TEDSalon London 2010
Martin Jacques: Understanding the rise of China
马丁·雅克Martin Jacques：了解中国的崛起
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在TED伦敦沙龙会上，经济学家马丁·雅克Martin Jacques问：在西方我们对中国和它显著的崛起现象有多少认识？作为《当中国统治世界》的作者，他解释了西方国家常常对中国经济的快速增长力感到困惑的理由，他提出3个基础观点来帮助我们理解当代的中国现实和中国未来的展望。
Martin Jacques - Writer, columnist
Martin Jacques is the author of "When China Rules the World," and a columnist for the Guardian and New Statesman. He was a co-founder of the think tank Demos. Full bio
Martin Jacques is the author of "When China Rules the World," and a columnist for the Guardian and New Statesman. He was a co-founder of the think tank Demos. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
The world is changing
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世界正在
00:17
with really remarkable speed.
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以惊人的速度飞快得改变着。
00:20
If you look at the chart at the top here,
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如果你看着这上方的图表，
00:22
you'll see that in 2025,
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你会看到在2025年，
00:24
these Goldman Sachs projections
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高盛投资公司的这些预测
00:26
suggest that the Chinese economy
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表明中国经济规模
00:28
will be almost the same size as the American economy.
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会和美国经济几乎相当。
00:31
And if you look at the chart
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如果看
00:34
for 2050,
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2050年的图表，
00:36
it's projected that the Chinese economy
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预测表明中国经济规模
00:39
will be twice the size of the American economy,
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将会是美国经济的两倍，
00:42
and the Indian economy will be almost the same size
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印度的经济规模将会和
00:44
as the American economy.
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美国的经济几乎持平。
00:47
And we should bear in mind here
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在这里，我们应该记住
00:49
that these projections were drawn up
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这些预测是在
00:51
before the Western financial crisis.
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西方经济危机之前做出的。
00:54
A couple of weeks ago,
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几周前，
00:56
I was looking at the latest projection
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我查看法国巴黎银行的
00:58
by BNP Paribas
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最近预测，
01:00
for when China
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中国在什么时候
01:03
will have a larger economy
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会超越美国经济，
01:05
than the United States.
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成为第一大经济体。
01:07
Goldman Sachs projected 2027.
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高盛投资公司预测2027年。
01:11
The post-crisis projection
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危机过后的预测
01:14
is 2020.
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是2020年。
01:17
That's just a decade away.
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这也不过只有10年的光景。
01:19
China is going to change the world
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中国将在两个基本方面上
01:23
in two fundamental respects.
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改变世界。
01:26
First of all,
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首先，
01:28
it's a huge developing country
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中国是一个幅员广大的发展中国家
01:30
with a population of 1.3 billion people,
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它有13亿人口，
01:34
which has been growing for over 30 years
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在过去30年间
01:37
at around 10 percent a year.
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它以每年10%左右的经济增长率发展。
01:39
And within a decade,
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在未来10年间，
01:41
it will have the largest economy in the world.
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它会有世界上最大的经济体。
01:45
Never before in the modern era
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在世界现代史中，以前从来都是发达国家
01:48
has the largest economy in the world
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还没有一个发展中的国家
01:51
been that of a developing country,
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变成了世界上
01:53
rather than a developed country.
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最大的经济体。
01:57
Secondly,
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第二，
01:59
for the first time in the modern era,
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在现代史中第一次
02:01
the dominant country in the world --
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在世界上，
02:03
which I think is what China will become --
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我认为中国会变成大国，
02:06
will be not from the West
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它有别于西方国家
02:09
and from very, very different civilizational roots.
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而它是从非常，非常不同的文明根源发展起的大国。
02:13
Now, I know it's a widespread assumption in the West
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现在我知道西方国家有一个普遍的假设
02:17
that as countries modernize,
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随着国家的现代化，
02:20
they also westernize.
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它们也会西方化。
02:22
This is an illusion.
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这是个幻想。
02:24
It's an assumption that modernity
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这是对于现代化
02:26
is a product simply of competition, markets and technology.
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仅仅是竞争，市场和技术的一种产品的假设。
02:29
It is not. It is also shaped equally
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中国的现代化不仅仅是这样的，也是由
02:31
by history and culture.
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历史和文化共同作用下形成的。
02:33
China is not like the West,
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中国不同于西方国家，
02:36
and it will not become like the West.
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它也不会变成和西方国家一样。
02:39
It will remain in very fundamental respects
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它会在非常基础的方面表现得
02:41
very different.
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非常不同。
02:43
Now the big question here is obviously,
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现在这的大问题明显是，
02:46
how do we make sense of China?
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我们该怎样认识中国？
02:48
How do we try to understand what China is?
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我们该怎样了解中国？
02:50
And the problem we have in the West at the moment, by and large,
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在西方我们现在的问题大体上
02:53
is that the conventional approach
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是传统的方法
02:55
is that we understand it really in Western terms,
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我们用西方的术语，用西方的观点来了解
02:57
using Western ideas.
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真正的中国。
03:00
We can't.
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我们不能这样。
03:02
Now I want to offer you
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现在我想给大家
03:04
three building blocks
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3个基础理由
03:06
for trying to understand what China is like,
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来试着了解中国
03:09
just as a beginning.
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只是起个头。
03:11
The first is this:
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首先是这个，
03:13
that China is not really a nation-state.
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中国事实上不是一个民族国家。
03:16
Okay, it's called itself a nation-state
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在过去的几百年，中国自称是一个
03:18
for the last hundred years,
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民族国家。
03:20
but everyone who knows anything about China
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但对中国很了解的人
03:22
knows it's a lot older than this.
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知道中国比这历史要悠久得多。
03:24
This was what China looked like with the victory of the Qin Dynasty
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中国是
03:27
in 221 B.C. at the end of the warring-state period --
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在公元前221年也就在战国时期的末期从秦朝一统江山起，
03:30
the birth of modern China.
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现代中国就诞生了。
03:32
And you can see it against the boundaries of modern China.
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你可以看到现代中国的边界线。
03:35
Or immediately afterward, the Han Dynasty,
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随之其后的汉朝，
03:37
still 2,000 years ago.
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还在2000年前。
03:39
And you can see already it occupies
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你可以看出中国已经占据
03:41
most of what we now know as Eastern China,
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我们现在所知的华东地区的大部分，
03:43
which is where the vast majority of Chinese lived then
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绝大多数的中国人当时在那儿居住
03:46
and live now.
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现在还生活在那儿。
03:48
Now what is extraordinary about this
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这点非同寻常的
03:50
is, what gives China its sense of being China,
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是，它赋予了中国做为中国的意义，
03:53
what gives the Chinese
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也赋予了中国人
03:56
the sense of what it is to be Chinese,
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成为他们中国人的意义，
03:59
comes not from the last hundred years,
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这不是从过去几百年，
04:01
not from the nation-state period,
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也不是从民族国家开始形成这种认识，
04:03
which is what happened in the West,
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这跟西方发展也不一样，
04:06
but from the period, if you like,
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而这一阶段，如果你喜欢，
04:08
of the civilization-state.
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可以说是文明国家的阶段。
04:10
I'm thinking here, for example,
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我想到这儿，举个例子吧，
04:13
of customs like ancestral worship,
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传统习惯例如：对祖先的崇拜，
04:16
of a very distinctive notion of the state,
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非常有特色的国家概念，
04:19
likewise, a very distinctive notion of the family,
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诸如此类的，非常有特色的家庭观念，
04:22
social relationships like guanxi,
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社交关系如关系，
04:24
Confucian values and so on.
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儒家价值观等等。
04:26
These are all things that come
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所有这些事都来自于
04:28
from the period of the civilization-state.
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文明国家的阶段。
04:31
In other words, China, unlike the Western states and most countries in the world,
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换言之，中国不像世界上的西方国家和多数国家，
04:34
is shaped by its sense of civilization,
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它由它自身文明所形成，
04:37
its existence as a civilization-state,
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它是作为一个文明国家
04:39
rather than as a nation-state.
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而不是一个民族国家而存在的。
04:41
And there's one other thing to add to this, and that is this:
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还有另一件事要加进来，这就是：
04:44
Of course we know China's big, huge,
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当然我们知道中国是幅员辽阔，人口众多，
04:46
demographically and geographically,
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在人口统计和地理上都是首屈一指，
04:49
with a population of 1.3 billion people.
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它有13亿人口。
04:52
What we often aren't really aware of
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我们常常没关注的
04:55
is the fact
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事实是
04:57
that China is extremely diverse
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中国也是极其多样化
04:59
and very pluralistic,
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和非常多元化的，
05:01
and in many ways very decentralized.
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在许多方面甚至权力是非常分散化的。
05:03
You can't run a place on this scale simply from Beijing,
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尽管我们认为不能仅从北京中央政府来管理这庞大规模的国家，
05:06
even though we think this to be the case.
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我们以为会是这样，
05:09
It's never been the case.
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但从来都不是这样。
05:13
So this is China, a civilization-state,
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所以这才是中国，一个文明国家，
05:15
rather than a nation-state.
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而不是一个民族国家。
05:17
And what does it mean?
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那这意味着什么呢？
05:19
Well, I think it has all sorts of profound implications.
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那么我想这有很多种深刻的含义。
05:21
I'll give you two quick ones.
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我会给你两个简短介绍。
05:23
The first is that
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第一个是
05:25
the most important political value for the Chinese
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中国人最主要的政治价值观
05:29
is unity,
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是统一，
05:31
is the maintenance
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用来维护
05:33
of Chinese civilization.
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中华文明。
05:35
You know, 2,000 years ago, Europe:
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大家知道，2000年前，欧洲:
05:38
breakdown -- the fragmentation of the Holy Roman Empire.
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灭亡，神圣罗马帝国[罗马帝国]的分裂。
05:41
It divided, and it's remained divided ever since.
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从那时到现在，它不断地分裂。
05:44
China, over the same time period,
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在同一时间段，中国
05:46
went in exactly the opposite direction,
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却有着完全相反的方向，
05:48
very painfully holding this huge civilization,
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非常艰难地维系着这种强大的统一文明，
05:51
civilization-state, together.
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把文明国家统一在一起。
05:54
The second
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第二
05:56
is maybe more prosaic,
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或许是更一般的例子
05:58
which is Hong Kong.
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香港的例子。
06:00
Do you remember the handover of Hong Kong
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大家是否记得香港
06:03
by Britain to China in 1997?
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在1997年从英国政府转交给中国政府？
06:05
You may remember
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大家能记得
06:07
what the Chinese constitutional proposition was.
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中国宪法体制是什么吗？
06:09
One country, two systems.
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一国两制。
06:11
And I'll lay a wager
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我会打赌
06:13
that barely anyone in the West believed them.
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在西方没有人会信这一套。
06:15
"Window dressing.
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“装饰门面。
06:17
When China gets its hands on Hong Kong,
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当中国政府接手香港，
06:19
that won't be the case."
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这不可能。”
06:21
Thirteen years on,
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13年来，
06:23
the political and legal system in Hong Kong
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香港现在的政治和司法体制
06:25
is as different now as it was in 1997.
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和1997年一样，但和中国大陆的有所不同。
06:28
We were wrong. Why were we wrong?
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我们都错了，为什么我们理解错了呢？
06:31
We were wrong because we thought, naturally enough,
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我们错是因为我们理所当然地
06:34
in nation-state ways.
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以民族国家角度思考。
06:36
Think of German unification, 1990.
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想想1990年德国统一。
06:38
What happened?
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发生什么了？
06:40
Well, basically the East was swallowed by the West.
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基本上东德被西德吞噬。
06:42
One nation, one system.
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一个国家，一个体制。
06:44
That is the nation-state mentality.
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这是民族国家的心态。
06:47
But you can't run a country like China,
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但是你不能用此来管理一个像中国这样的，
06:50
a civilization-state,
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一个文明国家，
06:52
on the basis of one civilization, one system.
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它建立在一种文明，一个体制上。
06:55
It doesn't work.
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这行不通。
06:57
So actually the response of China
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的确中国
07:00
to the question of Hong Kong --
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在香港问题上的回应
07:02
as it will be to the question of Taiwan --
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也是在台湾问题上的回应，
07:04
was a natural response:
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它是一个很自然的回应：
07:06
one civilization, many systems.
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一种文明，多种体制。
07:09
Let me offer you another building block
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让我来说另一个基础理由
07:11
to try and understand China --
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来试着了解中国
07:13
maybe not sort of a comfortable one.
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这或许是一个让人不舒服的理由。
07:16
The Chinese have a very, very different
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中国与其他大多数国家对
07:18
conception of race
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民族的概念
07:20
to most other countries.
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有非常，非常不同的理解。
07:23
Do you know,
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大家知道，
07:25
of the 1.3 billion Chinese,
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13亿中国人，
07:28
over 90 percent of them
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超过90%的中国人
07:30
think they belong to the same race,
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认为他们属于同一个民族，
07:33
the Han?
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汉族。
07:35
Now, this is completely different
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目前这与
07:37
from the world's [other] most populous countries.
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世界上其它人口众多的国家截然相反。
07:40
India, the United States,
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印度，美国，
07:42
Indonesia, Brazil --
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印度尼西亚，巴西，
07:45
all of them are multiracial.
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他们都是多民族的。
07:48
The Chinese don't feel like that.
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中国人没有感到过多民族。
07:51
China is only multiracial
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中国仅是
07:53
really at the margins.
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在边界线上有多种少数民族的人。
07:56
So the question is, why?
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那问题是，为什么？
07:58
Well the reason, I think, essentially
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好吧，我认为实质上，原因
08:00
is, again, back to the civilization-state.
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得再次追溯到这文明国家。
08:03
A history of at least 2,000 years,
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至少在2000年的历史长河中，
08:06
a history of conquest, occupation,
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征服，占领，
08:08
absorption, assimilation and so on,
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合并，同化等的历史
08:10
led to the process by which,
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随着时间的推移导致了
08:12
over time, this notion of the Han emerged --
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汉民族这概念的形成过程
08:15
of course, nurtured
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当然，这概念也孕育了
08:17
by a growing and very powerful sense
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增强了汉文化认同感
08:20
of cultural identity.
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也使其变得非常强大，具有深远意义。
08:23
Now the great advantage of this historical experience
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现在这历史经验的巨大优势
08:26
has been that, without the Han,
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呈现出来，没有汉民族，
08:30
China could never have held together.
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中国永远不可能连为一体。
08:32
The Han identity has been the cement
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汉民族文化认同一直
08:35
which has held this country together.
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把这个国家粘合在一起。
08:38
The great disadvantage of it
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它的巨大的劣势
08:40
is that the Han have a very weak conception
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是汉民族对文化差异
08:42
of cultural difference.
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有很少的认知概念。
08:44
They really believe
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他们真正相信
08:47
in their own superiority,
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他们自身汉族文化的优越性，
08:49
and they are disrespectful
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他们不尊重
08:51
of those who are not.
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那些不同民族的差异性。
08:53
Hence their attitude, for example,
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因此， 举个例子，比如他们对待
08:55
to the Uyghurs and to the Tibetans.
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回族和藏族的态度。
08:59
Or let me give you my third building block,
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让我给出第三个基础理由，
09:01
the Chinese state.
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中国式的国家。
09:03
Now the relationship
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现在在中国
09:05
between the state and society in China
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国家和社会间的关系
09:08
is very different from that in the West.
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非常不同于西方的那种关系。
09:12
Now we in the West
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在西方我们
09:14
overwhelmingly seem to think -- in these days at least --
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绝大多数人似乎认为--至少在最近
09:16
that the authority and legitimacy of the state
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国家的权威和合法性
09:20
is a function of democracy.
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是民主的一个功能。
09:23
The problem with this proposition
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有关这问题
09:25
is that the Chinese state
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是中国这个国家
09:29
enjoys more legitimacy
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对中国人民享有更多合法性
09:31
and more authority
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和更多权威性
09:33
amongst the Chinese
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这
09:36
than is true
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比起
09:38
with any Western state.
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任何西方国家，它都是事实。
09:42
And the reason for this
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这个的原因
09:44
is because --
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是因为
09:46
well, there are two reasons, I think.
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我认为有两个理由。
09:48
And it's obviously got nothing to do with democracy,
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中国很明显与民主无关，
09:50
because in our terms the Chinese certainly don't have a democracy.
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因为依我们来看，中国完全称不上是民主。
09:53
And the reason for this is,
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这个理由是，
09:55
firstly, because the state in China
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首先，因为在中国，国家
09:58
is given a very special --
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是一个非常特别有所指的，
10:01
it enjoys a very special significance
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它享有一个非常特别的意义
10:03
as the representative,
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作为中华文明的代表，
10:05
the embodiment and the guardian
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体现
10:08
of Chinese civilization,
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和捍卫者，
10:10
of the civilization-state.
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也是代表中国国家的代表，化身和捍卫者。
10:13
This is as close as China gets
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这也接近中国有种
10:15
to a kind of spiritual role.
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精神象征的作用。
10:19
And the second reason is because,
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第二个理由是因为，
10:21
whereas in Europe
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反之在欧洲，
10:23
and North America,
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北美洲，
10:25
the state's power is continuously challenged --
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国家的权力不断受到挑战。
10:28
I mean in the European tradition,
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我指在欧洲历史传统，
10:30
historically against the church,
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历史上反对教堂，
10:32
against other sectors of the aristocracy,
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反对其它各种贵族阶级，
10:34
against merchants and so on --
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反对商人等等
10:36
for 1,000 years,
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有1000年历史，
10:38
the power of the Chinese state
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中国国家的权力
10:40
has not been challenged.
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从来没被挑战过。
10:42
It's had no serious rivals.
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它没有真正的对手可抗衡。
10:46
So you can see
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所以大家可以看到
10:48
that the way in which power has been constructed in China
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在中国已经建立的权力的方式
10:52
is very different from our experience
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与我们西方历史的经验
10:54
in Western history.
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非常不同。
10:57
The result, by the way,
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顺便提一下，结果
10:59
is that the Chinese have a very different view of the state.
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是中国人看待国家有非常不同的视角。
11:04
Whereas we tend to view it as an intruder,
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鉴于我们倾向于把国家看作是一个入侵者，
11:07
a stranger,
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一个陌生人，
11:10
certainly an organ
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当然是一个组织
11:12
whose powers need to be limited
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它的权力需要被限制
11:15
or defined and constrained,
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或被界定和约束，
11:17
the Chinese don't see the state like that at all.
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中国人可一点都不这样看待国家。
11:19
The Chinese view the state
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中国人视国家
11:22
as an intimate -- not just as an intimate actually,
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作为一个亲密的朋友，也不止是作为一个密友，
11:25
as a member of the family --
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作为家庭里的一员，
11:27
not just in fact as a member of the family,
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事实上也不止是家里一员，
11:29
but as the head of the family,
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而是一家之长，
11:31
the patriarch of the family.
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家庭里的家长。
11:33
This is the Chinese view of the state --
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这是从中国视角来看待国家，
11:36
very, very different to ours.
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和我们的截然不同。
11:38
It's embedded in society in a different kind of way
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根植于中国社会的案例
11:41
to what is the case
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与我们在西方的社会例证
11:43
in the West.
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是完全不同的。
11:45
And I would suggest to you that actually what we are dealing with here,
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我给大家的建议是我们的确要了解
11:48
in the Chinese context,
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在中国背景下，
11:51
is a new kind of paradigm,
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这是一种新的范例，
11:53
which is different from anything
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它与
11:55
we've had to think about in the past.
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我们过去曾想过的范例是不同的。
11:59
Know that China believes in the market and the state.
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要知道中国人相信市场和国有。
12:02
I mean, Adam Smith,
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我指，亚当·斯密
12:04
already writing in the late 18th century, said,
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在18世纪晚期已经著书，说过，
12:07
"The Chinese market is larger and more developed
286
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“中国市场比起欧洲的任何一个市场，
12:09
and more sophisticated
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它都是较大的，较为发达的
12:11
than anything in Europe."
288
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也是较为复杂的。”
12:13
And, apart from the Mao period,
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除了毛泽东时代，
12:15
that has remained more or less the case ever since.
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中国市场大体是如上的例证。
12:17
But this is combined
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但这也是
12:19
with an extremely strong and ubiquitous state.
292
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在一个极强大和无处不在的国家做后盾。
12:23
The state is everywhere in China.
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国家就是中国的一切。
12:25
I mean, it's leading firms --
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我指，它引领着公司，
12:27
many of them are still publicly owned.
295
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他们中的许多公司还是国企所有。
12:30
Private firms, however large they are, like Lenovo,
296
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私有企业，不管它们有多大，像Lenovo联想，
12:33
depend in many ways on state patronage.
297
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在很多方面也依赖于国家的资助。
12:35
Targets for the economy and so on
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国家设置了经济目标
12:37
are set by the state.
299
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等等。
12:39
And the state, of course, its authority flows into lots of other areas --
300
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当然，国家的权威也穿插在许多其他方面
12:41
as we are familiar with --
301
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比如我们所述熟悉的
12:43
with something like the one-child policy.
302
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独生子女政策。
12:45
Moreover, this is a very old state tradition,
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此外，中国是一个非常古老的传统国家，
12:48
a very old tradition of statecraft.
304
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有一个非常古老传统的治国纲领。
12:50
I mean, if you want an illustration of this,
305
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如果你想搞明白这样的例子，
12:53
the Great Wall is one.
306
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长城就是其中一个。
12:55
But this is another, this is the Grand Canal,
307
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但这有另一个，这是（京杭）大运河，
12:57
which was constructed in the first instance
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它起初是
12:59
in the fifth century B.C.
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在公元前5世纪被建造的
13:01
and was finally completed
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在公元7世纪时
13:03
in the seventh century A.D.
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它最终竣工。
13:05
It went for 1,114 miles,
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它有1114英里，
13:09
linking Beijing
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链接北京
13:11
with Hangzhou and Shanghai.
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到杭州和上海。
13:14
So there's a long history
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在中国，
13:16
of extraordinary state infrastructural projects
316
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非凡的国家大型基础建设的历史
13:19
in China,
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由来已久，
13:21
which I suppose helps us to explain what we see today,
318
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我认为这也帮助我们来了解我们今天所看到的，
13:24
which is something like the Three Gorges Dam
319
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例如三峡大坝工程
13:26
and many other expressions
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和许多中国其它的
13:28
of state competence
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国家工程
13:30
within China.
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业绩。
13:32
So there we have three building blocks
323
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所以这3个组成部分
13:35
for trying to understand the difference that is China --
324
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让我们了解中国的不同--
13:38
the civilization-state,
325
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文明国家，
13:41
the notion of race
326
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民族的概念
13:43
and the nature of the state
327
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和国家的属性
13:45
and its relationship to society.
328
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以及它和社会的关系。
13:48
And yet we still insist, by and large,
329
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总地说来，我们还一直坚持
13:51
in thinking that we can understand China
330
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认为我们仅从西方经验的视角
13:55
by simply drawing on Western experience,
331
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就能理解中国
13:58
looking at it through Western eyes,
332
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通过西方人视角
14:01
using Western concepts.
333
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使用西方理念来看透中国。
14:03
If you want to know why
334
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如果你想知道
14:05
we unerringly seem to get China wrong --
335
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我们为什么对中国有错误的认识
14:08
our predictions about what's going to happen to China are incorrect --
336
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我们对在中国发生的事情的预言为什么也是不正确的
14:11
this is the reason.
337
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这上所述就是原因。
14:15
Unfortunately, I think,
338
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不幸的是我认为，
14:17
I have to say that I think
339
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我得说我认为
14:20
attitude towards China
340
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对中国的态度
14:22
is that of a kind of little Westerner mentality.
341
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是西方人的一种心态做崇。
14:25
It's kind of arrogant.
342
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这是傲慢的心态。
14:27
It's arrogant in the sense
343
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就傲慢的心态而言
14:29
that we think that we are best,
344
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我们认为我们是最好的，
14:31
and therefore we have the universal measure.
345
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因此我们有普世的评判标准。
14:35
And secondly, it's ignorant.
346
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其次，这是无知的。
14:37
We refuse to really address
347
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我们拒绝真正承认
14:40
the issue of difference.
348
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问题的不同面。
14:42
You know, there's a very interesting passage
349
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大家知道，美国历史学家保罗·柯文(Paul Cohen)的书里（《在中国发现历史——中国中心观在美国的兴起》）
14:44
in a book by Paul Cohen, the American historian.
350
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有一段非常有意思的话。
14:47
And Paul Cohen argues
351
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保罗·柯文讲到
14:50
that the West thinks of itself
352
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4000
西方认为它自身文化
14:54
as probably the most cosmopolitan
353
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好比是所有文化里最具有国际化的
14:56
of all cultures.
354
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文化。
14:58
But it's not.
355
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但事实不是。
15:00
In many ways,
356
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在许多方面，
15:02
it's the most parochial,
357
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它是最狭隘的，
15:04
because for 200 years,
358
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3000
因为200年来，
15:07
the West has been so dominant in the world
359
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3000
西方一直主宰世界
15:10
that it's not really needed
360
895000
2000
它不必
15:12
to understand other cultures,
361
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3000
去了解其他文化，
15:15
other civilizations.
362
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2000
其他文明。
15:17
Because, at the end of the day,
363
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因为，到头来，
15:19
it could, if necessary by force,
364
904000
3000
必要时可动武，
15:22
get its own way.
365
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彰显其自身文化。
15:24
Whereas those cultures --
366
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2000
反之这些其它文化
15:26
virtually the rest of the world, in fact,
367
911000
3000
几乎在世界其它地区的，事实上，
15:29
which have been in a far weaker position, vis-a-vis the West --
368
914000
3000
面对西方文化，它们一直处于相对较弱的地位，
15:32
have been thereby forced to understand the West,
369
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3000
从而也一直被迫来了解西方文化，
15:35
because of the West's presence in those societies.
370
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3000
因为西方文化在这些社会有影响力的原因。
15:38
And therefore, they are, as a result,
371
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3000
所以，结果是它们
15:41
more cosmopolitan in many ways than the West.
372
926000
3000
在许多方面比起西方更国际化。
15:44
I mean, take the question of East Asia.
373
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2000
我们来谈谈东亚的问题。
15:46
East Asia: Japan, Korea, China, etc. --
374
931000
3000
东亚：日本，韩国，中国等等--
15:49
a third of the world's population lives there.
375
934000
2000
世界上三分之一人口住在那边，
15:51
Now the largest economic region in the world.
376
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2000
现在是全球最大的经济区域。
15:53
And I'll tell you now,
377
938000
2000
现在我会告诉你，
15:55
that East Asianers, people from East Asia,
378
940000
2000
东亚人，东亚的人们，
15:57
are far more knowledgeable
379
942000
2000
对西方的认识程度
15:59
about the West
380
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2000
比起
16:01
than the West is about East Asia.
381
946000
4000
西方国家对东亚的认识程度要深的多。
16:05
Now this point is very germane, I'm afraid,
382
950000
3000
现在我恐怕这个观点到现在还是非常
16:08
to the present.
383
953000
2000
有影响的。
16:10
Because what's happening? Back to that chart at the beginning,
384
955000
3000
因为发生的变化吗？回到开始的图表--
16:13
the Goldman Sachs chart.
385
958000
2000
高盛投资公司的图表。
16:15
What is happening
386
960000
2000
当前发生的
16:17
is that, very rapidly in historical terms,
387
962000
3000
是，在历史上非常迅速，
16:20
the world is being driven
388
965000
3000
世界不是
16:23
and shaped,
389
968000
2000
被老旧的发达国家
16:25
not by the old developed countries,
390
970000
2000
所驱动和塑造，
16:27
but by the developing world.
391
972000
2000
而是被发展中新兴国家。
16:29
We've seen this
392
974000
2000
我们看到这个
16:31
in terms of the G20
393
976000
2000
G20二十国集团
16:33
usurping very rapidly the position of the G7,
394
978000
3000
它非常迅速地抢占G7七国集团
16:36
or the G8.
395
981000
3000
或者G8八国集团的地位。
16:40
And there are two consequences of this.
396
985000
3000
同时这有两个结果。
16:43
First, the West
397
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2000
第一，西方
16:45
is rapidly losing
398
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2000
正快速地失去
16:47
its influence in the world.
399
992000
2000
它在全球的影响。
16:49
There was a dramatic illustration of this actually a year ago --
400
994000
3000
一年前就有一个戏剧性的例证证明这个观点
16:52
Copenhagen, climate change conference.
401
997000
2000
哥本哈根，气候变化会议。
16:54
Europe was not at the final negotiating table.
402
999000
2000
欧洲没有出现在最后讨论谈判桌上。
16:56
When did that last happen?
403
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2000
上次欧洲置之事外是在什么时候？
16:58
I would wager it was probably about 200 years ago.
404
1003000
3000
我敢打赌约在200年前也发生同样的事。
17:01
And that is what is going to happen in the future.
405
1006000
3000
在未来这还会发生。
17:04
And the second implication
406
1009000
2000
第二个含义
17:06
is that the world will inevitably, as a consequence,
407
1011000
3000
是世界将不可避免地
17:09
become increasingly unfamiliar to us,
408
1014000
4000
急剧变化，对我们来说很陌生，
17:13
because it'll be shaped by cultures and experiences and histories
409
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3000
因为世界被我们所不熟悉的或者不精通的文化，
17:16
that we are not really familiar with,
410
1021000
3000
经验和历史
17:19
or conversant with.
411
1024000
2000
所重塑。
17:21
And at last, I'm afraid -- take Europe;
412
1026000
2000
最后，我恐怕，拿欧洲来说，
17:23
America is slightly different --
413
1028000
2000
美国是有点不同的
17:25
but Europeans by and large, I have to say,
414
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3000
但大体上，我得说欧洲人
17:28
are ignorant,
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是无知的，
17:31
are unaware
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他们没有意识到
17:33
about the way the world is changing.
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世界上正在发生的改变。
17:36
Some people -- I've got an English friend in China,
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有人，我有一个在中国的英国朋友，
17:39
and he said, "The continent is sleepwalking into oblivion."
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他说，“旧大陆在梦游似的会被遗忘。”
17:44
Well, maybe that's true,
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好吧，恐怕是对的，
17:46
maybe that's an exaggeration.
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恐怕这有点夸张。
17:48
But there's another problem which goes along with this --
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但另一问题随之产生
17:51
that Europe is increasingly out of touch with the world --
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欧洲正在日益与世界脱节
17:54
and that is a sort of
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这是一种
17:57
loss of a sense of the future.
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对未来感的缺失。
17:59
I mean, Europe once, of course, once commanded the future
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当然，我指欧洲曾自信地
18:02
in its confidence.
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引领未来。
18:04
Take the 19th century, for example.
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拿19世纪来举例。
18:07
But this, alas, is no longer true.
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唉，但这已经风光不在。
18:10
If you want to feel the future, if you want to taste the future,
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如果你想感知未来，如果你想感触未来，
18:13
try China -- there's old Confucius.
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看看中国，这是古代的孔子。
18:16
This is a railway station
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这是一个火车站
18:18
the likes of which you've never seen before.
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这是你以前从未看到过的。
18:20
It doesn't even look like a railway station.
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它看上去不像是火车站。
18:22
This is the new [Wuhan] railway station
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这是为了高速列车行驶而新建的
18:24
for the high-speed trains.
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广州火车站。
18:26
China already has a bigger network
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中国已经比起全球其他国家
18:28
than any other country in the world
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有更多的铁路网
18:30
and will soon have more than all the rest of the world put together.
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不久就会超过全球铁路网总和。
18:34
Or take this: now this is an idea,
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举个例子：现在这是个想法，
18:36
but it's an idea to be tried out shortly
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但这想法不久就会
18:39
in a suburb of Beijing.
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在北京郊区实现。
18:41
Here you have a megabus,
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这儿会有一辆超级公交，
18:44
on the upper deck carries about 2,000 people.
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在公交上层会承载2000人。
18:47
It travels on rails
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它会沿着郊区的路上轨道
18:49
down a suburban road,
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行驶，
18:51
and the cars travel underneath it.
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车辆可以在它下面穿行。
18:54
And it does speeds of up to about 100 miles an hour.
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它的时速可达每小时约100英里。
18:57
Now this is the way things are going to move,
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现在这个就是未来交通方式，
19:00
because China has a very specific problem,
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因为中国有非常具体问题，
19:02
which is different from Europe
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它有别于欧洲
19:04
and different from the United States:
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和美国。
19:06
China has huge numbers of people and no space.
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中国人口众多，但很少空间。
19:09
So this is a solution to a situation
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所以当
19:11
where China's going to have
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中国将会有
19:13
many, many, many cities
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越来越多的城市
19:15
over 20 million people.
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超过2000万人口时，这会是应对这种情况的解决方案。
19:17
Okay, so how would I like to finish?
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好吧，那么我会怎样来做结论呢？
19:20
Well, what should our attitude be
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那么，我们应该以怎样态度
19:23
towards this world
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来面对这个
19:26
that we see
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呈现在我们面前
19:28
very rapidly developing
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飞速发展的
19:30
before us?
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世界？
19:33
I think there will be good things about it and there will be bad things about it.
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我认为关于此事，这会有好的方面也会有坏的方面。
19:36
But I want to argue, above all,
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但首先，我想指出
19:38
a big-picture positive for this world.
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这世界所展现的是一幅积极正面的蓝图。
19:43
For 200 years,
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200年来，
19:45
the world was essentially governed
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世界基本上
19:51
by a fragment of the human population.
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是被人类的一部分人所管辖。
19:55
That's what Europe and North America represented.
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这是以欧洲和北美为代表的。
19:59
The arrival of countries
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新兴国家的崛起
20:01
like China and India --
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像中国和印度
20:03
between them 38 percent of the world's population --
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它们占世界人口的百分之三十八
20:05
and others like Indonesia and Brazil and so on,
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和其他国家如印度尼西亚和巴西等等，
20:11
represent the most important single act
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他们代表了在过去200年间最重要的人类活动
20:14
of democratization
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民主化
20:16
in the last 200 years.
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进程。
20:18
Civilizations and cultures,
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曾被
20:20
which had been ignored, which had no voice,
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忽视，没有发言权的文明和文化，
20:23
which were not listened to, which were not known about,
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人们对此不了解，没听说过的文明和文化，
20:25
will have a different sort
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它们将会在这世界上以与众不同地
20:27
of representation in this world.
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声音代言它们自身。
20:30
As humanists, we must welcome, surely,
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作为人道主义者，我们必定要欢迎
20:32
this transformation,
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这种转型。
20:34
and we will have to learn
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我们还得学习
20:36
about these civilizations.
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这些文明。
20:38
This big ship here
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这儿的大船
20:41
was the one sailed in by Zheng He
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是在15世纪早期郑和
20:43
in the early 15th century
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下西洋时
20:45
on his great voyages
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航行的船，
20:47
around the South China Sea, the East China Sea
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它穿过中国东海，南海
20:50
and across the Indian Ocean to East Africa.
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然后穿行印度洋到达东非。
20:53
The little boat in front of it
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这前面的小船
20:57
was the one in which, 80 years later,
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是80年后，
20:59
Christopher Columbus crossed the Atlantic.
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克里斯托弗·哥伦布穿行大西洋的船只。
21:02
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
21:04
Or, look carefully
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或仔细看看
21:06
at this silk scroll
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这幅
21:08
made by ZhuZhou
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ZhuZhou朱周（音译）
21:11
in 1368.
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在1368年创作的绢轴国画。
21:14
I think they're playing golf.
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我认为他们在打高尔夫。
21:16
Christ, the Chinese even invented golf.
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上帝啊，竟然是中国人发明了高尔夫球。
21:19
Welcome to the future. Thank you.
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欢迎来到未来。谢谢。
21:22
(Applause)
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（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Martin Jacques - Writer, columnistMartin Jacques is the author of "When China Rules the World," and a columnist for the Guardian and New Statesman. He was a co-founder of the think tank Demos.
Why you should listen
Martin Jacques is the author of When China Rules the World: The Rise of the Middle Kingdom and the End of the Western World. He is a Senior Fellow at the Department of Politics and International Studies, Cambridge University, and a Visiting Professor at Tsinghua University, Beijing. He is also a non-resident Fellow at the Transatlantic Academy, Washington DC. He is a columnist for the Guardian and the New Statesman.
His interest in East Asia began in 1993 with a holiday in China, Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaysia. After that, he found every reason or excuse he could find to spend time in the region, be it personal, for newspaper articles or television programs. In 1977, he became editor of Marxism Today, a post he held for fourteen years, transforming what was an obscure and dull journal into the most influential political publication in Britain, read and respected on the right and left alike.
In 1991, he closed Marxism Today and in 1994 became the deputy editor of the Independent newspaper, a post he held until 1996. In 1993 he co-founded the think-tank Demos.
Martin Jacques | Speaker | TED.com