3000
godine 1368.
21:14
I think they're playing golf.
501
1259000
2000
Mislim da igraju golf.
21:16
Christ, the Chinese even invented golf.
502
1261000
3000
Kriste, Kinezi su čak i golf izmislili.
21:19
Welcome to the future. Thank you.
503
1264000
3000
Dobrodošli u budućnost. Hvala vam.
21:22
(Applause)
504
1267000
3000
(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Martin Jacques - Writer, columnistMartin Jacques is the author of "When China Rules the World," and a columnist for the Guardian and New Statesman. He was a co-founder of the think tank Demos.
Why you should listen
Martin Jacques is the author of When China Rules the World: The Rise of the Middle Kingdom and the End of the Western World. He is a Senior Fellow at the Department of Politics and International Studies, Cambridge University, and a Visiting Professor at Tsinghua University, Beijing. He is also a non-resident Fellow at the Transatlantic Academy, Washington DC. He is a columnist for the Guardian and the New Statesman.
His interest in East Asia began in 1993 with a holiday in China, Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaysia. After that, he found every reason or excuse he could find to spend time in the region, be it personal, for newspaper articles or television programs. In 1977, he became editor of Marxism Today, a post he held for fourteen years, transforming what was an obscure and dull journal into the most influential political publication in Britain, read and respected on the right and left alike.
In 1991, he closed Marxism Today and in 1994 became the deputy editor of the Independent newspaper, a post he held until 1996. In 1993 he co-founded the think-tank Demos.
Martin Jacques | Speaker | TED.com